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Sunak is just like the Grand Old Duke of York? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthingbutmygodi'mbloodysharp.
    He is also a credit to Wales
    Lol! Love the accent. Can you tell which part? I lived in Cardiff for a while and wasn't a fan of the local brogue, but I love the sound of Pembrokeshire voices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    Phil said:

    What is it with image uploads & vanilla? The thumbnailing appears to have gone beserk.

    We're working on a fix.

    In short PBers are posting too many pics and it is causing rendering issues.
    One imagines that the distribution of number of pics posted by PBer is very skewed.
    Indeed.

    We're looking at one embedded pic per calendar day limit per poster.
    Imagine the self restraint required to choose only one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    Has she said "I'm the real victim here."
    Nearly.

    Her argument boils down to 'well the Post Office is a bloody big organisation, as Chief Exec I cannot be expected to know everything, except the things that put me in a good light.'
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    Has she said "I'm the real victim here."
    She has tried the "I was too trusting" defence.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Jeepers,she's being destroyed.

    It's like watching a slow-motion car crash. Not sure I can watch much more.

    Several Thick Of It quotes spring to mind (e.g. "Like watching a lion **** a sheep, but in a bad way."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?

    Yes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just
    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just now in PMQs in response to Stephen Flynn. He said it would be in the second half of this year.
    Although as noted above, July 4 is in the second half (and more realistic even if dissolution was announced today).

    But at least as notable is that the above quote also rules out January 2025.
    It's hard to see the rationale for July 4th.
    Flights take off, before boats increase in summer
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059
    AlsoLei said:

    Jeffrey Donaldson not standing at next election

    Is he the sitting MP?
    Astonishingly, yes. Still out on bail, with a committal hearing due in early July.

    I wouldn't expect him to be showing up for work any time soon, mind.
    It’s the ol’ innocent until proven guilty thing. Were he to be found guilty and receive a custodial sentence of >1 year, he would cease to be an MP. But nothing happens while you’ve been charged and are awaiting trial.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?

    Yes.
    "Vennells' response - that she has no recollection - doesn't seem to be accepted by those watching on. There are more than a few jeers, with one man laughing enough that breaks out into a brief coughing fit."

    BBC blog
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Before the general election the Finance (No. 2) Bill needs to be enacted (otherwise no Income Tax can be collected for this tax year).

    So the election will not be 27th June.

    If the ducks are in a row, presumably the bills are too?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited May 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?

    Yes.

    [Sorry, too slow!]
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jeepers,she's being destroyed.

    It's like watching a slow-motion car crash. Not sure I can watch much more.

    Several Thick Of It quotes spring to mind (e.g. "Like watching a lion **** a sheep, but in a bad way."
    This one.

    Who was it that did your media training? Myra Hindley? It's terrible! All these hands all over the place! You were like a sweaty octopus trying to unhook a bra! It was like watching John Leslie at work!
    "Even the cameramen are laughing"
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?

    She’s definitely attempting to invoke implausible deniability
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    I don't understand how she got the job in the first place. She's clearly not the right person to run a large organisation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthingbutmygodi'mbloodysharp.
    Today has shown why lawyers are the best of humanity.

    Sir Wyn and Jason Beer have gently destroyed Paula Vennell's arguments.
    They have - but she's still trying to set up the basis for an incompetence not malice defence, I think ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,355

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    Has she said "I'm the real victim here."
    Nearly.

    Her argument boils down to 'well the Post Office is a bloody big organisation, as Chief Exec I cannot be expected to know everything, except the things that put me in a good light.'
    Of course. How is a Chief Executive supposed to know what is being done in her name?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand how she got the job in the first place. She's clearly not the right person to run a large organisation.

    I wouldn’t trust her to run a bath.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Nigelb said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthingbutmygodi'mbloodysharp.
    Today has shown why lawyers are the best of humanity.

    Sir Wyn and Jason Beer have gently destroyed Paula Vennell's arguments.
    They have - but she's still trying to set up the basis for an incompetence not malice defence, I think ?
    It’s not working.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Sunak knows that inflation will be heading back up strongly by August 2024, when the July 2024 CPI is published. That's because of energy price base effects in the CPI (the old Energy Price Guarantee of £2,500 per average household lasted until June 2023 in the base).

    Nonetheless I think that despite the inflation window, can he really dare to hold an election at this point, with his party being in deficit to over 20% in the polls?

    One way or another, a decision on a July election needs to be taken now. I think he will tell them that in his view it's best to wait until late Autumn or Winter, but seek their view nonetheless. So today's meeting could be all about getting collective Cabinet buy-in to a decision to go long, in the hope that something will turn up and rely (that and an absolutely appalling out of date electoral register.) Go around the table and ask each member whether they should go now or wait, that sort of thing.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Vennells claiming she didn't know the Post Office undertook its own prosecutions despite being CEO?

    "Not until 2012"

    Whereas the evidence shows that she should have known back in 2008.

    "I should have known" is a regular mantra.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    "Unknown unknowns" check.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    edited May 22
    Worth noting that July 4 and June 27 are both slap in the middle of Euro 2024, which I suppose might be a pro or con.

    June 27 being between the group stage and second round.

    July 4 is between the second round and quarter-finals.

    Scotland's historic record in major finals suggests a low probability of still being in the tournament by either date but there's always a first time for anything.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    PO Inquiry live feed now showing "Broadcast Suspended" immediately following second morning break.
    Has Rev Mrs Vennells walked out?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just
    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just now in PMQs in response to Stephen Flynn. He said it would be in the second half of this year.
    Although as noted above, July 4 is in the second half (and more realistic even if dissolution was announced today).

    But at least as notable is that the above quote also rules out January 2025.
    It's hard to see the rationale for July 4th.
    That’s simple Rishi set a number of points that he promised to fix, inflation was one and that’s the only success he can point at now or at any point in the next six months

    Hence run now before something else bad happens.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    Has she said "I'm the real victim here."
    Nearly.

    Her argument boils down to 'well the Post Office is a bloody big organisation, as Chief Exec I cannot be expected to know everything, except the things that put me in a good light.'
    Of course. How is a Chief Executive supposed to know what is being done in her name?
    I know. Where will this end?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand how she got the job in the first place. She's clearly not the right person to run a large organisation.

    The government and board were desperate to inject private sector "talent" into what was seen as a falling organisation. That most of them had no idea what they were getting into didn't seem to matter
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    And massive selected memory syndrome.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just
    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just now in PMQs in response to Stephen Flynn. He said it would be in the second half of this year.
    Although as noted above, July 4 is in the second half (and more realistic even if dissolution was announced today).

    But at least as notable is that the above quote also rules out January 2025.
    It's hard to see the rationale for July 4th.
    That’s simple Rishi set a number of points that he promised to fix, inflation was one and that’s the only success he can point at now or at any point in the next six months

    Hence run now before something else bad happens.
    i.e. Inflation starts going back up, which will happen in the CPI figures published in August 2024. See below.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    ..now back again. JB opening up a new line
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Sky News has been interviewing some victims of the scandal. One has said that this was “an opportunity for her to show humanity” but they were not “real tears” and described it as “a mega-performance” and “lies from the start”.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    And massive selected memory syndrome.

    I was asking my wife about this as she used to have to go to employment tribunals as an HR Manager.

    Her legal advisers advice was that she should never lie to a tribunal and be as truthful as possible but if she could not recall, or was confused about events, to simply say she could not remember.

    Of course good advice but an easy cop out too.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    edited May 22

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just
    viewcode said:

    Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...

    Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
    Just now in PMQs in response to Stephen Flynn. He said it would be in the second half of this year.
    Although as noted above, July 4 is in the second half (and more realistic even if dissolution was announced today).

    But at least as notable is that the above quote also rules out January 2025.
    It's hard to see the rationale for July 4th.
    That’s simple Rishi set a number of points that he promised to fix, inflation was one and that’s the only success he can point at now or at any point in the next six months

    Hence run now before something else bad happens.
    i.e. Inflation starts going back up, which will happen in the CPI figures published in August 2024. See below.
    Yes headline inflation will fall further this time next month due to base effects. And then rise slightly thereafter.

    July the betting favourite still.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Martin Lewis
    @MartinSLewis
    ·
    35m
    Wow the rumours a general election will be announced today seem to be getting stronger and stronger.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    And massive selected memory syndrome.

    I was asking my wife about this as she used to have to go to employment tribunals as an HR Manager.

    Her legal advisers advice was that she should never lie to a tribunal and be as truthful as possible but if she could not recall, or was confused about events, to simply say she could not remember.

    Of course good advice but an easy cop out too.
    Sure. But when you repeatedly remember that which helps you, and repeatedly can't remember that which wouldn't, it looks a bit suss.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    The idea that England are expected to win the Euros is BS. No team is odds on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Martin Lewis
    @MartinSLewis
    ·
    35m
    Wow the rumours a general election will be announced today seem to be getting stronger and stronger.

    1.7 for july now
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,355

    Sunak knows that inflation will be heading back up strongly by August 2024, when the July 2024 CPI is published. That's because of energy price base effects in the CPI (the old Energy Price Guarantee of £2,500 per average household lasted until June 2023 in the base).

    Nonetheless I think that despite the inflation window, can he really dare to hold an election at this point, with his party being in deficit to over 20% in the polls?

    One way or another, a decision on a July election needs to be taken now. I think he will tell them that in his view it's best to wait until late Autumn or Winter, but seek their view nonetheless. So today's meeting could be all about getting collective Cabinet buy-in to a decision to go long, in the hope that something will turn up and rely (that and an absolutely appalling out of date electoral register.) Go around the table and ask each member whether they should go now or wait, that sort of thing.


    OTOH, growth should be pretty good for the rest of the year, interest rates will be cut, and wage rises will be running well above inflation. None of that guarantees an improvement, but it strengthens the case for waiting. IMHO.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    Scarpia said:

    PO Inquiry live feed now showing "Broadcast Suspended" immediately following second morning break.
    Has Rev Mrs Vennells walked out?

    No
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    edited May 22

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    And massive selected memory syndrome.

    I was asking my wife about this as she used to have to go to employment tribunals as an HR Manager.

    Her legal advisers advice was that she should never lie to a tribunal and be as truthful as possible but if she could not recall, or was confused about events, to simply say she could not remember.

    Of course good advice but an easy cop out too.
    Sure. But when you repeatedly remember that which helps you, and repeatedly can't remember that which wouldn't, it looks a bit suss.
    Yup, I agree. Hence my last sentence. It does give people the chance to just cop out and not account for their deeds too.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Martin Lewis
    @MartinSLewis
    ·
    35m
    Wow the rumours a general election will be announced today seem to be getting stronger and stronger.

    1.7 for july now
    Chris Mason, on the BBC website, seems to be getting quite interested in this rumour.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 774
    Perhaps they have just calculated that there would be no room for tax cuts in the autumn, so that they need to go now?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    And massive selected memory syndrome.

    I was asking my wife about this as she used to have to go to employment tribunals as an HR Manager.

    Her legal advisers advice was that she should never lie to a tribunal and be as truthful as possible but if she could not recall, or was confused about events, to simply say she could not remember.

    Of course good advice but an easy cop out too.
    Sure. But when you repeatedly remember that which helps you, and repeatedly can't remember that which wouldn't, it looks a bit suss.
    The least worst strategy I expect
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited May 22

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Scarpia said:

    ..now back again. JB opening up a new line

    Will she bottle Beer?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    More memory lapses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,634
    -
    Ghedebrav said:

    Before the general election the Finance (No. 2) Bill needs to be enacted (otherwise no Income Tax can be collected for this tax year).

    So the election will not be 27th June.

    If the ducks are in a row, presumably the bills are too?
    It’ll be canard for Sunak.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    She has probably forgotten who "the others" were.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    If it is July4th, how many Tory MPs do we expect will turn up for it?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The Inquiry should have offered PV the more dignified way out - running across a minefield dressed as a clown on primetime TV.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    It's hardly Usyk-Fury, More Butterbean-Bart Gun at Brawl for All.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    If it is July4th, how many Tory MPs do we expect will turn up for it?

    265 of the current crop ca
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262

    Been at the Met Police briefing on Grenfell investigation:

    - Charging files will not go to prosecutors until 2026
    - Decision on charges not until end of 2026
    - Trials will not start for at least six months after that

    Will be over a decade after fire before anyone is in court


    https://x.com/PeteApps/status/1793233103978217700

    Why would the process for this be any different to any other such scandal?

    Some say insanity is doing the same thing, repeatedly, and expecting different result.

    I say that @Cyclefree should create a template for headers on scandals and corruption and save on keyboard wear.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    It's hardly Usyk-Fury, More Butterbean-Bart Gun at Brawl for All.
    It’s another of those Mike Tyson against no hoper fights I mentioned last week
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    This seems a spectacularly unlikely reaction, had it been true she was unaware of the PO's prosecutorial capacity and procedures at the time.

    ..Vennells says she personally spoke to John Scott, the Post Office’s former head of security, after the feedback from Second Sight and the mediation scheme.

    “When you spoke to John Scott about this, did you say John, I’ve been in the organisation for five or six years, I didn’t know you had a team of 100 people that were investigating up and down the country sub-postmasters and sending them to prison. How come I didn’t know?” Beer asks.

    Laughter can be heard in the inquiry room as Beer poses the question.

    She says she spoke to him seriously about the culture at the Post Office and that the sub-postmasters were really important to us....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    MattW said:

    For @TSE FPT:

    How did I miss this?

    Paula Vennells: Ex-Post Office boss was shortlisted to be Bishop of London

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67923190.amp

    You don't read the comments at PB? :smile:

    We've mentioned it several times.

    She wasn't in with much of a chance - most complex Bishopric in England, no Episcopal experience, and up against a former Chief Nursing Officer of England.
    You are surely not suggesting they select on merit? How odd.
    I'm not being drawn into a conversation around how Bishops are selected in the CofE.

    It's 1.02pm, so I only have 11:58 hours available before I turn into a pumpkin at midnight, and it is not long enough time. :wink:
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    It's hardly Usyk-Fury, More Butterbean-Bart Gun at Brawl for All.
    I'd like you to know that I very much appreciate this reference.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    "Stop, she's already dead!"

    On second thoughts...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    July is in the second half of the year
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Perhaps they have just calculated that there would be no room for tax cuts in the autumn, so that they need to go now?

    The rumours started yesterday, when people were still expecting a larger decrease in inflation, though...

    I agree that sooner rather than later is better for the country, and probably also better for the Tory party - but I can't understand why they would have suddenly decided that July is the best date.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    Sean_F said:

    Sunak knows that inflation will be heading back up strongly by August 2024, when the July 2024 CPI is published. That's because of energy price base effects in the CPI (the old Energy Price Guarantee of £2,500 per average household lasted until June 2023 in the base).

    Nonetheless I think that despite the inflation window, can he really dare to hold an election at this point, with his party being in deficit to over 20% in the polls?

    One way or another, a decision on a July election needs to be taken now. I think he will tell them that in his view it's best to wait until late Autumn or Winter, but seek their view nonetheless. So today's meeting could be all about getting collective Cabinet buy-in to a decision to go long, in the hope that something will turn up and rely (that and an absolutely appalling out of date electoral register.) Go around the table and ask each member whether they should go now or wait, that sort of thing.


    OTOH, growth should be pretty good for the rest of the year, interest rates will be cut, and wage rises will be running well above inflation. None of that guarantees an improvement, but it strengthens the case for waiting. IMHO.
    Could be true but who will care? 'Pretty good growth' for this Govt equals a disaster under most others. It just won't feed through in time to influence voters. The 'feel-good factor' is going to be very hard to conjure up once we are into October. Even more difficult in November. Totally impossible in January.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    Yes, because even the most minor witnesses usually get a whole day, and I expect the other lawyers will probably spend the final day asking their questions.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    From twitter - not me but it’s a better explanation than anything else

    Watching Paula Vennels at Post Office inquiry. Scandal didn’t start on her watch. She could have fixed it. Says as CEO I didn’t know, but stacks of evidence disproves it. Fixing it would have affected profitability. That would have affected her bonus. Cover up for financial gain
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    edited May 22
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand how she got the job in the first place. She's clearly not the right person to run a large organisation.

    Her response to a problem was to bury it as deeply as possible, and not know very much. She is quite good at awarding large salaries and bonuses to Proper People.

    These are the ideal characteristics for the leaders of major organisations. According to the leadership of large organisation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    20m
    If Rishi Sunak doesn’t call an election today it will be up there with Callaghan in ‘78, Brown ‘07 and Chelsea ‘24 for bottle jobs…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited May 22
    AlsoLei said:

    Perhaps they have just calculated that there would be no room for tax cuts in the autumn, so that they need to go now?

    The rumours started yesterday, when people were still expecting a larger decrease in inflation, though...

    I agree that sooner rather than later is better for the country, and probably also better for the Tory party - but I can't understand why they would have suddenly decided that July is the best date.
    If the July inflation figure is on the rise July 4th avoids that. If there are no Rwanda flights due to Nor'Irn they can still be promised as imminent.

    That said Sunak needs his two year anniversary legacy, and better still the history books recording Rishi Sunak, PM from 2022 to 2025.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Nigelb said:

    This seems a spectacularly unlikely reaction, had it been true she was unaware of the PO's prosecutorial capacity and procedures at the time.

    ..Vennells says she personally spoke to John Scott, the Post Office’s former head of security, after the feedback from Second Sight and the mediation scheme.

    “When you spoke to John Scott about this, did you say John, I’ve been in the organisation for five or six years, I didn’t know you had a team of 100 people that were investigating up and down the country sub-postmasters and sending them to prison. How come I didn’t know?” Beer asks.

    Laughter can be heard in the inquiry room as Beer poses the question.

    She says she spoke to him seriously about the culture at the Post Office and that the sub-postmasters were really important to us....

    The met should interrupt the inquiry and arrest her and a few others for perjury.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited May 22
    Paula Vennells is now saying that she responded to complaints from postmasters that came in by email, but not those complaints that came by post.

    Remind me what organisation she ran again?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Paula Vennells is now saying that she responded to complaints from postmasters that came in by email, but not those complaints that came by post.

    Remind me what organisation she ran again?

    She was a woman thrown by the all-Mail culture.

    (She wouldn't, would she?)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,355

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    20m
    If Rishi Sunak doesn’t call an election today it will be up there with Callaghan in ‘78, Brown ‘07 and Chelsea ‘24 for bottle jobs…

    Neither, however, was a good option. The best that Callaghan could hope for was a hung Parliament, and the best that Brown could hope for was a very small majority.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    For @TSE FPT:

    How did I miss this?

    Paula Vennells: Ex-Post Office boss was shortlisted to be Bishop of London

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67923190.amp

    You don't read the comments at PB? :smile:

    We've mentioned it several times.

    She wasn't in with much of a chance - most complex Bishopric in England, no Episcopal experience, and up against a former Chief Nursing Officer of England.
    You are surely not suggesting they select on merit? How odd.
    I'm not being drawn into a conversation around how Bishops are selected in the CofE.

    It's 1.02pm, so I only have 11:58 hours available before I turn into a pumpkin at midnight, and it is not long enough time. :wink:
    It's 10:58, shurely?

    #pedanticbetting.com
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    For @TSE FPT:

    How did I miss this?

    Paula Vennells: Ex-Post Office boss was shortlisted to be Bishop of London

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67923190.amp

    You don't read the comments at PB? :smile:

    We've mentioned it several times.

    She wasn't in with much of a chance - most complex Bishopric in England, no Episcopal experience, and up against a former Chief Nursing Officer of England.
    You are surely not suggesting they select on merit? How odd.
    I'm not being drawn into a conversation around how Bishops are selected in the CofE.

    It's 1.02pm, so I only have 11:58 hours available before I turn into a pumpkin at midnight, and it is not long enough time. :wink:
    The relevant episode of "Yes Prime Minister" provides all the details one might require.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    General Election Date Announced

    "2nd half of 2024"

    January 2025 nailed on
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Yes, I do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Yes, I do.
    Where did the fake bees come in ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    It's hardly Usyk-Fury, More Butterbean-Bart Gun at Brawl for All.
    It’s another of those Mike Tyson against no hoper fights I mentioned last week
    You should look up Butterbean-Bart Gunn from Brawl for All.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,355

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Yes, I do.
    It was an excellent read.

    Wilson OTOH, made the mistake of going too early.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    AlsoLei said:

    Perhaps they have just calculated that there would be no room for tax cuts in the autumn, so that they need to go now?

    The rumours started yesterday, when people were still expecting a larger decrease in inflation, though...

    I agree that sooner rather than later is better for the country, and probably also better for the Tory party - but I can't understand why they would have suddenly decided that July is the best date.
    Pesto, so usual caveats, but...

    There is only one reason why I take gossip of an earlier election - 4 July or even late September- more seriously than I have taken previous rumours, which is that the Treasury is now clear that there is zero fiscal room for £10bn in tax cuts to be announced at a Chancellor event in the autumn - which was supposed to be the benign precursor to a November election (today’s worse-than expected-borrowing figures are only some of the data which has emptied the kitty)? So if there is no actual giveaway in September, why not hold the election earlier? For more on this, listen to tomorrow’s Rest is Money podcast conversation with brilliant @TorstenBell

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1793251625286471994

    Maybe Sunak has concluded that the game is up, that there's no Cunning Plan to save him, that Things Can Only Get A Lot Worse.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,284
    edited May 22
    Cui bono from a July election?

    Doesn't make sense. Far better to wait til the last moment and pray for a black swan or the boats to stop coming coz Rwanda

    As I have said before, turkeys don't vote for Christmas to be brought forward, this seems to be exactly that
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited May 22

    I predict parliament will dissolve May 30th or June 4th for a July 11th election. He'll recall them from Whitsun to wash up.

    There's the Whitsun recess from 23rd of May until 4th of June, so it would have to be the latter, surely? Recall without some sort of national emergency just look desperate.

    (Which makes July 11th the most likely July date to my mind, but it'd make things very awkward in NI. Not that Sunak gives a fuck about that, of course...)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Nice story but 1) had Banks played Brazil would have propbaly still won the world cup, 2) had England won the world cup, Heath would have still won the election (does football really influence voting behaviour to any significant event?) 3) Had Heath stood down in as LOTO in late 1971, Powell would not have become Tory leader.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945
    Leon said:

    Cui bono from a July election?

    Doesn't make sense. Far better to wait til the last moment and pray for a black swan or the boats to stop coming coz Rwanda

    As I have said before, turkeys fon't vote for Christmas to be brought forward, this seems to be exactly that

    Maybe Sunak has another job lined up and wants to go now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Cui bono from a July election?

    Doesn't make sense. Far better to wait til the last moment and pray for a black swan or the boats to stop coming coz Rwanda

    As I have said before, turkeys fon't vote for Christmas to be brought forward, this seems to be exactly that

    Maybe Sunak has another job lined up and wants to go now.
    When is start of term for his daughters' new schools in California?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Calling an election when you're 20% in the polls would be a brave move.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited May 22
    MP Matt Warman on WATO saying there is no election announcement today.

    He says Rishi needs time for the excellent economic news to filter through. "We don't need the uncertainty of a General Election".

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Lord Puffy Face of Chipping Norton has cut a trip short to get back for cabinet....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @RobDotHutton

    JOURNALESE COMMITTEE EMERGENCY RULING: Election speculation can now be described as "febrile". Please amend earlier descriptions of it as "mounting".
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 698
    eristdoof said:

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Nice story but 1) had Banks played Brazil would have propbaly still won the world cup, 2) had England won the world cup, Heath would have still won the election (does football really influence voting behaviour to any significant event?) 3) Had Heath stood down in as LOTO in late 1971, Powell would not have become Tory leader.
    Agreed although football is probably just as likely to affect voting intentions as a set of inflation figures is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    AlsoLei said:

    I predict parliament will dissolve May 30th or June 4th for a July 11th election. He'll recall them from Whitsun to wash up.

    There's the Whitsun recess from 23rd of May until 4th of June, so it would have to be the latter, surely? Recall without some sort of national emergency just look desperate.

    (Which makes July 11th the most likely July date to my mind, but it'd make things very awkward in NI. Not that Sunak gives a fuck about that, of course...)
    Why would it be awkward in Northern Ireland? The usual stuff will happen on the Twelfth as happens every year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @ITVJoel

    Treasury source dismisses rumours about Jeremy Hunt.

    “It’s nonsense, he’s 100% not resigning”.

    Source adds: “he’s 100% standing”, making the rumour about an election feel more solid!
This discussion has been closed.