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Sunak is just like the Grand Old Duke of York? – politicalbetting.com

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  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    Waiting for something good to happen doesn't make sense. Make a list of all the "good" things that could happen between now and an election that would actually improve Tory polling, and compare that to a list of all the "bad" things that could happen. Anyone choosing an election date based only on such an exercise would call one immediately.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    MP Matt Warman on WATO saying there is no election announcement today.

    He says Rishi needs time for the excellent economic news to filter through. "We don't need the uncertainty of a General Election".

    I think he counts as nowhere near the inside of the tent
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    MP Matt Warman on WATO saying there is no election announcement today.

    He says Rishi needs time for the excellent economic news to filter through. "We don't need the uncertainty of a General Election".

    Jan 2030, then ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @hoffman_noa

    Overhead in the Sun Lobby room: "snappy genners"
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 508
    edited May 22
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    That would be the second or third time he's wheeled out the lectern for a bland CEO update.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited May 22
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    It wouldn't surprise me if the hyped announcement turned out to be another speech from the lectern in Downing St about defeating authoritarianism by banning tents and rainbows.

    Perhaps this time he could promise to ban clouds? Or gas bills, maybe?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Scott_xP said:

    @hoffman_noa

    Overhead in the Sun Lobby room: "snappy genners"

    Death penalty.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Scott_xP said:

    @hoffman_noa

    Overhead in the Sun Lobby room: "snappy genners"

    Do they come after Gen Z ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Ooo, July has gone odds on. Wish I'd backed not laid now.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,081
    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Archive version from the Wayback Machine
    https://web.archive.org/web/20071212170442/http://www.btinternet.com/~chief.gnome/

    Tropes and discussion
    https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Literature/WhatIfGordonBanksHadPlayed
    https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/what-if-gordon-banks-had-played.736/

    Full archived version as zipped download
    https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-gordon-banks-had-played.309980/#post-8938245
    https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-gordon-banks-had-played.309980/#post-8938252

  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    ydoethur said:

    Scarpia said:

    ..now back again. JB opening up a new line

    Will she bottle Beer?
    She might hop it, but it would leave a bitter taste
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    @hoffman_noa

    Overhead in the Sun Lobby room: "snappy genners"

    Death penalty.
    Harsh, but fair.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Leon said:

    Cui bono from a July election?

    Doesn't make sense. Far better to wait til the last moment and pray for a black swan or the boats to stop coming coz Rwanda

    As I have said before, turkeys don't vote for Christmas to be brought forward, this seems to be exactly that

    Perhaps just that liberating feeling of seizing the initiative. Going out with a bang not a whimper.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    Taken ill with stress is my bet. Priory (luxury version) paid for by the Post Office.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Jamei said:

    Waiting for something good to happen doesn't make sense. Make a list of all the "good" things that could happen between now and an election that would actually improve Tory polling, and compare that to a list of all the "bad" things that could happen. Anyone choosing an election date based only on such an exercise would call one immediately.

    War, death of the King etc thought to encourage people to line up behind existing government

    Video emerges of sks torturing kitten

    Plus Sunak has delusions of agency and competence so that on average good stuff will happen because he makes it happen and bad stuff will not happen because he will prevent it

    Plus it's about legacy and length of tenure

  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Scott_xP said:

    @ITVJoel

    Treasury source dismisses rumours about Jeremy Hunt.

    “It’s nonsense, he’s 100% not resigning”.

    Source adds: “he’s 100% standing”, making the rumour about an election feel more solid!

    Rumours about Jeremy Hunt?

    So are people now talking about a reshuffle? Why would that need a cabinet meeting?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 22
    Peston reckons he knows something but can tell us what but an early election may be on
    Twat
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    Taken ill with stress is my bet. Priory (luxury version) paid for by the Post Office.
    She's the age Ernest Saunders was when he had a brief and reversible touch of Alzheimer's..
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    How about being made to run a PO/retail shop 80 hours a week, tenuously profitable and with a crap IT system that makes them spend hours each day trying to balance?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,829
    Given who is currently the Grand old Duke of York is the headline defamatory?

    So, maybe, following a meeting of the cabinet at 4? Nothing till then?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662

    General Election Date Announced

    "2nd half of 2024"

    January 2025 nailed on

    Oidhche Challain is celebrated on the 12th January. Burning of the Clavie on the 11th.

    Sunak might be focussing on the key marginals in the Western Isles and Moray. And the Gregorian calendar is woke.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ITVJoel

    Treasury source dismisses rumours about Jeremy Hunt.

    “It’s nonsense, he’s 100% not resigning”.

    Source adds: “he’s 100% standing”, making the rumour about an election feel more solid!

    Rumours about Jeremy Hunt?

    So are people now talking about a reshuffle? Why would that need a cabinet meeting?
    Perhaps we're going to bomb Russia.

    Or at least, allow the Ukrainians to.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,829

    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    It wouldn't surprise me if the hyped announcement turned out to be another speech from the lectern in Downing St about defeating authoritarianism by banning tents and rainbows.

    Perhaps this time he could promise to ban clouds? Or gas bills, maybe?
    Bicycles. He's going to ban bicycles.
    Might vote for him after all. If he would include dogs it would be a done deal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Steven_Swinford

    Number 10 is now refusing to say if Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the election

    Rishi Sunak was unequivocal in January that Hunt would remain in the role

    Today No 10 repeatedly refuses to repeat position and says it won't comment on 'reshuffle speculation'

    @MrHarryCole

    We've escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

    Last time that happened the Queen was dead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    If he bottles it, again...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ITVJoel

    Treasury source dismisses rumours about Jeremy Hunt.

    “It’s nonsense, he’s 100% not resigning”.

    Source adds: “he’s 100% standing”, making the rumour about an election feel more solid!

    Rumours about Jeremy Hunt?

    So are people now talking about a reshuffle? Why would that need a cabinet meeting?
    Not another PM ?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    It wouldn't surprise me if the hyped announcement turned out to be another speech from the lectern in Downing St about defeating authoritarianism by banning tents and rainbows.

    Perhaps this time he could promise to ban clouds? Or gas bills, maybe?
    Bicycles. He's going to ban bicycles.
    Death penalty *for* cyclists.
    XL Bullies to guard the White Cliffs.
    New power station fired by confiscated rainbow lanyards.
    Etc.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    If it is July there's still time for Mason to fail in a few selection attempts
    #smallmercies
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Scott_xP said:

    If he bottles it, again...

    Why would he drag Cameron back in order to have a Cabinet and then do a reshuffle?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    eristdoof said:

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Nice story but 1) had Banks played Brazil would have propbaly still won the world cup, 2) had England won the world cup, Heath would have still won the election (does football really influence voting behaviour to any significant event?) 3) Had Heath stood down in as LOTO in late 1971, Powell would not have become Tory leader.
    Sure but at least it doesn't have AI-operated UFOs shooting down pro_Palestinian trans demonstrators with their XL Bullies marching through London. So there's that added dollop of authenticity. (I do wonder sometimes what mental picture the aliens on Betelgeuse VII will form of the UK when they read PB posts in about 650 years' time.)
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    megasaur said:

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    Taken ill with stress is my bet. Priory (luxury version) paid for by the Post Office.
    She's the age Ernest Saunders was when he had a brief and reversible touch of Alzheimer's..
    She's actually getting on for ten years older than Saunders was when he was diagnosed with Alzheimers - he was in his 50s in 1991. Still alive at 88.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Peston reckons he knows something but can tell us what but an early election may be on
    Twat

    He's like one of them knobs who posts cryptic stuff like "Some people are horrible" on their FB.

    U OK hun? etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
    Key NTS site and NNR next door, too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    If Sunak calls GE at 5pm tonight then Vennells is not "the most unlucky CEO ever" but the luckiest.

    Her appalling testimony will be wiped off the news.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Carnyx said:

    eristdoof said:

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Nice story but 1) had Banks played Brazil would have propbaly still won the world cup, 2) had England won the world cup, Heath would have still won the election (does football really influence voting behaviour to any significant event?) 3) Had Heath stood down in as LOTO in late 1971, Powell would not have become Tory leader.
    Sure but at least it doesn't have AI-operated UFOs shooting down pro_Palestinian trans demonstrators with their XL Bullies marching through London. So there's that added dollop of authenticity. (I do wonder sometimes what mental picture the aliens on Betelgeuse VII will form of the UK when they read PB posts in about 650 years' time.)
    Probably be glad they live in a solar system whose star is about to go supernova, it's better than living in the UK.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Ghedebrav said:

    Peston reckons he knows something but can tell us what but an early election may be on
    Twat

    He's like one of them knobs who posts cryptic stuff like "Some people are horrible" on their FB.

    U OK hun? etc.
    Bad day. Don't want to talk about it. Praying tonight
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    edited May 22
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
    All ships limited to 2 knots while in sight of the island.

    Accommodation will be an old motor home, lifted on to the rock. I understand there is one going spare. Low mileage.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Scott_xP said:

    If he bottles it, again...

    Why would he drag Cameron back in order to have a Cabinet and then do a reshuffle?
    Or to call a GE? That's personal, not Cabinet.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.

    But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    megasaur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Charles is at Buckingham Palace.

    The ducks are increasingly lining up.

    If Sunak tries this, I wouldn't be surprised if there is at least an attempt to oust him this afternoon.
    You can't oust him that quick. You could I suppose appeal to his sense of decency and say he is morally obliged to leave office as an informal fix with the men in grey suits seeing as that's how he got it. Good luck with that

    My reading is Sunak wants to hold on as long as possible for something to turn up. Everyone else wants him out and as long as possible for his successor to turn things round. He is bluffing and saying you back down or I detonate the July hand grenade.
    The cabinet might revolt, that would be quick enough.....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    Bishop Rock it is, then.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    DM_Andy said:

    Carnyx said:

    eristdoof said:

    Stereodog said:

    On the Harold Wilson in 1970 point does anyone remember an online bit of alternative history that Anthony Wells wrote called “If Gordon Banks Had Played”.

    It theorised that if he had played England would have won and the resulting euphoria would have seen Harold Wilson re-elected. Heath was deposed and Enoch Powell elected as leader and eventually Prime Minister. Britain then goes down a kind of Putinist route with a full out war in Northern Ireland. It was rather far fetched but it was brilliantly told as a collection of fake bees stories, memoir extracts, government reports etc.

    Nice story but 1) had Banks played Brazil would have propbaly still won the world cup, 2) had England won the world cup, Heath would have still won the election (does football really influence voting behaviour to any significant event?) 3) Had Heath stood down in as LOTO in late 1971, Powell would not have become Tory leader.
    Sure but at least it doesn't have AI-operated UFOs shooting down pro_Palestinian trans demonstrators with their XL Bullies marching through London. So there's that added dollop of authenticity. (I do wonder sometimes what mental picture the aliens on Betelgeuse VII will form of the UK when they read PB posts in about 650 years' time.)
    Probably be glad they live in a solar system whose star is about to go supernova, it's better than living in the UK.
    A star that goes supernova would devastate life within 50 light years. So other solar systems will be impacted too.

    Fortunately the nearest one to us, IK Pegasi, is 150 Light years away and likely to be around 600 light years away when it goes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Leon said:

    Cui bono from a July election?

    Doesn't make sense. Far better to wait til the last moment and pray for a black swan or the boats to stop coming coz Rwanda

    As I have said before, turkeys don't vote for Christmas to be brought forward, this seems to be exactly that

    I agree with just one tiny caveat.

    If any PM could come up with a too clever by half argument for holding an early election they were almost certain to lose by a record-setting margin it would be Sunak.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 457

    Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.

    But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.

    It's racing in on Betfair - 1.23 now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    megasaur said:

    IanB2 said:

    She's up for three days - hard to see this going on that long?

    Taken ill with stress is my bet. Priory (luxury version) paid for by the Post Office.
    She's the age Ernest Saunders was when he had a brief and reversible touch of Alzheimer's..
    She's actually getting on for ten years older than Saunders was when he was diagnosed with Alzheimers - he was in his 50s in 1991. Still alive at 88.
    "He was sentenced to five years' imprisonment, but released after 10 months as he was believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease. He subsequently recovered."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Saunders

    Never heard of anyone else recovering from it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    edited May 22

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
    All ships limited to 2 knots while in sight of the island.

    Accommodation will be an old motor home, lifted on to the rock. I understand there is one going spare. Low mileage.
    The RAF will drop Hawaiian pizzas to the grateful masses
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Number 10 is now refusing to say if Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the election

    Rishi Sunak was unequivocal in January that Hunt would remain in the role

    Today No 10 repeatedly refuses to repeat position and says it won't comment on 'reshuffle speculation'

    @MrHarryCole

    We've escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

    Last time that happened the Queen was dead.

    Maybe it's...the King?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Just to add to the frenzied election speculation, there's a No10 spads meeting at 2pm... and Liam Booth-Smith is wearing a tie!

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1793253977485681082
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 22

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    20m
    If Rishi Sunak doesn’t call an election today it will be up there with Callaghan in ‘78, Brown ‘07 and Chelsea ‘24 for bottle jobs…

    "We cannot be killed
    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
    By Sion Simon"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    If he doesn't call it today he is worse at politics than EMICIPM
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,897
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Number 10 is now refusing to say if Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the election

    Rishi Sunak was unequivocal in January that Hunt would remain in the role

    Today No 10 repeatedly refuses to repeat position and says it won't comment on 'reshuffle speculation'

    @MrHarryCole

    We've escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

    Last time that happened the Queen was dead.

    Maybe it's...the King?
    The King or whatever Kate's title is these days?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    edited May 22
    Jamei said:

    Waiting for something good to happen doesn't make sense. Make a list of all the "good" things that could happen between now and an election that would actually improve Tory polling, and compare that to a list of all the "bad" things that could happen. Anyone choosing an election date based only on such an exercise would call one immediately.

    It's a simple consequence of chaos theory that the longer ahead you are trying to predict the more uncertain your prediction is. Given the central estimate of the current prediction, Sunak needs as much uncertainty as possible.

    That's still true even if your current forecast has the central estimate moving against you over time, so bad is the nowcast.

    Edit: And, of course, there's the certainty of being in office for another six months if you wait, against the near-certainty of being out of office for at least four years if you don't.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.

    But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.

    It's racing in on Betfair - 1.23 now.
    Yeah, it's incredibly short now. November around 6 if anyone is feeling bold.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?

    I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
    F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.

    This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
    It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.

    From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
    So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.

    Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.

    It is outrageous.
    The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
    The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….

    And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps

    Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
    I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.

    “That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.

    Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
    My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.

    Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
    The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.

    Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
    The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
    The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
    All ships limited to 2 knots while in sight of the island.

    Accommodation will be an old motor home, lifted on to the rock. I understand there is one going spare. Low mileage.
    The RAF will drop Hawaiian pizzas to the grateful masses
    Not on 6 June, they aren't. It's not like the good old days when there were squadrons of Coastal Command Shackletons all over the place to drop Xmas cards and treats to the weather ships out in the Atlantic.
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 273

    Just to add to the frenzied election speculation, there's a No10 spads meeting at 2pm... and Liam Booth-Smith is wearing a tie!

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1793253977485681082

    Sunak has agreed a merger with Reform, Tice is replacing Hunt :cold_sweat:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    It wouldn't surprise me if the hyped announcement turned out to be another speech from the lectern in Downing St about defeating authoritarianism by banning tents and rainbows.

    Perhaps this time he could promise to ban clouds? Or gas bills, maybe?
    Big "Mission Accomplished" banner in the background, perhaps?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited May 22

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Number 10 is now refusing to say if Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the election

    Rishi Sunak was unequivocal in January that Hunt would remain in the role

    Today No 10 repeatedly refuses to repeat position and says it won't comment on 'reshuffle speculation'

    @MrHarryCole

    We've escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

    Last time that happened the Queen was dead.

    Maybe it's...the King?
    The King or whatever Kate's title is these days?
    Abdication/renunciation? Not likely, though. Can't see it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    All I can picture is Malcolm Tucker seeing off a coup saying “there’s one thing I can do”.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.

    But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.

    The thing is supposedly the finances are such that there can be no tax cut in the autumn and it seems that the NI cuts can’t actually be justified.

    Hence the need to run now because it’s only going to get worse from here as I pointed out in January
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,897
    OT a friend yesterday fell for a well-known scam: I'm your daughter, phone is broken so you can't call me, send money urgently.

    Fortunately, he is so inept he managed to lock his bank account while trying to transfer £1,800 to his "daughter". When he phoned the bank to unlock the account, they were able to convince him it was a scam. Keep safe.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    Jeez I just saw a photo of KCIII at the Chelsea Flower Show. He looks about 108

    One hates to speculate but wow, that's very sad
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    I know people on here are pro-cash but this is just getting silly now. Size isn't everything.

    https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1793257850501804048?t=8PCygIXQ8tXXNwf4PTcUZA&s=19
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,897
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Number 10 is now refusing to say if Jeremy Hunt will be chancellor at the election

    Rishi Sunak was unequivocal in January that Hunt would remain in the role

    Today No 10 repeatedly refuses to repeat position and says it won't comment on 'reshuffle speculation'

    @MrHarryCole

    We've escalated from top contact calls ringing out to calls being knifed...

    Last time that happened the Queen was dead.

    Maybe it's...the King?
    The King or whatever Kate's title is these days?
    Abdication/renunciation? Not likely, though. Can't see it.
    Unlikely, yes, but not impossible. And PoW Kate has still not recovered, in news earlier this week.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662

    Just to add to the frenzied election speculation, there's a No10 spads meeting at 2pm... and Liam Booth-Smith is wearing a tie!

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1793253977485681082

    Sunak has agreed a merger with Reform, Tice is replacing Hunt :cold_sweat:
    Lord Farage of Calais in as Home Secretary
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    megasaur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If he bottles it, again...

    Why would he drag Cameron back in order to have a Cabinet and then do a reshuffle?
    Or to call a GE? That's personal, not Cabinet.
    Usually, a general election is signed off by the cabinet, however notionally. Collective government remains the theory, even if increasingly a fiction in reality.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    OT a friend yesterday fell for a well-known scam: I'm your daughter, phone is broken so you can't call me, send money urgently.

    Fortunately, he is so inept he managed to lock his bank account while trying to transfer £1,800 to his "daughter". When he phoned the bank to unlock the account, they were able to convince him it was a scam. Keep safe.

    1. You can call me on the device you are messaging me from

    2. If you can't where did you go to school?
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 273
    Eabhal said:

    Just to add to the frenzied election speculation, there's a No10 spads meeting at 2pm... and Liam Booth-Smith is wearing a tie!

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1793253977485681082

    Sunak has agreed a merger with Reform, Tice is replacing Hunt :cold_sweat:
    Lord Farage of Calais in as Home Secretary
    of the Cinque Ports, surely?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 22
    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    Starmer etc and the rest of the PC will be called in before any announcement if that were the case
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 273
    Leon said:

    Jeez I just saw a photo of KCIII at the Chelsea Flower Show. He looks about 108

    One hates to speculate but wow, that's very sad

    Thought they'd mistakenly put up an old photo of his dad, at first.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Steven_Swinford
    Amid growing election speculation this is what we know:

    * Cabinet is at 4.15pm. Cameron is cutting short trip to Albania so he can be there, Shapps is delaying a trip abroad. That doesn't sound routine

    * Number 10 has gone totally submarine

    * PM and Dowden said to have spent much of yesterday locked in meetings

    * Sunak's laughter when asked about it at PMQs
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    Fk Rachel Reeves is boring
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    I pipped you both.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    eek said:

    Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.

    But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.

    The thing is supposedly the finances are such that there can be no tax cut in the autumn and it seems that the NI cuts can’t actually be justified.

    Hence the need to run now because it’s only going to get worse from here as I pointed out in January
    But if you called the election in September - or even October - there'd still not be time for another fiscal event so no possibility of cutting further.

    FWIW, I believe the impact of instant cuts on polling is trivially small, and the impact of promised future cuts even lower. It's only the experience of cuts, over time, that makes a difference.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    As for the Met, they need their arses kicked into the sun.

    Get some proper investigators in right now to start the preparation of cases for the PO and Grenfell and be ready with 3/4 of the work done the day the reports are handed in so you can do the rest within 6 months.

    All this waiting around while we scratch our arses, learn to read, decide what kebab we're going to eat then say we don't have enough evidence blah blah and everyone is dead anyway needs to stop.

  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    If that were the case No 10 would absolutely have quashed any speculation that the announcement was about the election.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    As he was alive and well at Chelsea this week it's unlikely to be anything royal related, unless Kate is more unwell than is currently suggested.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Jeez I just saw a photo of KCIII at the Chelsea Flower Show. He looks about 108

    One hates to speculate but wow, that's very sad

    Chemo can do that to you, can be gruelling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    edited May 22

    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    Starmer etc and the rest of the PC will be called in before any announcement if that were the case
    It's quite a harrowing photo of KC3. And it's on the BBC website. I don't see why they would have chosen to publish it, unless we are being prepped for bad news

    Again: I hope I am wrong, but wow. He looks like his Mum did when she was in the last year. I guess he is on chemo or radio and that will make anyone look terrible, and also he is still walking about, kind of, so that's a source of some consolation. But I do wonder if this is some awful news about the royals. Maybe am abdication if the prognosis is too dire?

    And of course this would in turn affect election plans
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    It wouldn't need the Foreign Secretary to cut short an overseas visit to attend cabinet, though. Any announcement would come from the palace, with the PM & LoTO being primed to make suitably-sympathetic statements.

    And you'd really hope that the SPADs / press secretary / etc wouldn't be smirking quite so much whilst playing their sly "I know something you don't know!" game...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,897
    megasaur said:

    OT a friend yesterday fell for a well-known scam: I'm your daughter, phone is broken so you can't call me, send money urgently.

    Fortunately, he is so inept he managed to lock his bank account while trying to transfer £1,800 to his "daughter". When he phoned the bank to unlock the account, they were able to convince him it was a scam. Keep safe.

    1. You can call me on the device you are messaging me from

    2. If you can't where did you go to school?
    Obvious when, like us and the bank, you've heard of this scam before. Harder when you've not, and believe your daughter is in trouble.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    I pipped you both.
    The weird thing is I hadn't even read the thread or those prior comments. I just clicked on the BBC story and saw the photo and winced, profoundly

    Obviously a zeitgeist in the air
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Jamei said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    If that were the case No 10 would absolutely have quashed any speculation that the announcement was about the election.
    Agree, edging the electorate with royal death news is not a good political look.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,662
    If Sunak calls an election on the day after the infected blood report and during Paula Vennell's appearance, it just demonstrates how infantile and unserious UK politics is.

    He should be all all over the media detailing the scandal(s) and explaining what the Gov is going to do about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287

    Leon said:

    Jeez I just saw a photo of KCIII at the Chelsea Flower Show. He looks about 108

    One hates to speculate but wow, that's very sad

    Chemo can do that to you, can be gruelling.
    Indeed. My stepmum had an appalling time with it, aged her by 20 years, albeit she was "cured"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Eabhal said:

    If Sunak calls an election on the day after the infected blood report and during Paula Vennell's appearance, it just demonstrates how infantile and unserious UK politics is.

    He should be all all over the media detailing the scandal(s) and explaining what the Gov is going to do about it.

    He has promised to fix and pay for it all. And promptly left that up to his successor.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,897
    Cyclefree said:

    As for the Met, they need their arses kicked into the sun.

    Get some proper investigators in right now to start the preparation of cases for the PO and Grenfell and be ready with 3/4 of the work done the day the reports are handed in so you can do the rest within 6 months.

    All this waiting around while we scratch our arses, learn to read, decide what kebab we're going to eat then say we don't have enough evidence blah blah and everyone is dead anyway needs to stop.

    The Met lost many experienced police officers under Cameron & May's cuts, and replacing them with new recruits will not immediately fill the gap.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    megasaur said:

    OT a friend yesterday fell for a well-known scam: I'm your daughter, phone is broken so you can't call me, send money urgently.

    Fortunately, he is so inept he managed to lock his bank account while trying to transfer £1,800 to his "daughter". When he phoned the bank to unlock the account, they were able to convince him it was a scam. Keep safe.

    1. You can call me on the device you are messaging me from

    2. If you can't where did you go to school?
    Obvious when, like us and the bank, you've heard of this scam before. Harder when you've not, and believe your daughter is in trouble.
    The fix is to always ask a question about an Auntie who doesn’t exist - no one scamming you is going to give you the correct answer
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,287
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.

    You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
    It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
    An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible

    But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
This discussion has been closed.