Jeez I just saw a photo of KCIII at the Chelsea Flower Show. He looks about 108
One hates to speculate but wow, that's very sad
Chemo can do that to you, can be gruelling.
And appearance doesn't always tell the whole story. Successful chemo can see a fairly fast rebound, and I've seen friends go from looking very ill indeed to fairly healthy in quite a short space of time.
If it is a GE, I say good on Sunak as too many leaders in this situation hang on to the bitter end and it doesn't do them or the party any good.
I wonder if one reason for going early is that the Cons could then go straight into a leadership election after the GE and get a new leader for their conference in September.
The other benefit to the party of getting it out the way is that there are elections in 2026 for Holyrood and the Senedd. As the main opposition party in both, the local Cons ought to be primed to benefit but they are currently being heavily weighed down by the Westminster party.
OT a friend yesterday fell for a well-known scam: I'm your daughter, phone is broken so you can't call me, send money urgently.
Fortunately, he is so inept he managed to lock his bank account while trying to transfer £1,800 to his "daughter". When he phoned the bank to unlock the account, they were able to convince him it was a scam. Keep safe.
1. You can call me on the device you are messaging me from
2. If you can't where did you go to school?
Obvious when, like us and the bank, you've heard of this scam before. Harder when you've not, and believe your daughter is in trouble.
The fix is to always ask a question about an Auntie who doesn’t exist - no one scamming you is going to give you the correct answer
Again, that only works if you are suspicious. The scam works because there are a lot of naive victims whose first and only thought is to rescue their child (or whoever).
Paula Vennells was the boss. She was paid handsomely to run the organisation properly and know what it was doing. If she wanted to know about stuff it was her fucking responsibility to make sure her staff knew to do this.
All this "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil, I was too trusting, I cannot imagine why no-one told me anything, no I had no idea what 100 investigators were doing and what the phrase "we prosecuted" meant and oh my goodness what is a stamp?" flannel we've been hearing is a load of old bollocks.
That is all.
All true, sadly. Of course it is now some years ago that someone who had actually been part of doing something wrong had come out early and said so.
By now it is impossible. The big cheeses in this are in Macbeth's position: I am in blood / Stepped in so far, that, should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o'er
(Note the subtle Shakespeare reference). It is too late for any cheese to make any admissions at all, because one single significant admission of relevant knowledge unravels the whole shebang and suggests that the entire crew have obstructed justice for years and done so knowingly, including weeks of lies to this inquiry.
They have spent years hoping they would just about get away with it by pleading ignorance. Now this isn't going to work it is even more shaming to tell the truth than it is to carry on the farce.
It only takes one cheese to say "I knew, we all knew, that X had gone to prison and that they may have been innocent, the evidence was false, and we were carrying on with these cases, and we could have done something and we didn't. We all knew," for the whole thing to implode.
If it is a GE, I say good on Sunak as too many leaders in this situation hang on to the bitter end and it doesn't do them or the party any good.
I wonder if one reason for going early is that the Cons could then go straight into a leadership election after the GE and get a new leader for their conference in September.
The other benefit to the party of getting it out the way is that there are elections in 2026 for Holyrood and the Senedd. As the main opposition party in both, the local Cons ought to be primed to benefit but they are currently being heavily weighed down by the Westminster party.
I imagine that's what he's hoping people will think; chap seized the initiative, good on him etc.
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
It would also require formal communication with the nations he is monarch of to allow for simultaneous broadcast of the news. Its Nadhim Zahawi absolutely did not know before Toothy Ardern all over again
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
Starmer etc and the rest of the PC will be called in before any announcement if that were the case
It's quite a harrowing photo of KC3. And it's on the BBC website. I don't see why they would have chosen to publish it, unless we are being prepped for bad news
Again: I hope I am wrong, but wow. He looks like his Mum did when she was in the last year. I guess he is on chemo or radio and that will make anyone look terrible, and also he is still walking about, kind of, so that's a source of some consolation. But I do wonder if this is some awful news about the royals. Maybe am abdication if the prognosis is too dire?
And of course this would in turn affect election plans
They presumably don't want the Monarch dying during an election campaign, so that might be a solid reason to get it done early.
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
That would be a very good argument in favour of not having terminal cancer. If he has however got it the choice is between a complete media circus for weeks over how close to croaking he is, or he becomes his former Majesty and entitled to die in private because it is nobody else's business
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
I don't buy that. The anointing, even if believed in - and Charles has been inclusive and heterodox in his spirituality - is a mark of acceptance. It doesn't have to mean forever (or for life).
A better argument would be that it'd be a right mess with the realms, each of which has their own laws of succession (albeit in unison at the moment), and abdication isn't provided for.
A regency, however, would be a more realistic response to serious ill health, as has a much stronger pre-existing legal foundation.
That said, such an announcement doesn't fit with the media mood music.
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
That would be a very good argument in favour of not having terminal cancer. If he has however got it the choice is between a complete media circus for weeks over how close to croaking he is, or he becomes his former Majesty and entitled to die in private because it is nobody else's business
Mr Herdson makes a good argument for a Regency, in those sad circs
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
I don't buy that. The anointing, even if believed in - and Charles has been inclusive and heterodox in his spirituality - is a mark of acceptance. It doesn't have to mean forever (or for life).
A better argument would be that it'd be a right mess with the realms, each of which has their own laws of succession (albeit in unison at the moment), and abdication isn't provided for.
A regency, however, would be a more realistic response to serious ill health, as has a much stronger re-existing legal foundation.
That said, such an announcement doesn't fit with the media mood music.
I agree that such an announcement doesn't fit the media mood music.
I would note that Margrethe II's recent abdication seemed to go down well, and the King will have noticed the actions of his (distant) cousin.
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
If that were the case No 10 would absolutely have quashed any speculation that the announcement was about the election.
Agree, edging the electorate with royal death news is not a good political look.
Agreed. Realistically it is either election or reshuffle. Again if it was reshuffle, Sunak could have shut the election speculation down so it seems like it will be election.
@KateEMcCann At post-PMQs lobby briefing PM's team shifted the line on whether Jeremy Hunt would stay on as Chancellor in the run up to election as he's likely to lose his seat (from 'yes definitely' to 'he's doing a great job'). Chancellor has been pulled from TV interview this evening and Cabinet given three-line whip to attend 4.15 meeting today.
Lots of speculation about whether a reshuffle, election announcement or BOTH is on the cards - nothing is confirmed. But it is significant to pull the Chancellor at short notice. IF election announced later No10 would want Hunt out talking it up... unless the plan is to reshuffle him out of Cabinet altogether.
Odds seem to be settling a bit after a dramatic shortening. Fair play to anyone who got on at 20 or 16 - I imagine it's all green from here for you whatever happens.
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
@KateEMcCann At post-PMQs lobby briefing PM's team shifted the line on whether Jeremy Hunt would stay on as Chancellor in the run up to election as he's likely to lose his seat (from 'yes definitely' to 'he's doing a great job'). Chancellor has been pulled from TV interview this evening and Cabinet given three-line whip to attend 4.15 meeting today.
Lots of speculation about whether a reshuffle, election announcement or BOTH is on the cards - nothing is confirmed. But it is significant to pull the Chancellor at short notice. IF election announced later No10 would want Hunt out talking it up... unless the plan is to reshuffle him out of Cabinet altogether.
There was previously talk that Hunt wanted to stand down rather than lose his seat to the LDs
@KateEMcCann At post-PMQs lobby briefing PM's team shifted the line on whether Jeremy Hunt would stay on as Chancellor in the run up to election as he's likely to lose his seat (from 'yes definitely' to 'he's doing a great job'). Chancellor has been pulled from TV interview this evening and Cabinet given three-line whip to attend 4.15 meeting today.
Lots of speculation about whether a reshuffle, election announcement or BOTH is on the cards - nothing is confirmed. But it is significant to pull the Chancellor at short notice. IF election announced later No10 would want Hunt out talking it up... unless the plan is to reshuffle him out of Cabinet altogether.
Could there have been a bust-up behind the scenes - Hunt recently seems to have been deliberately downplaying the chance of another tax cut.
Maybe Rishi wants to try some sort of shock therapy (abolish NICs altogether?), with an election being called on the back of it?
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
FWIW, I still think the Tories would be absolutely nuts to call an election now.
But people do do nuts things sometimes and the evidence points to it being a very real possibility.
All the evidence suggests that waiting would be even more nuts
Inflation is down and interest rates are likely to start falling over the summer. Yes, boats, blah. There probably aren't many more votes to be lost on that.
Hard to believe that Sunak would call a GE for July - he'd be bonkers.
But the fact that No. 10 has conspicuously failed to send anybody out to squash the rumours, an easy thing to do, suggests that bonkers may have won the day.
It's racing in on Betfair - 1.23 now.
Yeah, it's incredibly short now. November around 6 if anyone is feeling bold.
I've topped up on November at 6s. I'm very green on July having got on originally at 50/1.
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
You dont need to drag the Foreign sec back to a special cabinet in order to change the chancellor.
Sir Wyn's not believing Paula Vennell's bullshit is he?
I stopped watching. She may deserve it, but too painful for me to watch!
F*ck her. People lost their homes, livelihoods and lives because of her and her fellow Senior managers.
This may be painful for her. The pain her victims have endured has gone on for many years and STILL no restitution.
It's worse than most people imagine, Taz.
From the outset, the PO and its advisers have resisted every attempt to obtain justice for the SPMs, and it is still doing so. Witness for example yesterday's lamentable witness who palpably lied repeatedly about her role in the scandal. Or Ms Vennell's failure to release crucial documents until the last minute, thus hampering the work of the Inquiry and dragging it out longer than ever should have been necessary.
So they have been more than wilfully obstructive. How on earth can they simply lie and claim what they now claim.
Vennells is clearly culpable but the press and media focus being on her is giving many of the others, if not a free ride, a far easier time of it.
It is outrageous.
The whole gang should be rounded up and prosecuted - rough justice, but no worse than they meted out.
The prosecution seems a bit excessive just give them10 years each and make them liable so that some of the costs can be recovered via their pensions, house….
And then a few tens of thousands of hours of community service, cleaning the homes of their victims every week as home helps
Actually yep - just 50 hours of community service per week for the next 15 years feels suitable punishment
I propose a Bill of Attainder in the Commons.
“That the management of the Post Office between date X and date Y, be a declared a Criminal and Corrupt Organisation. Membership of this organisation shall incur a minimum penalty of life in prison.
Appeals shall be heard by a judicial committee consisting of those post office employees to whom the recent pardons were applied. After a waiting period of a decade.”
My problem with that is that our jails are full and keeping old people in jail costs serious money.
Hence my proposed solution of 40,000 hours community service at 50 hours a week. Keeps them in the community (say a bedsit or similar) and reduces the cost of imprisoning them
The Malmesbury Bill for the Adoption of Rockall As A Place of Imprisonment.
Funded by a reality TV show. Every week inmate voted off the island. Into the sea.
The Scottish Government would bow to the NIMBIES and quite rightly too. No planning permission.
The ultimate Low Traffic Neighbourhood.
All ships limited to 2 knots while in sight of the island.
Accommodation will be an old motor home, lifted on to the rock. I understand there is one going spare. Low mileage.
The RAF will drop Hawaiian pizzas to the grateful masses
Was that the reason for Pearl Harbour - Japs trying to protect their Italian allies from American Pizzas?
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
Odds seem to be settling a bit after a dramatic shortening. Fair play to anyone who got on at 20 or 16 - I imagine it's all green from here for you whatever happens.
There is only one good reason for Rishi Sunak to call a general election on July 4: on inflation, interest rates, Rwanda, party unity, the polls, everything, he’s been told now is as good as it ever gets for the Tories. That’s some stark realisation #GE2024
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
Apparently he has been taken off tonight's media
I think it is very likely to involve Hunt's resignation
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
A more speculation reason for requiring complete Cabinet attendance, would be if Sunak had decided he was going to lose, and the best hope for the Tories lay in the Cabinet choosing a new PM to fight an immediate election.
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
As for the Met, they need their arses kicked into the sun.
Get some proper investigators in right now to start the preparation of cases for the PO and Grenfell and be ready with 3/4 of the work done the day the reports are handed in so you can do the rest within 6 months.
All this waiting around while we scratch our arses, learn to read, decide what kebab we're going to eat then say we don't have enough evidence blah blah and everyone is dead anyway needs to stop.
Are you aware that they hired some new investigators? Former Post Office investigators.
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
A more speculation reason for requiring complete Cabinet attendance, would be if Sunak had decided he was going to lose, and the best hope for the Tories lay in the Cabinet choosing a new PM to fight an immediate election.
Cabinet don't decide though Edit - and no way they let him go and say 'the plan has failed'
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
The only serious thing I can think of if it's not a GE is that the King's been diagnosed with 3 months to live or something along those lines.
You posted that 3 seconds before I made my comment about the King. Yes, I wonder... I sincerely hope I am wrong
It’s not as if there weren’t plenty of rumours about his cancer and PoW’s illness before they were announced so I would guess/hope it’s nothing to do with the Royal family - unless they’ve managed to plug the budget black hole with sales of Meghan’s jam.
An abdication would definitely require the government to go into a huddle. And if KC3 feels he can no longer discharge any duties, then an abdication is plausible
But I agree it would be hugely unseemly for Spads to play silly buggers with the news, tho on the other hand it is possible it is all concocted by excitable journalists. I know a few of them. Damn fools, mostly
Abdication is really unlikely to occur, the reason being the coronation and more specifically the anointing. Anyone who has gone through that type of solemn religious rite isn’t going to throw it over lightly or at all. It might not matter to the vast majority but it will to His Majesty. There’s a reason that E8 was booted pre-coronation.
That would be a very good argument in favour of not having terminal cancer. If he has however got it the choice is between a complete media circus for weeks over how close to croaking he is, or he becomes his former Majesty and entitled to die in private because it is nobody else's business
Mr Herdson makes a good argument for a Regency, in those sad circs
I'm intigrued by the idea of a Regency for PM.
Get Bojo in and we can have a Regency Regency Regency.
18 C attitudes, 18C appetites of diverse kinds, and a Regency.
We could even have an Immortal Refection, when Boris, IDS and Theresa Villiers celebrate their future prospects and how important they are.
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
A more speculation reason for requiring complete Cabinet attendance, would be if Sunak had decided he was going to lose, and the best hope for the Tories lay in the Cabinet choosing a new PM to fight an immediate election.
That would be much better for my book! And no worse for the Tories.....
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
A more speculation reason for requiring complete Cabinet attendance, would be if Sunak had decided he was going to lose, and the best hope for the Tories lay in the Cabinet choosing a new PM to fight an immediate election.
Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
It’s an election. Good! Because I defo wasn’t busy enough already and would absolutely welcome being thrown into a short campaign next week…
Sunak needs to run a long campaign as it gives much more chance of putting Starmer under scrutiny and he slips up. Sunak is so in the mire any campaign mistakes he makes wont do much.
My prediction would be exactly that. Announce the election, but for (early) Autumn. Maximise time to engineer some swingback.
No need for cutting short trips etc for that though. This feels more...... imminent
A more speculation reason for requiring complete Cabinet attendance, would be if Sunak had decided he was going to lose, and the best hope for the Tories lay in the Cabinet choosing a new PM to fight an immediate election.
Who might that be? I can't see Suella being happy with a new PM who wins a July 2nd election. She's so on the back benches for the next five years under those circumstances.
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
If there was any international development sufficiently important and urgent as to need cabinet discussion, Cameron would have already been heading back; it wouldn't have been necessary for No 10 to recall him.
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
Hope everyone's got their three day supply of bottled water sorted...
@PippaCrerar 👀Lots of speculation around election date. Not least because:
Sunak didn't deny at PMQs Cabinet meeting at 4.15pm Cameron flying back early from trip Hunt has cancelled ITV No 10 gone silent Manifesto work stepped up PM's chief-of-staff unusually wearing suit & tie (!) Senior ministers this week doubled down on dividing lines Tory bosses had meeting this week on how much money they could spend before summer election
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
Hope everyone's got their three day supply of bottled water sorted...
I'm upwind from Mildenhall/Lakenheath. Stupid Yankee bases
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
You dont need to drag the Foreign sec back to a special cabinet in order to change the chancellor.
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
If there was any international development sufficiently important and urgent as to need cabinet discussion, Cameron would have already been heading back; it wouldn't have been necessary for No 10 to recall him.
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
As with days like this there are multiple strands of speculation, many of which quickly wither to nothing. There is an odd focus on Hunt, but I do wonder if that's journalistic lensing rather than the intent.
You dont need to drag the Foreign sec back to a special cabinet in order to change the chancellor.
Could we be declaring war on somebody?
The opposition would be invited in to discuss/inform first
Rishi has just ruled out 27 June. But not 4 July...
Where/when did he rule out 27 June?
Just now in PMQs in response to Stephen Flynn. He said it would be in the second half of this year.
Although as noted above, July 4 is in the second half (and more realistic even if dissolution was announced today).
But at least as notable is that the above quote also rules out January 2025.
It's hard to see the rationale for July 4th.
Flights take off, before boats increase in summer
And less specifically General Elections are often fought by governing parties on the basis of feel good and there’s no doubt that Spring / Summer are deemed better in that regard than Autumn / Winter. The fact that July 4th will be in the middle of the Euros is a positive for the governing party.
I’ll be surprised if Rishi Sunak does go for this but if he doesn’t it’s a mess to have allowed the rumour traction.
Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024
Perhaps he thinks he can do a Corbyn with SKS as Mrs May?
Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024
Perhaps he thinks he can do a Corbyn with SKS as Mrs May?
That gives us the prospect of another five years of inertia. What will be left by 2029?
Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024
Perhaps he thinks he can do a Corbyn with SKS as Mrs May?
"Is Rishi Sunak about to call an election? The Prime Minister’s demeanour only fuelled rumours that he is set to announce a July contest. By Rachel Cunliffe"
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
War with Russia?
Has something happened we are unaware of?
The Kharkiv front is being flattened and Russia are running tactical nuke exercises
Hope everyone's got their three day supply of bottled water sorted...
Does 2 years of wine at pessimistic consumption rates, in UPS protected wine fridges, count?
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Successful chemo can see a fairly fast rebound, and I've seen friends go from looking very ill indeed to fairly healthy in quite a short space of time.
I wonder if one reason for going early is that the Cons could then go straight into a leadership election after the GE and get a new leader for their conference in September.
The other benefit to the party of getting it out the way is that there are elections in 2026 for Holyrood and the Senedd. As the main opposition party in both, the local Cons ought to be primed to benefit but they are currently being heavily weighed down by the Westminster party.
The Chancellor is no longer appearing on the Programme tonight
Tune in later 👇
By now it is impossible. The big cheeses in this are in Macbeth's position:
I am in blood / Stepped in so far, that, should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o'er
(Note the subtle Shakespeare reference). It is too late for any cheese to make any admissions at all, because one single significant admission of relevant knowledge unravels the whole shebang and suggests that the entire crew have obstructed justice for years and done so knowingly, including weeks of lies to this inquiry.
They have spent years hoping they would just about get away with it by pleading ignorance. Now this isn't going to work it is even more shaming to tell the truth than it is to carry on the farce.
It only takes one cheese to say "I knew, we all knew, that X had gone to prison and that they may have been innocent, the evidence was false, and we were carrying on with these cases, and we could have done something and we didn't. We all knew," for the whole thing to implode.
A better argument would be that it'd be a right mess with the realms, each of which has their own laws of succession (albeit in unison at the moment), and abdication isn't provided for.
A regency, however, would be a more realistic response to serious ill health, as has a much stronger pre-existing legal foundation.
That said, such an announcement doesn't fit with the media mood music.
But people do do nuts things sometimes and the evidence points to it being a very real possibility.
Whatever else today’s Downing Street drama is the eighth @RishiSunak relaunch and the second in nine days
I would note that Margrethe II's recent abdication seemed to go down well, and the King will have noticed the actions of his (distant) cousin.
At post-PMQs lobby briefing PM's team shifted the line on whether Jeremy Hunt would stay on as Chancellor in the run up to election as he's likely to lose his seat (from 'yes definitely' to 'he's doing a great job'). Chancellor has been pulled from TV interview this evening and Cabinet given three-line whip to attend 4.15 meeting today.
Lots of speculation about whether a reshuffle, election announcement or BOTH is on the cards - nothing is confirmed. But it is significant to pull the Chancellor at short notice. IF election announced later No10 would want Hunt out talking it up... unless the plan is to reshuffle him out of Cabinet altogether.
The heartless b*******ds.
Is Sunak about to replace him with Claire Coutinho and make her first female Chancellor
Probably no but why not add to the speculation
Maybe Rishi wants to try some sort of shock therapy (abolish NICs altogether?), with an election being called on the back of it?
There is only one good reason for Rishi Sunak to call a general election on July 4: on inflation, interest rates, Rwanda, party unity, the polls, everything, he’s been told now is as good as it ever gets for the Tories. That’s some stark realisation #GE2024
I think it is very likely to involve Hunt's resignation
@Steven_Swinford
Amid growing election speculation this is what we know:
* Cabinet is at 4.15pm. Cameron is cutting short trip to Albania so he can be there, Shapps is delaying a trip abroad. That doesn't sound routine
* Number 10 has gone totally submarine
* PM and Dowden said to have spent much of yesterday locked in meetings
* Sunak's laughter when asked about it at PMQs
'I think it's heads down and straight to Q4. Probably called in September'
it's an election!
No need to have a cabinet meeting with mandatory attendance for a reshuffle.
"If all this speculation comes to nothing, the whole government operation will appear incompetent. More incompetent than a government operation that kicks off a campaign with a warning to stockpile food? Who knows. Nothing about today makes any sense."
Yes. Really.
Edit - and no way they let him go and say 'the plan has failed'
Has something happened we are unaware of?
Get Bojo in and we can have a Regency Regency Regency.
18 C attitudes, 18C appetites of diverse kinds, and a Regency.
We could even have an Immortal Refection, when Boris, IDS and Theresa Villiers celebrate their future prospects and how important they are.
https://x.com/DisabledRebel/status/1793276010881860057?t=gxEZBCVg8uqnlf5e7CwHxA&s=19
...because he's now the PM.
LOL.
Interesting point from Victoria Clarke, UK Chief Economist at Santander, at a @resfoundation event.
There's potentially only a "short window" where inflation is 2% before heading up again later this year...
Here's what @YouGov is polling: Sunak has his lowest score on favourability and other key attributes; the economy as a top concern dips to its lowest level since early 2022 #snapelection #GE2024
July-Sep 1.19 / 1.25
Oct-Dec 5.1 / 14.5
2025 or later 27 / 880
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.218024805
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
👀Lots of speculation around election date. Not least because:
Sunak didn't deny at PMQs
Cabinet meeting at 4.15pm
Cameron flying back early from trip
Hunt has cancelled ITV
No 10 gone silent
Manifesto work stepped up
PM's chief-of-staff unusually wearing suit & tie (!)
Senior ministers this week doubled down on dividing lines
Tory bosses had meeting this week on how much money they could spend before summer election
First week in July is the first week that meets his working assumption of "second half of the year".
I’ll be surprised if Rishi Sunak does go for this but if he doesn’t it’s a mess to have allowed the rumour traction.
Tory MP when asked if I should cancel my June plans at 11.44am: "Probably not."
Same MP, unprompted, at 2.53pm: "Hold that."
Remember 1992 Kinabalu. Remember 1992!
Edit - and why? If the economic plan is working........
The Prime Minister’s demeanour only fuelled rumours that he is set to announce a July contest.
By Rachel Cunliffe"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2024/05/is-rishi-sunak-about-to-call-an-election