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The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,600
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    In other news, I see the magnificently mediocre Lord David Frost has become the latest high profile Tory to come out in favour of a new Trump presidency, so putting pursuit of culture war ahead of foundational UK national security interests. There is a madness gripping the Tories right now. As someone who does care about this country's future, I genuinely hope it is temporary.

    Trump is not even popular with most Tories, its odd some figures think that's the way to go.
    Does anyone in the UK actually like Trump, apart from Farage and friends? Sure there’s many Conservatives who consider him the least-worst option, which isn’t really the same. There’s also a surprising number of Americans coming to the same conclusion.
    I’ll rise to the bait. Slightly

    First let me say I think Trump is borderline mad and possibly going gaga

    And could easily be a disaster as President; surely not worth the risk even for the angriest American voter

    However this is quite good. He is still pretty good at this kind of demagoguery

    https://x.com/realdonparody/status/1750680099739861217?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Sandpit said:

    Documents showing Post Office top bosses secretly decided in April 2014 to sack forensic accountants who had found bugs in their IT system have been obtained by the BBC.

    A Post Office board sub-committee, codenamed "Project Sparrow", took the decision with the full knowledge of the government.

    Former sub-postmaster Alan Bates said it was further proof of a "total cover-up".

    The Post Office declined to comment.

    The independent forensic accountants Second Sight played a key role in exposing the scandal, finding flaws in the Horizon computer system which generated false evidence of cash shortfalls at sub-post offices, leading to wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters.

    Post Office bosses kept insisting their systems were robust.

    But they made a concession following pressure from MPs, offering to set up a mediation scheme to deal with what they said was a small number of cases.

    The documents reveal the Post Office planned to pay a total of only £1m in "token payments", or compensation, to sub-postmasters as it suppressed evidence of computer bugs in 2014.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    What on earth were these people thinking…
    That there would never be a public inquiry?
    The sad truth to the question 'did people think they would get away with x?' is that the answer is 'Yes, and they're usually correct'.

    Apart from being sniffed at a little by their trendier friends does anyone think genuine consequences are coming here?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,453
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Let's discuss it when it actually has been delivered.

    Britain has suspended negotiations for a multibillion pound trade deal with Canada in an acrimonious row over cheese.

    Kemi Badenoch, the trade secretary, told her Canadian counterpart that she could see no point in the talks continuing after Ottawa imposed a 245 per cent tariff on British stilton, cheddar and other cheese imports at the start of the month.

    @DavidGauke
    So we haven’t got a Canada-style free trade agreement with Canada?
    Canada’s answer to Liz Truss must be delighted at that tariff policy.
    Canada's support for their dairy industry is legendary, but must have decreased in recent years. When I were a lad, UK supermarkets were full of Canadian cheddar, alongside British and Irish; no more.
    That is a disgrace.
    They should look at

    PORK MARKETS!
    Canada wants to sell us pork.

    We don’t want theirs (ractopamine)

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    It is true that over the last couple of years wages have struggled to keep up with inflation but that is no longer the case, hence the strong consumption figures and consumer confidence figures. This still has 10 months to come home to people. I think it will.

    In the UK real wages are also now growing quite strongly but we have a bigger deficit to recover and it is doubtful people will be better off by the election, certainly after tax.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,002
    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited January 26
    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    Blair confessed to being a technophobe, so he would probably have just taken advice. Unfortunately it appears he took the advice of Mandelson rather than Mulgan. And of course nobody would have had the faintest idea that the PO would use Horizon to persecute innocent SPMs in the way it did.

    Even if Horizon had indeed been infallible, the way the PO investigation squad went about its business was indefensible.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,453
    Yokes said:

    What are the odds on Haley going on a POTUS run as 3rd party candidate I wonder

    She’s positioning herself for 2028
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    For the same reasons that lesbians like dildos or pacifists play HALO on their computer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive:

    Lord Frost warned he could lose whip if it emerges Tory donors who funded Yougov MRP poll predicting Labour landslide have backed Reform

    Frost met Lord True on Weds and was asked repeatedly who donors were. He refused to say

    He was warned that if it emerged donor had backed Reform he would lose whip for effectively ‘collaborating’ with another political party

    Never understood why he's such a prominent figure in any case. He's treated like a party grandee but was only very briefly relevant, and die hard brexiters are 10 a penny, it cannot be his views being uniquely popular or something.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,906
    Andy_JS said:

    "U.K. walks away from trade talks with Canada
    Sticking points include how much access U.K. producers should have to the Canadian cheese market"

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-uk-trade-cheese-1.7094817

    Interesting - are the UK Department of Whatever finally learning from the Canoodians in their Canay?

    Canada has traditionally been quite hard on trade negotiations, and post-Brexit the UK people were quite ... inexperienced. Maybe CPTPP aside.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,420
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive:

    Lord Frost warned he could lose whip if it emerges Tory donors who funded Yougov MRP poll predicting Labour landslide have backed Reform

    Frost met Lord True on Weds and was asked repeatedly who donors were. He refused to say

    He was warned that if it emerged donor had backed Reform he would lose whip for effectively ‘collaborating’ with another political party

    Funny how the Conservative Party is suddenly interested in the source of funds for various right wing think tanks (collectively known as Tufton Street). Oh wait, they're not. It's just this one poll. Never mind. As you were.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    So hands up if you thought 246 was a good score on this pitch. How’s about if you thought it was an okay score?

    India now 300/5. This test is lost.
    Yup, sadly for us they’re going to get at least 400, England should just call it 1-0 and take the weekend off.
    No faith in the Stokes era?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,002
    edited January 26
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There must be. We have been to Muslim countries vacationing and had sausages there and bacon.

    The sausages were chicken ones. Heck do them in the UK too. They are nice but the risk is they can dry out.

    Also the Bacon in Dubai, which was ace, was Turkey bacon. Tasted just like the real McCoy but healthier !!!
    The trick to breakfast in Dubai, is to make sure the hotel has proper bacon and sausages. Some do and some don’t, it depends on the demographics of their customers and the need to cook the pork in a separate area. It’s often hidden away from the main buffet in the restaurant as well, so you often have to go looking for it! I’ve eaten so much turkey bacon I’m totally sick of it.
  • DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    It is true that over the last couple of years wages have struggled to keep up with inflation but that is no longer the case, hence the strong consumption figures and consumer confidence figures. This still has 10 months to come home to people. I think it will.

    In the UK real wages are also now growing quite strongly but we have a bigger deficit to recover and it is doubtful people will be better off by the election, certainly after tax.
    Yet there are still plenty of punters who believe it will be a May election.

    Hmmm....helps to make the odds nice for the likes of me and thee.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    edited January 26
    Foxy said:



    A fascinating chart on how Gen Z males and females are politically diverging across the world.

    Perhaps South Korea is leading the way. Why would liberal young women want to have children with men who despise their values?

    The article seems not to be paywalled if clicked on via the link here:

    https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1750773579220709638?t=R4GuXfwoQu_ZwyLOE-2ptQ&s=19

    It's interesting, though in Germany the biggest gap is in support for the FDP (much higher among young men) and the Greens (much higher among young women) - at least at the last 2021 election, the FDP since having lost most of their support. The Greens and the FDP were the most popular choices among 18-29 year olds in 2021.

    I assume that this chart must put the FDP in the 'Conservative' rather than 'Liberal' category, which is probably fair in the sense they are more rightwing than leftwing, but the labels aren't necessarily accurate.

    EDIT: I see the Germany figures in the small print are from a general social survey rather than party polling
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193

    New Post Office revelations on the Beeb, and it appears again that just when you think it couldn't get any worse, it does....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    The timing is critical. I think Jo Swinson would have been in charge at the time the cover-up was planned, but of course it is very likely that subsequent Ministers would have been kept informed, even if they were not directly involved.

    In his book on the scandal, Nick Wallis expresses the view that the PO worked very closely with the Government throughout, so this is confirmation, and suggests that there is a lot more to come out still.

    Lots of interesting detail there.
    This, for example, is incontrovertible evidence that the Post Office quite deliberately and knowingly flouted the law on disclosure after this date.
    (Though it's pretty likely that was also true earlier.)
    ..A week later, on 15 July 2013, the Post Office was warned in formal advice written by its own lawyer Simon Clarke that it was in breach of its legal duties because sub-postmasters who had been prosecuted should have been told about the bugs.
  • kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Documents showing Post Office top bosses secretly decided in April 2014 to sack forensic accountants who had found bugs in their IT system have been obtained by the BBC.

    A Post Office board sub-committee, codenamed "Project Sparrow", took the decision with the full knowledge of the government.

    Former sub-postmaster Alan Bates said it was further proof of a "total cover-up".

    The Post Office declined to comment.

    The independent forensic accountants Second Sight played a key role in exposing the scandal, finding flaws in the Horizon computer system which generated false evidence of cash shortfalls at sub-post offices, leading to wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters.

    Post Office bosses kept insisting their systems were robust.

    But they made a concession following pressure from MPs, offering to set up a mediation scheme to deal with what they said was a small number of cases.

    The documents reveal the Post Office planned to pay a total of only £1m in "token payments", or compensation, to sub-postmasters as it suppressed evidence of computer bugs in 2014.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    What on earth were these people thinking…
    That there would never be a public inquiry?
    The sad truth to the question 'did people think they would get away with x?' is that the answer is 'Yes, and they're usually correct'.

    Apart from being sniffed at a little by their trendier friends does anyone think genuine consequences are coming here?
    Depends on the extent to which Government can be shown to be involved.

    If Vennells has evidence that she was carrying out Government orders, she is bomb-proof - not in a court of law, of course, but in practice, she's safe.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,420
    Reconsider size of your forces, head of US navy tells Britain
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reconsider-size-of-your-forces-head-of-us-navy-tells-britain-06pwpkk37 (£££)

    Four decades of Tory defence cuts.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    No sign of the Chinese economy slowing down here. The Chinese tourist is back en masse. Airport heaving. Hotels sold out

    Look at the number of Chinese tourists you have seen today. Let that be the numerator. The denominator is 1,412,000,000.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,652
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    In other news, I see the magnificently mediocre Lord David Frost has become the latest high profile Tory to come out in favour of a new Trump presidency, so putting pursuit of culture war ahead of foundational UK national security interests. There is a madness gripping the Tories right now. As someone who does care about this country's future, I genuinely hope it is temporary.

    Trump is not even popular with most Tories, its odd some figures think that's the way to go.
    Does anyone in the UK actually like Trump, apart from Farage and friends? Sure there’s many Conservatives who consider him the least-worst option, which isn’t really the same. There’s also a surprising number of Americans coming to the same conclusion.
    Approx 15% in the UK like Trump. There'll be a very strong overlap with Reform support.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Cauldron vegan sausages are quite authentic
  • Nigelb said:

    New Post Office revelations on the Beeb, and it appears again that just when you think it couldn't get any worse, it does....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    The timing is critical. I think Jo Swinson would have been in charge at the time the cover-up was planned, but of course it is very likely that subsequent Ministers would have been kept informed, even if they were not directly involved.

    In his book on the scandal, Nick Wallis expresses the view that the PO worked very closely with the Government throughout, so this is confirmation, and suggests that there is a lot more to come out still.

    Lots of interesting detail there.
    This, for example, is incontrovertible evidence that the Post Office quite deliberately and knowingly flouted the law on disclosure after this date.
    (Though it's pretty likely that was also true earlier.)
    ..A week later, on 15 July 2013, the Post Office was warned in formal advice written by its own lawyer Simon Clarke that it was in breach of its legal duties because sub-postmasters who had been prosecuted should have been told about the bugs.
    Yes, Clarke's advice and the sacking of Second Sight are probably the two most important moments in the Scandal. I do not see how responsibilities in connection with either can be fudged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Given the vast number of lies within this scandal, do we know for certain either way that ministers were (or weren't) fully informed by their civil servants - and will evidence for that be available to the enquiry, or does ministerial advice remain confidential ?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited January 26
    Great win for British Cheese today. Those nasty North Americans won't be so keen to get their hands on our glorious cheese varietals after the trade deal fell through.

    This is precisely why we voted Brexit. To save our cheese selection (£5 extra).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Documents showing Post Office top bosses secretly decided in April 2014 to sack forensic accountants who had found bugs in their IT system have been obtained by the BBC.

    A Post Office board sub-committee, codenamed "Project Sparrow", took the decision with the full knowledge of the government.

    Former sub-postmaster Alan Bates said it was further proof of a "total cover-up".

    The Post Office declined to comment.

    The independent forensic accountants Second Sight played a key role in exposing the scandal, finding flaws in the Horizon computer system which generated false evidence of cash shortfalls at sub-post offices, leading to wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters.

    Post Office bosses kept insisting their systems were robust.

    But they made a concession following pressure from MPs, offering to set up a mediation scheme to deal with what they said was a small number of cases.

    The documents reveal the Post Office planned to pay a total of only £1m in "token payments", or compensation, to sub-postmasters as it suppressed evidence of computer bugs in 2014.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    What on earth were these people thinking…
    That there would never be a public inquiry?
    The sad truth to the question 'did people think they would get away with x?' is that the answer is 'Yes, and they're usually correct'.

    Apart from being sniffed at a little by their trendier friends does anyone think genuine consequences are coming here?
    Oh a few of the small fry will fry. That’s what they are for.

    The bigwigs will get the better, higher paid jobs their station in life entitles them to.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Interesting use of the word "benefit" there, as a doctor.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    It’s not as though sausages or burgers look like animals though. I don’t see the strangeness in having non meat versions at all really.

    There are vegan steaks that ooze fake blood, that’s a bit more strange
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,420
    Abandoned French boy, nine, stole tomatoes to survive in unheated flat but attended school every day
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/24/boy-nine-stole-tomatoes-to-live-model-pupil/ (£££)

    I can't quite decide whether this is heartwarming or depressing.
  • Nigelb said:

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Given the vast number of lies within this scandal, do we know for certain either way that ministers were (or weren't) fully informed by their civil servants - and will evidence for that be available to the enquiry, or does ministerial advice remain confidential ?
    That sort of stuff is mostly beyond the remit of the Inquiry, but Vennells will certainly be testifying, and that will be her opportunity to explain the extent to which she was being guided by Government and the Civil Service.

    She may of course cover up for them. I think she will. That is my inference from the disgraceful preferential appointments she received in 2019, and of course the gong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,710
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
    No such thing as a glorious tomato’!

    Good morning one and all. Except some of the PO Board from the 2010’s, who must have nightmares about their forthcoming date with the Inquiry.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790

    Reconsider size of your forces, head of US navy tells Britain
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reconsider-size-of-your-forces-head-of-us-navy-tells-britain-06pwpkk37 (£££)

    Four decades of Tory defence cuts.

    The defence cuts in the 1990s were referred to as the 'peace dividend'.

    As there's been increasing less peace since September 2001 the 'profit' which allowed that 'peace dividend' to be paid has long since disappeared.
  • @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
    That, Andy, is a premature judgement, in my opinion.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,474

    Abandoned French boy, nine, stole tomatoes to survive in unheated flat but attended school every day
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/24/boy-nine-stole-tomatoes-to-live-model-pupil/ (£££)

    I can't quite decide whether this is heartwarming or depressing.

    Ditto: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68055420 Georgian twins separated at north are reunited, revealing massive baby theft was going on in Georgian hospitals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193
    Foxy said:



    A fascinating chart on how Gen Z males and females are politically diverging across the world.

    Perhaps South Korea is leading the way. Why would liberal young women want to have children with men who despise their values?

    The article seems not to be paywalled if clicked on via the link here:

    https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1750773579220709638?t=R4GuXfwoQu_ZwyLOE-2ptQ&s=19

    And of course such an ideological division is likely to become self reinforcing beyond a certain point.

    Is there a remedy ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,002
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    So hands up if you thought 246 was a good score on this pitch. How’s about if you thought it was an okay score?

    India now 300/5. This test is lost.
    Yup, sadly for us they’re going to get at least 400, England should just call it 1-0 and take the weekend off.
    No faith in the Stokes era?
    I have little faith in anyone being able to win a series in India at the moment. They’re at the top of their game, and have invested their massive cricketing wealth into producing possibly the best team since the 1980s WIndies.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
    That, Andy, is a premature judgement, in my opinion.
    I hope you're right.
    It would be good to conclude I was overly cynical here and everyone involved turns out to carry at least part of the can.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,773
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:



    A fascinating chart on how Gen Z males and females are politically diverging across the world.

    Perhaps South Korea is leading the way. Why would liberal young women want to have children with men who despise their values?

    The article seems not to be paywalled if clicked on via the link here:

    https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1750773579220709638?t=R4GuXfwoQu_ZwyLOE-2ptQ&s=19

    And of course such an ideological division is likely to become self reinforcing beyond a certain point.

    Is there a remedy ?
    A lot of alt-right fucc bois are going to have master the ancient and honourable Royal Navy art of making an artificial clout out of a rubber glove.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,342

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
    No such thing as a glorious tomato’!

    Good morning one and all. Except some of the PO Board from the 2010’s, who must have nightmares about their forthcoming date with the Inquiry.
    Morning OKC!

    Just wondering why some are so sniffy about vegan or vegetarian sausages. Many mass produced sausages are almost vegetarian - and fried or grilled sausages of vegetable food have been in world cuisine for millennia. Hara bhara kabab for instance.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    edited January 26
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    You get a sense in the UK and the US that inequality has grown to the extent that a plurality of people are insulated almost entirely from economic conditions, good or bad, poor or rich.

    Consider poverty in the UK, which is unusual compared to the Nordic countries because it effects so many who are in work. Or COVID restrictions, which saw millions rely on furlough payments while richer people saw record savings rates. Unemployment, earnings, productivity growth - they all count for very little for net household incomes.
  • @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
    That, Andy, is a premature judgement, in my opinion.
    I hope you're right.
    It would be good to conclude I was overly cynical here and everyone involved turns out to carry at least part of the can.
    Not questioning your judgement, mate, but this story has a long way to run.

    The period around and after the Clarke advice and Second Sight sacking has yet to be thoroughly scrutinised. It will be. We wil know a lot more when it has been.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    I think it's best if woke venison sausages are not mentioned again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,600
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    No sign of the Chinese economy slowing down here. The Chinese tourist is back en masse. Airport heaving. Hotels sold out

    Look at the number of Chinese tourists you have seen today. Let that be the numerator. The denominator is 1,412,000,000.
    It’s not just me observing it

    It’s really rare for so many hotels in khlong toei to sell out - or double their prices because they are close to selling out

    But a couple of hotel managers have told me why: Chinese tourists for the Chinese new year. They are back.in style for the first time since Covid. Billions of them - which is great for destinations like Thailand (and even Cambodia to a lesser extent)

    They must all have saved so much money. Locked down for three solid years. They are spending it now on hookers and weed and pad Thai and Gucci
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    I think it's best if woke venison sausages are not mentioned again.
    Tofu eating wokerati
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
    No such thing as a glorious tomato’!

    Good morning one and all. Except some of the PO Board from the 2010’s, who must have nightmares about their forthcoming date with the Inquiry.
    Morning OKC!

    Just wondering why some are so sniffy about vegan or vegetarian sausages. Many mass produced sausages are almost vegetarian - and fried or grilled sausages of vegetable food have been in world cuisine for millennia. Hara bhara kabab for instance.
    The Heck 100% pork sausages are very good indeed. Sadly they have a huge amount if salt in them, so can be only an occasional treat for me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    You get a sense in the UK and the US that inequality has grown to the extent that a plurality of people are insulated almost entirely from economic conditions, good or bad, poor or rich.

    Consider poverty in the UK, which is unusual compared to the Nordic countries because it effects so many who are in work. Or COVID restrictions, which saw millions rely on furlough payments while richer people saw record savings rates. Unemployment, earnings, productivity growth - they all count for very little for net household incomes.
    I think this affects economic growth as well.

    In this country there are many millions who are doing very well - they might have the means to do better but they don't have the motivation.

    There are also many millions who are struggling - they have the motivation to do better but they don't have the means.

    There are relatively few who have both the means and the motivation to do better and its this group which drives economic growth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    This is quite a story:

    Georgia's stolen children:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68055420
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865

    Yokes said:

    What are the odds on Haley going on a POTUS run as 3rd party candidate I wonder

    She’s positioning herself for 2028
    Someone from the Republican camp needs to do their duty and make sure enough GOP voters don't vote for Trump that he loses. They could take their lead from their friends in Reform who are kindly undertaking that task here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193
    edited January 26
    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514
  • https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/

    In our latest poll, conducted on the 24th and 25th of January 2024, we’ve observed a small reversal of fortunes in the political landscape, with the Labour Party regaining its lost ground while the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats have both experienced declines. The Reform Party has maintained its support, the Green Party has enjoyed a slight increase, and the SNP along with other parties remain steady.

    Here are the latest figures, compared to the poll conducted on the 17th and 18th of January 2024:

    Lab: 44% (+1)
    Con: 24% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
    Reform: 9% (=)
    Green: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
    Others: 3% (=)

    Public confidence in the government’s ability to address the country’s priorities shows a net decrease, pointing to growing scepticism with a net minus 25%:

    Confident: 34%
    Not Confident: 59%

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,773
    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    UK's Second Best Friend status under threat!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:



    A fascinating chart on how Gen Z males and females are politically diverging across the world.

    Perhaps South Korea is leading the way. Why would liberal young women want to have children with men who despise their values?

    The article seems not to be paywalled if clicked on via the link here:

    https://twitter.com/DinaPomeranz/status/1750773579220709638?t=R4GuXfwoQu_ZwyLOE-2ptQ&s=19

    And of course such an ideological division is likely to become self reinforcing beyond a certain point.

    Is there a remedy ?
    Interesting but not enough information. It just isn't true that people fall into discrete packages of liberal or conservative views, and aside from a couple of issues currently in the headlines, it is not easy to work out what the actual gender differences are.

    If the real difference is that men are a bit tougher on the subject of migrants they have never met than women are, that tells you little. If it means that men think it's fine to assault women and that #MeToo is therefore wrong, it matters a lot.

    It is quality of data that counts not quantity.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Or go to Cumbria and look for the independent butcher with a queue.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    UK's Second Best Friend status under threat!
    As a percentage of GDP, that's very similar to what the U.S. gave last year - and way above the UK contribution.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,945
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
    I am afraid this is the norm for all these scandals. It is 12 years since the one I am involved in came to light and have been repeatedly batted away by numerous ministers on the advice of their civil servants. You get sent around in endless loops. One department boots it to another, then another, it then gets booted to a ombudsman who then boots it to another who then boots it back to the Govt. Nobody actually does anything. Attempts to get the law changed to make someone investigate it get blocked (2 private members bills, in addition to 2 parliamentary debates). Finally just through luck the National Audit Office decide off their own bat to investigate which leads to Parliamentary Accounts Committee investigation. Both find in our favour. Yet still nothing happens.

    I am afraid this is the norm. Civil Servants block and ministers act as their puppets (FOI requests show they respond with letters identical to those drafted by the civil servants and no questions by the ministers of their civil servants are ever recorded).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Heck 97% Pork
    INGREDIENTS: British Pork (97%), Seasoning (Salt, Gluten Free Flour, Spices, Sugar, Preservative (Sodium SULPHITE**), Antioxidant (Ascorbic Acid)). Filled into Beef Collagen Casings.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Or go to Cumbria and look for the independent butcher with a queue.
    I was going to add something like that - find a butcher you trust who makes their own on the premises.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    Oh, there's no doubt that - after exhausting all the other possibilities - Germany is now very much doing the right thing.

    It gives me some hope that, even if Trump wins in November, Ukraine can prevail.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Heck 97% Pork
    INGREDIENTS: British Pork (97%), Seasoning (Salt, Gluten Free Flour, Spices, Sugar, Preservative (Sodium SULPHITE**), Antioxidant (Ascorbic Acid)). Filled into Beef Collagen Casings.
    That sounds better. We are now trying to follow the dictum: avoid foods with ingredients you don't recognise or wouldn't find in your larder.

    Impossible to do that 100% but I do increasingly worry about the effect on our bodies of some of these ingredients we never evolved to digest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,193
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    Oh, there's no doubt that - after exhausting all the other possibilities - Germany is now very much doing the right thing.

    It gives me some hope that, even if Trump wins in November, Ukraine can prevail.
    That would depend on the rest of Europe.
    There was some recent chatter that Hungary might drop its opposition to the €50bn in proposed EU aid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,002
    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    Good on them, well done Germany. The more the merrier as far as kit is concerned, anything the Ukranians can get their hand on from Western countries, is likely to be a lot better than whatever they have now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147
    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.

    Less of that in the South West by all accounts.

    So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.

    The London exurbs, especially Surrey and South Cambridgeshire, appear to be swinging strongly against the Tories. It would be interesting to hear what @NickPalmer thinks about the seats on his patch.
    Nick is a big advocate of tactical voting (cf. Mid Beds) and will therefore surely be voting LibDem....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Which public spirited PBer was providing a regular rolling-average of recent polls, and has he/she updated recently?

    I sense that Labour are building a bigger lead since the New Year.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Or go to Cumbria and look for the independent butcher with a queue.
    I was going to add something like that - find a butcher you trust who makes their own on the premises.
    Our kids, eldest in particular, have become complete sausage snobs. Dislike even the fancy supermarket ones now, only like the ones from the local butcher. To be fair, we only tend to buy from there and eldest's school - very close to butcher - is also sourcing all its meat from there since they took catering in-house two years back. Interestingly, they've taken the approach of only quality meat and so do less of it, probably 2-3 school lunches per week have meat, but it's the good stuff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147

    Documents showing Post Office top bosses secretly decided in April 2014 to sack forensic accountants who had found bugs in their IT system have been obtained by the BBC.

    A Post Office board sub-committee, codenamed "Project Sparrow", took the decision with the full knowledge of the government.

    Former sub-postmaster Alan Bates said it was further proof of a "total cover-up".

    The Post Office declined to comment.

    The independent forensic accountants Second Sight played a key role in exposing the scandal, finding flaws in the Horizon computer system which generated false evidence of cash shortfalls at sub-post offices, leading to wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters.

    Post Office bosses kept insisting their systems were robust.

    But they made a concession following pressure from MPs, offering to set up a mediation scheme to deal with what they said was a small number of cases.

    The documents reveal the Post Office planned to pay a total of only £1m in "token payments", or compensation, to sub-postmasters as it suppressed evidence of computer bugs in 2014.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68079300

    What on earth were these people thinking…
    As evidenced more widely, the only explanation is that they genuinely thought they could see the whole thing off, given their deep pockets and available expertise. And the worse things got, the more they doubled down, until we arrived at where we are.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    Good on them, well done Germany. The more the merrier as far as kit is concerned, anything the Ukranians can get their hand on from Western countries, is likely to be a lot better than whatever they have now.
    I don't think it's out of the goodness of their heart. If Trump goes for appeasement (as seems to be the case), there is a real chance now of Russian influence knocking on their doors.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
    Yes, although the quoted extract is unfair in as much as the then government did pull out of the project itself, leaving the PO the unenviable choice of cutting some very significant losses or ploughing on with Fujitsu
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
    No such thing as a glorious tomato’!

    Good morning one and all. Except some of the PO Board from the 2010’s, who must have nightmares about their forthcoming date with the Inquiry.
    Morning OKC!

    Just wondering why some are so sniffy about vegan or vegetarian sausages. Many mass produced sausages are almost vegetarian - and fried or grilled sausages of vegetable food have been in world cuisine for millennia. Hara bhara kabab for instance.
    Must be said that at random parties/work events, the vegetarian sausage rolls are generally a safer bet than the mystery meat ones.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/

    In our latest poll, conducted on the 24th and 25th of January 2024, we’ve observed a small reversal of fortunes in the political landscape, with the Labour Party regaining its lost ground while the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats have both experienced declines. The Reform Party has maintained its support, the Green Party has enjoyed a slight increase, and the SNP along with other parties remain steady.

    Here are the latest figures, compared to the poll conducted on the 17th and 18th of January 2024:

    Lab: 44% (+1)
    Con: 24% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
    Reform: 9% (=)
    Green: 7% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
    Others: 3% (=)

    Public confidence in the government’s ability to address the country’s priorities shows a net decrease, pointing to growing scepticism with a net minus 25%:

    Confident: 34%
    Not Confident: 59%

    34% confident is a very weird number. If they are confident, why not vote Tory? Or do they think the Tories are doing great but Labour will do even better???

    I would have expected about 15% confident.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,906
    edited January 26
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany seriously stepping up.

    Large press release by the German MOD summarizing the planned 7.5 billion euros in armament deliveries to Ukraine in 2024:

    - IRIS-T SLM air defense systems

    - Gepard SPAAGs

    - Additional artillery systems with over 230,000 rounds of ammunition

    - More than 80 Leopard 1A5 MBTs

    - Additional armored personnel carriers (Marder)

    - More armored engineering vehicles (Pionierpanzer)

    - More armored bridge laying vehicles (Biber)

    - 450 protected vehicles

    - Mine clearance systems (Wisent)

    - drones

    - radar systems

    - Reconnaissance systems

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1750796772224475514

    UK's Second Best Friend status under threat!
    As a percentage of GDP, that's very similar to what the U.S. gave last year - and way above the UK contribution.
    If we are talking in political terms, I am a little surprised how effusive the Ua Govt has continued to be about UK support - but it remains that both main parties here are solid and consistent in support, which is valuable amongst previous blowing-about-in-the-wind in Germany, continued elsewhere.

    Even if the Govt is being somewhat parsimonious and quite slow, the political support has been very solid and there have been quite a few crucial contributions to keeping timely support in place - from the work since 2014 and MANPADS before the invasion, through to setting up logistics co-ordination, triggering new types of weapon supplied. And Ben Wallace being forward enough on supplying aircraft that he put Mr Biden's nose out of joint which cost him potential big jobs.

    I think Shapps has been doing smoke and mirrors, and I would not trust him as far as I can throw an aircraft carrier with my little toe - but imo significant credit is due. This may be the single policy area they are still getting sort-of-right.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Yokes said:

    What are the odds on Haley going on a POTUS run as 3rd party candidate I wonder

    Zero.

    As others have said, she's looking both to 2028 and the possibility of a Trump fall.

    But, even more importantly, sore-loser rules and filing deadlines mean that option is pretty much *already* closed off. That's why Kennedy jumped out of the Democrat race last year to run as an independent: you have to make that call early because procedure prevents it once the contest gets going in earnest.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,034

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
    That, Andy, is a premature judgement, in my opinion.
    I hope you're right.
    It would be good to conclude I was overly cynical here and everyone involved turns out to carry at least part of the can.
    Not questioning your judgement, mate, but this story has a long way to run.

    The period around and after the Clarke advice and Second Sight sacking has yet to be thoroughly scrutinised. It will be. We wil know a lot more when it has been.
    Hope so.
    Political-fallout-wise, if the story does lead to a backlash, then the Tories (especially in the Blue Wall) will hurt the most - because they seem to be the only ones trying to ride it for political benefit.
    When someone does that and it comes out that they're as guilty as those they're blaming, and it looks like they've been trying to actually profit from it all, then the backlash can be severe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,342
    edited January 26
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Linda McCartney sausages are great, particularly the Rosemary ones. I prefer them to regular sausages for toad in the hole, but they do benefit from being fried rather than grilled.
    Yes, they are nice if they are the ones with red onion as well. But aren't they vegetarian rather than vegan.

    Try cooking them in an air fryer after lightly spraying cooking oil on them. You get a decent result.

    They are also great with the glorious tomato.
    No such thing as a glorious tomato’!

    Good morning one and all. Except some of the PO Board from the 2010’s, who must have nightmares about their forthcoming date with the Inquiry.
    Morning OKC!

    Just wondering why some are so sniffy about vegan or vegetarian sausages. Many mass produced sausages are almost vegetarian - and fried or grilled sausages of vegetable food have been in world cuisine for millennia. Hara bhara kabab for instance.
    Must be said that at random parties/work events, the vegetarian sausage rolls are generally a safer bet than the mystery meat ones.
    There's that too. I remember only too well how anyone who had been reading, like me, about prion diseases even before the BSE news was put off the mechanically recovered meat slurry ones for a very long time. I remember causing my non-scientific colleagues considerable amusement by remarking unintentionally loudly at a party - one of those silences that happen at random - that I only ever ate protein from identifiable animals when declining the cocktail sausages in favour of the prawn tempura canapes.

    PS Thinking about that crisis still makes me sweat - how it could have been so much worse. That village in north Leicestershre with a hotspot from [edit] a supplier or whatever it was - not sure - was really worrying. I see there is concern in NA about elk/deer etc. hunters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
    No.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
    No.
    Maybe.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,040
    edited January 26
    Nigelb said:

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Given the vast number of lies within this scandal, do we know for certain either way that ministers were (or weren't) fully informed by their civil servants - and will evidence for that be available to the enquiry, or does ministerial advice remain confidential ?
    Ed Davey's defence was that he was lied to, or misled. Which is perfectly plausible given what we know about the scandal.

    His sin was how he handled it when questioned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Leon said:

    So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)

    Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west

    We have to toughen up

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/26/chagos-islanders-stunned-as-david-cameron-rules-out-return

    Excellent news.

    We should grab back Aden as well.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    On topic, I note that while Mike mentions that the Tories have only held 35% of their 2019GE voters, the Lib Dems have kept even fewer: just 33%. Despite that, they'll still make gains.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,906
    edited January 26

    MattW said:

    Wages of Woke appear to be coming at expense of CUP?

    Also note that there is virtually no gender gap for Conservatives, compared with mild one for Labour (leaning female) and strong one for Reform (lurching male).

    There's a thought. So Reform UK are the "Lurching male", which seems about right.

    We have Tory, Lab, SNP and LibDem.

    Which is who for the others?

    (Good morning everyone.)



    Lurch was incredibly reliable, sensible and generally a rock for all the others. Not sure RefUK meets any of those criteria.
    Initially I was trying to alliterate off Lurkalot (see Frankie Howard, Up The Chastity Belt), but it didn't quite fit.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,590
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
    No.
    +1 - it’s remarkable how many people (in the IS) don’t seem to be noticing how much better off they are - because some costs have increased significantly.

    From what I hear eating out has got a lot more expensive and if you look back and think in 2018 we eat out every weekend and now we don’t, people feel worse off.

    So the economy isn’t going to be enough for Biden
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,420
    edited January 26
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
    Yes, although the quoted extract is unfair in as much as the then government did pull out of the project itself, leaving the PO the unenviable choice of cutting some very significant losses or ploughing on with Fujitsu
    One other point is that there was no tried and trusted, off-the-shelf alternative available. And even later on, if a large company bought SAP or a similar business automation system, it was a standing joke that it would need an army of contractors working for years to customise it for that company. So the choice for the Post Office would have been either to write off Horizon and start again from scratch, or to plough on with something that was at least 80 per cent ready.

    ETA so the original decision to use Horizon was rational and defensible. The scandal came later.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    TimS said:

    At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.

    Less of that in the South West by all accounts.

    So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.

    Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    On topic, I note that while Mike mentions that the Tories have only held 35% of their 2019GE voters, the Lib Dems have kept even fewer: just 33%. Despite that, they'll still make gains.

    Lost most of their anti-Corbyn votes and replaced them with anti-Tory votes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,906
    edited January 26

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:
    Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
    Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
    There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
    Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.

    Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?

    Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
    Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
    Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality.
    Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
    Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:

    Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages
    Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.

    Tesco Finest Pork Sausages
    Pork (90%), Water, Rice Flour, Potato Starch, Salt, Acidity Regulator (Calcium Lactate), White Pepper, Sage, Stabilisers (Tetrasodium Diphosphate, Disodium Diphosphate), Coriander, Preservative (Sodium Metabisulphite), Nutmeg, Dextrose, Bamboo Fibre, Caramelised Sugar Syrup, Colour (Paprika Extract).
    (Bamboo fibre ffs?)

    Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages
    Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
    Heck 97% Pork
    INGREDIENTS: British Pork (97%), Seasoning (Salt, Gluten Free Flour, Spices, Sugar, Preservative (Sodium SULPHITE**), Antioxidant (Ascorbic Acid)). Filled into Beef Collagen Casings.
    That sounds better. We are now trying to follow the dictum: avoid foods with ingredients you don't recognise or wouldn't find in your larder.

    Impossible to do that 100% but I do increasingly worry about the effect on our bodies of some of these ingredients we never evolved to digest.
    It was a revelation making sausages at home in the past, & the ingredients list.

    Perhaps one (or several) to buy online delivered by post.
  • Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Given the vast number of lies within this scandal, do we know for certain either way that ministers were (or weren't) fully informed by their civil servants - and will evidence for that be available to the enquiry, or does ministerial advice remain confidential ?
    Ed Davey's defence was that he was lied to, or misled. Which is perfectly plausible given what we know about the scandal.

    His sin was how he handled it when questioned.
    I'd say it lack of curiosity at the time, but in that he was little different to all the others with the possible exception of Norman Lamb, who wasn't in post long enough to make a difference.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124
    A

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
    Yes, although the quoted extract is unfair in as much as the then government did pull out of the project itself, leaving the PO the unenviable choice of cutting some very significant losses or ploughing on with Fujitsu
    One other point is that there was no tried and trusted, off-the-shelf alternative available. And even later on, if a large company bought SAP or a similar business automation system, it was a standing joke that it would need an army of contractors working for years to customise it for that company. So the choice for the Post Office would have been either to write off Horizon and start again from scratch, or to plough on with something that was at least 80 per cent ready.

    ETA so the original decision to use Horizon was rational and defensible. The scandal came later.
    Yes. The idea of Horizon was fine - a standard thing for such organisations.

    The execution was beyond terrible. Followed by a multi-level, ever growing coverup that magnified and extended the disaster.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
    No.
    +1 - it’s remarkable how many people (in the IS) don’t seem to be noticing how much better off they are - because some costs have increased significantly.

    From what I hear eating out has got a lot more expensive and if you look back and think in 2018 we eat out every weekend and now we don’t, people feel worse off.

    So the economy isn’t going to be enough for Biden
    I think this is fairly simple: the West has gone through a period of inflation, partly due to the Ukraine war impacting energy prices, partly due to interest rates being held too low for too long, and partly due to covid bounce back.

    Wages - as always - lag this.

    It is possible that wages will continue to outpace inflation this year, and enough people feel better to tip the scales in Biden's favor. It's also entirely possible that this doesn't happen.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Might not make much difference.
    The Tories have successfully pointed the finger overwhelmingly at Davey (despite us clarifying here that all three parties and multiple politicians dropped the ball at least and worse than that in cases) and weaponised the horrible situation successfully.
    Unless they get a lashback from having gone too far down that route (which seems unlikely now), they should come out of it as the political beneficiaries.
    That, Andy, is a premature judgement, in my opinion.
    I hope you're right.
    It would be good to conclude I was overly cynical here and everyone involved turns out to carry at least part of the can.
    Here is my article - https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/what-are-ministers-for/

    All parties have their hands dipped in blood. But as the latest revelations in the last day show, the government appointed director was involved in the decision to sack Second Sight in 2014 - see the unredacted minutes of Project Sparrow which have now been revealed. So the government's hands are all over the cover up. As was always going to be shown to be the case.

    Post Office management would never have done what it did had it not had government backing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,152

    Leon said:

    So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)

    Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west

    We have to toughen up

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/26/chagos-islanders-stunned-as-david-cameron-rules-out-return

    Excellent news.

    We should grab back Aden as well.
    Perhaps Persia, Abbysinia and Mesopotamia while we're at it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,124
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    US economy grows 3.3% on an annualised basis in the 4th quarter and by 2.5% in 2023 as a whole. The latest growth was driven by consumption and reflects a surge in consumer confidence: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows.html

    Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.

    I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.

    Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.

    The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

    Also, Q3 annualised growth was 5.2%, so the Q4 number is sharply down.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/opinions/2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-key-question-avlon/index.html
    While I generally agree with your point, wages are now growing significantly ahead of inflation in the US:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/#:~:text=Wages in the U.S.,of even higher inflation rates.

    I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
    No.
    +1 - it’s remarkable how many people (in the IS) don’t seem to be noticing how much better off they are - because some costs have increased significantly.

    From what I hear eating out has got a lot more expensive and if you look back and think in 2018 we eat out every weekend and now we don’t, people feel worse off.

    So the economy isn’t going to be enough for Biden
    I think this is fairly simple: the West has gone through a period of inflation, partly due to the Ukraine war impacting energy prices, partly due to interest rates being held too low for too long, and partly due to covid bounce back.

    Wages - as always - lag this.

    It is possible that wages will continue to outpace inflation this year, and enough people feel better to tip the scales in Biden's favor. It's also entirely possible that this doesn't happen.
    Ironically, the rise in wages in various very low end jobs have massively affected prices in certain industries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,600

    Leon said:

    So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)

    Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west

    We have to toughen up

    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/26/chagos-islanders-stunned-as-david-cameron-rules-out-return

    Excellent news.

    We should grab back Aden as well.
    Perhaps Persia, Abbysinia and Mesopotamia while we're at it.
    Ideally, Persia before they get nukes. That gives us about 3 months
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,600
    edited January 26
    ALSO, we should not only refuse to "loan" the Elgin marbles to the ungrateful Greeks, we should send an expeditonary force to Greece to seize MORE antiquities, on the salient and frankly inarguable grounds that we are British, and they are not

    We could start with the Antikythera Mechanism, which would look great in its own crystal box under the statue of Clive of India

    Then move on to the Levant
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.

    The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.

    The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...

    1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess. :disappointed:
    Yes, although the quoted extract is unfair in as much as the then government did pull out of the project itself, leaving the PO the unenviable choice of cutting some very significant losses or ploughing on with Fujitsu
    One other point is that there was no tried and trusted, off-the-shelf alternative available. And even later on, if a large company bought SAP or a similar business automation system, it was a standing joke that it would need an army of contractors working for years to customise it for that company. So the choice for the Post Office would have been either to write off Horizon and start again from scratch, or to plough on with something that was at least 80 per cent ready.

    ETA so the original decision to use Horizon was rational and defensible. The scandal came later.
    True (RM later bought SAP payroll, but that's another story....). But the fact that the system had originally been designed around the benefits card, which was dropped midway, does appear to have contributed to the program being unfit for purpose.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    edited January 26

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    @kle4

    Ms Cyclefree produced a useful list of relevant Ministers over the period of the scandal. I can't trace it now. If you can, perhaps you could repost it here?

    I recall that Swinson was in charge about this time, following on from Sir Ed, Norman Lamb, and Jenny Willott. I suspect that Ed is relatively blameless, despite what the press might have you believe, and Norman Lamb is one of the few Ministers to get a favorable word or two from Alan Bates.

    Swinson, I think, has problems, as indeed does every subsequent Minister right through to the time the ITV series started and government began to notice that something, somewhere, had gone terribly wrong.

    Given the vast number of lies within this scandal, do we know for certain either way that ministers were (or weren't) fully informed by their civil servants - and will evidence for that be available to the enquiry, or does ministerial advice remain confidential ?
    Ed Davey's defence was that he was lied to, or misled. Which is perfectly plausible given what we know about the scandal.

    His sin was how he handled it when questioned.
    I'd say it lack of curiosity at the time, but in that he was little different to all the others with the possible exception of Norman Lamb, who wasn't in post long enough to make a difference.
    Let's ask an obvious question: does anyone really think that senior Post Office managers from the Chair down would have embarked on aggressive and expensive litigation to shut down the subpostmasters, would have sacked Second Sight, would have tried to cover this up if they had not had the backing of their owner and 100% funder, the government?

    Of course not.

    The cover up goes right to the heart of government: whether it was because Ministers were lied to or because they were uncurious or because they did not want to confront the consequences or a mix of all these hardly matters. This was an abuse of power by the government - an abuse of power prolonged and made worse by a determined attempt to cover it up or limit or deny its scale and extent and to make it as hard as possible for those suffering it to obtain compensation.

    That decade old cover up and denial is still going on, as exemplified by the PO witnesses who are still refusing to accept the courts' verdict, by the Post Office which still believes many of its subpostmasters are guilty, by a Post Office management which still does not accept that it has never been able to prove that any crimes at all were committed let alone committed by subpostmasters, which is in denial about the reality that it is it which has extorted - through lies - monies it has never been owed and used that to enrich itself and those working for it.

    The Post Office is a corporate racketeer.
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