The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll – politicalbetting.com
The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll – politicalbetting.com
The most frightening figure for the Tories is that just 35% of GE2019 CON voters still back the party.
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Also note that there is virtually no gender gap for Conservatives, compared with mild one for Labour (leaning female) and strong one for Reform (lurching male).
Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?
"He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."
Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.
https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Only one thing for it; fall on your sword Con safe seat holders
Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.
The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
it? I looked at two more YouGovs and it always seems to be around that mark
I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
FPTP. You gotta love it.
The idea the Tories will not only retain seats in Scotland but even possibly gain one, when they might drop below 200 overall, is shocking enough to hear even if it doesn't happen.
"True justice has not been served today".
Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.
Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne
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https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The prosecution had no evidence at all that the defendant had the relevant state of mind to be guilty of murder. Defence and prosecution psychiatrists all said the same thing. It is fundamental to the rule of law that you can't proceed against someone if you know at the start that you lack the evidence which would take the case beyond the close of the prosecution.
BTW if he had been convicted of murder he would have been sent to prison and within days transferred to a special hospital. An appeal would probably reopen the medical evidence and reduce the conviction to manslaughter.
It is sad and shameful that the same forensic care was not given to Mrs Goggins and her postmaster friends.
The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.
Boris Johnson won England 47-34 in December 2019 so that's a 20.5% swing from Conservative to Labour while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 11.5%.
The swing in Clacton (without Farage) was 24.5% offering some credibility to the poll numbers.
However, I'm a long way from convinced....
From these figs then some really rough reading for the Cons. Even the 50-64 group who *really* should be their target are strongly breaking for Labour. Only 65+ prefer the Blues, and even then not by a vast amount.
For Labour, looks like SKS has shed the Corbots but attracted a *lot* of others (or at least, been decent enough to attract those who are sufficiently repelled by the Tories) - a lot of LD votes as well, which I’m massively generalising by ascribing to people are returning to a less alarming Labour.
It is hard to see how an autumn election helps here - not so much on their left front, but on their right. RefUK will just get more momentum, perhaps even properly recruit The Nige. Annihilation beckons.
It is still useful. Murder carries a mandatory life sentence. Where a brutally abused wife deliberately kills a wicked husband but not in self defence we need justice but not a life sentence. Manslaughter does the job.
(BTW Attempted murder remains very hard to prove as, unlike murder, it requires an intent to kill.)
"New images confirm the #MarsHelicopter sustained rotor damage during Flight 72. Our helicopter has flown its final flight.
Ingenuity defied the odds and captured our hearts. #ThanksIngenuity for showing us what’s possible when we dare mighty things."
https://twitter.com/NASAJPL/status/1750604002331406713
Not nearly as much as with the Tories. But just the dial shifting a bit.
They’re arguing against the prevailing wind though.
As a default many working people do want lower taxes, and in many situations I think people understand and appreciate the argument that lower taxes can be a good thing.
BUT:
We live in a society where it feels like treasured institutions and services that we all took for granted are in a state of decay. Plenty of people I know would gladly pay a little more in tax if they felt they were going to get a better NHS, or railway, or school for their children, or council support. This is the backdrop to this election (and indeed I would suggest much of the last 5-6 years).
The Tories won’t win over working voters by making the low taxes = growth argument. Truss (perhaps rightly) made it, but cocked up the implementation, and now it is discredited. In time, those arguments may rise again, but at the moment, the mood isnt with them.
Honestly, the thought of what he might say or do when the Washington and Georgia cases come up for trial should be enough to send world popcorn prices to a level that would bankrupt an oligarch.
The most frightening statistic is 14% amongst the age 50-64.
Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.
The Tories have gone from being the Party Of The Homeowner to the Party Of The Own-Their-House-Outright.
Tbf there are a lot of other reasons too.
My whole life, the argument has always been, if you pay a bit more, you'll get wonderful public services.
@DavidMDrucker
NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.
https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap
Without wanting to diminish the death of Ian Coates, those two kids (possibly in love?) were enjoying the happiest days of their lives, walking home at 4am in the middle of summer after a night out, not a care in the world. Then it turned into a horror movie. One of the most heartbreaking cases I’ve known.
Calocane detained in high-security hospital after pleading guilty to manslaughter on grounds of diminished responsibility
The mother of a Nottingham stabbing victim said “true justice has not been served” after the killer was sentenced to indefinite detention in a high-security hospital.
Emma Webber, the mother of 19-year-old Barnaby Webber who was killed alongside fellow student Grace O’Malley-Kumar in the violent attacks that left three people dead last year, also said the assistant chief constable of Nottinghamshire police had “blood on his hands” over the force’s failure to arrest the killer in the months before the killings.
“We as a devastated family have been let down by multiple agency failings and ineffectiveness,” she said, adding that they had been “rushed, hastened and railroaded” into accepting Valdo Calocane’s manslaughter pleas."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/25/nottingham-attacks-valdo-calocane-to-be-detained-at-high-security-hospital
Probably why he has been ranting so much about Presidents needing total immunity lately, that's the one which is a risk.
Though his reaction in the corporate fraud case could be the most exploside to date, given it may have him banned from doing business in New York.
Farage 8%
Johnson 7%
Mordaunt 7%
Braverman 2%
DK 51%
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/rishi-sunak-opinion-poll-tory-labour-reform-keir-starmer-nigel-farage
I think they might manage to just about scrape it.
Though I would good money it does mean I proved more of a Tory voter than many Tory MPs in that election.
Vanilla pushes all these as notifications through to my phone, which is really annoying if I'm doing something important. Like Spelling Bee.
'Another note from Vallance, after a meeting in December 2020, hinted at the power wielded by the right of the Conservative party during the pandemic: “PM told he has been acting early and the public are with him (but his party is not).
“He says his party ‘thinks the whole thing is pathetic and Covid is just nature’s way of dealing with old people – and I am not entirely sure I disagree with them. A lot of moderate people think it is a bit too much.’”'
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/31/boris-johnson-favoured-older-people-accepting-their-fate-covid-inquiry-hears
It implies that the US of Reagan and Clinton had monuments to the equivalents of Hitler and Göring.
Peter Navarro Thwarted by Cowbell and Whistle
Peter Navarro’s attempt to solicit donations was drowned out by protesters
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/peter-navarro-thwarted-by-cowbell-and-whistle
Have been a fan of P Navarro ever since the days when I was living in China, and he wrote a huffy letter-to-editor complaining about my description of a place I'd traveled for reporting there.
Turned out that his knowledge of China was "from the internet."
https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1750612330126135575
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1750608864641163549
New: Rishi Sunak's allies are pressing to increase the threshold for triggering a confidence vote in the prime minister to half of all Tory MPs.
Harriett Baldwin, the chair of the Treasury Select Committee, made the suggestion in the Tory MPs Whatsapp group, in a move being interpreted as "rolling the pitch".
In a message to colleagues seen by The Times, Baldwin was replying to Maria Caulfield, the women's health minister, who had said the "constant melodrama" in the Conservative Party was coming up on the doorstep. Baldwin said: "One practical thing we could do as a parliamentary party is ask the 22 exec to change our rules so that it takes 50% of backbenchers to challenge a sitting PM, rather than 15% of the parliamentary party."
Currently 53 MPs would need to submit letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership bid.
She said this would only apply if the leader was prime minister, not in opposition, and it "could help reassure a public who want to know who they're voting for as PM".
She told The Times: “Call me old-fashioned but I like to adhere to the privacy and discretion of the 1922 Committee as a forum for backbench colleagues to raise discussion points about topical matters.”
Sally-Ann Hart, the MP for Hasting and Rye who is an executive member of the 1922 committee, told Baldwin she would take the idea up.
But one MP on the right, who is disillusioned with Sunak, said: "It just shows the panic in No 10 if they're rolling the pitch like this, I think they're just very nervous.