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The detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,010
edited February 4 in General
imageThe detail from YouGov’s CON 20% poll – politicalbetting.com

The most frightening figure for the Tories is that just 35% of GE2019 CON voters still back the party.

Read the full story here

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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,505
    Wages of Woke appear to be coming at expense of CUP?

    Also note that there is virtually no gender gap for Conservatives, compared with mild one for Labour (leaning female) and strong one for Reform (lurching male).
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    edited January 25
    It’s 49% of Con 19 voters isn’t it? 35% is the Leave Voters who support them now

    Only one thing for it; fall on your sword Con safe seat holders
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,384
    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
  • Options
    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    Don't knows and refused added to that 12% equals 32% which means turnout of circa 68% which compares to 67% who voted in 2019.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,224
    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    92% turnout in the Mid Ulster by-election in 1969!
  • Options
    isam said:

    It’s 49% of Con 19 voters isn’t it? 35% is the Leave Voters who support them now

    Only one thing for it; fall on your sword Con safe seat holders

    It is 49% of 2019 Tory voters expressing a VI and 35% of all 2019 Tory voters.
  • Options
    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Probably found guilty of manslaughter instead.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Not much sign of swingback, yet then? 😂
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
    Adding the DKs & refused’s to the WNV makes it about 70% turnout which is about the norm isn’t
    it? I looked at two more YouGovs and it always seems to be around that mark
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,157

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Probably found guilty of manslaughter instead.
    Really? Seems a bit drastic to find McKinney guilty of that just for reducing the charge.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903

    isam said:

    It’s 49% of Con 19 voters isn’t it? 35% is the Leave Voters who support them now

    Only one thing for it; fall on your sword Con safe seat holders

    It is 49% of 2019 Tory voters expressing a VI and 35% of all 2019 Tory voters.
    Got it 👍🏻
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    Lots of people intend in general to vote but life on the day does not present the opportunity as a high enough priority. (I always get up and vote early as otherwise I might not have the chance later as life keeps presenting stuff to do, incompatible with being in place X before 10 pm.)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,315
    edited January 25
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    Lots of people intend in general to vote but life on the day does not present the opportunity as a high enough priority. (I always get up and vote early as otherwise I might not have the chance later as life keeps presenting stuff to do, incompatible with being in place X before 10 pm.)
    The only time I can recall turnout exceeding the polls was the Indyref which was a very impressive 85% turnout.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969
    Bass, how low can you go?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,835

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
    They should speak up and say like me not voting because its a complete pile of arseholes on every side.....just maybe parties if they hear that message might stop selecting arseholes
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
    Adding the DKs & refused’s to the WNV makes it about 70% turnout which is about the norm isn’t
    it? I looked at two more YouGovs and it always seems to be around that mark
    We've not reached 70% turnout since 1997 of course. Though it has gotten to the high 60s in 2017 and 2019, which is good, but in my gut I'd fear we'll be back at 2001 levels, under 60.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,147
    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969
    Swansea City appear to be having a worse time this evening than even the Tories.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,835
    Pagan2 said:

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
    They should speak up and say like me not voting because its a complete pile of arseholes on every side.....just maybe parties if they hear that message might stop selecting arseholes
    you go out an vote for someone who is and arse just because he is less of an arse than the other guy.....sorry you still voted for an arse
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,157

    Bass, how low can you go?

    In my case, bottom E flat.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    I confess to not really understanding why the SNP voteshare would drop significantly. Granted, it doens't need to drop massively to lose a lot of seats, as 2017 showed, but for all Sturgeon going and independence strategy (though not support) being a bit directionless, I'd surprised Labour appear to be making inroads as well as they have, even if SNP is high enough there's not about to be wiped out.

    The idea the Tories will not only retain seats in Scotland but even possibly gain one, when they might drop below 200 overall, is shocking enough to hear even if it doesn't happen.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    edited January 25

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,130
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    I know little about the law but find it odd that he is found guilty of attempted murder of the three he ran over but wouldn't be found guilty of murder for the ones that he murdered.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    I confess to not really understanding why the SNP voteshare would drop significantly. Granted, it doens't need to drop massively to lose a lot of seats, as 2017 showed, but for all Sturgeon going and independence strategy (though not support) being a bit directionless, I'd surprised Labour appear to be making inroads as well as they have, even if SNP is high enough there's not about to be wiped out.

    The idea the Tories will not only retain seats in Scotland but even possibly gain one, when they might drop below 200 overall, is shocking enough to hear even if it doesn't happen.
    Labour actually managed to gain a seat (Putney) in 2019.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    edited January 25
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    It was a plea. There was no jury. Yes they feel let down. So would I in the heat of the tragic situation in which it is likely that other agencies should have ensured he was off the streets at the time. But that doesn't change our way of doing the rule of law.

    The prosecution had no evidence at all that the defendant had the relevant state of mind to be guilty of murder. Defence and prosecution psychiatrists all said the same thing. It is fundamental to the rule of law that you can't proceed against someone if you know at the start that you lack the evidence which would take the case beyond the close of the prosecution.

    BTW if he had been convicted of murder he would have been sent to prison and within days transferred to a special hospital. An appeal would probably reopen the medical evidence and reduce the conviction to manslaughter.

    It is sad and shameful that the same forensic care was not given to Mrs Goggins and her postmaster friends.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    Legally, it feels like a conviction for murder would have been unsafe. If psychologically he was acting under diminished responsibility then he is guilty of manslaughter. That’s what the law says.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    edited January 25
    After eliminating the don’t knows, it’s actually 49%, but still poor.

    The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,836
    The England numbers are Labour 49%, Conservative 21%, Reform 13% and Liberal Democrats 9%.

    Boris Johnson won England 47-34 in December 2019 so that's a 20.5% swing from Conservative to Labour while the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 11.5%.

    The swing in Clacton (without Farage) was 24.5% offering some credibility to the poll numbers.

    However, I'm a long way from convinced....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    Some Scots Tory will probably achieve fame as the lone Tory gain of the night in otherwise a near wipeout.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    edited January 25

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    I confess to not really understanding why the SNP voteshare would drop significantly. Granted, it doens't need to drop massively to lose a lot of seats, as 2017 showed, but for all Sturgeon going and independence strategy (though not support) being a bit directionless, I'd surprised Labour appear to be making inroads as well as they have, even if SNP is high enough there's not about to be wiped out.

    The idea the Tories will not only retain seats in Scotland but even possibly gain one, when they might drop below 200 overall, is shocking enough to hear even if it doesn't happen.
    Labour actually managed to gain a seat (Putney) in 2019.
    That convinced CorrectHorseNinja that the Red Wall was going to stay put, and Corbyn would restrict Boris to NOM.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969
    IanB2 said:

    After eliminating the don’t knows, it’s actually 49%, but still poor.

    The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.

    Yes, 2024 could be a Brexit election, but not in a good way as far as the Tories are concerned.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    SKSFPE…

    From these figs then some really rough reading for the Cons. Even the 50-64 group who *really* should be their target are strongly breaking for Labour. Only 65+ prefer the Blues, and even then not by a vast amount.

    For Labour, looks like SKS has shed the Corbots but attracted a *lot* of others (or at least, been decent enough to attract those who are sufficiently repelled by the Tories) - a lot of LD votes as well, which I’m massively generalising by ascribing to people are returning to a less alarming Labour.

    It is hard to see how an autumn election helps here - not so much on their left front, but on their right. RefUK will just get more momentum, perhaps even properly recruit The Nige. Annihilation beckons.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    I know little about the law but find it odd that he is found guilty of attempted murder of the three he ran over but wouldn't be found guilty of murder for the ones that he murdered.
    The defence of diminished responsibility applies only to murder and not other offences, for historical rather than logical reasons.

    It is still useful. Murder carries a mandatory life sentence. Where a brutally abused wife deliberately kills a wicked husband but not in self defence we need justice but not a life sentence. Manslaughter does the job.

    (BTW Attempted murder remains very hard to prove as, unlike murder, it requires an intent to kill.)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,922
    RIP Ingenuity

    "New images confirm the #MarsHelicopter sustained rotor damage during Flight 72. Our helicopter has flown its final flight.

    Ingenuity defied the odds and captured our hearts. #ThanksIngenuity for showing us what’s possible when we dare mighty things."

    https://twitter.com/NASAJPL/status/1750604002331406713
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,912
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    I confess to not really understanding why the SNP voteshare would drop significantly. Granted, it doens't need to drop massively to lose a lot of seats, as 2017 showed, but for all Sturgeon going and independence strategy (though not support) being a bit directionless, I'd surprised Labour appear to be making inroads as well as they have, even if SNP is high enough there's not about to be wiped out.

    The idea the Tories will not only retain seats in Scotland but even possibly gain one, when they might drop below 200 overall, is shocking enough to hear even if it doesn't happen.
    Anecdotally, there is a lot of quiet shuffling of feet when Humza's name comes up. I get the feeling there is a vague - possibly just tinge - of that "well, you've had a good run, but now it's someone else's turn...." coming into play.

    Not nearly as much as with the Tories. But just the dial shifting a bit.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664
    Ghedebrav said:

    SKSFPE…

    From these figs then some really rough reading for the Cons. Even the 50-64 group who *really* should be their target are strongly breaking for Labour. Only 65+ prefer the Blues, and even then not by a vast amount.

    For Labour, looks like SKS has shed the Corbots but attracted a *lot* of others (or at least, been decent enough to attract those who are sufficiently repelled by the Tories) - a lot of LD votes as well, which I’m massively generalising by ascribing to people are returning to a less alarming Labour.

    It is hard to see how an autumn election helps here - not so much on their left front, but on their right. RefUK will just get more momentum, perhaps even properly recruit The Nige. Annihilation beckons.

    They don't need to recruit him, he owns over half the party....
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    edited January 25
    IanB2 said:

    After eliminating the don’t knows, it’s actually 49%, but still poor.

    The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.

    The Tories seem to think that the way back into those voters’ good books is to cut their taxes and tell them they’re taking more of their pay home.

    They’re arguing against the prevailing wind though.

    As a default many working people do want lower taxes, and in many situations I think people understand and appreciate the argument that lower taxes can be a good thing.

    BUT:

    We live in a society where it feels like treasured institutions and services that we all took for granted are in a state of decay. Plenty of people I know would gladly pay a little more in tax if they felt they were going to get a better NHS, or railway, or school for their children, or council support. This is the backdrop to this election (and indeed I would suggest much of the last 5-6 years).

    The Tories won’t win over working voters by making the low taxes = growth argument. Truss (perhaps rightly) made it, but cocked up the implementation, and now it is discredited. In time, those arguments may rise again, but at the moment, the mood isnt with them.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Also terrible numbers for the SNP who were often touching 5% the last time. It appears that their support might roughly halve in a lot of the current polling. Whilst I suspect that they will get some swingback from Independence supporters currently scunnered of them in Scotland it is going to be a competition between them and the Tories about whose vote has fallen more in some seats and the frankly bizarre possibility of a falling Conservative support picking up a seat or two.

    FPTP. You gotta love it.

    Some Scots Tory will probably achieve fame as the lone Tory gain of the night in otherwise a near wipeout.
    And even in a Tory wipeout the solid blue wall along the Scottish side of the border looks secure. (The English side could go from all blue to all red)
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    I know little about the law but find it odd that he is found guilty of attempted murder of the three he ran over but wouldn't be found guilty of murder for the ones that he murdered.
    The defence of diminished responsibility applies only to murder and not other offences, for historical rather than logical reasons.

    It is still useful. Murder carries a mandatory life sentence. Where a brutally abused wife deliberately kills a wicked husband but not in self defence we need justice but not a life sentence. Manslaughter does the job.

    (BTW Attempted murder remains very hard to prove as, unlike murder, it requires an intent to kill.)
    And of course historically the distinction was made even more apparent because the mandatory sentence for murder was a trip to the hangman.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,157
    I see Trump is still trying his hardest to get himself jailed.

    Honestly, the thought of what he might say or do when the Washington and Georgia cases come up for trial should be enough to send world popcorn prices to a level that would bankrupt an oligarch.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,948
    Wrong.
    The most frightening statistic is 14% amongst the age 50-64.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,735

    isam said:

    Only 12% say they would not vote… that would indicate a turnout of 88% wouldn’t it? What am I missing?

    For many people, it's mega awkward to say "I won't vote" out loud. It's a bit taboo, because we know that we're fortunate to have that right.

    Easier to say "don't know/haven't decided yet", and just not leave the sofa on the day.
    I refuse to vote because of the voter ID regs. Last time I voted Tory but this time Sir Jeremy Wright KC can fuck right off.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000

    IanB2 said:

    After eliminating the don’t knows, it’s actually 49%, but still poor.

    The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.

    The Tories seem to think that the way back into those voters’ good books is to cut their taxes and tell them they’re taking more of their pay home.

    They’re arguing against the prevailing wind though.

    As a default many working people do want lower taxes, and in many situations I think people understand and appreciate the argument that lower taxes can be a good thing.

    BUT:

    We live in a society where it feels like treasured institutions and services that we all took for granted are in a state of decay. Plenty of people I know would gladly pay a little more in tax if they felt they were going to get a better NHS, or railway, or school for their children, or council support. This is the backdrop to this election (and indeed I would suggest much of the last 5-6 years).

    The Tories won’t win over working voters by making the low taxes = growth argument. Truss (perhaps rightly) made it, but cocked up the implementation, and now it is discredited. In time, those arguments may rise again, but at the moment, the mood isnt with them.

    I think this is right. And I’d add that for many of these working voters things like the NI change are pissing in the wind vs the increases to mortgage payments (and, as an effect of that, the further barrier to getting on the housing ladder).

    The Tories have gone from being the Party Of The Homeowner to the Party Of The Own-Their-House-Outright.

    Tbf there are a lot of other reasons too.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000

    Ghedebrav said:

    SKSFPE…

    From these figs then some really rough reading for the Cons. Even the 50-64 group who *really* should be their target are strongly breaking for Labour. Only 65+ prefer the Blues, and even then not by a vast amount.

    For Labour, looks like SKS has shed the Corbots but attracted a *lot* of others (or at least, been decent enough to attract those who are sufficiently repelled by the Tories) - a lot of LD votes as well, which I’m massively generalising by ascribing to people are returning to a less alarming Labour.

    It is hard to see how an autumn election helps here - not so much on their left front, but on their right. RefUK will just get more momentum, perhaps even properly recruit The Nige. Annihilation beckons.

    They don't need to recruit him, he owns over half the party....
    Ha fair, this is true. I guess he’s judging his moment.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    edited January 25

    IanB2 said:

    After eliminating the don’t knows, it’s actually 49%, but still poor.

    The actually frightening stats from that poll for the Tories are the almost complete collapse in their support from people of working age, and from people who voted Remain in 2016. The damage that Brexit and the Tories’ pandering to the pensioner vote have done to their popularity is there, in plain sight.

    The Tories seem to think that the way back into those voters’ good books is to cut their taxes and tell them they’re taking more of their pay home.

    They’re arguing against the prevailing wind though.

    As a default many working people do want lower taxes, and in many situations I think people understand and appreciate the argument that lower taxes can be a good thing.

    BUT:

    We live in a society where it feels like treasured institutions and services that we all took for granted are in a state of decay. Plenty of people I know would gladly pay a little more in tax if they felt they were going to get a better NHS, or railway, or school for their children, or council support. This is the backdrop to this election (and indeed I would suggest much of the last 5-6 years).

    The Tories won’t win over working voters by making the low taxes = growth argument. Truss (perhaps rightly) made it, but cocked up the implementation, and now it is discredited. In time, those arguments may rise again, but at the moment, the mood isnt with them.

    The danger is of course, that we get Scandinavian taxes, and US public services, while endlessly being told, pay a bit more tax and everything will come good.

    My whole life, the argument has always been, if you pay a bit more, you'll get wonderful public services.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,903
    edited January 25
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    The defence lawyer is asking for it not to be life. I suppose he would do

    Without wanting to diminish the death of Ian Coates, those two kids (possibly in love?) were enjoying the happiest days of their lives, walking home at 4am in the middle of summer after a night out, not a care in the world. Then it turned into a horror movie. One of the most heartbreaking cases I’ve known.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    They can declare what they want but unless and until he gets a majority of delegates he is not confirmed nominee by the convention
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    edited January 25
    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    Don't really understand the need - it's obvious Trump is easily winning, and most in the GOP have already weighed in behind him and deliver him the desperate praise that he demands on pain of retribution, why does the RNC need to do anything further to prove their loyalty to him? I guarantee Haley will be backing him once she eventually drops out as well.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    "‘Justice not served,’ says Nottingham victim’s mother as Valdo Calocane sentenced

    Calocane detained in high-security hospital after pleading guilty to manslaughter on grounds of diminished responsibility

    The mother of a Nottingham stabbing victim said “true justice has not been served” after the killer was sentenced to indefinite detention in a high-security hospital.

    Emma Webber, the mother of 19-year-old Barnaby Webber who was killed alongside fellow student Grace O’Malley-Kumar in the violent attacks that left three people dead last year, also said the assistant chief constable of Nottinghamshire police had “blood on his hands” over the force’s failure to arrest the killer in the months before the killings.

    “We as a devastated family have been let down by multiple agency failings and ineffectiveness,” she said, adding that they had been “rushed, hastened and railroaded” into accepting Valdo Calocane’s manslaughter pleas."

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/25/nottingham-attacks-valdo-calocane-to-be-detained-at-high-security-hospital
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042
    Sean_F said:

    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.

    True, once the bottom really falls out, they'll be lucky to hit anything like 20%.

    image
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Greetings from Aruba. Interesting fact of the day - when they leave primary school children here are supposed to speak 4 languages ( Dutch, Spanish, English, and the local patois). Only one local by-election today - a Con defence in Stirling.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    edited January 25
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    I'm not sure. This is not the first case where opportunities were missed. Colocane was already in the system but fell through the cracks, like Zara Aleena's killer; as did the 2-year-old Bronson Battersby who starved to death last week, as when terrorists like Salman Abedi who bombed the Ariana Grande concert were known to Special Branch or MI5. Our public services are failing and people are dying.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    ydoethur said:

    I see Trump is still trying his hardest to get himself jailed.

    Honestly, the thought of what he might say or do when the Washington and Georgia cases come up for trial should be enough to send world popcorn prices to a level that would bankrupt an oligarch.

    Washington appears to be the most dangerous for him, because it's the only one that seems like it might actually get to trial and finish before the election, though he is doing his best to push it back with the immunity appeals and so on. The Georgia case is not due to start until August and is apparently going to be a long one, and it seems like many commentators are confident the Florida case will be pushed back by the judge as no way they keep to schedule based on current progress, despite being the simplest case.

    Probably why he has been ranting so much about Presidents needing total immunity lately, that's the one which is a risk.

    Though his reaction in the corporate fraud case could be the most exploside to date, given it may have him banned from doing business in New York.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    slade said:

    Greetings from Aruba. Interesting fact of the day - when they leave primary school children here are supposed to speak 4 languages ( Dutch, Spanish, English, and the local patois). Only one local by-election today - a Con defence in Stirling.

    Never been to Aruba, but have visited St Martin and Saba in 2007.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    slade said:

    Greetings from Aruba. Interesting fact of the day - when they leave primary school children here are supposed to speak 4 languages ( Dutch, Spanish, English, and the local patois). Only one local by-election today - a Con defence in Stirling.

    There's a Stirling in Aruba too? Good to see you have immersed in the local politics.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    Next Conservative leader poll from Peoples' Polling

    Farage 8%
    Johnson 7%
    Mordaunt 7%
    Braverman 2%
    DK 51%
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/rishi-sunak-opinion-poll-tory-labour-reform-keir-starmer-nigel-farage
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.

    That's quite pessimistic for the Tories to suggest they won't be coming close to that.

    I think they might manage to just about scrape it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963

    Sean_F said:

    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.

    True, once the bottom really falls out, they'll be lucky to hit anything like 20%.

    image
    That was under PR and before Brexit had been delivered
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690

    Sean_F said:

    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.

    True, once the bottom really falls out, they'll be lucky to hit anything like 20%.

    image
    And part of that 9.1% was me, so you cannot even assume that's entirely core vote they can rely on.

    Though I would good money it does mean I proved more of a Tory voter than many Tory MPs in that election.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    The defence lawyer is asking for it not to be life. I suppose he would do

    Without wanting to diminish the death of Ian Coates, those two kids (possibly in love?) were enjoying the happiest days of their lives, walking home at 4am in the middle of summer after a night out, not a care in the world. Then it turned into a horror movie. One of the most heartbreaking cases I’ve known.
    Like the old sweat in an American cop movie, Ian Coates was just a couple of months away from retirement, and like them, did not survive to the final reel.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    It was a plea. There was no jury. Yes they feel let down. So would I in the heat of the tragic situation in which it is likely that other agencies should have ensured he was off the streets at the time. But that doesn't change our way of doing the rule of law.

    The prosecution had no evidence at all that the defendant had the relevant state of mind to be guilty of murder. Defence and prosecution psychiatrists all said the same thing. It is fundamental to the rule of law that you can't proceed against someone if you know at the start that you lack the evidence which would take the case beyond the close of the prosecution.

    BTW if he had been convicted of murder he would have been sent to prison and within days transferred to a special hospital. An appeal would probably reopen the medical evidence and reduce the conviction to manslaughter.

    It is sad and shameful that the same forensic care was not given to Mrs Goggins and her postmaster friends.
    A case that differentiates between justice and revenge. Valdo Calocane will probably spend the rest of his life in a secure mental hospital, which would be the case whether he was convicted of manslaughter or murder.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    Imagine the scenes if Roberts and another Conservative Justice went 'Aha, we're saying you are indeed disqualified', only for one of the Liberal Justices side with the other side.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Terrible numbers, but I doubt if the Conservatives will be coming close to 20% at the election, nor Reform close to 13%.

    True, once the bottom really falls out, they'll be lucky to hit anything like 20%.

    image
    That was under PR and before Brexit had been delivered
    But only the other day you were comparing FPTP and PR votes as if they were commensurable (Tories in UK vs AfD in Germany). I'm confused.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    American Patriots (n) - People who wish America's enemies had won the Civil War and World War Two.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    American Patriots (n) - People who wish America's enemies had won the Civil War and World War Two.
    And that they win the WW3 preshow.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,930

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    Would Georgia go with him, given his enemy number one - Brad Raffensperger - won rather handily there last time around.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    slade said:

    Greetings from Aruba. Interesting fact of the day - when they leave primary school children here are supposed to speak 4 languages ( Dutch, Spanish, English, and the local patois). Only one local by-election today - a Con defence in Stirling.

    Lucky you! It’s one of the best Caribbean islands.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609

    Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?

    Mm. Just thinking that if Mr Johnson ever tries to take over the CPUK again his opponents will have that great line about covid. And yet the right wing don't seem to have grasped your point.

    'Another note from Vallance, after a meeting in December 2020, hinted at the power wielded by the right of the Conservative party during the pandemic: “PM told he has been acting early and the public are with him (but his party is not).

    “He says his party ‘thinks the whole thing is pathetic and Covid is just nature’s way of dealing with old people – and I am not entirely sure I disagree with them. A lot of moderate people think it is a bit too much.’”'

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/31/boris-johnson-favoured-older-people-accepting-their-fate-covid-inquiry-hears
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,690
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    Would Georgia go with him, given his enemy number one - Brad Raffensperger - won rather handily there last time around.
    The Governor doesn't seem to be a fan either, though not to the point of actually opposing obviously (he's not stupid).
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Next Conservative leader poll from Peoples' Polling

    Farage 8%
    Johnson 7%
    Mordaunt 7%
    Braverman 2%
    DK 51%
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/rishi-sunak-opinion-poll-tory-labour-reform-keir-starmer-nigel-farage

    I'm very surprised that Daniel Kawczynski has that kind of support.
    People need someone to look up to.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    I'm not sure. This is not the first case where opportunities were missed. Colocane was already in the system but fell through the cracks, like Zara Aleena's killer; as did the 2-year-old Bronson Battersby who starved to death last week, as when terrorists like Salman Abedi who bombed the Ariana Grande concert were known to Special Branch or MI5. Our public services are failing and people are dying.
    That’s what happens when too many people prioritise tax cuts over funding our services, in this case social services and security services, sufficiently.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    American Patriots (n) - People who wish America's enemies had won the Civil War and World War Two.
    The fashion for conflating the South with the Nazis is one of the reasons why the US is becoming so volatile and ceasing to function as a united polity.

    It implies that the US of Reagan and Clinton had monuments to the equivalents of Hitler and Göring.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    I'm not sure. This is not the first case where opportunities were missed. Colocane was already in the system but fell through the cracks, like Zara Aleena's killer; as did the 2-year-old Bronson Battersby who starved to death last week, as when terrorists like Salman Abedi who bombed the Ariana Grande concert were known to Special Branch or MI5. Our public services are failing and people are dying.
    That’s what happens when too many people prioritise tax cuts over funding our services, in this case social services and security services, sufficiently.
    Its cute that you think tax cuts have been prioritised when this sorry excuse for a Government has put taxes up to the highest in decades.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,413
    ydoethur said:

    Bass, how low can you go?

    In my case, bottom E flat.
    D for me. And, inconsistently, bottom C.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,413
    Should try this with Trump.

    Peter Navarro Thwarted by Cowbell and Whistle
    Peter Navarro’s attempt to solicit donations was drowned out by protesters
    https://www.meidastouch.com/news/peter-navarro-thwarted-by-cowbell-and-whistle
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    edited January 25

    Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?

    Interesting that my 84 year old wife and I (80 in February) have had 7 covid vaccines and yet we have had covid 3 times, twice really nasty
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Well now...

    @DavidMDrucker
    NEWS: Republican National Committee reviewing a draft resolution that if approved would declare TRUMP the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee even as @NikkiHaley wages a vigorous campaign against the frontrunner.

    https://t.co/rl5aiQ90ap

    It is going to be absolutely hilarious if SCOTUS disqualify him.
    He can become President of the True American States: Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Virginia, Georgia, et al.
    American Patriots (n) - People who wish America's enemies had won the Civil War and World War Two.
    The fashion for conflating the South with the Nazis is one of the reasons why the US is becoming so volatile and ceasing to function as a united polity.

    It implies that the US of Reagan and Clinton had monuments to the equivalents of Hitler and Göring.
    Not the South, the Confederate traitors.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    Carnyx said:

    Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?

    Mm. Just thinking that if Mr Johnson ever tries to take over the CPUK again his opponents will have that great line about covid. And yet the right wing don't seem to have grasped your point.

    'Another note from Vallance, after a meeting in December 2020, hinted at the power wielded by the right of the Conservative party during the pandemic: “PM told he has been acting early and the public are with him (but his party is not).

    “He says his party ‘thinks the whole thing is pathetic and Covid is just nature’s way of dealing with old people – and I am not entirely sure I disagree with them. A lot of moderate people think it is a bit too much.’”'

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/31/boris-johnson-favoured-older-people-accepting-their-fate-covid-inquiry-hears
    Johnson’s definition of “moderate” is different to most peoples, what maybe explains current Tory thinking.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,413
    Nigelb said:

    Should try this with Trump.

    Peter Navarro Thwarted by Cowbell and Whistle
    Peter Navarro’s attempt to solicit donations was drowned out by protesters
    https://www.meidastouch.com/news/peter-navarro-thwarted-by-cowbell-and-whistle

    James Fallows doesn't like him much, either.

    Have been a fan of P Navarro ever since the days when I was living in China, and he wrote a huffy letter-to-editor complaining about my description of a place I'd traveled for reporting there.

    Turned out that his knowledge of China was "from the internet."

    https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1750612330126135575


  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,413
    Sen. Tillis knocks Republicans who want to kill immigration deal to help Trump politically, saying "we have to have people in our party" who won't bow to that. "I didn't come here to have the president as a boss, or a candidate as a boss. I came here to pass good, solid policy."
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1750608864641163549
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    The CPS reached the conclusion that “There was no longer a realistic prospect of conviction for murder” in the case of Valdo Colocane
    Does this mean they think the jury would find him Not Guilty if he had been tried for murder? What would have happened to him in that scenario?

    "He believed his mind was being controlled by external influences and that his family was in danger if he didn't obey the voices in his head."

    Chief crown prosecutor for the east midlands Janine McKinney speaking about killer Valdo Calocane.


    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750499918463037823?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    If there had been a trial the jury would have convicted him of manslaughter on the ground of diminished responsibility. Which he pleaded to. The psychiatric evidence was unanimous that his responsibility was at least diminished, so there would have been no lawful basis for a murder conviction.

    He would also have been convicted of attempted murder. The special case of diminished responsibility only applies to murder for historical rather than logical reasons.

    The convictions recognise real and actual culpability, but diminished. The same can apply when, for example, a wife kills an abusive and violent husband when it is not in self defence.
    Given that, whether it was murder or manslaughter, he is very unlikely to ever be freed, wouldn’t it be better to convict him of murder?

    I say this because the bereaved families are furious at it being manslaughter, they feel let down, and a murder verdict doesn’t seem like it would make any practical difference to the guilty man anyway
    The families have been let down, terribly, but not by the manslaughter charge, which as other have noted is likely the right one given the killer's psychotic state. Mental health services and the police have questions to answer about their engagement with the man in the months leading up to the crime, but I expect that at least some of the answer is that they were being asked to do more than their resources allowed.
    They are very unhappy with the CPS that he wasn’t tried for murder

    "True justice has not been served today".

    Mother of victim Barnaby Webber, Emma Webber, says the families were "horrified" that Calocane's manslaughter plea was accepted.

    Live updates: trib.al/kdcG8Ne

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube



    https://x.com/skynews/status/1750495214555340868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
    Families will always feel like that. If he had been tried for murder, they'd have been disappointed when he was found not guilty. If by some chance he had been found guilty of murder, he'd have got life and spent a week or so in prison before being moved to Broadmoor.

    Grace's father said something along the lines of placing their faith in the courts and judiciary, so he was possibly more accepting of the way things turned out, or was putting on a stiff upper lip.

    So long as he's going away for good, that is what matters.
    The defence lawyer is asking for it not to be life. I suppose he would do

    Without wanting to diminish the death of Ian Coates, those two kids (possibly in love?) were enjoying the happiest days of their lives, walking home at 4am in the middle of summer after a night out, not a care in the world. Then it turned into a horror movie. One of the most heartbreaking cases I’ve known.
    Not in love, just good friends. I know the mother of the young lady's boyfriend at the time. She missed a planned meeting on the day the story broke as she was down there to be with him.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    @Geri_E_L_Scott
    New: Rishi Sunak's allies are pressing to increase the threshold for triggering a confidence vote in the prime minister to half of all Tory MPs.

    Harriett Baldwin, the chair of the Treasury Select Committee, made the suggestion in the Tory MPs Whatsapp group, in a move being interpreted as "rolling the pitch".

    In a message to colleagues seen by The Times, Baldwin was replying to Maria Caulfield, the women's health minister, who had said the "constant melodrama" in the Conservative Party was coming up on the doorstep. Baldwin said: "One practical thing we could do as a parliamentary party is ask the 22 exec to change our rules so that it takes 50% of backbenchers to challenge a sitting PM, rather than 15% of the parliamentary party."

    Currently 53 MPs would need to submit letters of no confidence to trigger a leadership bid.

    She said this would only apply if the leader was prime minister, not in opposition, and it "could help reassure a public who want to know who they're voting for as PM".

    She told The Times: “Call me old-fashioned but I like to adhere to the privacy and discretion of the 1922 Committee as a forum for backbench colleagues to raise discussion points about topical matters.”

    Sally-Ann Hart, the MP for Hasting and Rye who is an executive member of the 1922 committee, told Baldwin she would take the idea up.

    But one MP on the right, who is disillusioned with Sunak, said: "It just shows the panic in No 10 if they're rolling the pitch like this, I think they're just very nervous.
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