Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
My view too. Economy plus incumbency plus uncommitted minds focusing properly on Trump. He loses again and it's not that close.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
My view too. Economy plus incumbency plus uncommitted minds focusing properly on Trump. He loses again and it's not that close.
A plausible position. And yet the betting markets disagree
Someone is getting it very wrong
IF you are right, there is clearly money to be made betting against The Donald
For the hundreds of victims of the Post Office Horizon IT scandal, a recently-unearthed memo from 1998 must be almost too painful to read.
The then Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair, was warned that Horizon was “flawed” and that an “unsatisfactory” deal with suppliers Fujitsu would leave the government “dependent on a hugely expensive, inflexible, inappropriate and possibly unreliable system”. Fatefully, Blair went ahead with Horizon anyway, and we all know what came next.
The man who wrote that memo, Sir Geoff Mulgan, is now helping Sir Keir Starmer to prepare for government, and the Labour leader would do well to listen to him. Mulgan worries that political leaders still have too little grip on science and technology, and that mistakes like Horizon are still happening around the world. “I did recommend cancelling it,” he says of Horizon, “and then tried to look at some of the lessons to be learnt...
1998. 26 years ago - that’s how long this has been going on for, since the sitting PM was told it was a mess.
Yes, although the quoted extract is unfair in as much as the then government did pull out of the project itself, leaving the PO the unenviable choice of cutting some very significant losses or ploughing on with Fujitsu
One other point is that there was no tried and trusted, off-the-shelf alternative available. And even later on, if a large company bought SAP or a similar business automation system, it was a standing joke that it would need an army of contractors working for years to customise it for that company. So the choice for the Post Office would have been either to write off Horizon and start again from scratch, or to plough on with something that was at least 80 per cent ready.
ETA so the original decision to use Horizon was rational and defensible. The scandal came later.
True (RM later bought SAP payroll, but that's another story....). But the fact that the system had originally been designed around the benefits card, which was dropped midway, does appear to have contributed to the program being unfit for purpose.
According to the documentation I’ve seen, the crispness originated in the way that transactions were handled. Nothing to do with the benefit card aspect. This was a deep, fundamental flaw in how the system was built.
If the report by the actual IT expert (posted the other day) was correct, re-writing that module and adding in an audit layer for database writes would have fixed the system. Which wouldn’t have cost that much money or time.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
So hands up if you thought 246 was a good score on this pitch. How’s about if you thought it was an okay score?
India now 300/5. This test is lost.
Yup, sadly for us they’re going to get at least 400, England should just call it 1-0 and take the weekend off.
No faith in the Stokes era?
I have little faith in anyone being able to win a series in India at the moment. They’re at the top of their game, and have invested their massive cricketing wealth into producing possibly the best team since the 1980s WIndies.
And have no shame in producing pitches to suit their strengths (when sometimes other nations fail to do the same).
Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.
Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?
Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality. Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
Meat, vegetarian, or vegan - most sausages are ultra-processed foods. Just look at the list of ingredients in, for example:
Waitrose No.1 Free Range Lincolnshire Pork Sausages Pork (91%), water, sage, rice flour, maize flour, sea salt, black pepper, white pepper, stabiliser (triphosphates), preservative (sodium metabisulphite), maize starch, salt, dextrose monohydrate. Filled into calcium alginate casings.
Linda Mccartney Vegetarian Sausages Rehydrated Textured Soya Protein (52%), Water, Rapeseed Oil, Soya Protein Concentrate, Seasoning (Sulphites) (Dextrose, Flavourings, Salt, Onion Powder, Yeast Extract, Colour: Red Iron Oxide), Fortified Wheat Flour (Wheat Flour, Calcium Carbonate, Iron, Niacin, Thiamin), Bamboo Fibre, Stabiliser: Methyl Cellulose, Tomato Purée, Salt, Raising Agent: Ammonium Carbonates
This is a really important point. Vegan (and vegetarian) food is often held to be a healthier alternative to meat containing products and yet the stuff from the supermarkets is not wholesome food. Far better to source the veg, herbs and spices and make it yourself.
Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.
Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?
Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
Vegan (or as the kool kids say, plant-based) sausage rolls were outselling the real thing in my global megacorp's staff canteens.
Most sausages are crap, but vegetarian ones are at least likely to be of more consistent quality. Unless I can rely on the quality, I usually opt for the vegetarian choice.
A given brand is likely to be consistent, I grant you. On a menu, though, an ordinary sausage is at least going to contain meat, whereas a vegetarian one could contain practically anything else.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
My view too. Economy plus incumbency plus uncommitted minds focusing properly on Trump. He loses again and it's not that close.
Further thoughts. I tend to agree with you and @DavidL that Biden should win, despite his grievous flaws, with this positive economic news for the USA. It is a stark comparison with stagnant Europe. In the end the lilkely decider of any election involving an incumbent is "do you feel richer since the last election". For enough Americans, albeit marginally, it should be Yes
Two possible caveats
1. A black-ish swan. Some foreign policy disaster where Biden appears a dangerous idiot. Iran acquiring nukes would be one of those. A Putin attack on NATO?
2. Illegal immigration. This isn't a black swan, this is a white swan sailing directly towards the White House. This is what could most easily bring down Biden, despite rising wages
Given that she has sadly passed, the phrase "Linda McCartney sausages" now carries the subtle and unfortunate implication that they are actually made out of Linda McCartney
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
Good on them, well done Germany. The more the merrier as far as kit is concerned, anything the Ukranians can get their hand on from Western countries, is likely to be a lot better than whatever they have now.
I don't think it's out of the goodness of their heart. If Trump goes for appeasement (as seems to be the case), there is a real chance now of Russian influence knocking on their doors.
No doubt - but that was also the case two years ago. So good for them for waking up. I'm not so sure about us - good intentions but somewhat short on delivery.
So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)
Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
I don't think Biden will benefit because I think people fundamentally lost their confidence in him over the fall of Kabul. This puts him in the position where he is blamed (often unfairly) for everything that goes wrong, and if anything goes right, the assumption is that it does so despite him, and he gains no credit.
This is the position Major was in following the collapse of his economic policy when Sterling crashed out of the ERM, which meant that the Tories went down to a crushing defeat in 1997, despite the fact that the economy was recovering well from the earlier recession by that point.
Given that she has sadly passed, the phrase "Linda McCartney sausages" now carries the subtle and unfortunate implication that they are actually made out of Linda McCartney
Given the sales volume, that would be homeopathic amounts.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
No.
+1 - it’s remarkable how many people (in the IS) don’t seem to be noticing how much better off they are - because some costs have increased significantly.
From what I hear eating out has got a lot more expensive and if you look back and think in 2018 we eat out every weekend and now we don’t, people feel worse off.
So the economy isn’t going to be enough for Biden
Most people have basically made up their mind long ago so it is a turnout election rather than a persuasion one.
Dems have abortion, Trumps have immigration, which are both powerful drivers. If the economy goes particularly well or badly it is probably decisive, if it is a moderately good year I suspect it will be very close again and contested in the courts.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
That's true, and hence why I wrote that I mostly agreed with you.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.
Less of that in the South West by all accounts.
So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.
Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
In the two seats in which I have an interest, Godalming and Ash (Surrey) is seeing a massive LibDem effort (including lots of in-person deliveries) and a substantial Tory effort too. Didcot and Wantage (Oxon) is seeing less activity and nearly all of it by Royal Mail deliveries with the pizza ads. Labour had a street stand last week with decent takeup but it's the only such event by anyone that I'm aware of in recent months.
The difference is that Godalming and Ash is dominated by the town and has high-profile Tory (Jeremy Hunt) and LibDem (Paul Follows) candidates, whereas D+W is spread out across numerous small towns and villages, with many residents commuters from London or Oxford and not that interested in local politics. Seats with a lot of visible local campaigning are more liable to have levels of tactical voting; others will I suppose tend to go with national swings.
Given that she has sadly passed, the phrase "Linda McCartney sausages" now carries the subtle and unfortunate implication that they are actually made out of Linda McCartney
Given the sales volume, that would be homeopathic amounts.
And thus the effect of the McCartney would be ever stronger. Do they need to shake the sausages to ensure the effect?
(Set my first years an essay on why homeopathy should not be paid for by the NHS...)
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)
Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west
Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?
Absolutely spot on. We should have allowed the elderly to shield whilst young people got on with life. All that’s happened is the entitled older generation have got everything handed to them and instead of being reflective they just shout at everyone and call them thick, woke and stupid. Enough.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
The West doesn't really exist as a coherent, consistent bloc whilst Trump is close to power on America First.
Biden can promise whatever, but there is a 50% chance those promises are irrelevant in a years time.
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
They've never had F-35 and never will because Israel won't allow it.
Now that the Germans have lifted the Eurofighter to KSA ban the UK government can't do anything but lift MBS's thawb and pucker up. Otherwise combat aircraft production in the UK ends in 2026/7.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
My view too. Economy plus incumbency plus uncommitted minds focusing properly on Trump. He loses again and it's not that close.
When I was in the US last month, and I hate to agree with Leon, immigration was vexing Democrat Mayors and Governors. The finger was being pointed at Biden's administration. It was troubling CNN and had been weaponised by the usual channels.
Some late in the day intervention by the Biden administration might not be enough. When the Orange One promises incoherent base solutions, he will be listened to, and his message decoded into something the voter likes.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
I may be wishcasting (sorry) but surely this improvement in the economy will see Biden home and dry in November no matter who his opponent is?
No.
+1 - it’s remarkable how many people (in the IS) don’t seem to be noticing how much better off they are - because some costs have increased significantly.
From what I hear eating out has got a lot more expensive and if you look back and think in 2018 we eat out every weekend and now we don’t, people feel worse off.
So the economy isn’t going to be enough for Biden
Most people have basically made up their mind long ago so it is a turnout election rather than a persuasion one.
Dems have abortion, Trumps have immigration, which are both powerful drivers. If the economy goes particularly well or badly it is probably decisive, if it is a moderately good year I suspect it will be very close again and contested in the courts.
I don't know that it's already set in stone like that. It's very clearly now the intention of Trump to prevent his party in Congress coming to any agreement with the Democrats on legislation to address the border issue. But it's not impossible that Biden manages to broker an agreement despite that.
Indeed, the Post Office was running something akin to an extortion racket.
There must be a number of other Corporate agencies who have been doing something similar, and I expect their senior executives may be following the Horizon Inquiry and thinking 'there but for the grace of God...'
He's on dangerous ground there. Saying he 'saw' antisocial behaviour as DPP means that at least one or two case files must have crossed his dusty and cobweb-strewn desk...
At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.
Less of that in the South West by all accounts.
So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.
Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
In the two seats in which I have an interest, Godalming and Ash (Surrey) is seeing a massive LibDem effort (including lots of in-person deliveries) and a substantial Tory effort too. Didcot and Wantage (Oxon) is seeing less activity and nearly all of it by Royal Mail deliveries with the pizza ads. Labour had a street stand last week with decent takeup but it's the only such event by anyone that I'm aware of in recent months.
The difference is that Godalming and Ash is dominated by the town and has high-profile Tory (Jeremy Hunt) and LibDem (Paul Follows) candidates, whereas D+W is spread out across numerous small towns and villages, with many residents commuters from London or Oxford and not that interested in local politics. Seats with a lot of visible local campaigning are more liable to have levels of tactical voting; others will I suppose tend to go with national swings.
No discernible activity from anyone in this Cumberland area in a new boundary seat which is currently predicted to be a narrow Labour win and postdicted to have been a Tory seat in 2019. Labour currently have no seats in Cumbria, and I expect Tories to have none in 2024 unless they squeak home in Farron's new seat.
Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.
Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?
Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
I do want to eat meat. So eating something that gives me a similar experience without the guilt is a winner.
We had some plant-based mince earlier this week, and plant-based sausages today. Yum!
So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)
Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west
It's a disgusting decision. The Chagossians have been denied justice for too long. Let them return to their homeland. There's nothing "wokey" about the idea that people shouldn't be forcibly removed from their homes and have their lives destroyed by high handed imperial powers. Their return doesn't prevent the US continuing to operate the base on Diego Garcia. The fight will continue and in the end justice will prevail, whatever this unelected privileged POS says.
Let's see how much "justice" there is in the world when Russia, China and Iran all call the shots - as real imperial powers.
The rules have changed. We're no longer in a happy 1990s situation where the liberal democratic rules-based international order rules supreme, and we can freely indulge in lop-sided self-hatred.
We need to retain strategic bases and they need to be British. I'm sure the few hundred Chagossians who were displaced many decades ago - just as those displaced in London when Heathrow was built- can live with it.
Good on them, well done Germany. The more the merrier as far as kit is concerned, anything the Ukranians can get their hand on from Western countries, is likely to be a lot better than whatever they have now.
I don't think it's out of the goodness of their heart. If Trump goes for appeasement (as seems to be the case), there is a real chance now of Russian influence knocking on their doors.
No doubt - but that was also the case two years ago. So good for them for waking up. I'm not so sure about us - good intentions but somewhat short on delivery.
It won't be the UK picking up the bill.
According to this: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ which seems to be total aid from Jan 22 to Oct 23 even Hungary has given 50% more aid (as % of GDP) to Ukraine than the UK has. Admittedly almost all of Hungary's aid is 'Share of EU aid'. If you count refugee costs then the UK is even further behind (I think).
Again, the Tories haven't been in office for the last four decades.
Stop your lies.
Well they have - just not for the whole of the period.
If you look at spending as a percentage of GDP, there was a steady decline from the early 80s to ... around 1997. It been (with minor fluctuations) more or less steady since then.
Defence procurement appears to have got progressively worse, irrespective of the party in power.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
The West doesn't really exist as a coherent, consistent bloc whilst Trump is close to power on America First.
Biden can promise whatever, but there is a 50% chance those promises are irrelevant in a years time.
Isn't son-in-law Kushner a Saudi made man? As long as money heads Trumpwards, SA are probably the one country that Trump would hold to existing deals.
At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.
Less of that in the South West by all accounts.
So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.
Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
Am in a blue-yellow marginal (Cheadle) but I'm only really seeing anything from the LDs. TBF I'm in a solidly LD part of the constituency and I suspect Blue Team door knockers would get short shrift round here.
Labour engaged in at least seven foreign wars (or military interventions) so increased defence spending. Then it was back to four decades of Tory defence cuts.
The politics is interesting though because you and most others would automatically believe Conservatives are strong on defence and Labour weak. It is self-perpetuating because it means Labour is afraid to campaign on this issue.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
The West doesn't really exist as a coherent, consistent bloc whilst Trump is close to power on America First.
Biden can promise whatever, but there is a 50% chance those promises are irrelevant in a years time.
Isn't son-in-law Kushner a Saudi made man? As long as money heads Trumpwards, SA are probably the one country that Trump would hold to existing deals.
There's some speculation that's where some of the classified documents ended up.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
Disagree, there’s a growing disconnect between raw GDP figures and household real incomes. While the raw jobs numbers haven’t been better for decades, pay rises haven’t kept up with inflation.
The vast majority of Americans don’t feel, to paraphrase Ronald Regan, that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Indeed, but wages are still tracking a long way behind pre-pandemic earning power.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Difficulty is... How? What's in it for the Saudis?
That’s the easy bit. A big discount on their next tranche of F35s, and the facilitation of a big chunk of change towards the $100bn of FDI they’re looking to book for their Neom project.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
They've never had F-35 and never will because Israel won't allow it.
Now that the Germans have lifted the Eurofighter to KSA ban the UK government can't do anything but lift MBS's thawb and pucker up. Otherwise combat aircraft production in the UK ends in 2026/7.
Wasn’t the whole reason the ME situation escalated so much recently, because there was about to be a relations and trade deal between Saudi and Israel?
Yes, it’s very much in the UK’s interest to get the Typhoons to Saudi as well.
Back on topic, no wonder the Tories tried to keep the elderly alive during Covid, at the expense of the prosperity and mental health of younger people. Imagine the effect on Tory votes if oldies had been allowed to die to protect the rest of the population, and there were 50% fewer over 65s. Or would under 65s have been more grateful and more inclined to vote Tory?
Absolutely spot on. We should have allowed the elderly to shield whilst young people got on with life. All that’s happened is the entitled older generation have got everything handed to them and instead of being reflective they just shout at everyone and call them thick, woke and stupid. Enough.
This again? It was never an option. And I love the 'allowed' the elderly to shield. My mother is 78, runs three times a week including Park run, goes swimming, has a sewing group, drives people to hospital and shopping. Why should she have stopped all that just so you could go out and about? The economy is ALL people.
Besides many many younger people died of covid and more would have done had hospitals become overrun.
You are ridiculously wishing away facts if you think shielding just the elderly was at all possible.
On topic, I note that while Mike mentions that the Tories have only held 35% of their 2019GE voters, the Lib Dems have kept even fewer: just 33%. Despite that, they'll still make gains.
Lost most of their anti-Corbyn votes and replaced them with anti-Tory votes.
Except they haven't. That's why they're down from 12% at the 2019 GE to about 9.5% now.
They will pick up anti-Con tactical votes - and, of course, these will be in highly efficient places - but their overall vote is down.
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
Early reviews sound very positive. Any idea if it will eventually reach other platforms? Apple is one of the ones I dont subscribe too...
Another remarkable sporting story today is that Djokovic didn't generate a single break point today...that must be a first for him in a slam (or any game of tennis), and is the kind of defeat that I don't he'll come back from
So we’re NOT giving back Diego Garcia, in particular we are NOT handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius (alias China)
Good. We have to stop seeing the world as this peaceful place where we can do nice Wokey things just because. The world is a lot more hostile than it was - Russia and China scheme against the entire west
It's a disgusting decision. The Chagossians have been denied justice for too long. Let them return to their homeland. There's nothing "wokey" about the idea that people shouldn't be forcibly removed from their homes and have their lives destroyed by high handed imperial powers. Their return doesn't prevent the US continuing to operate the base on Diego Garcia. The fight will continue and in the end justice will prevail, whatever this unelected privileged POS says.
Let's see how much "justice" there is in the world when Russia, China and Iran all call the shots - as real imperial powers.
The rules have changed. We're no longer in a happy 1990s situation where the liberal democratic rules-based international order rules supreme, and we can freely indulge in lop-sided self-hatred.
We need to retain strategic bases and they need to be British. I'm sure the few hundred Chagossians who were displaced many decades ago - just as those displaced in London when Heathrow was built- can live with it.
Quite so. Enough now
Also, I can see a moral case for chagossians being allowed to live on the islands again, but sadly it will likely be impractical given the islands’ strategic value to the entire west. But handing them over to Mauritius??? Who could then close the base whenever their best friends the Chinese simply asked?
They never belonged to Mauritius, they are hundreds of miles away from Mauritius; it was spineless woke British self hatred at its worst - doing something entirely unnecessary AND strategically self harming - all so a couple of civil servants and politicians could feel virtuous and smug for a year or so
At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.
Less of that in the South West by all accounts.
So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.
Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
In the two seats in which I have an interest, Godalming and Ash (Surrey) is seeing a massive LibDem effort (including lots of in-person deliveries) and a substantial Tory effort too. Didcot and Wantage (Oxon) is seeing less activity and nearly all of it by Royal Mail deliveries with the pizza ads. Labour had a street stand last week with decent takeup but it's the only such event by anyone that I'm aware of in recent months.
The difference is that Godalming and Ash is dominated by the town and has high-profile Tory (Jeremy Hunt) and LibDem (Paul Follows) candidates, whereas D+W is spread out across numerous small towns and villages, with many residents commuters from London or Oxford and not that interested in local politics. Seats with a lot of visible local campaigning are more liable to have levels of tactical voting; others will I suppose tend to go with national swings.
A lot of LD effort in Guildford. Lots of leaflets and canvassing. I have only seen one Tory newspaper delivered by Royal Mail with no mention of the LDs (which makes sense, why highlight they are the challengers). Tory and LD leaflets competing as to how many pictures of their candidates they can get on each leaflet. At one of the action days there was a story going around that the Guildford Tories had received £250,000 from central office. No idea if true.
From my facebook feeds there seems to be the same sort of LD effort in surrounding constituencies (How times change being surrounded by marginals in Surrey)
TSE...I'm a Pep man....but what a loss....if Klopp is drawn to Saudi then we may as lose our hope ion everything
He’s knackered.
I suspect he’ll take a break then take the Germany job.
I recall from a while back that Klopp had a reputation for building sides that would work like mad for 2 to 3 years and overwhelm sides with workrate, but that eventually the players would tire of being knackered all the time and the system would break until a new side could be built (to keep the hunger levels). No idea if thats true.
TSE...I'm a Pep man....but what a loss....if Klopp is drawn to Saudi then we may as lose our hope ion everything
He’s knackered.
I suspect he’ll take a break then take the Germany job.
I think that's right. I think I will he'll have a good handle on his successor too. He's not going to want his astonishing legacy at Liverpool fucked up after seeing what happened at Utd after Fergie....
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
These guys did a lot (most?) of the costuming for MOTA, another triumph for British manufacturing. Must have made a pretty penny as their jackets aren't cheap, though no doubt a good bulk price in return for the publicity.
On topic, I note that while Mike mentions that the Tories have only held 35% of their 2019GE voters, the Lib Dems have kept even fewer: just 33%. Despite that, they'll still make gains.
The LD vote, even by their own standards, was horrendously inefficient in 2019. 11 seats off 3.7m votes. Perhaps a result of Swinsonian hubris, perhaps crap national campaign organisation.
I expect a much more targeted and effective campaign this time around. Then absolute (and nat share) may decrease but I would not be surprised to see the LDs bring home 30+ seats.
My other prediction is that the Greens will not return a single MP, and think the solution to it is to bang on about Gaza.
On topic, I note that while Mike mentions that the Tories have only held 35% of their 2019GE voters, the Lib Dems have kept even fewer: just 33%. Despite that, they'll still make gains.
The LD vote, even by their own standards, was horrendously inefficient in 2019. 11 seats off 3.7m votes. Perhaps a result of Swinsonian hubris, perhaps crap national campaign organisation.
I expect a much more targeted and effective campaign this time around. Then absolute (and nat share) may decrease but I would not be surprised to see the LDs bring home 30+ seats.
My other prediction is that the Greens will not return a single MP, and think the solution to it is to bang on about Gaza.
Reminiscing about that goal against Scotland surely worth a few votes?
At a Lib Dem bash this evening. Consistent story from multiple blue wall constituencies that the Tories are throwing everything at them. Spamming Facebook and other elderly platforms, leaflets through the doors at almost Lib Dem levels, taking up local causes they never showed interest in before like there’s no tomorrow.
Less of that in the South West by all accounts.
So it seems they’ve decided to make the blue/yellow marginals in the Home Counties their Stalingrad. Perhaps they’ve given up on the red wall.
Yes, I'm seeing no evidence of a Tory effort here, where I'm in the (probably) unusual situation of the Boundary Commission moving me from a 2019 marginal into a 2024 marginal. I had one generic addressed letter last year from the Tory candidate (and current MP for Dewsbury), and that's it. It's also a marginal Tory ward (now - it was rock solid in the late 2010s but Lab won by 15 votes last May), and no activity on that front either. That said, precious little from Labour too.
In the two seats in which I have an interest, Godalming and Ash (Surrey) is seeing a massive LibDem effort (including lots of in-person deliveries) and a substantial Tory effort too. Didcot and Wantage (Oxon) is seeing less activity and nearly all of it by Royal Mail deliveries with the pizza ads. Labour had a street stand last week with decent takeup but it's the only such event by anyone that I'm aware of in recent months.
The difference is that Godalming and Ash is dominated by the town and has high-profile Tory (Jeremy Hunt) and LibDem (Paul Follows) candidates, whereas D+W is spread out across numerous small towns and villages, with many residents commuters from London or Oxford and not that interested in local politics. Seats with a lot of visible local campaigning are more liable to have levels of tactical voting; others will I suppose tend to go with national swings.
A lot of LD effort in Guildford. Lots of leaflets and canvassing. I have only seen one Tory newspaper delivered by Royal Mail with no mention of the LDs (which makes sense, why highlight they are the challengers). Tory and LD leaflets competing as to how many pictures of their candidates they can get on each leaflet. At one of the action days there was a story going around that the Guildford Tories had received £250,000 from central office. No idea if true.
From my facebook feeds there seems to be the same sort of LD effort in surrounding constituencies (How times change being surrounded by marginals in Surrey)
How many ex-Londoners will have moved into those seats over the last 10 years? Must be a lot and unlike historically that demographic aren't turning Tory as they move out and gain a bit of wealth to conserve.
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
Early reviews sound very positive. Any idea if it will eventually reach other platforms? Apple is one of the ones I dont subscribe too...
Eventually, I expect so, and DVD. The first episode you can watch free to see if you want more; I think there's also a seven day free trial offer, so you can binge the whole thing without paying
Only the already triggered are going to get triggered by that one I'm afraid. Next.
And only the already-blind will not LOL at Starmer.
It would appear that only 20% of those polled by YouGov are sighted.
Firstly, he's hardly being pressed on the matters, is he? And the Starmer Defence Squad screech as ever. It hasn't got traction in the media; and that's fair enough at the moment. It doesn't mean that it's not real. Or funny.
Secondly, you make the false assumption that people who are aware of this would be put off voting Labour. As you say, 20% of people are willing to vote for the Conservatives at the moment, despite everything, and even Johnson sill has his acolytes!
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
I think Nagelsmann should be worried. They have friendlies against France and the Netherlands in March. If they go badly, the clamour to get Klopp in for the Euros will be huge.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
Early reviews sound very positive. Any idea if it will eventually reach other platforms? Apple is one of the ones I dont subscribe too...
Eventually, I expect so, and DVD. The first episode you can watch free to see if you want more; I think there's also a seven day free trial offer, so you can binge the whole thing without paying
I love BoB, but have never finished the pacific. Don't quite know why.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
You could get a gig on Russian TV with that kind of schtick.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
LESS APOLOGISING, MOAR COLONISING!
Exactly. Also it will reinvigorate the national sense of Britishness as we beat the crap out of innocent poor tiny nations again, and steal all their stupid art made out of straw and poo
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
Did you hear about Konstantin Kisin - a first-generation immigrant - getting heckled on Question Time last night, when he said that the UK is a wonderful place, one of the best countries in the world to live?
The young lady heckling being totally oblivious to the fact that she’s allowed to heckle a guest on a TV programme, is something that it’s impossible to do in most of the world.
Even Fox News reports that the economy is in a sweet spot with good growth but not so much as to reignite inflation.
I remain of the view that these economic performance figures are going to drive Biden's popularity northwards during the coming months. If we end up with a Biden Trump rematch (and I think we will) it will not be as close as it was in 2020.
My view too. Economy plus incumbency plus uncommitted minds focusing properly on Trump. He loses again and it's not that close.
I've long thought that Biden will easily beat Trump. They could have indicted Trump eons ago for the January 6th nonsense. FFS he was telling the notrights beforehand to fight like hell on Twitter. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but it suits the Democrats down to the ground to have the Court stuff running in election year and keeping January 6th omnipresent
Having Trump as the candidate helps a million other Democrats too down ticket fighting their own battles.
Matchup polls at this time are different from previous years because of Trump's name recognition. That is why he is riding high.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
Imperial swagger is fuck all to do with the commercial success of S Korea. And we started the abandonment of heavy manufacturing some time prior to 1997.
We need to rediscover basic competence, rather than an inflated view of ourselves.
Again, the Tories haven't been in office for the last four decades.
Stop your lies.
Well they have - just not for the whole of the period.
If you look at spending as a percentage of GDP, there was a steady decline from the early 80s to ... around 1997. It been (with minor fluctuations) more or less steady since then.
Defence procurement appears to have got progressively worse, irrespective of the party in power.
Labour put in place lots of naval cuts and trimmed the size of the army post 1997. Look at how many frigates and destroyers we started with and where we ended up. And how the army shrunk from c.120k to 100k.
But, this is a distraction. The real issue is that since the late 80s, when victory in the Cold War was in sight, neither party has invested properly in our defence and that now needs to be reversed.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
O/T but the third TV drama serial, companion to Band of Brothers and The Pacific, Masters of the Air, is released today from Apple, with the first episode free. One of the two writers worked on the earlier volumes and one of the directors is retained from the Pacific, and Spielberg and Hanks are executive directors.
Early reviews sound very positive. Any idea if it will eventually reach other platforms? Apple is one of the ones I dont subscribe too...
Eventually, I expect so, and DVD. The first episode you can watch free to see if you want more; I think there's also a seven day free trial offer, so you can binge the whole thing without paying
I love BoB, but have never finished the pacific. Don't quite know why.
Thee action stuff was good in The Pacific, the human interest stuff less so, cringey and/or boring.
Well as a good Muslim boy I cannot comment on sausages.
Question - given that fine sausages can be made from lamb, beef and venison, are there halal sausages? If not, why not?
There are Halal sausages but the vegan ones taste like rubber and I prefer seekh kebabs made from lamb or chicken.
Vegan sausages are a strange idea to me - if you don’t want to eat meat, why eat something that looks like a meat product.
Lamb or venison sausages are especially good. I always include some in the mix for BBQ. Can’t see why you couldn’t make them without any pork products at all. Or do they?
Lamb kebabs made from pieces of real lamb are magnificent, if done right. The marinading is critical.
I do want to eat meat. So eating something that gives me a similar experience without the guilt is a winner.
We had some plant-based mince earlier this week, and plant-based sausages today. Yum!
Yuk. And this one is easy - just lose the guilt.
There's nothing wrong with eating meat. The whole ecosystem of the world depends on such a food chain.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
Did you hear about Konstantin Kisin - a first-generation immigrant - getting heckled on Question Time last night, when he said that the UK is a wonderful place, one of the best countries in the world to live?
The young lady heckling being totally oblivious to the fact that she’s allowed to heckle a guest on a TV programme, is something that it’s impossible to do in most of the world.
You sometimes wonder if people ever take a look outside their bubbles.
Again, the Tories haven't been in office for the last four decades.
Stop your lies.
They have been in power for 32 of the last 45 years.
And, for the first 7 years of that there was a massive rise in defence spending. And you forget Labour's cuts too.
This football club supporter partisanship that insults the intelligence of the site and, since there's no sign Labour intend to do anything about it either it's all scarfs, rattles, and chanting in the stands.
I think Nagelsmann should be worried. They have friendlies against France and the Netherlands in March. If they go badly, the clamour to get Klopp in for the Euros will be huge.
Germany to win the Euros. Mourinho (Portugal or England) to win the World Cup.
Are the East Asians now the only people capable of building anything??
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
Comments
Someone is getting it very wrong
IF you are right, there is clearly money to be made betting against The Donald
If the report by the actual IT expert (posted the other day) was correct, re-writing that module and adding in an audit layer for database writes would have fixed the system. Which wouldn’t have cost that much money or time.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude passed $80 yesterday, and is now trading at $82.
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve suggested that Biden and Sunak need to find a way to get the Saudis pumping oil like crazy for the rest of this year; something that has the effect of both reducing domestic inflation in the West, and starving Putin of hard currency for his war.
Two possible caveats
1. A black-ish swan. Some foreign policy disaster where Biden appears a dangerous idiot. Iran acquiring nukes would be one of those. A Putin attack on NATO?
2. Illegal immigration. This isn't a black swan, this is a white swan sailing directly towards the White House. This is what could most easily bring down Biden, despite rising wages
So good for them for waking up. I'm not so sure about us - good intentions but somewhat short on delivery.
Ah, no sorry, wrong empire.
This is the position Major was in following the collapse of his economic policy when Sterling crashed out of the ERM, which meant that the Tories went down to a crushing defeat in 1997, despite the fact that the economy was recovering well from the earlier recession by that point.
Dems have abortion, Trumps have immigration, which are both powerful drivers. If the economy goes particularly well or badly it is probably decisive, if it is a moderately good year I suspect it will be very close again and contested in the courts.
The difference is that Godalming and Ash is dominated by the town and has high-profile Tory (Jeremy Hunt) and LibDem (Paul Follows) candidates, whereas D+W is spread out across numerous small towns and villages, with many residents commuters from London or Oxford and not that interested in local politics. Seats with a lot of visible local campaigning are more liable to have levels of tactical voting; others will I suppose tend to go with national swings.
(Set my first years an essay on why homeopathy should not be paid for by the NHS...)
Stop your lies.
A stick or two as well, that the West will look as unfavourably on sanctions-busting trade when it comes to Russia, as they do when it’s Iran.
The Gulf states are trying to play all sides at the moment, and winning against everyone.
Rockall feels like a Sunak-scale imperial project. They could open a Spoons on it to put possession beyond contest.
Gustav Klimt portrait found after almost 100 years
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68102376
Biden can promise whatever, but there is a 50% chance those promises are irrelevant in a years time.
Now that the Germans have lifted the Eurofighter to KSA ban the UK government can't do anything but lift MBS's thawb and pucker up. Otherwise combat aircraft production in the UK ends in 2026/7.
Some late in the day intervention by the Biden administration might not be enough. When the Orange One promises incoherent base solutions, he will be listened to, and his message decoded into something the voter likes.
It's very clearly now the intention of Trump to prevent his party in Congress coming to any agreement with the Democrats on legislation to address the border issue.
But it's not impossible that Biden manages to broker an agreement despite that.
As Director of Public Prosecutions, I saw how antisocial behaviour can ruin lives.
As Prime Minister, I will take tough action on yobs terrorising our streets.
It’s time to bring respect back to Britain.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1750806878630584658?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Indeed, the Post Office was running something akin to an extortion racket.
There must be a number of other Corporate agencies who have been doing something similar, and I expect their senior executives may be following the Horizon Inquiry and thinking 'there but for the grace of God...'
https://www.politico.eu/article/french-top-court-canceled-visa-clause-for-rich-brits-brexit/
We had some plant-based mince earlier this week, and plant-based sausages today. Yum!
The rules have changed. We're no longer in a happy 1990s situation where the liberal democratic rules-based international order rules supreme, and we can freely indulge in lop-sided self-hatred.
We need to retain strategic bases and they need to be British. I'm sure the few hundred Chagossians who were displaced many decades ago - just as those displaced in London when Heathrow was built- can live with it.
According to this:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
which seems to be total aid from Jan 22 to Oct 23
even Hungary has given 50% more aid (as % of GDP) to Ukraine than the UK has. Admittedly almost all of Hungary's aid is 'Share of EU aid'. If you count refugee costs then the UK is even further behind (I think).
If you look at spending as a percentage of GDP, there was a steady decline from the early 80s to ... around 1997.
It been (with minor fluctuations) more or less steady since then.
Defence procurement appears to have got progressively worse, irrespective of the party in power.
The politics is interesting though because you and most others would automatically believe Conservatives are strong on defence and Labour weak. It is self-perpetuating because it means Labour is afraid to campaign on this issue.
https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/jurgen-klopp-announces-decision-step-down-liverpool-manager-end-season
Yes, it’s very much in the UK’s interest to get the Typhoons to Saudi as well.
Besides many many younger people died of covid and more would have done had hospitals become overrun.
You are ridiculously wishing away facts if you think shielding just the elderly was at all possible.
They will pick up anti-Con tactical votes - and, of course, these will be in highly efficient places - but their overall vote is down.
I suspect he’ll take a break then take the Germany job.
Also, I can see a moral case for chagossians being allowed to live on the islands again, but sadly it will likely be impractical given the islands’ strategic value to the entire west. But handing them over to Mauritius??? Who could then close the base whenever their best friends the Chinese simply asked?
They never belonged to Mauritius, they are hundreds of miles away from Mauritius; it was spineless woke British self hatred at its worst - doing something entirely unnecessary AND strategically self harming - all so a couple of civil servants and politicians could feel virtuous and smug for a year or so
From my facebook feeds there seems to be the same sort of LD effort in surrounding constituencies (How times change being surrounded by marginals in Surrey)
There is no club side that would interest him....
I expect a much more targeted and effective campaign this time around. Then absolute (and nat share) may decrease but I would not be surprised to see the LDs bring home 30+ seats.
My other prediction is that the Greens will not return a single MP, and think the solution to it is to bang on about Gaza.
Sorry, France, you’re on the hook at Hinkley Point
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2024/jan/25/sorry-france-youre-on-the-hook-at-hinkley-point-edf
Hinkley Point C could be delayed to 2031 and cost up to £35bn, says EDF
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/23/hinkley-point-c-could-be-delayed-to-2031-and-cost-up-to-35bn-says-edf
We should have got the Koreans to build it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barakah_nuclear_power_plant
Secondly, you make the false assumption that people who are aware of this would be put off voting Labour. As you say, 20% of people are willing to vote for the Conservatives at the moment, despite everything, and even Johnson sill has his acolytes!
It does sometimes feel that way. The entire west is seized with a pathetic lassitude
I think it’s because we are at the end of decades of fat complacency (living off our achievements from 1500-1997) and later that has been tainted with defensiveness. Guilt. Self loathing. Apathetic doubt
We need to be proactive. DO THINGS. We need - especially in Britain - to regain some imperial swagger, start conquering and humiliating minor countries and then FFS STOP APOLOGISING
Granted the planning process was likely far simpler, but even so...
Defence spending under Thatcher rose to 1985-1986.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=bFEpKufSbv4
The young lady heckling being totally oblivious to the fact that she’s allowed to heckle a guest on a TV programme, is something that it’s impossible to do in most of the world.
Having Trump as the candidate helps a million other Democrats too down ticket fighting their own battles.
Matchup polls at this time are different from previous years because of Trump's name recognition. That is why he is riding high.
And we started the abandonment of heavy manufacturing some time prior to 1997.
We need to rediscover basic competence, rather than an inflated view of ourselves.
But, this is a distraction. The real issue is that since the late 80s, when victory in the Cold War was in sight, neither party has invested properly in our defence and that now needs to be reversed.
Is there any sign Labour intend to do this?
There's nothing wrong with eating meat. The whole ecosystem of the world depends on such a food chain.
That’s obviously not happening anywhere in the UK, but most of the planned and proposed projects are on existing nuclear power sites anyway.
This football club supporter partisanship that insults the intelligence of the site and, since there's no sign Labour intend to do anything about it either it's all scarfs, rattles, and chanting in the stands.