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LAB moves to an 86% betting chance to win a Rutherglen by-election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
imageLAB moves to an 86% betting chance to win a Rutherglen by-election – politicalbetting.com

The big political betting news today is that a by-election looks set to take place in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West which was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,121

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



    Vicious things. Will have your finger to the bone quicker than you can say Sir Laurie Magnus. Just look at the evil intent in its eyes.
    Guessing you're joking, but they can be extremely vicious creatures.

    We got 3 hamsters years ago from Pets at Home. They were a breed that P@H sold together and said were suitable for living together (many aren't).

    Not long after we got them I woke up, went to the cage and told my then-girlfriend (now wife) that two of the hamsters had died and I disposed of them.

    What I never told her, was that the third had eaten its siblings down to the bones.
    Oh dear. Was he the notorious Abu Hamster?
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 117
    L/T: Mogg on the WAO defending Braverman for whom he has a high regard. Now, if you're a prominent Tory in a spot of bother, you can always rely on Jacob to spring to your defence viz. Boris, Raab. And v quickly too, he's a great microphone/camera chaser. But debatable how helpful he really is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,149
    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,149
    FPT
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068
    sbjme19 said:

    L/T: Mogg on the WAO defending Braverman for whom he has a high regard. Now, if you're a prominent Tory in a spot of bother, you can always rely on Jacob to spring to your defence viz. Boris, Raab. And v quickly too, he's a great microphone/camera chaser. But debatable how helpful he really is.

    Isn’t the Mogg becoming a kind of Rogerdamus for Tories in trouble?

    “What’s the situation with X?”

    “Mogg was on the radio defending him/her/it”

    “Oh, so they are fucked, then”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    This sounds like the FAA's least boring job.

    https://spacenews.com/agencies-studying-safety-issues-of-lox-methane-launch-vehicles/
    ...The FAA has set up a test stand at the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. A crane 43 meters tall will be used to drop stainless steel containers containing mixtures of LOX and methane. A series of tests is planned to start in June on three-week intervals to measure the explosive power of that propellant combination...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Arsenal have been almost Spursy in their end to the season.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951
    edited May 2023
    Baroness Buscombe smashing Starmer over his mental health speech on WATO. Sarah Montague seems to agree Labour are a load of s***e.

    On the other hand she seems much happier with Ben Houchen's "mayoral development corporation" steel works project.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED

    Hyde is at least readable, though.

    I'm a regular Guardian reader, and haven't looked at a Toynbee article for a good couple of decades.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,087
    Leon said:

    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED

    There used to be a standard CiF post (which everyone and anyone would put up de temps en temps) which listed all the Graun hacks and where they were educated.

    Clue: 99.7% at public school.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED

    Hyde is at least readable, though.

    I'm a regular Guardian reader, and haven't looked at a Toynbee article for a good couple of decades.
    Yes. At her best Hyde is brilliant. Lost a bit of vim recently tho

    Likewise I stopped reading Toynbee at least a decade back. Just so predictable. Hyde can at least make you laugh
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,951

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Beers and curries all round if Labour win the seat!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Rutherglen could be bit of a GOTV battle. My prediction is a 2000 majority for Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED

    Hyde is at least readable, though.

    I'm a regular Guardian reader, and haven't looked at a Toynbee article for a good couple of decades.
    Yes. At her best Hyde is brilliant. Lost a bit of vim recently tho

    Likewise I stopped reading Toynbee at least a decade back. Just so predictable. Hyde can at least make you laugh
    I think too long in either government or opposition can make you lose your sense of humour. I'm not sure Toynbee ever had one, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    Sandpit said:

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Arsenal have been almost Spursy in their end to the season.
    Although they will still win the title when City fail their FFP charges and get relegated!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,064
    Another straw in the wind.

    Key Republican recruits hesitate to jump in if Trump is the nominee
    Potential Republican candidates in swing states and districts are reluctant to throw hats into ring.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/22/donald-trump-dominance-spooks-down-ballot-recruits-00097995
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,697
    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    Indy below Express, Mirror and Sun?
    FT below Times?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,928
    There is another by-election pending - for a hereditary Lib Dem in the House of Lords. There are 3 candidates - Lord Belhaven, Earl Lloyd George, and Earl Russell. So 2 descendants of Liberal Prime ministers and one who isn't.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    The funniest outcome would be the recall petition not making 10% (which on bare precedent is a one in three chance).. One could hardly blame the poor, abused Scottish voter for having stopped giving a feck.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt


    On the poshness of La Guardianista

    Polly Toynbee is outdone in poshness by many of her fellow Groaniad hacks eg her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago I heard that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED

    Hyde is at least readable, though.

    I'm a regular Guardian reader, and haven't looked at a Toynbee article for a good couple of decades.
    Yes. At her best Hyde is brilliant. Lost a bit of vim recently tho

    Likewise I stopped reading Toynbee at least a decade back. Just so predictable. Hyde can at least make you laugh
    I think too long in either government or opposition can make you lose your sense of humour. I'm not sure Toynbee ever had one, though.
    Quintessentially humourless I suspect. Apparently when she first joined the guardian the less evolved male guardian journalists, who resented her earnest posh feminist ways, used to sing “Polly put the kettle on” when she came in the office

    Appalling but funny

    It’s weird how she has been completely overtaken by tenth wave feminism (or whatever it is now) in regards to the trans terf wars. No one cares what she thinks because her opinion is irrelevantly outdated. I bet she finds that quite hard. To be an outdated “progressive” is not very progressive. She’s like the Jennifer’s Diary of The British Left
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    edited May 2023
    Report in The Critic about the National Conservatism conference.

    "A revolution came to Westminster from May 15–17, 2023. This was when the National Conservatism conference, after three events in the States and two in Europe, came to Britain. To hear talk of it from the left and some liberal Tories, this was a gathering of fascists and nut-jobs, coming together to overthrow democracy, equality and all the good things of late-stage liberalism. In reality, it was an argument between Peelite Whigs and Disraelian Tories, with a dash of foreign flavour thrown in to season the mix. Looking back, it doesn’t seem obvious that the Whigs had the better of it.

    Surveying the hall on the first day, I immediately noticed the youth of the audience, 40 per cent of which was under thirty. There was a definite charge to the air. I haven’t felt such a sense of vibrancy to a right-wing event in Britain, ever. Are there underlying issues and schisms? Obviously, given national conservatism’s nascent form in Britain. Still, the potential for something significant, maybe even positive, to happen is there."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/reflections-on-a-revolution-in-westminster/
  • On topic, there may be some value on the SNP here.

    The SNP have a good by-election machine, 5k (10%) isn't a bad majority, and there will be some backs-to-the-wall fighting.

    Labour are the more likely winners, but the odds may be a bit flattering.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155
    Electoral Calculus suggests Labour take Rutherglen if the SNP's lead over them (in Scotland) is anything below 17 points. The 'best' Scotland poll for the SNP post-Sturgeon was a YouGov one which had their lead over Labour at 9 points. The most unfavourable poll for them by contrast was R&W, which had their lead over Labour at just 3.
    The SNP really shouldn't have a prayer of holding Rutherglen.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    edited May 2023

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    Indy below Express, Mirror and Sun?
    FT below Times?
    Yes. That’s my honest opinion. And I know many many journalists

    The FT employs more geeky finance and tech nerds (of necessity) and they are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds than the social butterflies who interned at the Times etc

    It’s still fairly posh. As are all newspapers these days. In my life I’ve watched journalism become a job for posher and posher people. It’s tragic

    Unpaid internships should be banned. If Starmer does that I will applaud him loudly. They are meant to be illegal now but newspapers get round it
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    It's a great relief to me that (so far as I can tell) my ancestors were moderately prosperous Irish farmers, who doubtless benefitted from land reform in the 1880's, an Irish actor, a carpenter at Guinness Brewery (which was a good job to have in the Great Depression) and miners from the Somerset and South Wales coalfields (one of whom rose to be colliery manager).

    It means I'm completely free of posh guilt.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883

    On topic, there may be some value on the SNP here.

    The SNP have a good by-election machine, 5k (10%) isn't a bad majority, and there will be some backs-to-the-wall fighting.

    Labour are the more likely winners, but the odds may be a bit flattering.

    Interested to see if ALBA run a candidate. Even a couple of % points taken by them might make a difference if it's tight.

    Their current cri de cœur is that independence supporting parties must cooperate by putting up single candidates in constituencies but I suspect that they might not be able to resist the chance of being involved in a media frenzy.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    Sandpit said:

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Arsenal have been almost Spursy in their end to the season.
    We're not complaining. #nffc
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Andy_JS said:

    Report in The Critic about the National Conservatism conference.

    "A revolution came to Westminster from May 15–17, 2023. This was when the National Conservatism conference, after three events in the States and two in Europe, came to Britain. To hear talk of it from the left and some liberal Tories, this was a gathering of fascists and nut-jobs, coming together to overthrow democracy, equality and all the good things of late-stage liberalism. In reality, it was an argument between Peelite Whigs and Disraelian Tories, with a dash of foreign flavour thrown in to season the mix. Looking back, it doesn’t seem obvious that the Whigs had the better of it.

    Surveying the hall on the first day, I immediately noticed the youth of the audience, 40 per cent of which was under thirty. There was a definite charge to the air. I haven’t felt such a sense of vibrancy to a right-wing event in Britain, ever. Are there underlying issues and schisms? Obviously, given national conservatism’s nascent form in Britain. Still, the potential for something significant, maybe even positive, to happen is there."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/reflections-on-a-revolution-in-westminster/

    The trouble with NatCon is that they look at America and say “let’s be like that” when demonstrably America is a basket case.

    For all our sakes, our right wing brothers and sisters need to find a home grown form of conservatism and put an end to this reheated stuff. We know where that takes us and it is not a good place.

    FWIW I think Cameron came closest to the future with vote blue go green.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,145
    Andy_JS said:

    Report in The Critic about the National Conservatism conference.

    "A revolution came to Westminster from May 15–17, 2023. This was when the National Conservatism conference, after three events in the States and two in Europe, came to Britain. To hear talk of it from the left and some liberal Tories, this was a gathering of fascists and nut-jobs, coming together to overthrow democracy, equality and all the good things of late-stage liberalism. In reality, it was an argument between Peelite Whigs and Disraelian Tories, with a dash of foreign flavour thrown in to season the mix. Looking back, it doesn’t seem obvious that the Whigs had the better of it.

    Surveying the hall on the first day, I immediately noticed the youth of the audience, 40 per cent of which was under thirty. There was a definite charge to the air. I haven’t felt such a sense of vibrancy to a right-wing event in Britain, ever. Are there underlying issues and schisms? Obviously, given national conservatism’s nascent form in Britain. Still, the potential for something significant, maybe even positive, to happen is there."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/reflections-on-a-revolution-in-westminster/

    Similar stuff on the National Conservative conference on Spectator TV (20 mins)

    Is Conservatism moving to the left?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1gcuTPtULk
  • Electoral Calculus suggests Labour take Rutherglen if the SNP's lead over them (in Scotland) is anything below 17 points. The 'best' Scotland poll for the SNP post-Sturgeon was a YouGov one which had their lead over Labour at 9 points. The most unfavourable poll for them by contrast was R&W, which had their lead over Labour at just 3.
    The SNP really shouldn't have a prayer of holding Rutherglen.

    My mind goes back to the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006, held against the backdrop of Charles Kennedy's defenestration and pretty dire polling and headlines for the Lib Dems... and they won on a 16% swing.

    As I say, I think Labour should win it, but the value may be with SNP here. I can see the electorate being a little bit deliberately perverse about it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,066
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Report in The Critic about the National Conservatism conference.

    "A revolution came to Westminster from May 15–17, 2023. This was when the National Conservatism conference, after three events in the States and two in Europe, came to Britain. To hear talk of it from the left and some liberal Tories, this was a gathering of fascists and nut-jobs, coming together to overthrow democracy, equality and all the good things of late-stage liberalism. In reality, it was an argument between Peelite Whigs and Disraelian Tories, with a dash of foreign flavour thrown in to season the mix. Looking back, it doesn’t seem obvious that the Whigs had the better of it.

    Surveying the hall on the first day, I immediately noticed the youth of the audience, 40 per cent of which was under thirty. There was a definite charge to the air. I haven’t felt such a sense of vibrancy to a right-wing event in Britain, ever. Are there underlying issues and schisms? Obviously, given national conservatism’s nascent form in Britain. Still, the potential for something significant, maybe even positive, to happen is there."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/reflections-on-a-revolution-in-westminster/

    The trouble with NatCon is that they look at America and say “let’s be like that” when demonstrably America is a basket case.

    For all our sakes, our right wing brothers and sisters need to find a home grown form of conservatism and put an end to this reheated stuff. We know where that takes us and it is not a good place.

    FWIW I think Cameron came closest to the future with vote blue go green.
    Yes - can't they watch Lawrence Olivier as Henry V and formulate something just a bit less like rehashed Mussolini?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    Indy below Express, Mirror and Sun?
    FT below Times?
    Yes. That’s my honest opinion. And I know many many journalists

    The FT employs more geeky finance and tech nerds (of necessity) and they are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds than the social butterflies who interned at the Times etc

    It’s still fairly posh. As are all newspapers these days. In my life I’ve watched journalism become a job for posher and posher people. It’s tragic

    Unpaid internships should be banned. If Starmer does that I will applaud him loudly. They are meant to be illegal now but newspapers get round it
    Unpaid internships are already illegal in the UK.

    The "work experience" (for a full day or week 'work trial') loophole is what is currently being banned.

    Unfortunately, lots of places simply ignore the law, and no-one shops them because they want the leg up.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,951
    Doha is fucked with air pollution, traffic and chavs with money. I don't know why anybody would live here unless they were a chav with no money before they arrived.

    The Lusail track days are insane though. More like full on GT3 races where it's impossible to get black flagged.

    I could definitely be a travel writer.

    #genxfacebook
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Report in The Critic about the National Conservatism conference.

    "A revolution came to Westminster from May 15–17, 2023. This was when the National Conservatism conference, after three events in the States and two in Europe, came to Britain. To hear talk of it from the left and some liberal Tories, this was a gathering of fascists and nut-jobs, coming together to overthrow democracy, equality and all the good things of late-stage liberalism. In reality, it was an argument between Peelite Whigs and Disraelian Tories, with a dash of foreign flavour thrown in to season the mix. Looking back, it doesn’t seem obvious that the Whigs had the better of it.

    Surveying the hall on the first day, I immediately noticed the youth of the audience, 40 per cent of which was under thirty. There was a definite charge to the air. I haven’t felt such a sense of vibrancy to a right-wing event in Britain, ever. Are there underlying issues and schisms? Obviously, given national conservatism’s nascent form in Britain. Still, the potential for something significant, maybe even positive, to happen is there."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/reflections-on-a-revolution-in-westminster/

    The trouble with NatCon is that they look at America and say “let’s be like that” when demonstrably America is a basket case.

    For all our sakes, our right wing brothers and sisters need to find a home grown form of conservatism and put an end to this reheated stuff. We know where that takes us and it is not a good place.

    FWIW I think Cameron came closest to the future with vote blue go green.
    No. That’s what you want to happen. A right wing alternative to this maximum-immigration social Democrat mush is coming. It may take a decade. It will come
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    On topic, there may be some value on the SNP here.

    The SNP have a good by-election machine, 5k (10%) isn't a bad majority, and there will be some backs-to-the-wall fighting.

    Labour are the more likely winners, but the odds may be a bit flattering.

    The SNP hope will come from differential turnout. By-elections are tricky beasts.
    I don't fancy the SNP to win it, but I don't fancy taking on Labour at those implied odds either. Maybe worth a wee nibble on Labour in the hope that the Greens stand a candidate which will guarantee a Labour win.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,137
    I used to enjoy viciously teasing Polly on CIF years ago.

    She is the sort of English person who ruins Tuscany, especially in summer. Mind you the Tuscans are not much trusted by other Italians - so they probably deserve having ghastly English people who think they're posh but really really are not inflicted on them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Cyclefree said:

    I used to enjoy viciously teasing Polly on CIF years ago.

    She is the sort of English person who ruins Tuscany, especially in summer. Mind you the Tuscans are not much trusted by other Italians - so they probably deserve having ghastly English people who think they're posh but really really are not inflicted on them.

    Rich liberal Americans in Tuscany are much much worse
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    I for one am looking forward to this by-election, if it happens. To see @bigjohnowls cheering on the SNP and @malcolmg cheering on Labour will give warm and fuzzy feelings all over.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,540
    edited May 2023

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    Shoe envy. They covet the freedom of dirty sneakers as a relief from the restraint of a Louboutin . Why live in the shadow of a Crockett & Jones Oxford when you can revel in the freedom of trainers from Sports Direct? And buying new laces from Timpsons is so daring!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302
    Dura_Ace said:

    Doha is fucked with air pollution, traffic and chavs with money. I don't know why anybody would live here unless they were a chav with no money before they arrived.

    The Lusail track days are insane though. More like full on GT3 races where it's impossible to get black flagged.

    I could definitely be a travel writer.

    #genxfacebook

    When the World Cup was on, I took a virtual tour around Qatar on Google Streetview.
    Now, obviously, I admit this was not an optimal bit of exploratory tourism. But still - I came to the view that Qatar is possibly the ugliest country on earth. There is almost nothing edifying to look at.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    Farooq said:

    I for one am looking forward to this by-election, if it happens. To see @bigjohnowls cheering on the SNP and @malcolmg cheering on Labour will give warm and fuzzy feelings all over.

    I would be HUGELY surprised if your second hypothesis came to pass.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155

    Electoral Calculus suggests Labour take Rutherglen if the SNP's lead over them (in Scotland) is anything below 17 points. The 'best' Scotland poll for the SNP post-Sturgeon was a YouGov one which had their lead over Labour at 9 points. The most unfavourable poll for them by contrast was R&W, which had their lead over Labour at just 3.
    The SNP really shouldn't have a prayer of holding Rutherglen.

    My mind goes back to the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006, held against the backdrop of Charles Kennedy's defenestration and pretty dire polling and headlines for the Lib Dems... and they won on a 16% swing.

    As I say, I think Labour should win it, but the value may be with SNP here. I can see the electorate being a little bit deliberately perverse about it.
    Crucial difference mind is that Labour were in government in that by-election and the Lib Dems weren't (at least in Westminster).
    Not sure the SNP's are quite as good as by-elections as some people think, either.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Airdrie_and_Shotts_by-election
    Sturgeon was pretty much at peak popularity at this point (and no Green candidate), yet there was still a swing from the SNP to Labour.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,430
    slade said:

    There is another by-election pending - for a hereditary Lib Dem in the House of Lords. There are 3 candidates - Lord Belhaven, Earl Lloyd George, and Earl Russell. So 2 descendants of Liberal Prime ministers and one who isn't.

    https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/lords-information-office/2023/candidate-notice-falkland.pdf

    Lord Falkland was originally elected as a Lib Dem, but left the Lib Dems in 2011 and became a Crossbencher.

    It is interesting that his replacement will be a Lib Dem rather than a Crossbencher.

    Candidate CVs are better than usual:

    Belhaven and Stenton, L. (Liberal Democrat)
    I support individual freedom, equality, social justice, environmental and agricultural sustainability/protection, a market economy with strong government regulation, active engagement with the EU, free trade without tariff barriers. Banning conversion therapy. 50 years’ business experience in insurance, outsourcing, speech recognition and AI
    technology. 20 years working alongside NHS services and procurement. Strong interest in improving healthcare and social care provision, trade liberalisation,
    sustainable immigration management & human rights, taxation reform, incentivising business productivity.

    Lloyd-George of Dwyfor, E. (Liberal Democrat)
    Since my early years I have had a keen and personal interest in politics, espoused with the traditions and beliefs of a liberal. My working life started aged 19 in shipping, finishing in political risk insurance. Should I be elected, I would undertake to be a regular attender
    and to devote my maximum time and efforts to the Liberal Democrats and to the business of the House.

    Russell, E. (Liberal Democrat)
    I have been active in the Liberal Democrat Party as a Parliamentary and London Assembly candidate, a London Borough Councillor and campaign manager.
    As a professional photographer specialising in political events and conferences, charities and landscapes my work is much used on social media and has been exhibited. I am committed to work in the House with my experience of local government and knowledge of environmental issues and international relations
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    I for one am looking forward to this by-election, if it happens. To see @bigjohnowls cheering on the SNP and @malcolmg cheering on Labour will give warm and fuzzy feelings all over.

    I would be HUGELY surprised if your second hypothesis came to pass.
    I thought he said something along the lines of it would be good for Labour to beat the SNP to refocus minds on independence? Something like that, idk.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Sitrep 4. I am halfway through my hipflask and we are now on a near empty, perfect, Chinese-built motorway headed for Cairo


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,137
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I used to enjoy viciously teasing Polly on CIF years ago.

    She is the sort of English person who ruins Tuscany, especially in summer. Mind you the Tuscans are not much trusted by other Italians - so they probably deserve having ghastly English people who think they're posh but really really are not inflicted on them.

    Rich liberal Americans in Tuscany are much much worse
    Possibly. Central Tuscany in summer is to be avoided at all costs. The unknown unfashionable bits of the coast are the only place to go.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    edited May 2023
    The Chinese are building motorways around Asia/Africa the way the British used to build railways

    Eventually this is going to have some enormous geopolitical consequence which I can’t quite work out because I’m trying to wash down sunflower seeds with Egyptian malt whisky
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,903
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Think it's the best thing I've read by her. You can really sense her confusion and grappling with her background, whereas her normal stuff is a bit predictable.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Sitrep 4. I am halfway through my hipflask and we are now on a near empty, perfect, Chinese-built motorway headed for Cairo


    Whyyy is the driver in the outside lane if the road is empty :angry: ?
    While I'm at it, why do Egyptians beep the horn when they come off a roundabout?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    edited May 2023
    Will Kate Forbes and Alex Salmond secretly be delivering by election leaflets for Labour? An SNP loss would arguably be even better for them than for Starmer and Sarwar
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,986
    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Sitrep 4. I am halfway through my hipflask and we are now on a near empty, perfect, Chinese-built motorway headed for Cairo


    Whyyy is the driver in the outside lane if the road is empty :angry: ?
    While I'm at it, why do Egyptians beep the horn when they come off a roundabout?
    Egyptian hooting used to annoy me. In fact their horn beeping has annoyed me for 40 years. Belatedly I’ve realised they do it as a courtesy. To warn other people that they are close

    Seriously. That’s why they do it. It’s the aural equivalent of a brake light. Once you realise that, it is so much less annoying. Even welcome
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,149
    edited May 2023
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    Shoe envy. They covet the freedom of dirty sneakers as a relief from the restraint of a Louboutin . Why live in the shadow of a Crockett & Jones Oxford when you can revel in the freedom of trainers from Sports Direct? And buying new laces from Timpsons is so daring!
    I wish I could fit my feet into Louboutins.

    Only Louis Vuitton do shoes that fit my wide size 11s.

    Is why I have to buy them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    edited May 2023

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Some non posho journalists on the Telegraph/Spectator too eg Fraser Nelson, Camilla Tominey, the late Paul Johnson.

    The Guardian has the poshest journalists as its socially liberal, social democrat, pro EU, pro immigration and anti Brexit views tend to be mainly found in North London, university campuses and the top ranks of the public sector. Very few working class voters read or hold Guardian views, even if they voted Labour still in 2019 they were more likely to read the Mirror than the Guardian
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,121
    Leon said:

    The Chinese are building motorways around Asia/Africa the way the British used to build railways

    Eventually this is going to have some enormous geopolitical consequence which I can’t quite work out because I’m trying to wash down sunflower seeds with Egyptian malt whisky

    Given China is a one-party state, a Chinese answer to PB would be thoroughly boring, would it not?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,121
    Cyclefree said:

    I used to enjoy viciously teasing Polly on CIF years ago.

    She is the sort of English person who ruins Tuscany, especially in summer. Mind you the Tuscans are not much trusted by other Italians - so they probably deserve having ghastly English people who think they're posh but really really are not inflicted on them.

    They're obviously missing a Pisa the action.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    edited May 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too, Hague's father owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with his fellow OE Nicholas Soames in which he said of the comprehensive educated Hague ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'. He quite liked Blair though, apart from on Kosovo (Blair sent him a note after his illness was diagnosed) and was a big Princess Diana fan and worshipped Thatcher, though that was not fully reciprocated as The Lady never made him a senior Minister
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,137
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2: you don't know the tough life til your upstairs neighbour staggers into your flat bleeding from a stab wound!

    Cyclefree: you don't know the tough life til you encounter the wrong type of English visitor whilst visiting Tuscany from England.

    Hell comes in many flavours.

    I have lived a varied life.

    Shall I tell you about the time a burglar broke into the house I was living in in Brixton and came into my bedroom clutching my bread knife while I was in it alone?

    I loathe the Toynbees of this world. They seem very accurately described by Martin Amis here -

    "What we eventually run up against are the forces of humourlessness, and let me assure you that the humourless as a bunch don't just not know what's funny, they don't know what's serious. They have no common sense, either, and shouldn't be trusted with anything."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Lol. Literally just asked my driver

    “Who built this road? It’s amazing! Was it the Chinese?”

    He laughed.

    “Yes. Of course. The Chinese!”

    And he shrugged. Affably. Contentedly. He has a lovely new road which saves hours
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,137
    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too and his father who owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with Nicholas Soames in which he said ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'
    He had a nerve saying that about Heseltine, given his own family background.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,986
    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too and his father who owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with Nicholas Soames in which he said ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'
    I always thought that comment about Heseltine reflected worse on Clark than on Hezza. Snobbery is a very unpleasant, destructive and ultimately boring British disease.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,132
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Some non posho journalists on the Telegraph/Spectator too eg Fraser Nelson, Camilla Tominey, the late Paul Johnson.

    The Guardian has the poshest journalists as its socially liberal, social democrat, pro EU, pro immigration and anti Brexit views tend to be mainly found in North London, university campuses and the top ranks of the public sector. Very few working class voters read or hold Guardian views, even if they voted Labour still in 2019 they were more likely to read the Mirror than the Guardian
    Ah, Fraser's classic "everyman" experience of boarding at a private school.

    I grant you non-posh by comparison with Toynbee, though!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    Cav to retire. The greatest of them all at his particular niche of sport.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/65665546
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    Indy below Express, Mirror and Sun?
    FT below Times?
    Yes. That’s my honest opinion. And I know many many journalists

    The FT employs more geeky finance and tech nerds (of necessity) and they are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds than the social butterflies who interned at the Times etc

    It’s still fairly posh. As are all newspapers these days. In my life I’ve watched journalism become a job for posher and posher people. It’s tragic

    Unpaid internships should be banned. If Starmer does that I will applaud him loudly. They are meant to be illegal now but newspapers get round it
    The direction of The Star’s travel lately puts me in mind more of some strange offspring of Private Eye and Viz. Not posh but certainly knowing and ironic.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too and his father who owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with Nicholas Soames in which he said ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'
    He had a nerve saying that about Heseltine, given his own family background.
    He didn't say it - he reported someone else saying it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,986
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
    Fair enough. I don't read the Telegraph and I probably self-select towards the less posh bits of the Guardian, people like John Harris.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,302
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
    From the outside, poshos at the Telegraph seem to revel in their poshness ('I went to boarding school/something about the Cotswolds and/or the nanny/isn't this all a lark?') whereas silver spoons at the Guardian tend to be hidden away.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    Apropos only of the Hamster Horror Story on the last thread, the Wife and I used to have ferrets. They didn’t half smell and were occasionally nippy but they were extremely affectionate of one another and ourselves. I don’t understand the bad press they get.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Sandpit said:

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Arsenal have been almost Spursy in their end to the season.
    Although they will still win the title when City fail their FFP charges and get relegated!!
    I understand the charges are historical and don’t apply to this season.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too, Hague's father owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with his fellow OE Nicholas Soames in which he said of the comprehensive educated Hague ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'. He quite liked Blair though, apart from on Kosovo (Blair sent him a note after his illness was diagnosed) and was a big Princess Diana fan and worshipped Thatcher, though that was not fully reciprocated as The Lady never made him a senior Minister
    Thatcher's middling opinion of him is easy to infer, whether he fully realised it or not. Again, very artful editing.

    Hague does look a bit like a golf ball tbf.

    He also said that the parliamentarian he most admired was Dennis Skinner.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Cyclefree said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2: you don't know the tough life til your upstairs neighbour staggers into your flat bleeding from a stab wound!

    Cyclefree: you don't know the tough life til you encounter the wrong type of English visitor whilst visiting Tuscany from England.

    Hell comes in many flavours.

    I have lived a varied life.

    Shall I tell you about the time a burglar broke into the house I was living in in Brixton and came into my bedroom clutching my bread knife while I was in it alone?

    I loathe the Toynbees of this world. They seem very accurately described by Martin Amis here -

    "What we eventually run up against are the forces of humourlessness, and let me assure you that the humourless as a bunch don't just not know what's funny, they don't know what's serious. They have no common sense, either, and shouldn't be trusted with anything."
    Was is a Toynbee holding the bread knife?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777

    On topic, there may be some value on the SNP here.

    The SNP have a good by-election machine, 5k (10%) isn't a bad majority, and there will be some backs-to-the-wall fighting.

    Labour are the more likely winners, but the odds may be a bit flattering.

    Interested to see if ALBA run a candidate. Even a couple of % points taken by them might make a difference if it's tight.

    Their current cri de cœur is that independence supporting parties must cooperate by putting up single candidates in constituencies but I suspect that they might not be able to resist the chance of being involved in a media frenzy.
    Would the big man dare be up for a run, I wonder? That would put the cat well and truly among the pigeons.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,068
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I used to enjoy viciously teasing Polly on CIF years ago.

    She is the sort of English person who ruins Tuscany, especially in summer. Mind you the Tuscans are not much trusted by other Italians - so they probably deserve having ghastly English people who think they're posh but really really are not inflicted on them.

    Rich liberal Americans in Tuscany are much much worse
    I thought George Clooney stayed out of the way, modifying Ruger Mini-14s with bits of scrap, using hand tools.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    DougSeal said:

    Apropos only of the Hamster Horror Story on the last thread, the Wife and I used to have ferrets. They didn’t half smell and were occasionally nippy but they were extremely affectionate of one another and ourselves. I don’t understand the bad press they get.

    I love ferrets. My friend had ferrets. They used to come out the cage, up her arm and snuggle into her neck. Better pets than rabbits.

    I want a mini pig.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
    From the outside, poshos at the Telegraph seem to revel in their poshness ('I went to boarding school/something about the Cotswolds and/or the nanny/isn't this all a lark?') whereas silver spoons at the Guardian tend to be hidden away.
    Yes that’s fair. You’d never guess from reading marina Hyde that she’s so insanely loaded

    The telegraph actually has writers that admit they regularly go shooting

    Depending on my mood I can find either annoying or irrelevant. Good writing helps
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
    Fair enough. I don't read the Telegraph and I probably self-select towards the less posh bits of the Guardian, people like John Harris.
    My Guardian interaction tends to be with sport and football, where I think the posho bar is a bit lower generally.

    The Sun and Mirror journalists I've met have all seemed pretty posh to me, though there we get on to defining 'posh' (let's not).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,915
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Some non posho journalists on the Telegraph/Spectator too eg Fraser Nelson, Camilla Tominey, the late Paul Johnson.

    The Guardian has the poshest journalists as its socially liberal, social democrat, pro EU, pro immigration and anti Brexit views tend to be mainly found in North London, university campuses and the top ranks of the public sector. Very few working class voters read or hold Guardian views, even if they voted Labour still in 2019 they were more likely to read the Mirror than the Guardian
    Ah, Fraser's classic "everyman" experience of boarding at a private school.

    I grant you non-posh by comparison with Toynbee, though!
    Fraser Nelson went to the comprehensive Nairn Aacademy, he only then boarded as his father was posted abroad with the RAF who may well have paid the fees therefore. He also once worked as a barman

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraser_Nelson

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777
    Dura_Ace said:

    Doha is fucked with air pollution, traffic and chavs with money. I don't know why anybody would live here unless they were a chav with no money before they arrived.

    The Lusail track days are insane though. More like full on GT3 races where it's impossible to get black flagged.

    I could definitely be a travel writer.

    #genxfacebook

    Is the infrastructure there as improved as they said it was for the World Cup? I’m thinking about heading there for the F1 in October.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000

    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too and his father who owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with Nicholas Soames in which he said ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'
    I always thought that comment about Heseltine reflected worse on Clark than on Hezza. Snobbery is a very unpleasant, destructive and ultimately boring British disease.
    Like I say, it wasn't actually him that said it. And I'm not sure snobbery is peculiarly British.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Doha is fucked with air pollution, traffic and chavs with money. I don't know why anybody would live here unless they were a chav with no money before they arrived.

    The Lusail track days are insane though. More like full on GT3 races where it's impossible to get black flagged.

    I could definitely be a travel writer.

    #genxfacebook

    Is the infrastructure there as improved as they said it was for the World Cup? I’m thinking about heading there for the F1 in October.
    Haven't all the stadiums been towed away to the developing world now? Not sure if the artificial clouds are still there though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,470
    Incidentally on this theme of incredible Chinese motorways this is now the 4th or 5th country where I’ve encountered them in the last few years


    Turkey
    Sri Lanka
    Vietnam (I think)
    Egypt
    Thailand

    Imagine if, over the last 30 years, America - and the west in general - had abhorred warfare and instead decided to build motorways and infrastructure wherever it could. Imagine if the 29 trillion spent on the Iraq war had been spent on hospitals and hi speed rail

    The world would now be a much kinder place for us. And for humanity. I speak as an idiot that thought the Iraq war was a good if difficult idea
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
    It’s a truly weird and toxic mixture of snobbery and guilt. Toynbee is a proper snob. It oozes from every syllable of that article. She sneers. She can’t help it. She enjoys being posh so she can look down on almost everyone

    Yet at the same time I am sure she genuinely feels guilt at her privilege and has a sincere desire to help others - especially those “less fortunate”

    So you end up with weird and awkward contortions like that essay

    Is she worse or better than an outright snob like Alan Clark? I honestly dunno. He was funny. But a nasty snob. She’s not funny. But she’s probably done more for poor people while inwardly sneering at them and trying not to smell them
    Alan Clark was ultimately harmless (aside from to his immediate family). His diaries remain quite fascinating, and they are truly wonderfully edited - Ion Trewin really does give the whole of the man, his insecurities and frequent wrongness about things. Clark was an excellent and very funny writer, quite snobbish but also an inveterate romantic whose main goal was to give narrative justification for the events in his life.

    Only Chris Mullin has come close to him, I think.
    Alan Clark had a classic putdown of Michael Heseltine, though an extremely snobbish one. He said Heseltine 'was the type of man who has to buy his own furniture'.

    He was also quite snobbish about William Hague too and his father who owned a small drinks factory, recounting one conversation with Nicholas Soames in which he said ' I mean the man looks like a golf ball'
    I always thought that comment about Heseltine reflected worse on Clark than on Hezza. Snobbery is a very unpleasant, destructive and ultimately boring British disease.
    Considering the Clarks were trade from Paisley, they were strong words indeed. No bigger snobs than the recently arrived.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cav to retire. The greatest of them all at his particular niche of sport.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/65665546

    I hope he can get one TdF stage win this Summer. I don't think he will, unfortunately.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,777
    edited May 2023
    .deleted
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,239
    edited May 2023

    slade said:

    There is another by-election pending - for a hereditary Lib Dem in the House of Lords. There are 3 candidates - Lord Belhaven, Earl Lloyd George, and Earl Russell. So 2 descendants of Liberal Prime ministers and one who isn't.

    https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/lords-information-office/2023/candidate-notice-falkland.pdf

    Lord Falkland was originally elected as a Lib Dem, but left the Lib Dems in 2011 and became a Crossbencher.

    It is interesting that his replacement will be a Lib Dem rather than a Crossbencher.

    Candidate CVs are better than usual:

    Belhaven and Stenton, L. (Liberal Democrat)
    I support individual freedom, equality, social justice, environmental and agricultural sustainability/protection, a market economy with strong government regulation, active engagement with the EU, free trade without tariff barriers. Banning conversion therapy. 50 years’ business experience in insurance, outsourcing, speech recognition and AI
    technology. 20 years working alongside NHS services and procurement. Strong interest in improving healthcare and social care provision, trade liberalisation,
    sustainable immigration management & human rights, taxation reform, incentivising business productivity.

    Lloyd-George of Dwyfor, E. (Liberal Democrat)
    Since my early years I have had a keen and personal interest in politics, espoused with the traditions and beliefs of a liberal. My working life started aged 19 in shipping, finishing in political risk insurance. Should I be elected, I would undertake to be a regular attender
    and to devote my maximum time and efforts to the Liberal Democrats and to the business of the House.

    Russell, E. (Liberal Democrat)
    I have been active in the Liberal Democrat Party as a Parliamentary and London Assembly candidate, a London Borough Councillor and campaign manager.
    As a professional photographer specialising in political events and conferences, charities and landscapes my work is much used on social media and has been exhibited. I am committed to work in the House with my experience of local government and knowledge of environmental issues and international relations
    Remarkably small field for a Lib Dem working peer by-election.

    On the death of Lord Avebury (who, as Eric Lubbock, won the Orpington by-election but succeeded to the peerage later) the result was as follows:

    Viscount Thurso: 3
    Lord Calverley: 0
    Earl of Carlisle: 0
    Lord Kennett: 0
    Earl Lloyd-George: 0
    Earl Russell: 0
    Lord Somerleyton: 0
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I defer to your greater knowledge but I'm a bit surprised by the ordering of the first two. The Guardian has more than its fair share of poshos but plenty of non posh writers too (who are usually better) and the Telegraph/Spectator ecosystem seems incredibly posh from the outside. Perhaps there's some selectivity in who I read at the Guardian that is biasing my impression. I've not read anything by Toynbee in a long time, for instance, I find her a boring writer. I imagine she is probably popular among the paper's older core readership.
    Journalism in general seems like one of those careers where some family money and connections are very helpful for breaking into it. Wasn't really an option for a poor boy from the provinces like me! Finance is perhaps surprisingly meritocratic and so I've done well out of it, but there are certainly other careers that sound like they're probably more interesting.
    Everyone in journalism knows that the Guardian is the poshest. It’s not in dispute. The telegraph is second for sure (and the spectator hovers around there, to be fair)

    I am happy to be argued with on the also rans. But the gold and silver are not arguable

    The times is strangely egalitarian in comparison. Probably the influence of murdoch
    Fair enough. I don't read the Telegraph and I probably self-select towards the less posh bits of the Guardian, people like John Harris.
    My Guardian interaction tends to be with sport and football, where I think the posho bar is a bit lower generally.

    The Sun and Mirror journalists I've met have all seemed pretty posh to me, though there we get on to defining 'posh' (let's not).
    Most of the Express columnists went to Cambridge.
    I don't know what counts as posh these days - I've never been within 50 miles of Tuscany, but I do prefer McCain oven chips to own-brand ones so I probably qualify.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    If Labour lose this by election it would be the biggest choke by a team in red since Arsenal this season.

    Arsenals squad wasn’t strong enough to match predictable run in from city (41 points from 45?). A couple of injuries and loss of form for Partey, and Saka very jaded, and they are a different side way off their best. Jesus and Zinchenko and Viera been terrible buys. Zinchenko can’t defend. Arsenal now saddled with those 3 on their books so may not even make top four next season.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    Indy below Express, Mirror and Sun?
    FT below Times?
    Yes. That’s my honest opinion. And I know many many journalists

    The FT employs more geeky finance and tech nerds (of necessity) and they are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds than the social butterflies who interned at the Times etc

    It’s still fairly posh. As are all newspapers these days. In my life I’ve watched journalism become a job for posher and posher people. It’s tragic

    Unpaid internships should be banned. If Starmer does that I will applaud him loudly. They are meant to be illegal now but newspapers get round it
    The direction of The Star’s travel lately puts me in mind more of some strange offspring of Private Eye and Viz. Not posh but certainly knowing and ironic.
    Boris and Covid have revitalised The Star - it is the unquestioned champ of the funny front page these days; the other red tops are nowhere near.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,883
    DougSeal said:

    Apropos only of the Hamster Horror Story on the last thread, the Wife and I used to have ferrets. They didn’t half smell and were occasionally nippy but they were extremely affectionate of one another and ourselves. I don’t understand the bad press they get.

    Their sack related activities have cast a dark shadow.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Russia has had one day to crow about Bakhmut and then...

    By nightfall the Free russia Legion will have taken more territory than Wagner in the last 3 months.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1660643051331543040
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,336
    Jeremy Clarke, the writer of the Spectator's Low Life column, has sadly died.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-tribute-to-jeremy-clarke-the-spectators-low-life-columnist/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,881
    Leon said:

    Poshness of newspapers - their writers and hacks - by order of descent. From posh to prole


    Guardian (Observer)
    Telegraph
    Times
    FT
    Mail
    Sun
    Mirror
    Express
    Indy
    Star

    I have a very good friend who used to be the Sun's racing correspondent. I think he'd rate it as more posh than the Mall.
This discussion has been closed.