I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
My daughter is getting married and I have to do the father of the bride speech. Probably not gushing enough but tempting all the same. Hmmm
Congratulations.
I’m happy to help you write the speech.
So long as the groom isn’t a stepson, or Turkish, should be fine.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
Fair enough and he has had a high profile political career doing some big Cabinet posts and understandable if he wants to spend more time with his family. Though I expect he has also become concerned about the increasing narrowness of his majority and growing quantity of LD Focus leaflets and barcharts too which I am sure played a role in not standing again in his constituency next time
He knows he’s going to lose, and doesn’t want a were-you-up-for-Raab moment.
He is one of quite a few and frankly will not be missed
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
I think that’s unfair of the tele to publish that, particularly the last bit, identifying/naming his kids.
Not cricket.
When I was at school a long while ago, the Telegraph published a story following a sad case of a mother killing her young child whilst suffering from post-natal depression, which provided a summary of similar cases over the previous 15 or so years.
One was a veterinary nurse found not guilty by reason of insanity, who'd recovered and found a quiet, low profile job as a lab assistant at my school. Named, with a clearly recognisable photograph, and grim details of the case.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
Strictly speaking it was a national political choice to restrict the numbers of non EU immigrants as this wasn't an EU competence. Nevertheless much higher immigration is the clear consequence of Brexit even if there's no causation. It's worth understanding the implications given there are no Brexit benefits, but we aren't going to rejoin either.
This new immigration, largely from India is mostly well educated, quite well paid and going into the cities. It won't do anything for levelling up in already deprived areas but it could help boost the economies of cities, which will become more ethnically diverse and whose youngish populations voted Remain anyway.
The Indians are now coming. That’s the next big immigration thing. There’s a billion brilliant reasons why Indians are coming. An Indian Primeminster who lived in a Southampton chemist and rose up to great thingsis probably so exciting to Indians and an inspiration, we have historic ties, maybe they want to get away from Mohdi, they know we love curry. This little period will come to be known as The Indians excitedly came period.
Meanwhile, in the latest immigration figures, It’s true in my mind, Hongkongers have so quickly gone from living in a democracy to a very unhappy fascists state. Yes, they are coming here because of ties between UK and Hongkong. My mum doesn’t have much to do with them, probably because she looks in the mirror and sees an English person with English names (it wasmy dads idea I was called Jade after girl on moon) and she buys 100% into Daily Mail “the countries full” and all the problems the countries now full causes, can’t get doctor or dentist or operation or housing or decent jobs and too much building on green belt and many cars and they don’t have driving test or insurance etc etc I have heard. But I know enough that hongkongers are struggling here. Struggling with housing, struggling with way of life. Will many go back to HongKong? Maybe not. But will they go somewhere else, I think maybe if they stay unhappy and don’t settle. People my Dad done business with in HongKong back in nineties arn’t in HongKong anymore, but didn’t come all the way here.
It’s interesting how the Tories will deal with a release of high immigration data this week. They could drip feed it to lessen the impact. They could cause a distraction, the best of which being a plane taking off to Rwanda. That would ensure the Tory press hail the government not bury them. I expect a plane to take off to Rwanda same day.
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
And yet most of the rest of Europe manages to make it work very successfully. Strange that. Belgium is at about 80% of all new properties being self builds. That does not necessarily mean as my father did doing it with your own hands but it does mean taking it out of the hands of the large developers and doing as they do in Holland which is to sell plots complete with services and allow people to commission local builders to do the construction.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week
Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU
Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.
Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
Fair enough and he has had a high profile political career doing some big Cabinet posts and understandable if he wants to spend more time with his family. Though I expect he has also become concerned about the increasing narrowness of his majority and growing quantity of LD Focus leaflets and barcharts too which I am sure played a role in not standing again in his constituency next time
He knows he’s going to lose, and doesn’t want a were-you-up-for-Raab moment.
Will have to be a were-you-up-for Boris, Hunt, IDS or Redwood moment instead most likely then
I thought I would get retaliation in first before anyone posts immigration into UK is crap when I’m busy tomorrow. Despite ugly history of “rivers of blood” speech and that, we are probably closer to India now than any time since Lady Mountbatten was bonking Primeminster Nehru.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
That’s a funny shaped sausage to use for a roll in the hay
Effective as contraception when held between the knees.
PS Does StillWaters know that Booker Prize winning, now totally forgotten, nonconformist organist novelist Stanley Middleton wrote a novel called Still Waters. I read it in about 1976.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week
Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU
Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.
Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
Not seen any kangaroos yet though
What’s the likelihood of talented SNP politicians, ambitious for a political career, defecting to Labour in the coming years?
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
Or become more Scottish and die before we retire. Trendsetters, as always.
I am on the state pension and still breathing out and in and working so that sounds like absolute bollocks from a Fcukwit. Average age overall in Scotland is not that far behind England, you get a few extra months in a home pissing your pants at best.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
Strictly speaking it was a national political choice to restrict the numbers of non EU immigrants as this wasn't an EU competence. Nevertheless much higher immigration is the clear consequence of Brexit even if there's no causation. It's worth understanding the implications given there are no Brexit benefits, but we aren't going to rejoin either.
This new immigration, largely from India is mostly well educated, quite well paid and going into the cities. It won't do anything for levelling up in already deprived areas but it could help boost the economies of cities, which will become more ethnically diverse and whose youngish populations voted Remain anyway.
The Indians are now coming.
Great! I hate bloody cricket! And Bollywood! And I suppose we'll all have to start saying "veedeo" instead of "video".
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
Strictly speaking it was a national political choice to restrict the numbers of non EU immigrants as this wasn't an EU competence. Nevertheless much higher immigration is the clear consequence of Brexit even if there's no causation. It's worth understanding the implications given there are no Brexit benefits, but we aren't going to rejoin either.
This new immigration, largely from India is mostly well educated, quite well paid and going into the cities. It won't do anything for levelling up in already deprived areas but it could help boost the economies of cities, which will become more ethnically diverse and whose youngish populations voted Remain anyway.
The Indians are now coming. That’s the next big immigration thing. There’s a billion brilliant reasons why Indians are coming. An Indian Primeminster who lived in a Southampton chemist and rose up to great thingsis probably so exciting to Indians and an inspiration, we have historic ties, maybe they want to get away from Mohdi, they know we love curry. This little period will come to be known as The Indians excitedly came period.
Meanwhile, in the latest immigration figures, It’s true in my mind, Hongkongers have so quickly gone from living in a democracy to a very unhappy fascists state. Yes, they are coming here because of ties between UK and Hongkong. My mum doesn’t have much to do with them, probably because she looks in the mirror and sees an English person with English names (it wasmy dads idea I was called Jade after girl on moon) and she buys 100% into Daily Mail “the countries full” and all the problems the countries now full causes, can’t get doctor or dentist or operation or housing or decent jobs and too much building on green belt and many cars and they don’t have driving test or insurance etc etc I have heard. But I know enough that hongkongers are struggling here. Struggling with housing, struggling with way of life. Will many go back to HongKong? Maybe not. But will they go somewhere else, I think maybe if they stay unhappy and don’t settle. People my Dad done business with in HongKong back in nineties arn’t in HongKong anymore, but didn’t come all the way here.
It’s interesting how the Tories will deal with a release of high immigration data this week. They could drip feed it to lessen the impact. They could cause a distraction, the best of which being a plane taking off to Rwanda. That would ensure the Tory press hail the government not bury them. I expect a plane to take off to Rwanda same day.
Sky indicates that the biggest visa immigration is for the NHS and care sector and working as a points based system should
I am very relaxed about these figures even if Braverman is not
'The husband of murdered MP Jo Cox has accused a film that portrays an attempt to kill former prime minister Boris Johnson of “normalising violence” against politicians.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
Fair enough and he has had a high profile political career doing some big Cabinet posts and understandable if he wants to spend more time with his family. Though I expect he has also become concerned about the increasing narrowness of his majority and growing quantity of LD Focus leaflets and barcharts too which I am sure played a role in not standing again in his constituency next time
He knows he’s going to lose, and doesn’t want a were-you-up-for-Raab moment.
Will have to be a were-you-up-for Boris, Hunt, IDS or Redwood moment instead most likely then
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
On a point of order I do not see a GE in May - June 24
Expect he will go to the Lords where most failed politicians end up
Until Starmer abolishes it, I don't think Baroness Thatcher was exactly a failed politician however now was Lord Trimble or Lord Mandelson whatever you think of them
Expect he will go to the Lords where most failed politicians end up
Until Starmer abolishes it, I don't think Baroness Thatcher was exactly a failed politician however now was Lord Trimble or Lord Mandelson whatever you think of them
I thought I would get retaliation in first before anyone posts immigration into UK is crap when I’m busy tomorrow. Despite ugly history of “rivers of blood” speech and that, we are probably closer to India now than any time since Lady Mountbatten was bonking Primeminster Nehru.
“Tell me, how does your husband have such great fashion sense?” “He sure doesn’t spend all that time in the closet for nothing.”
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
On a point of order I do not see a GE in May - June 24
I do. There’s many reasons now it’s pointing to 2nd May next year same day as the locals.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
Fair enough and he has had a high profile political career doing some big Cabinet posts and understandable if he wants to spend more time with his family. Though I expect he has also become concerned about the increasing narrowness of his majority and growing quantity of LD Focus leaflets and barcharts too which I am sure played a role in not standing again in his constituency next time
He knows he’s going to lose, and doesn’t want a were-you-up-for-Raab moment.
Will have to be a were-you-up-for Boris, Hunt, IDS or Redwood moment instead most likely then
That will be “were you up for Penny?” Exactly the same swing that done for leadership hopeful Portillo.
Global population decline will be a challenge for generations after us, but it looks inevitable in the medium-term. Fertility rates trending down everywhere and once that is baked in, it's just a matter of waiting.
But there are just so many people on earth that it won't feel like a death spiral for quite some time. Major cities will continue to grow through internal and international migration. Technology advances will help fill labour gaps.
At some point the political settlement will shift to being very pro-fertility. Free childcare for all. Free egg/sperm freezing and IVF etc. Make housing more affordable. Improve work life balance for the primary caregiver.
We're not there yet because we can continue to use migration to fill the gaps. And some countries will fail to do the above and just decline. But, inevitably, those countries that have pro-fertility policies will grow on a relative basis and so they will become mainstream.
Planning for demographics is very sensible. Panicking about the world depopulating decades/centuries into the future is not.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
On a point of order I do not see a GE in May - June 24
I do. There’s many reasons now it’s pointing to 2nd May next year same day as the locals.
One of PM Starmer's first jobs in July will then be to hold a Downing Street reception for the Euro 2024 winners.
Who will that be, I ask, not expecting to agree with the answer.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
On a point of order I do not see a GE in May - June 24
I do. There’s many reasons now it’s pointing to 2nd May next year same day as the locals.
One of PM Starmer's first jobs in July will then be to hold a Downing Street reception for the Euro 2024 winners.
Who will that be, I ask, not expecting to agree with the answer.
Just discovered what a hassle being a landlord is. Asked for the rent the other night and she said " I don't think I can afford it." I suggested we could make an arrangement, so she began to unbutton her blouse. I thought, yes and took my keks off. That was the end of Monopoly.
'@danwootton The entire Suella speeding story is a put up and a farce, engineered by the snivel service blob and aided and abetted by the MSM to bring down another Brexiteer trying to deliver. Sunak must finally understand that and back his Home Secretary.' https://twitter.com/danwootton/status/1660742913775620108?s=20
'@danwootton The entire Suella speeding story is a put up and a farce, engineered by the snivel service blob and aided and abetted by the MSM to bring down another Brexiteer trying to deliver. Sunak must finally understand that and back his Home Secretary.' https://twitter.com/danwootton/status/1660742913775620108?s=20
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
And yet most of the rest of Europe manages to make it work very successfully. Strange that. Belgium is at about 80% of all new properties being self builds. That does not necessarily mean as my father did doing it with your own hands but it does mean taking it out of the hands of the large developers and doing as they do in Holland which is to sell plots complete with services and allow people to commission local builders to do the construction.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
To be fair, the Belgians need to self build so they can put in a really secure basement where they can keep their... you know who's...
Here's a challenge for rcs1000: Explain the recoveries in the US TFR, post WW II, notably the one peaking n 2006-2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States (I am not a demgrapher, but I don't know of any Western nation that has had that kind of recovery since 2000.)
(In my own opinion, part of the explanation is morale. Another part is densification. I don't think it's an accident that the TFR is highest in, for example the Okinawa prefect in Japan, or lowest in Seolu, in Korea.)
I'm going off vibes here not actual numbers (density is a little bit tricky to capture) but Okinawa felt more dense than most of Japan. There's a lot of lovely empty coastline in the north but that's not where people live, they live in a few cities in the south that are constrained by the sea, the mountains and the US bases.
Hokkaido feels much more like there are places you can build out to, but that has really low fertility.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
Fair enough and he has had a high profile political career doing some big Cabinet posts and understandable if he wants to spend more time with his family. Though I expect he has also become concerned about the increasing narrowness of his majority and growing quantity of LD Focus leaflets and barcharts too which I am sure played a role in not standing again in his constituency next time
He knows he’s going to lose, and doesn’t want a were-you-up-for-Raab moment.
Will have to be a were-you-up-for Boris, Hunt, IDS or Redwood moment instead most likely then
That will be “were you up for Penny?” Exactly the same swing that done for leadership hopeful Portillo.
Penny will hold on comfortably and then be a leadership contender again
Russian talking heads are now talking about helping terrorists attack London:
Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.
Russian talking heads are now talking about helping terrorists attack London:
Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.
Russian talking heads are now talking about helping terrorists attack London:
Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.
One was, the other said even nuking London in response to the long range missiles supplied to Ukraine would be better otherwise helping terrorists attack Western cities sinks to the level of the dirtbag West. At least the final speaker still stressed the importance of international law and Russia's role on the UN Security Council
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
And yet most of the rest of Europe manages to make it work very successfully. Strange that. Belgium is at about 80% of all new properties being self builds. That does not necessarily mean as my father did doing it with your own hands but it does mean taking it out of the hands of the large developers and doing as they do in Holland which is to sell plots complete with services and allow people to commission local builders to do the construction.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
Japan is kind of a mixture of those because aside from a few bulk-built housing estates, most people (not me *) contract with one of a few rival chains of "house-makers", who then subcontract the actual building to local builders. Depending on the house-maker the job of the local builders is often pretty simple, they just bolt together parts made in the house-maker's factory. So you generally see them tinkering around with earth and foundations for a few weeks, build a concrete base in which you can see a complete floor-plan of the house, then you come back a few days later and there's a house there.
* I have a kind of unique amazing builder who just does everything on the spot. My wife draws a little sketch, the builder points out any glaring problems with it like the fact that the stairs to the second floor are drawn in a place where there's no second floor so he'll have to increase the house a little bit, we gesture vaguely at approximately where we want the windows, and a few weeks later it's done.
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
And yet most of the rest of Europe manages to make it work very successfully. Strange that. Belgium is at about 80% of all new properties being self builds. That does not necessarily mean as my father did doing it with your own hands but it does mean taking it out of the hands of the large developers and doing as they do in Holland which is to sell plots complete with services and allow people to commission local builders to do the construction.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
Japan is kind of a mixture of those because aside from a few bulk-built housing estates, most people (not me *) contract with one of a few rival chains of "house-makers", who then subcontract the actual building to local builders. Depending on the house-maker the job of the local builders is often pretty simple, they just bolt together parts made in the house-maker's factory. So you generally see them tinkering around with earth and foundations for a few weeks, build a concrete base in which you can see a complete floor-plan of the house, then you come back a few days later and there's a house there.
* I have a kind of unique amazing builder who just does everything on the spot. My wife draws a little sketch, the builder points out any glaring problems with it like the fact that the stairs to the second floor are drawn in a place where there's no second floor so he'll have to increase the house a little bit, we gesture vaguely at approximately where we want the windows, and a few weeks later it's done.
It does appear that the UK has managed to create a uniquely shit planning-housebuilding-media-industrial complex.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
I think that’s unfair of the tele to publish that, particularly the last bit, identifying/naming his kids.
Not cricket.
When I was at school a long while ago, the Telegraph published a story following a sad case of a mother killing her young child whilst suffering from post-natal depression, which provided a summary of similar cases over the previous 15 or so years.
One was a veterinary nurse found not guilty by reason of insanity, who'd recovered and found a quiet, low profile job as a lab assistant at my school. Named, with a clearly recognisable photograph, and grim details of the case.
It's never just been tabloids.
At some point, surely, we hit resistance?
Or do we just sleepwalk into a politics where everyone knows everything about everyone?
The mental health consequences of being *someone important* for whatever reason are so severe, why would anyone, ever, want to be notable or important?
edmundintokyo - The largest city in the Okinawa prefecture is the capital, Naha, with about 317,000 people. After that the largest is about 138,000, and there are just two more cities above 100,000.
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
sort of on topic: Margaret Ferrier's behavior reminds me of Rand Paul's. (Among other things, he went to work out in the Senate gym, knowing that he might have COVID.)
edmundintokyo - The largest city in the Okinawa prefecture is the capital, Naha, with about 317,000 people. After that the largest is about 138,000, and there are just two more cities above 100,000.
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
Despite?
Some is age related, of course. Younger people have more sex, and Japan has many fewer younger people (and more old people) than other countries.
edmundintokyo - The largest city in the Okinawa prefecture is the capital, Naha, with about 317,000 people. After that the largest is about 138,000, and there are just two more cities above 100,000.
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
Despite?
I think the order is still correct. They seem to have more kids where it's hotter. It's also true that they have more kids outside big cities, but it's hard to say what the cause-and-effect there is, because the main reason *not* to live in a big city with lots of jobs is if you have kids and you want some space.
The thing with Okinawa is that Naha and surroundings are squeezed into a fairly teensy area, so it's pretty dense despite the small population. I'd try to find numbers for this but it's complicated to put a number to density because a lot ends up depending on where the administrative boundaries are. This is especially true in Japan because a city will often include vast, uninhabitable mountains. In Okinawa's case there are also vast, uninhabitable US air bases.
The other weird thing about Okinawa is that there are no trains. Normally a Japanese city will have a load of high rise stuff around the main stations, high-ish stuff around the intermediate stations, then lots of low-to-middling-rise sprawl and apartment buildings where most people live. Okinawa doesn't have stations, so it doesn't really have the high-rise part, but the residential sprawl feels just as built-up as the equivalent in a large city, and it doesn't have loads of little parks everywhere like Tokyo does either.
edmundintokyo - The largest city in the Okinawa prefecture is the capital, Naha, with about 317,000 people. After that the largest is about 138,000, and there are just two more cities above 100,000.
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
Despite?
I think the order is still correct. They seem to have more kids where it's hotter. It's also true that they have more kids outside big cities, but it's hard to say what the cause-and-effect there is, because the main reason *not* to live in a big city with lots of jobs is if you have kids and you want some space.
The thing with Okinawa is that Naha and surroundings are squeezed into a fairly teensy area, so it's pretty dense despite the small population. I'd try to find numbers for this but it's complicated to put a number to density because a lot ends up depending on where the administrative boundaries are. This is especially true in Japan because a city will often include vast, uninhabitable mountains. In Okinawa's case there are also vast, uninhabitable US air bases.
The other weird thing about Okinawa is that there are no trains. Normally a Japanese city will have a load of high rise stuff around the main stations, high-ish stuff around the intermediate stations, then lots of low-to-middling-rise sprawl and apartment buildings where most people live. Okinawa doesn't have stations, so it doesn't really have the high-rise part, but the residential sprawl feels just as built-up as the equivalent in a large city, and it doesn't have loads of little parks everywhere like Tokyo does either.
edmundintokyo - The largest city in the Okinawa prefecture is the capital, Naha, with about 317,000 people. After that the largest is about 138,000, and there are just two more cities above 100,000.
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
Despite?
I think the order is still correct. They seem to have more kids where it's hotter. It's also true that they have more kids outside big cities, but it's hard to say what the cause-and-effect there is, because the main reason *not* to live in a big city with lots of jobs is if you have kids and you want some space.
The thing with Okinawa is that Naha and surroundings are squeezed into a fairly teensy area, so it's pretty dense despite the small population. I'd try to find numbers for this but it's complicated to put a number to density because a lot ends up depending on where the administrative boundaries are. This is especially true in Japan because a city will often include vast, uninhabitable mountains. In Okinawa's case there are also vast, uninhabitable US air bases.
The other weird thing about Okinawa is that there are no trains. Normally a Japanese city will have a load of high rise stuff around the main stations, high-ish stuff around the intermediate stations, then lots of low-to-middling-rise sprawl and apartment buildings where most people live. Okinawa doesn't have stations, so it doesn't really have the high-rise part, but the residential sprawl feels just as built-up as the equivalent in a large city, and it doesn't have loads of little parks everywhere like Tokyo does either.
How long have you been living in Japan IYDMMA?
25 years or so. I've only been going to Okinawa regularly for the last few years, because I bought a house surrounded by cedar trees and I get hayfever so I hide out in an AirBNB down there during the pollen season.
"TikToker who entered stranger’s home defends videos amid calls for his arrest Exclusive: ‘I’m a Black male doing these things and that’s why there’s such an uproar on the internet’"
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
You put that on the packet and it'll sell millions... 😀
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
We should embrace and adapt to falling birthrates (and being humans, we surely will).
In the long-term a dramatically smaller global population would be great news for the planet. We should no longer assume growth is inevitable*, or even desirable. There's no reason why we cannot continue to develop better long-term health prospects through better health care. AI and robotics can be a help.
*For years we have used GDP per capita as a measure of success but are we any happier as a nation than we were 50 years ago when GDP per capita was half what it is today?
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
With a year or so still to go to the next GE, we're already up to 44 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 who won't be standing as Conservatives at the next GE in their current or successor seat. A relatively high number at this stage, which could dilute the incumbency bonus a tad, with many of those seats being in play based on current polling.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection) 3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement 1 expelled then defected to Reclaim 1 defected to Labour 2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes 1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
On a point of order I do not see a GE in May - June 24
I do. There’s many reasons now it’s pointing to 2nd May next year same day as the locals.
One of PM Starmer's first jobs in July will then be to hold a Downing Street reception for the Euro 2024 winners.
Who will that be, I ask, not expecting to agree with the answer.
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
And yet most of the rest of Europe manages to make it work very successfully. Strange that. Belgium is at about 80% of all new properties being self builds. That does not necessarily mean as my father did doing it with your own hands but it does mean taking it out of the hands of the large developers and doing as they do in Holland which is to sell plots complete with services and allow people to commission local builders to do the construction.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
To be fair, the Belgians need to self build so they can put in a really secure basement where they can keep their... you know who's...
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
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One was a veterinary nurse found not guilty by reason of insanity, who'd recovered and found a quiet, low profile job as a lab assistant at my school. Named, with a clearly recognisable photograph, and grim details of the case.
It's never just been tabloids.
Meanwhile, in the latest immigration figures, It’s true in my mind, Hongkongers have so quickly gone from living in a democracy to a very unhappy fascists state. Yes, they are coming here because of ties between UK and Hongkong. My mum doesn’t have much to do with them, probably because she looks in the mirror and sees an English person with English names (it wasmy dads idea I was called Jade after girl on moon) and she buys 100% into Daily Mail “the countries full” and all the problems the countries now full causes, can’t get doctor or dentist or operation or housing or decent jobs and too much building on green belt and many cars and they don’t have driving test or insurance etc etc I have heard. But I know enough that hongkongers are struggling here. Struggling with housing, struggling with way of life. Will many go back to HongKong? Maybe not. But will they go somewhere else, I think maybe if they stay unhappy and don’t settle. People my Dad done business with in HongKong back in nineties arn’t in HongKong anymore, but didn’t come all the way here.
It’s interesting how the Tories will deal with a release of high immigration data this week. They could drip feed it to lessen the impact. They could cause a distraction, the best of which being a plane taking off to Rwanda. That would ensure the Tory press hail the government not bury them. I expect a plane to take off to Rwanda same day.
Importantly it puts a major crimp on land banking and, on the continent at least, gets houses built and people into them a lot faster.
36 sitting still as Conservatives, announced retirement (one after deselection)
3 lost whip or expelled and now sitting as Independents, announced retirement
1 expelled then defected to Reclaim
1 defected to Labour
2 deselected for their successor seat following boundary changes
1 deselected but with a full membership ballot pending
https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-raab-to-stand-down-as-mp-at-next-general-election-12887230
I am very relaxed about these figures even if Braverman is not
Killing Boris Johnson, which premieres at Cannes Film Festival this month, follows a main character who takes a gun to a primary school being visited by Mr Johnson after it was revealed parties were being held at Downing Street during lockdown.'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brendan-cox-killing-boris-johnson-film-b2342880.html
“He sure doesn’t spend all that time in the closet for nothing.”
But there are just so many people on earth that it won't feel like a death spiral for quite some time. Major cities will continue to grow through internal and international migration. Technology advances will help fill labour gaps.
At some point the political settlement will shift to being very pro-fertility. Free childcare for all. Free egg/sperm freezing and IVF etc. Make housing more affordable. Improve work life balance for the primary caregiver.
We're not there yet because we can continue to use migration to fill the gaps. And some countries will fail to do the above and just decline. But, inevitably, those countries that have pro-fertility policies will grow on a relative basis and so they will become mainstream.
Planning for demographics is very sensible. Panicking about the world depopulating decades/centuries into the future is not.
Asked for the rent the other night and she said " I don't think I can afford it."
I suggested we could make an arrangement, so she began to unbutton her blouse.
I thought, yes and took my keks off.
That was the end of Monopoly.
The entire Suella speeding story is a put up and a farce, engineered by the snivel service blob and aided and abetted by the MSM to bring down another Brexiteer trying to deliver.
Sunak must finally understand that and back his Home Secretary.'
https://twitter.com/danwootton/status/1660742913775620108?s=20
Hokkaido feels much more like there are places you can build out to, but that has really low fertility.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1660763938928177153?s=20
Igor Shishkin counsels that they need to find England’s “enemies…who harbor a serious grudge against the British” who would want to “use a Javelin [missile] in London right now”.
https://twitter.com/vladaknowlton/status/1660772164780576769
Found him
* I have a kind of unique amazing builder who just does everything on the spot. My wife draws a little sketch, the builder points out any glaring problems with it like the fact that the stairs to the second floor are drawn in a place where there's no second floor so he'll have to increase the house a little bit, we gesture vaguely at approximately where we want the windows, and a few weeks later it's done.
Or do we just sleepwalk into a politics where everyone knows everything about everyone?
The mental health consequences of being *someone important* for whatever reason are so severe, why would anyone, ever, want to be notable or important?
I’m reminded of this;
https://youtu.be/64zy587C4Co
This is dated, but the order is probably still broadly correct: "Japan's TFR in 2012 was estimated at 1.41 children per woman, increasing slightly from 1.32 in the 2001–05 period. In 2012, the highest TFR was 1.90, in Okinawa, and the lowest was 1.09, in Tokyo."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan
From the same source, and possibly significant: "Many Japanese lead a sexless marriage. Japan has the lowest level of couples having sex at 45 times per year, well below the global average of 103 times. With reasons of "tired" and "bored with intercourse" usually given as an answer.[65] Despite this, Japan ranks as number two globally on the amount spent on pornography, after South Korea."
Despite?
The thing with Okinawa is that Naha and surroundings are squeezed into a fairly teensy area, so it's pretty dense despite the small population. I'd try to find numbers for this but it's complicated to put a number to density because a lot ends up depending on where the administrative boundaries are. This is especially true in Japan because a city will often include vast, uninhabitable mountains. In Okinawa's case there are also vast, uninhabitable US air bases.
The other weird thing about Okinawa is that there are no trains. Normally a Japanese city will have a load of high rise stuff around the main stations, high-ish stuff around the intermediate stations, then lots of low-to-middling-rise sprawl and apartment buildings where most people live. Okinawa doesn't have stations, so it doesn't really have the high-rise part, but the residential sprawl feels just as built-up as the equivalent in a large city, and it doesn't have loads of little parks everywhere like Tokyo does either.
🚨Big story coming tomorrow🚨
We might need another -gate
Exclusive: ‘I’m a Black male doing these things and that’s why there’s such an uproar on the internet’"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiktok-mizzy-stranger-video-home-b2343295.html
Diana? Of course we'll leave her alone. See pages 4, 5, 7, 12-15 and 18.