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LAB moves to an 86% betting chance to win a Rutherglen by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many organisations is it now?

    Parliament
    The Met
    Other police forces
    The London Fire Brigade
    Other fire brigades
    The Army
    The Navy
    The TSSA union
    The NHS

    And now - the Methodists: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/methodist-church-not-seen-as-safe-for-women-leaked-report-finds-qrc0jzz22

    If only there were politicians who took this seriously. If only .....

    Most of South Korea, too.

    Gender divide leads to fewer Koreans dating
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/281_351298.html
    ...A thirty-something office worker surnamed Han, who lives in Pangyo, southern Seoul, has not dated men for over five years because she does not believe she could ever find the right person in Korea.

    An increase in media reports about crimes targeting women evokes real fears in her everyday life of stalking, sexual assault and even femicide. Han said that men in her age group would always say, "'Not all men are like that," or cast blame on the female victims.

    Han added that dating is no longer a part of her pursuit of happiness after realizing that almost all men she meets and knows fail to understand the discrimination and fear women face in Korea.

    Lee Bo-young, 33, an office worker in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province who has also stopped dating men by choice for nearly three years, thinks looking for Korean men of her age who understand and support gender equality is like "looking for a unicorn."

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...

    ...According to a Gallup survey released May 11, over half of unmarried Korean men and women in their 20s and 30s find each other difficult to relate to. Only about one out of three unmarried respondents said they were in a relationship.

    Most men said they want to socialize with women (56 percent), whereas only 27 percent of women felt the same way and 41 percent said they have no desire to interact with men. The surveyed included both married and single people.
    "In South Korea, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman in her reproductive years — is now 0.78, according to figures released by the Korean government in February."

    NPR March 2023

    I know this will come across as Demented Woke Trans Neon Fascism, but have South Korean men considered a really radical strategy? Such as being nicer to women?
    It is the incel problem writ large.

    Korean women have adapted to the modern world rather faster than Korean men. Largely because life sucked for them previously.
    When your birth rate is that low, neither gender can claim to have “adapted”

    Korea is on the verge of extinction. Is that what Korean women want? I don’t think so
    The North Korean birth rate looks a lot healthier. Perhaps they’ll end up winning the Korean Cold War by default.
    It's still well below replacement levels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Article on the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act and the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act anyone?

    https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/WRDK9SCGI3YMEFPW93AA/full?target=10.1080/02606755.2023.2213530

    Some tremendous understatement relating to the non-justiciability clause in the latter.

    Eventually, the prorogation requested by Johnson was declared unlawful and quashed by the UK Supreme Court with the landmark Miller II verdict. The line of defence of the government in the Miller/Cherry case that prorogation is a parliamentary proceeding that cannot be impugned in a court as per the 1689 Bill of Rights was rejected. The interference of the judicial branch with the business conducted by the executive, arguably, prompted the introduction of the ouster clause in the DCPA
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many organisations is it now?

    Parliament
    The Met
    Other police forces
    The London Fire Brigade
    Other fire brigades
    The Army
    The Navy
    The TSSA union
    The NHS

    And now - the Methodists: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/methodist-church-not-seen-as-safe-for-women-leaked-report-finds-qrc0jzz22

    If only there were politicians who took this seriously. If only .....

    Most of South Korea, too.

    Gender divide leads to fewer Koreans dating
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/281_351298.html
    ...A thirty-something office worker surnamed Han, who lives in Pangyo, southern Seoul, has not dated men for over five years because she does not believe she could ever find the right person in Korea.

    An increase in media reports about crimes targeting women evokes real fears in her everyday life of stalking, sexual assault and even femicide. Han said that men in her age group would always say, "'Not all men are like that," or cast blame on the female victims.

    Han added that dating is no longer a part of her pursuit of happiness after realizing that almost all men she meets and knows fail to understand the discrimination and fear women face in Korea.

    Lee Bo-young, 33, an office worker in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province who has also stopped dating men by choice for nearly three years, thinks looking for Korean men of her age who understand and support gender equality is like "looking for a unicorn."

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...

    ...According to a Gallup survey released May 11, over half of unmarried Korean men and women in their 20s and 30s find each other difficult to relate to. Only about one out of three unmarried respondents said they were in a relationship.

    Most men said they want to socialize with women (56 percent), whereas only 27 percent of women felt the same way and 41 percent said they have no desire to interact with men. The surveyed included both married and single people.
    "In South Korea, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman in her reproductive years — is now 0.78, according to figures released by the Korean government in February."

    NPR March 2023

    I know this will come across as Demented Woke Trans Neon Fascism, but have South Korean men considered a really radical strategy? Such as being nicer to women?
    It is the incel problem writ large.

    Korean women have adapted to the modern world rather faster than Korean men. Largely because life sucked for them previously.
    When your birth rate is that low, neither gender can claim to have “adapted”

    Korea is on the verge of extinction. Is that what Korean women want? I don’t think so
    Most (almost all) of us think of our personal needs first, and the needs of our nation second.

    And having children - and looking after them properly - is a lot of work. Unless there's something in it for you personally, why should you shoulder the burden of the survival of your civilization?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    edited May 2023

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    Labour's position relies on them selling the notion that Sunak wants the NHS to be starved of funds.

    It won't be sellable on the doorsteps. People are sensible enough to know that Covid needs have warped the NHS budget all out of shape. RIshi Sunak can sell his position on the NHS more easily than spend-spend-spend Labour.
    You think "It's fine for us not to provide a working healthcare system because Labour is spend, spend spend" is more sellable on the doorstep than "we will provide the healthcare system the Conservatives are committed to but totally fail to deliver, and which we previously did" ?
    Starmer needs to speak to Drakeford whose Wales NHS is every bit as bad as England's and indeed in some cases far worse

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-65676411
    For sure, Starmer may not actually be able to deliver on his offer. But his offer is clever I think. We will deliver what the Conservatives are committed to and what we delivered before.

    The Conservatives don't have a response to this. They can't say, "actually we will start delivering what we are committed to". It's a version of "When did you stop beating your wife?"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    We're not rejoining the EU in your lifetime.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,961
    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    One thing I have trouble wrapping my head around even though the maths makes total sense, is just thow significant population decline can and might be, within my own lifetime, in many areas. Global populations have risen so massively in many areas, and still significantly in most areas, that outside of, IDK, Ireland and Russia, the idea of having the same population as 100 or 200 years ago just seems mind blowing.

    Of course, I have no children so I'm partly to blame here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    We're not rejoining the EU in your lifetime.
    I still, perhaps forlornly, hope we’ll Rejoin in mine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    If Brexit was a worthy end in itself - and not simply idealised forms of it - then the more Brexity Tories should not even be that upset about losing as a result of Brexit happening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,961
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    My point is not vote conservatives, but for those who want Tories not to defend their majority, that Starmer is making a mistake.

    He is doing it all over again this evening, on Channel 4 news - NHS will be better under us, BUT NO NEW MONEY.

    WTF? How can you defend this as sound politics?

    Look what happened to May when she said “there’s no magic money tree.”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    Labour's position relies on them selling the notion that Sunak wants the NHS to be starved of funds.

    It won't be sellable on the doorsteps. People are sensible enough to know that Covid needs have warped the NHS budget all out of shape. RIshi Sunak can sell his position on the NHS more easily than spend-spend-spend Labour.
    You think "It's fine for us not to provide a working healthcare system because Labour is spend, spend spend" is more sellable on the doorstep than "we will provide the healthcare system the Conservatives are committed to but totally fail to deliver, and which we previously did" ?
    Starmer needs to speak to Drakeford whose Wales NHS is every bit as bad as England's and indeed in some cases far worse

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-65676411
    For sure, Starmer may not actually be able to deliver on his offer. But his offer is clever I think. We will deliver what the Conservatives are committed to and what we delivered before.

    The Conservatives don't have a response to this. They can't say, "actually we will start delivering what we are committed to". It's a version of "When did you stop beating your wife?"
    Labour could actually deliver *less* than the Conservatives are now - as shown in Wales. Or massage the figures so they pretend they're delivering more, when in reality they are delivering Stafford levels of service.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    edited May 2023
    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many organisations is it now?

    Parliament
    The Met
    Other police forces
    The London Fire Brigade
    Other fire brigades
    The Army
    The Navy
    The TSSA union
    The NHS

    And now - the Methodists: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/methodist-church-not-seen-as-safe-for-women-leaked-report-finds-qrc0jzz22

    If only there were politicians who took this seriously. If only .....

    Most of South Korea, too.

    Gender divide leads to fewer Koreans dating
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/281_351298.html
    ...A thirty-something office worker surnamed Han, who lives in Pangyo, southern Seoul, has not dated men for over five years because she does not believe she could ever find the right person in Korea.

    An increase in media reports about crimes targeting women evokes real fears in her everyday life of stalking, sexual assault and even femicide. Han said that men in her age group would always say, "'Not all men are like that," or cast blame on the female victims.

    Han added that dating is no longer a part of her pursuit of happiness after realizing that almost all men she meets and knows fail to understand the discrimination and fear women face in Korea.

    Lee Bo-young, 33, an office worker in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province who has also stopped dating men by choice for nearly three years, thinks looking for Korean men of her age who understand and support gender equality is like "looking for a unicorn."

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...

    ...According to a Gallup survey released May 11, over half of unmarried Korean men and women in their 20s and 30s find each other difficult to relate to. Only about one out of three unmarried respondents said they were in a relationship.

    Most men said they want to socialize with women (56 percent), whereas only 27 percent of women felt the same way and 41 percent said they have no desire to interact with men. The surveyed included both married and single people.
    "In South Korea, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman in her reproductive years — is now 0.78, according to figures released by the Korean government in February."

    NPR March 2023

    I know this will come across as Demented Woke Trans Neon Fascism, but have South Korean men considered a really radical strategy? Such as being nicer to women?
    It is the incel problem writ large.

    Korean women have adapted to the modern world rather faster than Korean men. Largely because life sucked for them previously.
    When your birth rate is that low, neither gender can claim to have “adapted”

    Korea is on the verge of extinction. Is that what Korean women want? I don’t think so
    Most (almost all) of us think of our personal needs first, and the needs of our nation second.

    And having children - and looking after them properly - is a lot of work. Unless there's something in it for you personally, why should you shoulder the burden of the survival of your civilization?
    Do it for the motherland posters not really effective these days?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916
    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
    Come all ye incels and dress like Dr Jord, you’ll be procreating in no time.


  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    It is remarkable how completely absent Brexit is of any easily articulated benefits. You would expect something freely entered into would at least be 50/50 upside/downside, maybe more upside.

    Earthquakes, plagues, cancer and so on you would expect to be more downside, because those are things that happen to you and you would never choose to happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    Labour's position relies on them selling the notion that Sunak wants the NHS to be starved of funds.

    It won't be sellable on the doorsteps. People are sensible enough to know that Covid needs have warped the NHS budget all out of shape. RIshi Sunak can sell his position on the NHS more easily than spend-spend-spend Labour.
    You think "It's fine for us not to provide a working healthcare system because Labour is spend, spend spend" is more sellable on the doorstep than "we will provide the healthcare system the Conservatives are committed to but totally fail to deliver, and which we previously did" ?
    Starmer needs to speak to Drakeford whose Wales NHS is every bit as bad as England's and indeed in some cases far worse

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-65676411
    For sure, Starmer may not actually be able to deliver on his offer. But his offer is clever I think. We will deliver what the Conservatives are committed to and what we delivered before.

    The Conservatives don't have a response to this. They can't say, "actually we will start delivering what we are committed to". It's a version of "When did you stop beating your wife?"
    Labour could actually deliver *less* than the Conservatives are now - as shown in Wales. Or massage the figures so they pretend they're delivering more, when in reality they are delivering Stafford levels of service.
    If labour deliver the same as Drakeford in Wales the NHS will be going backwards
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
    Come all ye incels and dress like Dr Jord, you’ll be procreating in no time.


    Your provocations have gone too far this time!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    Damn, wildfire season underway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.

    It's simultaneously very funny and concerning. I'm particularly amused and concerned by the Russians allegedly having to evacuate a nuclear weapons store ten kilometres or so from where the RVC currently are...

    We need to knap a bigger dildo of consequences for Putin. Is Leon available?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    So you're saying Brexit is going to surprise on the upside?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    Labour's position relies on them selling the notion that Sunak wants the NHS to be starved of funds.

    It won't be sellable on the doorsteps. People are sensible enough to know that Covid needs have warped the NHS budget all out of shape. RIshi Sunak can sell his position on the NHS more easily than spend-spend-spend Labour.
    You think "It's fine for us not to provide a working healthcare system because Labour is spend, spend spend" is more sellable on the doorstep than "we will provide the healthcare system the Conservatives are committed to but totally fail to deliver, and which we previously did" ?
    Starmer needs to speak to Drakeford whose Wales NHS is every bit as bad as England's and indeed in some cases far worse

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-65676411
    For sure, Starmer may not actually be able to deliver on his offer. But his offer is clever I think. We will deliver what the Conservatives are committed to and what we delivered before.

    The Conservatives don't have a response to this. They can't say, "actually we will start delivering what we are committed to". It's a version of "When did you stop beating your wife?"
    Labour could actually deliver *less* than the Conservatives are now - as shown in Wales. Or massage the figures so they pretend they're delivering more, when in reality they are delivering Stafford levels of service.
    I don't think "Believe us, Labour will be even more derelict than we are." is a winning message for the Conservatives, particularly when Labour can say, "We weren't before"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Or echoing Blair: "Britain can and will be a great country again"

    http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=201
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    Roger has called it.

    There are some extra trading frictions from Brexit, and a lot of embarrassment from some internationalist types, but the idea it makes or breaks the nation is for the birds.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916

    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.

    It's simultaneously very funny and concerning. I'm particularly amused and concerned by the Russians allegedly having to evacuate a nuclear weapons store ten kilometres or so from where the RVC currently are...

    We need to knap a bigger dildo of consequences for Putin. Is Leon available?
    That's exactly it - funnt and concerning.

    I've been pretty consistent in saying that we didn't have to worry about nuclear escalation because Russia proper wasn't in play. These guys aren't about to march on Moscow, but it does up the ante somewhat and blur the boundaries, and it's when boundaries are blurred that you have the potential for misunderstanding and nuclear escalation.

    And yet, it's kinda hilarious.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    My point is not vote conservatives, but for those who want Tories not to defend their majority, that Starmer is making a mistake.

    He is doing it all over again this evening, on Channel 4 news - NHS will be better under us, BUT NO NEW MONEY.

    WTF? How can you defend this as sound politics?

    Look what happened to May when she said “there’s no magic money tree.”
    Sunak is saying, there is a magic money tree but I haven't shaken it yet?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    We're not rejoining the EU in your lifetime.
    My guess is we approach a limit which approximates closely to the Single Market and the EPU becomes the political forum through which our political issues are dealt with.

    Everyone will be happy. Everyone will wonder why it took so much aggro to get to somewhere we should have started at in the first place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The political coverage on the news today continues to be in the main all about Braverman with Labour weighing in big time.

    The consequence is that Starmer's big announcement on the NHS has been relegated well down the pecking order.

    A tactical mistake. I think Labour should have concentrated on the NHS, not Braverman. People want to hear about policies for government that will affect their lives, not listen to more petty political point scoring.

    I thought Labours offering was stronger before they were pressured into unnecessarily releasing detailed promises.

    Speeches like today with detailed commitments and policy in them is just plain dum for an opposition party. I wouldn’t go into such detail. Starmer crashed and burned today because after giving the Tory spin machine the policy detail they have been demanding, he was then asked how he was going to pay for it. He had a disastrous “magic money trees don’t exist” moment.

    Utterly unnecessary mistakes and approach from Labour in my opinion.
    Starmer committed to get back, when he can, to the same service levels as the ones the Conservatives inherited from Labour, that the previous Labour government met and which the Conservative government misses by a country mile.

    And you expect people.to back the Conservative position on this?

    My point is not vote conservatives, but for those who want Tories not to defend their majority, that Starmer is making a mistake.

    He is doing it all over again this evening, on Channel 4 news - NHS will be better under us, BUT NO NEW MONEY.

    WTF? How can you defend this as sound politics?

    Look what happened to May when she said “there’s no magic money tree.”
    Sunak is saying, there is a magic money tree but I haven't shaken it yet?
    There's no magic money tree until election time.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.
    I wouldn't worry. If history is any guide, there'll be a baby boom after the next world war.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972
    Aberdeenshire Council's leader ousted by the Tory group. *giggles*


  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,752

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.
    I wouldn't worry. If history is any guide, there'll be a baby boom after the next world war.
    That's...reassuring?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
    That only follows if you're talking about the number of (bed)rooms. If the average bedroom (etc.) is 20% smaller than in the 1970s, average space per person would have shrunk significantly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
    Come all ye incels and dress like Dr Jord, you’ll be procreating in no time.


    *We've told you before. There's no way you are ever going to be Doctor Who."
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840
    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
    New builds are genuinely crap. My own one bedroom flat (constructed in the early 2000s) might be described as bijou, but it's palatial compared with most of the rubbish that developers are churning out now. I distinctly recall looking at the details of some new build flats (for I occasionally have a nosy online at the property available locally) that were being put up elsewhere in town just before the Plague struck, and they were fully one third smaller even than mine whilst still being offered at an exorbitant price.

    Where building regulations are lax and homes are in desperately short supply, builders will stuff as many rabbit hutches onto a plot of land as they can, so as to maximise profit. This should come as a surprise to no-one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Well, child beating is pretty evil after all.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,691

    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.

    It's simultaneously very funny and concerning. I'm particularly amused and concerned by the Russians allegedly having to evacuate a nuclear weapons store ten kilometres or so from where the RVC currently are...

    We need to knap a bigger dildo of consequences for Putin. Is Leon available?
    Is this how we all die, bunch of mad separatists fucking around the motherland?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.
    I wouldn't worry. If history is any guide, there'll be a baby boom after the next world war.
    See, I knew it would all work out.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Ummm... child beating is good how, exactly?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
    New builds are genuinely crap. My own one bedroom flat (constructed in the early 2000s) might be described as bijou, but it's palatial compared with most of the rubbish that developers are churning out now. I distinctly recall looking at the details of some new build flats (for I occasionally have a nosy online at the property available locally) that were being put up elsewhere in town just before the Plague struck, and they were fully one third smaller even than mine whilst still being offered at an exorbitant price.

    Where building regulations are lax and homes are in desperately short supply, builders will stuff as many rabbit hutches onto a plot of land as they can, so as to maximise profit. This should come as a surprise to no-one.
    Saw one once where the rooms were compared by some detractors as equivalent to prison living. It got approved, remarkably, but unhappily so.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217
    edited May 2023

    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.

    It's simultaneously very funny and concerning. I'm particularly amused and concerned by the Russians allegedly having to evacuate a nuclear weapons store ten kilometres or so from where the RVC currently are...

    We need to knap a bigger dildo of consequences for Putin. Is Leon available?
    That's exactly it - funnt and concerning.

    I've been pretty consistent in saying that we didn't have to worry about nuclear escalation because Russia proper wasn't in play. These guys aren't about to march on Moscow, but it does up the ante somewhat and blur the boundaries, and it's when boundaries are blurred that you have the potential for misunderstanding and nuclear escalation.

    And yet, it's kinda hilarious.
    The Russian leadership seem to be describing it as terrorism, which is one of the two logical options for them, the other being to say the motherland is under threat from NATO. Terrorism means a. You get to scare the population and increase support for the war, b. You don’t have to pretend to observe the Geneva convention when you catch them, c. You don’t then escalate the war into nukes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Still possible until around 45 and especially if you have frozen your eggs in your 30s, though that is expensive
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,774
     
    Andy_JS said:

    Jeremy Clarke, the writer of the Spectator's Low Life column, has sadly died.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-tribute-to-jeremy-clarke-the-spectators-low-life-columnist/

    Very sad news indeed, though we all knew it was on the horizon. A brilliant writer of his quotidian ordinary life. I never skipped his lowlife column.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,871
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Ummm... child beating is good how, exactly?
    I think it was a typo for child bearing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,961
    Leon said:

    Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU

    I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place

    If Le Pen wins the next French presidential election it could dampen enthusiasm for rejoining the EU, even amongst Remainers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I think I'd rather have more kids.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,069
    In "Conservatives protecting our Freedom of Speech" news

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65675247

    Weapons expert cut from government event due to Twitter posts

    "A global expert on nerve agents, stood down from speaking at a government-backed conference, says he believes it is because he is outspoken on a range of issues including asylum policy.

    Dan Kaszeta was disinvited from Tuesday's conference after his social media content was vetted.

    The Ministry of Defence said checks on people speaking at government-organised events ensured a balanced discussion.

    But Mr Kaszeta insisted he would have only spoken on his area of expertise.
    "
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    The Russian Volunteer Corps are now claiming to have captured a BTR during the fighting in Belgorod Oblast. I hope they don't all get themselves killed.

    It's simultaneously very funny and concerning. I'm particularly amused and concerned by the Russians allegedly having to evacuate a nuclear weapons store ten kilometres or so from where the RVC currently are...

    We need to knap a bigger dildo of consequences for Putin. Is Leon available?
    That's exactly it - funny and concerning.

    I've been pretty consistent in saying that we didn't have to worry about nuclear escalation because Russia proper wasn't in play. These guys aren't about to march on Moscow, but it does up the ante somewhat and blur the boundaries, and it's when boundaries are blurred that you have the potential for misunderstanding and nuclear escalation.

    And yet, it's kinda hilarious.
    The Russian leadership seem to be describing it as terrorism, which is one of the two logical options for them, the other being to say the motherland is under threat from NATO. Terrorism means a. You get to scare the population and increase support for the war, b. You don’t have to pretend to observe the Geneva convention when you catch them, c. You don’t then escalate the war into nukes.
    Unless Biden were to pick up the phone to Zelenskyy, today, and tell him that the US would cease providing support if there are any further cross-border shenanigans like today, then I'd be surprised if this is the last such event. Then you have a potentially much messier conflict.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    edited May 2023
    I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America.
    His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”.
    And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.”
    He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Ummm... child beating is good how, exactly?
    I think it was a typo for child bearing.
    Yes, I got that... oh, never mind
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    OT. There's a website called 'vessel finder' which someone pointed out to me. It identifies boats and tracks them. This evening I took a walk around Villefranche harbour and came across a very large boat called Saristar. It's owner is French based in Monaco and London and his name is......and his business is ........

    If I was a thriller writer I wouldn't have to do much work.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    DavidL said:

    He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.

    I read a quote yesterday, something along the lines of "Some writers write stories (like Lee Child perhaps) and some writers write words (like Clive James perhaps)"

    He was happy to be in the second camp.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,840
    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
    New builds are genuinely crap. My own one bedroom flat (constructed in the early 2000s) might be described as bijou, but it's palatial compared with most of the rubbish that developers are churning out now. I distinctly recall looking at the details of some new build flats (for I occasionally have a nosy online at the property available locally) that were being put up elsewhere in town just before the Plague struck, and they were fully one third smaller even than mine whilst still being offered at an exorbitant price.

    Where building regulations are lax and homes are in desperately short supply, builders will stuff as many rabbit hutches onto a plot of land as they can, so as to maximise profit. This should come as a surprise to no-one.
    Saw one once where the rooms were compared by some detractors as equivalent to prison living. It got approved, remarkably, but unhappily so.
    It doesn't surprise me. Some of the things the greedy swine have been allowed to get away with when redeveloping defunct office buildings are astonishing, and not in a good way.
  • HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
    Nice that we've swapped a trade deal with a continent you can see from Dover (or Derry) with which we have loads of trade, with one about a twentieth the size, on the other side of the globe, that we have very little with. Sounds like a wise swap.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Roger said:

    OT. There's a website called 'vessel finder' which someone pointed out to me. It identifies boats and tracks them. This evening I took a walk around Villefranche harbour and came across a very large boat called Saristar. It's owner is French based in Monaco and London and his name is......and his business is ........

    If I was a thriller writer I wouldn't have to do much work.

    Russell Crowe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Leon said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Didn’t you vote for Brexit?
    That’s what regret means.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
    Nice that we've swapped a trade deal with a continent you can see from Dover (or Derry) with which we have loads of trade, with one about a twentieth the size, on the other side of the globe, that we have very little with. Sounds like a wise swap.
    As I've noted before, people have a tendency to talk as if we had a No Deal Brexit instead of a trade deal which is incredibly close by global standards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Leon said:

    The Four Seasons really doesn’t fuck around when it wants to impress

    That’s what Rudy thought, too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Ummm... child beating is good how, exactly?
    Autocorrect being weird - child bearing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
    Come all ye incels and dress like Dr Jord, you’ll be procreating in no time.


    "Flasher forgot to take his trousers off."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    It's a death spiral. I don't see any way out - all the incentives are pointed the wrong way.

    As you say, it's all about the rates of change in population growth/decline. People my age are adjusting to the housing market + women have loads more they want to do.

    The TFR is hard to think about too. The ONS keep revising their projections of it downwards, as their assumption that women are just delaying having children keeps being usurped by them simply not having them at all.

    If still just 10% went to university, fewer women had careers, housing (especially in London and the home counties) was cheaper, childcare more affordable and more under 45s in the UK were religious we would likely still have a higher TFR. A combination of all the above means the UK now has a below the global average and below replacement level TFR.

    Now not all the above is bad, women are able to have careers rather than just be stay at home mothers if they want and more have the chance to attend university but 50 to 100 years ago UK TFR was significantly higher than now
    I was fascinated by the anger, a few years back, directed at a senior NHS consultant, specialising in fertility, who stated that he was meeting more and ire women who had been, in effect, lied to about having children later in life.

    Apparently, pointing out the post 40 statistics on child beating was evil and misogynistic. .
    Ummm... child beating is good how, exactly?
    Autocorrect being weird - child bearing
    Well, they can be synonymous.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,476
    Leon said:

    OK, am getting Uriah Heep style groveling here

    “Is the river view good enough, Sir Leon? Would you like me to open the sun shade a little more?”

    Well, it’s just the sun going down over the fucking NILE. It’ll do




    Is Sir Leon rare or merely well done?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many organisations is it now?

    Parliament
    The Met
    Other police forces
    The London Fire Brigade
    Other fire brigades
    The Army
    The Navy
    The TSSA union
    The NHS

    And now - the Methodists: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/methodist-church-not-seen-as-safe-for-women-leaked-report-finds-qrc0jzz22

    If only there were politicians who took this seriously. If only .....

    Most of South Korea, too.

    Gender divide leads to fewer Koreans dating
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/281_351298.html
    ...A thirty-something office worker surnamed Han, who lives in Pangyo, southern Seoul, has not dated men for over five years because she does not believe she could ever find the right person in Korea.

    An increase in media reports about crimes targeting women evokes real fears in her everyday life of stalking, sexual assault and even femicide. Han said that men in her age group would always say, "'Not all men are like that," or cast blame on the female victims.

    Han added that dating is no longer a part of her pursuit of happiness after realizing that almost all men she meets and knows fail to understand the discrimination and fear women face in Korea.

    Lee Bo-young, 33, an office worker in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province who has also stopped dating men by choice for nearly three years, thinks looking for Korean men of her age who understand and support gender equality is like "looking for a unicorn."

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...

    ...According to a Gallup survey released May 11, over half of unmarried Korean men and women in their 20s and 30s find each other difficult to relate to. Only about one out of three unmarried respondents said they were in a relationship.

    Most men said they want to socialize with women (56 percent), whereas only 27 percent of women felt the same way and 41 percent said they have no desire to interact with men. The surveyed included both married and single people.
    "In South Korea, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman in her reproductive years — is now 0.78, according to figures released by the Korean government in February."

    NPR March 2023


    I know this will come across as Demented Woke Trans Neon Fascism, but have South Korean men considered a really radical strategy? Such as being nicer to women?
    Looks like maybe not. But I see above that a single 33 yo woman says this:

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...


    which is an either/or distinction which 4 billion years of evolution has, perhaps regrettably, rendered untenable.

    I have been married 45 years, and still think 'boy meets girl' is an unbeatable story.
    The operative word there is “only”.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972
    Had no idea Leon was German
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    How many organisations is it now?

    Parliament
    The Met
    Other police forces
    The London Fire Brigade
    Other fire brigades
    The Army
    The Navy
    The TSSA union
    The NHS

    And now - the Methodists: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/methodist-church-not-seen-as-safe-for-women-leaked-report-finds-qrc0jzz22

    If only there were politicians who took this seriously. If only .....

    Most of South Korea, too.

    Gender divide leads to fewer Koreans dating
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/05/281_351298.html
    ...A thirty-something office worker surnamed Han, who lives in Pangyo, southern Seoul, has not dated men for over five years because she does not believe she could ever find the right person in Korea.

    An increase in media reports about crimes targeting women evokes real fears in her everyday life of stalking, sexual assault and even femicide. Han said that men in her age group would always say, "'Not all men are like that," or cast blame on the female victims.

    Han added that dating is no longer a part of her pursuit of happiness after realizing that almost all men she meets and knows fail to understand the discrimination and fear women face in Korea.

    Lee Bo-young, 33, an office worker in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province who has also stopped dating men by choice for nearly three years, thinks looking for Korean men of her age who understand and support gender equality is like "looking for a unicorn."

    "I see them (men of my age group) as equal, just as human beings. But they only see me as a person of the opposite sex ― a potential partner for sexual intercourse or possibly a mother of their children. That makes me extremely uncomfortable," she said...

    ...According to a Gallup survey released May 11, over half of unmarried Korean men and women in their 20s and 30s find each other difficult to relate to. Only about one out of three unmarried respondents said they were in a relationship.

    Most men said they want to socialize with women (56 percent), whereas only 27 percent of women felt the same way and 41 percent said they have no desire to interact with men. The surveyed included both married and single people.
    "In South Korea, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman in her reproductive years — is now 0.78, according to figures released by the Korean government in February."

    NPR March 2023

    I know this will come across as Demented Woke Trans Neon Fascism, but have South Korean men considered a really radical strategy? Such as being nicer to women?
    It is the incel problem writ large.

    Korean women have adapted to the modern world rather faster than Korean men. Largely because life sucked for them previously.
    When your birth rate is that low, neither gender can claim to have “adapted”

    Korea is on the verge of extinction. Is that what Korean women want? I don’t think so
    Reread the story - it’s pretty clear what they want.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    edited May 2023
    This is how the GOP are going to steal the election next year.

    Absolute sister fucking fascists.

    Breaking: AZ state Sen. Sonny Borrelli sends letter to counties telling them they aren't allowed to use machines to count ballots.

    Falsely claims that a Senate resolution - not approved by voters/governor - gives the legislature the authority to make this decision.


    https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1660706293722800128
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
    Nice that we've swapped a trade deal with a continent you can see from Dover (or Derry) with which we have loads of trade, with one about a twentieth the size, on the other side of the globe, that we have very little with. Sounds like a wise swap.
    No we haven't. We have a trade deal with the EU. We have swapped nothing, just added.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    This is how the GOP are going to steal the election next year.

    Absolute sister fucking fascists.

    Breaking: AZ state Sen. Sonny Borrelli sends letter to counties telling them they aren't allowed to use machines to count ballots.

    Falsely claims that a Senate resolution - not approved by voters/governor - gives the legislature the authority to make this decision.


    https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1660706293722800128

    Except the Arizona Secretary of State who will verify the election is a Democrat
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_of_Arizona#:~:text=The secretary also serves as,holder is Democrat Adrian Fontes.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947
    edited May 2023
    carnforth said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kjh said:

    Bloody Brexit.

    I have spent weeks planning 2 cycle rides in France on the basis that I take the Eurostar and catch a train then from Paris as I have done before to my start point with an assembled bike (not boxed). Consequently I didn't bother with the Eurostar bit until the end. And as I finalise weeks of work I read this from Eurostar:

    "Border restrictions following Brexit have added to the complications for the international train service which have prevented the carriage of non-boxed bikes. Currently fully assembled bikes cannot be carried on Eurostar for security reasons, however the train operator is looking to find a solution which will allow their carriage again."

    Bloody, bloody, bloody Brexit.

    What security reasons, that a boxed bike can't also have?

    That is really weird. I genuinely can't understand that. I can't be some obscure rule about transit of assembled bikes either cos you can get on a ferry with one.

    If it was 'we don't have space' or something, I'd still be annoyed but at least there'd be some logic to it.
    I do wonder whether Eurostar have ever wanted the hassle of carrying bicycles and Brexit is simply a handy smokescreen for a decision that has been taken for other reasons. They say Brexit in one sentence and security in the other, which is a bit weird.

    If they simply said they weren't allowing them anymore then the cycling lobby would be on to them pretty sharpish. Say "Brexit" and instead everyone says either, "bloody Brexit," or, "bloody French," and leaves them alone.
    There's a detailed discussion here:

    https://www.cyclinguk.org/article/eurostar-re-opens-cycle-carriage-service

    Apparently you can now do it to Paris, but not yet other destinations as of Feb 2023.

    It says it stopped due to coronavirus, and when it restarted, the rules were different. It says the situation is due to improve soon.

    It also mentions Brexit in passing, though with no extra details. Clear as mud.
    No you can't. You can only do it if you dismantle your bike and box it up which is practically impossible if you are touring on your bike only with no help. Read my bit above which is also in the link you posted.

    "Border restrictions following Brexit have added to the complications for the international train service which have prevented the carriage of non-boxed bikes."

    There is a nice (but bonkers) service provided by Le Shuttle mentioned in the same link which I looked up as an alternative. They will put your bike and you on a van at Folkestone and take it off at Calais using the shuttle. Only £35 which is a bargain. It is bonkers because all the van does is go back and forth on the shuttle rolling off each end for a few hundred metres. Honestly this is pathetic. Anyway can't do that because no trains arrive in Folkestone in time for the pick up and then the journey the french end goes from 2 hours to 5 hours. To achieve what would be half a days travel each end becomes 2 days travel each end.

    Train, ferry, train before even starting my trip from Paris also turns it into 1.5 days to and from my start and end points whereas before it was half a day.

    I'm seething. How on earth do we go so far backwards.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,034

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Jordan Peterson was saying the same sort of thing recently, about depopulation.
    Come all ye incels and dress like Dr Jord, you’ll be procreating in no time.


    "Flasher forgot to take his trousers off."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y0IqAeuuuY

    "The day I went in with the axe, wasn't the same day I made the threatening gestures"
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,034
    DavidL said:

    I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America.
    His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”.
    And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.”
    He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.

    Ballard could, certainly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    Short of a miracle it'll kill the Tory Party for years. Maybe forever. The Tory Party after the next election will be seen s the Brexit Party and nothing else. I've just seen Rees-Mogg speaking up for Braverman. Do the Tories have any idea how ridiculous this anachronism looks?
    You do not seem to be able to acknowledge that the world is changing and while a good relationship with the EU is important, so to is the wider markets including as I have already said our membership of the CPTPP already confirmed as is the 18 billion investment coming from Japan agreed by Sunak last week

    Whatever happens to the conservative party changes are happened that will result in a very different world trading environment than the days when we were active members of the EU

    Nostalgia colliding with change is going to happen and nostalgia will not win the argument
    Thank goodness the Brexit project is entirely unencumbered by nostalgia.


    Well we do now have trade deals with Australia and New Zealand we didn't have when in the EU and we have the security pact with Australia. It has certainly brought us closer to our southern hemisphere cousins if not much else in terms of global influence (though arguably the vaccine rollout was quicker to do outside the EU)
    Nice that we've swapped a trade deal with a continent you can see from Dover (or Derry) with which we have loads of trade, with one about a twentieth the size, on the other side of the globe, that we have very little with. Sounds like a wise swap.
    As I've noted before, people have a tendency to talk as if we had a No Deal Brexit instead of a trade deal which is incredibly close by global standards.
    Yes, we still have a trade deal with the EU, just added trade deals with Australia and New Zealand too. The 2 nations the UK is probably closer to culturally and ethnically than any other on earth with the possible exception of Ireland (and if you just look at Great Britain and exclude Northern Ireland probably even more so than the Irish Republic and we share a head of state and common language and common law with Australia and New Zealand unlike with the EU).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).

    I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    This is how the GOP are going to steal the election next year.

    Absolute sister fucking fascists.

    Breaking: AZ state Sen. Sonny Borrelli sends letter to counties telling them they aren't allowed to use machines to count ballots.

    Falsely claims that a Senate resolution - not approved by voters/governor - gives the legislature the authority to make this decision.


    https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1660706293722800128

    Except the Arizona Secretary of State who will verify the election is a Democrat
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_of_Arizona#:~:text=The secretary also serves as,holder is Democrat Adrian Fontes.
    The key is to create confusion, push boundaries of acceptable behaviour, and seek to pressure officials or legislatures to junk elections they don't like. In Arizona a few of the recent elections were so tight that it was very close to having such a plan work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,679

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
    There needs to be an apology imo.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177

    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).

    I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
    I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
    This is the world TFR:



    As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.

    And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.



  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,888
    .
    DavidL said:

    I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America.
    His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”.
    And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.”
    He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.

    My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.

    Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.

    Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister.
    I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:

    Tightly-folded bud,
    I have wished you something
    None of the others would:
    Not the usual stuff
    About being beautiful,
    Or running off a spring
    Of innocence and love —
    They will all wish you that,
    And should it prove possible,
    Well, you’re a lucky girl.

    But if it shouldn’t, then
    May you be ordinary;
    Have, like other women,
    An average of talents:
    Not ugly, not good-looking,
    Nothing uncustomary
    To pull you off your balance,
    That, unworkable itself,
    Stops all the rest from working.
    In fact, may you be dull —
    If that is what a skilled,
    Vigilant, flexible,
    Unemphasised, enthralled
    Catching of happiness is called.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662

    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).

    I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
    You've not tried heroin then?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,034
    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.

    https://sachameyers.medium.com/the-united-kingdoms-housing-crises-of-beauty-and-affordability-1303c9636f30

    Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?

    Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
    New builds are genuinely crap. My own one bedroom flat (constructed in the early 2000s) might be described as bijou, but it's palatial compared with most of the rubbish that developers are churning out now. I distinctly recall looking at the details of some new build flats (for I occasionally have a nosy online at the property available locally) that were being put up elsewhere in town just before the Plague struck, and they were fully one third smaller even than mine whilst still being offered at an exorbitant price.

    Where building regulations are lax and homes are in desperately short supply, builders will stuff as many rabbit hutches onto a plot of land as they can, so as to maximise profit. This should come as a surprise to no-one.
    Our local housing association is, with some zeal, converting old Victorian flats to modern standards. I viewed one and at a fairly average height still felt the need to duck as I walked around as the ceiling had been lowered so much to fit insulation by a contractor.

    A friend in Sheffield reported a local councillor coming to view her council flat and explaining that they'd have to block off all her back windows 'for Gaia'.

    Certainly feels like there's something human being lost in all the mix of eco and developer opportunism.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
    This is the world TFR:



    As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.

    And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.



    Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,752

    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.

    I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).

    I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
    I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
    It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,694

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
    This is the world TFR:



    As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.

    And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.



    Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
    Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
    This is the world TFR:



    As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.

    And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.



    So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.

    As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.

    Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.

    While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.

    This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.

    Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The current fertility rate for,a 1.32% decline from 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#:~:text=As of 2020, global TFR,is approaching a significant milestone.
    It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
    Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.

    Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
    This is the world TFR:



    As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.

    And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.



    If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.

    We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    kinabalu said:

    Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.

    A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…

    Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.


    https://apple.news/AzLeoQnLOTTeWHbAgQMK3hg

    Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.

    I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
    There needs to be an apology imo.
    What do you want to apologise for?
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