Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Umm: if household sizes are 20% smaller than the 1970s (and I suspect they are), then average space per person would risen.
New builds are genuinely crap. My own one bedroom flat (constructed in the early 2000s) might be described as bijou, but it's palatial compared with most of the rubbish that developers are churning out now. I distinctly recall looking at the details of some new build flats (for I occasionally have a nosy online at the property available locally) that were being put up elsewhere in town just before the Plague struck, and they were fully one third smaller even than mine whilst still being offered at an exorbitant price.
Where building regulations are lax and homes are in desperately short supply, builders will stuff as many rabbit hutches onto a plot of land as they can, so as to maximise profit. This should come as a surprise to no-one.
Our local housing association is, with some zeal, converting old Victorian flats to modern standards. I viewed one and at a fairly average height still felt the need to duck as I walked around as the ceiling had been lowered so much to fit insulation by a contractor.
A friend in Sheffield reported a local councillor coming to view her council flat and explaining that they'd have to block off all her back windows 'for Gaia'.
Certainly feels like there's something human being lost in all the mix of eco and developer opportunism.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Yes. yes and yes. Four. The first thirty years are the worst.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
Or become more Scottish and die before we retire. Trendsetters, as always.
The key is to create confusion, push boundaries of acceptable behaviour, and seek to pressure officials or legislatures to junk elections they don't like. In Arizona a few of the recent elections were so tight that it was very close to having such a plan work.
So, unless the Secretary of State is a Republican it is irrelevant
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
We won't, the French riot at the prospect of even working to 64. Physically you can't do most manual jobs past 65.
Robots will have to fill in more of the gap, certainly in the developed world where birthrates are falling most
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Eh?
Having passionate sex with intelligent beautiful women in a sumptuous bed is the greatest joy one can have in life.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
Agree. These are the problems we should be addressing by means other than a relentless increase in population.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Eh?
Having passionate sex with intelligent beautiful women in a sumptuous bed is the greatest joy one can have in life.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Yes. yes and yes. Four. The first thirty years are the worst.
The second thirty five years - they were the worst too. The third thirty five years I didn't enjoy at all. After that I went into a bit of a decline.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Eh?
Having passionate sex with intelligent beautiful women in a sumptuous bed is the greatest joy one can have in life.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
As most of you know, the US has "birthright" citizenship, thanks to the 14th Amendment. (I believe most other nations in the Americas have similar rules.)
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
Prediction: “Bregret” will peak - at some insane level, around 70-80% - at the very same time as it becomes clear, for the first moment that there are serious Brexit benefits and Britain is better apart from the EU
I am NOT claiming Brexit will never be reversed. With our dysfunctional polity that is quite possible. Eg we joined the EEC about four years before we discovered Thatcherism - and we nationally solved the economic issues which inspired us to join the EEC in the first place
We're not rejoining the EU in your lifetime.
Is that a reflection on Brexit - or Leon's lifestyle?
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
That’s rather sad when you know that she died in her forties of alcoholism.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Of the 3 you picked, South African and Morocco still have a fertility rate above the global average and even Tunisia is only fractionally below replacement level.
So the world will become increasingly African and there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level, for starters it is far more religious than most of the developed world and religious populations under 45 have more children on average than the non religious
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
Perhaps it's the ideal society: a preponderance of older people so low crime, robots to do most of the hard work, and a relatively small labour force that can command high wages.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Prosperity is the most reliable of all forms of contraception.
Ably aided by secularisation, doomsterism, house prices, over work especially among young women, education training and short termism going on till middle age (ask any doctor or academic), material objects and the need for child seats.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
You do realise that neither Morocco or Tunisia and RSA only partially qualify as what he really means by “African”
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Suspect this is going to be a bit complex for HYUFD to get his head around.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
I think that retirement systems will be the least of the world's problems if a declining population trend not only becomes established, but accelerates.
Capitalism itself as an economic system depends on growth to function. Businesses will borrow to invest because they will expect to grow and so be able to pay back their debts in the future. If the population is shrinking, and particularly if it is shrinking rapidly, then the potential for future growth is much reduced, there's no borrowing for investment and instead the economy contracts - capitalism doesn't exactly do a steady state.
And then, beyond economics, what are the psychological implications of being a young member of a species in irreversible decline, trending towards a population of zero? Not good, I would suggest.
Now, sure, absent large-scale emigration to outer space, stabilising (or gently deflating for a limited period) the global population is a useful, perhaps even necessary thing. But it's going to require some deft handling and cultural change if it's going to avoid becoming a disaster.
The key is to create confusion, push boundaries of acceptable behaviour, and seek to pressure officials or legislatures to junk elections they don't like. In Arizona a few of the recent elections were so tight that it was very close to having such a plan work.
So, unless the Secretary of State is a Republican it is irrelevant
Er, no. Are you of the sort that thinks January 6th shows there is nothing to worry about because it didn;t work...this time?
That people attempt electoral fixes is very concerning (the bipartisan history of gerrymandering is well attested of course) - just managing to avoid a total collapse of electoral integrity in the face of partisan interference is massively concerning and not in the least 'irrelevant'.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
That’s a funny shaped sausage to use for a roll in the hay
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
That’s rather sad when you know that she died in her forties of alcoholism.
Yes. She would be a lucky girl if she had lived the poem.
Even this overlookable poem shows Larkin's genius in hitting a target others can't even see.
Here's a challenge for rcs1000: Explain the recoveries in the US TFR, post WW II, notably the one peaking n 2006-2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States (I am not a demgrapher, but I don't know of any Western nation that has had that kind of recovery since 2000.)
(In my own opinion, part of the explanation is morale. Another part is densification. I don't think it's an accident that the TFR is highest in, for example the Okinawa prefect in Japan, or lowest in Seolu, in Korea.)
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
Perhaps it's the ideal society: a preponderance of older people so low crime, robots to do most of the hard work, and a relatively small labour force that can command high wages.
So far, the experience is that the most aged countries are not the happiest.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
What such people are seeing is the examples of old people who have no one to talk to. Just the grim ticking of the clock.
The key is to create confusion, push boundaries of acceptable behaviour, and seek to pressure officials or legislatures to junk elections they don't like. In Arizona a few of the recent elections were so tight that it was very close to having such a plan work.
There is a really good documentary about it: "Succession".
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
That’s a funny shaped sausage to use for a roll in the hay
Effective as contraception when held between the knees.
PS Does StillWaters know that Booker Prize winning, now totally forgotten, nonconformist organist novelist Stanley Middleton wrote a novel called Still Waters. I read it in about 1976.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Suspect this is going to be a bit complex for HYUFD to get his head around.
All the time HYUFD refuses to consider that the current state of things is not fixed, and that many future changes can be predicted with one degree of accuracy or another. In that he is a caricature of a conservative, a person who sees stasis not merely as desirable, but also inevitable, and fails to conceive of anything else.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Of the 3 you picked, South African and Morocco still have a fertility rate above the global average and even Tunisia is only fractionally below replacement level.
So the world will become increasingly African and there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level, for starters it is far more religious than most of the developed world and religious populations under 45 have more children on average than the non religious
"there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level"
When do you expect fertility rates to stop declining in Africa? Because if they do not, then it's only a matter of time before they fall below replacement levels.
And you religious argument would be a lot more persuasive, if it wasn't for the fact that some of the most religious countries in the world have some of the lowest birthrates.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
I think that retirement systems will be the least of the world's problems if a declining population trend not only becomes established, but accelerates.
Capitalism itself as an economic system depends on growth to function. Businesses will borrow to invest because they will expect to grow and so be able to pay back their debts in the future. If the population is shrinking, and particularly if it is shrinking rapidly, then the potential for future growth is much reduced, there's no borrowing for investment and instead the economy contracts - capitalism doesn't exactly do a steady state.
And then, beyond economics, what are the psychological implications of being a young member of a species in irreversible decline, trending towards a population of zero? Not good, I would suggest.
Now, sure, absent large-scale emigration to outer space, stabilising (or gently deflating for a limited period) the global population is a useful, perhaps even necessary thing. But it's going to require some deft handling and cultural change if it's going to avoid becoming a disaster.
It's not capitalism or capitalism. It just is. Growth depends on more resources or in making more efficient use of existing resources.
So it would increase the onus on making more efficient use of existing resources.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
Eh?
Having passionate sex with intelligent beautiful women in a sumptuous bed is the greatest joy one can have in life.
Something I wish I knew much much more about.
If you play your cards right one leads rather naturally to the other.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
You've not tried heroin then?
For the avoidance of doubt, I have not. But I have tried parenting, and I reckon heroin would be more fun.
halfway between heroin and parenting is a roll and square sausage, if that helps.
That’s a funny shaped sausage to use for a roll in the hay
Effective as contraception when held between the knees.
Yes, and think of all the fun you can have later trying to vacuum up all the crumbs that you've managed to entwine with your bedding.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
Serious trouble ahead is France's middle name.
Somehow they manage to emerge phoenix like.
What's France's surname?
France Serious Trouble Ahead Zut-Alors We Revolt Again.
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Fewer people = less strain on the planet's resources.
Generally a good thing, but challenges to societies that age, and rely on new workers to pay for the comfortable retirement of the oldies.
That's true. But unless the population's going to go up forever, at some point it has to...not go up.
Sure: but if the TFR is 2.1, and you grow retirement age with life expectancy, then you have a stable relationship between the number of workers and the number of retirees.
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
Perhaps it's the ideal society: a preponderance of older people so low crime, robots to do most of the hard work, and a relatively small labour force that can command high wages.
So far, the experience is that the most aged countries are not the happiest.
Really? Look at a list of countries ranked by median age. At the youngest end you'll have a host of central African countries. At the oldest end you have Spain, Portugal, Greece, Germany, Italy, Japan, Monaco.
Hard to measure happiness but my money would be on the latter list being happier countires than the former.
Tory MPs have accused Suella Braverman of stoking divisions in the party as she faces a potential probe into claims she breached the ministerial code by asking civil servants if they could help arrange a private awareness course after she was caught speeding.
Allies of the beleaguered Home Secretary have claimed that the accusations show she has been subjected to a “witch hunt” for her hardline stance on immigration.
But one senior Conservative MP dismissed such claims and said that Ms Braverman had “picked a fight” herself with multiple groups across Westminster in recent weeks and months.
“I don’t think anyone who is quite that punchy could have a witch hunt against them,” they told i.
“I cannot think of a week for the past six or seven weeks where she hasn’t picked a fight with a different set of people.”
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
At some level we’re all African anyway…
Rubbish, I claim descent from Pangea and nowhere else…
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
At some level we’re all African anyway…
Rubbish, I claim descent from Pangea and nowhere else…
Leon can claim descent from some bottom-feeding sea creature, and we can only be disappointed that evolution only made it so far.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
I don't tend to worry about it as if things get that bad I'd just find a way to er.... well you know.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
I don't tend to worry about it as if things get that bad I'd just find a way to er.... well you know.
Me, I'm planning on befriending a robot when it gets to that stage. Or something
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Of the 3 you picked, South African and Morocco still have a fertility rate above the global average and even Tunisia is only fractionally below replacement level.
So the world will become increasingly African and there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level, for starters it is far more religious than most of the developed world and religious populations under 45 have more children on average than the non religious
"there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level"
When do you expect fertility rates to stop declining in Africa? Because if they do not, then it's only a matter of time before they fall below replacement levels.
And you religious argument would be a lot more persuasive, if it wasn't for the fact that some of the most religious countries in the world have some of the lowest birthrates.
Not in terms of most religious under 45 they don't. 'Mean TFR 1970–1975 for the most secular countries was 2.8 children, for moderate 3.3 and for most religious 5.4. The corresponding values 2000–2005 were 1.8, 1.7 and 2.8. Several other studies also suggest that religiosity favors high TFR' https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7
'According to Pew's data, the average Mormon can expect to make 3.4 babies in his or her lifetime. Jews, Catholics, and most flavors of Protestantism have fertility rates ranging from 2 to 2.5. At the low end of the baby-making spectrum you've got atheists, with 1.6 kids, and agnostics, who average only 1.3.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/05/12/charted-the-religions-that-make-the-most-babies/
The key is to create confusion, push boundaries of acceptable behaviour, and seek to pressure officials or legislatures to junk elections they don't like. In Arizona a few of the recent elections were so tight that it was very close to having such a plan work.
So, unless the Secretary of State is a Republican it is irrelevant
Er, no. Are you of the sort that thinks January 6th shows there is nothing to worry about because it didn;t work...this time?
That people attempt electoral fixes is very concerning (the bipartisan history of gerrymandering is well attested of course) - just managing to avoid a total collapse of electoral integrity in the face of partisan interference is massively concerning and not in the least 'irrelevant'.
Party hacks have often tried to control presidential election results in the US, not just on the GOP side, see the large numbers of votes Chicago Democrat Mayor Daley 'found' for JFK in Illinois in 1960 v Nixon
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
So every African nation there is still well above global replacement rate and well above replacement rate. In Nigeria it is still only slightly down from 1950s levels.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
Dude:
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
Of the 3 you picked, South African and Morocco still have a fertility rate above the global average and even Tunisia is only fractionally below replacement level.
So the world will become increasingly African and there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level, for starters it is far more religious than most of the developed world and religious populations under 45 have more children on average than the non religious
"there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level"
When do you expect fertility rates to stop declining in Africa? Because if they do not, then it's only a matter of time before they fall below replacement levels.
And you religious argument would be a lot more persuasive, if it wasn't for the fact that some of the most religious countries in the world have some of the lowest birthrates.
Not in terms of most religious under 45 they don't. 'Mean TFR 1970–1975 for the most secular countries was 2.8 children, for moderate 3.3 and for most religious 5.4. The corresponding values 2000–2005 were 1.8, 1.7 and 2.8. Several other studies also suggest that religiosity favors high TFR' https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7
'According to Pew's data, the average Mormon can expect to make 3.4 babies in his or her lifetime. Jews, Catholics, and most flavors of Protestantism have fertility rates ranging from 2 to 2.5. At the low end of the baby-making spectrum you've got atheists, with 1.6 kids, and agnostics, who average only 1.3.' https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/05/12/charted-the-religions-that-make-the-most-babies/
It looks to me like the trend is the same across all societies. The birthrate has fallen by 50-60% across the board, although the starting point is higher in religious societies.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
My daughter is getting married and I have to do the father of the bride speech. Probably not gushing enough but tempting all the same. Hmmm
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
Not sure. Kingsley will be, is, remembered for Lucky Jim and The Old Devils which won the Booker. Martin's stuff will likely survive as his will surely be the "go to" material for anyone in the future interested in 1980/90s for example. Larkin, obviously , is an immortal now, his reputation having survived the drubbing it received in the years immediately after his death. High Windows and The Whitsun Weddings are just too good.
“We have hand painted your name in pharaonic letters on an original handmade papyrus”
And they really have
It’s not enough tho. I want “we have slaughtered and sacrificed 17 cats to the goddess Bastet, and had them mummified and placed in a shape to resemble your ex wife; you will find them in the bed”
That doesn’t say Leon!
hmm is it just me or is this self doxxing?
Mate, it’s random Egyptian letters from 2000BC. As doxxings go it’s quite obscure
Next they will reveal my approximate postcode in a mixture of Cunieform and Gomeran Whistling
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
My daughter is getting married and I have to do the father of the bride speech. Probably not gushing enough but tempting all the same. Hmmm
Total Fertility Rates have dropped dramatically across the world.
Iran - home of the Ayatollahs and the religious police - has a TFR of just 1.7.
While nutters worry about too many people, the real challenge we're all going to be facing is depopulation and an inbalance between the aged and the young.
This will screw with elections even more as the number of retired voters will exceed the number of working ones.
Not in Africa. In Africa the TFR is still a high 4.1, even if a slight decline that is well above the global TFR of 2.3
It's been declining faster in most African countries than anyone was expecting AFAIK.
Really? African fertility rate is almost double Asian fertility rate of 2.2 and Oceanic fertility rate of 2.4 and more than double European fertility rate of 1.6, North American fertility rate of 1.8 and Latin American fertility rate of 2.0.
Population wise at least the world is going to becoming increasingly African. Africa is also now the most religious continent and many parts like Nigeria seeing significant economic growth from a low base which will hopefully reduce emigration levels and pressures from attempted immigration to more developed nations as with the boats across the Mediterranean and Channel
This is the world TFR:
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
If that is the case then current retirement models eventually won't work anywhere.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
I think that retirement systems will be the least of the world's problems if a declining population trend not only becomes established, but accelerates.
Capitalism itself as an economic system depends on growth to function. Businesses will borrow to invest because they will expect to grow and so be able to pay back their debts in the future. If the population is shrinking, and particularly if it is shrinking rapidly, then the potential for future growth is much reduced, there's no borrowing for investment and instead the economy contracts - capitalism doesn't exactly do a steady state.
And then, beyond economics, what are the psychological implications of being a young member of a species in irreversible decline, trending towards a population of zero? Not good, I would suggest.
Now, sure, absent large-scale emigration to outer space, stabilising (or gently deflating for a limited period) the global population is a useful, perhaps even necessary thing. But it's going to require some deft handling and cultural change if it's going to avoid becoming a disaster.
It's not capitalism or capitalism. It just is. Growth depends on more resources or in making more efficient use of existing resources.
So it would increase the onus on making more efficient use of existing resources.
Quite - we don’t need more long tons of pig iron per person. The Information Age is about exotic arrangement of atoms and electrons, after all.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
My daughter is getting married and I have to do the father of the bride speech. Probably not gushing enough but tempting all the same. Hmmm
There's always "This Be The Verse" of course...
Yes it is truly brilliant. But maybe not on topic.
I’ve got two kids and frankly I’d sooner chop it off than have any more.
I love em but our culture in the hyper-information era is not geared towards large families, particularly where both parents work (never mind what it’s like for single parents, and never mind the fact that today’s grandparents generally are not paying forward the service their own parents did them).
I've got three and it is striking how much more work it is than having two. I think both my wife and I sometimes regret not having more, though. Children are the greatest joy one can have in life.
I have single friends who are now wondering who they will depend on in old age. One lady is the only child with no other near relatives of anything like her age.
It's probably practical, but I'm not sure I can think of a more depressing reason to have kids.
I don't tend to worry about it as if things get that bad I'd just find a way to er.... well you know.
Me, I'm planning on befriending a robot when it gets to that stage. Or something
What is interesting is the actual response - people seem to club together in closer friendship groups. I suspect that some of the people I am thinking off will end up sharing a house together.
We should embrace and adapt to falling birthrates (and being humans, we surely will).
In the long-term a dramatically smaller global population would be great news for the planet. We should no longer assume growth is inevitable*, or even desirable. There's no reason why we cannot continue to develop better long-term health prospects through better health care. AI and robotics can be a help.
*For years we have used GDP per capita as a measure of success but are we any happier as a nation than we were 50 years ago when GDP per capita was half what it is today?
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
Fascinating conservative article on what a terrible job Britain does in building homes. UK homes 20% smaller than in the 70s. The smallest in Europe and the most expensive/least energy efficient. The one thing I wasn't aware of was how so many homes in the rest of Europe are self build. Over 50% in many countries. Rather flies in the face of our supposed individualistic tendencies and shows that when it comes to property we are full on corporatists.
Pours cold water on anyone who dares suggest modern Britain is a success. Will anyone dare to fix this disaster?
Succesive post war Governments right into this century have actively worked against the self build trend. All the building regs are tailored to large developments and councils do as much as they can to discourage the idea.
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
I have followed the debate about planning in a professional capacity for 15 years, and have observed that some ideas are intellectually disproven and destroyed over and over again but immediately re-emerge unharmed the next day, whatever happens... like groundhog day. One such idea is to deregulate, let people build, houses will be more plentiful and cheaper, beauty and creativity will be unleashed, etc. But it won't work like that, such a move will just create the same set of problems that resulted in the planning system being bought in to being back in 1947.
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
I thought I would get retaliation in first before anyone posts immigration into UK is crap when I’m busy tomorrow. Despite ugly history of “rivers of blood” speech and that, we are probably closer to India now than any time since Lady Mountbatten was bonking Primeminster Nehru.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
Has it happened yet again? On Saturday Russia’s deputy science minister, Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, fell ill on a flight from Cuba & died after an emergency landing. After Putin invaded Ukraine last year, Kucherenko described it privately to a journalist as ‘this fascist invasion’.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
Regret over Britain’s decision to vote for Brexit has reached new highs, according to new polling tracking so-called “Bregret”.
A YouGov survey shows the number of Britons saying it was right to vote to leave the European Union in 2016 dropping to its lowest level ever, at 31%…
Only 9% of Britons now consider Brexit more of a success than a failure, according to the poll. Some 62% of people describe it as more of a failure. Even among those who voted Leave, 37% say Brexit has been more of a failure.
Brexit will become the most Pyrrhic of Pyrrhic victories for the Tories. The Westminster Brexit omertà will break. The pressure increases, gradually, incrementally, inexorably. Soon - it might be a decade away, but it’s coming - there will be a huge electoral reward to reap for the party bold enough to pivot whole-heartedly to the EU.
I'm actually quite surprised by these findings: I thought the Leavers would have had more loyalty to the cause. What all this must show is that hardly anyone gives a fig about abstract concepts such as sovereignty; it's only hard economics and tangible benefits that people care about. The spiritual stuff about Brexit was largely a chimera. It's all rather Orwell on Kipling and Empire.
There needs to be an apology imo.
I love curry I do, and saving the Great British Curry is an obvious Brexit success. No apologies for that.
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
Strictly speaking it was a national political choice to restrict the numbers of non EU immigrants as this wasn't an EU competence. Nevertheless much higher immigration is the clear consequence of Brexit even if there's no causation. It's worth understanding the implications given there are no Brexit benefits, but we aren't going to rejoin either.
This new immigration, largely from India is mostly well educated, quite well paid and going into the cities. It won't do anything for levelling up in already deprived areas but it could help boost the economies of cities, which will become more ethnically diverse and whose youngish populations voted Remain anyway.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
I've just had the most outsanding grilled fish and chips for £12.50. It was in a cash only chippie in a dodgy part of town with a customer base largely involving the local down and outs. It was recommended by a local filmmaker in a youtube video. Always worth trying new things out!
Nice to hear you've found somewhere you've not tried before and had a great meal.
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
I can’t let this day go by without referring to Martin Amis’s collection “The Moronic Inferno”. I have Money and London Fields but of all his books I enjoyed that the most. Brilliant, brilliant journalism, mainly about America. His reviews of JG Ballard and his sensational pieces on a serial killer of children in Los Angles stand out. His piece on the latter repetitiously stated, in accordance with the message of the State: “Never go with strangers” only for the pay off “but they do”. And the Ballard from memory, “you finish the book baffled and confused but that is only half the story. Then, you wait for the story to haunt you. And it does.” He struggled to keep this up over a whole novel, a bit Tarantino like, he did brilliant scenes but struggled with the overarching narrative arc. But boy could that man write.
My unverifiable prediction is, though talented, he won't be remembered in a few generations time. As we all know his similarly talented father was a big mate of Larkin. Kingsley and Martin both made fortunes and celebrity from their talent - good luck to them - but if you ask me Will you bother to read 'Lucky Jim' or 'London Fields' again the answer is No.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister. I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud, I have wished you something None of the others would: Not the usual stuff About being beautiful, Or running off a spring Of innocence and love — They will all wish you that, And should it prove possible, Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then May you be ordinary; Have, like other women, An average of talents: Not ugly, not good-looking, Nothing uncustomary To pull you off your balance, That, unworkable itself, Stops all the rest from working. In fact, may you be dull — If that is what a skilled, Vigilant, flexible, Unemphasised, enthralled Catching of happiness is called.
My daughter is getting married and I have to do the father of the bride speech. Probably not gushing enough but tempting all the same. Hmmm
As long as you don't go thinking that you are in court and jump up shouting "Objection!" half way through the ceremony.
Comments
As a planet, we're now only a smidgen above replacement levels. And the trends are relentlessly downward.
And Africa is following exactly the same paths as everywhere else. Birth rates are collapsing there too. They're just twenty years behind - say - Bangladesh.
Larkin couldn't make a living from writing poetry. But it will still be read in 500 years time.
Not his best effort, but this is his poem on the birth of Martin's sister.
I'd rather have this than her brother's novels:
Tightly-folded bud,
I have wished you something
None of the others would:
Not the usual stuff
About being beautiful,
Or running off a spring
Of innocence and love —
They will all wish you that,
And should it prove possible,
Well, you’re a lucky girl.
But if it shouldn’t, then
May you be ordinary;
Have, like other women,
An average of talents:
Not ugly, not good-looking,
Nothing uncustomary
To pull you off your balance,
That, unworkable itself,
Stops all the rest from working.
In fact, may you be dull —
If that is what a skilled,
Vigilant, flexible,
Unemphasised, enthralled
Catching of happiness is called.
A friend in Sheffield reported a local councillor coming to view her council flat and explaining that they'd have to block off all her back windows 'for Gaia'.
Certainly feels like there's something human being lost in all the mix of eco and developer opportunism.
As I said, the world population is going to become increasingly African
My father bought a piece of land next to a disused pub in 1969 and we lived in a caravan for 6 months whilst my parents built the place (They had a local bricky put up the shell but did everything else themselves from digging the foundations to topping out). They ended up with a house they could never have afforded to buy in a plot far larger than the average even then and my mother still lives in the same house. It is a wonderful way to create a home and something that is actively encouraged in many European countries.
We'll all have to work until the last 2-3 years of our lives.
Robots will have to fill in more of the gap, certainly in the developed world where birthrates are falling most
Having passionate sex with intelligent beautiful women in a sumptuous bed is the greatest joy one can have in life.
Something I wish I knew much much more about.
** With apologies
Nigeria is Bangladesh, but twenty years behind.
And I didn't even cherry pick the countries. If I'd wanted to, I could have shown South Africa (2.37), Morocco (2.33) or Tunisia (2.09).
Sure, the world will become more African. But we're barely more than a decade away from Africa's birth rate being below replacement.
I haven't seen a formal estimate of the number of Koreans who are born in the United States, but the articles typically say "thousands" each year:
For example: https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=20020526&slug=koreabirths26
As most of you know, the US has "birthright" citizenship, thanks to the 14th Amendment. (I believe most other nations in the Americas have similar rules.)
If your TFR is 0.7, your population is ageing and there are riots every time you try and change the retirement age, then... ummm... there is serious trouble ahead.
So the world will become increasingly African and there is no evidence at all Africa overall will move below replacement level, for starters it is far more religious than most of the developed world and religious populations under 45 have more children on average than the non religious
Ably aided by secularisation, doomsterism, house prices, over work especially among young women, education training and short termism going on till middle age (ask any doctor or academic), material objects and the need for child seats.
Somehow they manage to emerge phoenix like.
Capitalism itself as an economic system depends on growth to function. Businesses will borrow to invest because they will expect to grow and so be able to pay back their debts in the future. If the population is shrinking, and particularly if it is shrinking rapidly, then the potential for future growth is much reduced, there's no borrowing for investment and instead the economy contracts - capitalism doesn't exactly do a steady state.
And then, beyond economics, what are the psychological implications of being a young member of a species in irreversible decline, trending towards a population of zero? Not good, I would suggest.
Now, sure, absent large-scale emigration to outer space, stabilising (or gently deflating for a limited period) the global population is a useful, perhaps even necessary thing. But it's going to require some deft handling and cultural change if it's going to avoid becoming a disaster.
That people attempt electoral fixes is very concerning (the bipartisan history of gerrymandering is well attested of course) - just managing to avoid a total collapse of electoral integrity in the face of partisan interference is massively concerning and not in the least 'irrelevant'.
Even this overlookable poem shows Larkin's genius in hitting a target others can't even see.
(In my own opinion, part of the explanation is morale. Another part is densification. I don't think it's an accident that the TFR is highest in, for example the Okinawa prefect in Japan, or lowest in Seolu, in Korea.)
PS Does StillWaters know that Booker Prize winning, now totally forgotten, nonconformist organist novelist Stanley Middleton wrote a novel called Still Waters. I read it in about 1976.
When do you expect fertility rates to stop declining in Africa? Because if they do not, then it's only a matter of time before they fall below replacement levels.
And you religious argument would be a lot more persuasive, if it wasn't for the fact that some of the most religious countries in the world have some of the lowest birthrates.
So it would increase the onus on making more efficient use of existing resources.
France Serious Trouble Ahead Zut-Alors We Revolt Again.
Hard to measure happiness but my money would be on the latter list being happier countires than the former.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
Allies of the beleaguered Home Secretary have claimed that the accusations show she has been subjected to a “witch hunt” for her hardline stance on immigration.
But one senior Conservative MP dismissed such claims and said that Ms Braverman had “picked a fight” herself with multiple groups across Westminster in recent weeks and months.
“I don’t think anyone who is quite that punchy could have a witch hunt against them,” they told i.
“I cannot think of a week for the past six or seven weeks where she hasn’t picked a fight with a different set of people.”
'Mean TFR 1970–1975 for the most secular countries was 2.8 children, for moderate 3.3 and for most religious 5.4. The corresponding values 2000–2005 were 1.8, 1.7 and 2.8. Several other studies also suggest that religiosity favors high TFR'
https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7
'According to Pew's data, the average Mormon can expect to make 3.4 babies in his or her lifetime. Jews, Catholics, and most flavors of Protestantism have fertility rates ranging from 2 to 2.5. At the low end of the baby-making spectrum you've got atheists, with 1.6 kids, and agnostics, who average only 1.3.'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/05/12/charted-the-religions-that-make-the-most-babies/
Not sure how 'down and outs' afford £12.50 for fish and chips though?! Even Rick Stein only charges £10.95.
https://www.rickstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/a4-chippy-menu-ta-150523.pdf
Larkin, obviously , is an immortal now, his reputation having survived the drubbing it received in the years immediately after his death. High Windows and The Whitsun Weddings are just too good.
Liz Truss crashed the economy
“Businesses are making use of the new post-Brexit migration system - a growing number of skilled workers from Africa and Asia are moving to Britain”
https://news.sky.com/story/post-brexit-shift-sees-workers-from-asia-and-africa-plug-uk-staff-shortages-12886995
Is it not a fact being in the EU stopped us from having our own system? Brexiteers were up front about this during the campaign, the number of skilled workers from outside the EU was capped, post Brexit it would be different.
"By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/brexit-will-save-uks-indian-food-industry-priti-patel/articleshow/52348340.cms
I also recall a PB post from TSE where a lot of the migrants crossing channel in boats are Indian too. We currently have a government in Westminister very very close and helpful to India and Indians, which makes a change, and is showing a benefit because “the Indians are coming” is a lot better than “the Turks are coming” we were threatened with by vote leave.
Then again, I love Turkish cuisine too. Poached egg on garlic yoghurt with hot sweet pepper flakes. Yum 😋
Russian minister who criticised Vladimir Putin over Ukraine war mysteriously dies after falling fatally ill on flight to Moscow
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1660746015299850260
In the long-term a dramatically smaller global population would be great news for the planet. We should no longer assume growth is inevitable*, or even desirable. There's no reason why we cannot continue to develop better long-term health prospects through better health care. AI and robotics can be a help.
*For years we have used GDP per capita as a measure of success but are we any happier as a nation than we were 50 years ago when GDP per capita was half what it is today?
On self build... the reality is that it is uneconomic compared with the economies of scale that exist with volume housebuilders so it just isn't an option unless a) you are in the building trade and can do it by calling in favours, b) you have very deep pockets or c) you are an extremely determined, exceptional individual. A lot of self build is not how you might imagine, people laying bricks etc themselves; it is project managing a professional team deliver a project, or just overseeing a design and build contract, and a lot of it goes wrong in some way or massively over budget.
This is not the same team that lost in 2015, this is clearly the best team they’ve had for well over a decade
https://www.rickstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Barnes-sample-menu-20.03.23.pdf
I don't think there is anything in the world I would enjoy more than tailing this thief until the police turn up. Imagine the fuel anxiety!
https://twitter.com/PaulWoodford84/status/1660695906360999936?s=20
https://twitter.com/JohnSimpsonNews/status/1660621627829153793
https://www.rickstein.com/restaurants/steins-fish-and-chips/
This new immigration, largely from India is mostly well educated, quite well paid and going into the cities. It won't do anything for levelling up in already deprived areas but it could help boost the economies of cities, which will become more ethnically diverse and whose youngish populations voted Remain anyway.
Mea cupla!
http://www.fourpoundsflour.com/living-history-tea-and-two-slices/
(Still available at Wetherspoons: £1.34 for the bread and butter and £1.45 for the unlimited sugary milky tea, at my nearest, per the app)
Dominic Raab will stand down as an MP at the next general election, calling time on his parliamentary career just a month after he quit the Cabinet over bullying claims from civil servants.
The Telegraph has seen an exchange of letters between the former deputy prime minister and the chairman of his local Conservative Association dated last Friday explaining his decision.
Mr Raab wrote: “I have become increasingly concerned over the last few years about the pressure the job has placed on my young family.” His sons Peter and Joshua are respectively aged 10 and 8.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/22/dominic-raab-quits-politics-family-pressure-resignation/