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A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 729
    kle4 said:

    The UK song was decently written, the problem is that Mae Muller is a terrible live artist. This was clear in the semi finals.

    If the UK is to win, the song writing talent is now good - after being terrible for a long time - but they must find an artist that can actually perform well live.

    We'd have won last year but for the unique circumstances!
    We got to host this year, we are the staunchest supporters of Ukraine among the big rich European nations. We’ll take that I think, we did Ukraine proud.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488

    Sweden 583
    Finland 526
    Israel 362

    Told you Finland would be massive.

    Good effort/ But nothing was ever going to beat Sweden.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    Over 4 hours...somewhat excessive.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,963
    Every year Eurovision smashes it out of the park. Even if the wrong act wins, the event itself is banging.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,298
     What's the point of the official judges' scores?
    Down with elites!
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    Sam Ryder seems to have been an accident in terms of live performance at this point. Even though the team that wrote the song were the same as this year.

    With a decent artist this year would have been good for us IMHO.

    Staging and costumes need to be better too.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,574
    FPT

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Conservative just means you're cautious and a bit suspicious of change, and only want to do so if you have to, and then to do so gradually. If it ain't broke dont fix it.

    Of course, that in itself is reason enough why plenty of people don't like them.

    The other point of view is that many people don't like change and taking this approach to Government allows for stability, consistency, broad peace, preservation of tradition/ what works, predictability and thus extra space economic growth, and stops silly ideas and radical dogma that's poorly thought through from being put into practice.

    Which is why Brexit has pissed off so many natural Conservatives. Totally silly idea with radical dogma and poorly thought through.

    The Conservatives won't recover until they repent of Brexitism.
    I knew someone would respond (in seconds) with Brexit.

    That conflicted across the principle because many Conservatives thought it was riskier to stay because of the radical change that they felt would inevitably come, which was also against their values. If you believe in conserving national sovereignty and independence, and not steadily creeping towards a federal Europe, you won't have had a problem with this.

    Too many seem to miss this and focus just on the economic disruption, more often than not because they themselves aren't Conservatives.

    The only unConservative bit, in my view, was in the response to the vote itself, which became too dogmatic.
    Well, Brexit and its economic consequences is why the Red Wall thinks this government has failed, and why the Blue Wall hates it too.

    Brexit is the political monkeys paw. You get what you wish for and regret it very quickly.
    Not quickly enough, though.

    But yes, at some point the Conservatives stopped being conservative. Incremental change, think in generations, work out why the fence was put up before you tear it down, that sort of thing. It's not just about Brexit, for all that is totemic. (After all, a conservative approach to being Eurosceptic would have been to take Dave's deal and set it in concrete. It probably would have stuck.)

    And then there's Starmer's speech today (there's a link here; https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1657353519165321216). Large chunks of it read like the sort of thing that a One Nation Tory of previous generations- Iain Macleod, say, could have said. But it's really hard to see who is standing up for this sort of thing in the current setup.
    What was the "conservative" option to disengage with the EU given it had taken a "conservative" attitude to steadily ratcheting up integration over several decades to arrive at such a decidedly objectionable position to so many Conservatives?
    The rather bleak answer is that (IIRC) when Jean-Claude Juncker offered to David Cameron that the UK be moved to a newly-made up outer rim position, giving the UK much if not all of what it wanted, Cameron said no. Cameron thought he could keep UK at the heart of Europe. And seven years later here we are... :(
    I remain to be convinced that actually happened, although I can fully believe Cameron's response if it did.

    Anyone have any actual evidence of this?
    I've had a brief look and I can't find any. It's something I remember, but I don't know if it's something I remember happening or something I remember reading. Combined with more and more sources vanishing behind paywalls and Google's increasingly unhelpful algorithm I can't say yea or nay. If I find anything that looks like evidence I will let you know.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    HYUFD said:

    Well done Sweden, not as good as last year for the UK but we avoided null points. Night all

    Germany must be really pissed off. They have inherited our wooden spoon.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,599
    Fake news. Sweden didn’t win. Vote fixing.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,298

    Over 4 hours...somewhat excessive.

    Excess is the usp

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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 729

    Over 4 hours...somewhat excessive.

    At least they scheduled it till 12. Normally 11 but running wayyy over..,
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    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 621
    I thought the staging was great. Well done, Liverpool.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,001
    edited May 2023
    I keep segueing the opening bars to Loreen's "Tattoo" into ABBA's "The Winner Takes It All" :lol:
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,073
    Coronation last week, Eurovision this week, the BBC has done us proud.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    edited May 2023
    Someone at the BBC going old school with the headline here.

    Still one too many non S words though.

    Sunak in Southampton stands, sees Saints sunk.
  • Options
    Eurovision is like PB.com - a very niche pursuit pursued by mainly well-off urban-based types who think it matters far more than it actually does :)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,795
    So after some frenzied trading of my positions in running and then during the voting I've lost a net 72 pence.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,382
    I see that PB's Eurovision 'experts' would be better off sticking to politics.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,963
    kinabalu said:

    So after some frenzied trading of my positions in running and then during the voting I've lost a net 72 pence.

    I've lost tomorrow morning to a hangover...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    HYUFD said:

    Well done Sweden, not as good as last year for the UK but we avoided null points. Night all

    Germany must be really pissed off. They have inherited our wooden spoon.
    Germany won more recently than us, in 2010. The French last in 1977.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,963
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well done Sweden, not as good as last year for the UK but we avoided null points. Night all

    Germany must be really pissed off. They have inherited our wooden spoon.
    Germany won more recently than us, in 2010. The French last in 1977.
    It's no longer about winning. Its about trying to out-camp the next camp as a tent shop contestant.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 729
    Good that Australia made the final, there was talk of them leaving the contest as they kept failing in semi-finals.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well done Sweden, not as good as last year for the UK but we avoided null points. Night all

    Germany must be really pissed off. They have inherited our wooden spoon.
    Germany won more recently than us, in 2010. The French last in 1977.
    It's no longer about winning. Its about trying to out-camp the next camp as a tent shop contestant.
    The key though is to actually want to win. Camp yes, but not too obviously a pisstake. The Moldovan genius is that they look like they mean it...
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,382
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Conservative just means you're cautious and a bit suspicious of change, and only want to do so if you have to, and then to do so gradually. If it ain't broke dont fix it.

    Of course, that in itself is reason enough why plenty of people don't like them.

    The other point of view is that many people don't like change and taking this approach to Government allows for stability, consistency, broad peace, preservation of tradition/ what works, predictability and thus extra space economic growth, and stops silly ideas and radical dogma that's poorly thought through from being put into practice.

    Which is why Brexit has pissed off so many natural Conservatives. Totally silly idea with radical dogma and poorly thought through.

    The Conservatives won't recover until they repent of Brexitism.
    I knew someone would respond (in seconds) with Brexit.

    That conflicted across the principle because many Conservatives thought it was riskier to stay because of the radical change that they felt would inevitably come, which was also against their values. If you believe in conserving national sovereignty and independence, and not steadily creeping towards a federal Europe, you won't have had a problem with this.

    Too many seem to miss this and focus just on the economic disruption, more often than not because they themselves aren't Conservatives.

    The only unConservative bit, in my view, was in the response to the vote itself, which became too dogmatic.
    Well, Brexit and its economic consequences is why the Red Wall thinks this government has failed, and why the Blue Wall hates it too.

    Brexit is the political monkeys paw. You get what you wish for and regret it very quickly.
    Not quickly enough, though.

    But yes, at some point the Conservatives stopped being conservative. Incremental change, think in generations, work out why the fence was put up before you tear it down, that sort of thing. It's not just about Brexit, for all that is totemic. (After all, a conservative approach to being Eurosceptic would have been to take Dave's deal and set it in concrete. It probably would have stuck.)

    And then there's Starmer's speech today (there's a link here; https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1657353519165321216). Large chunks of it read like the sort of thing that a One Nation Tory of previous generations- Iain Macleod, say, could have said. But it's really hard to see who is standing up for this sort of thing in the current setup.
    What was the "conservative" option to disengage with the EU given it had taken a "conservative" attitude to steadily ratcheting up integration over several decades to arrive at such a decidedly objectionable position to so many Conservatives?
    The rather bleak answer is that (IIRC) when Jean-Claude Juncker offered to David Cameron that the UK be moved to a newly-made up outer rim position, giving the UK much if not all of what it wanted, Cameron said no. Cameron thought he could keep UK at the heart of Europe. And seven years later here we are... :(
    I remain to be convinced that actually happened, although I can fully believe Cameron's response if it did.

    Anyone have any actual evidence of this?
    I've had a brief look and I can't find any. It's something I remember, but I don't know if it's something I remember happening or something I remember reading. Combined with more and more sources vanishing behind paywalls and Google's increasingly unhelpful algorithm I can't say yea or nay. If I find anything that looks like evidence I will let you know.
    Don't worry.

    Even if it didn't happen it would have happened if anyone had thought to do it at the time.

    Is that an example of a post-truth world or a post-modern world or post something else ?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,392
    Apparently the British public’s favourite act was Finland ! Good grief I despair . I thought Mae was robbed , her song was far better than the vast majority .
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    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the British public’s favourite act was Finland ! Good grief I despair . I thought Mae was robbed , her song was far better than the vast majority .

    Sorry Nico, a load of nonsense. The UK's song itself was good but was performed horrifically. We thoroughly deserved to come last.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,288
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the British public’s favourite act was Finland ! Good grief I despair . I thought Mae was robbed , her song was far better than the vast majority .

    Aiui Finland was everyone's favourite act and would have won if the juries had not given Sweden such a huge margin.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,392
    edited May 2023
    I bet the majority of the public aren’t even aware that Commonwealth citizens residing here can vote in UK general elections.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,794
    We should introduce voter ID for Eurovision
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,794

    ...

    Sorry to interrupt the Eurovision song contest but Police Scotland investating 1,000 alleged cases of fraud

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1657496055620009984?t=Xl1oBAPp29aXGWugOefsLQ&s=19

    It's OK, it's only the (Scottish) Mail, so probably bearing little relevance to reality.
    Why would you seek to play down something as potentially serious as this ?
    BigG. you always get very excited when your political foes appear to be in trouble, remember Currygate? And for example on the flipside you played down Partygate at its height.

    I accept the SNP are in trouble, but I suspect the Mail are gilding this particular lily. I don't believe Labour, or the Conservatives will benefit as much as we are told, from the SNP's travails.
    He was wanking himself dry over currygate on a daily basis. It was all so much wishful thinking though.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,228
    edited May 2023
    kle4 said:

    Someone at the BBC going old school with the headline here.

    Still one too many non S words though.

    Sunak in Southampton stands, sees Saints sunk.

    Southampton stands: Sunak sees Saints suck

    Edit: I like that typo so I’m not changing it. So there!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,574


    viewcode said:



    viewcode said:




    What was the "conservative" option to disengage with the EU given it had taken a "conservative" attitude to steadily ratcheting up integration over several decades to arrive at such a decidedly objectionable position to so many Conservatives?

    The rather bleak answer is that (IIRC) when Jean-Claude Juncker offered to David Cameron that the UK be moved to a newly-made up outer rim position, giving the UK much if not all of what it wanted, Cameron said no. Cameron thought he could keep UK at the heart of Europe. And seven years later here we are... :(
    I remain to be convinced that actually happened, although I can fully believe Cameron's response if it did.

    Anyone have any actual evidence of this?
    I've had a brief look and I can't find any. It's something I remember, but I don't know if it's something I remember happening or something I remember reading. Combined with more and more sources vanishing behind paywalls and Google's increasingly unhelpful algorithm I can't say yea or nay. If I find anything that looks like evidence I will let you know.
    Don't worry.

    Even if it didn't happen it would have happened if anyone had thought to do it at the time.

    Is that an example of a post-truth world or a post-modern world or post something else ?
    Unknown. I am aware of confabulation or fabulation, where one's memories are assembled from bits and pieces to make a coherent thread, regardless of whether that thread actually represents events or even happened. I try to get round this by seeing not just if I remember something, but whether I remember remembering it. But backing it up with "research" is getting more difficult - that bit about Google getting worse and paywalls removing info is true - and in order to prove/disprove it means that I will have to do something like getting books out of the library. Which is time-consuming.

    So I'm glum. :(
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,794
    viewcode said:


    viewcode said:



    viewcode said:




    What was the "conservative" option to disengage with the EU given it had taken a "conservative" attitude to steadily ratcheting up integration over several decades to arrive at such a decidedly objectionable position to so many Conservatives?

    The rather bleak answer is that (IIRC) when Jean-Claude Juncker offered to David Cameron that the UK be moved to a newly-made up outer rim position, giving the UK much if not all of what it wanted, Cameron said no. Cameron thought he could keep UK at the heart of Europe. And seven years later here we are... :(
    I remain to be convinced that actually happened, although I can fully believe Cameron's response if it did.

    Anyone have any actual evidence of this?
    I've had a brief look and I can't find any. It's something I remember, but I don't know if it's something I remember happening or something I remember reading. Combined with more and more sources vanishing behind paywalls and Google's increasingly unhelpful algorithm I can't say yea or nay. If I find anything that looks like evidence I will let you know.
    Don't worry.

    Even if it didn't happen it would have happened if anyone had thought to do it at the time.

    Is that an example of a post-truth world or a post-modern world or post something else ?
    Unknown. I am aware of confabulation or fabulation, where one's memories are assembled from bits and pieces to make a coherent thread, regardless of whether that thread actually represents events or even happened. I try to get round this by seeing not just if I remember something, but whether I remember remembering it. But backing it up with "research" is getting more difficult - that bit about Google getting worse and paywalls removing info is true - and in order to prove/disprove it means that I will have to do something like getting books out of the library. Which is time-consuming.

    So I'm glum. :(
    Don't worry, in a few months you won't remember being glum. Or at least you'll have no memory of remembering it. Reasons to be cheerful.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,574
    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:


    viewcode said:



    viewcode said:




    What was the "conservative" option to disengage with the EU given it had taken a "conservative" attitude to steadily ratcheting up integration over several decades to arrive at such a decidedly objectionable position to so many Conservatives?

    The rather bleak answer is that (IIRC) when Jean-Claude Juncker offered to David Cameron that the UK be moved to a newly-made up outer rim position, giving the UK much if not all of what it wanted, Cameron said no. Cameron thought he could keep UK at the heart of Europe. And seven years later here we are... :(
    I remain to be convinced that actually happened, although I can fully believe Cameron's response if it did.

    Anyone have any actual evidence of this?
    I've had a brief look and I can't find any. It's something I remember, but I don't know if it's something I remember happening or something I remember reading. Combined with more and more sources vanishing behind paywalls and Google's increasingly unhelpful algorithm I can't say yea or nay. If I find anything that looks like evidence I will let you know.
    Don't worry.

    Even if it didn't happen it would have happened if anyone had thought to do it at the time.

    Is that an example of a post-truth world or a post-modern world or post something else ?
    Unknown. I am aware of confabulation or fabulation, where one's memories are assembled from bits and pieces to make a coherent thread, regardless of whether that thread actually represents events or even happened. I try to get round this by seeing not just if I remember something, but whether I remember remembering it. But backing it up with "research" is getting more difficult - that bit about Google getting worse and paywalls removing info is true - and in order to prove/disprove it means that I will have to do something like getting books out of the library. Which is time-consuming.

    So I'm glum. :(
    Don't worry, in a few months you won't remember being glum. Or at least you'll have no memory of remembering it. Reasons to be cheerful.
    :smiley:
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Stay well @viewcode, you're a decent chap - don't forget that. The glumness will pass I promise you that.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    EU citizens should not have the vote.
    But since it’s a Telegraph story I’m gonna ignore it.
This discussion has been closed.