Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.
But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.
*If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.
Johnson's delusion that he is wholly innocent of Partygate lawbreaking and that he is the Messiah (as opposed to a very naughty boy) when it comes to delivering Conservative winning elections is absurd narcissism. His ascension to Leader/PM could well destroy the Conservative Party. He has already changed it beyond recognition, and not in a good way.
I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless a centrist one nation Conservative Party would be gratefully accepted by a majority of voters of all colours. Johnson isn't the man to lead the party in this direction. I am not sure who does.
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.
You are assuming Boris' score was frozen in aspic. It was likely to have plummeted with all the scandals. At least Rishi is credible and is likely outscoring what Boris would be getting now if he were allowed to carry on.
And regardless Boris had to go because of all the scandals regardless of his poll scores. There is such a thing as morals.
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
Though the great man is betting E/W:
"It’s always possible for Labour to lose the election."
FWIW I guess that the election will have Labour about 5-10 percentage points ahead of Conservatives, with the result given these figures depending on the degree of tactical voting and, especially, Scotland.
I don't believe Meeks is hedging with that sentence at all. It is a point of fact, that I for one couldn't disagree with.
Not obvious why Putin would want to get rid of Lukashenko, although I don't claim to read Putin's mind.
I think Moscow wants to annex Belarus - more of an Austrian style Anschluss rather than the Barbarossa style Ukraine invasion. Luka quite likes his role as international statesman. Perhaps he didn’t like the idea of just becoming a regional governor.
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.
But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.
*If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.
Johnson's delusion that he is wholly innocent of Partygate lawbreaking and that he is the Messiah (as opposed to a very naughty boy) when it comes to delivering Conservative winning elections is absurd narcissism. His ascension to Leader/PM could well destroy the Conservative Party. He has already changed it beyond recognition, and not in a good way.
I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless a centrist one nation Conservative Party would be gratefully accepted by a majority of voters of all colours. Johnson isn't the man to lead the party in this direction. I am not sure who does.
Given that Blair only became an MP in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015, the next Conservative Prime Minister might not be on the candidates list yet. Frankly, it might be the best way to answer the "what did you do in the great shambles, Daddy?" question.
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.
But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.
*If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.
Johnson's delusion that he is wholly innocent of Partygate lawbreaking and that he is the Messiah (as opposed to a very naughty boy) when it comes to delivering Conservative winning elections is absurd narcissism. His ascension to Leader/PM could well destroy the Conservative Party. He has already changed it beyond recognition, and not in a good way.
I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless a centrist one nation Conservative Party would be gratefully accepted by a majority of voters of all colours. Johnson isn't the man to lead the party in this direction. I am not sure who does.
Given that Blair only became an MP in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015, the next Conservative Prime Minister might not be on the candidates list yet. Frankly, it might be the best way to answer the "what did you do in the great shambles, Daddy?" question.
Hague 1989 probably deserves an honourable mention too.
The winning Tory party of the future tries to appeal to voters under the age of 90. Housebuilding would be a good start
Focusing on the needs of voters rather than enriching themselves, their friends, relatives and donors on a hitherto never seen before industrial scale would help too.
""Humans are a bit boring - it will be like, goodbye!" That's the personal prediction - that artificial intelligence (AI) will supplant humans in many roles - from one of the most important people you've probably never heard of.
Emad Mostaque is the British founder of the tech firm, Stability AI. It popularised Stable Diffusion, a tool that uses AI to make images from simple text instructions by analysing images found online."
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
The Tory pitch will have to be that ”only the people that led you into this almighty complicated mess can ever find the way out of it”
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
The Tory pitch will have to be that ”only the people that led you into this almighty complicated mess can ever find the way out of it”
There is a line in the Italian Job from mafia boss Altabani which might be appropriate for the Conservative Government, I hope so, " they planned this jam, they must have planned a way out of it"
Some years back the Israelis destroyed a would be reactor site in Syria.
Russia air defence systems are extensively networked. People think the USSR as all primitive, but some of the technical ideas were well ahead - the automated swarm behaviour of groups of P-700 Granit ship attack missile for example.
It was said that the Israelis had hacked the air defence network (Russian supplied) and turned off portions of the system. It was also said, that as a near sarcastic act, they turned the system back on when they left Syrian airspace.
A hack at the level, would probably allow you to fiddle with the IFF systems. Perhaps make the system show friendlies as enemies? Then you just watch as your opponent restages the Battle of Barking Creek...
I was thinking about just that incident yesterday. There's very little in the public domain about such network warfare systems, it's one of those topics where you really can't get any detail at all.
I worked with a Russian guy who worked with the software for the P-700, back as a conscript who got himself into coding. Always weirded me out - Red Storm Rising and all that.
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.
The Boris fans refuse to connect the chaos that emerged after his ousting to him as well, even though the crisis that caused his ousting was, well, his own damn fault. That they shot themselves in the foot even more after that and so cannot recover doesn't alter that the reason they ditched him was his incompetence and corruption was setting them on a path where they were going to lose support - in their imaginations he would be operating with no problems whatsoever had he stayed in place, ignoring why he was removed in the first place, that he had proven he would stumble from self created crisis to self created crisis.
Fortunately for them, 2019 Boris lives on forever with no changes in their heads.
Yep, it looks very much like Labour are going to go into the next election on a platform - if you ignore their rhetoric and a few eye-catching but token policy flourishes in areas like green energy - of managing the existing state of affairs less incompetently than the Tories. They're going to go our of their way to change as little as possible.
Your march Left is heartening to see. I can't reassure you totally, since I don't know for sure, but my sense is Starmer is all about derisking the GE as far as he possibly can, and that once in power (assuming he does win) he'll prove a bit more radical than you think. So don't write him off comrade.
That's exactly what I keep warning of on here: he's saying what he needs to say to get in.
Others say it's the usual Tory scare tactics relating to a Labour leader in opposition.
But, look at what his own side say - like your good self - and the evidence at how he behaved to his own base once he won the Labour leadership election.
You don't know what you'll get with SKS.
Cheer up, flag shagging may become a protected characteristic.
There's no 'patronising contempt' from me, it's just that I don't like to see the Union Jack all over the place. It lowers the tone.
It "lowers the tone".
Jesus. It's the flag of your f-ing country.
The only possible explanation for this is intellectual snobbery: you think you're above having any form of group social identity (save that of your education and values) and look down contemptuously on those that do.
It really isn't that. There's a place for our national flag. Big international sports events, for example, flagship (pun not meant) government buildings. But I don't want to see it as a common feature of life, always behind politicians when they speak, on hats and tee shirts and umbrellas, in municipal premises, in shops, people flying it in their houses and gardens, flags flags flags all over the place. That gives me the willies. I find it tacky at best and at worst rather sinister.
Absolutely. Nationalism, like religion, is fine in moderation: it is often a force for good and provides people with a sense of belonging, shared values and comfort. But it can also be a force for terrible evil when it gets out of hand.
Yes, it's terribly evil when Mrs. Biggins hoists one in her garden.
But the need to display the flag that prominently does indicate an insecure need to define an ‘us’ and a ‘them’ that can be manipulated in dangerous ways.
We all have this need, but it’s not always healthy.
Many things are worth worrying about for where they could lead, but that doesn't mean we should overly worry at the first hint.
One flag in the garden does not signify someone in imminent danger of nationalist manipulation. If anything, getting worried by the mere flying of a flag as if there is a major risk that it signifies such a thing seems counterproductive to me. It's not like the infamous Emily Thorberry house in terms of 'That's a bit excessive'. Most people don't fly, I don't, but I don't think most people would assume that level is something to worry about.
Unless it was an English flag. I know several people who say if they see an English flag they assume the person flying it is racist. Sadly it's reputation is pretty shot with some.
Just caught up - kle4 your post has changed my view - on reflection I agree with you - thanks.
Changing your mind after reading something? You'll never make it in this political atmosphere
Just read Tim Marshall's The Future of Geography about the geopolitics of space. Quite a bit thinner than some of his other books, and more of a potted history of the space programmes of all countries that have gotten involved with some politics attached, but he is a very entertaining and engaging writer, so well worth a read.
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
The Tory pitch will have to be that ”only the people that led you into this almighty complicated mess can ever find the way out of it”
In fairness that is the pitch of any government on its last legs. Sometimes put as 'no time for amateurs/inexperienced people', a la Brown.
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.
But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.
*If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.
Johnson's delusion that he is wholly innocent of Partygate lawbreaking and that he is the Messiah (as opposed to a very naughty boy) when it comes to delivering Conservative winning elections is absurd narcissism. His ascension to Leader/PM could well destroy the Conservative Party. He has already changed it beyond recognition, and not in a good way.
I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless a centrist one nation Conservative Party would be gratefully accepted by a majority of voters of all colours. Johnson isn't the man to lead the party in this direction. I am not sure who does.
I'd probably have slightly less of an issue with Johnson's stubbornness were he not always prone to aggrandizing and vomit inducing theatricality about his total innocence, as if the very idea he could ever do anything wrong - even when shown and being forced to admit to breaking rules - is an affront and personal betrayal from anyone who dare mention it. I'd have been much more on board with a admission that they didn't pay much attention to the precise rules because they were focused on running the bloody country in a decrepid office building, so sorry but not a big deal.
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
The story underneath is hilarious
"Nasty Sunak forced Big Strong Boris to raise taxes"
I would laugh, but it seems to have become a depressingly accepted premise that Boris as PM had no control over the Chancellor he picked (to be a yes man let's not forget, after the previous one quit), and he was totally against his own policies for years apparently - or had some kind of really really late epiphany coincidentally just as he was being forced out.
He's completely reinvented his own premiership's economic policy, and 100 MPs buy it hook line and sinker.
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
The Tory pitch will have to be that ”only the people that led you into this almighty complicated mess can ever find the way out of it”
In fairness that is the pitch of any government on its last legs. Sometimes put as 'no time for amateurs/inexperienced people', a la Brown.
“We’ve fucked up big time and left a terrible mess. This is no time for a novice.”
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
It's very odd: there aren't any obvious votes in it, and (lest we forget) it's not like EU citizens (other than the Irish and the Maltese) had a vote in our General Elections in the past.
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
He is. I liked this bit: ...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
The Tory pitch will have to be that ”only the people that led you into this almighty complicated mess can ever find the way out of it”
In fairness that is the pitch of any government on its last legs. Sometimes put as 'no time for amateurs/inexperienced people', a la Brown.
“We’ve fucked up big time and left a terrible mess. This is no time for a novice.”
I don't know how often it works, but people do try it! I suppose they could try to be positive and ask for people to let them 'finish the job', but recent events may make people think the job is demolishing the country or covering it with poo.
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
It's very odd: there aren't any obvious votes in it, and (lest we forget) it's not like EU citizens (other than the Irish and the Maltese) had a vote in our General Elections in the past.
Surely most EU citizens who live in the UK aren't going to vote Tory though, are they?
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
It's very odd: there aren't any obvious votes in it, and (lest we forget) it's not like EU citizens (other than the Irish and the Maltese) had a vote in our General Elections in the past.
I wonder if there is currently any country which allows all permanent residents of age to vote. I know there are some countries which have limited arrangements like we have with Ireland - Portugal & Brazil, for example.
Comments
I am not a Conservative voter, nonetheless a centrist one nation Conservative Party would be gratefully accepted by a majority of voters of all colours. Johnson isn't the man to lead the party in this direction. I am not sure who does.
And regardless Boris had to go because of all the scandals regardless of his poll scores. There is such a thing as morals.
Of the 2 bookies favourites, I would go for Finland.
Well, until you got convicted.
The flute-playing person of restricted height is just a bonus.
Emad Mostaque is the British founder of the tech firm, Stability AI. It popularised Stable Diffusion, a tool that uses AI to make images from simple text instructions by analysing images found online."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65582386
I liked this bit:
...Much has rightly been said and written about Labour’s lack of a clear prospectus. For all that, Labour has spent much more time articulating the vision that it will put to the country at the next election than the Conservatives have. What on earth are the Conservatives going to offer as their programme for government at the next election? I pose the question as an exercise for the reader: so far as I’m aware, Rishi Sunak hasn’t said a peep on the subject...
Hidden depths.
I am a big fan.
Talk about a passive-aggressive sulk.
Lithuanian lady. Why hello.
Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday
Good.
It's an international competition.
Fortunately for them, 2019 Boris lives on forever with no changes in their heads.
I haven't been watching, was the French one in French? I seem to recall a bit of a stink when they went English once.
Courtesy Flanders and Swan
I think we're a bit unusual in that regard in fairness.
"Nasty Sunak forced Big Strong Boris to raise taxes"
He's completely reinvented his own premiership's economic policy, and 100 MPs buy it hook line and sinker.
Or may be this will be a reciprocal deal with the EU so that UK citizens in Europe get to vote too?
This year is back to normal for us I think…