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A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,669
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
    Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

    It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.
    Actually, I think they (we) have far more in common than they think. But inches of difference of opinion become miles of principled ocean, largely down to ego.
    I'm not sure how much a residual member of the Tory left - one of those not already run out of town in 2019 - would actually have in common with an odious creature such as GBeebies host Jacob Rees-Mogg, but what do I know?
    Bigger question- who is left on the Conservative left? For all Sunak and Hunt are abused by proper right wingers, they are both conventional Thatcherites.

    Thought experiment. Somehow, a voice from God tells the Conservatives to tack back to the centre and calm down on Europe. Today. How do they even begin to fill a Cabinet? Labour's job post-Corbyn was a doddle by comparison.

    And talking of tack...
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Hey Siri, show me how to do clickbait headlines.

    Is this the first example of someone banned not for a post, but a header?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,411
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
    They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

    The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
    Electronic warfare is a decent bet as well, it's clear from the successful missile attack yesterday that Ukraine has new toys nobody told about.
    Some years back the Israelis destroyed a would be reactor site in Syria.

    Russia air defence systems are extensively networked. People think the USSR as all primitive, but some of the technical ideas were well ahead - the automated swarm behaviour of groups of P-700 Granit ship attack missile for example.

    It was said that the Israelis had hacked the air defence network (Russian supplied) and turned off portions of the system. It was also said, that as a near sarcastic act, they turned the system back on when they left Syrian airspace.

    A hack at the level, would probably allow you to fiddle with the IFF systems. Perhaps make the system show friendlies as enemies? Then you just watch as your opponent restages the Battle of Barking Creek...
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Despite Conservative gains in voting intention, Sunak’s personal approval is still declining.

    46% disapprove, while 26% approve, leaving Sunak with a net approval of -19%. His net approval is down 1% compared to our last poll.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460707057647656

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460710434013193

    Starmer’s approval also took a hit this week.

    35% disapprove, while 30% approve. This leaves the Labour leader with a net approval of -5%, down 2% from a fortnight ago.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460713714073600

    Our Best PM question stays still, with Starmer up by 1 percentage point from last fortnight.

    Starmer leads Sunak by 3%. This figure has been relatively stable as of late, though Starmer has been making some marginal gains.

    When it comes to the economy, Labour is the more trusted party.

    Labour is favoured in each aspect of the economy we prompted, even leading on reducing the UK’s national debt.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460716855611394

    Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

    Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

    *I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.
    Peterborough??
    He's from Chesterfield and a fan I believe.
    So the owls in his avatar are real owls, that you find down a hole in the dark, not Sheffield Wednesday?
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,474
    We are not going to rejoin. The price will always be unacceptable.

    Andy_JS said:

    When does Eurovision start?

    8pm - five minutes to go!
    I am ensuring I watch 0 minutes of it.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,208
    IanB2 said:

    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
    Sorry @MoonRabbit

    Please accept my apology
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,208
    IanB2 said:

    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
    I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labour

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    glwglw Posts: 9,740

    Some years back the Israelis destroyed a would be reactor site in Syria.

    Russia air defence systems are extensively networked. People think the USSR as all primitive, but some of the technical ideas were well ahead - the automated swarm behaviour of groups of P-700 Granit ship attack missile for example.

    It was said that the Israelis had hacked the air defence network (Russian supplied) and turned off portions of the system. It was also said, that as a near sarcastic act, they turned the system back on when they left Syrian airspace.

    A hack at the level, would probably allow you to fiddle with the IFF systems. Perhaps make the system show friendlies as enemies? Then you just watch as your opponent restages the Battle of Barking Creek...

    I was thinking about just that incident yesterday. There's very little in the public domain about such network warfare systems, it's one of those topics where you really can't get any detail at all.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    No enthusiasm for Labour but Labour hasn't lead on the economy for over a decade.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,761
    That is a superb performance by your team. Just imagine if swingback were included it would be single figures...oh wait it already is and it's still 14.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited May 2023
    IanB2 said:

    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
    As in hee hee heee, one of UKs emerging psephological wunderkids wuz right guessing the Opinium movement. Again.

    The last one clearly looked like the wonky sample needing correcting. They have corrected it and gained some. That’s because it’s swing back adjusted, finding a lot of Tory don’t know and their methodology to be consistent must add % on as expected swingback.

    However, unfortunate I am calling it for poor Opinium, since they made this methodology change early last year, we have now come to think of 24 as like 1997, where usual swingback rules don’t apply, and extraordinary stay at home takes place instead.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Graham Norton is actually hosting (with the three shouty women).
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,761

    IanB2 said:

    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
    I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labour

    The locals suggest that is at least a little less true than it once was.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/nicholastyrone/status/1657458827934007297

    These people are dangerously deluded. How could they look at five years of Corbynism and go "yes let's copy that please?"

    I suspect some would think that going full Corbyn styling (if not in policy) would not work, but if they're going to lose anyway may as well make themselves feel better about things. Whereas the true Corbynite was much more optimistic about things (2017 was a victory, and all that).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    ping said:

    I’m on Ukraine & Croatia to win.

    Croatia top 3/5/10.

    Small stakes. I have a terrible betting record for EV, which I fully suspect will continue, tonight.

    I hope Ukraine win with a hilariously overpowered public vote again, so that hopefully there are some Eurovision 'purists' out there who get annoyed that it was not about the music.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Poe Poe Poe!!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Graham Norton is actually hosting (with the three shouty women).

    Shouty woman 3 was given the "Shame" bell when she left GOT....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
    They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

    The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
    Shooting down that many of their own aircraft would be hugely impressive in a way.

    Like that battle that was supposed to have taken place when an Austrian army defeated itself before the enemy Turks arrived.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Starting with Wifey's fav song.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    This is terrible lol, so it will probably win
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    The blonde looks OK :)
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
    “new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.“

    Think again. New governments get at least 2 or 3 years grace simply blaming everything on the previous government, before “when will you deliver” kicks in.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    Punishing yourself with karaoke ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    Nigelb said:

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    Punishing yourself with karaoke ?
    The only people who got punished were the ones who heard me karaoke.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    So much for free speech absolutism.

    Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

    Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

    I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.
    Sadly not, I know next to nothing about Turkish politics.
    Not a thread, but I'll be following it and will aim to post useful links.
    Apparently it's bad news for Syrian refugees in Turkey whoever wins.

    But an interesting test - Erdogan is authoritarian but hasn't secured political omnipotence, so while as an outsider he doesn't look inclined to accept a loss (even 'proper' democracies are not above that anymore), voulf he force the issue.


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    NeilVW said:

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    This didn’t have quite the same impact as Nick Palmer’s revelation, somehow. 😀
    That's because you all know that I'm not exactly innocent.

    FYI

    I really didn't hire them, I just like to show off that I know the plural of dominatrix is dominatrices.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    The blonde looks OK :)
    The beluga whale? 🫣
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,405
    NeilVW said:

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    This didn’t have quite the same impact as Nick Palmer’s revelation, somehow. 😀
    Nice use of the plural form though.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    The blonde looks OK :)
    The beluga whale? 🫣
    Sorry, I meant the Edgar Allen Poe blonde.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,761
    I don't think the record that whoever performs second won't win will be troubled today.
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,233
    edited May 2023
    Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)


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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    I'm guessing this Swiss guy didn't enjoy being conscripted.
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025
    FPT:
    kle4 said:

    maxh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    viewcode said:

    I suppose one way to deal with the red Tory patter is to lean right into it.


    Perhaps we owe @bigjohnowls an apology... :(
    Yep, it looks very much like Labour are going to go into the next election on a platform - if you ignore their rhetoric and a few eye-catching but token policy flourishes in areas like green energy - of managing the existing state of affairs less incompetently than the Tories. They're going to go our of their way to change as little as possible.
    Your march Left is heartening to see. I can't reassure you totally, since I don't know for sure, but my sense is Starmer is all about derisking the GE as far as he possibly can, and that once in power (assuming he does win) he'll prove a bit more radical than you think. So don't write him off comrade.
    That's exactly what I keep warning of on here: he's saying what he needs to say to get in.

    Others say it's the usual Tory scare tactics relating to a Labour leader in opposition.

    But, look at what his own side say - like your good self - and the evidence at how he behaved to his own base once he won the Labour leadership election.

    You don't know what you'll get with SKS.
    Cheer up, flag shagging may become a protected characteristic.


    There's no 'patronising contempt' from me, it's just that I don't like to see the Union Jack all over the place. It lowers the tone.
    It "lowers the tone".

    Jesus. It's the flag of your f-ing country.

    The only possible explanation for this is intellectual snobbery: you think you're above having any form of group social identity (save that of your education and values) and look down contemptuously on those that do.
    It really isn't that. There's a place for our national flag. Big international sports events, for example, flagship (pun not meant) government buildings. But I don't want to see it as a common feature of life, always behind politicians when they speak, on hats and tee shirts and umbrellas, in municipal premises, in shops, people flying it in their houses and gardens, flags flags flags all over the place. That gives me the willies. I find it tacky at best and at worst rather sinister.
    Absolutely. Nationalism, like religion, is fine in moderation: it is often a force for good and provides people with a sense of belonging, shared values and comfort. But it can also be a force for terrible evil when it gets out of hand.
    Yes, it's terribly evil when Mrs. Biggins hoists one in her garden.
    But the need to display the flag that prominently does indicate an insecure need to define an ‘us’ and a ‘them’ that can be manipulated in dangerous ways.

    We all have this need, but it’s not always healthy.
    Many things are worth worrying about for where they could lead, but that doesn't mean we should overly worry at the first hint.

    One flag in the garden does not signify someone in imminent danger of nationalist manipulation. If anything, getting worried by the mere flying of a flag as if there is a major risk that it signifies such a thing seems counterproductive to me. It's not like the infamous Emily Thorberry house in terms of 'That's a bit excessive'. Most people don't fly, I don't, but I don't think most people would assume that level is something to worry about.

    Unless it was an English flag. I know several people who say if they see an English flag they assume the person flying it is racist. Sadly it's reputation is pretty shot with some.
    Just caught up - @kle4 your post has changed my view - on reflection I agree with you - thanks.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    So far these have all been terrible.

    If Mae remembers how to sing she might get a top 10 place.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868
    Our troops are advancing in two directions in the suburbs of #Bakhmut. In the city itself, the situation is more complicated, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said.

    Our defenders are destroying the enemy and have already taken many prisoners.

    https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1657452636004556802

    Some claimed combat footage around Bakhmut.
    https://twitter.com/soeren_herbst/status/1657447881463193601

    A lot seems to have happened today.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,400

    @NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.

    It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.

    Can you relink?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Poe Poe Poe!!

    It should be “who the ****”

    GF is watching it - and there is something to be said for a trashy pop night out - but I’m not in the mood. My Balls of Carthage concept dinner flopped. Might have stirred in too many figs and dates. I’m fearing being on the Tablets Of Moses by tomorrow morning.

    I’m now putting cams on and curl up and watch a film or something.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008

    @NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.

    It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.

    Can you relink?
    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70c
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)

    The picture is truly disturbing, but as a Norfolk MP at least it got the number of fingers right for a change
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868
    AFU have successes in the Bakhmut direction -
    Klishchievka, the following were destroyed:
    ▪️Deputy Commander of 2AK Colonel.
    ▪️Commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade Colonel.
    ▪️Chief of Staff of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade Colonel.

    https://twitter.com/leshysforrest/status/1657444065539915776
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,233
    algarkirk said:

    Dialup said:

    Today we saw the real beginnings of "Starmerism" which is an ideology that sits somewhere between Blairism and Wilsonism.

    On one issue there is a need to take sides. Wilson, under pressure, avoided Viet Nam. Blair, under pressure, didn't avoid Iraq. I hope Sir K is broadly Wilsonian.

    You don't however get credit for the disasters you averted.

    Kier is more and more reminding me of a 1970s Tory, I have to admit.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
    “new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.“

    Think again. New governments get at least 2 or 3 years grace simply blaming everything on the previous government, before “when will you deliver” kicks in.
    That wasn't the case for Thatcher's first administration of 1979-83, Heath's administration of 1970-1974, Cameron's administration of 2010-15 or Wilson/Callaghan's administration of 1974-1979.

    The poor economic situation they all presided over saw the main opposition party take the lead in polls within a year of the new government entering office
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    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2023
    Ukraine “televote winner” @5/1 looks like value, to me.

    I’ve had a small punt.

    Based on my appalling EV betting record, you’d be well advised not to follow me in!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.

    Songs are crud.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Dialup said:

    Despite Conservative gains in voting intention, Sunak’s personal approval is still declining.

    46% disapprove, while 26% approve, leaving Sunak with a net approval of -19%. His net approval is down 1% compared to our last poll.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460707057647656

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460710434013193

    Starmer’s approval also took a hit this week.

    35% disapprove, while 30% approve. This leaves the Labour leader with a net approval of -5%, down 2% from a fortnight ago.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460713714073600

    Our Best PM question stays still, with Starmer up by 1 percentage point from last fortnight.

    Starmer leads Sunak by 3%. This figure has been relatively stable as of late, though Starmer has been making some marginal gains.

    When it comes to the economy, Labour is the more trusted party.

    Labour is favoured in each aspect of the economy we prompted, even leading on reducing the UK’s national debt.

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460716855611394

    Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told

    “Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told”

    This graph though, I won’t ask you to explain, but with this firm Starmer’s approval had been relentlessly on the slide since last October, and still sliding despite everything else.

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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 731
    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)


    Nice pair of chops on her.

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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,400
    Nigelb said:

    Huge (judging by the explosions) Ukrainian ammo dump appears to have been destroyed today.

    Early in the morning today, Russian kamikaze drones attacked Khmelnytskyy (Ukraine's west)

    Reportedly, a Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed. At least 21 civilians have been injured

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657443786564280322

    There was a suggestion in the replies that it was an old fuel dump - very easy to geolocate and identify but not of much significance

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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,866

    Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.

    Songs are crud.

    If you'd sat through the Semi-finals (like I did) you'd know this already.

    All the songs range from okay to poor. Some of the weakest somehow got through the semi-final (Croatia was terrible).

    It's pure pop trash.
    I liked Austria..... this French effort seems okay too.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    UK song has best "bop" characteristics, all down to Mae's singing now.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.

    The blonde looks OK :)
    The beluga whale? 🫣
    Sorry, I meant the Edgar Allen Poe blonde.
    I know. So did I.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Ce n'est pas mauvais!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094

    Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.

    Songs are crud.

    If you'd sat through the Semi-finals (like I did) you'd know this already.

    All the songs range from okay to poor. Some of the weakest somehow got through the semi-final (Croatia was terrible).

    It's pure pop trash.
    I liked Austria..... this French effort seems okay too.
    Sure, but I work long hours during the week and that would have been very difficult.

    Not sure I can be arsed staying to the end if this is the standard.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,474

    Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.

    She will be saying that for probably every single entry.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Does "Break a broken heart" count as tautology?
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    pingping Posts: 3,805
    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.

    I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.

    I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,736

    Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.

    She will be saying that for probably every single entry.
    Poland the best so far.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    There's a kids Eurovision?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,736

    There's a kids Eurovision?

    Reminds me of Mini-pops, one of the original C4 shows, which unfortunately mostly had an audience of paedos.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    There's a kids Eurovision?

    Yep :)
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    I thought the Spanish song was actually quite good.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    ohnotnow said:

    Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)


    Isn't she opening new steak markets there?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    IanB2 said:

    “He”?

    Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
    I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labour

    The locals suggest that is at least a little less true than it once was.
    How do you deduce that, my dear Sherlock, from an unchanged vote share?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Loreen channelling "The Winner Takes It All"?
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    This is the hot favourite.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    How is this favourite?

    It's a She-Edward Scissorhands trapped in an IKEA four-poster showroom light-bed.
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    gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 507
    Degrading. I can't think this can win.
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    gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 507
    You don't have to be woke to think this is inappropriate in 2023.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.

    I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.

    I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
    Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.

    So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,761
    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    I genuinely cannot see Johnson as the answer to, well anything.

    Whereas I accept vast swathes of what we used to quaintly term the "working class" would return him to Downing Street in a heartbeat, even vaster swathes of one nation Conservatives hate the ground he walks on. So Johnson retains some otherwise lost seats in the RedWall whilst the BlueWallers in their masses turn red, yellow and green.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,321
    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.

    But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.

    *If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    @NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.

    It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.

    Can you relink?
    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70c
    That’s a great read.

    And I’d love the last bit - that anyone who was passionate about Brexit will forever be tainted, even within the Tories - to come true.

    But if you wanted a TLDR from all of that, it would still be: ” It’s always possible for Labour to lose the election.”
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.

    I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.

    I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
    Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.

    So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    Err, no.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 731

    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    I genuinely cannot see Johnson as the answer to, well anything.

    Whereas I accept vast swathes of what we used to quaintly term the "working class" would return him to Downing Street in a heartbeat, even vaster swathes of one nation Conservatives hate the ground he walks on. So Johnson retains some otherwise lost seats in the RedWall whilst the BlueWallers in their masses turn red, yellow and green.
    The Tories can win without the Red Wall, as they did in 2015. But they needed to wipe out the LDs to do it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.

    I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.

    I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
    Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.

    So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    Err, no.
    If Boris were fresh and had never been tested in the field, it might be true.

    Unfortunately, he has, and he's been found out.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407
    He did drink the tea
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    edited May 2023
    Cicero said:

    Self declared President of Belarus, Oleksander Lukashenka is in hospital in Miensk.

    The pillars of Putinism are clearly wobbling this weekend. If Russia attempts to seize Belarus as some kind of compensation for its failure in Ukraine, it is quite likely to spark an all-out rebellion.

    Times suddenly got interesting again in Belarus after three years of crack downs and oppression.

    Rada of the Belarus Democratic Republic, still the longest-serving government-in-exile (since 1919).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rada_of_the_Belarusian_Democratic_Republic
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Let's hope Lukashenko is either assassinated or dies.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Nice to see mithral chain mail getting an outing with Italy....
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    I like Estonia.

    She can sing and it's quite a nice song too.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094

    Nice to see mithral chain mail getting an outing with Italy....

    Looks like he's been shopping in the women's clothing of Next.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    edited May 2023

    @NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.

    It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.

    Can you relink?
    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70c
    A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.
    Though the great man is betting E/W:

    "It’s always possible for Labour to lose the election."


    FWIW I guess that the election will have Labour about 5-10 percentage points ahead of Conservatives, with the result given these figures depending on the degree of tactical voting and, especially, Scotland.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Estonian lady looks OK :)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,208
    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today

    "It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."

    OR

    @implausibleblog
    Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"

    Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."

    Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A



    Only one of them is right...

    Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.

    I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.

    I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
    Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.

    So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    No they didn't
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,400
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
    They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

    The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
    Electronic warfare is a decent bet as well, it's clear from the successful missile attack yesterday that Ukraine has new toys nobody told about.
    With all the publicity given to the Storm Shadow (including Americans said how effective they are) I wonder whether the Americans are sneaking in something even sexier under the cover.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Cha! Cha! Cha!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    Jesus Christ.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    It's the day-glo Blackadder series 1 extra for Finland....

    This will be huge.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    This must be a joke.
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    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 647
    I think Finland might win.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Halfway 13 of 26 songs sung!
This discussion has been closed.