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A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    I think it's jury only. Public vote will be reported in aggregate at the end
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    With Graham Norton presenting this part of the show, couldn't we have had ChatGPT and a voice synthesiser doing Terry Wogan?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1657488045623443460

    Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Good.

    That could be a big political mistake. It's more toxic than promising to bring back EU movement beause it goes to the heart of how we define the demos.
    It's very odd: there aren't any obvious votes in it, and (lest we forget) it's not like EU citizens (other than the Irish and the Maltese) had a vote in our General Elections in the past.
    Surely most EU citizens who live in the UK aren't going to vote Tory though, are they?
    I'm thinking short-term. There's an election in 18 months time, why would Labour propose any policy that would horrify a lot of people, while not enthusing even their own supporters.
    It's bad politics. Don't understand the decision.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Isn't Hannah Waddingham fabulous? I had never heard of her until a few weeks ago

    Never watched Game of Thrones then? Shame....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No, these are just jury votes. They do the public vote afterwards in one go.
    How many was it Ukraine got last year with that, 400 or so?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Only TWO measly points from Ireland!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Eurovision No Contest.....
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Is Loreen = Keir? I'm not sure!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Makes it much more exciting though. You can’t be sure who’s won till the end.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No, but it is Liverpool, so all sorts of voting inconsistencies could be on the cards.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. Just jury.
    Welcome new poster 👍
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No, but it is Liverpool, so all sorts of voting inconsistencies could be on the cards.
    As it’s UK, they must use voter ID.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Not sure we are going to win this time
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 582

    Isn't Hannah Waddingham fabulous? I had never heard of her until a few weeks ago

    I saw her at Chichester years ago in "Kiss Me Kate."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1657488045623443460

    Labour to give EU citizens the vote #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Good.

    Surely we are going to hear lots of complaints about trying to fix the electorate?

    Or may be this will be a reciprocal deal with the EU so that UK citizens in Europe get to vote too?
    Starmer knows he will shed votes in office so is planning now to expand his coalition.
    If he wants to stay PM for evah he is best going with PR.

    P S. He hasn't won yet.
    What makes you say that?

    I'd say it'd make it easier for him to lose office.
    Uncoalitionable Tories.
    You're not thinking straight.

    Remember: whatever happens 40% of the country are centre-right and there are very many more mechanisms that can tell under PR.

    Lib Dems and Greens won't be willing Labour lackies for long and, even if they are, in totality won't maintain 60% of the vote in aggregate either.
    Plus RefUK would win 10-15% of MPs under PR and be likely coalition partners for the Tories
    Yes but probably at the expense of the Tories.
    Not necessarily, in 2015 UKIP got 13%, as Labour got only 30% and the Tories 37% much of the UKIP vote came from Labour's traditional working class vote. They are the type of voters who voted UKIP in 2015, Labour or the Tories in 2017, for Boris and the Conservatives in 2019 and are now voting Labour again but could easily go to RefUK with PR
    I am aware of all of that, but there was something unique happening during the Brexit years. That is not to say that won't happen again, but I believe Conservatives will not be in Government for all but 24 of the next 71 (going on 73) years
    Immigration remains a big issue, even more so in terms of non EU migration, post Brexit and that is where RefUK could squeeze under PR like rightwing European populist parties do. Squeezing the same type of white working class voters who might vote for Meloni or Le Pen or the AfD or indeed Trump in the US and voted for UKIP and Boris here
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
    This is Eurovision. Sense doesn't come into it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Was yesterday's Judges show different to tonight's TV show? Some odd votes so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    The UK's presenter from 1982 is still around and taking an interest in the show.

    "Jan Leeming
    @Jan_Leeming

    Thank you very much. Am now getting quite excited and a teeny bit nervous. Been out and about in gloriously sunny Liverpool. Amazing that some people have recognised my voice as I was talking to friends. 😀"

    https://twitter.com/Jan_Leeming/status/1657358953104244738
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    4 points from Finland!
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
    Seems better to me for the public to have the ‘final say’, although mathematically it makes no difference,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002

    ...

    Sorry to interrupt the Eurovision song contest but Police Scotland investating 1,000 alleged cases of fraud

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1657496055620009984?t=Xl1oBAPp29aXGWugOefsLQ&s=19

    It's OK, it's only the (Scottish) Mail, so probably bearing little relevance to reality.
    Why would you seek to play down something as potentially serious as this ?
    BigG. you always get very excited when your political foes appear to be in trouble, remember Currygate? And for example on the flipside you played down Partygate at its height.

    I accept the SNP are in trouble, but I suspect the Mail are gilding this particular lily. I don't believe Labour, or the Conservatives will benefit as much as we are told, from the SNP's travails.
    At my age I rarely get excited about anything and I never played down partygate

    Indeed Patersongate, wallpapergate and partygate ended any support I had for Johnson and have been vocally opposed to him ever since

    I post stories that may have an impact on politics and this story on the SNP is one of them

    My wife who is a Scot and I are committed Unionist and the travails of the SNP have been a very unexpected bonus
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No, but it is Liverpool, so all sorts of voting inconsistencies could be on the cards.
    Labour HOLD!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    ...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087
    So the top two in Eurovision are a lady with enormous fingernails and a lady with a unicorn horn.

    Combined with the triumph of la Mordaunt, is there some Freudian desire to be gored to death?
  • FossFoss Posts: 694
    So far it's not a great night for the Germans.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Isn't Hannah Waddingham fabulous? I had never heard of her until a few weeks ago

    Never watched Game of Thrones then? Shame....
    Ted Lasso!

    If you look at her CV it’s nothing but “Doctors 1 episode - Maroon Poo” and then all of a sudden, big time. Brilliant!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Is Mae = Keir?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Nobody loving ze Germans
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    Is Eurovision still going on ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
     Are the Russians interfering with these votes?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    Is Eurovision still going on ?

    Scheduled till midnight.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. Just jury.
    Welcome new poster 👍
    No. Don’t encourage whatever’s going on. It’s already been a long day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002

    Nobody loving ze Germans

    Is this raw politics?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
    This is Eurovision. Sense doesn't come into it.
    I'm wondering why they brought back the jury at all, because it was just public vote in around 2005 IIRC.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    I think only Johnny Logan has won twice previously 1980 1987?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Loreen winner in 2012
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Labour leader accused of wanting to rig general elections by letting migrants who live in UK and pay tax have a say

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1657512766477942785

    Did they actually read this? It sounds great!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    The UK's presenter from 1982 is still around and taking an interest in the show.

    "Jan Leeming
    @Jan_Leeming

    Thank you very much. Am now getting quite excited and a teeny bit nervous. Been out and about in gloriously sunny Liverpool. Amazing that some people have recognised my voice as I was talking to friends. 😀"

    https://twitter.com/Jan_Leeming/status/1657358953104244738

    They interviewed her on the programme earlier.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    Did it work? Good evening, glad to be back.

    Some ideas:
    4CorrectHorseBat
    CorrectHorseBat4
    CorrectHorseB4t
    I can assure you I am the CorrectHorseBattery
    Did Dialup get turned into Pedigree Chum? 😀
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    Nobody loving ze Germans

    It wasn't very good...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    nico679 said:

    Votes for 16 and 17 year olds seems to be an olive branch to the left . I’m sure EU nationals are well aware of which party were handmaidens of a despicable campaign against them and will vote accordingly .

    Does "the left" traditionally care about 16- and 17-year-olds? I can't see this as an olive branch to anyone. It might be a cynical calculation that they'd vote Labour.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Can we gives points to the judge from Iceland?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917

    I think only Johnny Logan has won twice previously 1980 1987?

    Yep, the only one to win twice.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    nico679 said:

    Votes for 16 and 17 year olds seems to be an olive branch to the left . I’m sure EU nationals are well aware of which party were handmaidens of a despicable campaign against them and will vote accordingly .

    Does "the left" traditionally care about 16- and 17-year-olds? I can't see this as an olive branch to anyone. It might be a cynical calculation that they'd vote Labour.
    They will vote green on mass
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited May 2023

    With Graham Norton presenting this part of the show, couldn't we have had ChatGPT and a voice synthesiser doing Terry Wogan?

    For all the love for the sainted Sir Terence, the plain facts are that Norton is better at hosting Eurovision and chat shows, and Chris Evans got more listeners.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    One massive change to Eurovision - they have dropped the French language. Even the French judge had to speak English...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Foxy said:

    Nobody loving ze Germans

    It wasn't very good...
    It was a crap attempt at Sigue Sigue Sputnik and Dead or alive. Frankly staggered how Sweden are running away with it as was every ordinary club tune from late 90’s early 2000’s sung by a reverse drag of Steve Tyler from Aerosmith who needs a serious manicure.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
    This is Eurovision. Sense doesn't come into it.
    It's probably a technical thing where they have to get the computer to aggregate the votes from the different voting methods, and so they need the time where the jury votes are handed out to get that all sorted. The jury votes are much simpler to apportion.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    With Graham Norton presenting this part of the show, couldn't we have had ChatGPT and a voice synthesiser doing Terry Wogan?

    For all the love for the sainted Sir Terence, the plain facts are that Norton is better at hosting Eurovision and chat shows, and Chris Evans got more listeners.
    Hats off to Norton for double duty, presenting and commentating.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Do any ordinary people say Czechia instead of Czech Republic?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. Just jury.
    Welcome new poster 👍
    No. Don’t encourage whatever’s going on. It’s already been a long day.
    Nothing going on Moon. I really am back! :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Finland shot out from 4s to 9s on Betfair a few minutes ago, now back to 5-6. Sweden out to 1.2. I'm not watching Eurovision though.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    I thought we would finish top 10 but clearly that's not going to happen 😡
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    1 point from Denmark!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    ...

    One massive change to Eurovision - they have dropped the French language. Even the French judge had to speak English...

    I remember the days when Katie Boyle got the Eurovision gig because she spoke French.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Andy_JS said:

    The UK's presenter from 1982 is still around and taking an interest in the show.

    "Jan Leeming
    @Jan_Leeming

    Thank you very much. Am now getting quite excited and a teeny bit nervous. Been out and about in gloriously sunny Liverpool. Amazing that some people have recognised my voice as I was talking to friends. 😀"

    https://twitter.com/Jan_Leeming/status/1657358953104244738

    They interviewed her on the programme earlier.
    Oh right. I only started watching about 30 minutes ago.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Hannah = 👍
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Andy_JS said:

    Do any ordinary people say Czechia instead of Czech Republic?

    Makes more sense IMO.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    The Allisons came second in 1961. They were schoolboys, and one was in my school at the same time as me.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    4 points from Sweden!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Israel is popular in the betting.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    edited May 2023
    Mel is doing quite well at the Graham Norton commentator schtick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are these the jury and public votes combined?

    No. This is the farcical bit. The jury votes take ages, then at the end they just say, "Right, we're adding the public vote in one dump and therefore the entire table changes."
    Surely it would make sense to do it the other way round? Jury votes all in one go, and public votes more slowly.
    This is Eurovision. Sense doesn't come into it.
    It's probably a technical thing where they have to get the computer to aggregate the votes from the different voting methods, and so they need the time where the jury votes are handed out to get that all sorted. The jury votes are much simpler to apportion.
    There’s a Dominion/Fucker Carlson joke in there, but OGH doesn’t need the legal hassle.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087
    Stay classy, Moscow.

    Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Ternopil as the country's Eurovision act - who hail from the city - were about to perform, reports say.

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1657506787828936705
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Very pleased to see that most of Europe were angered by the UK entrant’s anti Tory tweets and punished her accordingly. Nothing to do with her not being a great live singer with a run of the mill bar/club tune.

    But the Swedish song really? Super average. And cut your nails you freak.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Not sure we are going to win it on the public vote
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    boulay said:

    Very pleased to see that most of Europe were angered by the UK entrant’s anti Tory tweets and punished her accordingly. Nothing to do with her not being a great live singer with a run of the mill bar/club tune.

    But the Swedish song really? Super average. And cut your nails you freak.

    Lets hope she gets swamped by votes for Belgian Boy George and Cha Cha Cha Finland.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Sweden 340 points, nearly double the next country.

    But it wasn't THAT good!
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 582
    Who was it on here who was tipping Croatia to win?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    SandraMc said:

    Who was it on here who was tipping Croatia to win?

    ŠČ!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited May 2023

    Sweden 340 points, nearly double the next country.

    But it wasn't THAT good!

    Waterloo was

    To be honest I have not watched Eurovision for years
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Televoting scores time!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    Andy_JS said:

    Do any ordinary people say Czechia instead of Czech Republic?

    Ordinary people say neither, since it doesn't crop up often. It's a bit jargony, like using "Anglosphere". However it has become more popular in the last twenty years.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    This counting system rocks, IMO.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    They should have had a hologram Terry Wogan doing this. Programmed by ChatGPT. "Do Terry Wogan pissed at the end of Eurovision"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    lololol
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Oh dear...
  • FossFoss Posts: 694
    Fair.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    ONLY NINE extra points for the UK! 24 total!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    What was the problem with Mae Muller's performance?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703

    They should have had a hologram Terry Wogan doing this. Programmed by ChatGPT. "Do Terry Wogan pissed at the end of Eurovision"

    Would we have known the difference?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    Andy_JS said:

    What was the problem with Mae Muller's performance?

    Technically not great, apparently. But I am tone-deaf.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Andy_JS said:

    What was the problem with Mae Muller's performance?

    She really wasn’t very good.

    Second to bottom is undeserved but she wasn’t going to win with that performance or come anywhere near.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Andy_JS said:

    What was the problem with Mae Muller's performance?

    The song was ok but it needed massive lungs live to make it work. And nobody needs a whine about how she hates her ex, massive downer.

    If only we had been more supportive of Ukraine we would have done better.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The UK song was decently written, the problem is that Mae Muller is a terrible live artist. This was clear in the semi finals.

    If the UK is to win, the song writing talent is now good - after being terrible for a long time - but they must find an artist that can actually perform well live.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Finland 376 extra points!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152

    The UK song was decently written, the problem is that Mae Muller is a terrible live artist. This was clear in the semi finals.

    If the UK is to win, the song writing talent is now good - after being terrible for a long time - but they must find an artist that can actually perform well live.

    How's the dog?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Sam Ryder seems to have been an accident in terms of live performance at this point. Even though the team that wrote the song were the same as this year.

    With a decent artist this year would have been good for us IMHO.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    The UK song was decently written, the problem is that Mae Muller is a terrible live artist. This was clear in the semi finals.

    If the UK is to win, the song writing talent is now good - after being terrible for a long time - but they must find an artist that can actually perform well live.

    How's the dog?
    She's going really well thanks, just been sleeping all day. But she had a bit of a walk around the living room where I've put her box.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Sweden win
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Boooooooo
    Cha cha cha
    cha cha cha
    cha cha cha
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Yes the Loreen 👍👍👍👍
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    Sweden win!

    Loreen joins Johnny Logan in winning two Eurovisions!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The UK song was decently written, the problem is that Mae Muller is a terrible live artist. This was clear in the semi finals.

    If the UK is to win, the song writing talent is now good - after being terrible for a long time - but they must find an artist that can actually perform well live.

    We'd have won last year but for the unique circumstances!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Well done Sweden, not as good as last year for the UK but we avoided null points. Night all
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Sweden may have won it twice. But that Finnish entry will live forever in Top 20 WTF moments in Eurovision.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,917
    edited May 2023
    Sweden 583
    Finland 526
    Israel 362
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    GN all 👍
This discussion has been closed.