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A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

The shift towards remaining in Eurovision has come from both sides of the Brexit debate2016 Remain votersRemain in Eurovision: 43% (+11 from 2019)Leave Eurovision: 7% (-11)2016 Leave votersRemain in Eurovision: 24% (+10)Leave Eurovision: 20% (-14)https://t.co/WiAQaA2iNG

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Comments

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,612
    This topic is boring. Can't we carry on complaining how crap privatized railways are?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    Evening all :)

    My specialist subject will be responding to the previous thread.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    The railways are crap.

    British Rail was also crap.

    Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,457
    I can confirm that Croatia is well worth an each way bet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,812
    CatMan said:

    This topic is boring. Can't we carry on complaining how crap privatized railways are?

    It makes a change from people complaining how crap nationalised health care is.

    Perhaps organisations tend to become crap when they're effective monopolies.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,211
    So the polling suggests about twice as many people would vote on whether to stay in Eurovision than actually voted in the local elections.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,111
    Finland the ones to beat I hear from my eurovision loving acquaintances
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,295
    FPT: StillWaters - Thank you for the book recommendation. And, in return, I'll give you one: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never: Why enviromental alarmism hurts us all".
    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/apocalypse-never-michael-shellenberger/1134858807?ean=9780063001695

    rcs1000, and anyone else interested in the subject, can find much in there about California politics. (I haven't read Shellenberger's book on San Francisco.)
  • TresTres Posts: 2,111
    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,691
    So in 2019, there was a 52:48 poll in favour of leaving Eurovision? (Please someone tell me I've got that wrong.)

    I remember 2019 being bonkers, but I've kinda blotted out how bonkers it was.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    On topic (crap trains being too depressing to keep harping on about):

    In a field with several pretty decent female pop acts (Sweden, Israel, the UK, and Norway and Czechia aren't too bad either,) it's very possible that they all split each others' votes and someone else comes through the middle. That leaves this as Finland's event to lose.

    I can understand why TSE mentioned Croatia but they're probably a bit too mental, even for Eurovision. This year's dark horse is the French effort.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,359
    edited May 2023

    So in 2019, there was a 52:48 poll in favour of leaving Eurovision? (Please someone tell me I've got that wrong.)

    I remember 2019 being bonkers, but I've kinda blotted out how bonkers it was.

    Yes, it was 52:48 in favour of leaving Eurovision.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,427
    Wow, what a lead for Remain! Can Leave turn that around before the vote? When is it again?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,812
    Dialup said:

    The railways are crap.

    British Rail was also crap.

    Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

    How would you describe a non crap railway ?

    How would it differ in prices, sources of income, availability of services, levels of comfort ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    Even Tory voters would now vote to stay in Eurovision then 25% to 19%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,359
    edited May 2023
    Tres said:

    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

    Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

    *I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of British coal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,427
    Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,359
    edited May 2023
    Looks like Liz Truss has gone rogue regarding her trip to Taiwan.

    BIB - This is the kind of bitchiness I approve of.

    Until now, the response of the government has been to say it would not get involved in the “independent travel decisions of a private citizen who is not a member of the government”.

    This weekend, however, a Foreign Office source said: “The government has had a policy on Taiwan which is longstanding and remained unchanged for the entire time Liz Truss was foreign secretary and prime minister.”

    Others in government are less willing to bite their tongue: “She seems to have waited until she was neither of those things before trying to change things.”

    A close ally of another ex-Tory prime minister said: “She seems to believe she is indestructible, despite having actually been destroyed.”

    Some put this down to Truss’s resilience and a lack of interest in being loved. “She’s a political cockroach,” said a semi-admiring former minister, “which does at least mean she will survive the nuclear war that she seems intent on starting.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-and-the-menace-of-the-back-seat-prime-ministers-2dkmrbv37
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310
    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,427
    CatMan said:

    This topic is boring. Can't we carry on complaining how crap privatized railways are?

    Or flags. Fair amount of complacency about this imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310

    So in 2019, there was a 52:48 poll in favour of leaving Eurovision? (Please someone tell me I've got that wrong.)

    I remember 2019 being bonkers, but I've kinda blotted out how bonkers it was.

    Yes, it was 52:48 in favour of leaving Eurovision.
    It was the last gasp of the forces of anti-woke.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Today we saw the real beginnings of "Starmerism" which is an ideology that sits somewhere between Blairism and Wilsonism.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,111

    Tres said:

    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

    Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

    *I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.
    Peterborough??
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,359
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

    Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

    *I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.
    Peterborough??
    He's from Chesterfield and a fan I believe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310
    So much for free speech absolutism.

    Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

    Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528
  • TresTres Posts: 2,111

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

    Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

    *I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.
    Peterborough??
    He's from Chesterfield and a fan I believe.
    Oh, I'd assumed Owls was a Sheffield Wednesday ref.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,457

    FPT: StillWaters - Thank you for the book recommendation. And, in return, I'll give you one: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never: Why enviromental alarmism hurts us all".
    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/apocalypse-never-michael-shellenberger/1134858807?ean=9780063001695

    rcs1000, and anyone else interested in the subject, can find much in there about California politics. (I haven't read Shellenberger's book on San Francisco.)

    I completely agree with you regarding environmental alarmism.

    I support measures to reduce our use of fossil fuels, and the long-term transition to a renewable future.

    But Extinction Rebellion and their ilk are deluded. It's *incredible* what humanity has achieved in the last 10 or 20 years. Solar and wind are now the cheapest power sources. Battery technology is immeasurably improved.

    I bought the Tesla Roadster back in 2010. No range. No storage. Terribly slow charging.

    Now, I have an electric pickup truck that charges in 30 minutes, and which can take the family, with all our equipment, up to the mountain and back again.

    It's extraordinary progress to a renewable future that is being achieved by giving people a better version of their life, not a worse.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,584
    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    Surprised the watermark on that video didn’t get someone banned.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    I agree with the final sentence. Lord alone knows what sort of deranged far right psychopath the rump Tory membership will inflict upon us once they're released to indulge their basest instincts unchecked.

    The real worry is that an incoming Labour Government has no effective program of reform, is overwhelmed by the scale of the problems it faces, and ends up being turfed out in favour of the aforementioned Tory nutcase at the election after next - which will leave us in an even more dire predicament than we were under Boris Johnson.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    I'm going to go back to my default position of being a minority of one and posit the thought based only on my experience the trains aren't that bad.

    I've never minded who runs them - I do think there are unnecessary layers of complexity and the economic model of most of the operators was broken by the pandemic. I am glad to see, about a year after I first suggested it, LNER are considering moving to midweek engineering works rather than upset the lucrative and profitable weekend leisure traffic.

    I will confess I travel around London and it may be the services in the north are still suffering from the Harrying by Duke William but overall I find the trains much more comfortable. The timetables have been created with so much redundancy it's almost impossible for them to run late under normal conditions.

    Reliable? Yes, pretty much - there can be problems and what they do now is if a train is running late they cut out a number of stops which meant last time I came back from Winchester, I ended up on late running train which cut out stops at Basingstoke, Woking and Clapham Junction which annoyed passengers who wanted those stations but for me I got a straight run back home which helped reduce the late running - we know doing that reduces fines paid by the Train Operators.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,574
    rcs1000 said:

    I can confirm that Croatia is well worth an each way bet.

    In the next Balkan war?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,584
    Nigelb said:

    So much for free speech absolutism.

    Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

    Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

    I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    edited May 2023
    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,574

    FPT: StillWaters - Thank you for the book recommendation. And, in return, I'll give you one: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never: Why enviromental alarmism hurts us all".
    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/apocalypse-never-michael-shellenberger/1134858807?ean=9780063001695

    rcs1000, and anyone else interested in the subject, can find much in there about California politics. (I haven't read Shellenberger's book on San Francisco.)

    Thanks - I have close to 3 yards of books to get through…

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,359
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    So much for free speech absolutism.

    Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

    Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

    I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.
    Sadly not, I know next to nothing about Turkish politics.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,051
    Happy for Notts County. Criminal not to get promoted with that points total. Wouldn’t have wanted to be one of their fans given the way they did it tonight though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605

    Hey Siri, show me how to do clickbait headlines.

    You got me.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    pigeon said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    I agree with the final sentence. Lord alone knows what sort of deranged far right psychopath the rump Tory membership will inflict upon us once they're released to indulge their basest instincts unchecked.

    The real worry is that an incoming Labour Government has no effective program of reform, is overwhelmed by the scale of the problems it faces, and ends up being turfed out in favour of the aforementioned Tory nutcase at the election after next - which will leave us in an even more dire predicament than we were under Boris Johnson.
    Did Blair have "an effective program for reform" in 1997? My recollection was he was more about a continuation of the post-Thatcher settlement with some refinements round the edges - that reassured the vast majority who supported said settlement. There was not the slightest hint of upturning the Thatcher changes and turning the clock back to 1979.

    Starmer's problem is he probably could turn the clock back to 2010 and, apart from EU membership, nothing would be different.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 43,419
    kinabalu said:

    Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

    Yes, that's worth a few quid. It's not the worst song that we have entered over the years!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    @NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.

    It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    rcs1000 said:

    I can confirm that Croatia is well worth an each way bet.

    And what does that bet look like? Top 4?

    Hope so, since that's what I've done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    LDs and Remainers care most about Eurovision.

    27% of LDs care a great deal or fair amount about the singing contest, compared to only 23% of Labour voters and just 14% of Conservative voters. Leavers care least, just 13% care a great deal or fair amount about it as opposed to 24% of Remainers who care about Eurovision
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/survey-results/daily/2023/05/11/e057e/2
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    kinabalu said:

    Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

    Yes, Mae Muller can count herself very hard done by if she doesn't make top ten given the competition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605

    Looks like Liz Truss has gone rogue regarding her trip to Taiwan.

    BIB - This is the kind of bitchiness I approve of.

    Until now, the response of the government has been to say it would not get involved in the “independent travel decisions of a private citizen who is not a member of the government”.

    This weekend, however, a Foreign Office source said: “The government has had a policy on Taiwan which is longstanding and remained unchanged for the entire time Liz Truss was foreign secretary and prime minister.”

    Others in government are less willing to bite their tongue: “She seems to have waited until she was neither of those things before trying to change things.”

    A close ally of another ex-Tory prime minister said: “She seems to believe she is indestructible, despite having actually been destroyed.”

    Some put this down to Truss’s resilience and a lack of interest in being loved. “She’s a political cockroach,” said a semi-admiring former minister, “which does at least mean she will survive the nuclear war that she seems intent on starting.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-and-the-menace-of-the-back-seat-prime-ministers-2dkmrbv37

    "She seems to believe she is indestructible, despite having actually been destroyed."

    That sums her up rather well.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,877
    edited May 2023
    I think Truss going to Taiwan is great. It’s the most deniable form of recognition possible. Let the obviously nuts PM who was kicked out of office inside 6 weeks (was it only 6 weeks? I forget..) go, she can say whatever she wants & it’s all completely unofficial & the government can repudiate all of it.

    Boiling the frog on recognising Taiwan starts somewhere & this is as good a place as any.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

    I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Mae was terrible at the rehearsals. Last place is not out of the question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,316
    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,238
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

    Yes, Mae Muller can count herself very hard done by if she doesn't make top ten given the competition.
    For her the future is being a winning answer on pointless in a couple of years time. ‘Name a British Eurovision act in t(e last twenty years ?’
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    Hunt should, if he can possibly get away with, claim that the green shoots of economic recovery are to be seen - then abolish IHT (or, at any rate, hike the threshold to something like £5m so it's abolished de facto,) and cut another penny off the basic rate, in the next Budget. The Government can then go to the country claiming that Labour will kill the recovery and hike taxes again. A cynical and dishonest prospectus, but hey, this is politics and the Tories have nothing else left.

    Sunak made a serious error of judgment in prioritising the small boat problem, because he can't do anything useful about it.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Taz said:

    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

    Yes, Mae Muller can count herself very hard done by if she doesn't make top ten given the competition.
    For her the future is being a winning answer on pointless in a couple of years time. ‘Name a British Eurovision act in t(e last twenty years ?’
    We did this already. She's on a song with Sigala, she'll be okay.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,648
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    If PB Tories are anything to go by Labour can spend the next 13 years blaming everything on the previous government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 37,972

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
    They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

    The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    Surprised the watermark on that video didn’t get someone banned.
    Blimey, didn’t spot that. Definitely NSFPB.
    But it does appear as though either someone’s messing with Russia’s IFF, or Ukraine have sneaked some longer range SAMs near the front,
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

    I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.
    It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310
    Phil said:

    I think Truss going to Taiwan is great. It’s the most deniable form of recognition possible. Let the obviously nuts PM who was kicked out of office inside 6 weeks (was it only 6 weeks? I forget..) go, she can say whatever she wants & it’s all completely unofficial & the government can repudiate all of it.

    Boiling the frog on recognising Taiwan starts somewhere & this is as good a place as any.

    Despite serious misgivings about Truss, I tend to agree.

    This was a great line, though.
    “She’s a political cockroach,” said a semi-admiring former minister, “which does at least mean she will survive the nuclear war that she seems intent on starting.”
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,122
    The Guardian has just discovered that tuition fees are a capped graduate tax:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/may/13/nurses-teachers-student-loan-reforms-biggest-squeeze
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    Before I screw up my Eurovision betting again, can someone please explain to me the rules again?

    I never bloody learn. Is it correct that:

    (1) The lengthy waits for each country to declare in turn are just the judges scores, which are 50% only
    (2) The public votes magically appear in a massive block right at the end

    I can't remember them ever announcing the number of public votes, or how they correlate to points, and I always struggle with estimating those - it's a proportional share of a fixed total of overall points, right?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,553
    SKS - "We are on track, on a path towards power but there is still more work to be done and the toughest part lies ahead."

    Plenty of lies ahead
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,310
    Huge (judging by the explosions) Ukrainian ammo dump appears to have been destroyed today.

    Early in the morning today, Russian kamikaze drones attacked Khmelnytskyy (Ukraine's west)

    Reportedly, a Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed. At least 21 civilians have been injured

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657443786564280322
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,316

    Before I screw up my Eurovision betting again, can someone please explain to me the rules again?

    I never bloody learn. Is it correct that:

    (1) The lengthy waits for each country to declare in turn are just the judges scores, which are 50% only
    (2) The public votes magically appear in a massive block right at the end

    I can't remember them ever announcing the number of public votes, or how they correlate to points, and I always struggle with estimating those - it's a proportional share of a fixed total of overall points, right?

    The number of points up for grabs in the public vote is the same as in the jury vote, but as you say, they just do a big reveal at the end in reverse order.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

    I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.
    It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?
    I'll repost my effort from lunchtime on this topic, if I may. I was responding to a question the gist of which was 'what will it take for you to believe that the Tories' support will actually collapse?':


    The Conservative Party merits being set on fire and thrown down a thousand foot mineshaft, immediately followed by a lengthy pour of quick setting cement. This does not mean it's going to happen. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31% of the vote, and we're dealing with an older electorate and a grey porridge of a Labour Opposition this time around.

    Besides, I know I keep coming back to this point ad nauseam, but it's only because I think it's very important: not nearly everyone is suffering from the current socio-economic car crash. There's a large cohort of Boomer homeowners - bought dirt cheap council houses under Thatcher, benefit from older style occupational pensions as well as the triple lock, altogether very comfortable - for whom the Conservatives have delivered in spades. Older Gen-Xers, who also managed to get on the property ladder when it was still fairly easy to do so, are coasting towards their own gold-plated retirements, and are looking forward to receiving both their triple locked pensions and enormous inheritances over the next 10-15 years, will also feel not wholly unsympathetic towards they who made all of this possible.

    We also have to remember that the electoral system itself favours the two large parties, because most voters who passionately hate one of the main parties will vote negatively for the other, even if they think it is rubbish, because they view the alternative as even worse. There's a substantial number of Never Labour voters out there, and the polarising effects of Brexit and the Corbyn experiment will have increased their numbers.

    We may still be getting polls coming out with outrageous shares like Lab 51, Con 24, but come a GE the likelihood of anything like that is surely remote in the extreme?
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    SKS - "We are on track, on a path towards power but there is still more work to be done and the toughest part lies ahead."

    Plenty of lies ahead

    Jeremy Corbyn says he voted Remain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,051
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

    I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.
    It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?
    I'll repost my effort from lunchtime on this topic, if I may. I was responding to a question the gist of which was 'what will it take for you to believe that the Tories' support will actually collapse?':


    The Conservative Party merits being set on fire and thrown down a thousand foot mineshaft, immediately followed by a lengthy pour of quick setting cement. This does not mean it's going to happen. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31% of the vote, and we're dealing with an older electorate and a grey porridge of a Labour Opposition this time around.

    Besides, I know I keep coming back to this point ad nauseam, but it's only because I think it's very important: not nearly everyone is suffering from the current socio-economic car crash. There's a large cohort of Boomer homeowners - bought dirt cheap council houses under Thatcher, benefit from older style occupational pensions as well as the triple lock, altogether very comfortable - for whom the Conservatives have delivered in spades. Older Gen-Xers, who also managed to get on the property ladder when it was still fairly easy to do so, are coasting towards their own gold-plated retirements, and are looking forward to receiving both their triple locked pensions and enormous inheritances over the next 10-15 years, will also feel not wholly unsympathetic towards they who made all of this possible.

    We also have to remember that the electoral system itself favours the two large parties, because most voters who passionately hate one of the main parties will vote negatively for the other, even if they think it is rubbish, because they view the alternative as even worse. There's a substantial number of Never Labour voters out there, and the polarising effects of Brexit and the Corbyn experiment will have increased their numbers.

    We may still be getting polls coming out with outrageous shares like Lab 51, Con 24, but come a GE the likelihood of anything like that is surely remote in the extreme?
    Does a 1974 DOB count as an older Gen X? If so, I need to find out what I did wrong. I’m going to be working until 2044.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,813
    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

    Gas him in a chamber.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,316

    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

    Taken ill after visitng Moscow for the parade...
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 700

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    So much for free speech absolutism.

    Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

    Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.

    https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

    I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.
    Sadly not, I know next to nothing about Turkish politics.
    Not a thread, but I'll be following it and will aim to post useful links.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
    Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

    It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    Dialup said:

    Mae was terrible at the rehearsals. Last place is not out of the question.

    Oh dear.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,186

    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

    Taken ill after visitng Moscow for the parade...
    He drank the tea?

    Fool.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,584
    Nigelb said:

    Huge (judging by the explosions) Ukrainian ammo dump appears to have been destroyed today.

    Early in the morning today, Russian kamikaze drones attacked Khmelnytskyy (Ukraine's west)

    Reportedly, a Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed. At least 21 civilians have been injured

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657443786564280322

    People in the know seem to be saying this looks more like a fuel explosion (no secondary explosions, black smoke, huge immediate detonation). Let’s hope so: gas easier to replace than weapons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,813

    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

    Taken ill after visitng Moscow for the parade...
    He drank the tea, didn't he....?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    DougSeal said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

    18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

    I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

    As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

    The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

    I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

    Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

    If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas
    If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

    I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.
    It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?
    I'll repost my effort from lunchtime on this topic, if I may. I was responding to a question the gist of which was 'what will it take for you to believe that the Tories' support will actually collapse?':


    The Conservative Party merits being set on fire and thrown down a thousand foot mineshaft, immediately followed by a lengthy pour of quick setting cement. This does not mean it's going to happen. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31% of the vote, and we're dealing with an older electorate and a grey porridge of a Labour Opposition this time around.

    Besides, I know I keep coming back to this point ad nauseam, but it's only because I think it's very important: not nearly everyone is suffering from the current socio-economic car crash. There's a large cohort of Boomer homeowners - bought dirt cheap council houses under Thatcher, benefit from older style occupational pensions as well as the triple lock, altogether very comfortable - for whom the Conservatives have delivered in spades. Older Gen-Xers, who also managed to get on the property ladder when it was still fairly easy to do so, are coasting towards their own gold-plated retirements, and are looking forward to receiving both their triple locked pensions and enormous inheritances over the next 10-15 years, will also feel not wholly unsympathetic towards they who made all of this possible.

    We also have to remember that the electoral system itself favours the two large parties, because most voters who passionately hate one of the main parties will vote negatively for the other, even if they think it is rubbish, because they view the alternative as even worse. There's a substantial number of Never Labour voters out there, and the polarising effects of Brexit and the Corbyn experiment will have increased their numbers.

    We may still be getting polls coming out with outrageous shares like Lab 51, Con 24, but come a GE the likelihood of anything like that is surely remote in the extreme?
    Does a 1974 DOB count as an older Gen X? If so, I need to find out what I did wrong. I’m going to be working until 2044.
    The precise definition seems to vary depending on where you look, but I took it as encompassing people born between about 1965 and 1980. So, those born in the late Sixties will be getting the state pension in the early 2030s.

    Although the state pension is not, of course, the be all and end all of everything: as with their parents, a lot of these people will benefit from the tail end of final salary pension provision, and many will have had their fat inheritances or be getting them in the near future. If you've a final salary pension becoming payable from 60, and a quarter million already in the bank from your half-share of Mum & Dad's estate, you may not feel any particular motivation or need to work even for that long.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,813
    Dialup said:

    SKS - "We are on track, on a path towards power but there is still more work to be done and the toughest part lies ahead."

    Plenty of lies ahead

    Jeremy Corbyn says he voted Remain.
    Leaving open the possibility he also voted Leave.

    He spoilt his ballot.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 37,972

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
    Yes. And you know which Conservative faction has been the noisiest and pissiest? Brexiteers and the ERG. The side which defenestrated numerous Conservative leaders, and even PMs. The side which opted for something was was about as little-c conservative as Mao's red book.

    I have nothing but contempt for the ERGers and so-called 'Conservative' brexiteers. If they want to damage their own party, fair enough. But the damage they've done to the country is unforgivable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,813
    Reckon we will get some votes just for hosting Ukraine on the Mersey.

    In previous years, it was fun to give us a kicking. This time we are on the side of the Euro-angels.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,605
    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
    Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

    It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.
    Actually, I think they (we) have far more in common than they think. But inches of difference of opinion become miles of principled ocean, largely down to ego.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,589
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
    Of course but my central point remains - if improving the economy is seen as Sunak's best hope of success but Labour still win, Labour will then inherit a growing economy for which a) they will undoubtedly take credit and b) against which the Conservatives will be impotent in response.

    This was the position from 1997-99 when Brown continued the spending plans and policies he inherited from Ken Clarke which both maintained economic growth and spiked the Conservative guns completely. The economy continued to prosper and Labour took the benefit.

    The one main difference - I doubt Reeves will sign up as avidly as Brown to Jeremy Hunt's spending plan.

    It was an industrial dispute - the tanker driver strike - which allowed Hague to momentarily grab a lead in the polls for all the good it did him in 2001 when he returned a result basically as bad as John Major's four years earlier.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,177
    When does Eurovision start?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,505
    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has just discovered that tuition fees are a capped graduate tax:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/may/13/nurses-teachers-student-loan-reforms-biggest-squeeze

    That's something that has been said on here many times over the years.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

    So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
    Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

    It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.
    Actually, I think they (we) have far more in common than they think. But inches of difference of opinion become miles of principled ocean, largely down to ego.
    I'm not sure how much a residual member of the Tory left - one of those not already run out of town in 2019 - would actually have in common with an odious creature such as GBeebies host Jacob Rees-Mogg, but what do I know?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,952
    Andy_JS said:

    When does Eurovision start?

    In about ten minutes' time.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,505

    Nigelb said:

    There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

    https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
    This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

    The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.
    They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

    The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
    Electronic warfare is a decent bet as well, it's clear from the successful missile attack yesterday that Ukraine has new toys nobody told about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,186
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
    Of course but my central point remains - if improving the economy is seen as Sunak's best hope of success but Labour still win, Labour will then inherit a growing economy for which a) they will undoubtedly take credit and b) against which the Conservatives will be impotent in response.

    This was the position from 1997-99 when Brown continued the spending plans and policies he inherited from Ken Clarke which both maintained economic growth and spiked the Conservative guns completely. The economy continued to prosper and Labour took the benefit.

    The one main difference - I doubt Reeves will sign up as avidly as Brown to Jeremy Hunt's spending plan.

    It was an industrial dispute - the tanker driver strike - which allowed Hague to momentarily grab a lead in the polls for all the good it did him in 2001 when he returned a result basically as bad as John Major's four years earlier.
    Indeed, however unfortunately the restricted global supplies from the War in Ukraine and the after effects still of the Covid lockdowns means Sunak and Hunt despite their best efforts will not leave anything like the golden legacy Major and Clarke left for New Labour in 1997. Even if inflation falls a bit, it is still likely to be at record highs, with strikes and relatively low wages too for Starmer and Reeves to sort out, facing a choice of either further tax rises or spending cuts to get the finances in order and cut the still high deficit before they can focus on boosting growth again.

    Our economic growth and inflation still look more mid 1970s than mid 1990s and our deficit more 2010 than 1997
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Dialup said:

    Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

    For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

    Gas him in a chamber.
    This is wholly unacceptable. Whether it's a joke or not.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,361
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dialup said:

    The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

    I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

    I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

    Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

    I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
    That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

    The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

    So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
    Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

    Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

    Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
    Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

    If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

    A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
    Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

    If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

    Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
    Of course but my central point remains - if improving the economy is seen as Sunak's best hope of success but Labour still win, Labour will then inherit a growing economy for which a) they will undoubtedly take credit and b) against which the Conservatives will be impotent in response.

    This was the position from 1997-99 when Brown continued the spending plans and policies he inherited from Ken Clarke which both maintained economic growth and spiked the Conservative guns completely. The economy continued to prosper and Labour took the benefit.

    The one main difference - I doubt Reeves will sign up as avidly as Brown to Jeremy Hunt's spending plan.

    It was an industrial dispute - the tanker driver strike - which allowed Hague to momentarily grab a lead in the polls for all the good it did him in 2001 when he returned a result basically as bad as John Major's four years earlier.
    I think the situation is more like 1979 than 1997, although history never entirely repeats itself.

    It seems the Conservatives have lost all discipline after the very bad local election results. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/13/tory-anarchy-breaks-out-as-revolt-looms-on-brexit-laws
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    It starts at 8
  • pingping Posts: 3,723
    edited May 2023
    I’m on Ukraine & Croatia to win.

    Croatia top 3/5/10.

    Small stakes. I have a terrible betting record for EV, which I fully suspect will continue, tonight.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    https://twitter.com/nicholastyrone/status/1657458827934007297

    These people are dangerously deluded. How could they look at five years of Corbynism and go "yes let's copy that please?"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,489
    Andy_JS said:

    When does Eurovision start?

    8pm - five minutes to go!
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