Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
The point is that it establishes an expectation of the result. First, that can demoralise your opponents and cause them not to bother queuing for three votes to cast a supposedly futile vote. Second, when you underperform your polls you can claim that there has been electoral fraud.
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
You mean the whole point of the partisan Cowboy polls is to bastardise democracy?
Not just bastardise it but completely undermine it.
There should be laws against that sort of thing. In a democracy.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
I've just checked the counties. Most of the awaited votes are from counties favouring Hobbs. Unless Kari Lake does REALLY well in Maricopa, she will lose
That 5/1 on Hobbs, which I mentioned the other day, really was VALUE
Kudos for tipping against your crush but I'm sorry to report she remains a slight favourite to make it.
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Not sure if that is true now, 70% of Americans including 46% of Republicans say they could now vote for a gay President even if they are sceptical others would
I’m on record on here from time ago (and much mocked) for my view that neither Biden or Trumpton will stand. I still think that.
But, if Big Joe does stand I think he has a decent chance of reelection. He is one of those perennially underestimated people in world politics. The man who handed Trump’s arse to him should not be overlooked.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
I've just checked the counties. Most of the awaited votes are from counties favouring Hobbs. Unless Kari Lake does REALLY well in Maricopa, she will lose
That 5/1 on Hobbs, which I mentioned the other day, really was VALUE
Kudos for tipping against your crush but I'm sorry to report she remains a slight favourite to make it.
Local by-elections tomorrow as follows: Con defences in Braintree, Broxtowe, Burnley, Cannock Chase, and South Kesteven (x2); Ind defences in Braintree and East Devon; and Lib Dem defence in Kingston upon Thames.
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
thanks. 3.75 seems big for Rep if it's going to be very close.
I would agree with that. I might have a small nibble on Laxalt.
I would just add that all three results for the Senate are still possible: Georgia is likely headed to a run-off, and could go either way (albeit the Dems must be favourites) and Nevada is on a knife edge.
If the Republicans nab Nevada, then a win in the run-off hands them the Senate.
By contrast, if the postals get Cortez Mastro over the line in Nevada, and they win the run-off in Georgia, then they will have 51 seats.
And if the honours are split, then we're looking at a 50-50 Senate.
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Not sure if that is true now, 70% of Americans including 46% of Republicans say they could now vote for a gay President even if they are sceptical others would
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
Its main purpose in this case is to promote the narrative of betrayal and stolen elections. By making it seem like the GOP was a shoe in for all these seats it makes it much easier to convince people that the election must have been fraudulent when they don't win. It is an active plan by the Trumpite faction for promoting and justifying undemocratic solutions.
I can believe it. Not that they need any logic or evidence to make these claims.
True but I am implying a much greater degree of pre-meditation. This isn't just a case of them reacting badly to losses with wild claims, it is a purposeful attempt to undermine results before a single ballot is cast as a means of destabilising and discrediting the whole system.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Not sure if that is true now, 70% of Americans including 46% of Republicans say they could now vote for a gay President even if they are sceptical others would
And it's worth noting that exactly the same arguments were made about an African American President in 2008.
The big difference between the two is the Black vote which is core for the Democrats. It was said when Pete B ran for the nomination, his big problem was whether that constituency would vote for him. The feeling was they wouldn't.
Wisconsin still looks very tight. Are we certain of a GOP victory there? Presumably the areas left to count favour their candidate?
I also see we’re at the glacial stage of proceedings. Presumably Nevada are now on their regular “count two ballots and have a four hour break” cycle.
It's almost all Milwaukee to come, and that's heavily Democratic. But there's only 50,000 votes left and a 30,000 margin, so it's likely that Johnson hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
apologies for deleting my post to which u kindly replied. If Cortez is certain to lose there is £1000+ at 3.5 available on Laxalt on the exchange.
Still looks incredibly tight in Nevada. There are a few thousand at least rural votes out there and Laxalt still leads in Washoe.
One small caveat for Kelly (who I think wins). In 2020, when Fox called AZ, the consensus view was that as votes came in from Maricopa, Biden's lead would grow or at least stay stable in AZ - it actually shrank. Not sure whether there is a timing of precincts issue maybe .
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Not sure if that is true now, 70% of Americans including 46% of Republicans say they could now vote for a gay President even if they are sceptical others would
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Those first few days of a new crush are are just so emotional.
No, I'm an early adopter. Then I get bored. NEXT BIG THING
I thought that you believed that by Feb of next year we would all be vapourised in an all-encompassing global apocalypse? You even advised me not to book my next ski holiday, which I must say I declined to follow this advice on the assumption that the obvious cost saving might not benefit me anyway.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Here's what the Washington Post says about the Senate race in Wisconsin: "According to our model, Johnson is slightly favored to win, but Barnes still has a chance."
(I don't know the details of their modeling efforts, which rely on a sample of precincts, or what their track record is, if any.)
I’m on record on here from time ago (and much mocked) for my view that neither Biden or Trumpton will stand. I still think that.
But, if Big Joe does stand I think he has a decent chance of reelection. He is one of those perennially underestimated people in world politics. The man who handed Trump’s arse to him should not be overlooked.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
thanks. 3.75 seems big for Rep if it's going to be very close.
I would agree with that. I might have a small nibble on Laxalt.
I would just add that all three results for the Senate are still possible: Georgia is likely headed to a run-off, and could go either way (albeit the Dems must be favourites) and Nevada is on a knife edge.
If the Republicans nab Nevada, then a win in the run-off hands them the Senate.
By contrast, if the postals get Cortez Mastro over the line in Nevada, and they win the run-off in Georgia, then they will have 51 seats.
And if the honours are split, then we're looking at a 50-50 Senate.
My instinct would be to lay GOP exactly 51 seats, if such a bet exists - if they have 51 without Georgia, they probably win Georgia too; if they don't, blue money will flood the state exactly like in 2020.
Lol, NBC think there are 211,000 votes outstanding in Nevada.
I..... I am sceptical.
Given that many are postal votes, that are allowed four days to arrive at the count if postmarked on Election Day, how can anyone have an accurate number of outstanding ballots?
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
I have the perfect solution to increasing the nursing staff pay and comp: Reduce doctor's salaries and pensions in line with the average for such roles in Europe (excluding Switzerland) and pass on the savings to nursing and other non-medical staff. I am sure all doctors don't want to be greedy and take all the taxpayer funds for themselves surely?
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Well it's not quite as clear cut as that. Personally I'm totally happy with the UK position. But it's as arbitrary as any other. Abortion affects two lives, the mother and the child. At what point do the rights of the unborn child come into play? In the UK, we say at 24 weeks, on the grounds, I think, that before that the unborn child is not viable. Some would say at conception. Some might say once there is a heartbeat, or at birth, or any one of a number of other points. How do we determine the point at which society defends the rights of the abortee if jot democratically? The key to this battle is winning the argument of where a reasonable position lies, not in saying that there can be no argument.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
I have the perfect solution to increasing the nursing staff pay and comp: Reduce doctor's salaries and pensions in line with the average for such roles in Europe (excluding Switzerland) and pass on the savings to nursing and other non-medical staff. I am sure all doctors don't want to be greedy and take all the taxpayer funds for themselves surely?
Nice in theory, but Australia, NZ, and the Gulf countries are recruiting doctors on way above NHS pay grades and recognising qualifications.
OT. I thought PMQ's were interesting. I'm not sure that attacks on Sunak's wealth are a good idea. It suggested a thought out attack line which under the circumstances seemed unnecessary.
Starmer's got so much material using things Sunak's screwed up on he doesn't need to go after the personal stuff. I also think the kind of voters who might be impressed by this line of attack are ones that I'm hoping Labour can live without.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Opinion on The NYT Fox News:
The biggest winner of the midterm elections was without a doubt Governor Ron DeSantis, whose landslide victory in the state of Florida was breathtaking.
The biggest loser? Donald Trump, whose handpicked loyalist candidates in a number of races struggled to beat vulnerable Democrats. Once again, the former president may have cost Republicans control of the Senate, in a year when it was theirs to lose.
Many will conclude, on the basis of the midterm 2022 results, that the Republican Party is ready to move on, without Donald Trump as its leader. .
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Well it's not quite as clear cut as that. Personally I'm totally happy with the UK position. But it's as arbitrary as any other. Abortion affects two lives, the mother and the child. At what point do the rights of the unborn child come into play? In the UK, we say at 24 weeks, on the grounds, I think, that before that the unborn child is not viable. Some would say at conception. Some might say once there is a heartbeat, or at birth, or any one of a number of other points. How do we determine the point at which society defends the rights of the abortee if jot democratically? The key to this battle is winning the argument of where a reasonable position lies, not in saying that there can be no argument.
A well put post. If we followed the full logic of @BartholomewRoberts the mother should have the right to infanticide as her choice.
Russian media reporting Kirill Stremousov, the most prominent Russian-installed official in Kherson, has died in a “traffic accident”. Stremousov had become the civilian face of Russia’s occupation there. https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1590333310332375041/photo/1
I’m on record on here from time ago (and much mocked) for my view that neither Biden or Trumpton will stand. I still think that.
But, if Big Joe does stand I think he has a decent chance of reelection. He is one of those perennially underestimated people in world politics. The man who handed Trump’s arse to him should not be overlooked.
You think Trump won't even stand?
No. Either he’ll lose in the primaries or won’t even run.
Realise I’m a big hostage to fortune with that forecast, and there’s no money backing it up.
Russian media reporting Kirill Stremousov, the most prominent Russian-installed official in Kherson, has died in a “traffic accident”. Stremousov had become the civilian face of Russia’s occupation there. https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1590333310332375041/photo/1
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
thanks. 3.75 seems big for Rep if it's going to be very close.
I would agree with that. I might have a small nibble on Laxalt.
I would just add that all three results for the Senate are still possible: Georgia is likely headed to a run-off, and could go either way (albeit the Dems must be favourites) and Nevada is on a knife edge.
If the Republicans nab Nevada, then a win in the run-off hands them the Senate.
By contrast, if the postals get Cortez Mastro over the line in Nevada, and they win the run-off in Georgia, then they will have 51 seats.
And if the honours are split, then we're looking at a 50-50 Senate.
My instinct would be to lay GOP exactly 51 seats, if such a bet exists - if they have 51 without Georgia, they probably win Georgia too; if they don't, blue money will flood the state exactly like in 2020.
you can lay that but you'll only be getting around 1/8 so you'd want to be pretty damn certain.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
She's not "certain to lose".
Okay. Will you except probably lose then?
When she loses my original prediction of 1 a piece and 50 each will certainly be spot on, 100% - so you could accuse me of backing my own pre ordained script. But I’m not. I’m calling it solely on basis she doesn’t have enough Clark County votes to overturn 3%. If she did have enough votes left in her areas I would now change my original call of yesterday to Senate, a Democrat win.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Until birth?
The woman isn't pregnant after birth.
Arguably she would be if she were a kangaroo - but then she wouldn't be a woman anyway.
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
I have the perfect solution to increasing the nursing staff pay and comp: Reduce doctor's salaries and pensions in line with the average for such roles in Europe (excluding Switzerland) and pass on the savings to nursing and other non-medical staff. I am sure all doctors don't want to be greedy and take all the taxpayer funds for themselves surely?
Nice in theory, but Australia, NZ, and the Gulf countries are recruiting doctors on way above NHS pay grades and recognising qualifications.
For those who are prepared to emigrate. The reality is that GPs in particular are massively overpaid (and pensioned) in this country when compared to international norms. When you look at something such as a nationalised healthcare provision such as we have, that is unjustifiable for what are, in reality, the safest jobs in the universe. They won't countenance it of course, because they are greedy bastards, and if it was a choice of lower pensions for them and better pay for nurses they would choose the selfish option every time.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Until birth?
The woman isn't pregnant after birth.
Yes, I do realise that. I was just wondering if Bartholomew was taking the extremist position that abortion should be available to the pregnant woman, no questions asked, right up until birth.
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Not sure if that is true now, 70% of Americans including 46% of Republicans say they could now vote for a gay President even if they are sceptical others would
But isn't this bad for Pete? It says almost a third of the electorate (inc many who aren't committed Republicans) would rule him out because he's gay. If that's true (which I'd hope it isn't) he can't win the presidency surely?
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Well it's not quite as clear cut as that. Personally I'm totally happy with the UK position. But it's as arbitrary as any other. Abortion affects two lives, the mother and the child. At what point do the rights of the unborn child come into play? In the UK, we say at 24 weeks, on the grounds, I think, that before that the unborn child is not viable. Some would say at conception. Some might say once there is a heartbeat, or at birth, or any one of a number of other points. How do we determine the point at which society defends the rights of the abortee if jot democratically? The key to this battle is winning the argument of where a reasonable position lies, not in saying that there can be no argument.
In among all the mad electoral arguments, there’s some evidence that the overturning of Roe has actually turned a lot of Americans towards the discussion we see elsewhere in the world, where we talk about viability and fetal development.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Until birth?
The woman isn't pregnant after birth.
Yes, I do realise that. I was just wondering if Bartholomew was taking the extremist position that abortion should be available to the pregnant woman, no questions asked, right up until birth.
I believe he supports abortion up to the twelfth trimester.
Apparently Russian state media now reporting that the order to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro has been given. A degree of scepticism and nervousness on Ukraine War twitter as to whether this is a ruse of some sort.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Opinion on The NYT Fox News:
The biggest winner of the midterm elections was without a doubt Governor Ron DeSantis, whose landslide victory in the state of Florida was breathtaking.
The biggest loser? Donald Trump, whose handpicked loyalist candidates in a number of races struggled to beat vulnerable Democrats. Once again, the former president may have cost Republicans control of the Senate, in a year when it was theirs to lose.
Many will conclude, on the basis of the midterm 2022 results, that the Republican Party is ready to move on, without Donald Trump as its leader. .
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Until birth?
The woman isn't pregnant after birth.
Arguably she would be if she were a kangaroo - but then she wouldn't be a woman anyway.
I heard Trump call him 'De Sanctimonious'. I know it's cheap but it's one thing he and his team are very good at and they've nearly always got enough truth to be very effective weapons
I’m on record on here from time ago (and much mocked) for my view that neither Biden or Trumpton will stand. I still think that.
But, if Big Joe does stand I think he has a decent chance of reelection. He is one of those perennially underestimated people in world politics. The man who handed Trump’s arse to him should not be overlooked.
You think Trump won't even stand?
No. Either he’ll lose in the primaries or won’t even run.
Realise I’m a big hostage to fortune with that forecast, and there’s no money backing it up.
Ah ok. By "stand" I meant run for the GOP nomination. I'm pretty sure he'll do that but otherwise we're on a similar page. He's a no hoper for President and, like you, I can easily foresee the final slug-out featuring neither him nor Joe. But I DO have money on it. On the Trump angle anyway. Too much money really. The Big Short.
It's worse when the accusation comes from Boring Old Starmer. (Who has more toughness than you might think on first glance, and has efficiently dispatched the Loony Left. But "strong leader" isn't the first thing you think.)
BREAKING NEWS: The Royal College of Nursing, which represents hundreds of thousands of nurses in the UK, has voted to hold the first nationwide strike in its 106-year history.
I have the perfect solution to increasing the nursing staff pay and comp: Reduce doctor's salaries and pensions in line with the average for such roles in Europe (excluding Switzerland) and pass on the savings to nursing and other non-medical staff. I am sure all doctors don't want to be greedy and take all the taxpayer funds for themselves surely?
Nice in theory, but Australia, NZ, and the Gulf countries are recruiting doctors on way above NHS pay grades and recognising qualifications.
For those who are prepared to emigrate. The reality is that GPs in particular are massively overpaid (and pensioned) in this country when compared to international norms. When you look at something such as a nationalised healthcare provision such as we have, that is unjustifiable for what are, in reality, the safest jobs in the universe. They won't countenance it of course, because they are greedy bastards, and if it was a choice of lower pensions for them and better pay for nurses they would choose the selfish option every time.
I’ll agree with you entirely, that the NHS GP system is now totally unfit-for-purpose. Hospital doctors, on the other hand,do face international competition for their skills.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
We have the NHS and state pension dragons to feed. Until that changes any economic resilience investment will be viewed as a luxury.
Apparently Russian state media now reporting that the order to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro has been given. A degree of scepticism and nervousness on Ukraine War twitter as to whether this is a ruse of some sort.
There’s a Ukranian suspicion that this is a massive reverse Trojan horse, that there’s hundreds of booby-trapped locations and thousands of soldiers hiding in the city, waiting for the Ukranians to come back to try and take over. It’s not impossible that the plan is to nuke the city, or flood it by blowing the dam upstream of the river.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
We have the NHS and state pension dragons to feed. Until that changes any economic resilience investment will be viewed as a luxury.
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
She's not "certain to lose".
The opposite if anything per the betting.
But in your heart, with what’s at stake boiled down on this one, do you want to bet against the betting on this one? I’m very confident she has lost in my reading of it and 50/50 senate it will remain.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
I don't disagree with the intent, but I am skeptical that it will prove to be of good value for tax payers.
The Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill does not solve existing tensions (which remain unresolved in the courts) between the Gender Recognition Act 2004 (GRA) and the Equality Act 2010 (“the EqA”), writes barrister Amanda Jones.
The bill will introduce new conflicts with the EqA. The bill will also create a tangle of conflicts and anomalies between Scotland and the rest of the UK:
1. The EqA itself is a reserved matter; it cannot be amended or replaced by Scottish legislation; 2. The lawful sex of a person will be different in different parts of the UK; a person’s legal change of sex in Scotland will not be recognised in England, Wales or Northern Ireland; 3. A Scottish GRC will be inferior to a UK one. People might well need to obtain both; 4. The proposed amendments do not solve the above issues.
Instead of clarifying the law, the bill will create constitutional and legal complications that will not benefit trans people, and which will inevitably generate litigation.
OT. I thought PMQ's were interesting. I'm not sure that attacks on Sunak's wealth are a good idea. It suggested a thought out attack line which under the circumstances seemed unnecessary.
Starmer's got so much material using things Sunak's screwed up on he doesn't need to go after the personal stuff. I also think the kind of voters who might be impressed by this line of attack are ones that I'm hoping Labour can live without.
Red Wall Brexiteers.
The impossible dream, Roger. Regaining the "Red Wall" is at the heart of Starmer's path to power. It's all plotted out. Do not offend floating voters generally but above all make sure those seats lost in 2019 come back.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
We have the NHS and state pension dragons to feed. Until that changes any economic resilience investment will be viewed as a luxury.
The state pension dragon >> NHS pension dragon.
No, the NHS itself is a dragon, public sector pensions are the noose tied around the UK economy slowly choking us all to death.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Until birth?
The woman isn't pregnant after birth.
Arguably she would be if she were a kangaroo - but then she wouldn't be a woman anyway.
Hmm! I've seen at least one C19 Presbyterian evolutionist whose approach to original sin, IIRC, is very like Dawkins to the ethics of the Selfish Gene.
OT. I thought PMQ's were interesting. I'm not sure that attacks on Sunak's wealth are a good idea. It suggested a thought out attack line which under the circumstances seemed unnecessary.
Starmer's got so much material using things Sunak's screwed up on he doesn't need to go after the personal stuff. I also think the kind of voters who might be impressed by this line of attack are ones that I'm hoping Labour can live without.
Red Wall Brexiteers.
Red Wall Brexiteers are the voters Labour needs to win a majority, end of story. It's why there absolutely won't be any vote on rejoining the EU in Labour's first term.
The Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill does not solve existing tensions (which remain unresolved in the courts) between the Gender Recognition Act 2004 (GRA) and the Equality Act 2010 (“the EqA”), writes barrister Amanda Jones.
The bill will introduce new conflicts with the EqA. The bill will also create a tangle of conflicts and anomalies between Scotland and the rest of the UK:
1. The EqA itself is a reserved matter; it cannot be amended or replaced by Scottish legislation; 2. The lawful sex of a person will be different in different parts of the UK; a person’s legal change of sex in Scotland will not be recognised in England, Wales or Northern Ireland; 3. A Scottish GRC will be inferior to a UK one. People might well need to obtain both; 4. The proposed amendments do not solve the above issues.
Instead of clarifying the law, the bill will create constitutional and legal complications that will not benefit trans people, and which will inevitably generate litigation.
Hardly new. The various constituents of the UK were quite happy to legalise matters relating to (say) homosexuality, or civil partnerships, at different times, some in advance of others.
Apparently Russian state media now reporting that the order to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro has been given. A degree of scepticism and nervousness on Ukraine War twitter as to whether this is a ruse of some sort.
There’s a Ukranian suspicion that this is a massive reverse Trojan horse, that there’s hundreds of booby-trapped locations and thousands of soldiers hiding in the city, waiting for the Ukranians to come back to try and take over. It’s not impossible that the plan is to nuke the city, or flood it by blowing the dam upstream of the river.
Yes. Who would trust the Russians?
Still, there are other signs that the play might be to create a shorter, more defensible, front line by abandoning the right bank and then call for peace talks in an attempt to hold on to what they have left. If that is the strategy then there would be no trap.
It's worse when the accusation comes from Boring Old Starmer. (Who has more toughness than you might think on first glance, and has efficiently dispatched the Loony Left. But "strong leader" isn't the first thing you think.)
It's worst of all that it's true.
💥Keir Starmer destroys Rishi Sunak at #PMQs while a backbencher shouts "bring the lettuce back!"
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Geography teaching in Taiwanese schools must be pretty poor. Arizona is a hot and dusty desert, not the obvious place to make chips. They will need to spend a fortune on cooling and air filtration. How much is Uncle Sam paying?
If TSMC are getting a share of the CHIPS Act spending, it will presumably be several billion dollars.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Given the utter reliance of modern economies on advanced chip manufacturing it's completely sensible. From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
We have the NHS and state pension dragons to feed. Until that changes any economic resilience investment will be viewed as a luxury.
The state pension dragon >> NHS pension dragon.
No, the NHS itself is a dragon, public sector pensions are the noose tied around the UK economy slowly choking us all to death.
I don't know why you are so obsessed with public sector pensions. They are a small proportion of total state spend. If we hadn't had good public sector pensions, we would've had to spend more on salaries in the past. Most public sector pensions are getting worse already. They are not "the noose [...] choking us all to death".
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
She's not "certain to lose".
The opposite if anything per the betting.
But in your heart, with what’s at stake boiled down on this one, do you want to bet against the betting on this one? I’m very confident she has lost in my reading of it and 50/50 senate it will remain.
I don't want to, no, but you should by the sounds of it. You can get at least 4 on her losing. I've put an imaginary £50 on for you. If it pays off please remember to ask me for it. If you forget I'll just end up spending it.
Lol, NBC think there are 211,000 votes outstanding in Nevada.
I..... I am sceptical.
Given that many are postal votes, that are allowed four days to arrive at the count if postmarked on Election Day, how can anyone have an accurate number of outstanding ballots?
Whilst the policy is legal there, I do agree with those that think it's a crazy one. Day of, and get it in the post sooner.
Very impressive and hard fought victory for Ukraine. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw without taking heavy equipment and personnel losses. Ukraine has every incentive to make this withdrawal as chaotic and costly as possible.
It did seem that the media in the USA had a narrative and refused to divert from that .
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by voters and legislators, not by courts. There are a number of defensible and rational views, and it is a conscience matter.
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
Abortion is a classic case of something which should be decided by the woman who is pregnant.
Apparently Russian state media now reporting that the order to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro has been given. A degree of scepticism and nervousness on Ukraine War twitter as to whether this is a ruse of some sort.
There’s a Ukranian suspicion that this is a massive reverse Trojan horse, that there’s hundreds of booby-trapped locations and thousands of soldiers hiding in the city, waiting for the Ukranians to come back to try and take over. It’s not impossible that the plan is to nuke the city, or flood it by blowing the dam upstream of the river.
Yes. Who would trust the Russians?
Still, there are other signs that the play might be to create a shorter, more defensible, front line by abandoning the right bank and then call for peace talks in an attempt to hold on to what they have left. If that is the strategy then there would be no trap.
And there would be plenty of pressure internationally even from within some Ukraine allies for such 'talks'.
The Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill does not solve existing tensions (which remain unresolved in the courts) between the Gender Recognition Act 2004 (GRA) and the Equality Act 2010 (“the EqA”), writes barrister Amanda Jones.
The bill will introduce new conflicts with the EqA. The bill will also create a tangle of conflicts and anomalies between Scotland and the rest of the UK:
1. The EqA itself is a reserved matter; it cannot be amended or replaced by Scottish legislation; 2. The lawful sex of a person will be different in different parts of the UK; a person’s legal change of sex in Scotland will not be recognised in England, Wales or Northern Ireland; 3. A Scottish GRC will be inferior to a UK one. People might well need to obtain both; 4. The proposed amendments do not solve the above issues.
Instead of clarifying the law, the bill will create constitutional and legal complications that will not benefit trans people, and which will inevitably generate litigation.
Hardly new. The various constituents of the UK were quite happy to legalise matters relating to (say) homosexuality, or civil partnerships, at different times, some in advance of others.
Yes. Notably, homosexuality was legalised later in Scotland.
Comments
But its not just looks, they're both about as crazy as each other too. Parliament/Congress respectively is a better place for without either of them.
https://www.newsweek.com/70-percent-american-voters-are-open-electing-gay-president-most-dont-think-1410578
But, if Big Joe does stand I think he has a decent chance of reelection. He is one of those perennially underestimated people in world politics. The man who handed Trump’s arse to him should not be overlooked.
The Dem disaster was peddled for weeks and them saying it was all about the economy and that abortion wouldn’t be a big factor .
The ones who were most guilty of pushing the abortion isn’t a big deal in the mid terms were not surprisingly men !
I would just add that all three results for the Senate are still possible: Georgia is likely headed to a run-off, and could go either way (albeit the Dems must be favourites) and Nevada is on a knife edge.
If the Republicans nab Nevada, then a win in the run-off hands them the Senate.
By contrast, if the postals get Cortez Mastro over the line in Nevada, and they win the run-off in Georgia, then they will have 51 seats.
And if the honours are split, then we're looking at a 50-50 Senate.
I also see we’re at the glacial stage of proceedings. Presumably Nevada are now on their regular “count two ballots and have a four hour break” cycle.
Latest: https://trib.al/bgKkEJR
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1590357702185975808/video/1
There may be some evidence that the (IMHO correct) decision of the SC to say it is a matter for voters not courts is having an effect. Good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevin/status/1590333680186437635
One big loser: @SenatorSinema
.
-She was the deciding vote to kill democracy reform, which would have stopped GOP gerrymandering.
-Didn't lift a finger to help, but @CaptMarkKelly is sailing to reelection.
-Now she'll ask Dems to support her in her primary.
Good fucking luck.
Certainly going to be a few tough conversations ahead for her.
I like the dry understatement in that comment.
One small caveat for Kelly (who I think wins). In 2020, when Fox called AZ, the consensus view was that as votes came in from Maricopa, Biden's lead would grow or at least stay stable in AZ - it actually shrank. Not sure whether there is a timing of precincts issue maybe .
https://mobile.twitter.com/CalltoActivism/status/1590173934141726721
America's FIRST openly Lesbian Governor, Democrat Maura Healy has won in Massachusetts
AND America's FIRST openly Gay Governor, Democrat Jared Polis has won in Colorado.
Johnson is basically performing better all over the state, we don't have a Nevada like situation.
Has to try harder than that to fool us! 😤
I..... I am sceptical.
(I don't know the details of their modeling efforts, which rely on a sample of precincts, or what their track record is, if any.)
*Where my family lived, there was a craft baker, old style, 3 doors away ...
Personally I'm totally happy with the UK position. But it's as arbitrary as any other.
Abortion affects two lives, the mother and the child. At what point do the rights of the unborn child come into play? In the UK, we say at 24 weeks, on the grounds, I think, that before that the unborn child is not viable. Some would say at conception. Some might say once there is a heartbeat, or at birth, or any one of a number of other points. How do we determine the point at which society defends the rights of the abortee if jot democratically? The key to this battle is winning the argument of where a reasonable position lies, not in saying that there can be no argument.
The CHIPS Act costs somewhere in the region of $100 billion for technology across the various different tax breaks, funding commitments, government spending, and reasearch projects. The US is paying some of the most profitable technology companies in the world to make chips in the US, and no they won't create lots of jobs (relative to what is being spent) as these are highly automated plants. Frankly I think it is obscene.
Incredibly the CHIPS and Science Act has an additional $170 billion or so in "pork", for NASA, energy projects, and other science.
The best way to get rich in America seems to be to hire some highly paid lobbyists.
Sisters from different misters
Starmer's got so much material using things Sunak's screwed up on he doesn't need to go after the personal stuff. I also think the kind of voters who might be impressed by this line of attack are ones that I'm hoping Labour can live without.
Red Wall Brexiteers.
Fox News:
The biggest winner of the midterm elections was without a doubt Governor Ron DeSantis, whose landslide victory in the state of Florida was breathtaking.
The biggest loser? Donald Trump, whose handpicked loyalist candidates in a number of races struggled to beat vulnerable Democrats. Once again, the former president may have cost Republicans control of the Senate, in a year when it was theirs to lose.
Many will conclude, on the basis of the midterm 2022 results, that the Republican Party is ready to move on, without Donald Trump as its leader. .
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ron-desantis-new-republican-party-leader
Stremousov had become the civilian face of Russia’s occupation there. https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1590333310332375041/photo/1
No. Either he’ll lose in the primaries or won’t even run.
Realise I’m a big hostage to fortune with that forecast, and there’s no money backing it up.
My take on today's exchanges:
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/after-another-pmqs-pummelling-by-keir-starmer-rishi-sunaks-regrets-make-him-look-like-a-weak-leader-1961694
At least no one dropped a cigarette.
When she loses my original prediction of 1 a piece and 50 each will certainly be spot on, 100% - so you could accuse me of backing my own pre ordained script. But I’m not. I’m calling it solely on basis she doesn’t have enough Clark County votes to overturn 3%. If she did have enough votes left in her areas I would now change my original call of yesterday to Senate, a Democrat win.
From the POV of strategic resilience, it's as important as military spending - and of far greater economic benefit.
Ditto energy spending.
I only wish UK governments had as much foresight a decade ago.
Such is the kangaroo way: https://www.northgeorgiazoo.com/zoo-am-i-blog/ask-a-zookeeper-sacrificing-babies (Do you like how they snuck in some Christian fundamentalism at the end there?)
It's worse when the accusation comes from Boring Old Starmer. (Who has more toughness than you might think on first glance, and has efficiently dispatched the Loony Left. But "strong leader" isn't the first thing you think.)
It's worst of all that it's true.
The bill will introduce new conflicts with the EqA. The bill will also create a tangle of conflicts and anomalies between Scotland and the rest of the UK:
1. The EqA itself is a reserved matter; it cannot be amended or replaced by Scottish legislation;
2. The lawful sex of a person will be different in different parts of the UK; a person’s legal change of sex in Scotland will not be recognised in England, Wales or Northern Ireland;
3. A Scottish GRC will be inferior to a UK one. People might well need to obtain both;
4. The proposed amendments do not solve the above issues.
Instead of clarifying the law, the bill will create constitutional and legal complications that will not benefit trans people, and which will inevitably generate litigation.
https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/amanda-jones-gender-recognition-bill-will-complicate-rather-than-clarify-the-law
Jeremy Corbyn tries to raise a point of order in the House, after Rishi Sunak mentioned him again during #PMQs.
Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting can be heard saying "he's gone senile".
https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1590330644969959424
Still, there are other signs that the play might be to create a shorter, more defensible, front line by abandoning the right bank and then call for peace talks in an attempt to hold on to what they have left. If that is the strategy then there would be no trap.
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1590322958484254727/video/1
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590364844053925888
Yes, until birth.
Mass postal voting before polling day changes election results.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1590367481331613697