I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
This is about vehicles driving through a pedestrianised (since 2020) street, and activists stopping them.
Police threaten to arrest a "human bollard" (the name is from local people who have stopped drivers zooming through Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London after measures to stop through traffic have been vandalised) for "obstruction".
Then police supervise a row of vehicles driving through the pedestrianised street, where driving through between 10am and 4pm carries a £50 fine.
Normal for Norfolk?
(Personally I'm with the protestors on this one, unless there is something I have missed - deliveries and times?, and I think the police mind is being confused by the events around Just Stop OIl. They should just have fined the vehicle drivers, and sent them back the way they came).
Hopefully the police let the vehicles through while noting down the reg numbers, and the fines will be in the post. The just stop oil crowd have always been happy to take whatever punishment comes their way and I'm sure the just let us drive wherever the fuck we like crowd will be similar.
Ha ha, the Just Stop Oil clowns have been far from happy to take their punishment. They are always whining about it on social media. How they are being picked on for being peaceful protesters.
You'd better be careful saying that sort of thing in public - might well be not guilty in court.
He could in theory be tried for Treason and aiding the King's enemies but at least is guilty of attempted assault or battery
You could be tried too (and perhaps should, given your subversive views on the supremacy of the Conservative Party over Parliament). But is there a case? Unless you think throwing an egg at a King is remotely treason, unless one knows he;s allergic to egg proteins ...
You'd better be careful saying that sort of thing in public - might well be not guilty in court.
He could in theory be tried for Treason and aiding the King's enemies but at least is guilty of attempted assault or battery
Oh, so you don't believe in the rule of law or keeping the libel lawyers off OGH's back?
Forget libel lawyers, he threw an egg at the King, in whose name prosecutions are made in this country.
We have been far too weak with leftwing extremist republicans and nationalists like you for too long if you think someone who attacks the King has a libel case.
In previous centuries he might even have been hanged!
Away and change your carpet. The whole point is you can't say X attacked the King till he is tried and found guilty. Full stop.
He most clearly did try and attack him, hence he threw an egg at him.
He might claim he was throwing it at the person standing next to Charles with whom he had a dispute, and his aim wasn't very good. Just saying....
It would certainly be my defense if I was up for treason.
Perhaps the egg thrower is a staunch marriage person and hates adultery as a good Anglican.
After all the Supreme Governor is a fornicator and adulterer.
Are you sure you aren't?
There's that nisi to absolute gap which some of us find needs filling...
Oh I know I'm a serial adulterer and fornicator but I'm not saying I'm God's representative on Earth and then breaking God's commandments.
Edit - Just to clarify, I've been named co-respondent in two divorce proceedings.
You haven't lived until your mother opens up one of those letters.
The Pope is God's representative on earth for Christians and has been since St Peter. Protestants just disagree with Papal infallibility. The King is only Supreme Governor of the Church of England, effectively chairman while the Archbishop of Canterbury is CEO
What religion do you think Ian Paisley adhered to if it wasn't Christianity? Paisley didn't recognise the Pope as God's representative on earth. He literally called him the Antichrist.
Paisley's church was Calvinist and Calvinists prioritise Biblical scripture above all and justification by faith alone and they clearly do not see the Pope as infallibile as Roman Catholics do. They see Christ alone as Head of the Church.
However the only person claimed to be God's representative on earth by the majority of Christians (still a narrow Roman Catholic majority) is the Pope who Catholics still see as direct successor to St Peter. The Church of England certainly does not claim the King is God's representative on earth, merely he is anointed King and Supreme Governor of their Church
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
One of the more minor but still deeply unpleasant impacts of Donald Trump is I find myself in the position of rooting for Ron DeSantis.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
I am sure Leondamus has his fingers crossed for her at the moment.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Lots of Republicans would love DeSantis as the successor to Trump. What's never been clear is what happens if Trump doesn't want a successor because he wants another go. Will DeSantis supporters hold the line against Trump, or will they cave to Trump? Recent history suggests the latter.
DeSantis can wait, if he wants. He's got plenty of time to wait for Trump to leave the stage. If Trump threatens all-out civil war, will DeSantis just enjoy being governor of Florida for a bit longer?
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
I've just checked the counties. Most of the awaited votes are from counties favouring Hobbs. Unless Kari Lake does REALLY well in Maricopa, she will lose
That 5/1 on Hobbs, which I mentioned the other day, really was VALUE
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
The point is that it establishes an expectation of the result. First, that can demoralise your opponents and cause them not to bother queuing for three votes to cast a supposedly futile vote. Second, when you underperform your polls you can claim that there has been electoral fraud.
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Protestant evangelicals, pro life Roman Catholics and wealthy and high earning Republicans with college degrees in the suburbs will be behind DeSantis, however white working class voters and voters in rural America will still be behind Trump. It would be a very divisive nomination battle that could go all the way to the convention.
Democrats however may fall in line behind Biden again given his better than expected midterm results and with no clear alternative, O'Rourke lost again last night for example and VP Harris polls worse than the President
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
The point is that it establishes an expectation of the result. First, that can demoralise your opponents and cause them not to bother queuing for three votes to cast a supposedly futile vote. Second, when you underperform your polls you can claim that there has been electoral fraud.
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
But Donald Trump will have to lay down and not contest the Presidency as an independent.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
Taking on a rather dull centrist technocrat with a rather dull non-centrist technocrat may suprise us and succeed but it seems more a matter of managing the decline both in national and party terms
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
Taking on a rather dull centrist technocrat with a rather dull non-centrist technocrat may suprise us and succeed but it seems more a matter of managing the decline both in national and party terms
Sunak is also relatively centrist, certainly compared to the ERG right of the Tories
My biggest shock of the night was a post from @Alistair that revealed that Trafalgar polls were being included on 538 – 538! – after that dweeb with the dickie bow had called Nate Silver to persuade him of their inclusion.
This is after it was revealed – in 2020 – by @rcs1000 that these 'polls' were nothing of the sort. They are a fabrication, a work of fiction. So why is Nate Silver giving them any credence?
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's a book banner, isn't he?
Anyway, from afar I am pretty sanguine about internal US politics these days. If they allow their democracy to be destroyed, that is up to them! The key for us is that we need a US president who is absolutely committed to NATO and will not go soft on Putin. If that is DeSantis and he is the GOP nominee in 2024 than life will be a lot less stressful.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Protestant evangelicals, pro life Roman Catholics and wealthy and high earning Republicans with college degrees in the suburbs will be behind DeSantis, however white working class voters and voters in rural America will still be behind Trump. It would be a very divisive nomination battle that could go all the way to the convention.
Democrats however may fall in line behind Biden again given his better than expected midterm results and with no clear alternative, O'Rourke lost again last night for example and VP Harris polls worse than the President
Yeah, from the outside this mid-term result could hardly have gone better for DeSantis. His own thumping majority, the contrasting underperformance of the Trumpies and Biden doing just about well enough to not raise serious questions about his running again in 2024.
The long term demographics are still for the Dems - and another popular vote win wouldn't be too surprising - but right now DeSantis looks the likely candidate to be in the White House in 2025.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The bind the GOP are in is that, if they cross Trump he has enough support to ensure they lose their next primary contest, but he drives up Democrat turnout.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The bind the GOP are in is that, if they cross Trump he has enough support to ensure they lose their next primary contest, but he drives up Democrat turnout.
They're left hoping for an actuarial solution.
Their solution is to go back in time and impeach the fucker for insurrection.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The bind the GOP are in is that, if they cross Trump he has enough support to ensure they lose their next primary contest, but he drives up Democrat turnout.
They're left hoping for an actuarial solution.
or doing what they should have done in the first case and ensured that the January 6th inquiry gets rid of him as a candidate once and for all.
Why are the GOP so out of touch with ordinary Americans?
They aren't. About 50% voted for them.
These people are not outliers.
The problem is that theres a very loud 10% or so on each extreme, and a big 80% in the middle, most of whom vote for what they consider the lesser of two evils.
One American friend (a Democrat) who lives in Alabama, says he feels like Charlton Heston in The Omega Man, surrounded by the mutants.
He does say though, that quite a few Republican voters get a kick out of trolling their opponents. They know that people like Roy Moore and MTG are batshit, but find it amusing to vote for them,
It’s worse than that.
The extremists, whether MTG or AOC, know that the more baths!t the comment, the more publicity it’ll get, so they end up becoming characatures of themselves, arguing for a ban on immigration, or 40-week abortions. Both can be sensible when they want to be, they just choose not to be.
Supporting the protestors gotta hurt after SKS string 'em up rhetoric yesterday. Gonna be a call for retraction.
RS walked that 6-0.
Hodgearamus disagrees...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 7m Another comprehensive win for Keir Starmer.
The police seem to be making howlers on the protestors - stopping members of the public sorting the situation themselves and arresting journalists filming from public places. Their job is very simple. It's to arrest the protestors off the road, take them down the station and either release them without charge or charge with something that might stick based on the latest goings on in parliament and the courts.
If they feel they don't have anything they can always 'offer a caution'. That'll gum up the works for the oil lot when they need a DBS check.
They probably don't have support from their leadership.
In many respects the police is just another branch of the public sector service now will attract the same orthodoxies, one of which is centre-left leadership that is very sympathetic to those campaigning on race, sexuality and climate change.
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
The point is that it establishes an expectation of the result. First, that can demoralise your opponents and cause them not to bother queuing for three votes to cast a supposedly futile vote. Second, when you underperform your polls you can claim that there has been electoral fraud.
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
You mean the whole point of the partisan Cowboy polls is to bastardise democracy?
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trumpite white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis but stay home or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
Trump wasn't on the ballot
The Big Lie sort of was though.
His preferred candidates were also there, thanks to his patronage, and proved to be total duffers.
Mainly yes. Let's hope Lake doesn't squeeze home and put a sliver of lippo on the pig.
I've just checked the counties. Most of the awaited votes are from counties favouring Hobbs. Unless Kari Lake does REALLY well in Maricopa, she will lose
That 5/1 on Hobbs, which I mentioned the other day, really was VALUE
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
Its main purpose in this case is to promote the narrative of betrayal and stolen elections. By making it seem like the GOP was a shoe in for all these seats it makes it much easier to convince people that the election must have been fraudulent when they don't win. It is an active plan by the Trumpite faction for promoting and justifying undemocratic solutions.
You'd better be careful saying that sort of thing in public - might well be not guilty in court.
He could in theory be tried for Treason and aiding the King's enemies but at least is guilty of attempted assault or battery
You could be tried too (and perhaps should, given your subversive views on the supremacy of the Conservative Party over Parliament). But is there a case? Unless you think throwing an egg at a King is remotely treason, unless one knows he;s allergic to egg proteins ...
You'd better be careful saying that sort of thing in public - might well be not guilty in court.
He could in theory be tried for Treason and aiding the King's enemies but at least is guilty of attempted assault or battery
Oh, so you don't believe in the rule of law or keeping the libel lawyers off OGH's back?
Forget libel lawyers, he threw an egg at the King, in whose name prosecutions are made in this country.
We have been far too weak with leftwing extremist republicans and nationalists like you for too long if you think someone who attacks the King has a libel case.
In previous centuries he might even have been hanged!
Away and change your carpet. The whole point is you can't say X attacked the King till he is tried and found guilty. Full stop.
He most clearly did try and attack him, hence he threw an egg at him.
Lots of street performers in York, particularly around that area. Could have been a novelty juggling act that went wrong.
Not shouting slogans about blame for slavery though
Well m'lud, I were just starting me act when I thought now then, not a lot of punters today, they're all facing that other way, then I saw the King and, I'll be honest, I started chuntering on, summat about "Kings, huh, bet they never have to slave away like I do, now I'm 'ere making nothing and it's them's to blame", when I lost control of me eggs and next thing I knew the old plod were on top of me.
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
The point is that it establishes an expectation of the result. First, that can demoralise your opponents and cause them not to bother queuing for three votes to cast a supposedly futile vote. Second, when you underperform your polls you can claim that there has been electoral fraud.
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
You mean the whole point of the partisan Cowboy polls is to bastardise democracy?
Not just bastardise it but completely undermine it.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chip maker, is preparing another multibillion-dollar factory investment in Arizona, people familiar with the plans said.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's a book banner, isn't he?
Anyway, from afar I am pretty sanguine about internal US politics these days. If they allow their democracy to be destroyed, that is up to them! The key for us is that we need a US president who is absolutely committed to NATO and will not go soft on Putin. If that is DeSantis and he is the GOP nominee in 2024 than life will be a lot less stressful.
Yeah we don't care if he is more religious right up to the point of a religious belief that welcomes entry into the afterlife and he therefore does his damnedest to get the whole world there asap. cf Islamic fundamentalism.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
Taking on a rather dull centrist technocrat with a rather dull non-centrist technocrat may suprise us and succeed but it seems more a matter of managing the decline both in national and party terms
Sunak is also relatively centrist, certainly compared to the ERG right of the Tories
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
He was Chancellor of the Exchequer for two years. It’s his damn mess!
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Abortion upto 15 weeks means making a decision before the 16 week scan which can reveal foetal abnormalities, unless there's an exception for that it doesn't seem remotely reasonable.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
What’s very good though, by not explaining his position he’s left it to us to explain it. Windfall Taxes are wildly popular with the electorate - trying to tap into this popularity Sunak has invented a form of Windfall Tax that brings in zero money.
He’s absolutely true in what he says though, he did it, he did windfall tax.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Protestant evangelicals, pro life Roman Catholics and wealthy and high earning Republicans with college degrees in the suburbs will be behind DeSantis, however white working class voters and voters in rural America will still be behind Trump. It would be a very divisive nomination battle that could go all the way to the convention.
Democrats however may fall in line behind Biden again given his better than expected midterm results and with no clear alternative, O'Rourke lost again last night for example and VP Harris polls worse than the President
Yeah, from the outside this mid-term result could hardly have gone better for DeSantis. His own thumping majority, the contrasting underperformance of the Trumpies and Biden doing just about well enough to not raise serious questions about his running again in 2024.
The long term demographics are still for the Dems - and another popular vote win wouldn't be too surprising - but right now DeSantis looks the likely candidate to be in the White House in 2025.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Supporting the protestors gotta hurt after SKS string 'em up rhetoric yesterday. Gonna be a call for retraction.
RS walked that 6-0.
Hodgearamus disagrees...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 7m Another comprehensive win for Keir Starmer.
The police seem to be making howlers on the protestors - stopping members of the public sorting the situation themselves and arresting journalists filming from public places. Their job is very simple. It's to arrest the protestors off the road, take them down the station and either release them without charge or charge with something that might stick based on the latest goings on in parliament and the courts.
If they feel they don't have anything they can always 'offer a caution'. That'll gum up the works for the oil lot when they need a DBS check.
They can offer it. They should be told where to stick any such offer.
This is about vehicles driving through a pedestrianised (since 2020) street, and activists stopping them.
Police threaten to arrest a "human bollard" (the name is from local people who have stopped drivers zooming through Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London after measures to stop through traffic have been vandalised) for "obstruction".
Then police supervise a row of vehicles driving through the pedestrianised street, where driving through between 10am and 4pm carries a £50 fine.
Normal for Norfolk?
(Personally I'm with the protestors on this one, unless there is something I have missed - deliveries and times?, and I think the police mind is being confused by the events around Just Stop OIl. They should just have fined the vehicle drivers, and sent them back the way they came).
Hopefully the police let the vehicles through while noting down the reg numbers, and the fines will be in the post. The just stop oil crowd have always been happy to take whatever punishment comes their way and I'm sure the just let us drive wherever the fuck we like crowd will be similar.
Ha ha, the Just Stop Oil clowns have been far from happy to take their punishment. They are always whining about it on social media. How they are being picked on for being peaceful protesters.
Absolutely an appropriate comment wrt Just Stop Oil.
AFAICS the Norwich protestors were preventing lawbreaking, rather than performing it.
IMO they need a Cycling Mikey type operation, to get some of these drivers into education courses.
Lawyer for KCTMO - Grenfell Tower's managing body - just confirmed some of its former staff members are being "investigated by the police for serious criminal offences" in relation to the fire
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Lots of Republicans would love DeSantis as the successor to Trump. What's never been clear is what happens if Trump doesn't want a successor because he wants another go. Will DeSantis supporters hold the line against Trump, or will they cave to Trump? Recent history suggests the latter.
DeSantis can wait, if he wants. He's got plenty of time to wait for Trump to leave the stage. If Trump threatens all-out civil war, will DeSantis just enjoy being governor of Florida for a bit longer?
It’s a big call for DeSantis to have to make, because one doesn’t usually get two shots at the top job.
There’s a lot of Republican donors behind him, who want a more straightforward candidate rather than a controversial one.
Look for polling of Trump/Biden and DeSantis/Biden comparisons, in the swing States.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
Taking on a rather dull centrist technocrat with a rather dull non-centrist technocrat may suprise us and succeed but it seems more a matter of managing the decline both in national and party terms
Sunak is also relatively centrist, certainly compared to the ERG right of the Tories
Is he? He seems pretty Braverman esque
Braverman would be slashing taxes not raising them and also being harder line on immigration
I had no idea Ian Livingstone and Steve Jackson were behind Games Workshop. I only knew of them from the Fighting Fantasy books. Which were ace. The thing I liked best about them was the effort they had put into world building. It was all so satisfyingly coherent; it made such internal sense. They did, however, fall short of J H Brennan's Grailquest series for sheer fun. I've just looked him up - surprisingly prolific for someone I thought only wrote five books and possibly also slightly odd.
Fun fact: Steve Jackson and Ian Livingston used to have a band (called The Jackson Four) that would play pubs in Richmond and Twickenham.
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
Its main purpose in this case is to promote the narrative of betrayal and stolen elections. By making it seem like the GOP was a shoe in for all these seats it makes it much easier to convince people that the election must have been fraudulent when they don't win. It is an active plan by the Trumpite faction for promoting and justifying undemocratic solutions.
I can believe it. Not that they need any logic or evidence to make these claims.
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The bind the GOP are in is that, if they cross Trump he has enough support to ensure they lose their next primary contest, but he drives up Democrat turnout.
They're left hoping for an actuarial solution.
or doing what they should have done in the first case and ensured that the January 6th inquiry gets rid of him as a candidate once and for all.
The reason they didn't do that is because they were scared of their base, and of being primaried by Trump loyalists. I'd be delighted if McConnell and McCarthy suddenly decided to stand up to Trump, but they've left it so late the resulting civil war within the GOP would cause them immense short term damage.
Twitter universally giving PMQs to Starmer. I still think Starmer underwhelmed given the strength of his hand on GW. Vibe was the second nerdiest boy in the playground trying to beat up the nerdiest.
I was disappointed Sunak didn't explain his energy windfall policy. He seems to be playing it very safe. Which I can sort of understand as a newbie but if he wants to impress he'll need more spontaneity. Perhaps he just considers it an ordeal to survive.
I've just watched PMQs. It's made me wonder what the point of Sunak is. By that, I mean, what does he stand for? He's made a big play of clearing up the economic mess that his predecessors have left him, though I don't think that plays too well for the Tories. He's against illegal immigration, disruptive protests, trades unions, and Jeremy Corbyn - fine. But what's he actually in favour of? What's his vision?
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
He was Chancellor of the Exchequer for two years. It’s his damn mess!
More than two years. It’s interesting the myth Truss run on the pound destroyed the economy, now Sunak is the right man to put everything right, has made it into November - there’s more than enough intelligent people paying attention to have killed that myth off by now.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
Supporting the protestors gotta hurt after SKS string 'em up rhetoric yesterday. Gonna be a call for retraction.
RS walked that 6-0.
Hodgearamus disagrees...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 7m Another comprehensive win for Keir Starmer.
The police seem to be making howlers on the protestors - stopping members of the public sorting the situation themselves and arresting journalists filming from public places. Their job is very simple. It's to arrest the protestors off the road, take them down the station and either release them without charge or charge with something that might stick based on the latest goings on in parliament and the courts.
If they feel they don't have anything they can always 'offer a caution'. That'll gum up the works for the oil lot when they need a DBS check.
They can offer it. They should be told where to stick any such offer.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
thanks. 3.75 seems big for Rep if it's going to be very close.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The Republicans are not rational.
Their voters, maybe.
The money behind the Party? Oh, they are every rational at discerning a winner from a loser.
They would have dumped Trump long ago if they were. Or maybe they are rational, but know the Republican voters in primaries don't give them a choice?
Republican billionaires are solidly behind De Santis. He has the big money lined up behind hi.
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
Lots of Republicans would love DeSantis as the successor to Trump. What's never been clear is what happens if Trump doesn't want a successor because he wants another go. Will DeSantis supporters hold the line against Trump, or will they cave to Trump? Recent history suggests the latter.
DeSantis can wait, if he wants. He's got plenty of time to wait for Trump to leave the stage. If Trump threatens all-out civil war, will DeSantis just enjoy being governor of Florida for a bit longer?
It’s a big call for DeSantis to have to make, because one doesn’t usually get two shots at the top job...
Tell that to Joe Biden.
The talk is that DeSantis lacks bottle. But if there's a big enough groundswell I expect him to go for it.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
De Santis has imposed a post 15 week abortion ban that does not even include exceptions for rape and incest.
He has also imposed a law limiting discussion of racial history in schools and workplaces and limited teaching in schools about sexual orientation
He is just rolling back the extremes of CRT and Wokery in Florida's schools. And this move is massively popular with parents. Hence, in part, his enormous victory yesterday
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, all mail and dropbox are assumed heavily Cortez.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Supporting the protestors gotta hurt after SKS string 'em up rhetoric yesterday. Gonna be a call for retraction.
RS walked that 6-0.
Hodgearamus disagrees...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 7m Another comprehensive win for Keir Starmer.
The police seem to be making howlers on the protestors - stopping members of the public sorting the situation themselves and arresting journalists filming from public places. Their job is very simple. It's to arrest the protestors off the road, take them down the station and either release them without charge or charge with something that might stick based on the latest goings on in parliament and the courts.
If they feel they don't have anything they can always 'offer a caution'. That'll gum up the works for the oil lot when they need a DBS check.
They probably don't have support from their leadership.
In many respects the police is just another branch of the public sector service now will attract the same orthodoxies, one of which is centre-left leadership that is very sympathetic to those campaigning on race, sexuality and climate change.
I think they're probably more concerned with a lot of things - such as PR, internal policy, etc - rather than simply the law, but your explanation doesn't explain why the police have been arresting journalists at these protests and trying to coerce them into acting as informants.
They've managed to be simultaneously too authoritarian and too reluctant to act at the same time. So, in an awful mess like normal then.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
De Santis has imposed a post 15 week abortion ban that does not even include exceptions for rape and incest.
He has also imposed a law limiting discussion of racial history in schools and workplaces and limited teaching in schools about sexual orientation
He is just rolling back the extremes of CRT and Wokery in Florida's schools. And this move is massively popular with parents. Hence, in part, his enormous victory yesterday
Florida is leaning GOP now though, Trump won it even in 2020 when Biden won US wide.
Biden is also less woke than Harris is. Though yes DeSantis will seek to use a big win as Governor in a sunbelt state to portray himself as the new Reagan to Biden's Carter and Trump's Nixon
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, all mail and dropbox are assumed heavily Cortez.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, most of the outstanding ballots are postals from Clark, the county that accounts for more than half the State population and is more Dem. It’s going to be very close.
thanks. 3.75 seems big for Rep if it's going to be very close.
Cortez was +13 in the Early Vote in Clark. So take that into account - that's specifically Mail + In Person Early Vote.
Don't see the point of poll ramping. It just backfires.
Success = Result - Expectations
Its main purpose in this case is to promote the narrative of betrayal and stolen elections. By making it seem like the GOP was a shoe in for all these seats it makes it much easier to convince people that the election must have been fraudulent when they don't win. It is an active plan by the Trumpite faction for promoting and justifying undemocratic solutions.
Along those lines, some of the Fox pundits appeared utterly nonplussed for their favoured candidates to be behind in the polls, but with some chance of closing the gap as votes are counted today. That really kills the fraudulent count narrative.
Think i'm missing something with the Nevada Senate betting.
You can back Republicans at 3.75. NYT page has Laxalt leading by 23k. Plenty left to count but the only county where Cortez is winning is Clark where she is +5 and NYT estimating 164k votes left to count there. If she is +5 for the rest of those that only closes the gap by 8k. In all other counties Laxalt is winning.
are the outstanding ballots assumed to break more heavily for Cortez than those counted so far? eg mail and drop-off ballots?
Yes, all mail and dropbox are assumed heavily Cortez.
thanks. think she'll hang on so sitting it out.
Yeah, key thing is how many _actual_ remaining votes are out there. I've seen all kinds of estimates, none of them backed up with hard evidence.
My biggest shock of the night was a post from @Alistair that revealed that Trafalgar polls were being included on 538 – 538! – after that dweeb with the dickie bow had called Nate Silver to persuade him of their inclusion.
This is after it was revealed – in 2020 – by @rcs1000 that these 'polls' were nothing of the sort. They are a fabrication, a work of fiction. So why is Nate Silver giving them any credence?
I'm afraid Nate jumped the shark a while back. He's just another pundit these days.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
You.are spot on. Cortez looks certain to lose. She drank her blue juice early and doesn’t have enough left. The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December. From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
De Santis needs to grab his moment . Trump is weaker now after the GOP disappointment and given his huge win in Florida he certainly has momentum.
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
This talk of "senile" Biden is nonsense. He may well struggle to debate a smart young puppy like RDS but that will be due to him being 81 not being senile. OTOH he'll be the incumbent, be familiar, safe, a touch cuddly, and like Hy says some of the Trump base won't take to young Ronnie, will prefer old tried & tested blue collar Joe. Plus the Orrible Orange One will one way or another likely be a wrecking ball if he gets - in his eyes - robbed of the GOP nomination. So, all told, if it's Biden vs DeSantis that's no slam dunk either way imo. I'm not convinced myself about Biden standing, but if he does I think he'll be hard to beat.
Apart from personal animosity, what are the big policy dividing lines between DeSantis and Trump?
DeSantis is more pro free trade, more anti Putin, more religious and devout than Trump
He's also smarter, more honest. And not a weirdo sex creep. And he would accept election defeat
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
Not sure DeSantis would beat Biden, Harris maybe but some Trump white working class voters wouldn't vote for DeSantis or vote for Trump if he runs as an independent.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
By 2024 Biden will be dribbling. He is in swift cognitive decline, and it is accelerating. Imagine the debates. The young, smart, vigorous De Santis would destroy him
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
This is about vehicles driving through a pedestrianised (since 2020) street, and activists stopping them.
Police threaten to arrest a "human bollard" (the name is from local people who have stopped drivers zooming through Low Traffic Neighbourhoods in London after measures to stop through traffic have been vandalised) for "obstruction".
Then police supervise a row of vehicles driving through the pedestrianised street, where driving through between 10am and 4pm carries a £50 fine.
Normal for Norfolk?
(Personally I'm with the protestors on this one, unless there is something I have missed, and I think the police mind is being confused by the events around Just Stop OIl. They should just have fined the vehicle drivers, and sent them back the way they came).
What do you think of the pedestrianisation of Norwich City Centre
I'll be honest
I'm dead against it.
People might need access to Dixxxxxons.
Aha. There's an honest man on PB - what happened? .
AIUI it's 3 streets, not "the pedestrianisation of Norwich City Centre", and if I have it correctly it's been in place since 2020.
And the problem seems to be an unwillingness to filter motor vehicles appropriately (ie they are relying on signs rather than eg a physical barrier such bollards), and an unwillingness to enforce the byelaws (?) which will just make sure that there is not a complete change, and the Council look like charlies.
Here, there seems to be an element of police confusion - of which the symptoms are being acknowledged but the police force are trying to cover their backside with diversionary statements (eg 'we need more signage'). TBF that is nothing like as weird as the Notts Police, where the PCC has got herself banned from driving for about 5 speeding offences, and refuses to step down.
In general I am all for keeping vehicles which don't need to be there out of city / town centres, with appropriately placed car parks, travel provision for visitors in cars, and a priority for peds / mobility scooters / people on bikes. My local city, Nottingham, has been quite transformed over the last 25 years by trams/ a light rail metropolitan area network / promotion of cycling. There's now hardly any point for me to drive the 18 miles to get there, as it is 25 minutes on the light train.
There's a current bizarre kerfuffle going on in Brighton, where a small number (150) of residents' parking spaces have been replaced by "bike hangars" which store 6 bikes each at £1 per week, and raise more money more money for the Council than the corresponding car.
I suspect I'm perhaps the most vitriolic on PB about Extinction Rebellion etc, as had their journey-to-hospital-delays been in place I would have died on the occasion when I had a respiratory arrest very soon after arriving at hospital, when there was not even time to get an ambulance.
I need to have a look at the circs of those people who died in the gumming-up caused I think by the Britannia Bridge stunt.
I feel like if he's going for it DeSantis should declare soon, before Trump officially does. Don't even give a chance for Trump to set the first arguments. Unsettle him.
Trunp was threatening De Santis yesterday, saying it would go badly for him, might get hurt if he runs.
Which is a clear tell Trump is afraid of him.
Trump is done. He can run but there is no way back for him now. While the Republicans think he is a winner they will tolerate him. Last night showed he was a liability.
The bind the GOP are in is that, if they cross Trump he has enough support to ensure they lose their next primary contest, but he drives up Democrat turnout.
They're left hoping for an actuarial solution.
Their solution is to go back in time and impeach the fucker for insurrection.
Yep, never mind the Big Lie, that was the Big Flunk. A shocking act of collective cowardice that has them boxed into a bad place now. Pick Trump, they're in trouble. Don't pick him, they're in trouble. I'm not buying this "De Santis the saviour" notion. Sense it's wishful thinking on the Right.
Comments
However the only person claimed to be God's representative on earth by the majority of Christians (still a narrow Roman Catholic majority) is the Pope who Catholics still see as direct successor to St Peter. The Church of England certainly does not claim the King is God's representative on earth, merely he is anointed King and Supreme Governor of their Church
However small money GOP donors are almost 100% Trump.
I'm well aware, of course, that people don't have a clear idea of what Starmer's vision is. But Sunak, other than trumpeting integrity, professionalism and accountability, has offered no vision either. I'm beginning to think that he doesn't have much of a clue, and he's reflecting the fact that the Tories really have run out of steam.
DeSantis can wait, if he wants. He's got plenty of time to wait for Trump to leave the stage. If Trump threatens all-out civil war, will DeSantis just enjoy being governor of Florida for a bit longer?
That 5/1 on Hobbs, which I mentioned the other day, really was VALUE
The GOP has historically under-performed in these mid-terms. They may well end up with a tiny House advantage and a Senate majority (if they have one at all) dependent upon a very independent-minded Senator elected via Democrat transfers.
In this economic situation the Democrats have performed shockingly well There's a reason for that - five letters beginning with 'T'. If the GOP goes for DeSantis they probably win 2024 but if they keep pandering to the Orange One it already looks a really uphill battle for them
Democrats however may fall in line behind Biden again given his better than expected midterm results and with no clear alternative, O'Rourke lost again last night for example and VP Harris polls worse than the President
This is after it was revealed – in 2020 – by @rcs1000 that these 'polls' were nothing of the sort. They are a fabrication, a work of fiction. So why is Nate Silver giving them any credence?
Anyway, from afar I am pretty sanguine about internal US politics these days. If they allow their democracy to be destroyed, that is up to them! The key for us is that we need a US president who is absolutely committed to NATO and will not go soft on Putin. If that is DeSantis and he is the GOP nominee in 2024 than life will be a lot less stressful.
The long term demographics are still for the Dems - and another popular vote win wouldn't be too surprising - but right now DeSantis looks the likely candidate to be in the White House in 2025.
They're left hoping for an actuarial solution.
He would marmalise Biden, and surely beat Harris. The one potential good thing for the GOP from last night's mediocrity is the clear signal to Dump Trump. Of course, they might not accept this, in which case they are headed for defeat in POTUS Elex 2024
The extremists, whether MTG or AOC, know that the more baths!t the comment, the more publicity it’ll get, so they end up becoming characatures of themselves, arguing for a ban on immigration, or 40-week abortions. Both can be sensible when they want to be, they just choose not to be.
In many respects the police is just another branch of the public sector service now will attract the same orthodoxies, one of which is centre-left leadership that is very sympathetic to those campaigning on race, sexuality and climate change.
DeSantis is also no moderate but a hardline social conservative on abortion and LBGTQ issues and so socially liberal suburbanites might stick with Biden if he is the alternative
Nor is De Santis hardline pro-life. He supports abortion up to 15 weeks, and has legislated thus. That's a perfectly reasonable position
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/25/ron-desantis-florida-governor-abortion-charlie-crist
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-making-juggernaut-tsmc-eyes-multibillion-dollar-arizona-factory-expansion-11667973859
He’s absolutely true in what he says though, he did it, he did windfall tax.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-needs-to-quickly-up-game-or-tory-vultures-will-circle_uk_636b9df9e4b01727bbd38e60
He has also imposed a law limiting discussion of racial history in schools and workplaces and limited teaching in schools about sexual orientation
They should be told where to stick any such offer.
AFAICS the Norwich protestors were preventing lawbreaking, rather than performing it.
IMO they need a Cycling Mikey type operation, to get some of these drivers into education courses.
Lawyer for KCTMO - Grenfell Tower's managing body - just confirmed some of its former staff members are being "investigated by the police for serious criminal offences" in relation to the fire
https://twitter.com/PeteApps/status/1590348505121710080
There’s a lot of Republican donors behind him, who want a more straightforward candidate rather than a controversial one.
Look for polling of Trump/Biden and DeSantis/Biden comparisons, in the swing States.
“Trump is livid” and “screaming at everyone,” after last night’s disappointing midterm results for GOP, according to a Trump adviser. The adviser went on to slam the former president’s handpicked contenders: “they were all bad candidates.” “Candidates matter,” the adviser said.
This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point.
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1590341634709131265
The talk is that DeSantis lacks bottle. But if there's a big enough groundswell I expect him to go for it.
They've managed to be simultaneously too authoritarian and too reluctant to act at the same time. So, in an awful mess like normal then.
Biden is also less woke than Harris is. Though yes DeSantis will seek to use a big win as Governor in a sunbelt state to portray himself as the new Reagan to Biden's Carter and Trump's Nixon
Have you forgotten your Kari crush so soon ?
All that is left is Mail and on day Drop Box.
That really kills the fraudulent count narrative.
He's just another pundit these days.
But don't worry, if Leon doesn't have Kari, at least he'll still have Lauren Boebart.
*checks results*
Oh dear. How sad. Nevermind.
The Senate likely to remain all square but with a chance of Republicans winning it outright in December.
From here the Democrats cannot win the Senate outright, but a tie suits them with the VP casting vote.
(This of course ignores the detail Democrats will finish this election with no more than 48 Senators).
https://twitter.com/byKateSmith/status/1590331593625075712
As for Biden he really should stand aside and make way for a younger candidate . If he was up against De Santis the contrast would be huge and I couldn’t see the Dems taking the WH in that case.
There will be those pushing Buttigieg , and he does tick many boxes but to be blunt the elephant in the room can’t be avoided . A gay man isn’t going to win the key swing states.
It shouldn’t matter but it will in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan etc.
I’m getting a Pidcock vibe from her photos actually, am I alone in that?
AIUI it's 3 streets, not "the pedestrianisation of Norwich City Centre", and if I have it correctly it's been in place since 2020.
And the problem seems to be an unwillingness to filter motor vehicles appropriately (ie they are relying on signs rather than eg a physical barrier such bollards), and an unwillingness to enforce the byelaws (?) which will just make sure that there is not a complete change, and the Council look like charlies.
Here, there seems to be an element of police confusion - of which the symptoms are being acknowledged but the police force are trying to cover their backside with diversionary statements (eg 'we need more signage'). TBF that is nothing like as weird as the Notts Police, where the PCC has got herself banned from driving for about 5 speeding offences, and refuses to step down.
In general I am all for keeping vehicles which don't need to be there out of city / town centres, with appropriately placed car parks, travel provision for visitors in cars, and a priority for peds / mobility scooters / people on bikes. My local city, Nottingham, has been quite transformed over the last 25 years by trams/ a light rail metropolitan area network / promotion of cycling. There's now hardly any point for me to drive the 18 miles to get there, as it is 25 minutes on the light train.
There's a current bizarre kerfuffle going on in Brighton, where a small number (150) of residents' parking spaces have been replaced by "bike hangars" which store 6 bikes each at £1 per week, and raise more money more money for the Council than the corresponding car.
I suspect I'm perhaps the most vitriolic on PB about Extinction Rebellion etc, as had their journey-to-hospital-delays been in place I would have died on the occasion when I had a respiratory arrest very soon after arriving at hospital, when there was not even time to get an ambulance.
I need to have a look at the circs of those people who died in the gumming-up caused I think by the Britannia Bridge stunt.
However on this one I'm with the activists.
The Dems hold the key positions in Michigan , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania. They should take the SOS in Arizona who is responsible for certification.
Nevada could be the only disappointment on that front .
In Georgia the GOP have at least two people who won’t crumble against the Maga Cult.