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The big MidTerms loser – one Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com

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  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559

    Do you think someone worth £2 million or £38 million has to worry about the heating bill or the cost of a pint of milk any more than someone worth £730 million? If the attack has any value at all it is that they are divorced from the realities of daily life on the bread line. Something that applies to all 3 equally but also probably applies just as much to Starmer.
    And approximately 640 other MPs.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Driver said:

    If Bercow had done his job properly, they would never have been able to table such a motion.
    Bercow? I’m curious.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    rcs1000 said:

    Nevada will be extremely close, and I would probably have Laxalt as very slight favourite.
    Laxalt sounds like an alternative remedy for constipation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    Do you think someone worth £2 million or £38 million has to worry about the heating bill or the cost of a pint of milk any more than someone worth £730 million? If the attack has any value at all it is that they are divorced from the realities of daily life on the bread line. Something that applies to all 3 equally but also probably applies just as much to Starmer.
    It is relative, certainly more voters interviewed raised Sunak's wealth, his multiple homes in Kensington, mansion in Yorkshire, property in California etc than the other 3 simply because it is a different scale of wealth than theirs.

    Sunak is also elitist super rich like say Romney or Kerry than populist super rich like Trump or Berlusconi
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Loser #2 being the scolds who thought the Dems should have shut up about abortion.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Jonathan said:

    Bercow? I’m curious.
    He allowed the "make a named MP pseudo-PM" nonsense for the Benn Act.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Truss was holed under the waterline before that. She and her Chancellor went full steam ahead through a mine-field. Marked on the charts as "MINE FIELD".

    Fracking has now disappeared off the political agenda. Defused.

    As I said, impact way overestimated.
    No. https://youtube.com/shorts/N_3cpaCg7uQ?feature=share

    This is what Conservative government looks like.
  • sarissa said:

    42+ years ago - you can spin out a generation even longer than HYUFD!
    Actually there is a semi-serious point here, which is that Sturgeon and other SNP figures try to portray Scotland as intrinsically more 'progressive' than England in its political traditions. But 'tain't necessarily so, as that example shows.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Driver said:

    And approximately 640 other MPs.
    The average MP on £80k a year is only just about in the top 10% of earners, not even the top 1% of earners let alone the top 0.01% richest like Sunak
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,111
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, even funnier when saddo Tories are reduced to dragging up rubbish from almost 50 years ago.
    Well, it's only 42 years ago, not "almost 50". And Gordon Wilson was leader of the SNP until 32 years ago, and a candidate as late as 1999. He was still active in politics in 2016.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Heathener said:

    CNN's Winners & Losers list makes for interesting reading. This one in the winning camp should make all of us punters sit up:

    * Simon Rosenberg: Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist, was telling anyone who would listen that the seeming movement to Republicans in the final weeks of the race was misleading – fueled by a series of Republican-sponsored polls that moved polling averages in a more favorable direction for the GOP. He was right. Period.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/winners-losers-2022-midterm-elections/index.html

    He is spot on. I posted the same early yesterday morning.

    In the same post I linked to Prof Curtice explaining the UK polling council and rules.

    Is it that the US needs to copy us and sharpen up, or that the same thing hasn’t been tried here?

    To save you looking for it, here’s my unedited early Monday post

    “Off topic. But Proper Political Betting Post. I’m going to have a few words and bold predictions on the US elections.

    Is polling different in the US? I understand UK polling is governed by a Council, and pollsters sign up agree rules to be followed. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/rules-and-practices-of-political-opinion-polls/

    Quite right too. If Opinion polls are biased it can be used to distort democratic elections. But if you are going to have rules, then you are going down the road of monitoring and policing.

    Are the rules, and monitoring and policing, across the pond robust enough? Put another way, are views and political bets being shaped by tracking successive polls from more highly and trusted pollsters, or is the head being turned by “interesting” polls from less highly and trusted and experienced pollsters? I’m suspicious of the small amount of polling in these mid terms from respected pollsters, and the large amount from, ahem, can we call them cowboys?

    On this basis I have a feeling the current balance in the Senate won’t go anywhere - 1 pick up for each side. Nor will the defeat for Democrats in the house be a large one - if red wave was ever on, Roe v Wade announcement in June aborted it prematurely.

    Despite the no change senate, I’m also predicting, because of so many obvious close races, another bout of the old Red Mirage - red leads with blue votes counted later.

    This is not to say it won’t be a concerning night for the democrats - Stacey Abrams has crashed and burned in her own fight, and Latino voting GOP will again be a thing - this will have to be analysed and correct lessons learned.

    And then the big one in two years. Should we presume the Republican Nomination is Trumps for the taking? With ever decreasing circles of problematic expensive legal proceedings getting closer to Trump, what about strong, ambitious challengers appealing to primary voters for a fresh start from it all?

    Nikki Haley. If she ran against him, how exactly would Trump and his fan club tackle her? She sounds like him, only without his baggage.

    https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/07/nikki-haley-suggests-deporting-raphael-warnock/
  • PLEASE NOT THE ABORTION DEBATE AGAIN

    What we really need to focus on is the correct term limit if a woke alien has sex with a transgender AI robot.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Driver said:

    If Bercow had done his job properly, they would never have been able to table such a motion.
    Eh?

    Hoyle's the speaker, surely.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    rcs1000 said:

    Nevada will be extremely close, and I would probably have Laxalt as very slight favourite.
    almost 9am there now so hopefully the count might start moving again soon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,616
    HYUFD said:

    Boris is worth just £2 million, Cameron worth £38 million. Neither are super rich ie £100 million + and in Sunak's league given Rishi is worth £730 million with his wife despite their shared elite education

    If Boris Johnson has net debt-free assets of £2m, I'm a Dutchman. Come back and tell me that this time next year and you will probably be correct.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    HYUFD said:

    The average MP on £80k a year is only just about in the top 10% of earners, not even the top 1% of earners let alone the top 0.01% richest like Sunak
    Still far removed from the average person, albeit possibly not the average PB poster.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,998
    edited November 2022
    Obviously, I am biased, but Sunak just doesn't look like a leader to me. He looks far more like a second-in-command: very good on detail and someone you can delegate to without any worries at all, but not a driving force. For good or ill, Starmer has made it his Labour party. I cannot see Sunak doing the same for the Tories or the government.

    He reminds me very much of the numbers guy the person leading the acquisition hands over to in a meeting after the five-minute, big-picture introduction.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,111
    sarissa said:

    You are aware this was before we had a devolved parliament?
    Oh, yes. With a devolved Parliament, it would've been even later!
  • sarissa said:

    You are aware this was before we had a devolved parliament?
    And when Westminster on a cross party basis chose to legalise it SNP MPs voted against, as Mr Navabi pointed out up thread.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    almost 9am there now so hopefully the count might start moving again soon.
    Arizona are talking about working 'till Thanksgiving' to get all votes counted. Nevada may well also take considerable time. We probably will not know the fate of the senate for a considerable time. Maricopa has 275,000 signatures to verify then count for example.
    We might know the House fate later today though
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Truss was holed under the waterline before that. She and her Chancellor went full steam ahead through a mine-field. Marked on the charts as "MINE FIELD".

    Fracking has now disappeared off the political agenda. Defused.

    As I said, impact way overestimated.
    No, no - fracking will be going ahead at full speed. In the US. To supply us with LNG.

    I will repeat the statement from a fracking conference some years ago: "The cheapest shale gas in the UK will be LNG from the US."

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    ABC have called Wisconsin Senate race for the GOP

    Source 538.

    It's a horse race - NAG . Nevada Arizona Georgia

    Dem 51 : 49 GOP
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295

    "The retreat was announced shortly after Russian media said the deputy leader of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, had been killed in a car crash."

    Did his car crash through a 4th floor window?

    The entire invasion has been a car crash, so they are being unintentionally honest.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838

    Obviously, I am biased, but Sunak just doesn't look like a leader to me. He looks far more like a second-in-command: very good on detail and someone you can delegate to without any worries at all, but not a driving force. For good or ill, Starmer has made it his Labour party. I cannot see Sunak doing the same for the Tories or the government.

    He reminds me very much of the numbers guy the person leading the acquisition hands over to in a meeting after the five-minute, big-picture introduction.

    A bit like Gordon Brown in fact.
  • Obviously, I am biased, but Sunak just doesn't look like a leader to me. He looks far more like a second-in-command: very good on detail and someone you can delegate to without any worries at all, but not a driving force. For good or ill, Starmer has made it his Labour party. I cannot see Sunak doing the same for the Tories or the government.

    He reminds me very much of the numbers guy the person leading the acquisition hands over to in a meeting after the five-minute, big-picture introduction.

    Hardly surprising given you have known him as chancellor for two and a half years and PM for two and a half weeks.

    Ironically what sinks him is not his personality, but that the numbers won't add up, in the economy generally, specifically for the treasury, and also in terms of managing the various Tory factions whilst trying to hold on to a working majority in parliament.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022

    almost 9am there now so hopefully the count might start moving again soon.
    Lol. It's Nevada. They are probably already on a break.
  • Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike

    Launching such a weapon over Ukraine would be lethal to Kyiv’s information warfare systems


    https://www.ft.com/content/d6ecbf62-f26d-401f-936b-e5bd85f25c06
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295
    Does that include the new management ?

    Please note that Twitter will do lots of dumb things in coming months.

    We will keep what works & change what doesn’t.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1590384919829962752
  • In practical terms, does the Republicans winning or losing the Senate by one seat make much difference? I guess they get to chair the committees and can veto certain appointments if they all agree. Anything else?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike

    Launching such a weapon over Ukraine would be lethal to Kyiv’s information warfare systems


    https://www.ft.com/content/d6ecbf62-f26d-401f-936b-e5bd85f25c06

    But would also lead to massive retaliation from NATO. This has been made clear. A nuke to generate an EMP is still a nuke.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    kinabalu said:

    I don't totally agree with you (and Bart) about zero controls but I almost do. It's a far more reasonable position than a ban. The abortion debate suffers from a surfeit of "on the one hand, on the other hand" false equivalence and pseudy "it's complex" chinstroking imo.

    Pre Dobbs, American women had a right to an abortion, subject to certain constraints which could vary by state. There was a balance between the competing rights and all pregnant women were catered for. Women who didn't want the baby weren't forced to have it. No woman who did want the baby was forced to abort it.

    It was fine and had been in place for 50 years. Then along comes this softhead "pro life" nonsense and upends it, takes the right away, decides that the rights of the unborn trump those of women unless local politicians are good enough to deem otherwise. Indefensible on every level.
    It's very definitely a complex argument, and very definitely an on-the-one-hand, on-the-other hand argument. If the abortion argument suffers from one thing it is from an excess of certainty on both sides and a refusal to recognise there is a balance of interests to be struck.
    And process is important. I favour abortion being legal ip to 24 weeks. But this is a decision whuch must be arrived at democratically, not by some judge citing dubious precedent for political grounds. Because if you favour that route it will make it harder to fight next tine a judge takes a decision which should not be the preserve of judges. And next time the decision of the judge might go against you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Arizona are talking about working 'till Thanksgiving' to get all votes counted. Nevada may well also take considerable time. We probably will not know the fate of the senate for a considerable time. Maricopa has 275,000 signatures to verify then count for example.
    We might know the House fate later today though
    I guess that is an advantage of our undemocratic electoral system. By breakfast time the day after the election there has been a change of PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295
    Blimey.

    Mathematician Yitang Zhang Confirms Partial Solution to Riemann Hypothesis
    https://pandaily.com/mathematician-yitang-zhang-confirms-partial-solution-to-riemann-hypothesis/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I guess that is an advantage of our undemocratic electoral system. By breakfast time the day after the election there has been a change of PM.
    We might not know before the run off!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    In practical terms, does the Republicans winning or losing the Senate by one seat make much difference? I guess they get to chair the committees and can veto certain appointments if they all agree. Anything else?

    The vetoing of appointments is the whole ball game.

    Biden has confirmed Judges at an unprecedented rate for a Dem president. His team know it is all about the judges.

    If the Senate goes to the GOP then that comes to a crashing halt. The GOP have vowed to let et a single Biden appointment though. Ever.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    There could be a "don't ask, don't tell" policy on whether parties/politicians previously adopted socially conservative positions.
    It's worth considering that back in the 70s and 80s Clause 28 in England and outright illegality in Scotland was not really outside of mainstream opinion. We shouldn't judge the past - even what appears to be the relatively recent past - by the standards of the present.
    Anyone who thinks otherwise should go and watch an old episode of wheeltappers and shunters social club. The 70s were strikingly different to today, striking even to those of us who just about remember them.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Arizona are talking about working 'till Thanksgiving' to get all votes counted. Nevada may well also take considerable time. We probably will not know the fate of the senate for a considerable time. Maricopa has 275,000 signatures to verify then count for example.
    We might know the House fate later today though
    NYT have a note saying in 2020 it took Nevada 3 days to reach 90% reported so I perhaps ought not to hold my breath.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    edited November 2022

    In practical terms, does the Republicans winning or losing the Senate by one seat make much difference? I guess they get to chair the committees and can veto certain appointments if they all agree. Anything else?

    They get to decide what gets debated and voted on. When McConnell had that power it meant they were able to avoid seating Obama's pick for the Court by simply refusing to debate or vote on it. That's a massive amount of procedural power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Chris said:

    A bit like Gordon Brown in fact.
    Polling like Gordon now too, he is now a slightly more dynamic Brown facing Starmer, a slightly duller Cameron
  • Cookie said:

    It's worth considering that back in the 70s and 80s Clause 28 in England and outright illegality in Scotland was not really outside of mainstream opinion. We shouldn't judge the past - even what appears to be the relatively recent past - by the standards of the present.
    Anyone who thinks otherwise should go and watch an old episode of wheeltappers and shunters social club. The 70s were strikingly different to today, striking even to those of us who just about remember them.
    Awful trousers as well.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022
    Looking at the house races, the GOP get to 217 on ones they look 99% to win from here so they need 1 of 4 others they currently lead or about 3 the Dems are currently edging. 220 or 221 looks about the money now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    edited November 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Mathematician Yitang Zhang Confirms Partial Solution to Riemann Hypothesis
    https://pandaily.com/mathematician-yitang-zhang-confirms-partial-solution-to-riemann-hypothesis/

    That's a choice piece of science reporting.

    Yitang (Tom) Zhang, a Chinese-American mathematician who recently revealed that he had solved the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture ...
    Zhang said, “When the paper was posted online just a few days ago, many people who don’t focus on mathematics didn’t understand it, thinking that it was the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture solved, and some even thought that it proved the Riemann Hypothesis is wrong. Actually, I don’t have this ability. ..."
    ...
    He pointed out that, in essence, he had proved the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204

    Obviously, I am biased, but Sunak just doesn't look like a leader to me. He looks far more like a second-in-command: very good on detail and someone you can delegate to without any worries at all, but not a driving force. For good or ill, Starmer has made it his Labour party. I cannot see Sunak doing the same for the Tories or the government.

    He reminds me very much of the numbers guy the person leading the acquisition hands over to in a meeting after the five-minute, big-picture introduction.

    Johnson's big problem was that he wasn't able to command the loyalty of people like Sunak to carry out exactly that role. No doubt his personal failings played a large part in this, but if he had become PM in different circumstances, you could have imagined him leading a cabinet made up of much more heavyweight figures.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In 2 terms Obama got
    2 Supreme Court Judges
    55 Appeal Court Judges
    268 District Coute Judges

    In less than half a term Biden has got
    1 Supreme Court Judge
    25 Appeal Court Judges with 12 awaiting vote.
    58 District Court Judges with 45 awaiting vote
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    But would also lead to massive retaliation from NATO. This has been made clear. A nuke to generate an EMP is still a nuke.
    NATO might fret about nukes in its spare time, but the treaty does not distinguish them from any other form of armed attack. Attack *on a NATO country* is key. Mind you, an EMP which takes out NATO elctronics in NATO countries as overspill might fit the bill.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Ishmael_Z said:

    NATO might fret about nukes in its spare time, but the treaty does not distinguish them from any other form of armed attack. Attack *on a NATO country* is key. Mind you, an EMP which takes out NATO elctronics in NATO countries as overspill might fit the bill.
    Quite - its not easy to keep the EMP to Ukraine airspace.
  • Alistair said:

    The vetoing of appointments is the whole ball game.

    Biden has confirmed Judges at an unprecedented rate for a Dem president. His team know it is all about the judges.

    If the Senate goes to the GOP then that comes to a crashing halt. The GOP have vowed to let et a single Biden appointment though. Ever.

    Mitt Romney is about to become very powerful indeed.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Alistair said:

    In 2 terms Obama got
    2 Supreme Court Judges
    55 Appeal Court Judges
    268 District Coute Judges

    In less than half a term Biden has got
    1 Supreme Court Judge
    25 Appeal Court Judges with 12 awaiting vote.
    58 District Court Judges with 45 awaiting vote

    Is this a lesser known, American Christmas Carol?

    More seriously, the very idea of judges being voted on by politicians appalls me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    sarissa said:

    You are aware this was before we had a devolved parliament?
    Why let truth interfere
  • Awful trousers as well.
    And then there’s the haircuts…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Alistair said:

    Lol. It's Nevada. They are probably already on a break.
    Few hands of 'jack in the casino with a breakfast bap
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,140
    This clip Re-circulating in some Biden circles.

    https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1219103831990112256/video/1
  • HYUFD said:

    It is relative, certainly more voters interviewed raised Sunak's wealth, his multiple homes in Kensington, mansion in Yorkshire, property in California etc than the other 3 simply because it is a different scale of wealth than theirs.

    Sunak is also elitist super rich like say Romney or Kerry than populist super rich like Trump or Berlusconi
    Boris was a posho from Central Casting, and also had several homes. Cameron too. The point is, no-one cared; certainly, not enough voters cared to stop these Brideshead Revisited types being swept into Downing Street. It may be that voters respond to the difference in scale with Rishi but I remain sceptical. Either represents several lottery wins. Labour needs to attack Tories on policy and performance, especially after 12 years in office, not for the size of their bank accounts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295
    Chris said:

    That's a choice piece of science reporting.

    Yitang (Tom) Zhang, a Chinese-American mathematician who recently revealed that he had solved the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture ...
    Zhang said, “When the paper was posted online just a few days ago, many people who don’t focus on mathematics didn’t understand it, thinking that it was the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture solved, and some even thought that it proved the Riemann Hypothesis is wrong. Actually, I don’t have this ability. ..."
    ...
    He pointed out that, in essence, he had proved the Landau-Siegel zeros conjecture.
    It reads as a rough translation, so perhaps the original article was a little clearer.
    Still, if confirmed, it’s a very significant result.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Ishmael_Z said:

    NATO might fret about nukes in its spare time, but the treaty does not distinguish them from any other form of armed attack. Attack *on a NATO country* is key. Mind you, an EMP which takes out NATO elctronics in NATO countries as overspill might fit the bill.
    And an EMP/armospheric nuke is very likely to overspill Ukraines borders if it is sufficiently large to dusable Kyiv etc
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Johnson's big problem was that he wasn't able to command the loyalty of people like Sunak to carry out exactly that role. No doubt his personal failings played a large part in this, but if he had become PM in different circumstances, you could have imagined him leading a cabinet made up of much more heavyweight figures.
    Absent a referendum, or following a Remain win, he’d probably have led the Tories back into Government from opposition following an Osborne loss by now.

    In the “absent a referendum” scenario, he’d be viewed as “moderate” and “centrist”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump is indeed furious this morning, particularly about Mehmet Oz, and is blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz -- including his wife, describing it as not her best decision, according to people close to him.

    There are people pushing Trump to reschedule his announcement next week, and several Rs have texted asking whether he will, but it’s risky and would be acknowledging he’s wounded by yesterday, something that some of his advisers insist is not the case

    Worth remembering that Trump is a grown man who endorsed Oz over the objection of some of the people closest to him, and instead went beyond just endorsing and attacked Dave McCormick from the stage at a rally.


    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590374092603281411

    You decided to listen, you imbecile!

    I question that grown man part though. The 'Trump as toddler' attacks are closer to the mark than they should be - I don't think I've seen someone in public life with such thin skin, rapid changes of mood and sheer stubborness.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Glancing at the Florida numbers it looks a lot like inDem districts Dems stayed home whilst GOP turned out.

    Maybe running the Republican-lite Crist was a massive obvious mistake when it came to voter enthusiasm.
  • Putin will not go to the G20 summit in Indonesian Bali next week, - Bloomberg.

    Instead of him, Russia will send Lavrov to the summit.


    https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1590376319464140800
  • Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Mathematician Yitang Zhang Confirms Partial Solution to Riemann Hypothesis
    https://pandaily.com/mathematician-yitang-zhang-confirms-partial-solution-to-riemann-hypothesis/

    This is the same Zhang who a few years ago came from obsurity to "solve" (or at least dramatically advance) the twin primes conjecture, is it not? One senses a Hollywood biopic in the works.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    kinabalu said:

    You're kind of doing what I'm complaining about. Falsely presenting the debate as being driven by equal and opposite extremes. It isn't. The pre Dobbs situation was not extreme. It was a pragmatic, long established settlement. Women catered for. The unborn catered for. Local democracy catered for. But the basic right guaranteed.

    For me the big difference is this. Only one side is seeking to impose their moral view on everyone else. Eg I've been married twice, each time to a catholic. Both my wives are opposed to abortion, see it as a sin if you like, and would never (except for compelling medical reasons) abort a baby they were carrying. But not in a million years would they seek to force that choice by law on other women who felt differently.

    This is the heart of it for me. A perfectly reasonable balanced compromise, in place since the civil rights era, junked in favour of dogmatic bigotry. That's the practical upshot. It harms many and helps no-one. Sorry but I do feel strongly about this. I think it's dreadful what they've done.
    Pre-Dobbs wasn't extreme (it just wasn't textually justified - and it didn't cater for local democracy more than post-Dobbs), but "abortion on demand until birth" is.
  • Depending on what happens it's a small loss up to £140 loss. Fine on the House but shat the bed on the Senate (my original position was fine but ruined it last night by flipping it to back Rep gain and Nevada at short odds).

    Got lazy and took it for granted. Not sure why I haven't learned. Making a profit betting is never done on autopilot.

    Presidential book looks much better. Will apply the lessons there.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Few hands of 'jack in the casino with a breakfast bap
    someone's hoovered up the £1k at 3.5 on Laxalt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295

    This is the same Zhang who a few years ago came from obsurity to "solve" (or at least dramatically advance) the twin primes conjecture, is it not? One senses a Hollywood biopic in the works.
    Yes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yitang_Zhang
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Alistair said:

    The vetoing of appointments is the whole ball game.

    Biden has confirmed Judges at an unprecedented rate for a Dem president. His team know it is all about the judges.

    If the Senate goes to the GOP then that comes to a crashing halt. The GOP have vowed to let et a single Biden appointment though. Ever.

    A lesson they certainly learned from Trump's time in office.

    It's a worrying trend that the parties both know and focus on controlling the judges as the most important thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    "if he can't stand up to a cartoon bully with a pet spider"

    That made me actually LOL.
    Simon Carr on Guido of all placesw had an interesting take on that point.

    Just as a preliminary note, Gavin Williamson was a terrible bully. Awful. He was just no good at it at all. His one accomplishment was in persuading people he had a talent for it. The spider on his desk. The creepy smile. The dead-fish handshake. The official positions he mysteriously acquired. But the vast majority of his techniques – the ones we saw in text form – were pitiful. Nothing he said or did needed any other reaction than, “Gavin. You’re a nob. Don’t talk to me anymore.’

    https://order-order.com/2022/11/09/theres-one-good-way-to-defeat-the-forces-of-darkness-bully-them-back/
  • In a keynote speech on security policy in Toulon, Macron also confirmed that there would be a France-UK summit, mostly on defence cooperation, in the first quarter of next year. Such summits were once annual events. The last was in Sandhurst in Jan 2018

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1590396799499800576
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.

    Mathematician Yitang Zhang Confirms Partial Solution to Riemann Hypothesis
    https://pandaily.com/mathematician-yitang-zhang-confirms-partial-solution-to-riemann-hypothesis/

    I like reading about mathematics on wikipedia as no matter how I try I cannot grasp the fundamental concepts they attempt to describe in plain terms.
  • FYI, we've all talked about RDS as the leader for the GOP nom in 2024 but it might be worthwhile taking a look at Greg Abbott here. A number of similar parallels - seen as a fighter, impressive win in his race on a state that was seen as a possible flip back in 2020, ambitious and wants the nomination.

  • If it looks like the Republicans are going to nick Nevada can someone explain to me why they're still at 3 with the Dems available at 1.45?

    Why haven't punters reacted?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    Quite - its not easy to keep the EMP to Ukraine airspace.
    Very likely the only reason it hasn't happened yet.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited November 2022
    Cookie said:

    It's very definitely a complex argument, and very definitely an on-the-one-hand, on-the-other hand argument. If the abortion argument suffers from one thing it is from an excess of certainty on both sides and a refusal to recognise there is a balance of interests to be struck.
    And process is important. I favour abortion being legal ip to 24 weeks. But this is a decision whuch must be arrived at democratically, not by some judge citing dubious precedent for political grounds. Because if you favour that route it will make it harder to fight next tine a judge takes a decision which should not be the preserve of judges. And next time the decision of the judge might go against you.
    I'm also fine with how we have it. It's a balance. And pre Dobbs the US had a balance. It doesn't now. And the fundamental lack of balance - which absolutely is not complex - is that only the "pro life" movement seek to impose their view by law on everyone else.

    Should this fundamental right of women (with constraints) be a matter for politics? Ok, but if so it should imo be enshrined as high up the chain as possible. Eg imagine here if Leeds wished to ban abortion. Great to reply, no because Yorkshire says you can't. Now Yorkshire wants to. No because England says you can't. But England do want to. No because "Europe" says you can't. Etc.

    Enshrine via a Constitution, an independent judiciary, and/or at the highest possible political level. The governing principle here for me is, the harder it is to remove this basic human right of women - over their bodies - the better.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    I like reading about mathematics on wikipedia as no matter how I try I cannot grasp the fundamental concepts they attempt to describe in plain terms.
    The beauty of the 4 colour theorem, and Fermat, is that they are comprehensible. Zeta functions, naaah.
  • someone's hoovered up the £1k at 3.5 on Laxalt.
    Well, if it comes back I'm tempted to shovel some in myself as £50 could dig me out of most of my hole.

    How sure are we?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,825

    This is the same Zhang who a few years ago came from obsurity to "solve" (or at least dramatically advance) the twin primes conjecture, is it not? One senses a Hollywood biopic in the works.
    A session of hard labour in the fields during the Cultural Revolution adds to the tale too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    If it looks like the Republicans are going to nick Nevada can someone explain to me why they're still at 3 with the Dems available at 1.45?

    Why haven't punters reacted?

    We don't know how many outstanding ballots there are.

    Ralston has posited 100k with a 66/33 split which would be enough for the Dem to win.

    But we simply do not know. There is a bi question maker over Washoe and also the split there.
  • kle4 said:

    A lesson they certainly learned from Trump's time in office.

    It's a worrying trend that the parties both know and focus on controlling the judges as the most important thing.
    Republicans were sorting out judges long before Trump; even before McConnell's GOP effectively vetoed Obama's Supreme Court pick. This is where a lot of never-Trump Republicans came from, a background of down-ticket support so even the local dog-catcher was Republican, vote reform (or gerrymandering and suppression) and packing the lower courts.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    He is spot on. I posted the same early yesterday morning.

    In the same post I linked to Prof Curtice explaining the UK polling council and rules.

    Is it that the US needs to copy us and sharpen up, or that the same thing hasn’t been tried here?

    To save you looking for it, here’s my unedited early Monday post

    “Off topic. But Proper Political Betting Post. I’m going to have a few words and bold predictions on the US elections.

    Is polling different in the US? I understand UK polling is governed by a Council, and pollsters sign up agree rules to be followed. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/rules-and-practices-of-political-opinion-polls/

    Quite right too. If Opinion polls are biased it can be used to distort democratic elections. But if you are going to have rules, then you are going down the road of monitoring and policing.

    Are the rules, and monitoring and policing, across the pond robust enough? Put another way, are views and political bets being shaped by tracking successive polls from more highly and trusted pollsters, or is the head being turned by “interesting” polls from less highly and trusted and experienced pollsters? I’m suspicious of the small amount of polling in these mid terms from respected pollsters, and the large amount from, ahem, can we call them cowboys?

    On this basis I have a feeling the current balance in the Senate won’t go anywhere - 1 pick up for each side. Nor will the defeat for Democrats in the house be a large one - if red wave was ever on, Roe v Wade announcement in June aborted it prematurely.

    Despite the no change senate, I’m also predicting, because of so many obvious close races, another bout of the old Red Mirage - red leads with blue votes counted later.

    This is not to say it won’t be a concerning night for the democrats - Stacey Abrams has crashed and burned in her own fight, and Latino voting GOP will again be a thing - this will have to be analysed and correct lessons learned.

    And then the big one in two years. Should we presume the Republican Nomination is Trumps for the taking? With ever decreasing circles of problematic expensive legal proceedings getting closer to Trump, what about strong, ambitious challengers appealing to primary voters for a fresh start from it all?

    Nikki Haley. If she ran against him, how exactly would Trump and his fan club tackle her? She sounds like him, only without his baggage.

    https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/07/nikki-haley-suggests-deporting-raphael-warnock/
    Excellent post @MoonRabbit +1

    @rcs1000 also called this correctly.

    Kudos to you both.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    If it looks like the Republicans are going to nick Nevada can someone explain to me why they're still at 3 with the Dems available at 1.45?

    Why haven't punters reacted?

    NYT and others saying 200K+ votes left to count, most from Clark and Washoe, who they think break to Cortez +40k to overturn the lead. but Laxalt's price has come in a point in last hour or so. Has been some debate on here today as to how many are actually still outstanding. I'm trying to find some timeline of the count in 2020 but even if I could it might not be much use here.
  • Alistair said:

    We don't know how many outstanding ballots there are.

    Ralston has posited 100k with a 66/33 split which would be enough for the Dem to win.

    But we simply do not know. There is a bi question maker over Washoe and also the split there.
    Thanks.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,684
    HYUFD said:

    Why on earth should a Conservative Party be Progressive? Economic and social liberalism may be the consensus now in the UK on the whole but of course there will be social conservatives in the Conservative Party opposed to social liberalism just as there will be socialists in the Labour Party opposed to capitalism and economic liberalism
    Gay marriage as opposed to gay decriminalisation is neither progressive nor unprogressive.

    At issue is whether 'marriage' means or should refer only to a particular relationship between one man and one woman or whether it can properly mean something else as well in law and custom. Both views are entirely arguable and rational; progress has nothing to say about it.

  • kle4 said:

    Simon Carr on Guido of all placesw had an interesting take on that point.

    Just as a preliminary note, Gavin Williamson was a terrible bully. Awful. He was just no good at it at all. His one accomplishment was in persuading people he had a talent for it. The spider on his desk. The creepy smile. The dead-fish handshake. The official positions he mysteriously acquired. But the vast majority of his techniques – the ones we saw in text form – were pitiful. Nothing he said or did needed any other reaction than, “Gavin. You’re a nob. Don’t talk to me anymore.’

    https://order-order.com/2022/11/09/theres-one-good-way-to-defeat-the-forces-of-darkness-bully-them-back/
    Gavin Williamson got a series of ministerial appointments from a series of Prime Ministers, despite fouling up, and a CBE and knighthood. He must have been doing something right, even if he was only faking it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Nevada looks incredibly close. But the Dems can afford to lose Nevada because they're pretty likely to win Georgia either this time or on December 6th.

    That would take it to 50:50. Not ideal but if you'd offered them that a week ago they'd have probably snapped your hand off.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    dixiedean said:

    A session of hard labour in the fields during the Cultural Revolution adds to the tale too.
    Born 1955, so a real stayer. I was expecting him to be about 23.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850

    Arizona are talking about working 'till Thanksgiving' to get all votes counted. Nevada may well also take considerable time. We probably will not know the fate of the senate for a considerable time. Maricopa has 275,000 signatures to verify then count for example.
    We might know the House fate later today though
    I think Arizona is looking pretty good for the Dems: they are well ahead (at this stage of the count) of where they were in 2018 or 2020, and most of what is to come is Maricopa and/or postals which favour them.

    Nevada is a much tougher call: the polls had been significantly better for the Republicans there, the Dems are behind by three percentage points, and there are fewer ballots to count.

    I get that it's mostly Clark County postals and drop boxes, and that these favor the Dems, but the Dems would have to do pretty well to overturn the gap: I'd make Laxalt the narrow favourite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,295
    .
    kle4 said:

    I like reading about mathematics on wikipedia as no matter how I try I cannot grasp the fundamental concepts they attempt to describe in plain terms.
    You are not alone in that.
    My son did a maths degree, and refuses to try and explain algebraic geometry to me on the grounds the effort would be a waste of both our time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022
    Heathener said:

    Nevada looks incredibly close. But the Dems can afford to lose Nevada because they're pretty likely to win Georgia either this time or on December 6th.

    That would take it to 50:50. Not ideal but if you'd offered them that a week ago they'd have probably snapped your hand off.

    Heathener said:

    Nevada looks incredibly close. But the Dems can afford to lose Nevada because they're pretty likely to win Georgia either this time or on December 6th.

    That would take it to 50:50. Not ideal but if you'd offered them that a week ago they'd have probably snapped your hand off.

    They almost definitely will not get over 50%, it should be something like 49.5 vs 48.5 with 2% Libertarian to share about. A toss up run off. (Edit - its been indeed called as a run off by the looks of things)
    And Arizona is not yet a lock.
  • NYT and others saying 200K+ votes left to count, most from Clark and Washoe, who they think break to Cortez +40k to overturn the lead. but Laxalt's price has come in a point in last hour or so. Has been some debate on here today as to how many are actually still outstanding. I'm trying to find some timeline of the count in 2020 but even if I could it might not be much use here.
    A true gamble then.

    I've stuck £30 on Laxalt on the basis no-one knows (so his price might be value) and I'll be equally pissed off by a £150 loss to a £180 loss but will feel mildly pleased if I get it to a £85-90 loss only.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    algarkirk said:

    Gay marriage as opposed to gay decriminalisation is neither progressive nor unprogressive.

    At issue is whether 'marriage' means or should refer only to a particular relationship between one man and one woman or whether it can properly mean something else as well in law and custom. Both views are entirely arguable and rational; progress has nothing to say about it.
    Marriage in origin is circularly defined: A marriage is a hetero partnership whose children are legitimate. What is a legitimate child? One born to a married couple. But there is nothing to stop us repurposing the concept once its original use has expired. Which it has, with the sole exception of the inheriting of titles.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited November 2022

    If it looks like the Republicans are going to nick Nevada can someone explain to me why they're still at 3 with the Dems available at 1.45?

    Why haven't punters reacted?

    Some of us have 😌

    And mentally spending the winnings on a shopping trip.
  • dixiedean said:

    A session of hard labour in the fields during the Cultural Revolution adds to the tale too.
    Even in America, at the time of his first breakthrough, Zhang was an untenured lecturer at a second-rate university.

    The good people of Wikipedia say Zhang is 67, an emphatic counter-example to the popular notion that mathematicians do their best work by 25 and are burnt out by 40.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,684
    edited November 2022
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The beauty of the 4 colour theorem, and Fermat, is that they are comprehensible. Zeta functions, naaah.
    Roger Penrose's The Road to Reality was supposed to be the book that cracks the maths etc of all this for the interested reader. I promise you it doesn't.

  • Some of us have 😌

    And mentally spending the winnings on a shopping trip.
    That is confident!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Gavin Williamson got a series of ministerial appointments from a series of Prime Ministers, despite fouling up, and a CBE and knighthood. He must have been doing something right, even if he was only faking it.
    That's just classic con man schtick though. For all we think of ourselves as cynical, if someone acts like they are the bees knees we tend to think there must be something behind it. It's why the confident can rise so high even with little talent.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    algarkirk said:

    Roger Penrose's The Road to Reality was supposed to be the book that cracks the maths etc of all this for the interested reader. I promise you it doesn't.
    See also books to help the earnest humanities wannabe polymath to understand quantum physics and Einstein and shit. Any physicist will tell you that it is all in the maths, and the metaphors trying to substitute for the maths are mere gibberish.
  • Laxalt sounds like an alternative remedy for constipation.
    A Red Wave with a resurgent Trump would also have a similar effect.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Driver said:

    Pre-Dobbs wasn't extreme (it just wasn't textually justified - and it didn't cater for local democracy more than post-Dobbs), but "abortion on demand until birth" is.
    That phrase is, yes, but "women's right to choose" doesn't map to that in practice. What's most important imo is how it was before in practice vs how it's shaping up now in practice. It's grim on that metric.

    Pre Dobbs catered for local democracy but with the basic right guaranteed. Variations over and above the minimum right according to legislatures. Now the basic right is not guaranteed. The balance has gone.

    As for the Constitutional Reasoning behind Roe or Dobbs. I'm no expert and tbh I don't care too much about that. Fwiw I found the logic of Roe superior to that of Dobbs. But wtf does that matter compared to American women losing a fundamental right they've had for 50 years? It really doesn't.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,684
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Marriage in origin is circularly defined: A marriage is a hetero partnership whose children are legitimate. What is a legitimate child? One born to a married couple. But there is nothing to stop us repurposing the concept once its original use has expired. Which it has, with the sole exception of the inheriting of titles.
    Agree, of course, about our power to repurpose. The rest of the argument is a bit thin.

    To this day lots of people quite like the idea there is an institution with a name and history which governs relationships characterised by public promise, fidelity and the transmission of life, together with a promise to care for that new life together.

    It is central to many lives of progressives and traditionalists and is by no means defunct. Cameron and Rishi; Blair and Starmer......?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Arizona is looking pretty good for the Dems: they are well ahead (at this stage of the count) of where they were in 2018 or 2020, and most of what is to come is Maricopa and/or postals which favour them.

    Nevada is a much tougher call: the polls had been significantly better for the Republicans there, the Dems are behind by three percentage points, and there are fewer ballots to count.

    I get that it's mostly Clark County postals and drop boxes, and that these favor the Dems, but the Dems would have to do pretty well to overturn the gap: I'd make Laxalt the narrow favourite.
    One factor that may complicate Arizona are how many of the manual count are 'box 3 ballots' from on the day voting in the 20% of precincts that had an issue. These may favour Lake and Masters more
This discussion has been closed.