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The big MidTerms loser – one Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 27 in General
imageThe big MidTerms loser – one Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com

At this stage in the Midterms’ analysis the big winner for the Republicans was the Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, who held onto his position with an increased majority. He now appears to be in strong position to go for the WH2024 Republican nomination.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Good
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    edited November 9
    2nd like Trumps Candidates
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,205
    From an onlookers point of view it is suprising that Biden and Kamala Harris are at such long odds. Surely they should have an entrenched incumbency advantage?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    Betfair has Dem as slight favourites now in Nevada
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    edited November 9
    Back DeSantis.

    Going to be interesting to watch people like the self-described “Donald Trump in a dress” Kari Lake, if she wins. Will they switch to backing the Florida governor, given that so many of Trump’s picks have failed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,483
    edited November 9
    darkage said:

    From an onlookers point of view it is suprising that Biden and Kamala Harris are at such long odds. Surely they should have an entrenched incumbency advantage?

    Yeah, but Biden is 125 years old so there's uncertainty about the ticket being the same.

    I hope he goes for it. If the younger generation want it they need to take it, not expect to inherit.
  • I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    edited November 9
    darkage said:

    From an onlookers point of view it is suprising that Biden and Kamala Harris are at such long odds. Surely they should have an entrenched incumbency advantage?

    If Biden doesn't run, then it's an open contest, and Harris will have to beat half a dozen plausible contenders, so her odds are quite explicable.

    Biden's are almost entirely a function of how people see his health and mental capacity. Probably value - at least on a trading basis - at this level.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    Sandpit said:

    Back DeSantis.

    Going to be interesting to watch people like the self-described “Donald Trump in a dress” Kari Lake, if she wins. Will they switch to backing the Florida governor, given that so many of Trump’s picks have failed?

    I read that as "Trump's pricks..."
  • Sandpit said:

    Back DeSantis.

    Going to be interesting to watch people like the self-described “Donald Trump in a dress” Kari Lake, if she wins. Will they switch to backing the Florida governor, given that so many of Trump’s picks have failed?

    I read that as "Trump's pricks..."
    He probably typed that. Bloody autocorrect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    If Trump ran as an independent, would he win any states? Would the Republicans?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    Who would have thought the party that has this kind of jobs chart would do well on economic issues?


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298
    Per betfair the House is not a done deal. Freely available @ 1.07.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Betfair has Dem as slight favourites now in Nevada

    Anyone who has info on outstanding ballots to be counted would make a killing just now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    edited November 9

    If Trump ran as an independent, would he win any states? Would the Republicans?

    No; yes.
    But not so many.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333

    Sandpit said:

    Back DeSantis.

    Going to be interesting to watch people like the self-described “Donald Trump in a dress” Kari Lake, if she wins. Will they switch to backing the Florida governor, given that so many of Trump’s picks have failed?

    I read that as "Trump's pricks..."
    And?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    It's true that only a very small section of the population would welcome freezing their bollocks off :wink:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    Trump managed to survive as a political player despite losing in 2020 and despite the Jan 6th insurrection, and has successfully managed to push out many of the Republicans in Congress who opposed his election steal lies.

    To conclude that an underwhelming set of midterm results is going to damage his nomination hopes is to analyse him like a conventional politician, and completely misunderstand the basis of his support, and the reality distortion field that he has erected.

    In Trump world, the midterms only show how badly America needs Trump to save them from Democrats stealing elections, and that he's the only one who can do it.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,321
    Alistair said:

    Betfair has Dem as slight favourites now in Nevada

    Anyone who has info on outstanding ballots to be counted would make a killing just now.
    Ralston thinks there may be a lot of outstanding mail ballots in Clark which will be heavily Dem. Very close though
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    edited November 9

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    You could of course reverse that first sentence. The country is split down the middle. Which given how deranged the Republicans have become is nothing to celebrate.

    The betting suggests a 46% chance of a De Santis or Trump Presidency. Forgive me for not celebrating.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Trump’s hopes of White House comeback appeared to have been dealt a triple blow as early results showed no huge 'Red Wave' in US mid-term elections, some candidates he personally backed lost and clear rival to be his party’s presidential candidate emerged.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/us-midterm-elections-latest-news-joe-biden-republican-senate-democrats-b1038601.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Nigelb said:

    If Trump ran as an independent, would he win any states? Would the Republicans?

    No; yes.
    But not so many.
    He'd win some. The Dakotas, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas would all be three way fights with Trump taking them if he is outpolling the Republican nominee
    But it would just hand Biden his second term anyway
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    If Trump ran as an independent, would he win any states? Would the Republicans?

    If he does a Ross Perot, he’ll be hated by the half of Americans that don’t hate him already!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    BREAKING: @DeputyMayorofGM Baroness Bev Hughes announces she is stepping down in the new year.

    @GranadaReports https://twitter.com/AndyBonnerITV/status/1590289292890624000/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Another loser...

    "The only question is how strong the Red Wave will be". The failure of the red wave to materialise, against the incumbent party in an economic downtown, suggests the Trump strategy is historically weak & suggests his path in 2024 is very narrow indeed, rather more so than 2020

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1590097964248498176

    Substack 25. Get ready for Trump 2. What the #midterms will likely tell us about American and global politics
    https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-trump-2
  • Should cut their salaries by 100%.

    Northern Ireland politicians at Stormont are to have their salaries cut by almost one-third due to the stalemate over the establishment of an executive, BBC News NI understands.

    The executive has been blocked from meeting since February due to the DUP's Northern Ireland Protocol protest.

    NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will make an announcement later.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-63562122
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298
    There's a tight POTUS v NOM spread for RDS. The implication is if he's the GOP candidate in 24 he's heavy odds on to win. Not so sure about that myself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    France just legislated that every parking lot for 80 cars or more must be covered by solar panels

    That’s 11GW of new solar (same as 10 new nuclear reactors) powering millions of home - zero new land needed

    Climate action is happening, just not at #COP27


    https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1590255454088593408
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Alistair said:

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    Who would have thought the party that has this kind of jobs chart would do well on economic issues?


    Presidents don't create jobs. That is covid rebound anyway, surely?

    Not complaining, mind.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,481
    Sandpit said:

    If Trump ran as an independent, would he win any states? Would the Republicans?

    If he does a Ross Perot, he’ll be hated by the half of Americans that don’t hate him already!
    He'll be hated by half of the half. The other half of the half will hate the official GOP candidate for splitting the vote.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753
    I hope this is right, but two years is a long time and American politics, especially on the right, is littered with the bodies of those who underestimated Trump's apparent appeal.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402
    kinabalu said:

    Per betfair the House is not a done deal. Freely available @ 1.07.

    Long if settled today; too short if stake is tied up till next Easter. Which applies is anyone's guess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    kinabalu said:

    There's a tight POTUS v NOM spread for RDS. The implication is if he's the GOP candidate in 24 he's heavy odds on to win. Not so sure about that myself.

    Yes, I think that's bollocks.
    If the economy is in good shape, then the Democrat's candidate will be at least evens, whoever it is.

    And DeSantis is pretty untried on the national stage; success at the state level doesn't always translate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,595
    edited November 9
    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP candidate videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    A lot of bridges in Kherson being reported as destroyed by the Russians today, presumed to be to cover their retreat, though early days yet.

    Tweet linked has a map of locations of destroyed bridges.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1590291616019148800
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Should cut their salaries by 100%.

    Northern Ireland politicians at Stormont are to have their salaries cut by almost one-third due to the stalemate over the establishment of an executive, BBC News NI understands.

    The executive has been blocked from meeting since February due to the DUP's Northern Ireland Protocol protest.

    NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will make an announcement later.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-63562122

    Why not just cut the salaries of the ones who won't turn up?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Just discovered I had a fiver on the Dems in Wisconsin.

    Ah well, excellent value loser.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    France just legislated that every parking lot for 80 cars or more must be covered by solar panels

    That’s 11GW of new solar (same as 10 new nuclear reactors) powering millions of home - zero new land needed

    Climate action is happening, just not at #COP27


    https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1590255454088593408

    I approve of this decision by the French.

    Yes, I am aware this is a sign of the apocalypse.
    Good. Parking lots is rent seeking in its purest form. One of the richest blokes I know, got that way cos his godfather gave him a carpark in Liverpool for his 21st.

    Next stop, warehouse roofs, supermarket roofs, B n Q roofs. If they won't take the weight, re roof them.
  • Alistair said:

    Just discovered I had a fiver on the Dems in Wisconsin.

    Ah well, excellent value loser.

    The correct term is 'excellent trading bet.'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,365

    Yeah it was obvious an overweight 76 year old would struggle to maintain an election.

    Thinking ahead personally, once every 4 years then moaning that it’s been stolen when it’s a flop seems like a plan.

    Hoping not to be overweight or orange mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Another one for the ‘poor candidate choice’ pile.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Thanks, further proof that lawyers are awesome.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Seems like a nice young man.
    Last week:
    https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1588205419494793218
    Republican congressional candidate Bo Hines is proposing rape panels he is calling a “community review process” to decide if rape and incest victims can be allowed to get an abortion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    There's a tight POTUS v NOM spread for RDS. The implication is if he's the GOP candidate in 24 he's heavy odds on to win. Not so sure about that myself.

    Yes, I think that's bollocks.
    If the economy is in good shape, then the Democrat's candidate will be at least evens, whoever it is.

    And DeSantis is pretty untried on the national stage; success at the state level doesn't always translate.
    And the economy in turn has Putin/Ukraine as a major influence. Interesting to ponder.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    DeSantis: "We have embraced freedom. We have maintained law and order. We have protected the rights of parents. We have respected our taxpayers, and we reject woke ideology...We will never ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die!" {VIDEO}

    https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1590166945164595200

    The Florida Medical Board just followed NHS England, Sweden & Finland in stopping the "affirmative care" (sic) model for gender dysphoric children, which has led to a medicalised pathway where followed.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434

    France just legislated that every parking lot for 80 cars or more must be covered by solar panels

    That’s 11GW of new solar (same as 10 new nuclear reactors) powering millions of home - zero new land needed

    Climate action is happening, just not at #COP27


    https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1590255454088593408

    I approve of this decision by the French.

    Yes, I am aware this is a sign of the apocalypse.
    I sometimes think that Churchill's wartime suggestion of a permanent UK/France political union might have worked out quite well for both of us.
    (ducks for cover).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Thanks, further proof that lawyers are awesome.
    Particularly wily lawyers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Alistair said:

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    Who would have thought the party that has this kind of jobs chart would do well on economic issues?


    Presidents don't create jobs. That is covid rebound anyway, surely?

    Not complaining, mind.
    Yeah, it's the Covid rebound. But the point is that the last 2 years has seen unprecedented job growth. And it looks like in the exit polls that voters were a lot more positive about the economy than the US press would leave you believe.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    So if GOP fail to take Senate

    Trump charges re storming of Congress look more likely to proceed?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Ishmael_Z said:

    France just legislated that every parking lot for 80 cars or more must be covered by solar panels

    That’s 11GW of new solar (same as 10 new nuclear reactors) powering millions of home - zero new land needed

    Climate action is happening, just not at #COP27


    https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1590255454088593408

    I approve of this decision by the French.

    Yes, I am aware this is a sign of the apocalypse.
    Good. Parking lots is rent seeking in its purest form. One of the richest blokes I know, got that way cos his godfather gave him a carpark in Liverpool for his 21st.

    Next stop, warehouse roofs, supermarket roofs, B n Q roofs. If they won't take the weight, re roof them.
    Then again, you are just legislating to oblige the owners to make even more free money. Surprised they haven't already thought of it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Should cut their salaries by 100%.

    Northern Ireland politicians at Stormont are to have their salaries cut by almost one-third due to the stalemate over the establishment of an executive, BBC News NI understands.

    The executive has been blocked from meeting since February due to the DUP's Northern Ireland Protocol protest.

    NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will make an announcement later.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-63562122

    The more significant part of the announcement is that he's pushing the Assembly election back to March, and possibly beyond. Deadlines never mean anything in Northern Irish politics. Also embarrassing for Steve Baker, who said an election would be called.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    The lesson the Dems need from Pennsylvania is that they need to pick more candidates who look like they can rip their opponent in two with their bare hands.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Another one for the ‘poor candidate choice’ pile.
    Hand picked poor choice.

    Trump-Backed Starling Bo Hines Falls in Surprise Loss in North Carolina House Race
    Bines was seen as a "young star"in the Republican Party. Then, he lost.
    https://newrepublic.com/post/168684/trump-backed-starling-bo-hines-loses-north-carolina-house-race
    ...In a major loss, Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines has lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district. FiveThirtyEight had predicted Hines to have a 77 percent chance of winning.

    Nickel leads Hines 51.32 percent to 48.68 percent, with all precincts reporting.

    Hines, whose campaign received over $775,000 from his family’s trust fund, enjoyed support from former President Donald Trump, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and outgoing North Carolina Representative Madison Cawthorn....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,481
    edited November 9

    So if GOP fail to take Senate

    Trump charges re storming of Congress look more likely to proceed?

    I think it's the same outlook either way: They'll likely charge him with whatever they're sure they can prove, which will probably be pretty minor if anything, and it'll get tied up in procedural legal arguments until after 2024.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,467
    edited November 9
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: @DeputyMayorofGM Baroness Bev Hughes announces she is stepping down in the new year.

    @GranadaReports https://twitter.com/AndyBonnerITV/status/1590289292890624000/photo/1

    Could be the zeitgeist is changing. Like a mexican wave roling around the world. Johnson's gone Bolsonoro's gone Trump's going to be humiliated. Just waiting for Sunak Braverman and the rest of the Brexiteers and we can rejoin a civilised world again
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    Alistair said:

    The lesson the Dems need from Pennsylvania is that they need to pick more candidates who look like they can rip their opponent in two with their bare hands.

    Send Biden to the gym?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298
    So did any PBers call this Dem overperformance and make good betting profits?

    I didn't. I'm up on a "buying money" House bet and I'm up some more assuming Trump does announce but I lost on the Senate - mediocre profit overall for the amount I staked and the risk I took.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,936

    Alistair said:

    The lesson the Dems need from Pennsylvania is that they need to pick more candidates who look like they can rip their opponent in two with their bare hands.

    Send Biden to the gym?
    Matthew McConaughey!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298

    Yeah it was obvious an overweight 76 year old would struggle to maintain an election.

    Thinking ahead personally, once every 4 years then moaning that it’s been stolen when it’s a flop seems like a plan.

    Hoping not to be overweight or orange mind.
    Slip in a midterm?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,123
    A pity for the Dems that they struggled in the New York races. They might actually have had a good shot at holding onto a tiny majority in the House if they’d performed better there, I think?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,123

    So if GOP fail to take Senate

    Trump charges re storming of Congress look more likely to proceed?

    Isn’t it a House committee investigating?

    If Dems do keep (and hold onto) the Senate for the next 2 years the bonus is that they can breathe a bit easier about the GOP making mischief with electoral vote counting - I think you need a majority of both houses to set aside electoral votes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    Exactly a year ago today, Bitcoin hit a record high $67k.

    Today, it’s at $17,500, a two-year low, 12% down on the day and 74% down on last year’s peak.

    In unrelated news, massive crypto exchange FTX is thought to be insolvent, and about to be bought out by Binance.
  • kinabalu said:

    Per betfair the House is not a done deal. Freely available @ 1.07.

    Long if settled today; too short if stake is tied up till next Easter. Which applies is anyone's guess.
    It's Betfair, ffs. You'll be lucky if it's settled this millenium.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,365

    On a lighter note, I'm not sure what the significance of this is, but I had an amusing dream a couple of nights ago. I was attending an event where Ed Miliband was giving a speech on a new Labour policy: encouraging car sharing. As part of this, they would legislate to make it illegal to drive to a supermarket to do your shopping unless you'd first checked whether there were any car-sharing offers available, and had filled in a form showing that there weren't. When I pointed out to him that this would be a good way to lose the next election, he seemed rather surprised, and said that the policy had polled well.

    Do I need to get counselling?

    Only if either you or Ed was naked in the dream.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly a year ago today, Bitcoin hit a record high $67k.

    Today, it’s at $17,500, a two-year low, 12% down on the day and 74% down on last year’s peak.

    In unrelated news, massive crypto exchange FTX is thought to be insolvent, and about to be bought out by Binance.

    I see Bitcoin remains overpriced by at least $17,499.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,483
    edited November 9

    Trump managed to survive as a political player despite losing in 2020 and despite the Jan 6th insurrection, and has successfully managed to push out many of the Republicans in Congress who opposed his election steal lies.

    To conclude that an underwhelming set of midterm results is going to damage his nomination hopes is to analyse him like a conventional politician, and completely misunderstand the basis of his support, and the reality distortion field that he has erected.

    In Trump world, the midterms only show how badly America needs Trump to save them from Democrats stealing elections, and that he's the only one who can do it.

    I fear you are right. If 6th January did not shake his hold on the party, and it didn't, he's still hot favourite.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,857
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Another one for the ‘poor candidate choice’ pile.
    Hand picked poor choice.

    Trump-Backed Starling Bo Hines Falls in Surprise Loss in North Carolina House Race
    Bines was seen as a "young star"in the Republican Party. Then, he lost.
    https://newrepublic.com/post/168684/trump-backed-starling-bo-hines-loses-north-carolina-house-race
    ...In a major loss, Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines has lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district. FiveThirtyEight had predicted Hines to have a 77 percent chance of winning.

    Nickel leads Hines 51.32 percent to 48.68 percent, with all precincts reporting.

    Hines, whose campaign received over $775,000 from his family’s trust fund, enjoyed support from former President Donald Trump, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and outgoing North Carolina Representative Madison Cawthorn....
    At least Hines conceded gracefully.

    Trump is toast now. Everyone sees he is a loser.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    So if GOP fail to take Senate

    Trump charges re storming of Congress look more likely to proceed?

    I think it's the same outlook either way: They'll likely charge him with whatever they're sure they can prove, which will probably be pretty minor if anything, and it'll get tied up in procedural legal arguments until after 2024.
    I think you underestimate the chances of his being convicted on criminal charges.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,365
    edited November 9
    kinabalu said:

    Yeah it was obvious an overweight 76 year old would struggle to maintain an election.

    Thinking ahead personally, once every 4 years then moaning that it’s been stolen when it’s a flop seems like a plan.

    Hoping not to be overweight or orange mind.
    Slip in a midterm?
    ‘It’s Morning Glory Again in America..’
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    kinabalu said:

    Yeah it was obvious an overweight 76 year old would struggle to maintain an election.

    Thinking ahead personally, once every 4 years then moaning that it’s been stolen when it’s a flop seems like a plan.

    Hoping not to be overweight or orange mind.
    Slip in a midterm?
    It’s Morning Glory Again in America..’
    What’s the Story?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,483

    I see once again being woke is such an electoral liability and being anti woke leads to electoral victories, oh.

    I'll say it again people don't give a shit about trans rights, either way, when they facing a choice between heating or eating, it's the economy stupid.

    People respond to it. But it cannot be all or the main thing you focus on. That just looks obsessed, rather than sensible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Another one for the ‘poor candidate choice’ pile.
    Hand picked poor choice.

    Trump-Backed Starling Bo Hines Falls in Surprise Loss in North Carolina House Race
    Bines was seen as a "young star"in the Republican Party. Then, he lost.
    https://newrepublic.com/post/168684/trump-backed-starling-bo-hines-loses-north-carolina-house-race
    ...In a major loss, Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines has lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district. FiveThirtyEight had predicted Hines to have a 77 percent chance of winning.

    Nickel leads Hines 51.32 percent to 48.68 percent, with all precincts reporting.

    Hines, whose campaign received over $775,000 from his family’s trust fund, enjoyed support from former President Donald Trump, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and outgoing North Carolina Representative Madison Cawthorn....
    At least Hines conceded gracefully.

    Trump is toast now. Everyone sees he is a loser.
    Trump will see this as a failure by the GOP strategists who convinced him not to announce his candidacy pre-election.
  • How's Kari Lake doing?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402
    kinabalu said:

    So did any PBers call this Dem overperformance and make good betting profits?

    I didn't. I'm up on a "buying money" House bet and I'm up some more assuming Trump does announce but I lost on the Senate - mediocre profit overall for the amount I staked and the risk I took.

    Probably up overall provided there are no last minute swings. Laid GOP Senate majority (which iirc someone tipped here) and played in some state races when the entrails and tarot cards showed that banning abortion was going down badly. Not enough to risk turning the heating on.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,585
    edited November 9

    On a lighter note, I'm not sure what the significance of this is, but I had an amusing dream a couple of nights ago. I was attending an event where Ed Miliband was giving a speech on a new Labour policy: encouraging car sharing. As part of this, they would legislate to make it illegal to drive to a supermarket to do your shopping unless you'd first checked whether there were any car-sharing offers available, and had filled in a form showing that there weren't. When I pointed out to him that this would be a good way to lose the next election, he seemed rather surprised, and said that the policy had polled well.

    Do I need to get counselling?

    No. It's really a betting post dream, in which you (and all of us) are reminded there is no limit to the number of ways there are to lose an election.

    The one in your dream is less silly than TM's effort in 2017 - (leave the very rich and poor to themselves, but bankrupt the middling sort Tory voter).

    And less silly than the Tories current plan (show the middle classes that as they grow a little poorer that can be sure the party has no morals and no scruples, are rats in a sack and the membership want to vote Truss or someone as PM).

    The ways to win an election are so few that, like the premiership, only a maximum of one can do it at a time.

    Bet accordingly

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    Looks like Trump, who lives rent free in many PBers' heads – has, to use an Americanism, taken the L big style again this morning.

    What a chump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    How's Kari Lake doing?

    51/49 behind, but catching as the rural votes come in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    The big challenge for Sunak right now is to find a replacement of the stature of Williamson.

    Big shoes to fill.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298

    On a lighter note, I'm not sure what the significance of this is, but I had an amusing dream a couple of nights ago. I was attending an event where Ed Miliband was giving a speech on a new Labour policy: encouraging car sharing. As part of this, they would legislate to make it illegal to drive to a supermarket to do your shopping unless you'd first checked whether there were any car-sharing offers available, and had filled in a form showing that there weren't. When I pointed out to him that this would be a good way to lose the next election, he seemed rather surprised, and said that the policy had polled well.

    Do I need to get counselling?

    Was it a pleasant dream or unpleasant? A relief to wake up and leave it or a disappointment?
  • On a lighter note, I'm not sure what the significance of this is, but I had an amusing dream a couple of nights ago. I was attending an event where Ed Miliband was giving a speech on a new Labour policy: encouraging car sharing. As part of this, they would legislate to make it illegal to drive to a supermarket to do your shopping unless you'd first checked whether there were any car-sharing offers available, and had filled in a form showing that there weren't. When I pointed out to him that this would be a good way to lose the next election, he seemed rather surprised, and said that the policy had polled well.

    Do I need to get counselling?

    What was the food served at this event?

    I hope it was bacon sandwiches.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,857
    Alistair said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Oh, wow, the Dems won NC-13.

    That... that is unexpected. The GOP won it by 37 points in 2020

    How? Was the GOP videotaped using the Stars and Stripes as toilet paper?
    Bo Hines, a 27-year-old political novice and onetime football phenomenon who enthralled former President Donald J. Trump, is facing Wiley Nickel, a two-term Democratic state senator and criminal defense lawyer who worked for President Barack Obama.
    Another one for the ‘poor candidate choice’ pile.
    Hand picked poor choice.

    Trump-Backed Starling Bo Hines Falls in Surprise Loss in North Carolina House Race
    Bines was seen as a "young star"in the Republican Party. Then, he lost.
    https://newrepublic.com/post/168684/trump-backed-starling-bo-hines-loses-north-carolina-house-race
    ...In a major loss, Trump-backed Republican Bo Hines has lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district. FiveThirtyEight had predicted Hines to have a 77 percent chance of winning.

    Nickel leads Hines 51.32 percent to 48.68 percent, with all precincts reporting.

    Hines, whose campaign received over $775,000 from his family’s trust fund, enjoyed support from former President Donald Trump, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and outgoing North Carolina Representative Madison Cawthorn....
    At least Hines conceded gracefully.

    Trump is toast now. Everyone sees he is a loser.
    Trump will see this as a failure by the GOP strategists who convinced him not to announce his candidacy pre-election.
    No doubt, but is he going to convince anyone outside of fully paid-up members of Trump world? He's clearly a loser, and a big drag on Republicans' chances.

    Unfortunately, even without him, the Republican Party are fully committed to the destruction of human civilization, so it's only a fleeting moment of pleasure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    The big challenge for Sunak right now is to find a replacement of the stature of Williamson.

    Big shoes to fill.

    Clown shoes always are....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333

    The big challenge for Sunak right now is to find a replacement of the stature of Williamson.

    Big shoes to fill.

    Surely his spider is the obvious choice.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,481
    Nigelb said:

    So if GOP fail to take Senate

    Trump charges re storming of Congress look more likely to proceed?

    I think it's the same outlook either way: They'll likely charge him with whatever they're sure they can prove, which will probably be pretty minor if anything, and it'll get tied up in procedural legal arguments until after 2024.
    I think you underestimate the chances of his being convicted on criminal charges.
    I can totally see him being convicted on criminal charges but the problem is, how long does that take? Look how long he's managed to stall the document inquiry, which should be an open-and-shut case. He's got a tame judge who will make up any old shit for him, and anything to do with the presidency gives you lots of potentially novel issues that you can spend ages arguing about.

    If they took him into custody and the judge denied bail then it would be be a big deal, but I can't see that happening, in which case the only consequence before 2024 is PR-related.
  • I once had a dream about Ed Miliband in April 2015, in this dream I dreamt that Ed Miliband as Prime Minister was going to install a very large stone tablet into Downing Street with Labour's manifesto pledges carved on the tablet.

    I'm fairly certain my drink was spiked that night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,663
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly a year ago today, Bitcoin hit a record high $67k.

    Today, it’s at $17,500, a two-year low, 12% down on the day and 74% down on last year’s peak.

    In unrelated news, massive crypto exchange FTX is thought to be insolvent, and about to be bought out by Binance.

    It will be interesting to see how the rest of crypto crashes. It seems quite popular with novice "investors".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited November 9

    Sandpit said:

    Exactly a year ago today, Bitcoin hit a record high $67k.

    Today, it’s at $17,500, a two-year low, 12% down on the day and 74% down on last year’s peak.

    In unrelated news, massive crypto exchange FTX is thought to be insolvent, and about to be bought out by Binance.

    I see Bitcoin remains overpriced by at least $17,499.
    I'D BUY THAT FOR A DOLLAR
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,483

    The big challenge for Sunak right now is to find a replacement of the stature of Williamson.

    Big shoes to fill.

    Do they still make cardboard standees?

    There's always wax figures.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,298
    edited November 9
    kle4 said:

    Trump managed to survive as a political player despite losing in 2020 and despite the Jan 6th insurrection, and has successfully managed to push out many of the Republicans in Congress who opposed his election steal lies.

    To conclude that an underwhelming set of midterm results is going to damage his nomination hopes is to analyse him like a conventional politician, and completely misunderstand the basis of his support, and the reality distortion field that he has erected.

    In Trump world, the midterms only show how badly America needs Trump to save them from Democrats stealing elections, and that he's the only one who can do it.

    I fear you are right. If 6th January did not shake his hold on the party, and it didn't, he's still hot favourite.
    He's fav but not particularly "hot". Trump 2.4, RDS 2.8 for the GOP nomination.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,132

    Sandpit said:

    Exactly a year ago today, Bitcoin hit a record high $67k.

    Today, it’s at $17,500, a two-year low, 12% down on the day and 74% down on last year’s peak.

    In unrelated news, massive crypto exchange FTX is thought to be insolvent, and about to be bought out by Binance.

    I see Bitcoin remains overpriced by at least $17,499.
    As an avowed Crypto disliker, I will say that Bitcoin has /some/ value. If you add up all the money laundering, ransomeware paying and drug buying that it enables a certain amount of value is “in flight” as BTC at any one time before it gets converted back to spendable assets. That puts a floor on the trading value (not the realisable value of all BTC if you had to sell it all at once) of BTC.

    Not a very high floor mind.
This discussion has been closed.