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After sacking her Chancellor the money goes on a 2022 Truss exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    Penultimate time we see Liz in public as PM. The next time will be the resignation speech outside No. 10.

    Probably on Monday lunchtime.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Hunt has to go. And go now.

    That seems a bit sudden. He was only appointed this afternoon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    Can’t we make rules/ tweaks to ensure that the membership don’t ever get to choose a PM again. The Truss case is such a slam dunk

    But don't forget 113 (virtually 1/3) of Tory MPs voted for her rather than Sunak or Mordaunt - they have some responsibility too
    You also cannot stop the membership electing a PM from opposition even if you can from government.

    Blair, Cameron and Johnson were all elected by party members and all won general elections
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    edited October 2022
    Signs of weakness from Putin?

    @maxseddon
    Putin says 220,000 Russians have been drafted into the army and the mobilization drive will be over "in two weeks"

    "We never set ourselves the goal of destroying Ukraine." He adds a there is "no need for massive airstrikes" on Ukraine after Monday's.


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580903439584104448
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Penultimate time we see Liz in public as PM. The next time will be the resignation speech outside No. 10.

    Probably on Monday lunchtime.

    She needs an intervention, on compassionate grounds
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    This keeps coming up - there is no way that Leon is Heathener.
    There bloody is way, he as good as admitted it before her last long absence.
    Like I say, he hints/admits it because it flatters to be thought of as being capable of pulling that off.

    It's a No. Trust me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have to hand it to the ERG, they backed a Remainer, Truss over a Leaver, Sunak and ignored those who wanted to back Leaver Badenoch.

    They now have a Remainer as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor, Boris' opponent from 2019 of course and a staunch May loyalist.

    One can't help but laugh at Mark Francois who is responsible for this!

    There is only one person responsible and that is your toxic hero Johnson
    No. Boris won the Tories this majority and ERG backers like Baker turning on him and Francois then ordering the ERG to back Truss has meant they have now seen a Leaver PM and Leaver Chancellor in Boris and Sunak replaced by Remainer Truss as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor.

    This now looks more like it could be more like the old May government than the Boris government
    Boris toxic and irresponsible behaviour led us to today

    And by the way you voted remain
    No, the likes of you forcing him out over partygate led to today and a bigger Starmer lead than ever there was under Boris.

    Yes I did vote Remain and will remain loyal to this government (as I was to the May government) and Hunt is a serious figure for the Treasury and a proper Tory but I also respected the Leave vote and it was only Boris who delivered Brexit
    I didn’t force him out

    Boris behaviour became so toxic he was unacceptable to the vast majority of ordinary people
    HYUFD is like a babysitting agency which sends you a heroin-addicted thief whom you reject, so they send you a convicted paedophile instead. When you complain about the paedophile they say Well, you should've stuck with the thief.
    Colourful but correct.

    Boris remains unsuitable, and in a personal level not policy which is most remarkable. You have to be really sleazy for MPs to not look the other way.
    This all starts with Boris. He is the one that has triggered the destruction of this Government with his dishonesty, corruption, damage to the constitution and gutting of many of the sensible Conservatives from the party.

    One could argue it goes back to Cameron re the Referendum, but I think that is unfair. He probably had little choice and although Brexit was a near impossible task it could have been done much better and without all the subsequent Boris stuff that was not Brexit related.

    As far as I am concerned this all lays at Boris's door. Truss is simply an inevitable corollary of it all.
    The economic problems have two major proximate causes - Russia's invasion of Ukraine (the Tory response being supported by all parties) and lockdown (the Tory response being opposed by all parties only for not being big enough).
  • Just laid Truss to be out this year at 1.78. Still far greener if she goes this year but now green either way.

    That performance she gave just now had all the hallmarks of someone who knows they do not have much longer in the job but have to go through the motions until the moment of departure comes.

    It was perfunctory, uninformative, and bland. The writing is on the wall, and she knows it.

    Definitely gone by the end of the year, Morris; maybe even by the end of next week.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    It's a semi-plausible theory.
    But I'm unconvinced, as he can't usually maintain a different character for more than a day without being obvious.
    The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo. But he'd like it to be thought so - because it takes considerable skill to pull off an alter ego for any period of time and it's not the same skill as being (which he is) a vivid and charismatic writer.
    "The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo."

    Yep - 100% - you go down and I'm going down with you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    This keeps coming up - there is no way that Leon is Heathener.
    Er....why?

    One of the greatest challenges for a male writer is to write women.

    "Heathener" is just a writing exercise, for when he is bored.
    Nope. It's bollocks. 100%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    I think Hunt has some of the same weaknesses as Truss, despite being a more polished performer: opportunistic, intellectually shallow, and overly prone to ideological fads and telling people what he thinks they want to hear.

    A bit of polish would go a long way at the moment.
    How about

    image
    That’s a tache the legend that is Graham Gooch would have been proud of.
    With eyebrows that make Denis Healey look average.

    Talk about a fierce face.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Would be rather good if Truss took Cruella Braveman and other croneys when she goes.
  • OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    CONFIRMED:

    Jeremy Hunt is the new chancellor

    He'll be announced shortly at Liz Truss's press conference https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580890171213766656

    Don't understand this decision.
    The penny has finally dropped that they need to get the sensible remainers back in to sort out the mess. I am relieved, was dreading it being Redwood or Rees-Mogg. Truss is back-tracking so fast you can see the sparks flying.
    This has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

    Don't be a dick.
    No need to resort to personal abuse because someone sees things differently.

    I clearly see a correlation between John Major's "bastards" taking over the Tory party/membership and the shambles in which we now find ourselves in.

    You cannot separate Brexit from the politicians that led the campaigns to get us out. I have been convinced from the outset that this is how it would end up. I can barely think of a competent Brexiteer, Gove possibly.

    Take a good hard look at the calibre of what we've has since the "Get Brexit Done" election - Johnson, Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg, Kwatang, Dorries, Raab the list goes on and on. Practically every one has proved to be a disaster in office. At least we can be thankful that Farage and Banks weren't eligible for high office.

    On the other side of the coin lots of competent Tory politicians headed for the exits.

    It is no surprise whatsoever that Truss has panicked and gone for one of the few sane senior Tories left to try and save her skin.. It was widely believed that Hunt had no chance in the leadership election because of his Remainer views and yet here we are a few short weeks later and he's promoted to the CoE and favourite to be next leader.

    If Brexit is being discredited (as I believe it is) then it is the Brexiteers themselves that are trashing it. 5 years from now we will be back in the single market at the very least.
    I agree completely. The connections, the process of one thing leading to the next, the lunatics now running the asylum, it seems so obvious to me. The people who pushed for decades to Leave (other than Truss, who has the zeal of the convert) have been in power since, what, 2019? And they've screwed everything up. Everything they've promised hasn't happened. We are now living through Project Fear, it just took a bit longer than Osborne said it would.

    Brexit has poisoned everything.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    I think Hunt has some of the same weaknesses as Truss, despite being a more polished performer: opportunistic, intellectually shallow, and overly prone to ideological fads and telling people what he thinks they want to hear.

    A bit of polish would go a long way at the moment.
    How about

    image
    That’s a tache the legend that is Graham Gooch would have been proud of.
    I'll be having that to put on a long stick to clean my solar panels with, I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,723
    All come a bit too soon for Johnson. He was hoping to have a year making tons of cash on the quiet before running again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited October 2022
    Driver said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have to hand it to the ERG, they backed a Remainer, Truss over a Leaver, Sunak and ignored those who wanted to back Leaver Badenoch.

    They now have a Remainer as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor, Boris' opponent from 2019 of course and a staunch May loyalist.

    One can't help but laugh at Mark Francois who is responsible for this!

    There is only one person responsible and that is your toxic hero Johnson
    No. Boris won the Tories this majority and ERG backers like Baker turning on him and Francois then ordering the ERG to back Truss has meant they have now seen a Leaver PM and Leaver Chancellor in Boris and Sunak replaced by Remainer Truss as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor.

    This now looks more like it could be more like the old May government than the Boris government
    Boris toxic and irresponsible behaviour led us to today

    And by the way you voted remain
    No, the likes of you forcing him out over partygate led to today and a bigger Starmer lead than ever there was under Boris.

    Yes I did vote Remain and will remain loyal to this government (as I was to the May government) and Hunt is a serious figure for the Treasury and a proper Tory but I also respected the Leave vote and it was only Boris who delivered Brexit
    I didn’t force him out

    Boris behaviour became so toxic he was unacceptable to the vast majority of ordinary people
    HYUFD is like a babysitting agency which sends you a heroin-addicted thief whom you reject, so they send you a convicted paedophile instead. When you complain about the paedophile they say Well, you should've stuck with the thief.
    Colourful but correct.

    Boris remains unsuitable, and in a personal level not policy which is most remarkable. You have to be really sleazy for MPs to not look the other way.
    This all starts with Boris. He is the one that has triggered the destruction of this Government with his dishonesty, corruption, damage to the constitution and gutting of many of the sensible Conservatives from the party.

    One could argue it goes back to Cameron re the Referendum, but I think that is unfair. He probably had little choice and although Brexit was a near impossible task it could have been done much better and without all the subsequent Boris stuff that was not Brexit related.

    As far as I am concerned this all lays at Boris's door. Truss is simply an inevitable corollary of it all.
    The economic problems have two major proximate causes - Russia's invasion of Ukraine (the Tory response being supported by all parties) and lockdown (the Tory response being opposed by all parties only for not being big enough).
    That is fair until the point we arrive at the OBS- free- mini-non-budget-economic-statement. That was a fiasco entirely of Kwarteng's making. It exacebated an already dangerous situation, and has continued so to do.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited October 2022
    CD13 said:

    I have time for Vicky Young, but even she was struggling to explain the Truss performance. Being PM isn't for everyone, and intellgence isn't essential but self-awareness is.

    Boris had arrogance on his side, but I'm not sure what Liz has.

    I do feel sorry for her because it must but awful for someone with so many "limitations" to become Prime Minister and then have it all implode within a few days and have the entire country pointing and laughing at you.

    It's a shame her husband or daughters didn't take her to one side at the start and say sorry, but please don't so this. You're an amazing person but you just aren't a Prime Minister.

    Why do so many politicians think they are better than they are? And why do few have a "Denis Thatcher" to give them counsel?
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    We must share the same AI neural net or whatever Leon has created us with. I concur. She will now have a slightly different set of enemy Tory MPs, but they will be a bit less united and co-ordinated than they were this morning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    I really want the group of plotters to make good their threat to call publicly for her resignation. Given the notorious vertebrae shortage amongst Tory MPs, I am not holding my breath.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    ping said:

    Hunt has to go. And go now.

    Why?
    He has failed. The knives are out. He must go. And go now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Joint investigation into attaches on nordstream pipeline called off.

    https://twitter.com/fideliusschmid/status/1580895348910075905?s=61&t=nTZMDb6DEWBK_1WIavpUOg
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Hi all, been busy, anything happening today?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    If Just Stop Oil make it impossible to get near paintings in art galleries I'm going to try and create as much co2 as I possibly can before I die.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Just come out of a meeting and looked up the presser.

    Tbh, the speech wasn't terrible, nothing inspiring, not brilliantly delivered, but said what had to be said, took the only road she realistically had - re-iterate the mission but admit that the how must change.

    But the press element was terrible: robotic repetition of the speech, not the merest flicker of acknowledgement of the political situation, the bizarre errrm pauses picking out the journals before naming them and the abrupt conclusion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Scott_xP said:

    What all Tory MPs know: Liz Truss now has the Ed Miliband problem. As he knifed his brother for the Labour leadership, she has hatcheted her best mate to try to retain power.

    It's worse. Nothing grates more on The Apprentice than when the losing Project Manager fingers someone on their team to be sacked. It's boos of disgust and derision and objects thrown at the screen in every living room in the land when that happens. People just hate it. It rankles. Liz Truss is that Project Manager.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    This looks very significant, if it's an accurate portrayal of the situation:

    Jordan Schneider @jordanschnyc

    Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

    One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.


    https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889343417233409

    The whole thread is worth reading.

    If true, the timing is pretty good, as the world faces a semiconductor glut - for the first time in years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    ydoethur said:

    Hunt has to go. And go now.

    That seems a bit sudden. He was only appointed this afternoon.
    The Hunt has become the Hunted.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have to hand it to the ERG, they backed a Remainer, Truss over a Leaver, Sunak and ignored those who wanted to back Leaver Badenoch.

    They now have a Remainer as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor, Boris' opponent from 2019 of course and a staunch May loyalist.

    One can't help but laugh at Mark Francois who is responsible for this!

    There is only one person responsible and that is your toxic hero Johnson
    No. Boris won the Tories this majority and ERG backers like Baker turning on him and Francois then ordering the ERG to back Truss has meant they have now seen a Leaver PM and Leaver Chancellor in Boris and Sunak replaced by Remainer Truss as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor.

    This now looks more like it could be more like the old May government than the Boris government
    Boris toxic and irresponsible behaviour led us to today

    And by the way you voted remain
    No, the likes of you forcing him out over partygate led to today and a bigger Starmer lead than ever there was under Boris.

    Yes I did vote Remain and will remain loyal to this government (as I was to the May government) and Hunt is a serious figure for the Treasury and a proper Tory but I also respected the Leave vote and it was only Boris who delivered Brexit
    I didn’t force him out

    Boris behaviour became so toxic he was unacceptable to the vast majority of ordinary people
    HYUFD is like a babysitting agency which sends you a heroin-addicted thief whom you reject, so they send you a convicted paedophile instead. When you complain about the paedophile they say Well, you should've stuck with the thief.
    Colourful but correct.

    Boris remains unsuitable, and in a personal level not policy which is most remarkable. You have to be really sleazy for MPs to not look the other way.
    This all starts with Boris. He is the one that has triggered the destruction of this Government with his dishonesty, corruption, damage to the constitution and gutting of many of the sensible Conservatives from the party.

    One could argue it goes back to Cameron re the Referendum, but I think that is unfair. He probably had little choice and although Brexit was a near impossible task it could have been done much better and without all the subsequent Boris stuff that was not Brexit related.

    As far as I am concerned this all lays at Boris's door. Truss is simply an inevitable corollary of it all.
    The economic problems have two major proximate causes - Russia's invasion of Ukraine (the Tory response being supported by all parties) and lockdown (the Tory response being opposed by all parties only for not being big enough).
    That is fair until the point we arrive at the mini-non-budget-economic-statement. That was a fiasco entirely of Kwarteng's making. It exacebated an already dangerous situation, and has continued so to do.
    True to an extent, although I would suggest that it exposed the problems that already existed but were hidden much more than it created new problems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Driver said:

    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have to hand it to the ERG, they backed a Remainer, Truss over a Leaver, Sunak and ignored those who wanted to back Leaver Badenoch.

    They now have a Remainer as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor, Boris' opponent from 2019 of course and a staunch May loyalist.

    One can't help but laugh at Mark Francois who is responsible for this!

    There is only one person responsible and that is your toxic hero Johnson
    No. Boris won the Tories this majority and ERG backers like Baker turning on him and Francois then ordering the ERG to back Truss has meant they have now seen a Leaver PM and Leaver Chancellor in Boris and Sunak replaced by Remainer Truss as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor.

    This now looks more like it could be more like the old May government than the Boris government
    Boris toxic and irresponsible behaviour led us to today

    And by the way you voted remain
    No, the likes of you forcing him out over partygate led to today and a bigger Starmer lead than ever there was under Boris.

    Yes I did vote Remain and will remain loyal to this government (as I was to the May government) and Hunt is a serious figure for the Treasury and a proper Tory but I also respected the Leave vote and it was only Boris who delivered Brexit
    I didn’t force him out

    Boris behaviour became so toxic he was unacceptable to the vast majority of ordinary people
    HYUFD is like a babysitting agency which sends you a heroin-addicted thief whom you reject, so they send you a convicted paedophile instead. When you complain about the paedophile they say Well, you should've stuck with the thief.
    Colourful but correct.

    Boris remains unsuitable, and in a personal level not policy which is most remarkable. You have to be really sleazy for MPs to not look the other way.
    This all starts with Boris. He is the one that has triggered the destruction of this Government with his dishonesty, corruption, damage to the constitution and gutting of many of the sensible Conservatives from the party.

    One could argue it goes back to Cameron re the Referendum, but I think that is unfair. He probably had little choice and although Brexit was a near impossible task it could have been done much better and without all the subsequent Boris stuff that was not Brexit related.

    As far as I am concerned this all lays at Boris's door. Truss is simply an inevitable corollary of it all.
    The economic problems have two major proximate causes - Russia's invasion of Ukraine (the Tory response being supported by all parties) and lockdown (the Tory response being opposed by all parties only for not being big enough).
    That is fair until the point we arrive at the OBS- free- mini-non-budget-economic-statement. That was a fiasco entirely of Kwarteng's making. It exacebated an already dangerous situation, and has continued so to do.
    Truss's making. He was her instrument.

    A lot of this comes down to length of time in office, Boris destroying credibility, and a crunch point caused by global factors. But her choices made things so much worse.

    And you can tell she thought it was so clever too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    I really want the group of plotters to make good their threat to call publicly for her resignation. Given the notorious vertebrae shortage amongst Tory MPs, I am not holding my breath.
    Hmmm. My MP thinks there will be a new PM. And he is in the Whatsapp groups...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What all Tory MPs know: Liz Truss now has the Ed Miliband problem. As he knifed his brother for the Labour leadership, she has hatcheted her best mate to try to retain power.

    It's worse. Nothing grates more on The Apprentice than when the losing Project Manager fingers someone on their team to be sacked. It's boos of disgust and derision and objects thrown at the screen in every living room in the land when that happens. People just hate it. It rankles. Liz Truss is that Project Manager.
    Leaked footage from inside Downing Street as they plan the new budget. https://twitter.com/GrantTucker/status/1580929121722720256/video/1
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Signs of weakness from Putin?

    @maxseddon
    Putin says 220,000 Russians have been drafted into the army and the mobilization drive will be over "in two weeks"

    "We never set ourselves the goal of destroying Ukraine." He adds a there is "no need for massive airstrikes" on Ukraine after Monday's.


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580903439584104448

    Translation:
    - Anyone who we could mobilise has run away
    - Ukraine are giving us a good kicking
    - We have run out of missiles
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    That's a little bit like saying the tacks of a sailing boat undermine the infantile theory of the weather.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    It's a semi-plausible theory.
    But I'm unconvinced, as he can't usually maintain a different character for more than a day without being obvious.
    The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo. But he'd like it to be thought so - because it takes considerable skill to pull off an alter ego for any period of time and it's not the same skill as being (which he is) a vivid and charismatic writer.
    "The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo."

    Yep - 100% - you go down and I'm going down with you.
    Mystic Rose was Leon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    The only choice now is to make everyone in Britain Prime Minister simultaneously

  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    It's very volatile, and therefore very hard to read, but I tend to agree. All the drawbacks of MPs acting to get rid of her still apply, and it is still the case that there's no compelling alternative. A zombie government staggering on, with Hunt effectively running it on a caretaker basis, looks quite likely to me. But who knows?
  • kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    Fully agree. Tories will bottle it. Probably by failing to unite around any particular candidate. Suppose that may lead to a farcical leadership contest but that's fine as the market rules clearly state that any period as acting party leader will count as part of her tenure.

    No way should this market be 1.78 offered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    GIN1138 said:

    CD13 said:

    I have time for Vicky Young, but even she was struggling to explain the Truss performance. Being PM isn't for everyone, and intellgence isn't essential but self-awareness is.

    Boris had arrogance on his side, but I'm not sure what Liz has.

    I do feel sorry for her because it must but awful for someone with so many "limitations" to become Prime Minister and then have it all implode within a few days and have the entire country pointing and laughing at you.

    It's a shame her husband or daughters didn't take her to one side at the start and say sorry, but please don't so this. You're an amazing person but you just aren't a Prime Minister.

    Why do so many politicians think they are better than they are? And why do few have a "Denis Thatcher" to give them counsel?
    Confidence in their own ability and judgement helps them rise, where doubters fall.

    Many are pretty impressive. But they have no chance of telling when they've risen enough.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited October 2022
    Watching that press conference and I've come to a profound realisation.

    Gordon Brown is no longer the worst PM of my lifetime.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Leon said:

    The only choice now is to make everyone in Britain Prime Minister simultaneously

    How would you guard against the entire population resigning en masse?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    I really want the group of plotters to make good their threat to call publicly for her resignation. Given the notorious vertebrae shortage amongst Tory MPs, I am not holding my breath.
    Hmmm. My MP thinks there will be a new PM. And he is in the Whatsapp groups...
    Tell him to grow a pair and hoist the Jolly Roger then. The anonymous briefing is pathetic.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    edited October 2022

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    It's a semi-plausible theory.
    But I'm unconvinced, as he can't usually maintain a different character for more than a day without being obvious.
    The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo. But he'd like it to be thought so - because it takes considerable skill to pull off an alter ego for any period of time and it's not the same skill as being (which he is) a vivid and charismatic writer.
    "The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo."

    Yep - 100% - you go down and I'm going down with you.
    Mystic Rose was Leon.
    Yes, I know that allegation was made at the time and it carried-forward to Heathener but I've never bought it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    They can't afford to keep her in place.

    Literally.

    The markets have not been appeased by the Kwasi blood sacrifice...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    I really want the group of plotters to make good their threat to call publicly for her resignation. Given the notorious vertebrae shortage amongst Tory MPs, I am not holding my breath.
    It takes months for that sort of thing. Years, usually, but things are moving fast.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Come on @Heathener you say you have the post. In front of you. So just cut and paste. Takes seconds. And link, please.

    Surprised to see you so animated about being accused of saying something a bit silly.
    I’m travelling around the world for free. Again. Always makes me feisty

    But, really, PB-era can’t go around accusing others of lying and saying “I have the proof right here” and then not actually provide the proof

    We have PB standards and it has always been up to me, in the end, to uphold them

    @heathener says she has the exact quote I made, unironically calling liz truss the “Tory saviour, a diamond in the rough” and much else. So all she has to is paste it and link it
    Why does she have to? Fuck all will happen if she doesn't.
    No, it's the only way to shut him up.
    Could have taken up the best part of the next half dozen threads otherwise.
    Leon is Heathener ffs. The whole thing is just him having a bizarre onanistic chat with himself. It's obviously a boring flight.
    It's a semi-plausible theory.
    But I'm unconvinced, as he can't usually maintain a different character for more than a day without being obvious.
    The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo. But he'd like it to be thought so - because it takes considerable skill to pull off an alter ego for any period of time and it's not the same skill as being (which he is) a vivid and charismatic writer.
    "The Heathener construct is Mystic Rose and there's a 0% chance of it being Leon imo."

    Yep - 100% - you go down and I'm going down with you.
    Mystic Rose was Leon.
    Leon's mum.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Pro_Rata said:

    Just come out of a meeting and looked up the presser.

    Tbh, the speech wasn't terrible, nothing inspiring, not brilliantly delivered, but said what had to be said, took the only road she realistically had - re-iterate the mission but admit that the how must change.

    But the press element was terrible: robotic repetition of the speech, not the merest flicker of acknowledgement of the political situation, the bizarre errrm pauses picking out the journals before naming them and the abrupt conclusion.

    She looked shell-shocked.
  • The reversal of the corporation tax cut is as stupid a move by Truss as could have been, especially when combined with keeping the removal on the cap on bankers' bonuses.

    What's been lost in the stereotyping "it's a big bung for businesses" is that plenty of self-employed people - including myself - set up limited companies to reduce the tax burden. Yes, we may pay lower taxes overall but then we don't have paid holidays, sickness cover, access to work supplemented pension schemes or - especially for those in the state sector - defined benefit pensions.

    Now, for those of who of us who take dividends out, we have effectively had 6p in the pound wiped off our dividend payout potential.

    The big companies will be fine, they will pay their accountants to find ways to reduce the tax rate. Small companies - not so much.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The mix of arrogance and amateurishness, contempt for knowledge, comic denial of established fact, the triumph of bullshit over the public good.

    The roots go back a long way (class and empire), but it all blossomed after Brexit.

    It's all inextricably linked to Brexit.


    https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1580932680015020033
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159
    Scott_xP said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What all Tory MPs know: Liz Truss now has the Ed Miliband problem. As he knifed his brother for the Labour leadership, she has hatcheted her best mate to try to retain power.

    It's worse. Nothing grates more on The Apprentice than when the losing Project Manager fingers someone on their team to be sacked. It's boos of disgust and derision and objects thrown at the screen in every living room in the land when that happens. People just hate it. It rankles. Liz Truss is that Project Manager.
    Leaked footage from inside Downing Street as they plan the new budget. https://twitter.com/GrantTucker/status/1580929121722720256/video/1
    Ha! You think you've done an original but it so rarely is.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993

    Just laid Truss to be out this year at 1.78. Still far greener if she goes this year but now green either way.

    That performance she gave just now had all the hallmarks of someone who knows they do not have much longer in the job but have to go through the motions until the moment of departure comes.

    It was perfunctory, uninformative, and bland. The writing is on the wall, and she knows it.

    Definitely gone by the end of the year, Morris; maybe even by the end of next week.
    Many thought that, despite it being the constitutional position, allowing the Conservative Party to choose the PM somehow wasn't right. Allowing to them (even if just the MPs this time) to have another go because they made a mess last time will be even more unacceptable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The question is not now can Hunt cling on, but can Hunt cling on until the weekend?

    Febrile times.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    If Truss limps on and Hunt starts to get a grip, he’s well placed to take over and the actual mistake - choosing Johnson over Hunt - will have been put right. But the risk is that Truss has to go so soon that Hunt hasn’t had a chance to establish himself as one of the top team.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 2022

    The reversal of the corporation tax cut is as stupid a move by Truss as could have been, especially when combined with keeping the removal on the cap on bankers' bonuses.

    What's been lost in the stereotyping "it's a big bung for businesses" is that plenty of self-employed people - including myself - set up limited companies to reduce the tax burden. Yes, we may pay lower taxes overall but then we don't have paid holidays, sickness cover, access to work supplemented pension schemes or - especially for those in the state sector - defined benefit pensions.

    Now, for those of who of us who take dividends out, we have effectively had 6p in the pound wiped off our dividend payout potential.

    The big companies will be fine, they will pay their accountants to find ways to reduce the tax rate. Small companies - not so much.

    You know it's still 19% under 50k right and that 25% is over 250k ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    The question is not now can Hunt cling on, but can Hunt cling on until the weekend?

    Febrile times.

    Just has to hope that no Captain Kirk comes along.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Taz said:

    Joint investigation into attaches on nordstream pipeline called off.

    https://twitter.com/fideliusschmid/status/1580895348910075905?s=61&t=nTZMDb6DEWBK_1WIavpUOg

    It's an open and shut case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    kjh said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You have to hand it to the ERG, they backed a Remainer, Truss over a Leaver, Sunak and ignored those who wanted to back Leaver Badenoch.

    They now have a Remainer as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor, Boris' opponent from 2019 of course and a staunch May loyalist.

    One can't help but laugh at Mark Francois who is responsible for this!

    There is only one person responsible and that is your toxic hero Johnson
    No. Boris won the Tories this majority and ERG backers like Baker turning on him and Francois then ordering the ERG to back Truss has meant they have now seen a Leaver PM and Leaver Chancellor in Boris and Sunak replaced by Remainer Truss as PM and Remainer Hunt as Chancellor.

    This now looks more like it could be more like the old May government than the Boris government
    Boris toxic and irresponsible behaviour led us to today

    And by the way you voted remain
    No, the likes of you forcing him out over partygate led to today and a bigger Starmer lead than ever there was under Boris.

    Yes I did vote Remain and will remain loyal to this government (as I was to the May government) and Hunt is a serious figure for the Treasury and a proper Tory but I also respected the Leave vote and it was only Boris who delivered Brexit
    I didn’t force him out

    Boris behaviour became so toxic he was unacceptable to the vast majority of ordinary people
    HYUFD is like a babysitting agency which sends you a heroin-addicted thief whom you reject, so they send you a convicted paedophile instead. When you complain about the paedophile they say Well, you should've stuck with the thief.
    Colourful but correct.

    Boris remains unsuitable, and in a personal level not policy which is most remarkable. You have to be really sleazy for MPs to not look the other way.
    This all starts with Boris. He is the one that has triggered the destruction of this Government with his dishonesty, corruption, damage to the constitution and gutting of many of the sensible Conservatives from the party.

    One could argue it goes back to Cameron re the Referendum, but I think that is unfair. He probably had little choice and although Brexit was a near impossible task it could have been done much better and without all the subsequent Boris stuff that was not Brexit related.

    As far as I am concerned this all lays at Boris's door. Truss is simply an inevitable corollary of it all.
    No, Boris was the one who delivered Brexit and with a trade deal and crushed your party and Labour in
    2019. Boris also delivered the vaccines and furlough with Sunak and had a broader cabinet than Truss' was.

    The mistake was getting rid of Boris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    This looks very significant, if it's an accurate portrayal of the situation:

    Jordan Schneider @jordanschnyc

    Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

    One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.


    https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889343417233409

    The whole thread is worth reading.

    Presumably a result of this from last week.
    No one really remarked on just how consequential this was going to be.

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    October 7, 2022
    www.bis.doc.gov
    BUREAU OF INDUSTRY AND SECURITY
    Office of Congressional and Public Affairs
    OCPA@bis.doc.gov
    Commerce Implements New Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

    https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file
    ...
    6.) Adds new license requirements for items destined to a semiconductor fabrication “facility” in the PRC that fabricates ICs meeting specified. Licenses for facilities owned by PRC entities will face a “presumption of denial,” and facilities owned by multinationals will be decided on a case-by-case basis. The relevant thresholds are as follows:
    • Logic chips with non-planar transistor architectures (I.e., FinFET or GAAFET) of 16nm or 14nm, or below;
    • DRAM memory chips of 18nm half-pitch or less;
    • NAND flash memory chips with 128 layers or more.
    7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license;
    8.) Adds new license requirements to export items to develop or produce semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related items; and
    9.) Establishes a Temporary General License (TGL) to minimize the short-term impact on the semiconductor supply chain by allowing specific, limited manufacturing activities related to items destined for use outside the PRC...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    not removing truss as leader feels like an act of bullying by tory mps.

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1580933976570867712
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    That's a little bit like saying the tacks of a sailing boat undermine the infantile theory of the weather.
    In this analogy of yours, the mini budget is the weather? When it makes shit all positive difference when big chunks of it get lopped off? Raising corporation tax to 25% was (in some bizarre twisted logic world) meant to be some genius piece of fiscal probity that would make a great deal more money from businesses whilst simultaneously not discouraging them from allowing the UK to tax their profits. Yet this dramatic reversal has (apparently) lead the pound to fall.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    Her best, possibly only, chance is that the Tory party is so split into different camps that finding a replacement that people could coalesce on is going to be difficult.

    There is, in my view, a pretty compelling argument that the government's economic policy is now Rishi's policy and that he should get a chance to implement it, just as she and Kwarteng got a chance to implement hers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    O/T but specially for @TSE - French win more battles than British/English (and logically the latter should be disqualified for cheating by getting the Irish, Scottish, Welsh added to their team during the match).

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580905346021097472?cxt=HHwWgIDU0ajCwPArAAAA
  • Carnyx said:

    O/T but specially for @TSE - French win more battles than British/English (and logically the latter should be disqualified for cheating by getting the Irish, Scottish, Welsh added to their team during the match).

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580905346021097472?cxt=HHwWgIDU0ajCwPArAAAA

    They haven't shown their workings.

    Sounds like fake news.

    Plus technically France were on the winning side of WWII.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Watching that press conference and I've come to a profound realisation.

    Gordon Brown is no longer the worst PM of my lifetime.

    I'm going to stop laughing at the Tories now. It's starting to feel like that point where you've had too many chocolates in one go and the pleasure morphs into shame and a slight trepidation.

    Looking forward to my fav tv politics person Gary Gibbon later though. He'll do this brilliantly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Just back from a 20 minute walk. Has she quit yet?

    I'm going against the grain, I think she's done enough to be a puppet PM until the new year.
    I really want the group of plotters to make good their threat to call publicly for her resignation. Given the notorious vertebrae shortage amongst Tory MPs, I am not holding my breath.
    Hmmm. My MP thinks there will be a new PM. And he is in the Whatsapp groups...
    Tell him to grow a pair and hoist the Jolly Roger then. The anonymous briefing is pathetic.
    If they are going to move, they'll need the weekend to coordinate.
    No point in doing anything public today.

    Not about growing a pair (though I'm sceptical about the bottle of the average Tory MP, too) - it's just practicalities.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Taz said:

    Joint investigation into attaches on nordstream pipeline called off.

    https://twitter.com/fideliusschmid/status/1580895348910075905?s=61&t=nTZMDb6DEWBK_1WIavpUOg

    I wonder which of Denmark or Germany Sweden thinks might leak to Russia….
  • Politically, Truss is only going as PM if the conservative MPs back a single candidate to replace her.

    As there is no obvious individual, she is not going.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    It may do but you shouldn't spring a radical change of policy without preparing the ground and building support first. Particularly a change that is electorally unpopular.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Watching that press conference and I've come to a profound realisation.

    Gordon Brown is no longer the worst PM of my lifetime.

    Steady.
    Has she sold our gold at the bottom of the market?
    Has she set up a financial regulatory system which was positively designed to have no one at the wheel when things went wrong?
    Has she had the first runs on UK banks since the 19th century?
    Has she set her party and the country up to have a GE and then run away from it?
    Has she hung on in Downing Street having clearly lost her majority (ok, that one might be arguable)?

    Given time, maybe but she has barely started.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but specially for @TSE - French win more battles than British/English (and logically the latter should be disqualified for cheating by getting the Irish, Scottish, Welsh added to their team during the match).

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580905346021097472?cxt=HHwWgIDU0ajCwPArAAAA

    Oh don’t give me that!

    “The creation of Modern France through expansion goes back to the establishment of a small kingdom in the area around Paris in the late tenth century and was not completed until the incorporation of Nice and Savoy in 1860. The existing "hexagon" was the result of a long series of wars and conquests involving the triumph of French language and culture over what once were autonomous and culturally distinctive communities. The assimilation of Gascons, Savoyards, Occitans, Basques, and others helped to sustain the myth that French overseas expansionism in the nineteenth century, especially to North and West Africa, was a continuation of the same assimilationist project.”
    —George M. Fredrickson, Standford University.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    It may do but you shouldn't spring a radical change of policy without preparing the ground and building support first. Particularly a change that is electorally unpopular.
    I agree.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    edited October 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    That's a little bit like saying the tacks of a sailing boat undermine the infantile theory of the weather.
    In this analogy of yours, the mini budget is the weather? When it makes shit all positive difference when big chunks of it get lopped off? Raising corporation tax to 25% was (in some bizarre twisted logic world) meant to be some genius piece of fiscal probity that would make a great deal more money from businesses whilst simultaneously not discouraging them from allowing the UK to tax their profits. Yet this dramatic reversal has (apparently) lead the pound to fall.
    No - the loss of confidence in the current administration is the weather, and has been since this kicked off (triggered, yes, by the 'fiscal event'). You've been hung up on the various details since then.

    FFS, the resignation of the Chancellor ought to make the problem obvious.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but specially for @TSE - French win more battles than British/English (and logically the latter should be disqualified for cheating by getting the Irish, Scottish, Welsh added to their team during the match).

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580905346021097472?cxt=HHwWgIDU0ajCwPArAAAA

    Like it for the info. Not that we're 10 behind. Is it too late for some VAR?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Uh oh - even staunch Truss backer Christopher Chope is in dismay after that presser.
    He tells Times Radio the Tory party is a 'laughing stock' & Conservative economic agenda is 'trashed', adding: 'I don’t know where to go from here frankly'
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2022-10-14/uk-s-truss-press-conference-on-uk-tax-plans
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The yield on 30-year bonds now indicates markets are more worried, not less, since Liz Truss sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, u-turned on £17bn a year of corporation tax and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. One can only speculate why. It may be to do with her performance in the presser: https://twitter.com/andyverity/status/1580925884915388416/photo/1

    Or perhaps it undermines the whole infantile theory about why the market turbulence happened in the first place.
    That's a little bit like saying the tacks of a sailing boat undermine the infantile theory of the weather.
    In this analogy of yours, the mini budget is the weather? When it makes shit all positive difference when big chunks of it get lopped off? Raising corporation tax to 25% was (in some bizarre twisted logic world) meant to be some genius piece of fiscal probity that would make a great deal more money from businesses whilst simultaneously not discouraging them from allowing the UK to tax their profits. Yet this dramatic reversal has (apparently) lead the pound to fall.
    No - the loss of confidence in the current administration is the weather, and has been since this kicked off (triggered, yes, by the 'fiscal event'). You've been hung up on the various details since then.

    FFS, the resignation of the Chancellor ought to make the problem obvious.
    The FFS should really be reserved for those making it up as they go along. If the pound had risen after the statement it would have been held up as proof positive that the corporation tax rise was a great policy.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but specially for @TSE - French win more battles than British/English (and logically the latter should be disqualified for cheating by getting the Irish, Scottish, Welsh added to their team during the match).

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580905346021097472?cxt=HHwWgIDU0ajCwPArAAAA

    They haven't shown their workings.

    Sounds like fake news.

    Plus technically France were on the winning side of WWII.
    Losing

    But when you win a 100 Years War which lasts 116 years that gives you quite a cushion
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Hunt has to go. And go now.

    That seems a bit sudden. He was only appointed this afternoon.
    The Hunt has become the Hunted.
    So you're saying it's time for him to pack it in?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    DavidL said:

    Watching that press conference and I've come to a profound realisation.

    Gordon Brown is no longer the worst PM of my lifetime.

    Steady.
    Has she sold our gold at the bottom of the market?
    ...
    What was that story about her agreeing a decade plus agreement with Norway on gas purchases ?
    Depending on the details, that might either be completely innocuous, or an order of magnitude worse than Brown's piece of foolishness.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "This is beyond a joke."

    Nicola Sturgeon wants a general election to be called, describing Liz Truss as a "lame duck prime minister".

    Live politics updates: https://trib.al/ecixuwi

    📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1580936743578001408/video/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    She’s a lame duck. A dead parrot. A gone gosling.

    Liz Truss rubbished the government she served for 10 years:
    now she’s disavowed the record of her own administration after six weeks; and thrown her political soulmate to the wolves who’ll come for her next.

    Probably very soon

    https://twitter.com/JPonpolitics/status/1580937247352057856
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    GIN1138 said:

    CD13 said:

    I have time for Vicky Young, but even she was struggling to explain the Truss performance. Being PM isn't for everyone, and intellgence isn't essential but self-awareness is.

    Boris had arrogance on his side, but I'm not sure what Liz has.

    I do feel sorry for her because it must but awful for someone with so many "limitations" to become Prime Minister and then have it all implode within a few days and have the entire country pointing and laughing at you.

    It's a shame her husband or daughters didn't take her to one side at the start and say sorry, but please don't so this. You're an amazing person but you just aren't a Prime Minister.
    Or even "You're clueless. What on earth makes you think you could be prime minister? Idiot!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Cabinet minister tells me "this isn't going to last". Hunt a good choice who'll appeal to the moderate wing of the party, but Truss is not performing "She abandoned one firewall with policy change, then another firewall sacking her chancellor. The only firewall left is her"

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1580937484891959297
  • That Truss lifeline in full:

    Will she go tomorrow?
    Will she go on Sunday?
    Will she go on Monday?
    Will she go on Tuesday?
    Will she go after another catastrofuck PMQs on Wednesday?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Politically, Truss is only going as PM if the conservative MPs back a single candidate to replace her.

    As there is no obvious individual, she is not going.

    Agreed, although it's not so much the lack of an individual as a lack of agreement amongst Tory MPs. There will always be a group of MPs who will rebel against any individual you can name, and put up their own candidate as an alternative.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited October 2022

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    CONFIRMED:

    Jeremy Hunt is the new chancellor

    He'll be announced shortly at Liz Truss's press conference https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580890171213766656

    Don't understand this decision.
    The penny has finally dropped that they need to get the sensible remainers back in to sort out the mess. I am relieved, was dreading it being Redwood or Rees-Mogg. Truss is back-tracking so fast you can see the sparks flying.
    This has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

    Don't be a dick.
    No need to resort to personal abuse because someone sees things differently.

    I clearly see a correlation between John Major's "bastards" taking over the Tory party/membership and the shambles in which we now find ourselves in.

    You cannot separate Brexit from the politicians that led the campaigns to get us out. I have been convinced from the outset that this is how it would end up. I can barely think of a competent Brexiteer, Gove possibly.

    Take a good hard look at the calibre of what we've has since the "Get Brexit Done" election - Johnson, Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg, Kwatang, Dorries, Raab the list goes on and on. Practically every one has proved to be a disaster in office. At least we can be thankful that Farage and Banks weren't eligible for high office.

    On the other side of the coin lots of competent Tory politicians headed for the exits.

    It is no surprise whatsoever that Truss has panicked and gone for one of the few sane senior Tories left to try and save her skin.. It was widely believed that Hunt had no chance in the leadership election because of his Remainer views and yet here we are a few short weeks later and he's promoted to the CoE and favourite to be next leader.

    If Brexit is being discredited (as I believe it is) then it is the Brexiteers themselves that are trashing it. 5 years from now we will be back in the single market at the very least.
    I voted for Brexit and I agree with your analysis. The state of the Tory party now, and the intellectual vacuum within, is a direct consequence of Brexit.

    Basically, if you take this forum as a proxy. You've got Barty and LuckyGuy as the Rees-Mogg fruit loops with Casino being the eccentric but fundamentally sound, Gove.

    Brexit is highly correlated with being a thicky and / or crazy person. I'm more of the latter, I think/hope.
    The people you mention are not stupid, the problem is that the people you mentioned are so invested in Brexit they are completely blinded to the negative consequences. Fortunately I think the scales are slowly but surely dropping from eyes of many leavers.

    Sooner later people are going to look at the likes of Rees-Mogg et al and say, "hang on a minute aren't these the idiots that promised us the sunlit uplands after Brexit? "
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    The reversal of the corporation tax cut is as stupid a move by Truss as could have been, especially when combined with keeping the removal on the cap on bankers' bonuses.

    What's been lost in the stereotyping "it's a big bung for businesses" is that plenty of self-employed people - including myself - set up limited companies to reduce the tax burden. Yes, we may pay lower taxes overall but then we don't have paid holidays, sickness cover, access to work supplemented pension schemes or - especially for those in the state sector - defined benefit pensions.

    Now, for those of who of us who take dividends out, we have effectively had 6p in the pound wiped off our dividend payout potential.

    The big companies will be fine, they will pay their accountants to find ways to reduce the tax rate. Small companies - not so much.

    Holiday/sick/pension should be covered by the rate you charge, not subsidised by full taxpayers
    Absolutely this.
This discussion has been closed.