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My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    I’m on a plane to Rwanda the second Ed Conway starts swearing.
  • Morning all; a bit late this morning, due to having slept off my Covid and flu vaccinations on Saturday. Absolutely shattered yesterday.

    I've got an XE app on my phone, and for some bizarre reason I am watching the exchange rate. Pound has shifted this morning from 1.079 to 1.077 against the dollar, and looks as though it's sliding further.

    1.073 now!
    It was 1.040 early this morning
    At this rate of appreciation sterling will be worth two dollars tomorrow. Rejoice at the Tory economic miracle!
    I cannot see an appreciation in the pound beyond 1.08 (now 1.0717) without BOE intervention
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
    Nobody who keeps paying their mortgage loses their home in house price crashes. Anyone who does can just ride out to the other side and still have a home.

    The people who lose out are those with multiple homes as "investments". Fuck them.
    Jesus, Bart. Yes, and people with one home, which they live in, and a mortgage who stop paying the mortgage because they cannot afford it, lose the home. Normal, non wealthy, perfectly nice people with, often, small children.
    And that's a shame for them. And they'll end up in the same position as millions today who want a home, but can't afford one because prices have been driven up by people using real estate as "investments", which you are totally spiteful about.
    What? Never said anything about them. No personal exposure either directly or via REITs etc to property as investment. Never have had.
  • MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    Again I make the point - Sunak was the choice of MPs. Sunak was the economic voice of reason. Sunak predicted what is now happening as Truss tanks the economy.

    How much trashing of Britain - and being sneered at / ignored by their own government - will Tory MPs take? They know who they wanted, and the case for Sunak is stringer than ever.

    If there is a putsch - and I accept its still a stretch - they will just install Sunak.
  • novanova Posts: 472

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
    Nobody who keeps paying their mortgage loses their home in house price crashes. Anyone who does can just ride out to the other side and still have a home.

    The people who lose out are those with multiple homes as "investments". Fuck them.
    Relationship breakdown. Job Loss. Having to move due to work.

    Plenty of normal reasons why people would struggle in a crash and either need to sell, or rely on having equity.

    How about simply the end of a fixed deal and being stuck with rising rates or a much higher standard rate? Remortgaging would become near impossible for people who didn't have significant equity already built up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Everybody now expects the BoE to act.

    What happens if they don't?
  • TOPPING said:

    Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    You're sounding a bit like the supporters of Jezza post the largest Lab defeat for decades. Well he did get a lot of votes...
    Jezbollah won the argument. What argument with the financial markets did Truss win?
  • Mr. HYUFD, if it's Wallace then he might be the first leader since Numa to not actually want the top job.

    Worth recalling how bad energy prices have been for business. Couple this with hiked rates and it's less than pretty.

    Betting odds: Truss can be backed to go in 2022 with Ladbrokes at 29 or 34 with boost, and may be layable shorter than that on Betfair. Got 24 as a lay bet, and topped up my earlier 46 with some at 34 and a free bet at 29 on Ladbrokes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    I’m on a plane to Rwanda the second Ed Conway starts swearing.
    https://twitter.com/jamiesont/status/1574327224198922240
  • MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    Again I make the point - Sunak was the choice of MPs. Sunak was the economic voice of reason. Sunak predicted what is now happening as Truss tanks the economy.

    How much trashing of Britain - and being sneered at / ignored by their own government - will Tory MPs take? They know who they wanted, and the case for Sunak is stringer than ever.

    If there is a putsch - and I accept its still a stretch - they will just install Sunak.
    It is a nice idea but I cannot see how it comes about unless Kwarteng resigns which would make Truss's position untenable
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
    The bond markets haven't gone ape. They might yet, but bonds are still selling well below inflation.
    Question. What we have basically done is cut income to pay bills by borrowing instead, what’s happening is investors are saying “hmmmm you look like a risky investment now.”

    What should Kwarzi be saying into microphones today to reply - no, investing in us not a risk at all, because…
    Kwarzi said what he had to say last Friday.

    He shouldn't be panicking and responding to market variances, panic will instil more panic.

    He should keep calm and carry on.
    What is a keep calm carry on line from government? investing in us not a greater risk now because…

    Because of what?
  • nova said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
    Nobody who keeps paying their mortgage loses their home in house price crashes. Anyone who does can just ride out to the other side and still have a home.

    The people who lose out are those with multiple homes as "investments". Fuck them.
    Relationship breakdown. Job Loss. Having to move due to work.

    Plenty of normal reasons why people would struggle in a crash and either need to sell, or rely on having equity.

    How about simply the end of a fixed deal and being stuck with rising rates or a much higher standard rate? Remortgaging would become near impossible for people who didn't have significant equity already built up.
    Indeed, and getting on the property ladder is a near impossibility for many people with house prices being too high.

    A correction to house prices at a 3x income multiple would be tough for those who thought they had equity, but would make houses affordable again. Sucks for those who bought at the top of the market, but anyone investing should always be warned that prices can go down as well as up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,998

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    Per capita ? :smile:

    Where do you get $2.7 trillion for the UK ?

    UK GDP this year will be somewhere around £2.27 trillion.
    At current exchange rates, that's around $2.45 trillion.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    kinabalu said:

    Mrs C, who has ever banged on about Empire except those seeking strawmen to attack?

    There's plenty of genuine nonsense to condemn without inventing more.

    It's not banged on about - because people don't like to admit it - but the hankering for bygone days of power and glory is stubbornly present in many. And it was, without a shadow of a shadow of a doubt, a strong factor in Brexit.
    A stronger factor was detaching ourselves from those in Brussels seeking days of power and glory as the United States of Europe.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Services. 😇
    Do you have your hair cut by someone in New York? Does your hairdresser cut hair in London and also in Tokyo?
    I wish!
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?
  • MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    Maybe in Kwarteng's mind he would keep this for his budget statement as it has been said he is to address these issues

    If so he badly misjudged the politics and common sense
  • OllyT said:

    FPT Nick Palmer: "Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?"

    I still have a lot of time for my MP, who has the right instincts - and needs to be in the mix to remedy the mistakes of the Liz Truss premiership. I would likely vote for him personally. But if those of the top of the Party were still acting in a way that I thought was not in the best interests of the country, I would be torn between voting for him and sitting on my hands.

    I know that you were pro-Brexit but do you see any connection to the current state of the party and its take over by the Brexiteers? Isn't this exactly the sort of government that the right-wing Tory Brexiteers were angling for all along? Singapore-on-Thames
    Indeed, as mentioned FPT -

    Crispin Odey :

    -Chief financial creator of Vote Leave

    -Former employer of Kwasi Kwarteng

    -One of several leading hedge-fund Tory donors, arguably the biggest single Tory funding source for almost two decades.

    -Backed Liz Truss, with other hedge-funders, and like the rest of the group quoted in the Times's report yesterday , has made a large amount - £145 million, actually - from shorting the pound in the last three days.
    Otoh, the Conservative Party treasurer will surely have a bulging war chest ready for the next election. Peerages all round.
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022
    Morning all. Election Maps UK is hinting tonights Redfield will be dreadful for Truss as hes saying its 'very spicy' alongside the tagline 'what is the opposite of a bounce?'
    It will be the first post budget poll
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Looking back it told us both their plan and the way in which they were going to implement it..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,287
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    Maybe in Kwarteng's mind he would keep this for his budget statement as it has been said he is to address these issues

    If so he badly misjudged the politics and common sense
    I get a sense that he won't be around to do it. The Government is about to see what happens when financial markets turn on a country. In Greece, Italy and Ireland it led to regime and policy changes within days.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    An essential part of the "cunning" plan
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,998
    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    Along with publishing the OBR forecast.
  • MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    Again I make the point - Sunak was the choice of MPs. Sunak was the economic voice of reason. Sunak predicted what is now happening as Truss tanks the economy.

    How much trashing of Britain - and being sneered at / ignored by their own government - will Tory MPs take? They know who they wanted, and the case for Sunak is stringer than ever.

    If there is a putsch - and I accept its still a stretch - they will just install Sunak.
    It is a nice idea but I cannot see how it comes about unless Kwarteng resigns which would make Truss's position untenable
    Vote down the Special Economic Operation...
  • I don't think the vast majority of the voting pubic pay much attention to, or understand, the financial shenanigans going on at the moment. They only notice when their bills and mortgages go up, and their wages don't go up enough to match that. I also don't think the Truss/KK regime is in imminent danger.

    However, politically, what's important is that the roles of Conservatives and Labour are being reversed. A key reason that Labour has been unelectable is the whiff surrounding them of financial irresponsibility and incompetence, contrasted with Tory responsibility and competence. I reckon the dial on this is turning around, and will continue to do so. Hence, Labour's prospects at GE 2024 are much improved.

    It's the economy, stupid.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,708
    Scott_xP said:

    Everybody now expects the BoE to act.

    What happens if they don't?

    Kwarsi will be trying to helpfully “support” the BOE make the right decision in his now twice weekly meeting

    No signs anyone is budging yet
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,029
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    Maybe in Kwarteng's mind he would keep this for his budget statement as it has been said he is to address these issues

    If so he badly misjudged the politics and common sense
    I get a sense that he won't be around to do it. The Government is about to see what happens when financial markets turn on a country. In Greece, Italy and Ireland it led to regime and policy changes within days.
    Isn't democracy great?
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,735
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?

    The best the BBC can do is this:

    Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"


    All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.

    So, what is the 'far right' bit?

    That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
    Thanks. But this needs expanding. Your position is repeating the BBC line. 'Obviously they are far right'. What about details. What about plans for implementation of which and what policies?

    This can be read as populist conservatism. It's bad from my point of view; but is it Hitlerian; is it Mussolini?

  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨Tory MP + former minister: "Liz if f*cked... You cannot have monetary policy and fiscal policy at loggerheads. Something has to give."
    "They are already putting letters in as think she will crash the economy."

    https://twitter.com/AgnesChambre/status/1574324351150837760

    LOL. She is speedrunning Johnson's premiership if we are already at the Letters to Brady Stage.

    Looks like she got her tits done for nothing.
    Probably tasteless but funny!
  • MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    Because this isn't about the ordinary people. They couldn't give a Rat Fuck about them.

    This is about doing as extreme a version of cosplay Thatcherite economics as possible as rapidly as they can to stick the maximum amount of cash in their patron's pockets before their hands are forcibly removed from the controls.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Any savings from tax cuts will be eaten up by longer term higher inflation and then increased interest payments on mortgages and general loans and credit cards will add to the pressure on people’s finances so still trying to work out exactly what Truss and Kwarteng are playing at .

    And then to signal further tax cuts seems insane .
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
    What problem?

    The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.

    The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.

    UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.

    Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
    Nice to see that after 40 years the market is aware that Trickle Down Economics doesn't work...

    It's also nice to see that Modern Monetary Theory died a death as well...
  • MaxPB said:

    A bean counter this morning:

    - Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.

    - Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.

    These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.

    There are several answers, but they all rely on some combination of foolish and malign. Neither of which is great.

    Another pair of questions I don't know the answer to:

    The 45p rate abolition is, very understandably, getting a lot of hate. But it's also a relatively small slice of the "borrow to cut taxes" plan. So where is most of the money going? And could the government have got away with it had they just not done this totemic thing for the one percent?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Relieved that I’m not having to explain, as a British Ambassador, how the Government has a democratic mandate to take this huge gamble with the public finances, a policy completely contrary to the Tory manifesto at the 2019 general election on which their Commons majority rests.
    https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1574287300204404737
  • HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    They already are pretty much.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Given London property prices (And the associated monster mortgages), some of those on 150k might not even benefit lol.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
    What problem?

    The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.

    The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.

    UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.

    Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
    The problem is that Gas prices utterly f***ed the European economy and so from February until last week the GBP/Euro exchange rate reflected the sheer scale of the mess the Ukrainian war was making of the EU economy.

    The market now believes the UK economy has a similar scale of economic issues to EU economies.

    And until last Wednesday that wasn't the case....
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
    So when George Osborne cut the additional rate from 50% to 45% was that a huge problem?

    Lower taxes does lead to economic growth. If the markets don't like that, then f**k the markets. Ride out the storm and prove them wrong.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
    So when George Osborne cut the additional rate from 50% to 45% was that a huge problem?

    Lower taxes does lead to economic growth. If the markets don't like that, then f**k the markets. Ride out the storm and prove them wrong.
    Any evidence to back up your statement. The increase from 45% to 50% and again from 50% to 45% merely resulted in money being paid at different times...

    Cutting taxes for high earnings really just shifts when money is being paid round a bit...
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
    What problem?

    The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.

    The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.

    UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.

    Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
    Err, have you seen what is happening in the gilt markets?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,998
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Yes, hopefully it will. Gotta agree with you there.

    It's ludicrous that house prices are so high, and it's all down to (on the demand side) the government allowing banks to lend so much, and (on the supply side) the planning permission system.

    In a decent enough price crash the banks will have to write down so much debt that they'll go insolvent and they'll have to be nationalised.

    That will leave the state as the holder of rights to mortgaged properties.

    Good stuff.

    Exercise the mortages. Take over the freeholds. Give tenants secure inheritable tenancies. You don't even have to do it compulsorily. Offer occupants a lump sum of say 15% of the pre-crash market value. That works out as a long period of free rent. That's better than not being able to afford loan repayments. It's security rather than insecurity.

    The idea that a mortgage is something that a bank "gives" you, something desirable, has been a huge propaganda success for moneylenders over the past ~60 years. It is a major feature of how the majority of people in this country have been stimulated to "think". Many jump into almost as big a pit of debt as it's possible to get. They think that's clever. It's not like that in most other countries.

    A crack started to appear in 2008. Before then, there may have been a dislike of "City boys" (largely irrelevant because they're a part of the population that few people ever meet), which began in the late 1980s, but there was hardly ever any contempt towards high street banks. Sure, you might think Lloyds or Barclays treated you like sh*t, but dislike for those outfits wasn't something you talked about to your neighbours. That changed. Everyone detests the f***ing banks now.

    More change please in the same direction.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just out of our morning meeting - key takeaway is that the markets believe there is a credibility gap at the top of the UK which is the cause of all this movement. Someone pointed out that if the same package had been presented without the additional rate cut it would likely have resulted in a shrug of everyone's shoulders and financial markets move on and just label this a temporary fiscal stimulus going into a recession. It was cutting the additional rate and the subsequent defending of it as being a measure that will create a surge of growth that has destroyed the government's credibility. People in the City are good at this stuff, we make lots of money being one step ahead and there wasn't a single person at the (virtual) table this morning who believed that cutting personal income tax would lead to any significant additional economic growth.

    So what the UK is suffering from is a huge credibility issue with the PM and Chancellor. There's an easy way for the Tories to fix that. While Rishi might be a bit dull, making him PM and Hunt the Chancellor would immediately restore confidence in the markets, ditching the additional rate cut or rejigging it somehow to fix the £100k cliff at the same time would overnight push sterling back up and bring yields down IMO.

    So you're saying that getting rid of the 45% rate is all important ???

    That will have little effect either way as it similarly did when it was reduced to 45% from 50%.

    If the markets are so bothered about the presence or absence of a 45% band compared to the stamp duty changes then its the markets which have a credibility gap.
    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
    So when George Osborne cut the additional rate from 50% to 45% was that a huge problem?

    Lower taxes does lead to economic growth. If the markets don't like that, then f**k the markets. Ride out the storm and prove them wrong.
    Because at 50% we saw a huge tax gap, it was expected to raise £8bn but it only raised half that figure. Cutting it to 45% was accepted as the best idea. Additionally we didn't need to fund £550-600bn in gilt sales in two years back then and we didn't have an 8% current budget deficit either with no credible plan to cut it. Remember Osborne's tax cut came alongside billions in spending cuts. If the chancellor had presented these measures with £20-30bn in spending cuts there'd be no crisis today.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FTSE has fallen over. 6954. And that's despite usual + correl with $ strength.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.

    "Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.

    The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.

    Could he be right?
  • Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
    What problem?

    The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.

    The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.

    UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.

    Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
    Err, have you seen what is happening in the gilt markets?
    Yes, they're up to still much less than inflation. 10 year bond yield in the UK at the minute is 4.15% which when inflation is running at double digits, is still remarkably low, and is as I said identical to the 10y yield for New Zealand and I don't hear anyone saying how Saint Jacinda is facing a gilt crisis.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    Morning all. Election Maps UK is hinting tonights Redfield will be dreadful for Truss as hes saying its 'very spicy' alongside the tagline 'what is the opposite of a bounce?'
    It will be the first post budget poll

    I’d add a caveat, in fact 2. Labour conference week, they are bound to get a bounce that might not last as previous conference season bounces prove, publicity bounce, celebrity fluff not real polling impact. And we have a 2 week rule on PB for events, like budgets, to be fully showing in polls. So any linkage with polls today with last Friday I would caution against, if the 2 week to impact rule holds this weeks polls may be just judgement on Truss first week.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    Great news. A very popular policy that makes great sense right now, given so many of the franchises run badly by the privateers have been taken back and renationalised anyway. I think five franchises, at the last count, are now in the public sector. There's not a whole lot left to nationalise anyway.

    Grant Shapps' Great British Railways idea was a step forward – the public are sick of pathetic private companies blaming each other for their failures, and want one arse to kick, a single brand.

    The railway is already heavily nationalised – completing the job is a good idea whose time has come.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Fury from a Tory MP who says talk of no confidence letters going in is not misplaced.

    "My colleagues will rule nothing in and rule nothing out," they say.

    "There will come a time where people have to say ‘I know it’ll make us look chaotic, but we can’t go on like this."


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1574339701493858306
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    IshmaelZ said:

    FTSE has fallen over. 6954. And that's despite usual + correl with $ strength.

    Jesus lol
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088


    He was a gentleman, and a Scholar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,998

    Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.

    "Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.

    The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.

    Could he be right?

    He might end up being right about spending cuts being forced on government, depending on how things go from here.
    The rest is bobbins; there would be a lot of pain involved.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594
    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    FTSE has fallen over. 6954. And that's despite usual + correl with $ strength.

    Jesus lol
    UK companies are facing a huge rise in funding costs, corporate bond yields are surging on the expectation that the base rate will hit 5.75% by mid 2023.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    Great news. A very popular policy that makes great sense right now, given so many of the franchises run badly by the privateers have been taken back and renationalised anyway. I think five franchises, at the last count, are now in the public sector. There's not a whole lot left to nationalise anyway.

    Grant Shapps' Great British Railways idea was a step forward – the public are sick of pathetic private companies blaming each other for their failures, and want one arse to kick, a single brand.

    The railway is already heavily nationalised – completing the job is a good idea whose time has come.
    Doesn’t it need private investment? You closing that door completely?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278

    Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.

    "Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.

    The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.

    Could he be right?

    According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States!
    I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,150
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,778

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Had half a thought about cancelling my fix, ERC of 4.4k though and I'd miss out on 30 more cheap repayment periods.
    Starmer will hopefully have restored some credibility by March 25.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,150
    edited September 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Fury from a Tory MP who says talk of no confidence letters going in is not misplaced.

    "My colleagues will rule nothing in and rule nothing out," they say.

    "There will come a time where people have to say ‘I know it’ll make us look chaotic, but we can’t go on like this."


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1574339701493858306

    So do it. Talk is cheap. Grow a pair and bring this farce to an end.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,150
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
    You're wishcasting. We have a freely floating exchange rate, a 3 cent move in Sterling is not going to be the end of the world.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?

    The best the BBC can do is this:

    Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"


    All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.

    So, what is the 'far right' bit?

    That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
    Perhaps he thinks "populist traditional conservatism" in Italy means a roomful of avuncular Harold Macmillans who only use guns on the grouse moor, rather than anything to do with stiff right arm syndrome.

    Interestingly Giorgia Meloni backs an elected presidency. What's with that, I wonder?

    It will to be interesting to see who gets appointed as finance minister.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    edited September 2022

    Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.

    "Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.

    The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.

    Could he be right?

    People seem to have this strange idea that the NHS has tons of middle managers that can be easily removed.

    I'm sure a lot of the administration costs can be removed if the money existed to automate the systems but sadly the money isn't there to do that...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,778

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Do we know either way?

    If he was dismissed just for raising some concerns, then part of this huge drop in confidence in the government comes from that.

    The markets will be looking for someone to dive in with some mitigation (see @MaxPB above) but that person doesn't exist any more.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,661

    Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.

    "Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.

    The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.

    Could he be right?

    According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States!
    I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
    Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.

    Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
    You're wishcasting. A 3 cent move in Sterling is not going to be the end of the world.
    It's not just the currency, it's gilt prices. We have to sell £550-600bn in gilts, right now we're locking in significantly higher rates and debt servicing costs for the medium term. Inflation will go down, to below 3% within the next 18 months, gilt rates will stay at 4-5% for years after unless they arrest the decline.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    edited September 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Had half a thought about cancelling my fix, ERC of 4.4k though and I'd miss out on 30 more cheap repayment periods.
    Starmer will hopefully have restored some credibility by March 25.

    Depends - it's highly plausible that Starmer arrives in No 10 in mid January 25. That won't give him enough time to stabilise things.

    Truss has a 70+ seat majority unless 60 or so Tory MPs vote for Christmas the next election will be at the end of a 5 year Parliament.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.

    The Federal Reserve is hiking rates by 75 basis points a go, while the Bank of England isn't. As long as the Fed continue to do that, Sterling is taking a dive relatively.

    Versus the Euro, in October last year £1 = €1.11, going into October this year £1 = €1.11, a net Sterling fall of €0.00
    Was it really 1.11 in October last year. On xe.com the lowest it got was 1.15.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
    Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,216
    Rishi did try to warn Conservative voters, but the usual suspects didn’t want to hear it did they?

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-s-petulant-attempt-to-start-a-run-on-the-pound
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Alistair said:

    Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.

    The Federal Reserve is hiking rates by 75 basis points a go, while the Bank of England isn't. As long as the Fed continue to do that, Sterling is taking a dive relatively.

    Versus the Euro, in October last year £1 = €1.11, going into October this year £1 = €1.11, a net Sterling fall of €0.00
    Was it really 1.11 in October last year. On xe.com the lowest it got was 1.15.
    @BartholomewRoberts will happily make figures up to demonstrate his version of reality is the truth...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    It's been delightful to witness the WHY-VOLCANO-ANGRY? confusion of free market think-tank zealots, with the actual free market's reaction to their insane policies.

    It must be very hurtful when The Invisible Hand just flips you The Invisible Middle Finger. ~AA


    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1574343368406175744
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    The BOE stepping in and raising interest rates before the next scheduled meeting would have political implications and if Kwarteng had any sense he’d do something to calm the markets .

    It’s really not a good look for the alleged bastions of sensible economics to have the BOE call an emergency meeting .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Labour NEC member speculated to me *before the Budget* that this could be the Tories’ 2nd ERM moment, 30 years on https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/long-reads/keir-starmer-budget-labour-conference-b2173205.html https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1574344449358012417/photo/1
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,897
    edited September 2022

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    Democracy - we voted for MPs, if they choose to boot Truss out* then that's their democratic right. I've little interest in who a fringe group of fruitcakes, loons and closet racists** choose as their party leader, if they want Truss as party leader that's fine with me.

    *they won't, or at least not for some time - look how long it took for the required number to write to Brady over Johnson; even then the cowards didn't have the guts to vote him out

    **a surprisingly large minority, per the leadership vote, actually are none of these, so apologies to them
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    nico679 said:

    The BOE stepping in and raising interest rates before the next scheduled meeting would have political implications and if Kwarteng had any sense he’d do something to calm the markets .

    It’s really not a good look for the alleged bastions of sensible economics to have the BOE call an emergency meeting .

    As I said earlier on I don't think the BoE has anything within it's remit that would allow it to call an emergency meeting, it would require the Chancellor to ask for it and this Chancellor unlike Lamont is going to willingly do so.
  • Alistair said:

    Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.

    The Federal Reserve is hiking rates by 75 basis points a go, while the Bank of England isn't. As long as the Fed continue to do that, Sterling is taking a dive relatively.

    Versus the Euro, in October last year £1 = €1.11, going into October this year £1 = €1.11, a net Sterling fall of €0.00
    Was it really 1.11 in October last year. On xe.com the lowest it got was 1.15.
    You're right, my apologies, I was looking at 2020 figures not 2021 ones.

    So its the same as two years ago, not one year ago. Apologies for the mistake. 🙊
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594
    Alistair said:

    Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.

    The Federal Reserve is hiking rates by 75 basis points a go, while the Bank of England isn't. As long as the Fed continue to do that, Sterling is taking a dive relatively.

    Versus the Euro, in October last year £1 = €1.11, going into October this year £1 = €1.11, a net Sterling fall of €0.00
    Was it really 1.11 in October last year. On xe.com the lowest it got was 1.15.
    Yes, the lowest intraday in October 2021 was €1.1596.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,778

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.

    Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
    Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
    Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
    "Respect democracy" - nonsense.

    We have a weird democratic system in the UK. An important part of that is the manifesto, hence the convention that the Lords don't block policies that people argue for during a GE.

    None of this was on any manifesto on which individual MPs were elected. I'd argue that the divergence is so severe as to be bigger than the policy difference between the Johnson Tories and Starmer's Labour. That includes the environmental changes, not just the economics.

    Truss should call a GE if she wants to take us down this path.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,520
    Scott_xP said:

    Everybody now expects the BoE to act.

    What happens if they don't?

    Sterling collapses. Gilts collapse. The FTSE collapses. Meltdown.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Had half a thought about cancelling my fix, ERC of 4.4k though and I'd miss out on 30 more cheap repayment periods.
    Starmer will hopefully have restored some credibility by March 25.

    Depends - it's highly plausible that Starmer arrives in No 10 in mid January 25. That won't give him enough time to stabilise things.

    Truss has a 70+ seat majority unless 60 or so Tory MPs vote for Christmas the next election will be at the end of a 5 year Parliament.
    I'll just have to tighten my arsehole till the system can be restored to sanity then.
    It's a better position than others will be in tbh, and the increased payments are probably still less than renters will be at...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,897
    Just thinking - getting to the point, perhaps already there (haven't checked rates available) where it actually will make more sense to put money into savings rather than overpay a mortgage (or move money out of a mortage offset account into conventional savings) as the interest rates on savings will be higher than pre-existing mortgage fixes.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Everybody now expects the BoE to act.

    What happens if they don't?

    Sterling collapses. Gilts collapse. The FTSE collapses. Meltdown.
    And if they do raise rates, as they inevitably will, it will bring a whole host of other problems.

    The ultra-Brexiter and disaster-capitalist extremists, from Rees-Moog to Odey, have screwed our society and country.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    nico679 said:

    The BOE stepping in and raising interest rates before the next scheduled meeting would have political implications and if Kwarteng had any sense he’d do something to calm the markets .

    It’s really not a good look for the alleged bastions of sensible economics to have the BOE call an emergency meeting .

    He may try and push the narrative the BoE should have done its job and raised more, quicker and sack Bailey.
    Im not suggesting thats a good idea but he might try the 'blame the bank' route
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    Back up to 1.074.

    Panic over?
  • Selebian said:

    Just thinking - getting to the point, perhaps already there (haven't checked rates available) where it actually will make more sense to put money into savings rather than overpay a mortgage (or move money out of a mortage offset account into conventional savings) as the interest rates on savings will be higher than pre-existing mortgage fixes.

    Only if the fixed rate mortgage is going to run for long enough that the interest rates will have dome down again by the time the fix ends.
This discussion has been closed.