No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
Harsh. Sunak came second in the membership vote - if they can't have Truss, surely the job should go to the person with the second most votes?
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
The BOE stepping in and raising interest rates before the next scheduled meeting would have political implications and if Kwarteng had any sense he’d do something to calm the markets .
It’s really not a good look for the alleged bastions of sensible economics to have the BOE call an emergency meeting .
He may try and push the narrative the BoE should have done its job and raised more, quicker and sack Bailey. Im not suggesting thats a good idea but he might try the 'blame the bank' route
Not sure that works as it was last Friday’s tax changes that have caused the loss of confidence in the government . And sacking Bailey would cause even further turmoil .
NEW: Tory MPs say the Bank of England may need to step in with an emergency rate rise to calm market nerves about the economic plans of Liz Truss's government https://trib.al/qyFk0ED
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
Democracy - we voted for MPs, if they choose to boot Truss out* then that's their democratic right. I've little interest in who a fringe group of fruitcakes, loons and closet racists** choose as their party leader, if they want Truss as party leader that's fine with me.
*they won't, or at least not for some time - look how long it took for the required number to write to Brady over Johnson; even then the cowards didn't have the guts to vote him out
**a surprisingly large minority, per the leadership vote, actually are none of these, so apologies to them
Yep. Spot on. Truss only remains PM as long as a majority of the MPs want her there. It really is entirely in their hands to decide just how far along this path they are willing to let her go.
The obvious point at which to make that decision is the next opportunity to vote on a finance bill. Not sure when that is going to be but I hold a faint hope they will vote on the substantive issue rather than just along party lines.
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
Harsh. Sunak came second in the membership vote - if they can't have Truss, surely the job should go to the person with the second most votes?
Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?
Why?
They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.
The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
What problem?
The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.
The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.
UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.
Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
He might end up being right about spending cuts being forced on government, depending on how things go from here. The rest is bobbins; there would be a lot of pain involved.
So, as other posters have remarked, its completely worthless his idea. It's unlikely to happen and if it does, frontline services (already under pressure) will be stretched further......
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
I was hypothesising - I don't think Truss is going anywhere. Al least not before she loses the next GE badly.
Just thinking - getting to the point, perhaps already there (haven't checked rates available) where it actually will make more sense to put money into savings rather than overpay a mortgage (or move money out of a mortage offset account into conventional savings) as the interest rates on savings will be higher than pre-existing mortgage fixes.
Yes, that point is already here. I've just convinced my missus to stop overpaying her mortgage and save the money at a higher interest rate instead. You can get 4% on a 2-year bond last time I looked (her fix has longer than 2 years to go and is lower than 4%).
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
I was hypothesising - I don't think Truss is going anywhere. Al least not before she loses the next GE badly.
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
There are some people in the world who simply hate public services and would see none at all if it meant their tax bills would come down and they could spend their evenings in their vault polishing their gold.
Of course, when "Pay your own bills" for the closed services go through the roof then they squeal like pigs. US healthcare is a good example.
The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond. I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.
6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.
Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.
NEW: Tory MPs say the Bank of England may need to step in with an emergency rate rise to calm market nerves about the economic plans of Liz Truss's government https://trib.al/qyFk0ED
Just thinking - getting to the point, perhaps already there (haven't checked rates available) where it actually will make more sense to put money into savings rather than overpay a mortgage (or move money out of a mortage offset account into conventional savings) as the interest rates on savings will be higher than pre-existing mortgage fixes.
Only if the fixed rate mortgage is going to run for long enough that the interest rates will have dome down again by the time the fix ends.
Why? Assuming you can liquidate the savings account and pay the balance into the mortgage at end of fixed term (this is case for us, negotiating new mortgage deal at that point) then you're still ahead, however expensive the new mortgage might be, are you not?
Or am I being unbelieveably dense? I can see that if you couldn't then get the savings money into the mortgage balance then you could end up worse off (e.g. early repayment limits/charges, but they tend to only apply during the fixed term in my experience).
Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?
Why?
They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.
The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
What problem?
The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.
The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.
UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.
Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
That logic is a bit circular though, the base rate in the US is 3.25%, and that its only 2.25% here is a big part of why Sterling has fallen though.
If the Bank had risen rates as fast as the Fed have, then Sterling would be higher and the spread would be lower. Even last week they raised rates by less than the Fed.
The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond. I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.
6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.
Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.
My sympathy is limited...these people stretched themselves to the limit to buy that nice house and contributed to the insane property inflation we have had....
Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?
Why?
They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.
The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
What problem?
The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.
The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.
UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.
Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
That logic is a bit circular though, the base rate in the US is 3.25%, and that its only 2.25% here is a big part of why Sterling has fallen though.
If the Bank had risen rates as fast as the Fed have, then Sterling would be higher and the spread would be lower. Even last week they raised rates by less than the Fed.
And a lot of people said here that while it was expected it was going to create a problem going forward.
Then the Mini Budget arrived and what was a medium term issue (of too low interest rates) on Thursday became an immediate issue as the other party in Britain's economic management also lost credibility.
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
45p wot dunnit. If the plan was to trap Labour with the 19p basic rate cut why give them an out? Any long term growth and increased vote on the back of it will be 'pre-undone' by the short term hit . The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off. Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?
Why?
They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.
The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
The markets are reacting and adapting. That is precisely the problem.
What problem?
The pound versus the Euro is exactly where it was for much of last year.
The dollar is appreciating due to the flight to the dollar and the fact the Fed is raising rates far faster than the Bank is.
UK ten year bond yields are identical to Kiwi ones at the moment. I don't recall everyone ranting and raving that Jacinda Ahern's government was suffering a crisis due to that.
Rather than ramping up every small swing in the markets, where is the "problem"?
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
That logic is a bit circular though, the base rate in the US is 3.25%, and that its only 2.25% here is a big part of why Sterling has fallen though.
If the Bank had risen rates as fast as the Fed have, then Sterling would be higher and the spread would be lower. Even last week they raised rates by less than the Fed.
The point is that markets are currently asking for a huge risk premium on UK government and corporate debt that they aren't for NZ, who you made the comparison with. That risk premium didn't exist before Friday, it has appeared because of the government's actions.
The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond. I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.
6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.
Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.
My sympathy is limited...these people stretched themselves to the limit to buy that nice house and contributed to the insane property inflation we have had....
I wasn't talking about or asking for people to have sympathy (I do on 1 level but also regard houses prices as insanely high and economically incredibly damaging) just highlighting the issue.
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
I was hypothesising - I don't think Truss is going anywhere. Al least not before she loses the next GE badly.
So we need to put up or shut up?
Put up - basically yes - only the CP can change leader as we know. Shut up ..... that's a different matter!
At least Johnson has gone. That's what you wanted I think??
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
Not quite all, some of us get most of our income from US $ denominated business!
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
45p wot dunnit. If the plan was to trap Labour with the 19p basic rate cut why give them an out? Any long term growth and increased vote on the back of it will be 'pre-undone' by the short term hit . The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off. Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
They need to UTurn that 45p decision pretty damn quick.
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
Not quite all, some of us get most of our income from US $ denominated business!
Well yes, my salary is benchmarked in dollars and I just got a pretty big tax cut!
Currency is one of the main issues for indy2, so the SNP are loving this. £ swiftly making its way into the con column for the Union.
Yes, a Scottish colleague at our morning meeting touched on this as well, a stable currency is the bedrock of the Union, not having that factor will result in independence and further market turmoil.
Currency is one of the main issues for indy2, so the SNP are loving this. £ swiftly making its way into the con column for the Union.
Yes, a Scottish colleague at our morning meeting touched on this as well, a stable currency is the bedrock of the Union, not having that factor will result in independence and further market turmoil.
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
45p wot dunnit. If the plan was to trap Labour with the 19p basic rate cut why give them an out? Any long term growth and increased vote on the back of it will be 'pre-undone' by the short term hit . The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off. Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
That's the other bit of dumbness.
The Conservatives could have tried to play it cool, worked to make sure that the collapse and pain happened after a General Election, blamed Starmer and ridden back in glory in 2029.
By borrowing so much with such a thin plan, interest rates now look like rising to such a degree that growth won't happen and the pain is going to hit before the Conservatives can hide away in opposition.
Currency is one of the main issues for indy2, so the SNP are loving this. £ swiftly making its way into the con column for the Union.
Yes, a Scottish colleague at our morning meeting touched on this as well, a stable currency is the bedrock of the Union, not having that factor will result in independence and further market turmoil.
Do the Tories have any selling points left for anyone other than the ultras?
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
45p wot dunnit. If the plan was to trap Labour with the 19p basic rate cut why give them an out? Any long term growth and increased vote on the back of it will be 'pre-undone' by the short term hit . The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off. Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
They need to UTurn that 45p decision pretty damn quick.
If they're going to concede the election, they might as well spend the next two years doing what they want to do and setting some traps for Labour, just like Brown did in 2008-10 (for example, introducing the highest tax rate).
The base rate in NZ is 3%, the spread is 1.16%, the base rate here is 2.25% and the spread is 1.89%, we've joined the likes of Italy and Greece and the government is driving the economy off a cliff and into a sovereign debt crisis. I'm honestly shocked that you can't or are completely unwilling to see it. The government has got it wrong and needs to u-turn or we'll all end up poorer.
Not quite all, some of us get most of our income from US $ denominated business!
Well yes, my salary is benchmarked in dollars and I just got a pretty big tax cut!
Your yacht's flat on its side, your rudder's floating away, your radio's dead and there's a howling on-shore gale with a tide race behind it. But you've still got the mainsheet in your hand. Do you pull it in or let it out?
Bailey's dilemma.
I read that as your radio's playing radiohead somehow. It sounded grim.
Currency is one of the main issues for indy2, so the SNP are loving this. £ swiftly making its way into the con column for the Union.
Yes, a Scottish colleague at our morning meeting touched on this as well, a stable currency is the bedrock of the Union, not having that factor will result in independence and further market turmoil.
Do the Tories have any selling points left for anyone other than the ultras?
Union, currency, environment all trashed
Brexit, well ... still a running sore, unresolved in a part of the UK very close to Scotland.
Defence not looking great.
World soft power ... now reduced to claiming it's all down to royal funerals.
Environment not so much trashed, but only because it's significantly devolved, and of SG policies - notably and topically also on fracking. Edit: but Johnsonian and expecially Trussonomic lack of interest in COP and/or in renewables is a huge concern.
Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?
The best the BBC can do is this:
Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"
All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.
So, what is the 'far right' bit?
That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
Perhaps he thinks "populist traditional conservatism" in Italy means a roomful of avuncular Harold Macmillans who only use guns on the grouse moor, rather than anything to do with stiff right arm syndrome.
Interestingly Giorgia Meloni backs an elected presidency. What's with that, I wonder?
It will to be interesting to see who gets appointed as finance minister.
All very interesting, but there is still the question of what these winners in Italy will actually implement in terms of actions, laws, policies.
I think we are still short on evidence of the sort of 'far right' we associate with Mussolini, Germany in the 1930s, the era of dictators and so on.
So I shall wait and see. Test cases:
Will refugees be returned to their place of origin without an independent legal process
Will there be anti Jewish and/or anti Islamic legislation
Will same sex relationships be outlawed
Will Italy breach EU legislation
Will Italy leave the Euro or default on its government debt
Will it disengage form the international banking system
Will it use state violence in an arbitrary way
Will particular ethnicities be compelled to leave
Will it ban abortion for some or compel it for others.
Will it return to a theocratic state.
Those are 'far right' measures. For the moment I remain unconvinced. Which doesn't mean I support this shower of clowns.
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
If things go fully tittius verticus, the Tories might need to become keen PR proponents!
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
I think you are right - this feels like the end to the 14 year conservative rule and if so I wish labour well
45p wot dunnit. If the plan was to trap Labour with the 19p basic rate cut why give them an out? Any long term growth and increased vote on the back of it will be 'pre-undone' by the short term hit . The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off. Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
That's the other bit of dumbness.
The Conservatives could have tried to play it cool, worked to make sure that the collapse and pain happened after a General Election, blamed Starmer and ridden back in glory in 2029.
By borrowing so much with such a thin plan, interest rates now look like rising to such a degree that growth won't happen and the pain is going to hit before the Conservatives can hide away in opposition.
They might be so far in opposition 2040 will seem a long long away, and indeed will be. This really is an inflection point. It could go south very very fast. They need a fiscally wily rabbit from the hat
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
There is enough evidence from the Weekend papers that Truss is party to all this and therefore equally part of the problem...
Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?
The best the BBC can do is this:
Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"
All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.
So, what is the 'far right' bit?
That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
Perhaps he thinks "populist traditional conservatism" in Italy means a roomful of avuncular Harold Macmillans who only use guns on the grouse moor, rather than anything to do with stiff right arm syndrome.
Interestingly Giorgia Meloni backs an elected presidency. What's with that, I wonder?
It will to be interesting to see who gets appointed as finance minister.
To crib, because it is behind an semi functioning paywall:
- uses far right as defined by Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde, where Fascism and alt-right is 'extreme right', and merely (a) right of established centre-right, (b) anti-system and (c) lukewarm on democratic institutions defines 'far right' - commonalities and affiliation with AfD, Vox, Lega, Orban and strategising from Bannon - the Italian term 'centre-right' for the coalition has to be seen in terms of open fascist parties like CasaPound - separately notes the post-fascist heritage (passed through Alleanza Nationale, and by which token the main Italian left could be described as post-Communist) -Meloni's admiring quotes for Mussolini when young (Fini had the same), plus slogans and the flame symbol from the Fascist era. - UKIP like actions and suspensions of candidates going quite high up the structure for salutes, bad quotes etc - nativist social policy, blockades, opposition to second generation citizenship (ius scholastics), natalism - suspicion of an end goal of ethnicity based citizenship - explicit promotion of great replacement theory - speaks of replacing parliamentary democracy with a democracy of the people (unclear what that means - note M5S have a love of Swiss referendum democracy, so I'd not automatically conclude this sinister)
Your yacht's flat on its side, your rudder's floating away, your radio's dead and there's a howling on-shore gale with a tide race behind it. But you've still got the mainsheet in your hand. Do you pull it in or let it out?
Bailey's dilemma.
I read that as your radio's playing radiohead somehow. It sounded grim.
It might be considered a mercy then that the radio is broken.
Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?
The best the BBC can do is this:
Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"
All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.
So, what is the 'far right' bit?
That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
Thanks. But this needs expanding. Your position is repeating the BBC line. 'Obviously they are far right'. What about details. What about plans for implementation of which and what policies?
This can be read as populist conservatism. It's bad from my point of view; but is it Hitlerian; is it Mussolini?
The far right doesn't mean Hitler. You quoted a bunch of rhetoric that was anti gay, anti immigrant, anti Islam, anti incomers, anti "International finance", anti "foreign bureaucrats", etc etc etc nudge nudge nudge, just basically hitting all those racist reactionary buttons.
What more do you expect a far right politician seeking election in a Western European country in 2022 to say to demonstrate their far rightness?
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
There is enough evidence from the Weekend papers that Truss is party to all this and therefore equally part of the problem...
Short of booking two thirds of the Cabinet (including herself) into one of those cult deprogramming centres where patients are gently reintroduced to reality, what can Truss do?
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
There is enough evidence from the Weekend papers that Truss is party to all this and therefore equally part of the problem...
Yep.
For years she's been known in the civil service as the human hand grenade.
My biggest worry is it looks like they want to get heavily involved in investment decisions in businesses. Governments are crap at making business decisions and what is more they tend to completely skew the market towards the wrong organisations. Invariably the big organisations employing the admin staff who know how to fill in the multitude of forms to get the business win at the cost of the more efficient (at doing the job) up and coming businesses and then these organisations get a stranglehold on future opportunities. Look at the handful of big suppliers that currently exist screwing up contracts at the taxpayers expense.
What a choice of political parties we currently have.
If anything the Queen's death helped Liz Truss by (allegedly) uniting the country and deflecting away from her ineptitude.
Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.
As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.
The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.
The world is in trouble. The Fed are torching everything. Once our turn is over its back to mudering the Euro. OECD growth estimates out today for 2023 show Germany dying in agony. Paris on the eve of war but I forgot my wallet Goodnight Vienna etc Something has to give. Then everything will. Woolie predicts the econopocalypse coming this winter/spring
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
I was hypothesising - I don't think Truss is going anywhere. Al least not before she loses the next GE badly.
So we need to put up or shut up?
Put up - basically yes - only the CP can change leader as we know. Shut up ..... that's a different matter!
At least Johnson has gone. That's what you wanted I think??
The assumption was that the Tories might have learned something from having put a clueless clown in office the first time?
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
There is enough evidence from the Weekend papers that Truss is party to all this and therefore equally part of the problem...
Yep.
For years she's been known in the civil service as the human hand grenade.
She too is completely out of her depth.
What a fuck up.
Her being a human hand grenade is part of why some of us wanted her to win.
Challenging Civil Service orthodoxy is precisely what she was voted in for.
She's got two years to do her best, or worst, depending upon your Point of View then the voters get to decide whether to continue with that or change course.
If all the Tories are going to do is implement Brownite Civil Service orthodoxy, as Sunak wanted, then we may as well have Labour doing that.
If anything the Queen's death helped Liz Truss by (allegedly) uniting the country and deflecting away from her ineptitude.
Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.
As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.
The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.
Bit harsh, that. It implies there were some budgets in the early 70s that were stupider.
The Barber Boom ones?
(Scrub that, they had a political plan behind them, just one that exploded in everyone's faces. Kwasinomics doesn't even have that to a meaningful degree.)
Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?
The best the BBC can do is this:
Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"
All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.
So, what is the 'far right' bit?
That reeks of far right. Surprised you can't smell it. Have you got Covid?
Thanks. But this needs expanding. Your position is repeating the BBC line. 'Obviously they are far right'. What about details. What about plans for implementation of which and what policies?
This can be read as populist conservatism. It's bad from my point of view; but is it Hitlerian; is it Mussolini?
The far right doesn't mean Hitler. You quoted a bunch of rhetoric that was anti gay, anti immigrant, anti Islam, anti incomers, anti "International finance", anti "foreign bureaucrats", etc etc etc nudge nudge nudge, just basically hitting all those racist reactionary buttons.
What more do you expect a far right politician seeking election in a Western European country in 2022 to say to demonstrate their far rightness?
Thanks.
All very interesting, but there is still the question of what these winners in Italy will actually implement in terms of actions, laws, policies.
I think we are still short on evidence of the sort of 'far right' we associate with Mussolini, Germany in the 1930s, the era of dictators and so on.
So I shall wait and see. Test cases:
Will refugees be returned to their place of origin without an independent legal process
Will there be anti Jewish and/or anti Islamic legislation
Will same sex relationships be outlawed
Will Italy breach EU legislation
Will Italy leave the Euro or default on its government debt
Will it disengage form the international banking system
Will it use state violence in an arbitrary way
Will particular ethnicities be compelled to leave
Will it ban abortion for some or compel it for others.
Will it return to a theocratic state.
Those are 'far right' measures. For the moment I remain unconvinced. Which doesn't mean I support this shower of clowns.
So that's promised rises to income tax and corporation tax. So far.
It's return of the 45% rate - the cut to 19% I think remains and a Corporation Tax policy designed to create an incentive to invest...
Can't fault any of those. Would be nice to see that 45% transform into 43% at £100,000 with no clawback of allowances though...
The cut to 19% is really just recycling the ‘benefit’ from the frozen allowances, the net effect being a detriment to lower earners and a benefit to those earning a lot more.
NEW: Tory MPs say the Bank of England may need to step in with an emergency rate rise to calm market nerves about the economic plans of Liz Truss's government https://trib.al/qyFk0ED
a new black monday/tuesday/wednesday etc etc
First there is a shortage of gas, now we are running out of days of the week on which to fit a disaster.
[snip] Would be nice to see that 45% transform into 43% at £100,000 with no clawback of allowances though...
Can we make @eek Chancellor please, he seems to have a much better plan than either the government or the opposition.
That policy actually came from @MaxPB - I think the only thing me and Max differ on regarding this stuff is Wealth Tax and that's because I can't remember his viewpoint relative to mine (it's necessary, needs to replace stamp duty + council tax and needs to be attached to properties to be paid on sale if the owner can't afford to pay it immediately).
Somewhat off topic (and yet...). I've been watching a rather remarkable French TV show called 'The Collapse'. Eight short (15m or so) stand-alone episodes showing how different people/groups deal with the imminent collapse of society. Each episode is filmed in one take. It's worth tracking down if you can find it. (I watched it via SBS https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/tv-series/the-collapse )
So that's promised rises to income tax and corporation tax. So far.
It's return of the 45% rate - the cut to 19% I think remains and a Corporation Tax policy designed to create an incentive to invest...
Can't fault any of those. Would be nice to see that 45% transform into 43% at £100,000 with no clawback of allowances though...
The cut to 19% is really just recycling the ‘benefit’ from the frozen allowances, the net effect being a detriment to lower earners and a benefit to those earning a lot more.
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
I suspect it is true. I've heard numerous times about doctors and senior nurses spending a considerable chunk of their time doing administration and management tasks that could be picked up by dedicated admin staff.
Step 1: Sack a bunch of admin staff on £20k Step 2: Get their work done by doctors on £70k using up 25-40% of their time Step 3: Wonder why the outcomes are getting worse against money spent. Step 4: Look at options to decrease non-medical-staff spend Step 5: Return to Step 1
- Undoing the childcare cliff edge would cost ca. £800m but the additional tax raised would come in at £1.4bn due to people working full time again or canning pension AVCs.
- Undoing the allowance withdrawal would cost £1.6bn but raise somewhere between £3.3bn and £4.1bn depending on overall behavioural change and it would stop an annual tax gap (through avoidance) of £0.5bn.
These two measures are slam dunks. I still can't fathom why we got an additional rate cut but not this which affects far, far more people.
Because Kwasi Kwarteng is an idiot and just randomly picked ideas his mates had suggested instead of doing any proper analysis.....
Somebody suggested that Kwasi's performance so far is worthy of a tinpot dictatorship in some Latin American banana republic. He is certainly out of his depth here. Ought not Truss to do something to resolve this problem?
There is enough evidence from the Weekend papers that Truss is party to all this and therefore equally part of the problem...
Short of booking two thirds of the Cabinet (including herself) into one of those cult deprogramming centres where patients are gently reintroduced to reality, what can Truss do?
Nothing - which is the problem...
Given the choice between
a) helping her solve the mess she created or
b) watching the fireworks from a prime viewing point before very likely being drafted in to replace her
which one would you choose.
Few MPs are going to be rushing to join Truss's train wreck..
If anything the Queen's death helped Liz Truss by (allegedly) uniting the country and deflecting away from her ineptitude.
Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.
As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.
The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.
The world is in trouble. The Fed are torching everything. Once our turn is over its back to mudering the Euro. OECD growth estimates out today for 2023 show Germany dying in agony. Paris on the eve of war but I forgot my wallet Goodnight Vienna etc Something has to give. Then everything will. Woolie predicts the econopocalypse coming this winter/spring
Also how will all this pain impact the support for the ukraine war as it grinds on through the winter
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
I suspect it is true. I've heard numerous times about doctors and senior nurses spending a considerable chunk of their time doing administration and management tasks that could be picked up by dedicated admin staff.
Step 1: Sack a bunch of admin staff on £20k Step 2: Get their work done by doctors on £70k using up 25-40% of their time Step 3: Wonder why the outcomes are getting worse against money spent. Step 4: Look at options to decrease non-medical-staff spend Step 5: Return to Step 1
My experience of the US healthcare system is that the NHS is incredibly efficient by comparison. Quite normal to get billed separately by 5 or 6 different people for the same procedure, each providing a detailed breakdown of the costs and required copay. Each had to be paid for by cheque. Sometimes the required copay was about the same as the cost of the postage involved.
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
There are some people in the world who simply hate public services and would see none at all if it meant their tax bills would come down and they could spend their evenings in their vault polishing their gold.
Of course, when "Pay your own bills" for the closed services go through the roof then they squeal like pigs. US healthcare is a good example.
And then complain loudly that they have to pay anything at all because they've "paid my taxes all these years"
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
I suspect it is true. I've heard numerous times about doctors and senior nurses spending a considerable chunk of their time doing administration and management tasks that could be picked up by dedicated admin staff.
Step 1: Sack a bunch of admin staff on £20k Step 2: Get their work done by doctors on £70k using up 25-40% of their time Step 3: Wonder why the outcomes are getting worse against money spent. Step 4: Look at options to decrease non-medical-staff spend Step 5: Return to Step 1
You could say the same of education, although rather a lot of the time, nobody important (e.g. parents, children, teachers) would notice if you just got rid of the paperwork rather than the admin staff.
No, it's the presentation of it as a tax cut which will result in significantly more economic growth. That's the issue. If they had just done it and said "yeah fuck off poor people, we want to help our rich mates" it would have probably been fine as well. It's that they have gone on TV and defended it as a measure which will push up trend growth rates which has got everyone in the City scratching their heads and questioning whether the top team really understands how the economy functions. That's where the credibility gap is coming from.
Yes, and I think the other thing which makes it clear that the government has completely lost its marbles is the lack of any attention to the spending side. In that sense, Kwarteng was right when he claimed this wasn't a budget: in a budget, you look at spending, tax revenues and borrowing, as a whole. It's abundantly clear that there are going to be big spending increases, even if just to match inflation - everywhere you look, you can see enormous pressures. The fact that Kwarteng doesn't seem to think that any of these pressures are worth mentioning is hardly conducive to confidence.
Yes, where are the spending cuts? Osborne proposed a huge round of spending restraint and real terms cuts for 4 years which won market credibility for a nation that was on the brink of this situation. Rishi is going to have to come in and do the same.
Respect democracy, Rishi lost the election fair and square, the Tories have made their choice. Liz and Kwasi need to do what they believe in and if it works, great. If it doesn't, then it will be up to Labour to sort out, not Rishi.
No, it won't get that far after the weekend of turmoil. If Liz and Kwasi can't turn it around within the next few days and push sterling back up and gilt rates down the Tory MPs will move to dump them and I think Rishi becomes leader without a member vote.
Sunak has just lost a membership vote. If there is to be a coronation it won't be Sunak. Choosing a leader without a membership vote is one thing; choosing one that has been put to the vote only to lose it is another.
At this rate the conservatives will soon be changing leaders every day...maybe they can give all their mps a go
I was hypothesising - I don't think Truss is going anywhere. Al least not before she loses the next GE badly.
So we need to put up or shut up?
Put up - basically yes - only the CP can change leader as we know. Shut up ..... that's a different matter!
At least Johnson has gone. That's what you wanted I think??
The assumption was that the Tories might have learned something from having put a clueless clown in office the first time?
They have though.
There's a valid theory that every new PM tends to be an overreaction to the flaws of the last PM. That works here too.
The last PM was someone who didn't believe in anything, except how to further his own career, someone who believed in nothing and put himself first. The new PM now is the polar opposite, an ideologue who is doing what others dislike as she genuinely thinks its the right thing to do and is putting her ideology first.
Whether you like it or not, its a significant change.
If anything the Queen's death helped Liz Truss by (allegedly) uniting the country and deflecting away from her ineptitude.
Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.
As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.
The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.
The world is in trouble. The Fed are torching everything. Once our turn is over its back to mudering the Euro. OECD growth estimates out today for 2023 show Germany dying in agony. Paris on the eve of war but I forgot my wallet Goodnight Vienna etc Something has to give. Then everything will. Woolie predicts the econopocalypse coming this winter/spring
Also how will all this pain impact the support for the ukraine war as it grinds on through the winter
I think the next development is that Russia will officially declare war on Ukraine at the start of next week. The referenda occurring & Ukranian control of Zaporizhia pretty much guarantee it.
Funny, but I don't agree with it, but a work colleague this morning, when I asked, thought the mini-budget was pretty good and would lead to the government having to undertake significant spending cuts.
"Mainly the bloated NHS I hope" he said, before remarking that he considered the NHS to be hugely overburdened with management staff who could easily be cut for huge savings in spending.
The chap is a senior manager and been in accountancy for fourty years..... I wasn't totally taken by his argument.
Could he be right?
According to the published figures, the NHS spends a smaller proportion on management than many other health services. Especially the United States! I think it was Dr Foxy who pointed out last week that many of the people titled manager also had health professional jobs.
Some of the people I read (Andy Cowper etc.) are pretty confident the NHS is underspending on managers... that more are needed to drive efficiency gains, redesign services etc.
Whether that's true or not - I am pretty confident that the pressures on the service far outweigh any easy low-hanging fruit on spending cuts.
I suspect it is true. I've heard numerous times about doctors and senior nurses spending a considerable chunk of their time doing administration and management tasks that could be picked up by dedicated admin staff.
Step 1: Sack a bunch of admin staff on £20k Step 2: Get their work done by doctors on £70k using up 25-40% of their time Step 3: Wonder why the outcomes are getting worse against money spent. Step 4: Look at options to decrease non-medical-staff spend Step 5: Return to Step 1
Not the only place to try that kind of thing. Our uni introduced, at some point, a rule where admin roles could only be advertised when actually vacant. So we knew our research group administrator was leaving, but we couldn't advertise until she had actually left, resulting in a gap of around three months during which we did most of our own admin, less well, on higher pay (with some help from departmental admin, but they were busy too). Still looks to the university like a cost-cutting wheeze as the drop in e.g. new grant income takes some time to happen and is hard to pin to those three months.
Comments
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574344555637399554
I can see the polls turning very bleak for them and other than a 'fear of labour' clawback i am starting to doubt they can come back. The narrative, the mood music, the commentariat feeding frenzy is upon us
https://trib.al/qyFk0ED
The obvious point at which to make that decision is the next opportunity to vote on a finance bill. Not sure when that is going to be but I hold a faint hope they will vote on the substantive issue rather than just along party lines.
World-beating, indeed !
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/26/sterlingpound-dollar-markets-live-news-tax-economy-ftse-100/
Of course, when "Pay your own bills" for the closed services go through the roof then they squeal like pigs. US healthcare is a good example.
The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond.
I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.
6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.
Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.
Or am I being unbelieveably dense? I can see that if you couldn't then get the savings money into the mortgage balance then you could end up worse off (e.g. early repayment limits/charges, but they tend to only apply during the fixed term in my experience).
If the Bank had risen rates as fast as the Fed have, then Sterling would be higher and the spread would be lower. Even last week they raised rates by less than the Fed.
KWACHA!
Then the Mini Budget arrived and what was a medium term issue (of too low interest rates) on Thursday became an immediate issue as the other party in Britain's economic management also lost credibility.
The Fed are smashing the world economy to bits, i'm afraid anything we do might well just get engulfed by that before it takes off.
Labour, and if this turns into ERM2 Tories under 200 by a distance.
At least Johnson has gone. That's what you wanted I think??
Chaos in an independent Scotland does sound better (and probably less chaotic) than steady as you go with Truss and co....
The Conservatives could have tried to play it cool, worked to make sure that the collapse and pain happened after a General Election, blamed Starmer and ridden back in glory in 2029.
By borrowing so much with such a thin plan, interest rates now look like rising to such a degree that growth won't happen and the pain is going to hit before the Conservatives can hide away in opposition.
Union, currency, environment all trashed
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1574320114207494145?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ
*popcorntastic*
Defence not looking great.
World soft power ... now reduced to claiming it's all down to royal funerals.
Environment not so much trashed, but only because it's significantly devolved, and of SG policies - notably and topically also on fracking. Edit: but Johnsonian and expecially Trussonomic lack of interest in COP and/or in renewables is a huge concern.
I think we are still short on evidence of the sort of 'far right' we associate with Mussolini, Germany in the 1930s, the era of dictators and so on.
So I shall wait and see. Test cases:
Will refugees be returned to their place of origin without an independent legal process
Will there be anti Jewish and/or anti Islamic legislation
Will same sex relationships be outlawed
Will Italy breach EU legislation
Will Italy leave the Euro or default on its government debt
Will it disengage form the international banking system
Will it use state violence in an arbitrary way
Will particular ethnicities be compelled to leave
Will it ban abortion for some or compel it for others.
Will it return to a theocratic state.
Those are 'far right' measures. For the moment I remain unconvinced. Which doesn't mean I support this shower of clowns.
This really is an inflection point. It could go south very very fast. They need a fiscally wily rabbit from the hat
https://www.thelocal.it/20220922/explained-is-brothers-of-italy-a-far-right-party/
To crib, because it is behind an semi functioning paywall:
- uses far right as defined by Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde, where Fascism and alt-right is 'extreme right', and merely (a) right of established centre-right, (b) anti-system and (c) lukewarm on democratic institutions
defines 'far right'
- commonalities and affiliation with AfD, Vox, Lega, Orban and strategising from Bannon
- the Italian term 'centre-right' for the coalition has to be seen in terms of open fascist parties like CasaPound
- separately notes the post-fascist heritage (passed through Alleanza Nationale, and by which token the main Italian left could be described as post-Communist)
-Meloni's admiring quotes for Mussolini when young (Fini had the same), plus slogans and the flame symbol from the Fascist era.
- UKIP like actions and suspensions of candidates going quite high up the structure for salutes, bad quotes etc
- nativist social policy, blockades, opposition to second generation citizenship (ius scholastics), natalism - suspicion of an end goal of ethnicity based citizenship
- explicit promotion of great replacement theory
- speaks of replacing parliamentary democracy with a democracy of the people (unclear what that means - note M5S have a love of Swiss referendum democracy, so I'd not automatically conclude this sinister)
Conclusion: fits the profile.
What more do you expect a far right politician seeking election in a Western European country in 2022 to say to demonstrate their far rightness?
Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.
As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.
The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.
Can't fault any of those. Would be nice to see that 45% transform into 43% at £100,000 with no clawback of allowances though...
For years she's been known in the civil service as the human hand grenade.
She too is completely out of her depth.
What a fuck up.
Government incompetence is pushing up the costs of my US trip considerably!
What a choice of political parties we currently have.
OECD growth estimates out today for 2023 show Germany dying in agony.
Paris on the eve of war but I forgot my wallet
Goodnight Vienna etc
Something has to give. Then everything will.
Woolie predicts the econopocalypse coming this winter/spring
Challenging Civil Service orthodoxy is precisely what she was voted in for.
She's got two years to do her best, or worst, depending upon your Point of View then the voters get to decide whether to continue with that or change course.
If all the Tories are going to do is implement Brownite Civil Service orthodoxy, as Sunak wanted, then we may as well have Labour doing that.
(Scrub that, they had a political plan behind them, just one that exploded in everyone's faces. Kwasinomics doesn't even have that to a meaningful degree.)
All very interesting, but there is still the question of what these winners in Italy will actually implement in terms of actions, laws, policies.
I think we are still short on evidence of the sort of 'far right' we associate with Mussolini, Germany in the 1930s, the era of dictators and so on.
So I shall wait and see. Test cases:
Will refugees be returned to their place of origin without an independent legal process
Will there be anti Jewish and/or anti Islamic legislation
Will same sex relationships be outlawed
Will Italy breach EU legislation
Will Italy leave the Euro or default on its government debt
Will it disengage form the international banking system
Will it use state violence in an arbitrary way
Will particular ethnicities be compelled to leave
Will it ban abortion for some or compel it for others.
Will it return to a theocratic state.
Those are 'far right' measures. For the moment I remain unconvinced. Which doesn't mean I support this shower of clowns.
Step 1: Sack a bunch of admin staff on £20k
Step 2: Get their work done by doctors on £70k using up 25-40% of their time
Step 3: Wonder why the outcomes are getting worse against money spent.
Step 4: Look at options to decrease non-medical-staff spend
Step 5: Return to Step 1
Given the choice between
a) helping her solve the mess she created or
b) watching the fireworks from a prime viewing point before very likely being drafted in to replace her
which one would you choose.
Few MPs are going to be rushing to join Truss's train wreck..
Will be a popular policy. But need detail.
There's a valid theory that every new PM tends to be an overreaction to the flaws of the last PM. That works here too.
The last PM was someone who didn't believe in anything, except how to further his own career, someone who believed in nothing and put himself first. The new PM now is the polar opposite, an ideologue who is doing what others dislike as she genuinely thinks its the right thing to do and is putting her ideology first.
Whether you like it or not, its a significant change.