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My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    I find it surprising but everyone I know in Cornwall has said that this year's tourist season seems to be going on forever....
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The relish from some posters for a crash in the housing market is absolutely despicable.

    You are talking about families, perhaps already struggling to get by, whose “crime” is simply to get a foothold on the property ladder.

    A crash in house prices doesn't directly affect anyone who's already bought unless they overextended themselves and need to refinance.
    True, but house price crashes are a consequence of interest rate rises which will already have directly affected anyone who bought at the limit of repayment affordability.
    And a house price crash will mean that anyone who takes out a mortgage going forwards needs to borrow less. What's wrong with that?

    All prices can go down as well as up.
    Nothing is wrong with it, but that doesn't affect the plight of people whose lives are wrecked going in to the crash. It is also only partly true, because interest rates will be higher and banks will demand bigger deposits.
    A bigger deposit means you are borrowing even less, of a smaller amount. That's not a bad thing.

    Not correcting a failed market because people are overleveraged will just mean never correcting it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    Leon said:

    There should be a German-Cornish compound noun for the “profound contentment that settles over the diner after half a dozen excellent fresh oysters and two good glasses of white”

    No other food can do this. There is something in oysters. Is it zinc? What is it?

    Wittering about oysters again. You know I dislike that. Still, so long as you didn't have them in a pub.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596

    IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    Petrol in the US was over $4 when I started my trip, but I filled up yesterday for $3.20. Experts here are already talking about inflation possibly having peaked.
    Hopefully the Fed stop screwing up the currency markets by ratchetting up base rates faster than everyone else.

    Inflation will come down hard next year, but the Fed aren't giving their rate moves time to work before they announce their next moves.
    Fed are careering the US into a depression
    Interesting idea. It doesn’t “feel” that way.
    As a casual observation it is remarkable how many retail outlets the US has; even small settlements seem surrounded by tons of them; and very few of them seem to be empty. Vacant retail plots don’t seem to be a ‘thing’, like you’d find in many parts of the UK, with even areas that aren’t seen as economically prosperous not having any obvious vacancy levels. And everywhere there are signs advertising vacancies, ‘hiring now’, etc., so the shortage seems to be people rather than money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    IPad. Behind the iPad my power pack. Then Falmouth harbour. Then Flushing and Carrick Roads. No sunnies
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022

    IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    Petrol in the US was over $4 when I started my trip, but I filled up yesterday for $3.20. Experts here are already talking about inflation possibly having peaked.
    Hopefully the Fed stop screwing up the currency markets by ratchetting up base rates faster than everyone else.

    Inflation will come down hard next year, but the Fed aren't giving their rate moves time to work before they announce their next moves.
    Fed are careering the US into a depression
    Interesting idea. It doesn’t “feel” that way.
    Time will tell, but the fx market, the stockmarkets worldwide are extremely volatile and the fed are crushing everything.
    Something has to give, then everything will.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    I think this is true. Kwasi's perp walk will feature prominently...

    That was a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1574367429379211265
  • WillGWillG Posts: 954
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another metric they won’t like the look of in @hmtreasury.
    The cost of insuring the UK against a default (credit default swaps) has risen v v sharply indeed in the past week.
    The higher these lines are, the bigger the risk.
    UK has just leapfrogged every G7 country save for Italy.
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574380571765121025/photo/1

    We can't actually default.

    I mean I see this as a huge gamble and the markets have already given their opinion but we can't technically default if we issue sterling debt.
    This is obviously untrue and proven by the fact that many countries who issue debt in their own currencies have defaulted.
  • TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574340968890900480

    The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond.
    I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.

    6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.

    Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.

    Not anticipating any of this, I fixed at 3.54% three weeks ago.... for ten years.
    I did wonder if that was the right thing to do. Seems it probably was.
  • It's worth recalling we did have worse inflation when Caracalla devalued the currency massively. And he was a murderous maniac. Whatever else her faults, I suspect Truss won't continually threaten to kill her own bodyguards.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 1,214
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    I think this is true. Kwasi's perp walk will feature prominently...

    That was a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1574367429379211265

    Mmmm, black man walks down the street in a suit and tie and the first instinct is to call it a "perp walk"....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,322

    Jonathan said:

    Reeves speaks , the pound rises.

    Seriously, it is now the case that the prospect of a Labour government will be welcomed by the markets. This is a dizzying change from anything I've ever known before. Even Blair and Mandelson only got as far as largely neutralising concerns about how a Labour government would manage the economy, but now it's the Tories who will have to try to win back confidence. It will take a very long time.
    The last time the Tories got spanked by the markets and trashed the economy, it took them 23 years before they won a majority.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Dont forget the dead look in the eyes also...all enthusiasm for life gone
  • WillGWillG Posts: 954
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

    Yes, it was always silly to consider something so frivolous as... *checks notes*... a pandemic that killed tens of millions of people worldwide... as an emergency.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There should be a German-Cornish compound noun for the “profound contentment that settles over the diner after half a dozen excellent fresh oysters and two good glasses of white”

    No other food can do this. There is something in oysters. Is it zinc? What is it?

    Wittering about oysters again. You know I dislike that. Still, so long as you didn't have them in a pub.

    You’re just a pleb. I can’t help that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    IPad. Behind the iPad my power pack. Then Falmouth harbour. Then Flushing and Carrick Roads. No sunnies
    Shame. I see you lounging back, open neck shirt, perhaps silk, eff off collar open to reveal a strand or two of jet black hair, sunglasses pushed back onto your mop of hair, taking in the beautiful people around you and vice versa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,914
    edited September 2022
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    When do house prices crash?

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/26/house-sellers-putting-up-prices-despite-rate-rises-and-cost-of-living-crisis

    House sellers have continued to raise their asking prices despite borrowers facing higher interest rates and the cost of living squeeze, data from property portal Rightmove shows.

    The average price of a home coming to market increased by £2,587, or 0.7% month-on-month in September to £367,760, according to the company.

    House prices will continue to increase because having a house is basically mandatory, and the government keeps stoking demand without increasing supply. Families can cut back on other expenses - food, heating, electricity, travel - but a house is an absolute, you either have one or you don't, and being genuinely homeless is so shit families will do whatever it takes to stay housed until rent/mortgage repayments surpass 100% of their income.
    The main driver is that there are plenty of cash buyers out there. Savills stated there were 482,000 cash buyers in the year to March 2022 and they spent £178bn buying homes, That was 17 and 32 per cent higher than the three-year average before the pandemic. More than 8 million people do not have a mortgage.

    That is what is driving up prices even as rates increase.
    Absolutely. We need a hefty and annual ongoing property tax on people with properties they aren't resident in, these "investments" are distorting the market dreadfully. If you want to invest, invest in businesses, not property.
    The market is being distorted because we've not built enough houses over 30 years! There's nothing wrong with people having multiple homes - just build more houses so supply can keep up with demand!
    Plenty of houses. Supply isn't the problem; affordability is.
    No. The population has increased massively more than the amount of properties built.

    The reasons for denying this vary. The simple truth is that we needed to build a fair sized city each year for decades to have kept up. A couple of Oxfords. Each year.

    Some people are fearful that this would turn more people against immigration. Others, that this would could the end of the protection of the “Green Belt”. Though they often don’t mean the actual green belt.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

    When we had furlough we had qe and
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Drying up in conversation
    You will be the one who cannot talk
    All your insides fall to pieces
    You just sit there wishing you could still make love
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,517
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Your occasional reminder that Kwasi Kwarteng's PhD thesis was literally on the subject of the debasement of currency in England.

    https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/251742 https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1574329107252248576/photo/1

    Can Cambridge revoke his PhD for making them an embarrassment...
    Kwarteng's academic achievements are seriously fecking impressive.

    Double first. Two University Prizes. A Kennedy Scholarship. Winning team on University Challenge. PhD in economic history. Friendship with @rcs1000 (as I recollect).

    He is certainly the academically most gifted Cabinet Minister since ... Harold Wilson?

    Personally, I don't understand why anyone so academically gifted would go into politics ...
    Indeed.

    I have a weakness perhaps for properly educated politicians, and on paper Kwarteng looks brilliant.

    However he was considered a waste of space at BEIS, and now he is quite terrifyingly out of his depth.

    That video (perp walk) posted just now, shows a man onto his third pair of keks this morning.

  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Your occasional reminder that Kwasi Kwarteng's PhD thesis was literally on the subject of the debasement of currency in England.

    https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/251742 https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1574329107252248576/photo/1

    Can Cambridge revoke his PhD for making them an embarrassment...
    Kwarteng's academic achievements are seriously fecking impressive.

    Double first. Two University Prizes. A Kennedy Scholarship. Winning team on University Challenge. PhD in economic history. Friendship with @rcs1000 (as I recollect).

    He is certainly the academically most gifted Cabinet Minister since ... Harold Wilson?

    Personally, I don't understand why anyone so academically gifted would go into politics ...
    Indeed.

    I have a weakness perhaps for properly educated politicians, and on paper Kwarteng looks brilliant.

    However he was considered a waste of space at BEIS, and now he is quite terrifyingly out of his depth.

    That video (perp walk) posted just now, shows a man onto his third pair of keks this morning.

    Too clever by half comes to mind frankly.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164

    That video (perp walk) posted just now, shows a man onto his third pair of keks this morning.

    What's that colourful equestrian expression? "He looks like he was ridden hard and put away wet." ~AA
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1574374610199781378
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1574367429379211265
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The relish from some posters for a crash in the housing market is absolutely despicable.

    You are talking about families, perhaps already struggling to get by, whose “crime” is simply to get a foothold on the property ladder.

    A crash in house prices doesn't directly affect anyone who's already bought unless they overextended themselves and need to refinance.
    True, but house price crashes are a consequence of interest rate rises which will already have directly affected anyone who bought at the limit of repayment affordability.
    And a house price crash will mean that anyone who takes out a mortgage going forwards needs to borrow less. What's wrong with that?

    All prices can go down as well as up.
    Nothing is wrong with it, but that doesn't affect the plight of people whose lives are wrecked going in to the crash. It is also only partly true, because interest rates will be higher and banks will demand bigger deposits.
    A bigger deposit means you are borrowing even less, of a smaller amount. That's not a bad thing.

    Not correcting a failed market because people are overleveraged will just mean never correcting it.
    Sadly i think shielding people from risk as we have done since 2008 is turning out to be a total disaster
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    It’s why mobile phones were invented….


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    WillG said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another metric they won’t like the look of in @hmtreasury.
    The cost of insuring the UK against a default (credit default swaps) has risen v v sharply indeed in the past week.
    The higher these lines are, the bigger the risk.
    UK has just leapfrogged every G7 country save for Italy.
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574380571765121025/photo/1

    We can't actually default.

    I mean I see this as a huge gamble and the markets have already given their opinion but we can't technically default if we issue sterling debt.
    This is obviously untrue and proven by the fact that many countries who issue debt in their own currencies have defaulted.
    Well people can stop buying our debt because they fear rampant inflation or the government could refuse to pay back or service the debt, which would be a default, but is an endogenous, not exogenous one, or the market interest rate required rises (as we are seeing), all of which would be pretty bad but are not a forced default.

    Which examples were you thinking of?
  • Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Well at least when I remortgage at whatever % I'll only have 5 more months of non Gov't paid nursery.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There should be a German-Cornish compound noun for the “profound contentment that settles over the diner after half a dozen excellent fresh oysters and two good glasses of white”

    No other food can do this. There is something in oysters. Is it zinc? What is it?

    Wittering about oysters again. You know I dislike that. Still, so long as you didn't have them in a pub.

    You’re just a pleb. I can’t help that
    Oysters were once upon a time a cheap food for the lower classes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Does anyone know (assuming it is successful) the size limit of the kind of meteor that it would work on?
  • Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Why don't you offer them a threesome? You're obviously feeling frisky, and the oysters will have got you all in the mood. If they say no at least they will have something to talk about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    It’s why mobile phones were invented….


    Which one is you?
  • Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    BoE options:
    1) Say & do nothing - looks clueless/ asleep at the wheel
    2) Say something but do nothing - looks toothless
    3) Do something small (50bps) - mkt will push you to do more, perhaps quickly
    4) Do something big - if this doesn't work, you are in a worse position than (1)

    https://twitter.com/darioperkins/status/1574379430989873152
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Blackford

    I've written to
    @trussliz
    demanding an emergency recall of Parliament following the disastrous Tory budget.

    The UK economy is in crisis. All of us will pay the price as interest rates, mortgages and the cost of goods rise.

    MPs should be in parliament holding the govt to account

    https://twitter.com/Ianblackford_MP/status/1574354150707675136
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reeves promises no more austerity under Labour

    So not that adult then. Just another politician/liar who claims we can go on borrowing indefinitely.
    Labour are going to put up taxes to pay for that extra spending though, especially for high earners and corporations
    Tsk, paying for things is so 20th Century…
    One thing is this utterly tanked the belief in MMT, something which those on the left might want to look at.
    "This thing that is in no way like MMT failing shows how MMT doesn't work" doesn't make much sense.

    I'm not an economist or even particularly good at economics, but from my understanding MMT argues that taxation needs to be a lever to use to reduce inflation once money is hoarded. MMT includes borrowing, printing money and targeted increases in taxation.

    Truss' plan so far is borrowing and reducing taxation at the same time, something which is likely to increase inflation; we are in a supply-side issue (reduced supply due to covid) and instead of a supply-side solution Truss has decided to flood more money to the wealthiest, who would only spend money on luxury items where supply is limited, rather than the poorest who will spend their money on items where supply is more stable - necessities and such.
    MMT is the trad equation but shuffling the terms around.

    Instead of 2 + 2 = 4 it's 4 - 2 = 2.

    Profound stuff.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,520

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    Dead Cat Bounce
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,890
     

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    It's happened already. Over and done.

  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Pulpstar said:

    Well at least when I remortgage at whatever % I'll only have 5 more months of non Gov't paid nursery.

    Are you paying that at the moment? If you aren't remortgaging now while that expense isn't visible on your bank statements may make sense...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    A senior Tory MP said that the growth plan was looking like an “absolute disaster” and told Sky News some newer MPs were already discussing whether it was possible to get rid of a new Prime Minister in the first weeks of their term.

    1/


    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-party-conference-live-battle-lines-drawn-with-mini-budget-frontbencher-says-labour-shouldnt-reverse-basic-rate-income-tax-cut-12593360
  • Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    When I was in Manchester last week, I had noodles from Chopstix outside Piccadilly station on Monday night, plant-based sub from Subway next-door on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, I had a plant-based whopper and fries from Burger King, and on Thursday, cheese pizza and a salad baguette from Greggs :lol::lol:

  • Cicero said:

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    Dead Cat Bounce
    Headline in Bloomberg

    Global bond rout continues
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There should be a German-Cornish compound noun for the “profound contentment that settles over the diner after half a dozen excellent fresh oysters and two good glasses of white”

    No other food can do this. There is something in oysters. Is it zinc? What is it?

    Wittering about oysters again. You know I dislike that. Still, so long as you didn't have them in a pub.

    You’re just a pleb. I can’t help that
    Honestly leon more talk like that and you will bring on the revolution
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446
    edited September 2022
    Rachel Reeves pledges to spend top rate tax on more nurses

    I thought the other day she called getting rid of it irresponsible borrowing.....but Labour's plan is putting it back will just result in more spending....

    Its like that classic change scam where the scammer takes the change from a purchase, then says can you just change that to something else and before you know it they have walked off having cost you more than the change you originally gave out.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

    I agree, but I think people are getting wise to the 'national emergency' gambit. They have maybe had enough of emergencies, which they can see are an excuse to do anything.

    I was just listening to Meloni speaking (In translation obviously). If there's a shift to people like her broadly, no way are we getting a majority labour government in 2024.
  • Rachel Reeves pledges to spend top rate tax on more nurses

    I thought the other day she called getting rid of it irresponsible borrowing.....but Labour's plan is putting it back will just result in more spending....

    They never learn either
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    Rachel Reeves pledges to spend top rate tax on more nurses

    I thought the other day she called getting rid of it irresponsible borrowing.....but Labour's plan is putting it back will just result in more spending....

    She is obviously a bright button, is Rachel, but she was kebabbed this morning by Martha Kearney on The Today Prog who pushed her on how the bit of the tax cut that Lab would keep would be paid for. Very uncomfortable listening for Lab supporters.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,438
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    There should be a German-Cornish compound noun for the “profound contentment that settles over the diner after half a dozen excellent fresh oysters and two good glasses of white”

    No other food can do this. There is something in oysters. Is it zinc? What is it?

    Wittering about oysters again. You know I dislike that. Still, so long as you didn't have them in a pub.

    You’re just a pleb. I can’t help that
    Oysters were once upon a time a cheap food for the lower classes.
    Salmon as well

    indeed didn’t London apprentices once famously have articles in their contracts of employ limiting the number of times they could be given oysters and salmon for lunch. Or something like that

    However I wonder if this is urban myth. Because oysters were highly prized by the Romans, especially British oysters

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    The Romans used to race to get Colchester oysters to the markets of Italy, packed in ice, in boats and chariots. Allegedly someone once did it in under a week
  • eek said:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574340968890900480

    The number of households due to re-fix their mortgages will peak at the very moment when, if market curves are to be believed, BoE interest rates will rise to 6% or possibly beyond.
    I know I keep repeating this but still: this is a very big deal.

    6% Base rates probably mean mortgage rates at 7% or so which is well above what the BoE suggested be used for affordability checks.

    Worse it means your 2.5% fixed rate mortgage is going to cost 57% more when it comes to renewal.

    Not anticipating any of this, I fixed at 3.54% three weeks ago.... for ten years.
    I did wonder if that was the right thing to do. Seems it probably was.
    I got in a 5 year fix back in March. I am one of the lucky ones - relief doesn’t begin to describe it.
  • IanB2 said:

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    carnforth said:

    As I understand it, the gas price guarantee caps at a benchmark of £2500 when the predicted un-capped price would be about £5000.

    If so, that should mean that each 1% fall in the price of gas reduces the government's obligation by 2% and so on.

    Petrol in the US was over $4 when I started my trip, but I filled up yesterday for $3.20. Experts here are already talking about inflation possibly having peaked.
    Hopefully the Fed stop screwing up the currency markets by ratchetting up base rates faster than everyone else.

    Inflation will come down hard next year, but the Fed aren't giving their rate moves time to work before they announce their next moves.
    Fed are careering the US into a depression
    It is somewhat depressing that Kwasi and Liz barely tinkering at the edges of Britain's tax burden is generating a cacophony of yowling from the usual economic illiterates, yet the US fed's reckless rate rises (after keeping rates artificially low for so long) isn't even a subject of discussion. I suppose if it isn't somehow related to Brexit, it's criticism-proof.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PeterM said:

    Heathener said:

    If anything the Queen's death helped Liz Truss by (allegedly) uniting the country and deflecting away from her ineptitude.

    Nothing was going to cause a Conservative poll lead. Truss is inept and a liability.

    As for the budget: the stupidest for half a century.

    The UK is in trouble. The tories even more so.

    The world is in trouble. The Fed are torching everything. Once our turn is over its back to mudering the Euro.
    OECD growth estimates out today for 2023 show Germany dying in agony.
    Paris on the eve of war but I forgot my wallet
    Goodnight Vienna etc
    Something has to give. Then everything will.
    Woolie predicts the econopocalypse coming this winter/spring
    Also how will all this pain impact the support for the ukraine war as it grinds on through the winter
    I think the next development is that Russia will officially declare war on Ukraine at the start of next week. The referenda occurring & Ukranian control of Zaporizhia pretty much guarantee it.
    I agree as to Russia declaring war. It's totally a ridiculous convoluted thought process given that Ukraine has made repeated strikes inside Russia (never mind Crimea) without Russia declaring war.
    Russia won't declare war. They can't. It's not allowed by the UN.
    Call it something else, anything else, but I don't think there has been a formal DOW since 1945. Truly we are living in peaceful times.

    Besides, Ukraine hasn't hit Crimea or Belgograd or anywhere else inside Russia. Russia just has a huge problem with fire safety on army bases. Even the official Ukrainian twitter account confirmed this!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022

    Cicero said:

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    Dead Cat Bounce
    Headline in Bloomberg

    Global bond rout continues
    The world economy is teetering, whats hsppening here is partly due to that but exacerbated by the spivs worrying about funding it all etc, govt not giving more certainty, the BoE lagging the fed badly and speculators getting hardons.
    Ultimately though, its a global thing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,322

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Why don't you offer them a threesome? You're obviously feeling frisky, and the oysters will have got you all in the mood. If they say no at least they will have something to talk about.
    Or he could find an exciting woman to spend time with.
  • Ha, maybe if I have a surplus of time tomorrow I should write a ramble about Jovian.

    While I'm glad the pound had risen from the low I wish that had happened just as I was getting paid (in dollars).
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    MISTY said:

    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

    I agree, but I think people are getting wise to the 'national emergency' gambit. They have maybe had enough of emergencies, which they can see are an excuse to do anything.

    I was just listening to Meloni speaking (In translation obviously). If there's a shift to people like her broadly, no way are we getting a majority labour government in 2024.
    That would depend on a nationalist party on the right displacing the tories....could happen would likely get oap and red wall support
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,520
    KK is indeed said to be super bright, but one OE told me he is totally "Midvale School for the gifted" (Gary Larson cartoon) and no common sense, EQ, or empathy.

    Brilliant academically, but socially? Not so much.
  • Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Cicero said:

    KK is indeed said to be super bright, but one OE told me he is totally "Midvale School for the gifted" (Gary Larson cartoon) and no common sense, EQ, or empathy.

    Brilliant academically, but socially? Not so much.

    The only thing he has been right about so far is "this will be unpopular"
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    PeterM said:

    MISTY said:

    TOPPING said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.

    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Exactly. This is what we need to appreciate. I sound like a stuck record but we moved the Overton Window with our furlough scheme and other Covid measures. Once you say that XXXX is a national emergency requiring us to spend money, then you can say YYYY is a national emergency requiring us to spend money.

    When Lab get in, but actually any flavour of government which is next elected, the national emergency will no doubt be the NHS, homelessness, the railways, the utilities, Tescos, you name it.

    I agree, but I think people are getting wise to the 'national emergency' gambit. They have maybe had enough of emergencies, which they can see are an excuse to do anything.

    I was just listening to Meloni speaking (In translation obviously). If there's a shift to people like her broadly, no way are we getting a majority labour government in 2024.
    That would depend on a nationalist party on the right displacing the tories....could happen would likely get oap and red wall support
    Good point, we could get a labour government by default if such a party could take enough tory votes. REFUK at 7% in the red wall in a few polls, but Tice soft pedals big time compared to Meloni.
  • Cicero said:

    KK is indeed said to be super bright, but one OE told me he is totally "Midvale School for the gifted" (Gary Larson cartoon) and no common sense, EQ, or empathy.

    Brilliant academically, but socially? Not so much.

    And yet, a great hit with the laydeeeezzzz.
    Allegedly.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,000
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    I stayed at Old Thorns Hotel/Golf Club on friday night (just north of Petersfield)

    Since I last stayed there it has expanded somewhat. What was most incredible was just how busy it was. It felt like there were thousands of people there. The Sports Bar (the biggest one I have been in) was rammed with people watching the football, there were 2 weddings and a massive 80s disco. The hotel was completely full. It was £6 a pint and the various bars were doing a roaring trade. It felt miles away from a recession hit Country.
  • TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Human arrogance. Not content with buggering up this planet they want to violate another body in the solar system.

    A totally unethical mission.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Does anyone know (assuming it is successful) the size limit of the kind of meteor that it would work on?
    AIUI it's specifically designed *not* to work, in a way. From memory, it's a binary asteroid system in orbit around each other. They're hitting the 'smaller' one, and then observing the way the orbit of the larger one alters, along with the properties of the material that is expelled. They're just gathering data, rather than actually saying a kinetic impactor is the way to divert asteroids.

    IMV there will be several different techniques: you might divert an iron-core asteroid by detonating a nuke nearby (specifically not trying to break it up, but heating one surface and letting Newton's third law take effect). If the asteroid or comet is loose material, you might want a gentle pusher.
  • Cicero said:

    KK is indeed said to be super bright, but one OE told me he is totally "Midvale School for the gifted" (Gary Larson cartoon) and no common sense, EQ, or empathy.

    Brilliant academically, but socially? Not so much.

    Rory Stewart talked a bit about him on his podcast. Mentioned, as everyone does, how clever he is but also arrogant. Apparently he would never engage with another point of view counter to his own ideas, just tell them that they were wrong without explanation. It certainly chimes with a certain kind of 'smart' person.
  • TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Human arrogance. Not content with buggering up this planet they want to violate another body in the solar system.

    A totally unethical mission.
    I had a feeling you might say that. Needless to say, I disagree.
  • I saw a clip of Chloe Smith on Sky News. She spoke with calm authority. It was only the fact that she was defending the government's economic policy that revealed her to be bonkers.
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Your occasional reminder that Kwasi Kwarteng's PhD thesis was literally on the subject of the debasement of currency in England.

    https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/251742 https://twitter.com/alanbeattie/status/1574329107252248576/photo/1

    Can Cambridge revoke his PhD for making them an embarrassment...
    Kwarteng's academic achievements are seriously fecking impressive.

    Double first. Two University Prizes. A Kennedy Scholarship. Winning team on University Challenge. PhD in economic history. Friendship with @rcs1000 (as I recollect).

    He is certainly the academically most gifted Cabinet Minister since ... Harold Wilson?

    Personally, I don't understand why anyone so academically gifted would go into politics ...
    University Challenge pah! @Tissue_Price won Only Connect and worked for a bookie. And what has Kwasi said in Parliament that is half as memorable as Does the Prime Minister think I'm a fool?
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1488189476685893639
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,477
    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    It's Falmouth at the tail end of the holiday season. If you were sat there in November and it was busy then I would accept your statement but until the end of October it's going to be busy....
    Mate, I’m Cornish. I have multiple family members all over Cornwall (including Falmouth), and I have spent many months here and probably visit four or five times a year

    It is not normal for oyster restaurants in Falmouth to be absolutely rammed on a cool, breezy Monday lunchtime in late September

    Cornwall has boomed in recent years. Which is great for the locals who don’t mind the crowds. It is also shows there are plenty of people with money to spend
    One last hurrah before nuclear armageddon/mortgage rates of 15%/meteor strike (which I see NASA is doing something about today).

    What's that behind your laptop?
    Thanks, I'd forgotten that the DART mission was today!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63006717
    Does anyone know (assuming it is successful) the size limit of the kind of meteor that it would work on?
    AIUI it's specifically designed *not* to work, in a way. From memory, it's a binary asteroid system in orbit around each other. They're hitting the 'smaller' one, and then observing the way the orbit of the larger one alters, along with the properties of the material that is expelled. They're just gathering data, rather than actually saying a kinetic impactor is the way to divert asteroids.

    IMV there will be several different techniques: you might divert an iron-core asteroid by detonating a nuke nearby (specifically not trying to break it up, but heating one surface and letting Newton's third law take effect). If the asteroid or comet is loose material, you might want a gentle pusher.
    Thanks
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,457
    edited September 2022
    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune on Friday against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but will now also be making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    I saw a clip of Chloe Smith on Sky News. She spoke with calm authority. It was only the fact that she was defending the government's economic policy that revealed her to be bonkers.

    Shes a good egg. Derailed by her fight with breast cancer for a bit and, as a Norwich resident, i predict she will lose her seat even if a general tory implosion is avoided.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,717

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Some couples are happy just to sit in silence and just enjoy each's company.

    There are all sorts of silences, from hostile ones to contented ones where people understand each other beyond words.

    I once ate a meal on the next table to a peripheral minor royal and their partner who barely spoke to each other and spent the meal looking miserable.

    Or they could just be really boring people, and we'll suited as a couple.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Wow.

    5 weeks ago, the UK was seen as pretty much the safest country in the G7 against default, with the risk only fractionally more than Germany.

    Now, it's second-worst, behind only Italy. In five weeks.
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574380571765121025
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,457
    edited September 2022
    PeterM said:

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
    His Brexit and Truss bets look to be some of the best on record..

    I see there's calls for an into privileged pre-budget information following Friday and his Pound shorting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    I wonder how high sterling has to go before the BBC take down their headlines about it crashing to its lowest level etc.
  • Leon said:

    Recession?

    I’m in a very pleasant seafood gaff in Falmouth snacking down on half a dozen Porthilly oysters, and the place is rammed. On a Monday lunchtime. Turning away lots of customers 🤷‍♂️






    Really great Kiwi sauv blanc as well. Turtle Bay

    When I was in Manchester last week, I had noodles from Chopstix outside Piccadilly station on Monday night, plant-based sub from Subway next-door on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, I had a plant-based whopper and fries from Burger King, and on Thursday, cheese pizza and a salad baguette from Greggs :lol::lol:

    And we can all guess what you were up to during Rachel's speech...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,717
    PeterM said:

    How interesting - Odey has not only made a fortune against the Pound after heavily backing Truss, but is also now making a fortune against UK government bonds.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

    check his performance record...hes been pretty useless in recent years and has had many losing bets
    So, his information has got a lot better 🤔
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    edited September 2022
    No idea why oysters are seen as posh food. They are the plentiful fruit of the sea, and aren't expensive at all. I think it's usually just fussy eaters trying to pretend there is something weird and flashy about them, to distract from their simply being gastronomic wusses.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    There wont be one. Its a few hardcore Sunakites playing silly buggars. If it balloons she would then deploy the GE threat.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    The solution is not another leadership race

    The solution is defenestrating Truss
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,717
    DavidL said:

    I wonder how high sterling has to go before the BBC take down their headlines about it crashing to its lowest level etc.

    No matter how high the dead cat bounce, the headline remains true...
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,890
    DavidL said:

    I wonder how high sterling has to go before the BBC take down their headlines about it crashing to its lowest level etc.

    the pound hit $1.03 in early trading in Asia – the lowest rate since the dollar was invented in 1792. - Fraser Nelson

    Knocks all those "lowest/highest thing since records began…" comments by BBC reporters into a cocked hat.

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,477

    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    There wont be one. Its a few hardcore Sunakites playing silly buggars. If it balloons she would then deploy the GE threat.
    But still, why is the nation secondary to more and more Tory infighting? Brexit, Johnson, now Truss. It all seems to be based on the fact that the Tory party isn't really one cohesive party, but is the only party that can keep out Labour, and their internal squabbles just break things along the way. If MPs are already putting in letters, just give back the whip or refuse to vote for the government, don't always revert back to a new leader.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,492
    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    I once spent a night in a pub with a friend. Old married couple at another table said nothing at all, all night, other than every 30 mins the chap said 'Another drink then?', and received an assent.
    I bet they ripped each other's clothes off back home, the randy 70 year olds that they were.
  • PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Ah, but did you get the chance to see the woman's choice of necklace? They could be a right pair of adventurists.
    i feel sorry for Leon...his biggest entertainment during the day seems to be to come on this site and give us his erudite and witty insights lol
    He's one of these people who spends years trying to persuade people how brilliant his life is, whilst appearing to all and sundry as a slightly pathetic, tragic figure.

    Reminds me of this song:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0DCclB1Mjc
  • Leon said:

    There’s a middle aged married couple next to me having lunch. So far their conversation has consisted of noting that it is “quite breezy”, and “the chowder is nice”

    AND THAT’S IT. In an hour

    WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT

    This is why I will die single. If I got married again I would die sooner, from boredom

    Drying up in conversation
    You will be the one who cannot talk
    All your insides fall to pieces
    You just sit there wishing you could still make love
    I get this reference. This pleases me. I like pineapple on pizza too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    It’s not that long that we were at $1.30. The thing that has ‘happened’ is that we’re now below $1.10, not that it has bounced about a bit below that level.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    In what world is the solution to Liz Truss' premiership another Tory leadership race?

    Like, what has happened to PMs and their power that they (Johnson didn't do it either) aren't using a GE as a tool to whip their party?

    https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1574341646799540230?s=46&t=7TD28jRGGwmB0wa16un2YA&fbclid=IwAR3FFDeCkR_XGd-cLxDhRqad55RbQ-YMTfltVb2p9D8ipU65L2e6Tlv2ZWM

    There wont be one. Its a few hardcore Sunakites playing silly buggars. If it balloons she would then deploy the GE threat.
    But still, why is the nation secondary to more and more Tory infighting? Brexit, Johnson, now Truss. It all seems to be based on the fact that the Tory party isn't really one cohesive party, but is the only party that can keep out Labour, and their internal squabbles just break things along the way. If MPs are already putting in letters, just give back the whip or refuse to vote for the government, don't always revert back to a new leader.
    I agree. Put up or shut up. Form a breakoff centrist party, join with Farage and form a red wall storming, Labour threatening working class right wing movement. Do whatever, but do it.

    Edit - same goes for the Corbynites, the Unions etc
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,316
    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
  • IanB2 said:

    Something must be happening as the pound is above Fridays close

    It’s not that long that we were at $1.30. The thing that has ‘happened’ is that we’re now below $1.10, not that it has bounced about a bit below that level.
    Look at the price of Gas Futures over the past 6 weeks, it can lose or gain 30% in a day with no real reason.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    darkage said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sacking Sir Tom Scholar on Day 1 wasn't terribly smart, was it?

    Why?

    They wanted a break with ideology of the past they didn't believe in. They need a team that believe in, or at least willing to implement, their own ideology.

    The markets will just have to react and adapt. We have a freely floating exchange rate, so let it freely float.
    I thought the whole point of the Civil Service was that people would deliver policy even if they didn't agree with it. Indeed, having sceptics on a team is useful, more likely to spot the pitfalls and have some solutions ready to go if it all goes to shit.

    You shouldn't have to sack people to implement your democratic mandate. Advisers advise etc...Whether that mandate exists is another question.
    Well yes, you shouldn't have to. Scholar should have been prepared to implement Truss and Kwarteng's ideas.

    If he wasn't, then he wasn't fit to be in the Treasury, he should go into politics if he wants his own ideas instead.
    Any evidence of your claim that he wasn't willing to do his job? Or are you simply assuming the worst about him in order to justify his sacking?
    They need to neuter "Treasury Orthodoxy" - aka keeping at least something of a grip on the public finances - to smooth the way for their "Reforms". I imagine this is why he had to go.
    Spending GBP400bn on furlough, riddled with fraud, paying people to do nothing: Perfectly logical.

    Spending GBP60bn giving people their own money back: Insane gamble of the century.

    Or could it be the other way around.....?
    Well I don't share the majority opinion that this is an insane gamble. It's reckless, yes, but I see the political logic.

    Objectively speaking the government should be running a neutral fiscal policy (in tandem with monetary tightening from the BoE) until inflation is under control. Then, with that more stable platform, go with their ideological preference for slashing tax.

    But they can't wait because of the electoral timetable. With no "Charisma" Johnson, no "Scary" Corbyn, no Brexit fatigue, the urge to get "it" done, and seeking another tory term after 14 years of tory terms, they know they're bound to lose on "time for a change" if they just tick along with damage limitation and do what's sensible.

    So, this. Rock in the pond. Create newness, create a BIG divide with Labour, tory tax cutters vs labour tax & spend, small state vs stale old consensus, dynamism vs back to Brown ... you know, all the shit you come out with ... try and build that narrative between now and the election.

    Might work. I doubt it but it might. I think, oddly, that the chance of both a Con majority and a Lab majority is greater now than it was a week ago.
    The next thing to look out for is the 'emergency spending review' where vast portions of the state are slashed.
    Love to know what spending can actually be slashed - there really isn't much that can go without the impact being electorally damaging to the Tory party.
This discussion has been closed.