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My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageMy September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

Regular PBers will recall that back in July I was suggesting that a Tory poll lead in September was a likely possibility because the new leader would get a bounce. The contest finished on September 5th and there was plenty of time I reasoned during the month for just one poll to put the Tories over the line

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Good morning, been on holiday in Greece for a week, come back and the countries turned even more to s***.

    Honestly, that mini-budget on Friday was worse for what it didn't talk about over what it did.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,768
    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Interest rates flatlined for a decade when things were quite good. I still think that if rates had been at around 2% by the time of the referendum, then Remain would have won.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
  • Not as sick as the UK economy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Don't look at me, I was team Rishi....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited September 26

    Good morning, been on holiday in Greece for a week, come back and the countries turned even more to s***.

    Honestly, that mini-budget on Friday was worse for what it didn't talk about over what it did.

    Yes, we were just talking about Greece, and Osborne's ridiculous claim that Labour was turning the UK into Greece, economically speaking. Funny, that..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    Current remit letter says

    "I hereby re-confirm the inflation target as 2 per cent as measured by the 12-month
    increase in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The inflation target of 2 per cent is symmetric
    and applies at all times. This reflects the primacy of price stability and the forward-looking
    inflation target in the UK monetary policy framework. The government’s commitment to
    price stability, and the Bank of England’s operational independence remains absolute."

    Nothing about You can only make decisions every 6 weeks.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
  • :innocent:
  • Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited September 26
    "The demise of the Queen gross ineptitude of the new PM and her Chancellor rather put an end to any idea of a honeymoon for Truss and that is what I had been counting on."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Whilst Truss must carry responsibility for her unforced errors, Boris must take responsibility for the underlying weakness. It’s like waking up with a massive hangover.

    The major lesson from all this is ego and ideology is ultimately bad for business. Who knew? 🤷‍♀️
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth:

    "Modern monetary theory has been taken into a corner by the bond markets and beaten up."
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited September 26
    Possibly the greatest example of First world problems you will ever see

    https://twitter.com/TheSecondBag/status/1574313640643149824

    Replying to
    @faisalislam
    And the pain you feel on the UK is affecting all of us who retired elsewhere. The Eastern Caribbean dollar is dropping to parity and our bills and food costs are getting higher. We are suffering through exchange rate devaluation
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited September 26
    Doomsday Cult

    "Investors 'inclined to regard Conservative Party as a doomsday cult', says analyst

    Investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative Party as a doomsday cult, according to Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management."


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/sep/26/sterling-record-low-tax-cuts-investors-kwarteng-truss-ftse-stock-markets-business-live 09:14
  • Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,160
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    Doesn't the weak pound affect the inflation rate, which is very clearly within the BoE's remit?
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    FPT Nick Palmer: "Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?"

    I still have a lot of time for my MP, who has the right instincts - and needs to be in the mix to remedy the mistakes of the Liz Truss premiership. I would likely vote for him personally. But if those of the top of the Party were still acting in a way that I thought was not in the best interests of the country, I would be torn between voting for him and sitting on my hands.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    I hope to goodness this is not a false-flag attack:

    "A gunman has opened fire at a school in central Russia, killing at least six people and injuring twenty, Russian officials say."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63032790
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Crisis, what crisis?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    edited September 26
    Truss has certainly not got a bounce of any significance, certainly compared to Johnson, May, Brown or Major who took the lead after taking over midterm. A mini budget focused mainly on the rich is hardly helping that. However if it does lead to growth one may emerge
  • Let's try an analogy:

    Your yacht's flat on its side, your rudder's floating away, your radio's dead and there's a howling on-shore gale with a tide race behind it. But you've still got the mainsheet in your hand. Do you pull it in or let it out?

    Bailey's dilemma.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    eek said:

    Possibly the greatest example of First world problems you will ever see

    https://twitter.com/TheSecondBag/status/1574313640643149824

    Replying to
    @faisalislam
    And the pain you feel on the UK is affecting all of us who retired elsewhere. The Eastern Caribbean dollar is dropping to parity and our bills and food costs are getting higher. We are suffering through exchange rate devaluation

    ...have you seen the price of avocados in Waitrose!?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,542

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978

    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Ludicrous. If the pound follows the euro below parity it wouldn't be surprising.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
    Charles I expect will be more vocal in his audiences about his views on policy, whereas his mother tended to keep her personal views to herself. However he will still let Truss do what she wants to do, I expect he is already preparing for a Starmer premiership anyway. Truss will likely have the shortest premiership since Douglas Home
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,160

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Missing the point as usual.

    1. A weak pound affects inflation and the cost of living.
    2. The cost of servicing our debt has gone up. That is money which could be spent elsewhere more productively being wasted on servicing a debt run up for purposes which do little or nothing to deal with the reasons why Britain has low growth.
    3. A weak pound might normally help exporters but we have made that more difficult for ourselves by increasing barriers to trade with one of the biggest markets on our doorstep.

    A stable sensible government with a clear well-thought out and broadly financially literate economic policy is essential for long-term investment. Anyone looking at the politics of Britain in the last few years is not seeing that.

  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    eek said:

    Possibly the greatest example of First world problems you will ever see

    https://twitter.com/TheSecondBag/status/1574313640643149824

    Replying to
    @faisalislam
    And the pain you feel on the UK is affecting all of us who retired elsewhere. The Eastern Caribbean dollar is dropping to parity and our bills and food costs are getting higher. We are suffering through exchange rate devaluation

    ...have you seen the price of avocados in Waitrose!?
    We have Booths - why would I lower myself to go to Waitrose...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    I'm actually still a bit shocked that the Friday budget actually happened. The currency and sovereign debt crisis we're going to face this week were entirely predictable, in fact many lowly analysts in these parts predicted exactly this market reaction when the scale and stupidity of the tax cuts were realised.

    I remember saying early in the summer that priority one for the incoming Rishi/Liz government was to win market credibility with targeted tax cuts for growth and spending cuts to balance the budget because we, as a nation, need to sell ~£250bn worth of new gilts over the next two years plus roll over another £150bn and the BoE won't be driving up gilt prices. In fact it's worse because now we need to sell £350bn in new gilts, roll over £150bn and the BoE is selling £80bn, so over two years we need markets to finance the UK economy to the tune of £580bn, it's an absolutely gigantic ask for a nation running a 5-6% current account deficit and no plan to reduce it and a a 7.5% current budget deficit and no plan to reduce it.

    The Liz/Kwasi government has done precisely the opposite and now we, as a nation, face financial ruin as the market calls time on lending at reasonable rates.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    Correction it was $1.12 before the mini budget. $1.15 was before the Bank chose to raise base rates by less than the Fed.

    So yes $1.12 to $1.08 is a 3.5% change but that sort of variance is quite standard not extraordinary, in 2008 there was a change from $2 to $1.40 so a 30% change. Comparable would be us going to roughly £1 = 80 cents now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited September 26
    Holding tight (Save the energy package which was absolubtely needed) would probably have been the best idea tbh.
    The shipping freight indexes indicate inflation is likely cooling.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The dollar exchange rate more than halved between 1980 and 1985, but that was the same period when our relative decline went into reverse. You shouldn't treat the value of the currency as a virility symbol for the economy as a whole.
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Up to now, the precedent has been that the worse it gets for the government, the longer they play it. No point calling an election that you are going to lose until you absolutely have to.

    Set against that, we could be on track for a zombie government led by a millenial cult who have two years and a seventy seat majority to play with. That couldn't be allowed to happen- could it?

    Immovable object, meet irresistible force.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Holding tight (Save the energy package which was absolubtely needed) would probably have been the best idea tbh.
    The shipping freight indexes indicate inflation is likely cooling.

    yes shipping freight trend very good news
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    I mentioned the silver lining for the tourist industry in the previous thread. More silver linings for the financial sector: UK asset valuations are looking tasty. Could be a bit of an M&A bonanza, particularly for UK infrastructure. Whether that's good news or bad really depends on whether you're a PE house or a member of the British public.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    ...
    Time for a government.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    Have we abandoned GBP in favour of cable?

    Should I go long or short?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
    I read that as 'freezing pensioners' which seemed a bit harsh!
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    And?

    Thanks to Covid the railways are already nationalised in all but name and the companies with least problems LNER is directly under government control.

    Nationalising them allows the railways to be restructured into say a sane logic..
  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20
    Presumably the tax changes announced by Kwarteng will have to be approved by parliament via a Finance Bill before they can come into effect. Depending upon events that vote might potentially be a point of high risk for Truss’s government. Does anyone know when that vote is scheduled to take place? There seems to be remarkably little speculation about the possibility of a rebellion by 38 hacked off Tories.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    edited September 26
    I'm not linking to the tweet as it appears to show the shooting itself, but:

    "Information appeared on the network that a military commissar was shot dead in the Ust-Ilim Military Commissariat (Irkutsk region)."

    I can see more of this happening. Russian recruitment offices have been firebombed since the start of the war; I'm unsurprised some are taking it further.

    Edit:
    "Map of arson of military registration and enlistment offices and administrations in Russia in two days"
    https://twitter.com/andischl/status/1573763665874092035
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,842
    edited September 26
    Before I go.

    Italy, likely FPTP final seat count (+/-1 on top 3):
    Right bloc: 121
    Left bloc; 12
    M5S: 10
    Sudtirol Volksparty: 2
    Aostans: 1
    Sud chiama Nord: 1

    245 proportional seats and 8 expatriate seats still to apportion.


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
    That is not going to happen
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    edited September 26
    Pro_Rata said:

    Before I go.

    Italy, likely FPTP final seat count (+/-1 on top 3):
    Right bloc: 120
    Left bloc; 12
    M5S: 10
    Sudtirol Volksparty: 2
    Aostans: 1
    Sud chiama Nord: 1

    245 proportional seats and 8 expatriate seats still to apportion.


    I assume the proportional seats will be much more to Left and M5S.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    edited September 26
    Meanwhile tropical storm Ian looks like it's transitioning to hurricane status this morning in extremely warm and deep waters South of Cuba, and will be barrelling up towards the Florida Gulf coast potentially as a category 3 or 4 in a couple of days' time.

    Politically interesting if it causes problems because DeSantis's response could influence the next GOP presidential primaries. So far he's doing the right things like mobilising the national guard and working constructively with the federal govt (though the latter might be seen as a handicap by MAGA types).
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    There would probably be a lot of support in the country if Labour added Electricty and Gas to the nationalisation list
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    And?

    Thanks to Covid the railways are already nationalised in all but name and the companies with least problems LNER is directly under government control.

    Nationalising them allows the railways to be restructured into say a sane logic..
    With the farce that has been Avanti here in North Wales I have no objection to nationalising the railways
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,967
    edited September 26

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    It is not really about interest rates now, but rather a fundamental collapse of confidence. I was in the gilt market in 1992 - Black Wedneday. Rates went 10%, 12%, 15%, 12% in just one day. Sterling will just have to find its own level. Action needs tobe political, and that is in the hands of Conservative MPs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    by Scott_xP · August 15 · Home› General
    The unstoppable force of the cost of living crisis is about to meet the immovable object of the inadequacy of Liz Truss. It's going to be spectacular.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,978

    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    There would probably be a lot of support in the country if Labour added Electricty and Gas to the nationalisation list
    They'd have to clear it with the IMF. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    Correction it was $1.12 before the mini budget. $1.15 was before the Bank chose to raise base rates by less than the Fed.

    So yes $1.12 to $1.08 is a 3.5% change but that sort of variance is quite standard not extraordinary, in 2008 there was a change from $2 to $1.40 so a 30% change. Comparable would be us going to roughly £1 = 80 cents now.
    Don't get ahead of yourself, £1 = 80 cents is next week.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    From an early rising American colleague - "Britain isn't a third world economy, but it sure did look like one this weekend".
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    +1 - all we do is an element of value added to the work we provide.. Which means exports really don't help things that much as we add say 20% to the value of a lump of metal...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    TimS said:

    I mentioned the silver lining for the tourist industry in the previous thread. More silver linings for the financial sector: UK asset valuations are looking tasty. Could be a bit of an M&A bonanza, particularly for UK infrastructure. Whether that's good news or bad really depends on whether you're a PE house or a member of the British public.

    And if rising interest rates lead to a house price crash then that's doubly excellent news for foreign investors looking to buy UK real estate.
  • Will Kami outlast Zahawi as CotE?
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
    Charles I expect will be more vocal in his audiences about his views on policy, whereas his mother tended to keep her personal views to herself. However he will still let Truss do what she wants to do, I expect he is already preparing for a Starmer premiership anyway. Truss will likely have the shortest premiership since Douglas Home
    If they carry on trashing Britain's economy and reputation like this, can we afford to leave them in office for 2 more years?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
    I read that as 'freezing pensioners' which seemed a bit harsh!
    Though sadly very likely in some instances this winter.
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,768

    FPT Nick Palmer: "Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?"

    I still have a lot of time for my MP, who has the right instincts - and needs to be in the mix to remedy the mistakes of the Liz Truss premiership. I would likely vote for him personally. But if those of the top of the Party were still acting in a way that I thought was not in the best interests of the country, I would be torn between voting for him and sitting on my hands.

    I know that you were pro-Brexit but do you see any connection to the current state of the party and its take over by the Brexiteers? Isn't this exactly the sort of government that the right-wing Tory Brexiteers were angling for all along? Singapore-on-Thames
  • Just a reminder I’m on holiday until a week on Saturday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    eek said:

    Possibly the greatest example of First world problems you will ever see

    https://twitter.com/TheSecondBag/status/1574313640643149824

    Replying to
    @faisalislam
    And the pain you feel on the UK is affecting all of us who retired elsewhere. The Eastern Caribbean dollar is dropping to parity and our bills and food costs are getting higher. We are suffering through exchange rate devaluation

    ...have you seen the price of avocados in Waitrose!?
    "Let them eat (scrumped) apples!"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Crisis, what crisis?
    Do Ju Ju on mountains have crisis?
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
    Charles I expect will be more vocal in his audiences about his views on policy, whereas his mother tended to keep her personal views to herself. However he will still let Truss do what she wants to do, I expect he is already preparing for a Starmer premiership anyway. Truss will likely have the shortest premiership since Douglas Home
    If they carry on trashing Britain's economy and reputation like this, can we afford to leave them in office for 2 more years?
    Frustrating as it is the only people who can do anything about it are conservative mps who would be voting themselves out of office
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    We import things, we add value and then export them again.

    The issue is that the value we add only represents X% of the final price...

    Any substitution would simply increase the added value a small bit and again doesn't really work as outside real top end premium products we still have a British Leyland type reputation for average products.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    On topic “looking a bit sick?”

    Really? You want the old “sick bet” sketch?

    This bet is no more! It has ceased to be! 'Shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible!! Sick? Or an ex bet?

    Actually, a rogue yougov or a Kantor may have been as likely than an Opinium Mike, presumably Opinium swingback runs out of former Tory don’t knows from the sample the more it uses them? yougov seems to capture volatility and excitement.

    You did though point out Truss DID GET an uptick from don’t knows returning, from other pollsters too, what no one anticipated I think is how Truss appears to have strengthened Labours polling at same time as her own party’s uptick.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Loads of key accounts are priced internationally or benchmarked internationally so the input costs will rise for services as well. At my company, for example, salaries are benchmarked globally so a weaker pound means we all get pay rises because the base is USD. Loads of tech companies do likewise and the whole TV/Movie industry is priced in dollars. Stuff that we export isn't necessarily going to benefit from sterling being in the toilet.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    Has there really been no comment on the biggest story of the last week - the Carlsen - Niemann scandal?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,273
    Barney said:

    Presumably the tax changes announced by Kwarteng will have to be approved by parliament via a Finance Bill before they can come into effect. Depending upon events that vote might potentially be a point of high risk for Truss’s government. Does anyone know when that vote is scheduled to take place? There seems to be remarkably little speculation about the possibility of a rebellion by 38 hacked off Tories.

    I'd love to be in the bar at the Tory conference next week!
    Perhaps I should take a trip to Birmingham in my Barnes Tory gear (blazer and red trousers). (Rapidly diminishing number of Tories in Barnes).
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,967
    edited September 26
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    We import things, we add value and then export them again.

    The issue is that the value we add only represents X% of the final price...

    Any substitution would simply increase the added value a small bit and again doesn't really work as outside real top end premium products we still have a British Leyland type reputation for average products.
    Of course, but adding more value domestically is how we close our current account deficit, grow our productivity and our GDP.

    Yes, it won't be easy, but unless you want to file it under "too hard to handle" what else do you suggest? We aren't suddenly going to become a major raw materials exporter again, but we ought to be able to add value.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited September 26
    MaxPB said:

    I'm actually still a bit shocked that the Friday budget actually happened. The currency and sovereign debt crisis we're going to face this week were entirely predictable, in fact many lowly analysts in these parts predicted exactly this market reaction when the scale and stupidity of the tax cuts were realised.

    I remember saying early in the summer that priority one for the incoming Rishi/Liz government was to win market credibility with targeted tax cuts for growth and spending cuts to balance the budget because we, as a nation, need to sell ~£250bn worth of new gilts over the next two years plus roll over another £150bn and the BoE won't be driving up gilt prices. In fact it's worse because now we need to sell £350bn in new gilts, roll over £150bn and the BoE is selling £80bn, so over two years we need markets to finance the UK economy to the tune of £580bn, it's an absolutely gigantic ask for a nation running a 5-6% current account deficit and no plan to reduce it and a a 7.5% current budget deficit and no plan to reduce it.

    The Liz/Kwasi government has done precisely the opposite and now we, as a nation, face financial ruin as the market calls time on lending at reasonable rates.

    Tongue in cheek suggestion: We should just take the £580bn from the existing £17tn wealth that exists in the country, via wealth and property taxes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Well, you can't actually eat Indian accounting services.

    And no, services are to a great extent not importable exportable or substitutable. If I want my hair cut or my appendix removed, or to be served in a restaurant, that (not something else) needs to happen here.
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    And?

    Thanks to Covid the railways are already nationalised in all but name and the companies with least problems LNER is directly under government control.

    Nationalising them allows the railways to be restructured into say a sane logic..
    With the farce that has been Avanti here in North Wales I have no objection to nationalising the railways
    Be careful what you wish for. A significant driver of the crises that have sunk operators like Avanti and Transpennine are the idiots in the DfT micromanaging badly things like driver numbers and route knowledge.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Just how badly have they fucked this up?

    Even Ian Blackford makes sense...

    The salient point is markets have lost trust in the Govt. The BoE are going to have to deal with the fallout in a crisis. Interest rate moves cannot always be left to a scheduled day. If you need to act, you must do so. One thing is for sure Parliament should be sitting right now https://twitter.com/peston/status/1574311793698152448
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    One of Liz Truss’ favourite economists, Julian Jessop,told the Spectator three weeks ago the markets would be “completely relaxed” about the Truss/Kwasi plan for massive tax cuts funded by borrowing https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1574324684044341249/photo/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited September 26

    eek said:

    Possibly the greatest example of First world problems you will ever see

    https://twitter.com/TheSecondBag/status/1574313640643149824

    Replying to
    @faisalislam
    And the pain you feel on the UK is affecting all of us who retired elsewhere. The Eastern Caribbean dollar is dropping to parity and our bills and food costs are getting higher. We are suffering through exchange rate devaluation

    ...have you seen the price of avocados in Waitrose!?
    They defrost okay after freezing. I tend to use them up in a few months though.
  • Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
    I read that as 'freezing pensioners' which seemed a bit harsh!
    Though sadly very likely in some instances this winter.
    We've all got to die sometime, as someone or other on here once said.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
    Charles I expect will be more vocal in his audiences about his views on policy, whereas his mother tended to keep her personal views to herself. However he will still let Truss do what she wants to do, I expect he is already preparing for a Starmer premiership anyway. Truss will likely have the shortest premiership since Douglas Home
    If they carry on trashing Britain's economy and reputation like this, can we afford to leave them in office for 2 more years?
    Frustrating as it is the only people who can do anything about it are conservative mps who would be voting themselves out of office
    If they leave Calamity Jane in office destroying the economy, then they will be out in large numbers. Or they accept the members imposed a lunatic, remove her, and install the guy they wanted who called all of this accurately. In which case they have a chance.

    Remember that I have talked up Sunak for a few years. He has proven to be absolutely right about Trussnomics, and had an alternative proposal with less red meat now but the promise of continuity of meat for the future. I don't like his politics but I respect his sanity and honesty.

    Come on Tories. She's mad. Get rid and put Rishi in.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Loads of key accounts are priced internationally or benchmarked internationally so the input costs will rise for services as well. At my company, for example, salaries are benchmarked globally so a weaker pound means we all get pay rises because the base is USD. Loads of tech companies do likewise and the whole TV/Movie industry is priced in dollars. Stuff that we export isn't necessarily going to benefit from sterling being in the toilet.
    And so if you get paid more, because you're paid in dollars, your pay goes up in Sterling, of which so long as you aren't dodging your taxes 42% of that windfall goes directly to the Exchequer in taxation. If you spend any of that extra money, then as well as boosting the economy on what you spend it on, the exchequer charges 20% VAT on that - etc etc

    There are knock on effects to what you're saying.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited September 26

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    And?

    Thanks to Covid the railways are already nationalised in all but name and the companies with least problems LNER is directly under government control.

    Nationalising them allows the railways to be restructured into say a sane logic..
    With the farce that has been Avanti here in North Wales I have no objection to nationalising the railways
    Be careful what you wish for. A significant driver of the crises that have sunk operators like Avanti and Transpennine are the idiots in the DfT micromanaging badly things like driver numbers and route knowledge.
    DfT aren't micromanaging driver numbers - Avanti have a combination of training issues due to Covid and a complete lack of incentive to train more (because they have to bear the upfront cost but won't be around to see the profits)...

    That issue comes down to the way franchises work - towards the end there is little incentive to organise things if you aren't the next operator it's better to pocket the money and leave the mess for others to work out...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 644

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    'Cultural and racial' issues which are caused or exacerbated by (and in some respects a historic contributor to) chronic economic inequality.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487

    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Up to now, the precedent has been that the worse it gets for the government, the longer they play it. No point calling an election that you are going to lose until you absolutely have to.

    Set against that, we could be on track for a zombie government led by a millenial cult who have two years and a seventy seat majority to play with. That couldn't be allowed to happen- could it?

    Immovable object, meet irresistible force.
    The Parliamentary Conservative Party is neither immovable nor irresistible, but rather deeply fractured, and could even split as the folly of KK´s "special financial operation" sinks in. However, in any event, the coming collapse of Gilts will make it impossible for the government to get their policies through, even if the Tories vote for it in the House of Commons, the markets will crush them. The collapse of the entire economic package could be only weeks or even days away. So, a government which has just seen its policies eviscerated by the bond market is unlikely to hold on to the Chancellor that devised that policy. Where would that leave Truss then? Most likely would be a government of Conservative unity, so she has to bring Sunak back in order to stay in office herself. Indeed, if she does not, then we are probably within 3 months of another Tory defenestration.

    Good thing we didn´t have that coalition of chaos eh?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    once again proving the rule as @raaleh often observes: if you cut off a Spectator article after the first paragraph, it will accurately summarize the situation at hand, as long as you don't read a single word that follows. https://twitter.com/totalkharnage/status/1574320486414258176 https://twitter.com/inthesedeserts/status/1574323246660476928/photo/1


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    I'm not linking to the tweet as it appears to show the shooting itself, but:

    "Information appeared on the network that a military commissar was shot dead in the Ust-Ilim Military Commissariat (Irkutsk region)."

    I can see more of this happening. Russian recruitment offices have been firebombed since the start of the war; I'm unsurprised some are taking it further.

    Edit:
    "Map of arson of military registration and enlistment offices and administrations in Russia in two days"
    https://twitter.com/andischl/status/1573763665874092035

    Still happy to smash the shit out of Ukraine. Just not using their kids to feed into the mincer.
This discussion has been closed.