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My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
    A bit spiteful, surely? Do you realise how little the state pension is and how poor anyone is who gives a fuck about the triple lock?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Speccie piece dated 31st August, 2022

    "There will be a run on sterling. The gilts market will be in freefall. And the FTSE will tumble as global investors take fright and sell off every form of British asset. It might take only a few days, or the government might stagger through until the end of September
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    One of Liz Truss’ favourite economists, Julian Jessop,told the Spectator three weeks ago the markets would be “completely relaxed” about the Truss/Kwasi plan for massive tax cuts funded by borrowing https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1574324684044341249/photo/1

    They will be completely relaxed. But only after they have sold all their £ assets for $.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    footage of one Tory MP seeing the market reaction to the mini-Budget https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1574326049688752129/photo/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Shadow Transport Minister to announce Labour would renationalise the railways if it wins the next general election

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1574314808635260931?s=20&t=tJ1w_WkXXAoZchkuu37xGQ

    Boris and Shapps have basically already gone a fair way down track on that? How many thicko Labour delegates will clap thinking it’s currently all privatised - like there’s no middle way to tap into vital private sector investment?
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
    That is not going to happen
    It depends on the scale of the disaster. We are approaching the moment where Britain recognises the fact that the days of Empire are not coming back, that we are a small country of the coast of our largest, semi-estranged market, the US will do nothing to save us, and we have total incompetents in charge.

    Those sunnily lit uplands look further away than ever
  • Truss down to 29 to be ousted this year. Was 41 (46 with boost) yesterday. This morning, her odds on being changed by the time of the next election have fallen from 3.75 to 3.25.

    But the question is one that will be answered by Conservative MPs alone.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Speccie piece dated 31st August, 2022

    "There will be a run on sterling. The gilts market will be in freefall. And the FTSE will tumble as global investors take fright and sell off every form of British asset. It might take only a few days, or the government might stagger through until the end of September

    Who wrote that one?
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
    That is not going to happen
    It depends on the scale of the disaster. We are approaching the moment where Britain recognises the fact that the days of Empire are not coming back, that we are a small country of the coast of our largest, semi-estranged market, the US will do nothing to save us, and we have total incompetents in charge.

    Those sunnily lit uplands look further away than ever
    You mean we didn't actually Take Back Control?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022
    OllyT said:

    FPT Nick Palmer: "Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?"

    I still have a lot of time for my MP, who has the right instincts - and needs to be in the mix to remedy the mistakes of the Liz Truss premiership. I would likely vote for him personally. But if those of the top of the Party were still acting in a way that I thought was not in the best interests of the country, I would be torn between voting for him and sitting on my hands.

    I know that you were pro-Brexit but do you see any connection to the current state of the party and its take over by the Brexiteers? Isn't this exactly the sort of government that the right-wing Tory Brexiteers were angling for all along? Singapore-on-Thames
    Indeed, as mentioned FPT -

    Crispin Odey :

    -Chief financial creator of Vote Leave

    -Former employer of Kwasi Kwarteng

    -One of several leading hedge-fund Tory donors, arguably the biggest single Tory funding source for almost two decades.

    -Backed Liz Truss, with other hedge-funders, and like the rest of the group quoted in the Times's report yesterday , has made a large amount - £145 million, actually - from shorting the pound in the last three days.



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    🚨🚨Tory MP + former minister: "Liz if f*cked... You cannot have monetary policy and fiscal policy at loggerheads. Something has to give."
    "They are already putting letters in as think she will crash the economy."

    https://twitter.com/AgnesChambre/status/1574324351150837760
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Cicero said:

    If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Up to now, the precedent has been that the worse it gets for the government, the longer they play it. No point calling an election that you are going to lose until you absolutely have to.

    Set against that, we could be on track for a zombie government led by a millenial cult who have two years and a seventy seat majority to play with. That couldn't be allowed to happen- could it?

    Immovable object, meet irresistible force.
    The Parliamentary Conservative Party is neither immovable nor irresistible, but rather deeply fractured, and could even split as the folly of KK´s "special financial operation" sinks in. However, in any event, the coming collapse of Gilts will make it impossible for the government to get their policies through, even if the Tories vote for it in the House of Commons, the markets will crush them. The collapse of the entire economic package could be only weeks or even days away. So, a government which has just seen its policies eviscerated by the bond market is unlikely to hold on to the Chancellor that devised that policy. Where would that leave Truss then? Most likely would be a government of Conservative unity, so she has to bring Sunak back in order to stay in office herself. Indeed, if she does not, then we are probably within 3 months of another Tory defenestration.

    Good thing we didn´t have that coalition of chaos eh?
    Who in their right mind would willing come and help Truss out of this mess of her own creation?

    Truss would need to go before saner Tory elements return....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850

    Pulpstar said:

    Speccie piece dated 31st August, 2022

    "There will be a run on sterling. The gilts market will be in freefall. And the FTSE will tumble as global investors take fright and sell off every form of British asset. It might take only a few days, or the government might stagger through until the end of September

    Who wrote that one?
    Matthew Lynn
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.
  • Mrs C, who has ever banged on about Empire except those seeking strawmen to attack?

    There's plenty of genuine nonsense to condemn without inventing more.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,708
    Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088

    Truss crammed her cabinet with loyalists. It was inevitable her entire approach to government would result in what we see before us.

    I cannot stand her. If anyone seeks to have a political career after this, they need to be on the backbenches or a junior minister

    I’d love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Truss looks extremely stubborn
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
    That is not going to happen
    It depends on the scale of the disaster. We are approaching the moment where Britain recognises the fact that the days of Empire are not coming back, that we are a small country of the coast of our largest, semi-estranged market, the US will do nothing to save us, and we have total incompetents in charge.

    Those sunnily lit uplands look further away than ever
    You mean we didn't actually Take Back Control?
    We gave the controls to Liz Truss.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:

    Speccie piece dated 31st August, 2022

    "There will be a run on sterling. The gilts market will be in freefall. And the FTSE will tumble as global investors take fright and sell off every form of British asset. It might take only a few days, or the government might stagger through until the end of September

    Who wrote that one?
    Matthew Lynn. But it goes on "at least that's what will happen if you believe Sunak lol what an arse."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    The PM @trussliz and Chancellor @KwasiKwarteng are trying to reposition the country. Turning around a tanker creates big waves! I would expect them to hold their nerve today.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1574325701158780929
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    Scott_xP said:

    by Scott_xP · August 15 · Home› General
    The unstoppable force of the cost of living crisis is about to meet the immovable object of the inadequacy of Liz Truss. It's going to be spectacular.

    You are now spamming us with… yourself?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,018

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    Roughly:
    GDP per capita (PPP) was 30% higher in the US in 1988
    40% higher in 2021
    Not that dramatic.
  • MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    Certainly consumers of imports will be hit financially.

    But consumers have been pandered to for a generation.

    Reality has to be faced.

    And reality says we cannot continually consume more wealth than we create.

    Now I'd prefer that any pain was assuaged with a wealth transfer from property ownership to the less fortunate.
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    Scott_xP said:

    The PM @trussliz and Chancellor @KwasiKwarteng are trying to reposition the country. Turning around a tanker creates big waves! I would expect them to hold their nerve today.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1574325701158780929

    Oakshott fires a warning shot over the government tankers bow
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    One senior Tory: "There’s a lot of support from free marketers but there are doubts that the government has the expertise to see it all through. Some consider Liz’s team to be lightweight and think No10 and No11 are showing signs of being drunk on power"

    https://www.ft.com/content/2a79c947-1f93-43a4-bd83-fdfc801d81aa
  • Scott_xP said:

    One senior Tory: "There’s a lot of support from free marketers but there are doubts that the government has the expertise to see it all through. Some consider Liz’s team to be lightweight and think No10 and No11 are showing signs of being drunk on power"

    https://www.ft.com/content/2a79c947-1f93-43a4-bd83-fdfc801d81aa

    I predicted weeks ago that Truss looked to me like someone who the power would go right to their head very quickly and we would be at late Thatcher levels within weeks.
  • If the £ hits $1 (or lower) then it is all over for this administration. What are the current odds on a 2023 General Election? I might put £10 on....

    Certainly the conservative party would be in chaos but unless they support a vonc in themselves then the GE will be in 2024 and most likely October of that year
    .
    There is no other mechanism to bring about an earlier GE
    Actually, there is one other mechanism but it has never been used before. It depends on how disgusted or worried HMK is.
    That is not going to happen
    It depends on the scale of the disaster. We are approaching the moment where Britain recognises the fact that the days of Empire are not coming back, that we are a small country of the coast of our largest, semi-estranged market, the US will do nothing to save us, and we have total incompetents in charge.

    Those sunnily lit uplands look further away than ever
    You mean we didn't actually Take Back Control?
    We gave the controls to Liz Truss.
    Not really. Truss may think she has the controls, in much the same way that my daughter thought that her "my first steering wheel" was allowing her to control Mummy and Daddy's car.

    The real control is where it's always been. In the financial markets and laws of arithmetic.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,943
    Pulpstar said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Before I go.

    Italy, likely FPTP final seat count (+/-1 on top 3):
    Right bloc: 120
    Left bloc; 12
    M5S: 10
    Sudtirol Volksparty: 2
    Aostans: 1
    Sud chiama Nord: 1

    245 proportional seats and 8 expatriate seats still to apportion.


    I assume the proportional seats will be much more to Left and M5S.
    Indeed, although the proportional count (if not the vote) is totally separate and purposefully doesn't seek to rebalance the
    FPTP in any way (contrast Scotland and Germany).
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    Certainly consumers of imports will be hit financially.

    But consumers have been pandered to for a generation.

    Reality has to be faced.

    And reality says we cannot continually consume more wealth than we create.

    Now I'd prefer that any pain was assuaged with a wealth transfer from property ownership to the less fortunate.
    That's like saying breathers of oxygen will be hit financially.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,150
    edited September 2022
    kamski said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    Roughly:
    GDP per capita (PPP) was 30% higher in the US in 1988
    40% higher in 2021
    Not that dramatic.
    An increase from 30% higher to 40% higher is fairly significant, and puts the US at a record high versus the UK.

    But you omitted the fact that the US population has grown considerably faster in the same time too, which compounds the per capita increase in the US.

    The idea that the UK is weaker relative to the US than it was in the past is not speculation, its a simple matter of fact. Smaller population growth, with members of the population contributing less per capita too - unless we start growing faster than the US in either per capita or population growth if not both, the trend is only going to continue going one way.

    Reaching parity with the dollar is a question of "when" not "if".
  • Returning to an old PB favourite I see that far from there being no strawberries in the shops this year the country was overflowing with them:

    The UK heatwave has produced a glut in strawberry, cherry and blueberry harvests prompting a wave of discounts in stores and lower prices for British farmers.

    Strawberry farmers said they were picking as much as 30% more fruit than usual, and blueberry growers at least 50% more this week as temperatures topped 40C on Tuesday in some parts of England. Yields are expected to be double that of the same week last year in the week ahead. Blackberry harvests are expected to be up 80% on the same time last year this week according to the British Berry Growers association.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/prices-fall-as-uk-heatwave-produces-glut-of-soft-fruit

    Perhaps someone can explain how all this extra soft fruit was picked when in previous years we have been told that the smaller harvests were supposedly 'rotting in the fields' ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688
  • Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088

    Truss crammed her cabinet with loyalists. It was inevitable her entire approach to government would result in what we see before us.

    I cannot stand her. If anyone seeks to have a political career after this, they need to be on the backbenches or a junior minister

    I’d love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Truss looks extremely stubborn
    I suspect tanking the £ is being seen as a badge of honour in her Downing Street. "Look what we can do now we are in charge. What else can we break?"
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
    The bond markets haven't gone ape. They might yet, but bonds are still selling well below inflation.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088

    Truss crammed her cabinet with loyalists. It was inevitable her entire approach to government would result in what we see before us.

    I cannot stand her. If anyone seeks to have a political career after this, they need to be on the backbenches or a junior minister

    I’d love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Truss looks extremely stubborn
    Cramming loyalists around yourself is a weakness insecure thing. The strength of Thatcher was she used the party’s Grannt Shapps because she was strong. Her strength was her strength. My Dad told me she even had a man called Biffur who was anti nuclear weapons in cabinet.

    How loyalist are Badenoch and Bravermans though? You can imagine them beating Truss up and running rings round her if they arnt loyal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Futures markets pricing in a whopping 1.5% point rise in UK base rates by November, touching 6% next year.

    British corporate bond yields shooting up, making it more expensive to raise money for eg top UK retailers now 11ish%

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574328851236282368
  • Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Why do you now copy and paste quote tweets from random people? You make it look as though Ed Conway said that, instead of this account:

    https://twitter.com/jamiesont/status/1574327224198922240
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    Certainly consumers of imports will be hit financially.

    But consumers have been pandered to for a generation.

    Reality has to be faced.

    And reality says we cannot continually consume more wealth than we create.

    Now I'd prefer that any pain was assuaged with a wealth transfer from property ownership to the less fortunate.
    That's like saying breathers of oxygen will be hit financially.
    No, its simply stating reality.

    The reality that we cannot continually consume more wealth than we create.

    Now for those bewailing the sterling exchange rate there are things that they can do:

    1) Create more wealth
    2) Improve your productivity
    3) Live within your means
    4) Increase your savings ratio

    But all of those involve some hard work or self discipline or self improvement.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    I doubt he is laughing but certainly feeling vindicated
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,778
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Whar about the real increasing possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, then ?
    If that happens, it should be dealt with. Freezing pensions and abolishing the triple lock would be a good starting point for me.

    File under never going to happen.
    A bit spiteful, surely? Do you realise how little the state pension is and how poor anyone is who gives a fuck about the triple lock?
    State pension should work like other benefits - uprate with inflation + means testing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Returning to an old PB favourite I see that far from there being no strawberries in the shops this year the country was overflowing with them:

    The UK heatwave has produced a glut in strawberry, cherry and blueberry harvests prompting a wave of discounts in stores and lower prices for British farmers.

    Strawberry farmers said they were picking as much as 30% more fruit than usual, and blueberry growers at least 50% more this week as temperatures topped 40C on Tuesday in some parts of England. Yields are expected to be double that of the same week last year in the week ahead. Blackberry harvests are expected to be up 80% on the same time last year this week according to the British Berry Growers association.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/prices-fall-as-uk-heatwave-produces-glut-of-soft-fruit

    Perhaps someone can explain how all this extra soft fruit was picked when in previous years we have been told that the smaller harvests were supposedly 'rotting in the fields' ?

    T5 visa scheme beefed up.

    All very topical.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    Futures markets pricing in a whopping 1.5% point rise in UK base rates by November, touching 6% next year.

    British corporate bond yields shooting up, making it more expensive to raise money for eg top UK retailers now 11ish%

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574328851236282368

    6 % interest rates is enough to wipe out many families with a mortgage...this is why house prices shouldnt be allowed to get out of control
  • Returning to an old PB favourite I see that far from there being no strawberries in the shops this year the country was overflowing with them:

    The UK heatwave has produced a glut in strawberry, cherry and blueberry harvests prompting a wave of discounts in stores and lower prices for British farmers.

    Strawberry farmers said they were picking as much as 30% more fruit than usual, and blueberry growers at least 50% more this week as temperatures topped 40C on Tuesday in some parts of England. Yields are expected to be double that of the same week last year in the week ahead. Blackberry harvests are expected to be up 80% on the same time last year this week according to the British Berry Growers association.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/22/prices-fall-as-uk-heatwave-produces-glut-of-soft-fruit

    Perhaps someone can explain how all this extra soft fruit was picked when in previous years we have been told that the smaller harvests were supposedly 'rotting in the fields' ?

    My tomatoes had an excellent year, as did my hops (which sadly I can't find anyone to brew with, so they will indeed be rotting in the fields, or the back yard anyway).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
    The bond markets haven't gone ape. They might yet, but bonds are still selling well below inflation.
    Question. What we have basically done is cut income to pay bills by borrowing instead, what’s happening is investors are saying “hmmmm you look like a risky investment now.”

    What should Kwarzi be saying into microphones today to reply - no, investing in us not a risk at all, because…
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    Morning all; a bit late this morning, due to having slept off my Covid and flu vaccinations on Saturday. Absolutely shattered yesterday.

    I've got an XE app on my phone, and for some bizarre reason I am watching the exchange rate. Pound has shifted this morning from 1.079 to 1.077 against the dollar, and looks as though it's sliding further.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    kamski said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    Roughly:
    GDP per capita (PPP) was 30% higher in the US in 1988
    40% higher in 2021
    Not that dramatic.
    An increase from 30% higher to 40% higher is fairly significant, and puts the US at a record high versus the UK.

    But you omitted the fact that the US population has grown considerably faster in the same time too, which compounds the per capita increase in the US.

    The idea that the UK is weaker relative to the US than it was in the past is not speculation, its a simple matter of fact. Smaller population growth, with members of the population contributing less per capita too - unless we start growing faster than the US in either per capita or population growth if not both, the trend is only going to continue going one way.

    Reaching parity with the dollar is a question of "when" not "if".
    With these exchange rates the usa is not a realistic holiday destination for a huge proportion of uk families
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The dollar exchange rate more than halved between 1980 and 1985, but that was the same period when our relative decline went into reverse. You shouldn't treat the value of the currency as a virility symbol for the economy as a whole.
    At that time the national debt was sub-50% of GDP and falling.
  • Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
    The bond markets haven't gone ape. They might yet, but bonds are still selling well below inflation.
    Question. What we have basically done is cut income to pay bills by borrowing instead, what’s happening is investors are saying “hmmmm you look like a risky investment now.”

    What should Kwarzi be saying into microphones today to reply - no, investing in us not a risk at all, because…
    Kwarzi said what he had to say last Friday.

    He shouldn't be panicking and responding to market variances, panic will instil more panic.

    He should keep calm and carry on.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Services. 😇
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    kamski said:

    Has there really been no comment on the biggest story of the last week - the Carlsen - Niemann scandal?

    Chess is above our paygrade. We're more of a bar billiards sort of forum.
  • FPT Nick Palmer: "Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?"

    I still have a lot of time for my MP, who has the right instincts - and needs to be in the mix to remedy the mistakes of the Liz Truss premiership. I would likely vote for him personally. But if those of the top of the Party were still acting in a way that I thought was not in the best interests of the country, I would be torn between voting for him and sitting on my hands.

    Don't give up, MM. The Conservative Party, and the Country, needs supporters like you.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Usa has big economic problems too...its debt to gdp is 126% and it relies on the us dollar as a reserve currency...if that changes all bets are off...it also has remarkable poverty in many areas
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    edited September 2022

    Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    He also predicted the bond markets would go ape iirc?
    The bond markets haven't gone ape. They might yet, but bonds are still selling well below inflation.
    Where exactly are you seeing that because what I'm looking at is very different and reflects what is being said here
    Scott_xP said:

    Futures markets pricing in a whopping 1.5% point rise in UK base rates by November, touching 6% next year.

    British corporate bond yields shooting up, making it more expensive to raise money for eg top UK retailers now 11ish%

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574328851236282368

    I should add it's the market's expectation that rates rise 1.5% by November that is keeping things at 1.07 . As soon as anyone important even hints that isn't the case things will get awkward...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Kwasi "Petrol on the inflation flames" nomics
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Services. 😇
    Do you have your hair cut by someone in New York? Does your hairdresser cut hair in London and also in Tokyo?
  • Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Services. 😇
    Do you have your hair cut by someone in New York? Does your hairdresser cut hair in London and also in Tokyo?
    Do you think services in the 21st century are limited to hairdressers and restaurants?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623

    kamski said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever.

    I've made this point repeatedly before, in the 80s Thatcher famously said about the EEC Single Market that it would be a market "bigger than the United States" which was true at that time. The EEC was much bigger than the United States.

    However since then, the US has gone from strength to strength, while Europe has floundered and hit the rocks.

    The EU (even post expansion) and the UK combined are nowhere near as strong as the US.

    To be honest, its a surprise the USD hasn't appreciated even more than it has, and the fact that Sterling has been overvalued for years relative to the USD is part of why we have such a massive and systemic current account deficit.

    In 1988 when Thatcher made that famous speech the US GDP per capita was $5.236 trillion versus $0.91 trillion for the UK so 5.75 to 1 in size.

    Its now $21 trillion versus $2.7 trillion for the UK so 7.78 to 1 in size.

    The US has its own problems, don't get me wrong, but they are cultural and racial far more than economic.
    Roughly:
    GDP per capita (PPP) was 30% higher in the US in 1988
    40% higher in 2021
    Not that dramatic.
    An increase from 30% higher to 40% higher is fairly significant, and puts the US at a record high versus the UK.

    But you omitted the fact that the US population has grown considerably faster in the same time too, which compounds the per capita increase in the US.

    The idea that the UK is weaker relative to the US than it was in the past is not speculation, its a simple matter of fact. Smaller population growth, with members of the population contributing less per capita too - unless we start growing faster than the US in either per capita or population growth if not both, the trend is only going to continue going one way.

    Reaching parity with the dollar is a question of "when" not "if".
    I thought the whole purpose of Brexit was to cut our population or were they just the wrong sort of population?
  • Faisal:

    British corporate bond yields shooting up, making it more expensive to raise money for eg top UK retailers now 11ish%
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    This is amazing.

    First Darren Grimes apprars to have been fired by GBNews, but no one in HR told him...

    Then Grimes denies it on Twitter...

    Then he deletes his tweet history...

    Finally, he deletes his bio, and all photos linked to GBNews, adding that he'll provide an update
    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574171623497818112/photo/1
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    edited September 2022
    Lots of "It'll be good for exporters" from the hardest brexit advocates now lol.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    Barnesian said:

    Barney said:

    Presumably the tax changes announced by Kwarteng will have to be approved by parliament via a Finance Bill before they can come into effect. Depending upon events that vote might potentially be a point of high risk for Truss’s government. Does anyone know when that vote is scheduled to take place? There seems to be remarkably little speculation about the possibility of a rebellion by 38 hacked off Tories.

    I'd love to be in the bar at the Tory conference next week!
    Perhaps I should take a trip to Birmingham in my Barnes Tory gear (blazer and red trousers). (Rapidly diminishing number of Tories in Barnes).
    The Sunak side of the argument won’t bother going to conference - it will just be Truss and a cheer team - probably hazing, pizza dare. Kwarteng knocking on the door and saying, it’s the plumber, Liz answering, plumber, I didn’t ask for a plumber - and everybody in sleepover nightwear, like a Grease cosplay, giggling.

    If you are expecting anything more serious than that from next weeks conference, you will probably find I’m closer to the truth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077

    Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088

    Truss crammed her cabinet with loyalists. It was inevitable her entire approach to government would result in what we see before us.

    I cannot stand her. If anyone seeks to have a political career after this, they need to be on the backbenches or a junior minister

    I’d love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Truss looks extremely stubborn
    Cramming loyalists around yourself is a weakness insecure thing. The strength of Thatcher was she used the party’s Grannt Shapps because she was strong. Her strength was her strength. My Dad told me she even had a man called Biffur who was anti nuclear weapons in cabinet.

    How loyalist are Badenoch and Bravermans though? You can imagine them beating Truss up and running rings round her if they arnt loyal.
    Badenoch and Braverman are positioning themselves to be Leader of the Opposition if Truss loses the next general election
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lots of "It'll be good for exporters" from the hardest brexit advocates now lol.

    Exports to where?

    We've locked ourselves pretty much out of the world's biggest market.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Assuming markets are intelligent (and to some extent there are the consolidated intelligence of the world so it's arguable).

    The appropriate rate for cable last week was $1.15 to £.

    The appropriate rate today is somewhere between $1.08 and $1.03

    So even using your own argument it doesn't make any sense - the "mini budget" has changed the appropriate rate into 1 that is 6-10% lower than it was last week...
    So ???

    The stated strategy is to boost growth and a more competitive exchange rate helps that.

    Now the strategy can be criticised as can the individual tax changes but Britain is now in a better position to get foreign investment and foreign tourists while boosting exports and import substitution.
    Not in an economy like the UK where we are net importers of key materials with no chance of domestic substitution.
    So the UK in the 21st century neither exports, nor imports, nor can substitute services?

    There's more to the economy than materials.
    Services. 😇
    Do you have your hair cut by someone in New York? Does your hairdresser cut hair in London and also in Tokyo?
    Do you think services in the 21st century are limited to hairdressers and restaurants?
    Nope. But high end ones like law and accounting are also localised.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    At this level we could start to see 60%+ of businesses have their debt interest payments reach 40%+ of their income - suggesting many may struggle to make repayments. It differs across sectors, but real estate in particular exposed (2/4) https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2021/how-sensitive-is-uk-corporate-debt-to-increases-in-debt-servicing-costs-or-earnings-shocks https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1574315764600999939/photo/1
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
    Nobody who keeps paying their mortgage loses their home in house price crashes. Anyone who does can just ride out to the other side and still have a home.

    The people who lose out are those with multiple homes as "investments". Fuck them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278

    Morning all; a bit late this morning, due to having slept off my Covid and flu vaccinations on Saturday. Absolutely shattered yesterday.

    I've got an XE app on my phone, and for some bizarre reason I am watching the exchange rate. Pound has shifted this morning from 1.079 to 1.077 against the dollar, and looks as though it's sliding further.

    1.073 now!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,735
    Just trying to unpick the Italian election. The BBC is consistently describing the lead party as 'Far Right'. Can anyone help with what it is that they will actually plan to do which would qualify for that label?

    The best the BBC can do is this:


    Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain's far-right Vox party: "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!"


    All of which sounds like populist traditional conservatism to me. I don't think Hitler would be impressed.

    So, what is the 'far right' bit?
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is amazing.

    First Darren Grimes apprars to have been fired by GBNews, but no one in HR told him...

    Then Grimes denies it on Twitter...

    Then he deletes his tweet history...

    Finally, he deletes his bio, and all photos linked to GBNews, adding that he'll provide an update
    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574171623497818112/photo/1

    Blimey. What do you have to do to get fired from GB News?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Barnesian said:

    Barney said:

    Presumably the tax changes announced by Kwarteng will have to be approved by parliament via a Finance Bill before they can come into effect. Depending upon events that vote might potentially be a point of high risk for Truss’s government. Does anyone know when that vote is scheduled to take place? There seems to be remarkably little speculation about the possibility of a rebellion by 38 hacked off Tories.

    I'd love to be in the bar at the Tory conference next week!
    Perhaps I should take a trip to Birmingham in my Barnes Tory gear (blazer and red trousers). (Rapidly diminishing number of Tories in Barnes).
    The Sunak side of the argument won’t bother going to conference - it will just be Truss and a cheer team - probably hazing, pizza dare. Kwarteng knocking on the door and saying, it’s the plumber, Liz answering, plumber, I didn’t ask for a plumber - and everybody in sleepover nightwear, like a Grease cosplay, giggling.

    If you are expecting anything more serious than that from next weeks conference, you will probably find I’m closer to the truth.
    Brum coke dealers stocking up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    Time for a government of national unity.

    What better show for the Commonwealth than King Charles III sacking Liz Truss and appointing a Canadian as part of the new government?

    I reckon he would outlast Bonar Law.
    The weekly audience between HMK and Truss could be interesting. His sneering disdain at the crap they made him read in the last Queens speech demonstrated how little regard he has for them.

    So Truss comes to see His Majesty. He queries the calamity going on in the markets. She dismisses them, he says "no, hang on, you can't just ignore this"

    House of Cards fans may recall To Play The King. New King enters almost immediate constitutional crisis by clashing with a government doing egregious stupid...
    Charles I expect will be more vocal in his audiences about his views on policy, whereas his mother tended to keep her personal views to herself. However he will still let Truss do what she wants to do, I expect he is already preparing for a Starmer premiership anyway. Truss will likely have the shortest premiership since Douglas Home
    If they carry on trashing Britain's economy and reputation like this, can we afford to leave them in office for 2 more years?
    Frustrating as it is the only people who can do anything about it are conservative mps who would be voting themselves out of office
    If they leave Calamity Jane in office destroying the economy, then they will be out in large numbers. Or they accept the members imposed a lunatic, remove her, and install the guy they wanted who called all of this accurately. In which case they have a chance.

    Remember that I have talked up Sunak for a few years. He has proven to be absolutely right about Trussnomics, and had an alternative proposal with less red meat now but the promise of continuity of meat for the future. I don't like his politics but I respect his sanity and honesty.

    Come on Tories. She's mad. Get rid and put Rishi in.
    No chance of Sunak coming back now.

    If Truss goes now it would likely be Wallace replacing her by coronation, a la Michael Howard after IDS was removed
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897

    Mrs C, who has ever banged on about Empire except those seeking strawmen to attack?

    There's plenty of genuine nonsense to condemn without inventing more.

    It's not banged on about - because people don't like to admit it - but the hankering for bygone days of power and glory is stubbornly present in many. And it was, without a shadow of a shadow of a doubt, a strong factor in Brexit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    IshmaelZ said:

    Brum coke dealers stocking up.

    And their prices are rising by the hour...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,997

    Good morning, been on holiday in Greece for a week, come back and the countries turned even more to s***.

    Honestly, that mini-budget on Friday was worse for what it didn't talk about over what it did.

    The evidence is conclusive.
    PBers ought not to be allowed to take holidays.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,758
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨Tory MP + former minister: "Liz if f*cked... You cannot have monetary policy and fiscal policy at loggerheads. Something has to give."
    "They are already putting letters in as think she will crash the economy."

    https://twitter.com/AgnesChambre/status/1574324351150837760

    LOL. She is speedrunning Johnson's premiership if we are already at the Letters to Brady Stage.

    Looks like she got her tits done for nothing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    This is amazing.

    First Darren Grimes apprars to have been fired by GBNews, but no one in HR told him...

    Then Grimes denies it on Twitter...

    Then he deletes his tweet history...

    Finally, he deletes his bio, and all photos linked to GBNews, adding that he'll provide an update
    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574171623497818112/photo/1

    Blimey. What do you have to do to get fired from GB News?
    Actually they are pretty brutal. Every few months they fire a load of presenters and "reboot", even the "professional" non-nutters like Colin Brazier have been given their P45s.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lots of "It'll be good for exporters" from the hardest brexit advocates now lol.

    Exports to where?

    We've locked ourselves pretty much out of the world's biggest market.
    What a silly comment. We have preferential access beyond all but a handful of countries that follow EU law with no say.
  • Morning all; a bit late this morning, due to having slept off my Covid and flu vaccinations on Saturday. Absolutely shattered yesterday.

    I've got an XE app on my phone, and for some bizarre reason I am watching the exchange rate. Pound has shifted this morning from 1.079 to 1.077 against the dollar, and looks as though it's sliding further.

    1.073 now!
    It was 1.040 early this morning
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lots of "It'll be good for exporters" from the hardest brexit advocates now lol.

    Devaluation only boosts exports by making people poorer. Capital and raw materials are priced in dollars, the only thing priced in pounds is wages, so when your currency goes down you become more competitive because your workers become cheaper, ie poorer. People didn't vote for Brexit in order to become poorer.
  • Duncan Weldon
    @DuncanWeldon
    ·
    3m
    Something has to give. Either the Bank hikes to “destroy the economy” level or Sterling is taking a dive.
    Neither is good.

    The Federal Reserve is hiking rates by 75 basis points a go, while the Bank of England isn't. As long as the Fed continue to do that, Sterling is taking a dive relatively.

    Versus the Euro, in October last year £1 = €1.11, going into October this year £1 = €1.11, a net Sterling fall of €0.00
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    Has ever a political economy prediction come true so quickly?

    Sunak must be laughing his face off this morning.

    A 3.5% change in the cable is not an economic prediction coming true.

    If the bank starts raising rates as fast as the Fed is, that would help stabilise Sterling if you're worried about that. When the Bank is raising rates much slower than the Fed, cable is only going one way.
    You're sounding a bit like the supporters of Jezza post the largest Lab defeat for decades. Well he did get a lot of votes...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,025
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Historians will note that the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar was a signal to short the pound. It was a sign of weakness not strength, an unwillingness to listen to independent advice and a foretaste of what was to come. Plenty of leadership lessons here
    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1574314545526489088

    Truss crammed her cabinet with loyalists. It was inevitable her entire approach to government would result in what we see before us.

    I cannot stand her. If anyone seeks to have a political career after this, they need to be on the backbenches or a junior minister

    I’d love to know what is going on behind the scenes. Truss looks extremely stubborn
    Cramming loyalists around yourself is a weakness insecure thing. The strength of Thatcher was she used the party’s Grannt Shapps because she was strong. Her strength was her strength. My Dad told me she even had a man called Biffur who was anti nuclear weapons in cabinet.

    How loyalist are Badenoch and Bravermans though? You can imagine them beating Truss up and running rings round her if they arnt loyal.
    Badenoch and Braverman are positioning themselves to be Leader of the Opposition if Truss loses the next general election
    Is Gove still Badenochs Svengali? Late in the day he came out for Sunak saying cutting words against Truss economic plan. If Badenoch adopts that position it makes her a no brainier to put our money on.

    I guess this is a betting post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,077
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want Osborne and Carney back 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

    I suspect Andrew Bailey is pulling his hair out. I don't think the BoE mandate as currently exists gives him the ability to do anything and Kamikaze seems happy to let his mates make billions from the run on the pound - so he isn't going to do anything...
    He came across chancers like this (See Lendy, Blackmore, London Capital) during his time as FCA head and did sweet FA about it all.
    oh that's equally possible - the fact I was pointing out is that I don't think Bailey can do anything about the current situation.

    And the Chancellor is clearly happy for this disaster to occur for reasons.....
    What disaster?

    The change in cable this year is considerably less than it was in eg 2008, even with the flight to dollar and the Fed being far more aggressive with rate rises than the BoE.

    A floating currency floating to appropriate rates isn't a disaster.
    Broadly speaking, unless distorted by temporary effects (such as a flight to safety during a time of war) the strength of a currency reflects the strength of the economy. In that sense the exchange rate is a diagnostic one can use to measure the strength of the economy.

    The pound had now reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar. This suggests that the British economy is at its weakest relative to the US economy ever. That's not a good outcome.
    The dollar exchange rate more than halved between 1980 and 1985, but that was the same period when our relative decline went into reverse. You shouldn't treat the value of the currency as a virility symbol for the economy as a whole.
    It is not a confidence booster but yes a low £ relative to the dollar only really hits those who import a lot of goods and supplies from the US or UK tourists to the US.

    Exporters to the US actually benefit from a stronger dollar and weaker pound as would
    the UK tourist industry in terms of attracting more US visitors
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is amazing.

    First Darren Grimes apprars to have been fired by GBNews, but no one in HR told him...

    Then Grimes denies it on Twitter...

    Then he deletes his tweet history...

    Finally, he deletes his bio, and all photos linked to GBNews, adding that he'll provide an update
    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574171623497818112/photo/1

    'crafty' from HR
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Brum coke dealers stocking up.

    And their prices are rising by the hour...
    No, Bart says they can substitute. Table salt, baby powder...
  • Morning all; a bit late this morning, due to having slept off my Covid and flu vaccinations on Saturday. Absolutely shattered yesterday.

    I've got an XE app on my phone, and for some bizarre reason I am watching the exchange rate. Pound has shifted this morning from 1.079 to 1.077 against the dollar, and looks as though it's sliding further.

    1.073 now!
    It was 1.040 early this morning
    At this rate of appreciation sterling will be worth two dollars tomorrow. Rejoice at the Tory economic miracle!
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Market now expecting 7% interest rates. Fuck! Mortgages skyrocketing. How long will Tory backbenchers sit back & let this economic *experiment* last??? https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1574315522048626688

    Conway doesn't say that, who are you actually quoting?

    Hopefully a house price crash happens soon. Long overdue. :)
    Again, spiteful as fuck. People lose homes in house price crashes.
    Nobody who keeps paying their mortgage loses their home in house price crashes. Anyone who does can just ride out to the other side and still have a home.

    The people who lose out are those with multiple homes as "investments". Fuck them.
    Jesus, Bart. Yes, and people with one home, which they live in, and a mortgage who stop paying the mortgage because they cannot afford it, lose the home. Normal, non wealthy, perfectly nice people with, often, small children.
    And that's a shame for them. And they'll end up in the same position as millions today who want a home, but can't afford one because prices have been driven up by people using real estate as "investments", which you are totally spiteful about.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    The market implied odds of sterling falling to dollar parity at some point this year are up to 60% https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/probability-of-pound-sliding-to-parity-this-year-jumps-to-60?srnd=premium&sref=vuYGislZ
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is amazing.

    First Darren Grimes apprars to have been fired by GBNews, but no one in HR told him...

    Then Grimes denies it on Twitter...

    Then he deletes his tweet history...

    Finally, he deletes his bio, and all photos linked to GBNews, adding that he'll provide an update
    https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1574171623497818112/photo/1

    Never thought GBeebies would fire Mr Tumble. Amazing times.
  • Nigelb said:

    Good morning, been on holiday in Greece for a week, come back and the countries turned even more to s***.

    Honestly, that mini-budget on Friday was worse for what it didn't talk about over what it did.

    The evidence is conclusive.
    PBers ought not to be allowed to take holidays.
    Given the recent moves on the Forex markets, holidays abroad may soon be ruled out anyway.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623

    Scott_xP said:

    by Scott_xP · August 15 · Home› General
    The unstoppable force of the cost of living crisis is about to meet the immovable object of the inadequacy of Liz Truss. It's going to be spectacular.

    You are now spamming us with… yourself?
    Just showing he's clairvoyant
This discussion has been closed.