Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com

15678911»

Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164

    Turns out the real world doesn’t behave in the way that dodgy, anonymously funded, right-wing think tanks, The Spectator and Telegraph think it should.

    Right wing "free market" think tanks have the same connection to the reality or markets as Socialist Workers do to work...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    Incidentally, we may have missed this:

    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1574165228828463107?s=20&t=ADOHIkHO8zyOPNiZ_FHEyg

    BREAKING: Documents seized by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago may also incriminate Donald Trump in the New York fraud case, as AG James indicates Trump hid subpoenaed docs at Mar-a-Lago...Page 198 of AG James complaint indicates docs seized at Mar-a-Lago include . . . “correspondence related to taxes, and accounting information,” and even though they were “responsive to OAG’s subpoenas,” “no such documents were produced” by Trump.

    If that's true it would explain why his reaction was so panicky.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    edited September 2022
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Rather than putting labels first, put actual policies and actual actions and legislation first; then decide where they fit.

    From the history of the Labour party you could call them 'socialist' or even 'hard socialist'. But that would be wrong about how they are on the whole now. Same with this lot. Wait and see what they actually do. Ignore completely what they and their enemies say.
    How about the "Hard Right Origins & Rhetoric but Let's See What They Actually Do Now They're In Power in Coalition with Others" BROTHERS OF ITALY party?

    Bit of a mouthful but hey.
    Good idea. It's a bit like wondering whether, in accordance with their historical roots, the next Labour government will nationalise the banks and all the other commanding heights of the nation's economy.
    Well not really. The "far left" policies and rhetoric has gone under Starmer. Not a trace. Nobody in their right mind expects it from Labour now. But under Corbyn? - ok, that would have been a not totally unfair comparison.

    TBH I really don't know why you're bugged about the 'far right' label for Meloni and her Brothers Of Italy. Given the origins, the rhetoric, the associations, it's reasonable to describe them as far right unless and until they show otherwise.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022

    Turns out the real world doesn’t behave in the way that dodgy, anonymously funded, right-wing think tanks, The Spectator and Telegraph think it should.

    ..but it does sometimes turn out the way Tory hedge fund donors think it does ..hence their constant investments in Truss and Brexit.

  • Turns out the real world doesn’t behave in the way that dodgy, anonymously funded, right-wing think tanks, The Spectator and Telegraph think it should.

    Then these blockers are Enemies of the People. When people voted to give Liz Truss and her plan to hand their money to Tory donors in December 2019 it was a vote to Take Back Control of Britain's future from these faceless people. How dare these markets disagree with what the people of Bolsover voted for?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,977

    I'd almost think Bailey is doing this on purpose now, he couldn't be any weaker if he tried.

    Last week he lets expectations run wild that base rates will go up by 75 points, in line with the Fed, then only increases them by 50 points. Then today's a press release that the Bank would be making a statement, only to issue such a weak statement via press release that basically says "the Bank will do its job" and nothing else.

    What's the point of saying you'll be making a statement, if you have no statement to actually make. Very weak.

    No respect for Bailey at all.

    Well what's the point in Bailey raising interest rates if Kwartang comes back and says, "I'll raise you a 10% cut on VAT"?
    Well they have separate jobs, don't they?

    The US Dollar is appreciating strongly because the Federal Reserve have been quite aggressive on rate rises, even as the Federal Government has a deficit with numbers so eyewatering it looks like the UK is running a budget surplus in comparison.
    I have pointed out that what the BoE and the CoE are doing is counter intuitive.

    You have replied by saying "look squirrel!"
    No, I'm saying if the BoE did its own job competently, then that would be good regardless of what the CoE does. Biden and Congress are spending like its going out of fashion, but the Federal Reserve are doing their job. The Bank of England are frankly asleep at the wheel.
    But the CoE is immediately undoing any remedial action from the BoE.

    Wood from trees Bart, wood from trees!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Capital Economics on the HMT/BoE statements:
    “Govt and BoE do the bare minimum, markets may yet force the issue”
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574428410797080579/photo/1
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    edited September 2022
    Labour 44% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield. Starmer ahead 38 34 best PM

    Post budget
  • Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    If you falling against the yen, then things are dire.
  • algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Rather than putting labels first, put actual policies and actual actions and legislation first; then decide where they fit.

    From the history of the Labour party you could call them 'socialist' or even 'hard socialist'. But that would be wrong about how they are on the whole now. Same with this lot. Wait and see what they actually do. Ignore completely what they and their enemies say.
    How about the "Hard Right Origins & Rhetoric but Let's See What They Actually Do Now They're In Power in Coalition with Others" BROTHERS OF ITALY party?

    Bit of a mouthful but hey.
    Good idea. It's a bit like wondering whether, in accordance with their historical roots, the next Labour government will nationalise the banks and all the other commanding heights of the nation's economy.

    Bit previous to assume we will still have banks and an economy after a couple of years of Trussism.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63039687

    Don't talk. Do. Now. Make up for the stupidity of restricting the increase to 0.5% at the last meeting. Now. Oh, and quit, please, so someone credible can take your place.
  • MaxPB said:

    Parity by Friday at this rate unless the Treasury comes up with a costed plan that shows debt levels falling within two years.

    How the flying **** are we going to pay for the further prospective tax cuts and significant increases in defence spending if we don't further increase debt and significantly?

    Now, as the quaint old notion of cutting services would appear to already have been done to death, and the idea of cutting back dead wood inefficiency is no longer believed, what is the alternative to further borrowing. It looks to me like we are in for a penny, in for a pound.
    In for ten pounds because of rampant inflation. The announcement today that they're sticking to the current spending limits means that there will be large real-terms cuts in departmental spending. Combine that with the large tax increases because of the frozen taxation thresholds and it's very clear that they are banking on persistent high inflation to balance the books.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594
    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    I actually don't think a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have been this bad - at least he would be talking to the cameras...
  • Question - is Kamikaze smart enough to have gameplayed this scenario? Interest rates - not the tax cut - can be blamed on what fucked the economy and thus forced the huge squeeze on public spending announced by Kwarteng this afternoon (the MTFS in late Nov means no Spending review which means all departmental budgets killed by runaway inflation).

    Instead of taking the blame for departmental cuts and pay freezes, they simply blame the BofE and rescind its independence in November. They take full control and can appoint an eminent economist like John Redwood to do monetary policy instead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    MaxPB said:

    Parity by Friday at this rate unless the Treasury comes up with a costed plan that shows debt levels falling within two years.

    Which the Treasury won’t do if they think as much of Bailey as we do, and want rid.
    It was Boris's administration that appointed the BoE Governor. Not an administration known for picking talent...
    I could plead Kate Bingham but that is starting to look the exception to the rule.
  • Truss, Kwarteng and the Governor of the Bank of England, handpicked by the government if which they were a part, are totally out of their depth. That is the basic problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    Some are pointing out here that the Bank is claiming it ‘will not hesitate’… while hesitating.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1574429651212058628
  • MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    Liz will still be PM in 2025.
  • eek said:

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    I actually don't think a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have been this bad - at least he would be talking to the cameras...
    Whatever you think of John McDonnell, he will always have those bonus points scored in that budget response where he produced Mao's Little Red Book, quoted from it, then slung it across the dispatch box at Osborne and Cameron whose faces were lit up like a small child in a sweet shop.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    If Kwasi Kwarteng doesn't make it through Conservative party conference to the end of next week, he'd be the shortest serving Chancellor since the start of the 20th Century (beating Iain Macleod, who died in office in '70, and served for 30 days). #justsaying https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1574430325895217154/photo/1
  • MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    Liz will still be PM in 2025.
    A January 2025 election? Would look a bit desperate.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,612

    Labour 44% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    SNP 4% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield. Starmer ahead 38 34 best PM

    Post budget

    I think it's still early days and that looks like MoE movement. Current chaos may influence the polls more quickly than most stories but I reckon a week out a lot of those cautious Tory returners will be back in the don't know / Lib Dem camp.

    Next week I expect several Tory sub-30 scores with Lib Dems back at 13-14% and Labour comfortably in 43-45% zone, before falling back a little if things settle down.

    Truss is showing her lack of political tactics this week. Not only is she invisible, seemingly hiding behind Kwarteng in the style of T May, but there's not even any dead cat or distraction going on. Boris would have had at least 2 calls with Zelensky over the weekend and probably got Nadine to come up with a proposal to privatise the BBC.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Dynamo said:

    @phildstewart
    BREAKING - Russian FSB security service says it has detained Japanese Consul in Vladivostok - RIA - Reuters News


    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1574419791028396040

    Well they'll have to let him go, then, under the Vienna convention, even if he's killed 10 people. Methinks a complete non-story. If he's done anything naughty all the Russian authorities can do is kick him out. Any naughtiness on his part is a matter for the Japanese authorities.
    Here's the FSB press release.

    They say Motoki Tatsunori was caught receiving money for classified information about Russia's cooperation with an Asian-Pacific country, in connection with the impact of western "sanctions" on the Primorsky Krai region. (This is the region that contains the city of Vladivostok.) Mr Tatsunori has been declared PNG.
  • DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Parity by Friday at this rate unless the Treasury comes up with a costed plan that shows debt levels falling within two years.

    Which the Treasury won’t do if they think as much of Bailey as we do, and want rid.
    It was Boris's administration that appointed the BoE Governor. Not an administration known for picking talent...
    I could plead Kate Bingham but that is starting to look the exception to the rule.
    I'm very thankful for that exception. Imagine if he'd bungled vaccines like everything else?
  • MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
  • MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    Liz will still be PM in 2025.
    Which country, William?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this (1/2) https://twitter.com/samueltombs/status/1574429056593977344/photo/1
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,316

    darkage said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
    100 sq meters is a small house, maybe 2 bedroom. It does not cost £250,000 to build such a house, especially on an estate where there are lots of very similar houses.

    It's not far off a according to below;

    "The average new build cost per square metre is around £2,387.50"

    https://www.checkatrade.com/blog/cost-guides/building-cost-per-sq-m/
    A 2 bedroom house on an estate of similar builds costs between £60-70,000, a one off maybe £100,000 max.

    As an example the electrical works will cost between 2-3K depending on the accessories. The plumbing/heating will be between £3,500-£4000 depending again on the standard of boiler etc.

    Chaps who do house bashing are fantastic at doing it quickly.
    This is just not the real world in 2022. I am guessing your information is from about 8 years ago.
    Not really, I work in the construction industry. I quote for the M & E on houses all the time. A good house basher will take a day to do all the electrics on a 2 bed house.
    Right. OK.
    But if you are correct, where does that leave the BCIS data on build costs? What about rebuilding costs used for the purpose of insurance. What about the 'viability' reports that get submitted with major planning applications and cross checked by district valuers and indpendent reviewers and which all generally come out with build costs at the price I am quoting.
    Is all this lies and the reality is that there are 'house bashers' that are out there doing it for £750 a sqm?
    FWIW I did believe that this was the case myself, until I actually tried to develop some land. And I've worked in the construction industry myself, albeit in a peripheral role, for the last 15 years.
    What you are suggesting just seems like a unreliable anecdote rather than serious evidence, like the 'estimate' from the self employed builder that is a third of the price that you get if you go through a tendering process.
    If you look at linkedin, you can see a lot of interesting discussion amongst surveyors regarding these reports of these very cheap quotes for building work, obviously they take a dim view of it.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,612
    eek said:

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    I actually don't think a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have been this bad - at least he would be talking to the cameras...
    Ad it would have happened back in 2017 or 2019 against a backdrop of tame inflation, at least until this year.
  • Not only a big Labour lead, but Truss’s numbers in freefall and Starmer ahead as best PM.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-september-2022/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    UK govt bond yields just spiked even higher.
    10 year now up to 4.24%
    This is NOT the reaction HMT & BoE would have wanted to their statements.
    Still early doors. Let’s see what happens next...
    Chart shows you the 10yr’s movements so far today
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574430982907871233/photo/1
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    Question - is Kamikaze smart enough to have gameplayed this scenario? Interest rates - not the tax cut - can be blamed on what fucked the economy and thus forced the huge squeeze on public spending announced by Kwarteng this afternoon (the MTFS in late Nov means no Spending review which means all departmental budgets killed by runaway inflation).

    Instead of taking the blame for departmental cuts and pay freezes, they simply blame the BofE and rescind its independence in November. They take full control and can appoint an eminent economist like John Redwood to do monetary policy instead.

    He's done what? Does he want the winter of discontent redux? Every part of the public sector on strike until their wages are increased by something like inflation? At which point every department exceeds budget?

    I really thought this guy was supposed to be clever. This is deeply mad. No wonder the markets are so unimpressed.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63039687

    Don't talk. Do. Now. Make up for the stupidity of restricting the increase to 0.5% at the last meeting. Now. Oh, and quit, please, so someone credible can take your place.
    There are times, when exactly the right thing to do is nothing. This would seem massively to be one of those times. It would be a complete waste of resource to try and stop the pound falling further when this is the momentum - as daft as trying to stop a car that's been rolling down a steep hill for several minutes. This phase will slow and stop. Then perhaps such influence as the Government and Bank of England possesses can get behind the pound's recovery. If the pound is undervalued, it will rise. If its new low level is it's true value, then let's work with that.

    PB is making a complete spectacle of itself today.
  • slade said:

    City AM reporting rumours that President Xi is under house arrest. Any views?

    Where are you seeing that? Nothing on their twitter or website that I can see.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2022

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    Do we think that JMcD would have abolished the 45% tax rate,,,,,?
    or any of the other tax cuts ? I doubt it, even the basic rate. The same level of defence spending ? Energy bailout without windfall taxes ? Public commitment to more tax cuts in the future ?

    Mais non, je pense !
  • Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    2m
    UK govt bond yields just spiked even higher.
    10 year now up to 4.24%
    This is NOT the reaction HMT & BoE would have wanted to their statements.
    Still early doors. Let’s see what happens next...
    Chart shows you the 10yr’s movements so far today
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Putin gives Snowden Russian citizenship
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,594

    MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
    Yes, Rishi at 11 is good value, I've backed an election in 2022 as well.

    Rishi is literally being proved right about everything he said in the leadership election process that the reckless plans would lead to a run on sterling and gilts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63039687

    Don't talk. Do. Now. Make up for the stupidity of restricting the increase to 0.5% at the last meeting. Now. Oh, and quit, please, so someone credible can take your place.
    There are times, when exactly the right thing to do is nothing. This would seem massively to be one of those times. It would be a complete waste of resource to try and stop the pound falling further when this is the momentum - as daft as trying to stop a car that's been rolling down a steep hill for several minutes. This phase will slow and stop. Then perhaps such influence as the Government and Bank of England possesses can get behind the pound's recovery. If the pound is undervalued, it will rise. If its new low level is it's true value, then let's work with that.

    PB is making a complete spectacle of itself today.
    I agree with the first part. There are times to do nothing. I do not agree that this is one of those times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,369
    edited September 2022
    A former Tory SPAD gets in touch about the special fiscal operation.

    ‘Almost like Liz Truss likes being humiliated, can’t get more humiliating for a PM than the country having a currency and borrowing crisis on their watch.’
  • Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    Do we think that JMcD would have abolished the 45% tax rate,,,,,?
    Of course. He would have abolished it and replaced it with a new 65% tax rate.....
  • How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,164
    UK LENDER SKIPTON BUILDING SOCIETY WITHDRAWS NEW MORTGAGE BUSINESS PRODUCT RANGE WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT - EMAIL SENT TO BROKERS https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1574429923082657792
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,708

    Putin gives Snowden Russian citizenship

    Is he being sent to Ukraine?
  • This thread has reached parity.
  • MaxPB said:

    Parity by Friday at this rate unless the Treasury comes up with a costed plan that shows debt levels falling within two years.

    On the bright side, the Department for Education are doing their bit to reduce government spending.

    You don't have to pay teachers who don't exist, do you?

    https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/secondary-teacher-trainees-40-below-government-target

    The government has missed its target for secondary teacher trainee numbers by 40 per cent, data released today suggests.
    And the number of secondary trainees accepted onto courses starting this month is 23 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
    Some subjects are up to 55 per cent behind target, with particular problems in physics and computing.
    I really don't get these undershoots on public sector workforces. It must be the easiest demand planning in the known universe. You factor in a slightly higher than average attrition rate and employ related to highly predictable need. The same with NHS. Every year there are thousands of perfectly suitable applicants who apply for med school only to be turned down, often on highly spurious grounds and then, quelle surprise, there is a shortage of junior doctors 7 years down the track. And it isn't just the government at fault it is the institutions and educational establishments. It is pathetic. Perhaps there are some people in positions of responsibility in the public sector who want the shortages? Or is it just incompetence? Probably both.
  • The Tories are not going to defenestrate Truss 4 weeks into the job.

    They are (probably) screwed for the next GE now, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. If they dump a leader the membership has just freshly elected for a coronation it will doom them with the rank and file. They’ll be even more screwed.
  • DavidL said:

    Question - is Kamikaze smart enough to have gameplayed this scenario? Interest rates - not the tax cut - can be blamed on what fucked the economy and thus forced the huge squeeze on public spending announced by Kwarteng this afternoon (the MTFS in late Nov means no Spending review which means all departmental budgets killed by runaway inflation).

    Instead of taking the blame for departmental cuts and pay freezes, they simply blame the BofE and rescind its independence in November. They take full control and can appoint an eminent economist like John Redwood to do monetary policy instead.

    He's done what? Does he want the winter of discontent redux? Every part of the public sector on strike until their wages are increased by something like inflation? At which point every department exceeds budget?

    I really thought this guy was supposed to be clever. This is deeply mad. No wonder the markets are so unimpressed.
    Its true: Times report: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pay-pain-for-workers-as-public-sector-squeezed-spcfnhkf0

    And Mail tweet here https://twitter.com/TomWitherow/status/1574418731945852928
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
    Yes, Rishi at 11 is good value, I've backed an election in 2022 as well.

    Rishi is literally being proved right about everything he said in the leadership election process that the reckless plans would lead to a run on sterling and gilts.

    The fact is that Britain has too much debt. We cannot meet all our obligations, given the size of our economy.

    It is clear that whoever is in power will have to slash spending at some juncture. Kwarteng will have to. Sunak would have had to as well, because his tax increases were not yielding the money he wanted.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is not Kwasi Kwarteng. It is Rishi Sunak.

    It is Sunak's insane furlough scheme that bankrupted Britain.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,551

    Question - is Kamikaze smart enough to have gameplayed this scenario? Interest rates - not the tax cut - can be blamed on what fucked the economy and thus forced the huge squeeze on public spending announced by Kwarteng this afternoon (the MTFS in late Nov means no Spending review which means all departmental budgets killed by runaway inflation).

    Instead of taking the blame for departmental cuts and pay freezes, they simply blame the BofE and rescind its independence in November. They take full control and can appoint an eminent economist like John Redwood to do monetary policy instead.

    KKs budget isn't as awful as is made out. The measures are quite sensible. What's mind-boggly striking is that he should do such things now. I am a firm believer in low tax and small state, but I don't think I'd have risked it. The deficit will be the judge.
  • I'd almost think Bailey is doing this on purpose now, he couldn't be any weaker if he tried.

    Last week he lets expectations run wild that base rates will go up by 75 points, in line with the Fed, then only increases them by 50 points. Then today's a press release that the Bank would be making a statement, only to issue such a weak statement via press release that basically says "the Bank will do its job" and nothing else.

    What's the point of saying you'll be making a statement, if you have no statement to actually make. Very weak.

    No respect for Bailey at all.

    Well what's the point in Bailey raising interest rates if Kwartang comes back and says, "I'll raise you a 10% cut on VAT"?
    Well they have separate jobs, don't they?

    The US Dollar is appreciating strongly because the Federal Reserve have been quite aggressive on rate rises, even as the Federal Government has a deficit with numbers so eyewatering it looks like the UK is running a budget surplus in comparison.
    I have pointed out that what the BoE and the CoE are doing is counter intuitive.

    You have replied by saying "look squirrel!"
    No, I'm saying if the BoE did its own job competently, then that would be good regardless of what the CoE does. Biden and Congress are spending like its going out of fashion, but the Federal Reserve are doing their job. The Bank of England are frankly asleep at the wheel.
    But the CoE is immediately undoing any remedial action from the BoE.

    Wood from trees Bart, wood from trees!
    But that's not true, because the Bank aren't even taking the requisite actions in the first place.

    The US Treasury have done a fiscal loosening that makes Kwasi look like George Osborne, so why isn't the dollar collapsing? Because the Fed are acting. The Bank aren't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    Putin gives Snowden Russian citizenship

    So is he off to Ukraine tomorrow? Good luck!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,251
    edited September 2022

    How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.

    Or Kwasi could do a Zahawi and blame it all on Truss instead.....the high jinks we get with this lot, who needs Eastenders for some silly family drama.......glad I didn't vote for Miliband and his chaos.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    If mortgage rates rise to 6%—as implied by markets’ current expectations for Bank Rate—the average household refinancing a 2yr fixed rate mortgage in the first half of 2023 will see *monthly* repayments jump to £1,490, from £863. Many simply won’t be able to afford this (1/2) https://twitter.com/samueltombs/status/1574429056593977344/photo/1

    solution is to move to a smaller property i think or to a worse area
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63039687

    Don't talk. Do. Now. Make up for the stupidity of restricting the increase to 0.5% at the last meeting. Now. Oh, and quit, please, so someone credible can take your place.
    There are times, when exactly the right thing to do is nothing. This would seem massively to be one of those times. It would be a complete waste of resource to try and stop the pound falling further when this is the momentum - as daft as trying to stop a car that's been rolling down a steep hill for several minutes. This phase will slow and stop. Then perhaps such influence as the Government and Bank of England possesses can get behind the pound's recovery. If the pound is undervalued, it will rise. If its new low level is it's true value, then let's work with that.

    PB is making a complete spectacle of itself today.
    Indeed. And were it a Labour chancellor borrowing billions at vastly accelerating interest rates to hand uncosted bungs to Unite and Unison, with the markets utterly tanking, your response would be absolutely calm and unflustered. "Just do nothing. This is fine"
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,055
    FWIW, I have started seeing advertisements here in the Seattle area from smaller banks offering actual interest on various savings products.

    A year ago, the major banks would offer you a one-time bonus for parking your money with them, and just enough interest to make your income tax returns a little more complex.

    (I don't know what economic theory says about such things, but I have long speculated that the "natural", inflation-adjusted rate for simple savings accounts should be about 3 percent, or a little higher. The long period of zero interest rates has not been good, in my opinion, for the economy.)
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
    Yes, Rishi at 11 is good value, I've backed an election in 2022 as well.

    Rishi is literally being proved right about everything he said in the leadership election process that the reckless plans would lead to a run on sterling and gilts.
    If you are a Tory MP with a brain and a conscience staring in horror at this, the "so what do we do about it" solution is clear.
    Vote down the Special Fiscal Operation. Bring down Truss. Install Sunak.
  • darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    darkage said:

    If you look in to the 'house price crash' idea, I'm not sure anyone actually benefits.
    If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house.
    And that is before land cost, planning cost, etc etc etc.
    A 250k house will cost £17500 per year just in mortgage interest if the rate rises to 7%. So £1458 per month.
    How many people can realistically afford that?
    The fundamental problem here is that wages are not catching up with build cost inflation, and the housing market can only function in its current form when rates are at the 2% ish mark.

    £250,000 to build a house, how big a house are you talking about?
    Can people read what other people have written ??

    "If you look at build costs, it costs £250000 to just build a house. Thats what it costs. £250 per sqm for a 100 sqm house. "
    100 sq meters is a small house, maybe 2 bedroom. It does not cost £250,000 to build such a house, especially on an estate where there are lots of very similar houses.

    It's not far off a according to below;

    "The average new build cost per square metre is around £2,387.50"

    https://www.checkatrade.com/blog/cost-guides/building-cost-per-sq-m/
    A 2 bedroom house on an estate of similar builds costs between £60-70,000, a one off maybe £100,000 max.

    As an example the electrical works will cost between 2-3K depending on the accessories. The plumbing/heating will be between £3,500-£4000 depending again on the standard of boiler etc.

    Chaps who do house bashing are fantastic at doing it quickly.
    This is just not the real world in 2022. I am guessing your information is from about 8 years ago.
    Not really, I work in the construction industry. I quote for the M & E on houses all the time. A good house basher will take a day to do all the electrics on a 2 bed house.
    Right. OK.
    But if you are correct, where does that leave the BCIS data on build costs? What about rebuilding costs used for the purpose of insurance. What about the 'viability' reports that get submitted with major planning applications and cross checked by district valuers and indpendent reviewers and which all generally come out with build costs at the price I am quoting.
    Is all this lies and the reality is that there are 'house bashers' that are out there doing it for £750 a sqm?
    FWIW I did believe that this was the case myself, until I actually tried to develop some land. And I've worked in the construction industry myself, albeit in a peripheral role, for the last 15 years.
    What you are suggesting just seems like a unreliable anecdote rather than serious evidence, like the 'estimate' from the self employed builder that is a third of the price that you get if you go through a tendering process.
    If you look at linkedin, you can see a lot of interesting discussion amongst surveyors regarding these reports of these very cheap quotes for building work, obviously they take a dim view of it.

    It is not an anecdote, Southern Hampshire is new build land and has been for the past 5 years, new housing estates are popping up everywhere, I quote for the work although have won virtually nothing as I am too dear. My figures are the construction costs of building a 2 bed house on a estate where there are lots of very similar 2 bedroom houses. One off houses will be more expensive.
  • How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.

    Most of the intelligent segment of the Tory membership resigned when Johnson was in the ascendancy and the membership was swamped by amoeba brained UKIPers.

    We are now perhaps seeing the outcome. Either that or Truss and Kwasi bounce back and claim to have held their nerve. I still maintain she is better than Johnson, though that was a very very low bar.
  • Not only a big Labour lead, but Truss’s numbers in freefall and Starmer ahead as best PM.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-september-2022/

    Hmm...the leads not that big, but I think it will get bigger.

    The Truss figure is startling though. When did an incoming PM last lose the public like this?
  • MISTY said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
    Yes, Rishi at 11 is good value, I've backed an election in 2022 as well.

    Rishi is literally being proved right about everything he said in the leadership election process that the reckless plans would lead to a run on sterling and gilts.

    The fact is that Britain has too much debt. We cannot meet all our obligations, given the size of our economy.

    It is clear that whoever is in power will have to slash spending at some juncture. Kwarteng will have to. Sunak would have had to as well, because his tax increases were not yielding the money he wanted.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is not Kwasi Kwarteng. It is Rishi Sunak.

    It is Sunak's insane furlough scheme that bankrupted Britain.
    Tell that to the thousands of businesses and millions of individuals that were kept afloat by it.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    Not only a big Labour lead, but Truss’s numbers in freefall and Starmer ahead as best PM.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-september-2022/

    Hmm...the leads not that big, but I think it will get bigger.

    The Truss figure is startling though. When did an incoming PM last lose the public like this?
    tories should be on 20% after this...still i suppose their elderly core vote with their mortgage free houses will stay loyal
  • MISTY said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Whoever replaces Liz and Kwasi in a few weeks should start talking to Raghuram Rajan now to take over from Bailey. We need a proper governor who isn't scared of his or her own shadow.

    If Truss does fall in a sudden coup following further economic disasters in next few weeks, then Sunak at 11 on BF looks Massive Value to me.

    Surely MPs would run a quick coronation?
    Yes, Rishi at 11 is good value, I've backed an election in 2022 as well.

    Rishi is literally being proved right about everything he said in the leadership election process that the reckless plans would lead to a run on sterling and gilts.

    The fact is that Britain has too much debt. We cannot meet all our obligations, given the size of our economy.

    It is clear that whoever is in power will have to slash spending at some juncture. Kwarteng will have to. Sunak would have had to as well, because his tax increases were not yielding the money he wanted.

    The person who gave Britain too much debt is not Kwasi Kwarteng. It is Rishi Sunak.

    It is Sunak's insane furlough scheme that bankrupted Britain.
    Interesting that we were advised for years that it would be Labour that would bankrupt Britain through Tax & Spend. Advised by Tories... who are far closer to bankrupting the UK than that berk Brown ever was.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,735
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Rather than putting labels first, put actual policies and actual actions and legislation first; then decide where they fit.

    From the history of the Labour party you could call them 'socialist' or even 'hard socialist'. But that would be wrong about how they are on the whole now. Same with this lot. Wait and see what they actually do. Ignore completely what they and their enemies say.
    How about the "Hard Right Origins & Rhetoric but Let's See What They Actually Do Now They're In Power in Coalition with Others" BROTHERS OF ITALY party?

    Bit of a mouthful but hey.
    Good idea. It's a bit like wondering whether, in accordance with their historical roots, the next Labour government will nationalise the banks and all the other commanding heights of the nation's economy.
    Well not really. The "far left" policies and rhetoric has gone under Starmer. Not a trace. Nobody in their right mind expects it from Labour now. But under Corbyn? - ok, that would have been a not totally unfair comparison.

    TBH I really don't know why you're bugged about the 'far right' label for Meloni and her Brothers Of Italy. Given the origins, the rhetoric, the associations, it's reasonable to describe them as far right unless and until they show otherwise.
    Fair enough. That's a sort of burden of proof point. I think my concern is that they are being labelled in a particular way without much detailed analysis of what they have either done or said they are going to do.

    SFAICS this 'far right' group go for: NATO, EU, Euro, ECHR, one person one vote, regular elections, multi party organisation, welfare, state provision for the needy, supporting Ukraine, opposing Putin's invasion, good ol' family values, a bit of religion and some populist rhetoric.

    I haven't yet noticed: deportations, arbitrary arrest, yellow stars, mosque burning, one party state, invasions of Libya, suspension of free speech. So I shall, along with Matthew Goodwin and the Economist, wait and see.


  • The Tories are not going to defenestrate Truss 4 weeks into the job.

    They are (probably) screwed for the next GE now, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. If they dump a leader the membership has just freshly elected for a coronation it will doom them with the rank and file. They’ll be even more screwed.

    If they do not dump her, the election will look like a minor problem.
  • PeterM said:

    Not only a big Labour lead, but Truss’s numbers in freefall and Starmer ahead as best PM.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-september-2022/

    Hmm...the leads not that big, but I think it will get bigger.

    The Truss figure is startling though. When did an incoming PM last lose the public like this?
    tories should be on 20% after this...still i suppose their elderly core vote with their mortgage free houses will stay loyal
    It would be interesting to speculate what sort of odds you might get on the Tories touching 20% at some point before the GE. I don't think they would be astronomic.

    A market for Shadsy perhaps?
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sterling Falling again against dollar and euro and yen https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1574427057345404933/photo/1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63039687

    Don't talk. Do. Now. Make up for the stupidity of restricting the increase to 0.5% at the last meeting. Now. Oh, and quit, please, so someone credible can take your place.
    There are times, when exactly the right thing to do is nothing. This would seem massively to be one of those times. It would be a complete waste of resource to try and stop the pound falling further when this is the momentum - as daft as trying to stop a car that's been rolling down a steep hill for several minutes. This phase will slow and stop. Then perhaps such influence as the Government and Bank of England possesses can get behind the pound's recovery. If the pound is undervalued, it will rise. If its new low level is it's true value, then let's work with that.

    PB is making a complete spectacle of itself today.
    Indeed. And were it a Labour chancellor borrowing billions at vastly accelerating interest rates to hand uncosted bungs to Unite and Unison, with the markets utterly tanking, your response would be absolutely calm and unflustered. "Just do nothing. This is fine"
    I would like to think I would support any Government that had decided to act countercyclically to defend our economy from recession - unlike the central banks, which have consistently printed money and kept interest rates low during times of growth, and are now trying to tighten as we go into a downturn. That is very much a 'wrong thing', and I recognise and respect any Government that stands up to it.

    Whether or not that is true, or whether my feelings if Labour were doing something similar would be more aggressively partisan, I would certainly be giving the same advice not to try and protect the pound at the moment. No way, no how, is that a good idea. We must let this play out.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    theres been a massive spike in us treasury yields too last hour up 1 basis point a huge move
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    edited September 2022
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC is describing Brothers of Italy as "far right". The NYT is describing them as "hard right". Which is most accurate? The NYT in my opinion.

    Rather than putting labels first, put actual policies and actual actions and legislation first; then decide where they fit.

    From the history of the Labour party you could call them 'socialist' or even 'hard socialist'. But that would be wrong about how they are on the whole now. Same with this lot. Wait and see what they actually do. Ignore completely what they and their enemies say.
    How about the "Hard Right Origins & Rhetoric but Let's See What They Actually Do Now They're In Power in Coalition with Others" BROTHERS OF ITALY party?

    Bit of a mouthful but hey.
    Good idea. It's a bit like wondering whether, in accordance with their historical roots, the next Labour government will nationalise the banks and all the other commanding heights of the nation's economy.
    Well not really. The "far left" policies and rhetoric has gone under Starmer. Not a trace. Nobody in their right mind expects it from Labour now. But under Corbyn? - ok, that would have been a not totally unfair comparison.

    TBH I really don't know why you're bugged about the 'far right' label for Meloni and her Brothers Of Italy. Given the origins, the rhetoric, the associations, it's reasonable to describe them as far right unless and until they show otherwise.
    Fair enough. That's a sort of burden of proof point. I think my concern is that they are being labelled in a particular way without much detailed analysis of what they have either done or said they are going to do.

    SFAICS this 'far right' group go for: NATO, EU, Euro, ECHR, one person one vote, regular elections, multi party organisation, welfare, state provision for the needy, supporting Ukraine, opposing Putin's invasion, good ol' family values, a bit of religion and some populist rhetoric.

    I haven't yet noticed: deportations, arbitrary arrest, yellow stars, mosque burning, one party state, invasions of Libya, suspension of free speech. So I shall, along with Matthew Goodwin and the Economist, wait and see.
    Sense you've sniffed another example of the Woke BBC ... :smile:
  • How brutal is Truss?

    She could sack Kwarsi tomorrow and try and blame him for it all. But may not work as the basics of this were the fantasies that won her the membership vote from economically illiterate saloon-bar dwelling tory membership.

    Most of the intelligent segment of the Tory membership resigned when Johnson was in the ascendancy and the membership was swamped by amoeba brained UKIPers.

    We are now perhaps seeing the outcome. Either that or Truss and Kwasi bounce back and claim to have held their nerve. I still maintain she is better than Johnson, though that was a very very low bar.
    Yes, better than Johnson, if only because she is not a Holy Friar.
  • Not only a big Labour lead, but Truss’s numbers in freefall and Starmer ahead as best PM.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-25-september-2022/

    Hmm...the leads not that big, but I think it will get bigger.

    The Truss figure is startling though. When did an incoming PM last lose the public like this?
    I think some of it is new leader fatigue, people have gotten a bit fed up with the revolving door of new Tory leaders and reinventions. It was always going to be tough for her given the timing of her taking over too, but it also coincides with Labour starting to look less crap and the - let’s say, novel - approach that is being taken with the public finances and COL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,995

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    I was mildly astonished to hear him on the Today programme this morning sounding utterly reasonable compared to the current incumbent.
    I'm not entirely sure he'd have been worse.

    Also now strongly in favour of PR - which would mean that a Chancellor like him or Kwarteng would never again hold office.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,995
    eek said:

    Interesting that we now have a real-world demonstration of what a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have entailed. As a scientist, it's always nice to see that a theoretical prediction has been confirmed by experiment.

    I actually don't think a John McDonnell Chancellorship would have been this bad - at least he would be talking to the cameras...
    And indeed the City (and not in the manner it's rumoured Kwarteng did).
This discussion has been closed.