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Why’s crickets still going ahead but not football? – politicalbetting.com

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  • 21 for 3
  • Ok, if the Russian rout and Putin Untergang come to pass, is it worth having a market on which PBer is the first to turn to a quivering mass of jelly at the prospect of nuclear armageddon?

    Nah, thought not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836
    Apparently the ground on which the Oval is built belongs to the Duchy of Cornwall. And they have made exactly the right decision. And England are off to a flyer too. Football called this wrong but in fairness it wasn't the easiest thing to do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    tlg86 said:

    Michael Atherton: "the authorities are desperate to not do the wrong thing."

    Which is precisely why it should have been made clear to them well beforehand that they should carry on as normal unless there are specific practical issues.

    The FA have zillions in cash, can buy in all the advice they need on PR.

    They can work it out themselves.

    These guys - https://www.greatriverrace.org.uk/ - put up a notice saying they were thinking about it. Then decided to turn it into a commerative event. Which I think strikes the right balance for everyone.

    And they are minnows compared to the FA.
  • Cyclefree said:



    Interesting to see the ceremony: a combination of grandeur and the sorts of pedantic minute-taking seen in council offices.

    No wonder political betting loves it so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    @Nigelb its like the Tet Offensive in its use of partisan warfare/sabotage behind American lines, all synchronised superbly with an outright attack on the front

    Tet came as a total shock to the USA, at a time when the Americans complacently thought the war was quietening down with no major moves

    In many ways thereafter the Tet was a failure for Hanoi and the Yanks pushed the VC back quite easily


    But Tet broke the American will to fight. It showed Americans at home the war was unwinnable and the North would never give up, and would endure any cost. From that moment Saigon 73 was inevitable



    If you’ve not read it already, you might like ‘A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam’ - superb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Bright_Shining_Lie

    Won a Pulitzer.

    Let’s hope the current Ukrainian operations become more Bagration than Tet.

    I actually read that on my first trip to Vietnam

    For me the best book about the war - and there are dozens of excellent examples - is Caputo’s “A Rumor of War”

    https://www.amazon.com/Rumor-War-Classic-Vietnam-Anniversary/dp/1250117127
    Did you read "Kill Anything that Moves" ?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Anything-Moves-American-Empire-Project/dp/1250045061


    No, and thanks, but I have probably read more than enough on Nam, TBH

    I went through an obsessive period when I devoured whole libraries on the war, because I was travelling in Indochina all the time
  • I finally understand how the North Koreans felt when Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il died.

    Full of optimism?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    https://lexfridman.com/noam-chomsky-2/

    This is a good interview of Noam Chomsky regarding his views on the war in Ukraine.
    His assessment of Putin and the causes of the war were pretty accurate, I thought.
    The surprising aspect of his views are that he condemns the invasion of Ukraine, and agrees that we should be aiding Ukraine in its defence, with military support.
    But surely that is pretty much exactly what we are doing?

    The latter part of the interview was more disappointing, he trots out his more usual positions about everything America doing being bad and takes a benevolent stance to China, Iran etc.

    His main message is just to seek out opposing perspectives and think for yourself, something I completely agree with.
    He is certainly someone who shouldn't just be dismissed as a propogandist etc.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836
    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why have we got Catherine Deneuve running the show?

    Belle De Jour is one of the best films ever made. If you've a strong stomach try Repulsion too. Been meaning to try The Umbrellas Of Cherbourg too.

    I presume you are commenting on her likeness to Penny Mordaunt? She is the official face of Marianne the goddess of liberty.
    Yes, Mordaunt. Talk about the starring role. It seemed to be all about her.

    And in another shudder moment for me I realized, since I suppose it was due to her being LOTH, that it could have been Mogg. I actually couldn't have watched it then.
    Due to her being Lord President of the Council, but as it's been combined with Leader of the House of Commons since 2015 that's a distinction without a difference.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,062
    edited September 2022

    jonny83 said:

    I think Starmer's looked quite impressive during this time. Talk about a Liz T bounce, that could be cancelled out by a Starmer bounce.

    I dont think the VI will be much changed by how theyve responded, and best PM is a curious one. Starmer has looked statesmanlike at times so may bounce in that but Truss actually is being PM during this crisis and thus may also bounce....
    VI im not sure. There will be those that think CoL is being ignored but there will also be a drive behind small c conservatism because of all the tradition on display. Latent patriotism. Im not sure who benefits most from that.
    I understand all energy companies will have written to consumers shortly explaining the new cap of £2,500 from 1st October together with affirmation of the £66 per month discount for 6 months, together with the £650 extra payment to those in need and the £300 additional winter fuel allowance for pensioners

    It follows that by early October energy consumers will be aware of the scheme and discounts
  • I was a bit disappointed that Penny Mordaunt didn't read out a list of candidates for Lord High Executioner.

    We never had one. The common hangman of London (and Middlesex) usually did the job.
    Common Hangman Of Middlesex sounds like one of those antique ministerial positions, like Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster or Lord Privy Seal, generally reserved for the party chairman.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Apparently the ground on which the Oval is built belongs to the Duchy of Cornwall. And they have made exactly the right decision. And England are off to a flyer too. Football called this wrong but in fairness it wasn't the easiest thing to do.

    I don't know about Scotch L&T law but that doesn't entitle English landlords to dictate to their tenants what they do with their land. And all land in E&W belongs to Charlie now anyway.
  • DavidL said:

    Apparently the ground on which the Oval is built belongs to the Duchy of Cornwall. And they have made exactly the right decision. And England are off to a flyer too. Football called this wrong but in fairness it wasn't the easiest thing to do.

    The FA were reasonable but wrong. Not the end of the world. And we are all feeling our way a bit here.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    edited September 2022

    I was a bit disappointed that Penny Mordaunt didn't read out a list of candidates for Lord High Executioner.

    We never had one. The common hangman of London (and Middlesex) usually did the job.
    Common Hangman Of Middlesex sounds like one of those antique ministerial positions, like Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster or Lord Privy Seal, generally reserved for the party chairman.
    The sort of job you could imagine giving to JRM, except he would blanch at doing anything with the word "common" in it.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,150
    edited September 2022
    Re Mordaunt and Cahtherine Deneuve, the name Mordaunt is of French Norman origin, and as a result I've always thought the rather beautiful Penny looked a touch French.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Taz said:

    Wayne Lineker’s tribute to HM The Queen is quite something to behold.

    https://twitter.com/ichlugebullets/status/1568317330945343489?s=21&t=2_klis10nnsPs8V4ZqijFQ

    It is impossible to respond to that. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Or…Donald Trump voice…’The Swamp’
    Do hope he's not coming to the funeral. Almost rather have Putin.
    If the King neglected to invite him, I doubt there’d be much criticism. And he reportedly hates the man.

  • Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
    May this see the end of the war criminals including Putin and a chance for peace
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836

    Ok, if the Russian rout and Putin Untergang come to pass, is it worth having a market on which PBer is the first to turn to a quivering mass of jelly at the prospect of nuclear armageddon?

    Nah, thought not.

    Been muttering about that for more than a fortnight already. Its not a negligible risk.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    DavidL said:

    Apparently the ground on which the Oval is built belongs to the Duchy of Cornwall. And they have made exactly the right decision. And England are off to a flyer too. Football called this wrong but in fairness it wasn't the easiest thing to do.

    The King needs something to watch in between quiet events this weekend too.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Suboptimal news for all the HPC fanbois out there: Vampire squid predicts crashes down under and canada, level in UK

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1568340594136588288


    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    2) 📉Through the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs predicts a drop in home prices in:

    👉New Zealand (-21%)
    👉Australia (-18%)
    👉Canada (-13%)

    For comparison, the U.S. housing bubble saw home prices drop 27% between 2006 and 2012.
    Show this thread
    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    3) Even though Goldman Sachs has Australia, Canada, and New Zealand in the housing crash (or almost crash) camp, it’s less pessimistic about other G10 countries:

    👉France (-6%)
    👉 U.K. (remain the same)
    👉 U.S. (+1.8%)

    One of the mysteries of the world is how New Zealand has house prices more than double those in the UK.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,831

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Have others been watching Designated Survivor on Netflix? Basically exactly that scenario (in the US).
    I'm not sure I could quite handle that and I'm not even American.

    I mentioned to someone yesterday that if they wanted an escape from the wall to wall HMQ coverage they might want to try the 2nd series of House Of Cards.
  • DavidL said:

    Ok, if the Russian rout and Putin Untergang come to pass, is it worth having a market on which PBer is the first to turn to a quivering mass of jelly at the prospect of nuclear armageddon?

    Nah, thought not.

    Been muttering about that for more than a fortnight already. Its not a negligible risk.
    It probably isn’t but I sense you’re not the quivering jelly type.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
    May this see the end of the war criminals including Putin and a chance for peace
    I remember commenting in an email to a Russian back in February that this war ends in Putin’s death: either in a bunker / against a Kremlin wall, or in a nuclear blast as the whole Northern hemisphere goes up in smoke.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,309
    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown
  • TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
    May this see the end of the war criminals including Putin and a chance for peace
    I remember commenting in an email to a Russian back in February that this war ends in Putin’s death: either in a bunker / against a Kremlin wall, or in a nuclear blast as the whole Northern hemisphere goes up in smoke.

    Like but not the last bit !!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Have others been watching Designated Survivor on Netflix? Basically exactly that scenario (in the US).
    Ha yes, in the US they actually make a point of some people not being there at key events.

    Presumably there were a handful of the current cabinet missing this morning, to proclaim King George if the very worst had happened?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    Ok, if the Russian rout and Putin Untergang come to pass, is it worth having a market on which PBer is the first to turn to a quivering mass of jelly at the prospect of nuclear armageddon?

    Nah, thought not.

    It would be a silly market. Like the bookie who took a huge bet on nuclear weapons being used over Cuba. When asked why he didn't lay the bet, he replied, 'well, if it's a winner I won't be around to pay out.'
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    edited September 2022
    TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
    May this see the end of the war criminals including Putin and a chance for peace
    I remember commenting in an email to a Russian back in February that this war ends in Putin’s death: either in a bunker / against a Kremlin wall, or in a nuclear blast as the whole Northern hemisphere goes up in smoke.
    Videos on twitter of Russian troops on the move around Moscow. Could be a very newsy day.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1568550901350031360
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Have others been watching Designated Survivor on Netflix? Basically exactly that scenario (in the US).
    Ha yes, in the US they actually make a point of some people not being there at key events.

    Presumably there were a handful of the current cabinet missing this morning, to proclaim King George if the very worst had happened?
    The Korean remake, also on Netflix, is quite fun.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,062
    edited September 2022
    32 - 4

    Correction now

    32 - 5
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396



    I was a bit disappointed that Penny Mordaunt didn't read out a list of candidates for Lord High Executioner.

    We never had one. The common hangman of London (and Middlesex) usually did the job.
    Common Hangman Of Middlesex sounds like one of those antique ministerial positions, like Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster or Lord Privy Seal, generally reserved for the party chairman.
    The sort of job you could imagine giving to JRM, except he would blanch at doing anything with the word "common" in it.
    Do I get accused of bad taste if I suggest Mogg would be better suited to being a client?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Have others been watching Designated Survivor on Netflix? Basically exactly that scenario (in the US).
    Ha yes, in the US they actually make a point of some people not being there at key events.

    Presumably there were a handful of the current cabinet missing this morning, to proclaim King George if the very worst had happened?
    Nah, we’ve got 650 MPs, and even more Lords, George could have picked from as needed. Not that the PM even needs to be in either House. The inherent flexibility of our system means it would always be fine.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    32-4
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned...
    On that note.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1568547974023712771

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown

    Absolute johnny come lately. You needed to be there 2 months ago when they were convincing themselves that their 1-metre a week advance in the East was the pinnacle of military strategy and that all HIMARS launchers had been destroyed.

    Coming in now is like turning on the radio for the final movement of a Rachmaninoff symphony.

    Without the buildup all this pure copium would just feel forced and excessive.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
  • Apart from an (evidently obligatory in US publication) catastrophising paragraph about the current state of the UK a quite perceptive analysis of what the late Queen got right - and how politicians greatly under appreciate our soft power:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/09/queen-elizabeth-ii-death-british-monarchy-identity/671392/
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited September 2022

    32 - 4

    Correction now

    32 - 5

    Would it be in really poor taste to say that follows an England score of 70-1 declared on Thursday?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    edited September 2022
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quite an astonishing group of people there, pretty much every living senior figure in the country.

    There have never been seven living PMs before, and here they are all in the same room.

    The funeral, and the coronation to follow, will be even more astonishing in their attendance.

    That struck me too. A bomb there could in one stroke have eliminated the ... Nigel Farage voice ... "polidical clarse".
    Have others been watching Designated Survivor on Netflix? Basically exactly that scenario (in the US).
    Ha yes, in the US they actually make a point of some people not being there at key events.

    Presumably there were a handful of the current cabinet missing this morning, to proclaim King George if the very worst had happened?
    There are another 517 members of the Privy Council who couldn't fit into St James' Palace this morning who could have done it.

    As it happens, I didn't notice Kwarteng there, though I did recognise the new Foreign Secretary.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    A warning not to get too carried away.

    We have deleted our tweet of allegedly Ukrainian troops marching in Kharkiv Oblast previously reposted by multiple Ukrainian media as it shows an airsoft event.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568545399559933952
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    32-4

    You've missed one!

    This may not last the three days...

    Now I've said that, SA nailed on for 600.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359

    "Ukrainian forces were on the verge of trapping thousands of Russian soldiers in an encirclement that, if successful, would be Moscow’s worst battlefield defeat since the Second World War."

    Telegraph

    This is all putting a smile on my face. Go Ukraine.

    Lyman and Izyum seem to have been surrendered without a fight. The Ukrainians are on the pursuit. Within about 7 miles of the border apparently. Having a beer in Riga Central Market, has made up for yesterday's delayed flight.
    I understand Russian bloggers are comparing it to the Third Battle of Kharkov, in Spring 1943. That was Germany's last big victory on the Eastern front.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
    Yes, the impact of the Royal Naval blockade was pretty grim by then.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Driver said:

    Bank Holiday for the funeral.

    Are banks still a thing?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    IshmaelZ said:

    Suboptimal news for all the HPC fanbois out there: Vampire squid predicts crashes down under and canada, level in UK

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1568340594136588288


    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    2) 📉Through the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs predicts a drop in home prices in:

    👉New Zealand (-21%)
    👉Australia (-18%)
    👉Canada (-13%)

    For comparison, the U.S. housing bubble saw home prices drop 27% between 2006 and 2012.
    Show this thread
    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    3) Even though Goldman Sachs has Australia, Canada, and New Zealand in the housing crash (or almost crash) camp, it’s less pessimistic about other G10 countries:

    👉France (-6%)
    👉 U.K. (remain the same)
    👉 U.S. (+1.8%)

    One of the mysteries of the world is how New Zealand has house prices more than double those in the UK.
    Constraints on building plus lots of Kiwis buying from abroad/returning plus foreign investors.

    Working in IT in London, a common theme for people who have come here for work is buying/building a house back home with the money. One Bulgarian lady was buying a new flat in the suburbs of Sofia every year….
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown

    Absolute johnny come lately. You needed to be there 2 weeks ago when they were convincing themselves that their 1-metre a week advance in the East was the pinnacle of military strategy and that all HIMARS launchers had been destroyed.

    Coming in now is like turning on the radio for the final movement of a Rachmaninoff symphony.

    Without the buildup all this pure copium would just feel forced and excessive.
    Now it resembles more Gotterdamerung.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396
    Sean_F said:

    "Ukrainian forces were on the verge of trapping thousands of Russian soldiers in an encirclement that, if successful, would be Moscow’s worst battlefield defeat since the Second World War."

    Telegraph

    This is all putting a smile on my face. Go Ukraine.

    Lyman and Izyum seem to have been surrendered without a fight. The Ukrainians are on the pursuit. Within about 7 miles of the border apparently. Having a beer in Riga Central Market, has made up for yesterday's delayed flight.
    I understand Russian bloggers are comparing it to the Third Battle of Kharkov, in Spring 1943. That was Germany's last big victory on the Eastern front.
    Yes, I'm uneasy with comparisons to Soviet defeats in WWII because they did win the war.

    However, against that they were part of a major alliance that kept them going with weapons, especially motor transport, and the Germans were trying to conquer the whole empire up to the Urals. If they had stopped at Rostov and offered Stalin peace terms on that basis, they might just have got away with it, at any rate for a time.

    Stalin probably wouldn't have accepted but he might finally have been removed or shot himself anyway under those circumstances.
  • Apart from an (evidently obligatory in US publication) catastrophising paragraph about the current state of the UK a quite perceptive analysis of what the late Queen got right - and how politicians greatly under appreciate our soft power:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/09/queen-elizabeth-ii-death-british-monarchy-identity/671392/

    With their attacks on the BBC and the international aid budget, and opposition to vaccine sharing, some politicians not only underestimate Britain's soft power, they go out of their way to undermine it.
  • There must be a huge row going on behind the scenes over the date of the funeral. A bank holiday has been declared which rules out Saturday. The for-gods-sake-get-it-over-with party are presumably campaigning for Friday while the we-need-an-extra-72-hours-to-get-ready party are holding out for Monday. Time is on their side.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    ydoethur said:

    32-4

    You've missed one!

    This may not last the three days...

    Now I've said that, SA nailed on for 600.
    Fell while I was posting. Beginning to wonder if we want to bat on this pitch!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    ydoethur said:

    32-4

    You've missed one!

    This may not last the three days...

    Now I've said that, SA nailed on for 600.
    Fell while I was posting. Beginning to wonder if we want to bat on this pitch!
    I didn't know we had a choice.
  • Leon said:

    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown

    Putin still has this worshipper:

    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ·
    12h
    Here at the end of the day the reality of an overwhelming and devastatingly punishing Russian victory is even more apparent than it was 10 hours ago.

    The Russian-held part of Balakleya was never taken; neither Kupyansk nor Izyum are threatened; AFU casualties are catastrophic.

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568370298373967872?cxt=HHwWgMDU7cGe_MMrAAAA


    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ·
    7h
    It's going to be fascinating to observe how #CultusUkraini deals with the creeping realization that the erstwhile #GloriousCounterOffensive has become the most decisively shattering defeat of this disastrous war.

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568448430602878978?cxt=HHwWhIDUqbTin8QrAAAA
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359

    Leon said:

    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown

    Putin still has this worshipper:

    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ·
    12h
    Here at the end of the day the reality of an overwhelming and devastatingly punishing Russian victory is even more apparent than it was 10 hours ago.

    The Russian-held part of Balakleya was never taken; neither Kupyansk nor Izyum are threatened; AFU casualties are catastrophic.

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568370298373967872?cxt=HHwWgMDU7cGe_MMrAAAA


    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ·
    7h
    It's going to be fascinating to observe how #CultusUkraini deals with the creeping realization that the erstwhile #GloriousCounterOffensive has become the most decisively shattering defeat of this disastrous war.

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568448430602878978?cxt=HHwWhIDUqbTin8QrAAAA
    Is this Steiner's counter-attack?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    Nigelb said:

    A warning not to get too carried away.

    We have deleted our tweet of allegedly Ukrainian troops marching in Kharkiv Oblast previously reposted by multiple Ukrainian media as it shows an airsoft event.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568545399559933952

    This is real, though.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1568552147821764610
    As the AFU advances in #Kharkiv Oblast we can finally see the results of HIMARS strikes; at least 2 Tigr-M IMVs, 2 R-149MA1, 1 R-145BM1 command and staff vehicle, 2 9T244 Tor AD system transloaders, armored KAMAZ & many more cargo trucks were obliterated.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
    Well, not really. They had defeated Russia, and had several hundred thousand troops free from that, the Americans were only present in small numbers and green, while the French army had mutinied in 1917. There was a possibility of allied collapse in 1918 too, and it nearly happened.

    In a curious bit of symmetry it was the Serbian offensive on the Salonika front that kicked off the final collapse.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    The Haig the butcher stuff was a later invention. When he died, the crowds of veterans at his funeral were huge.

    Kitchener and he turned out to be right - they both said it would take 3 years to raise, train and equip an army of the scale of the Germans. Then the Germans would be outnumbered and lose.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Being serious for a moment I haven't seen anything quite as ridiculous for years. I've been involved in some whacky ads in some strange places but this has set a new bar
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Alistair said:

    The Ukrainian Kharkiv adventure get ever more spectacular in the speed of their advance.

    When the picture was shown with them on the very outskirts of Kupyansk I treated it with caution it deserved. Now they have photos from the centre of town.

    The rumour (I don't believe it) is that the Russians are preparing a withdrawal not only from Izyum, but Lyman.

    Perhaps the rumour just a few days ahead of the curve.
    Izyum has fallen. This is developing into a major Russian rout.
    More like abandoned. But how many thousands are going to be left behind as the rout continues? Huge numbers of POWs coming up, equipment and amunition abandoned and a complete collapse in morale.
    Lyman seems to have fallen also, about 35km from Izyum. The whole front seems to have been ripped open. Looks like the beginning of panic on the Russian side. As President Ilves said, this is Mukden or Tsushima. Catastrophic Russian defeat.
    May this see the end of the war criminals including Putin and a chance for peace
    I remember commenting in an email to a Russian back in February that this war ends in Putin’s death: either in a bunker / against a Kremlin wall, or in a nuclear blast as the whole Northern hemisphere goes up in smoke.
    Videos on twitter of Russian troops on the move around Moscow. Could be a very newsy day.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SmartUACat/statu
    s/1568550901350031360
    "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen" - some chap called Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
    Well, not really. They had defeated Russia, and had several hundred thousand troops free from that, the Americans were only present in small numbers and green, while the French army had mutinied in 1917. There was a possibility of allied collapse in 1918 too, and it nearly happened.

    In a curious bit of symmetry it was the Serbian offensive on the Salonika front that kicked off the final collapse.

    The German army was still functioning.

    Rather less so the German economy. Small issue with trying to import anything.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    Sounds like there's a bit of a ruckus in the east end. Republican march had been planned and the police pulled the plug. Which hasn't gone down terribly well.
  • 36 - 6
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    The Haig the butcher stuff was a later invention. When he died, the crowds of veterans at his funeral were huge.

    Kitchener and he turned out to be right - they both said it would take 3 years to raise, train and equip an army of the scale of the Germans. Then the Germans would be outnumbered and lose.
    Also, of course, Haig was the person who oversaw many profound innovations in tactics, particularly the one when he saw Monash's plans for using tanks and aircraft to support substantial infantry advances acting in concert, immediately ordered that they be made the standard throughout the army. That played no small part in the Hundred Days in itself.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Suboptimal news for all the HPC fanbois out there: Vampire squid predicts crashes down under and canada, level in UK

    https://twitter.com/i/events/1568340594136588288


    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    2) 📉Through the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs predicts a drop in home prices in:

    👉New Zealand (-21%)
    👉Australia (-18%)
    👉Canada (-13%)

    For comparison, the U.S. housing bubble saw home prices drop 27% between 2006 and 2012.
    Show this thread
    FORTUNE
    @FortuneMagazine
    ·
    13h
    3) Even though Goldman Sachs has Australia, Canada, and New Zealand in the housing crash (or almost crash) camp, it’s less pessimistic about other G10 countries:

    👉France (-6%)
    👉 U.K. (remain the same)
    👉 U.S. (+1.8%)

    One of the mysteries of the world is how New Zealand has house prices more than double those in the UK.
    More land per house?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    36 - 6

    This lot are collapsing faster than a Johnson cabinet.
  • Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    i have discovered the hilarity of Russia-supporting Military Twitter. Hahahahah

    Meltdown

    Absolute johnny come lately. You needed to be there 2 weeks ago when they were convincing themselves that their 1-metre a week advance in the East was the pinnacle of military strategy and that all HIMARS launchers had been destroyed.

    Coming in now is like turning on the radio for the final movement of a Rachmaninoff symphony.

    Without the buildup all this pure copium would just feel forced and excessive.
    Now it resembles more Gotterdamerung.
    Are we talking about Ukraine or the cricket here?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
    Well, not really. They had defeated Russia, and had several hundred thousand troops free from that, the Americans were only present in small numbers and green, while the French army had mutinied in 1917. There was a possibility of allied collapse in 1918 too, and it nearly happened.

    In a curious bit of symmetry it was the Serbian offensive on the Salonika front that kicked off the final collapse.

    The Germans were running out of soldiers and industry was failing, slowly but surely. Hence the inability to build tanks, for example.

    The French mutiny was caused by stupid generals insisting on futile attacks, the mutineers were quite clear about their support for the war.

    Part of the reason for kicking off Michael was that the Americans were starting to show up on the battlefield. The Germans knew that if they waited till 1919 they would be facing a vast American army as well as the British and French.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Reformation stands. The King has promised to defend and secure the Protestant religion in both England and Scotland not return us to Rome and the Vatican

    Symbolic
    Slightly more than symbolic. 'Protestant' is an archaic word but not an archaic concept. It just means 'Catholic but not Roman Catholic'. And 'catholic church' just means 'universal church' - of which the CoE modestly claims to be a little part.

    The word is archaic and should be dropped because the 'protest' ceased a few centuries ago. As Father Jack would correctly say, it is now 'an ecumenical matter'.

    The Church of Scotland affirmation of baptism includes the words “ I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy catholic Church, the communion of saints, the forgiveness of sins,
    the resurrection of the body and the life everlasting.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    There must be a huge row going on behind the scenes over the date of the funeral. A bank holiday has been declared which rules out Saturday. The for-gods-sake-get-it-over-with party are presumably campaigning for Friday while the we-need-an-extra-72-hours-to-get-ready party are holding out for Monday. Time is on their side.

    Isn’t it Monday 19th?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    36 - 6

    Collapsing faster than the Russians in Kharkiv.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Reformation stands. The King has promised to defend and secure the Protestant religion in both England and Scotland not return us to Rome and the Vatican

    Symbolic
    Slightly more than symbolic. 'Protestant' is an archaic word but not an archaic concept. It just means 'Catholic but not Roman Catholic'. And 'catholic church' just means 'universal church' - of which the CoE modestly claims to be a little part.

    The word is archaic and should be dropped because the 'protest' ceased a few centuries ago. As Father Jack would correctly say, it is now 'an ecumenical matter'.

    The Church of Scotland affirmation of baptism includes the words “ I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy catholic Church, the communion of saints, the forgiveness of sins,
    the resurrection of the body and the life everlasting.”
    Is HYUFD campaigning to restart the Gordon Riots?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    . .

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ed Miliband the only former loto there.
    No Corbyn, but also no Howard or Hague.

    I thought I did spot Michael Howard?
    Hard to tell from behind if Hague is there. There's a lot of bald men there that could be him ...
    They all look the same, eh?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    So was Germany!
    Well, not really. They had defeated Russia, and had several hundred thousand troops free from that, the Americans were only present in small numbers and green, while the French army had mutinied in 1917. There was a possibility of allied collapse in 1918 too, and it nearly happened.

    In a curious bit of symmetry it was the Serbian offensive on the Salonika front that kicked off the final collapse.

    The German army was still functioning.

    Rather less so the German economy. Small issue with trying to import anything.
    Which is why spring 1918 was their last chance.

    In other echos of that denouement, revolution is now brewing in St Petersberg and Moscow.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1568442191848030210?t=oc6_IB1wM9xO3YBTHBM5gg&s=19
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    This one will keep Oryx Ukraine busy:

    "With the continuous progress of the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian fighters stumbled upon a large warehouse that had previously been destroyed by "HIMARS" strikes, which was used by the Russian army to hide its vehicles."

    https://twitter.com/alrakad_M/status/1568555770656051201
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    The Haig the butcher stuff was a later invention. When he died, the crowds of veterans at his funeral were huge.

    Kitchener and he turned out to be right - they both said it would take 3 years to raise, train and equip an army of the scale of the Germans. Then the Germans would be outnumbered and lose.
    Yes, the 60s “oh what a lovely war” and 80s Blackadder myth have gone on too long. People forget, or just don’t realise, that the First World War was a just war and one we won. We started unprepared but we always do.

  • IanB2 said:

    There must be a huge row going on behind the scenes over the date of the funeral. A bank holiday has been declared which rules out Saturday. The for-gods-sake-get-it-over-with party are presumably campaigning for Friday while the we-need-an-extra-72-hours-to-get-ready party are holding out for Monday. Time is on their side.

    Isn’t it Monday 19th?
    Nothing yet officially announced.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    The Haig the butcher stuff was a later invention. When he died, the crowds of veterans at his funeral were huge.

    Kitchener and he turned out to be right - they both said it would take 3 years to raise, train and equip an army of the scale of the Germans. Then the Germans would be outnumbered and lose.
    Also, of course, Haig was the person who oversaw many profound innovations in tactics, particularly the one when he saw Monash's plans for using tanks and aircraft to support substantial infantry advances acting in concert, immediately ordered that they be made the standard throughout the army. That played no small part in the Hundred Days in itself.
    The quotes about machine guns and tanks that get trotted out miss the following

    1) artillery was the big weapon of WWI - not machine guns. Which were effective if not supersede by sufficient artillery.

    2) Haig was skeptical of tanks when he saw the original plans. After the first usage proved they actually worked he asked for them to be built with a higher priority than artillery. Which was highest praise possible from a Western Front commander.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    ohnotnow said:

    Sounds like there's a bit of a ruckus in the east end. Republican march had been planned and the police pulled the plug. Which hasn't gone down terribly well.
    Bristol Bar has had a patriotic makeover.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/21253605.glasgows-bristol-bar-unveils-tribute-queen-elizabeth-following-death/

    As for the march, green (Irish) republican or Green(eco) republican or plain republican republican? Can't find it anywhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    I think the proclamation is the best part of it all. I just love the idea of the news being spread throughout the Kingdom by heralds and the announcement being read out in front of cathedrals, churches and town halls in every corner of the realm. I wonder how long it took for the news to become universal before there were the railways, let alone the telegraph, telephone and internet.

    Depended on where it started!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I think the proclamation is the best part of it all. I just love the idea of the news being spread throughout the Kingdom by heralds and the announcement being read out in front of cathedrals, churches and town halls in every corner of the realm. I wonder how long it took for the news to become universal before there were the railways, let alone the telegraph, telephone and internet.

    A living history lesson. Beautiful and daft in equal terms. Our silly old country at once full of sorrow and pageant.There is nowhere else like it. Even in the depth of decline we are magnificent.

    Other opinions are available
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Stop the War Coalition here hosting an event on Ukraine with no Ukrainians and speakers who have explicitly defended Russian aggression in Ukraine. STWC are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia, and they are organising on the basis of halting weapons transfers to Ukraine. It’s pure evil.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1568515417676677121

    And yet so convinced helping someone defend themselves is immoral.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited September 2022
    biggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of Ukraine, my personal view is that the one thing the Russians cannot afford is for thousands - or tens of thousands - of their troops to be captured.

    Dead. Injured. These can be hidden, at least in the short term.

    But captured troops in Ukraine is a massive problem. Because those troops can speak. And their mothers will agitate for their return.

    If there are mass captures, then I think Putin's days are numbered.


    You’ve been suggesting a possible Russian collapse for a couple of weeks. You made me sit up and read, and realise you could be right. So: chapeau
    As I recall various commentators were saying that the Russians had one more offensive of reserves left.

    They were jeered at by the usual suspects.

    The Russians had their offensive.

    This is the Ukrainian counter offensive.

    100 Days Offensive comes to mind…
    As the much maligned Haig said in January 1918, well in advance of Michael, 'the Germans would do well to hesitate before committing to a major offensive, for if it failed their position would be critical.'
    Germany probably had no choice but to roll the dice on last time. Austria Hungary and the Ottoman Empire were coming apart at the seams.
    The Haig the butcher stuff was a later invention. When he died, the crowds of veterans at his funeral were huge.

    Kitchener and he turned out to be right - they both said it would take 3 years to raise, train and equip an army of the scale of the Germans. Then the Germans would be outnumbered and lose.
    Yes, the 60s “oh what a lovely war” and 80s Blackadder myth have gone on too long. People forget, or just don’t realise, that the First World War was a just war and one we won. We started unprepared but we always do.

    Just reading Corrigan's Mud, Blood and Poppycock. Very much on that revisionist approach, though a little bit too much reminiscent of the British Army officer he was for his objectivity as a *historian* to be entirely convincing - even so, it's possible to allow for that. Rather interesting, though the Germans also evolved with their Stosstrupp tactics.
  • The change from 1953 to 2022 is immense, of course. But from 1837 to 1901 it was pretty major too.

    The 19th century oceanic telegraph cables would have reduced the time from weeks to hours.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,396

    The change from 1953 to 2022 is immense, of course. But from 1837 to 1901 it was pretty major too.

    Arguably more so. In 1837 railways were still new and not numerous and many people still travelled by stagecoach. Steamships were deemed an impossibility by most for long distance travel, until the Great Western proved them wrong.

    In 1901 you have not only cars and telephones as well as reliable ocean liners but are only two years away from powered heavier than air flight.

    And just think about all the changes in medicine, in the locations people lived in, in technology.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Driver said:

    Bank Holiday for the funeral.

    Are banks still a thing?
    Banks, yes. Branches? Not so much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    @Nigelb its like the Tet Offensive in its use of partisan warfare/sabotage behind American lines, all synchronised superbly with an outright attack on the front

    Tet came as a total shock to the USA, at a time when the Americans complacently thought the war was quietening down with no major moves

    In many ways thereafter the Tet was a failure for Hanoi and the Yanks pushed the VC back quite easily


    But Tet broke the American will to fight. It showed Americans at home the war was unwinnable and the North would never give up, and would endure any cost. From that moment Saigon 73 was inevitable



    If you’ve not read it already, you might like ‘A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam’ - superb - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Bright_Shining_Lie

    Won a Pulitzer.

    Let’s hope the current Ukrainian operations become more Bagration than Tet.

    I actually read that on my first trip to Vietnam

    For me the best book about the war - and there are dozens of excellent examples - is Caputo’s “A Rumor of War”

    https://www.amazon.com/Rumor-War-Classic-Vietnam-Anniversary/dp/1250117127
    Did you read "Kill Anything that Moves" ?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Anything-Moves-American-Empire-Project/dp/1250045061


    Catchy title. Up there with Sean McGlynn's 'Kill them all' about the Albigensian crusade (also the author of 'By Sword an Fire').
This discussion has been closed.