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Will the delay in voting impact on the outcome? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageWill the delay in voting impact on the outcome? – politicalbetting.com

Following Intelligence from GCHQ that the ballots of Tory members could be altered through online interference there’s been a delay in postal ballots being issued.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 357
    We can but hope
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    Thanks so much for the sage advice. I really appreciate it.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742
    No chance, the Tory membership have made up their mind and nothing will change that .

    In terms of Truss’s tax cut plans this looks even more ridiculous. She should be targeting help to those most in need and not dishing out cuts to people who don’t need them . Equally her policy is at loggerheads with the BOE who are trying to rein in overall spending .

  • RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209
    Andrew Bailey does remind me of the Leader of Gondor in Return of the King.

    He's just seen the Orc army and is yelling Flee! Flee for your lives!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209
    edited August 4
    nico679 said:

    No chance, the Tory membership have made up their mind and nothing will change that .

    In terms of Truss’s tax cut plans this looks even more ridiculous. She should be targeting help to those most in need and not dishing out cuts to people who don’t need them . Equally her policy is at loggerheads with the BOE who are trying to rein in overall spending .

    Bailey meekly bankrolled Sunak's gargantuan spending spree with unlimited money printing. He could have called time on it if he wanted.

    Now he sees the corollary of that, rampant inflation, something anybody with a brain cell could see 18 months ago, he is cr*pping his daipers.

  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 157
    edited August 4
    One could imagine how a country's security and intelligence community might not be too happy with allowing a person into the premiership who engages in BDSM. And to help clear the minds of those who have written here as though it's an issue of what a person does now, or whether it's cool or moral or not: it's not. The issue is who might have "helped" stop something being revealed decades ago. Once the claws are in...

    I could easily imagine that the attitude would be "We may not be perfect, but we're not making the same f***ing mistake twice in a row." Especially given Boris's parting shot "right back atcha" about something he called "the deep state".

    On the predecessor:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5041103/Security-services-wary-Foreign-Secretary.html

    https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-access-to-state-secrets-was-restricted-when-he-was-foreign-secretary-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,889
    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
  • PhilPhil Posts: 908
    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,550
    Hopefully it means Sunak will lose more decisively.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,911
    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    You don’t get to their position in politics without believing you’re the messiah and capable of turning things around, and then winning an election in two years.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,680
    Speaking of Russian trolls on pb and this thread header about NCSC/GCHQ warnings about hacking the Tory leadership ballot, I had just noted on the last thread that tonight's instalment of Liz vs Rishi (8 to 9.30 on Sky News and the web) partly clashes with Channel 4's The Undeclared War, a drama series about Russian cyberwarfare against this country.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,794
    Dynamo said:

    One could imagine how a country's security and intelligence community might not be too happy with allowing a person into the premiership who engages in BDSM. And to help clear the minds of those who have written here as though it's an issue of what a person does now, or whether it's cool or moral or not: it's not. The issue is who might have "helped" stop something being revealed decades ago. Once the claws are in...

    (Snip)

    "One could imagine how a country's security and intelligence community might not be too happy with allowing a person into the premiership who engages in BDSM"

    The intelligence community appear fine with Putin's activities though. I assume that's who you're referring to?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    Dynamo said:

    One could imagine how a country's security and intelligence community might not be too happy with allowing a person into the premiership who engages in BDSM. And to help clear the minds of those who have written here as though it's an issue of what a person does now, or whether it's cool or moral or not: it's not. The issue is who might have "helped" stop something being revealed decades ago. Once the claws are in...

    I could easily imagine that the attitude would be "We may not be perfect, but we're not making the same f***ing mistake twice in a row." Especially given Boris's parting shot "right back atcha" about something he called "the deep state".

    On the predecessor:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5041103/Security-services-wary-Foreign-Secretary.html

    https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-access-to-state-secrets-was-restricted-when-he-was-foreign-secretary-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

    No one seems particularly concerned by Russian kompromat any more. And to think it brought down a Government in 1964. How times have changed!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,936

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,117
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:


    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.

    You're shifting the argument there.
    The back and forth was prompted by the Jenkins article. Which effectively argues for imposing a ceasefire against Ukraine's wishes.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the west should impose a decision to fight on Ukraine against its will. The reality is quite the opposite - we didn't start fully supporting them until they's demonstrated their determination to defeat the invasion.
    I think all countries in Europe should be consulted on what territorial concessions will make Putin happy to end the war.

    Germany can give them Schleswig Holstein.
    France can give them Corsica.
    The Irish can give them Cork.
    Italy can give them ….
    Etc

    Seems reasonable to me
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,421
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:


    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.

    You're shifting the argument there.
    The back and forth was prompted by the Jenkins article. Which effectively argues for imposing a ceasefire against Ukraine's wishes.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the west should impose a decision to fight on Ukraine against its will. The reality is quite the opposite - we didn't start fully supporting them until they's demonstrated their determination to defeat the invasion.
    Didn't read the Jenkins article.

    Thing is, while I support the Ukrainian decision to fight (and die) on, we (the West) have imposed all kinds of situations on all kinds of countries and to impose a ceasefire (did he say who would police it?) would stop the dying at this point right now. Would it help to achieve Ukraine's aims? Probably not and hence I would on balance not be in favour of it.

    But right now we certainly aren't "fully supporting" Ukraine and hence we are in a way complicit in prolonging the war, with thousands of dead on each side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    edited August 4

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209
    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference


    Sunak and Bailey are the architects of the situation we find ourselves in.

    Sunak's the 'sensible' choice apparently, when its fast becoming apparent that lockdown was the most reckless policy in peacetime by any British government ever.

    The excuse is they all did it. Fair enough I guess, but allow this guy to carry on? How nuts is that?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,550
    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    I would refer back to Brown's election that never was. He would have lost it anyway. Truss could well find herself in the same boat.

    Her best option is a capitulation by Russia in Ukraine and then strike. I am not sure even that mitigates the economic catastrophe heading our way, but it might.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    They would find plenty to say in a snap GE campaign. Windfall taxes and nationalisations and wealth taxes.

    What Truss policy would make the country better
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,807

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    Labour's problem is that the policies being implemented by the Tories are virtually the same as they would do, and there is little more in the way of spending promises that they can make. If you look at families on UC they will be getting over £1000 extra to help with their Energy bills this year. I can't imagine Labour will offer more than that.

    I think thats why there is a policy vacumn and Labour's attacks are more about personalities than policies.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598
    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    It's an awfully tight window. In fact, I'm not sure there's a window at all.

    If the Conservative leadership election goes to plan, we get a new PM on Tuesday 6 September. 25 days for the campaign takes us to Friday 1 October. So it looks like the earliest a General Election can be is Thursday 6 October, just after the new energy price cap comes in.

    Hard to see the Conservatives winning then, and it will have meant another month of zombie government.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282
    All this tells us is that GCHQ are doing their job. Of course our enemies would like to influence who the next Prime minister is. That shouldn't be an sort of surprise.

    The interesting thing is that all the assumptions are that it is Russia and China that would try to interfere. Usually there's a strand of thinking that believes the US/CIA would be involved. Maybe that would just be for a Labour leader.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks so much for the sage advice. I really appreciate it.

    Jonathan

    I did see your post, but didn't have a chance to respond. I have of course just quit my job without anything to go to and without redundancy. However, two things:

    (1) that was partly because of the ridiculous notice rules in education, which means in effect there are only two times a year you can quit. I didn't want to get trapped in a difficult situation so I walked. I'm assuming that you wouldn't have crazy notice periods totally out of sync with what the real world wants.

    (2) although I left with only a modest safety net I also left with a definite plan for what I'm doing next (in fact, I've already started with tutoring and have a meeting on Monday about further options).

    In your shoes, unless you are utterly fed up with your company I would definitely take the pay rise unless you have another job lined up. That should in any case stand you in better stead if you are looking for another job when it comes to salary bargaining.

    That's my input. It's your life - use it or ignore it as you see fit!
    Many thanks.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    Labour's problem is that the policies being implemented by the Tories are virtually the same as they would do, and there is little more in the way of spending promises that they can make. If you look at families on UC they will be getting over £1000 extra to help with their Energy bills this year. I can't imagine Labour will offer more than that.

    I think thats why there is a policy vacumn and Labour's attacks are more about personalities than policies.

    Get ready for some LOW turnouts...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Give it up, it's over. The King is dead long live the Queen. All the Conservative MPs have now accepted La Truss, I think you need to see that the game is up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    edited August 4
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:


    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.

    You're shifting the argument there.
    The back and forth was prompted by the Jenkins article. Which effectively argues for imposing a ceasefire against Ukraine's wishes.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the west should impose a decision to fight on Ukraine against its will. The reality is quite the opposite - we didn't start fully supporting them until they's demonstrated their determination to defeat the invasion.
    Didn't read the Jenkins article.

    Thing is, while I support the Ukrainian decision to fight (and die) on, we (the West) have imposed all kinds of situations on all kinds of countries and to impose a ceasefire (did he say who would police it?) would stop the dying at this point right now. Would it help to achieve Ukraine's aims? Probably not and hence I would on balance not be in favour of it.

    But right now we certainly aren't "fully supporting" Ukraine and hence we are in a way complicit in prolonging the war, with thousands of dead on each side.
    if you're arguing for increased weapons supply, then you agree with my position.

    And that of the Ukrainian government.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,550
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    They would find plenty to say in a snap GE campaign. Windfall taxes and nationalisations and wealth taxes.

    What Truss policy would make the country better
    Truss has signalled that she would prefer fields to be used for growing food rather than for solar panels - I realise her passion for BRITISH CHEESE and PORK MARKETS has been mocked, but I would very much support a pro-food security policy from her. We'll see what materialises. I also agree with amending the NIP unilaterally if other methods prove unfruitful - this is a fundamental issue of the integrity of the Kingdom for me. I don't see Labour sorting that one out. I also favour her pro-energy security agenda - greenlighting new North Sea Oil projects and looking at fracking again. That's again something we won't see from Labour.

    Obviously this is all leadership election fluff, but those things are at least a bit encouraging.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    Labour are a bit like poor old IDS in 2003. Crisis time, people will appreciate us rowing in behind the government....!

    Nope.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,938
    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Agreed. And in any case could there realistically be a bigger scandal than what's already in the public domain? - her incoherence across almost all areas of government policy.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,936
    edited August 4

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    You're absolutely right, in that the party in power gets the blame for the economy.

    However there is a narrative here. New PM, new broom, snap election in October. Message is "we hear you" on cost of living crisis -- cuts to fuel duty, nationalisation of gas supply, temporary cut in VAT etc.

    The onus would then be on Labour to see what their response would be.

    I do think the Conservatives' best chance of winning is to go for a snap election now on such a platform. No matter what policies are implemented to try to mitigate the crisis, the next couple of years are going to be horrific for most people's standard of living, so it may be the case they lose now by a little or cling on a little while longer and end up out of power for a generation.

    If I were Truss, I would be looking to go for a snap election this year. Might even stick a few quid on it. Current odds of 13/1 are quite tempting.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    Labour's problem is that the policies being implemented by the Tories are virtually the same as they would do, and there is little more in the way of spending promises that they can make. If you look at families on UC they will be getting over £1000 extra to help with their Energy bills this year. I can't imagine Labour will offer more than that.

    I think thats why there is a policy vacumn and Labour's attacks are more about personalities than policies.
    The Opposition will be as bad as we are is not a persuasive argument for a Government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    edited August 4

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    It's an awfully tight window. In fact, I'm not sure there's a window at all.

    If the Conservative leadership election goes to plan, we get a new PM on Tuesday 6 September. 25 days for the campaign takes us to Friday 1 October. So it looks like the earliest a General Election can be is Thursday 6 October, just after the new energy price cap comes in.

    Hard to see the Conservatives winning then, and it will have meant another month of zombie government.
    The only thing to say against that, is her not going then means another two years of zombie government.

    Edit - actually, I'm wondering if that's a bit unfair. Surely zombies would do better than Braverman?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    MISTY said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    Labour's problem is that the policies being implemented by the Tories are virtually the same as they would do, and there is little more in the way of spending promises that they can make. If you look at families on UC they will be getting over £1000 extra to help with their Energy bills this year. I can't imagine Labour will offer more than that.

    I think thats why there is a policy vacumn and Labour's attacks are more about personalities than policies.

    Get ready for some LOW turnouts...
    Or a populist party comes out of nowhere riding on the back of the civil disorder over the CoL crisis?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    MISTY said:

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    Labour are a bit like poor old IDS in 2003. Crisis time, people will appreciate us rowing in behind the government....!

    Nope.

    Nope!
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 157
    edited August 4
    "My view is that Truss is now so far ahead that it is very hard to see how she can be stopped."

    She doesn't have to be stopped by tempting enough gammonians to vote for Mr Sunak. Stop her by revealing something or by stitching her up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsHoTj-bScY#t=16s
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 332

    ohnotnow said:

    On the subject of expensive end-of-life care, tonight's Tory leadership debate will be live on Sky at 8pm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE

    All glorious 1.5hrs of it.

    The last half hour of tonight's leadership debate clashes with The Undeclared War — a drama series about Russian cyberwarfare against this country. It seems timely in a week when we have seen alleged Russian trolls on pb, and the National Cyber Security Centre NCSC/GCHQ had the Conservative ballot procedure changed to make it harder to rig.
    Oh - I've got an episode of that downloaded to watch over the weekend. Ta for the reminder! I'll grab some more!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    My personal feeling is that an early election would be a mistake by the Tories, because the response from the voters would tend towards, "You already have a large majority, why don't you just get on and fix things!" The voters only moan about mandates when they disagree with the policy being implemented.

    That said, the bet is not whether you personally think it would be advantageous for the Tories, but if they think it would be. I'm still fairly confident that they'd take the certainty of a comfortable majority for more than two years over the uncertain possibility of extending that for another three. The potential upside is relatively small compared to the potential downside. However, sometimes people make choices that we think are wrong. Truss might do that, and might gamble.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    You're absolutely right, in that the party in power gets the blame for the economy.

    However there is a narrative here. New PM, new broom, snap election in October. Message is "we hear you" on cost of living crisis -- cuts to fuel duty, nationalisation of gas supply, temporary cut in VAT etc.

    The onus would then be on Labour to see what their response would be.

    I do think the Conservatives' best chance of winning is to go for a snap election now on such a platform. No matter what policies are implemented to try to mitigate the crisis, the next couple of years are going to be horrific for most people's standard of living, so it may be the case they lose now by a little or cling on a little while longer and end up out of power for a generation.

    If I were Truss, I would be looking to go for a snap election this year. Might even stick a few quid on it. Current odds of 13/1 are quite tempting.
    Fill yer boots.

    I also doubt Truss's success against the economic policy incumbent (Sunak) can be replicated when she is the economic policy incumbent (she has personally been in Government for a decade) when the opposition parties are critical of our precarious financial situation.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    Dynamo said:

    "My view is that Truss is now so far ahead that it is very hard to see how she can be stopped."

    She doesn't have to be stopped by tempting enough gammonians to vote for Mr Sunak. Stop her by revealing something or by stitching her up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsHoTj-bScY#t=16s

    Silly, because what is revealed still has to sway gammonians to vote for Sunak. we know that if write ins were allowed the rotting corpse of Johnson would be voted back into office. So what sort of disclosure would in principle stop her?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 332

    MISTY said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    Labour's problem is that the policies being implemented by the Tories are virtually the same as they would do, and there is little more in the way of spending promises that they can make. If you look at families on UC they will be getting over £1000 extra to help with their Energy bills this year. I can't imagine Labour will offer more than that.

    I think thats why there is a policy vacumn and Labour's attacks are more about personalities than policies.

    Get ready for some LOW turnouts...
    Or a populist party comes out of nowhere riding on the back of the civil disorder over the CoL crisis?

    I've been toying with that idea. A home for a mix of the anti-vaxx/5G crowd mixed with the "Don't Pay UK" crowd and some ReformUK/That-actor-bloke-esque people. Maybe throw in some of the loonier Extinction Rebellian types. Could be a heady mix.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,802
    FTPT
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic [email protected]! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    Cause the righteous truth is, there ain't nothing worse than
    Some fool lying on some Third World beach wearing
    Spandex, psychedelic trousers, smoking damn dope
    Pretending he gettin' consciousness expansion. I want
    Consciousness expansion, I go to my local tabernacle
    An' I sing
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    You're absolutely right, in that the party in power gets the blame for the economy.

    However there is a narrative here. New PM, new broom, snap election in October. Message is "we hear you" on cost of living crisis -- cuts to fuel duty, nationalisation of gas supply, temporary cut in VAT etc.

    The onus would then be on Labour to see what their response would be.

    I do think the Conservatives' best chance of winning is to go for a snap election now on such a platform. No matter what policies are implemented to try to mitigate the crisis, the next couple of years are going to be horrific for most people's standard of living, so it may be the case they lose now by a little or cling on a little while longer and end up out of power for a generation.

    If I were Truss, I would be looking to go for a snap election this year. Might even stick a few quid on it. Current odds of 13/1 are quite tempting.
    The thing is she doesn't need an election to implement those policies. She can just do it.

    So I think the voters might wonder about why she's holding the election, and realise that if she's misleading them they have to wait five years before they get another chance to turf them out.

    I think that's one reason the election in 2017 went badly. It looked opportunistic rather than necessary. The same would be true now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,146
    darkage said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks so much for the sage advice. I really appreciate it.

    Jonathan

    I did see your post, but didn't have a chance to respond. I have of course just quit my job without anything to go to and without redundancy. However, two things:

    (1) that was partly because of the ridiculous notice rules in education, which means in effect there are only two times a year you can quit. I didn't want to get trapped in a difficult situation so I walked. I'm assuming that you wouldn't have crazy notice periods totally out of sync with what the real world wants.

    (2) although I left with only a modest safety net I also left with a definite plan for what I'm doing next (in fact, I've already started with tutoring and have a meeting on Monday about further options).

    In your shoes, unless you are utterly fed up with your company I would definitely take the pay rise unless you have another job lined up. That should in any case stand you in better stead if you are looking for another job when it comes to salary bargaining.

    That's my input. It's your life - use it or ignore it as you see fit!
    Many thanks.
    My own advice to anyone quitting a job is always part on good terms. Get a decent exit. Also, if you've not got another job, work on a story to tell the next employer either in your CV or in interviews. Go to great lengths to avoid giving the impression that you are damaged goods. This is connected to having a plan. If you don't have a plan, don't hurl yourself in to the unknown.
    That's good advice.

    I’ve always been sure to have a firm grasp on the next branch before letting go of the previous one, but leaving a job for a new one is always scary - you just have to be brave enough to do it.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,550
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic [email protected]! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    Cause the righteous truth is, there ain't nothing worse than
    Some fool lying on some Third World beach wearing
    Spandex, psychedelic trousers, smoking damn dope
    Pretending he gettin' consciousness expansion. I want
    Consciousness expansion, I go to my local tabernacle
    An' I sing
    Jason Donavon really went up his own fundament on that unreleased 4th album didn't he?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,936
    edited August 4

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    RIP Tories. No chance they win an election with a recession

    It would be fairly easy for Truss to win a snap election on a platform of, say, a temporary reduction in / suspension of fuel duty along with a temporary nationalisation of the UK gas supply with prices set at 2021 levels.

    Too expensive? How many billions did we spend on lockdowns, furlough, dodgy PPE and eat out to help out?

    The next election will be won on who has the best answers to the cost of living crisis. At the moment, I'm not sure that Labour are proposing anything better than the Conservatives.
    I would hope Rachel Reeves has an economic programme in her back pocket in the event of a snap election.

    There are so many Conservatives on here who are clinging to the hope that the economic catastrophe unfolding can be blamed on circumstances. I am unsure that it can. The incumbent is deemed responsible when one can't heat the home or put food on the table.

    But chin-up, there are two and a half years left for something to turn up.
    You're absolutely right, in that the party in power gets the blame for the economy.

    However there is a narrative here. New PM, new broom, snap election in October. Message is "we hear you" on cost of living crisis -- cuts to fuel duty, nationalisation of gas supply, temporary cut in VAT etc.

    The onus would then be on Labour to see what their response would be.

    I do think the Conservatives' best chance of winning is to go for a snap election now on such a platform. No matter what policies are implemented to try to mitigate the crisis, the next couple of years are going to be horrific for most people's standard of living, so it may be the case they lose now by a little or cling on a little while longer and end up out of power for a generation.

    If I were Truss, I would be looking to go for a snap election this year. Might even stick a few quid on it. Current odds of 13/1 are quite tempting.
    The thing is she doesn't need an election to implement those policies. She can just do it.

    So I think the voters might wonder about why she's holding the election, and realise that if she's misleading them they have to wait five years before they get another chance to turf them out.

    I think that's one reason the election in 2017 went badly. It looked opportunistic rather than necessary. The same would be true now.
    As I say above, no matter what policies are introduced to mitigate the cost of living crisis (short of full on, free owls for all, blank cheque helicopter stimulus money), it's still going to be pretty horrific.

    So no, she doesn't need an election to implement a fuel duty cut / gas nationalisation / etc plan, but she'll get a poll boost for doing so and could win an election off the back of it. New PM seeking renewed mandate doesn't feel opportunistic to me.

    As Horse says, it will be hard to win an election after five successive quarters of recession. So better to go to the country now - it's probably her best window of opportunity.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,414

    darkage said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks so much for the sage advice. I really appreciate it.

    Jonathan

    I did see your post, but didn't have a chance to respond. I have of course just quit my job without anything to go to and without redundancy. However, two things:

    (1) that was partly because of the ridiculous notice rules in education, which means in effect there are only two times a year you can quit. I didn't want to get trapped in a difficult situation so I walked. I'm assuming that you wouldn't have crazy notice periods totally out of sync with what the real world wants.

    (2) although I left with only a modest safety net I also left with a definite plan for what I'm doing next (in fact, I've already started with tutoring and have a meeting on Monday about further options).

    In your shoes, unless you are utterly fed up with your company I would definitely take the pay rise unless you have another job lined up. That should in any case stand you in better stead if you are looking for another job when it comes to salary bargaining.

    That's my input. It's your life - use it or ignore it as you see fit!
    Many thanks.
    My own advice to anyone quitting a job is always part on good terms. Get a decent exit. Also, if you've not got another job, work on a story to tell the next employer either in your CV or in interviews. Go to great lengths to avoid giving the impression that you are damaged goods. This is connected to having a plan. If you don't have a plan, don't hurl yourself in to the unknown.
    That's good advice.

    I’ve always been sure to have a firm grasp on the next branch before letting go of the previous one, but leaving a job for a new one is always scary - you just have to be brave enough to do it.

    Thanks. That fear is definitely made worse by having just 2 employers over a 20 year career and arguably successfully completing a traditional interview for a new role only once in that time. All the other career moves have been done outside of conventional recruitment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    About those woke teachers...

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1555157122958123010
    FL civics teachers are speaking out after attending DeSantis’s new mandatory 3-day ‘patriotic history’ indoctrination seminars. One example they cited was that students would be told Washington & Jefferson opposed slavery, while omitting the fact that they owned them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,911
    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,477

    darkage said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Thanks so much for the sage advice. I really appreciate it.

    Jonathan

    I did see your post, but didn't have a chance to respond. I have of course just quit my job without anything to go to and without redundancy. However, two things:

    (1) that was partly because of the ridiculous notice rules in education, which means in effect there are only two times a year you can quit. I didn't want to get trapped in a difficult situation so I walked. I'm assuming that you wouldn't have crazy notice periods totally out of sync with what the real world wants.

    (2) although I left with only a modest safety net I also left with a definite plan for what I'm doing next (in fact, I've already started with tutoring and have a meeting on Monday about further options).

    In your shoes, unless you are utterly fed up with your company I would definitely take the pay rise unless you have another job lined up. That should in any case stand you in better stead if you are looking for another job when it comes to salary bargaining.

    That's my input. It's your life - use it or ignore it as you see fit!
    Many thanks.
    My own advice to anyone quitting a job is always part on good terms. Get a decent exit. Also, if you've not got another job, work on a story to tell the next employer either in your CV or in interviews. Go to great lengths to avoid giving the impression that you are damaged goods. This is connected to having a plan. If you don't have a plan, don't hurl yourself in to the unknown.
    That's good advice.

    I’ve always been sure to have a firm grasp on the next branch before letting go of the previous one, but leaving a job for a new one is always scary - you just have to be brave enough to do it.

    The other side of this is that sometimes you have to just do it. If you are in a rabbit hole or whatever and there is an opportunity cost associated with hanging around. But you have to hold on until you have a realistic and viable plan.

    I quit my last job telling people that I would go freelance and see where it took me, and everyone thought I was completely mad. But actually I had thought it through and planned it all out in a lot of detail; and it has worked out unbelievably well. I'm seriously contemplating spending a week travelling around Norway working on my laptop next month, doing the whole rail network; and also spending time in Rome and Athens later in the year, just working on my laptop the whole time. All this has suddenly become possible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,368
    Short answer, no. If momentum was likely to change, maybe, but as OGH says no sign of that.

    If it did impact things, imagine the conspiracies that would abound.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,368
    In other news, this is almost positive in the dropping of pretence. Oh well, no doubt saying war is bad and people want peace should do it.

    “In the clearest sign that the referendums will go ahead … Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Russia had changed the geography in Ukraine, effectively redrawing its borders. He threatened that Moscow would claim even more Ukrainian territory unless the West stopped arming Kyiv.”

    What’s fascinating here is complete lack of pretence from Lavrov that this is anything other than an arbitrary land grab—nothing to do with protecting Russians, liberating Donbas etc. It’s 1930/40s style territorial aggrandisement. Chilling vision for Europe & has to be stopped.
    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350
    kle4 said:

    In other news, this is almost positive in the dropping of pretence. Oh well, no doubt saying war is bad and people want peace should do it.

    “In the clearest sign that the referendums will go ahead … Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Russia had changed the geography in Ukraine, effectively redrawing its borders. He threatened that Moscow would claim even more Ukrainian territory unless the West stopped arming Kyiv.”

    What’s fascinating here is complete lack of pretence from Lavrov that this is anything other than an arbitrary land grab—nothing to do with protecting Russians, liberating Donbas etc. It’s 1930/40s style territorial aggrandisement. Chilling vision for Europe & has to be stopped.
    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj

    What kind of lunatic wants to negotiate with that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,368
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

    It's what happens when an area with complex grey lines like 'what is a medical emergency' is treated as very simple, because the intentions behind the law are very black and white and have no wish to take account of complexities.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,286
    edited August 4
    Nigelb said:

    About those woke teachers...

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1555157122958123010
    FL civics teachers are speaking out after attending DeSantis’s new mandatory 3-day ‘patriotic history’ indoctrination seminars. One example they cited was that students would be told Washington & Jefferson opposed slavery, while omitting the fact that they owned them.

    This is an interesting account of Jefferson, about whom I know very little. It comments on another attempt to sanitise history books for children:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-dark-side-of-thomas-jefferson-35976004/

    'Weaving slavery into a narrative about Thomas Jefferson usually presents a challenge to authors, but one writer managed to spin this vicious attack and terrible punishment of a nailery boy into a charming plantation tale. In a 1941 biography of Jefferson for “young adults” (ages 12 to 16) the author wrote: “In this beehive of industry no discord or revilings found entrance: there were no signs of discontent on the black shining faces as they worked under the direction of their master....The women sang at their tasks and the children old enough to work made nails leisurely, not too overworked for a prank now and then.”

    It might seem unfair to mock the misconceptions and sappy prose of “a simpler era,” except that this book, The Way of an Eagle, and hundreds like it, shaped the attitudes of generations of readers about slavery and African-Americans. Time magazine chose it as one of the “important books” of 1941 in the children’s literature category, and it gained a second life in America’s libraries when it was reprinted in 1961 as Thomas Jefferson: Fighter for Freedom and Human Rights.'

    At least the 1940s book admitted that J owned slaves ... but perhaps the modern reluctance to admit it points to a greater understanding of guilt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    Nigelb said:

    About those woke teachers...

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1555157122958123010
    FL civics teachers are speaking out after attending DeSantis’s new mandatory 3-day ‘patriotic history’ indoctrination seminars. One example they cited was that students would be told Washington & Jefferson opposed slavery, while omitting the fact that they owned them.

    There also seems to be a strong tendency towards religious indoctrination in the DeSantis nonsense. Going after the separation of church and state is very much part of the new model Republican party playbook.

    See this link:
    https://twitter.com/BurkowskiJohnny/status/1555177950974189570
    Florida teacher and historian here. I took one of their presentations and did a peer review...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    kle4 said:

    In other news, this is almost positive in the dropping of pretence. Oh well, no doubt saying war is bad and people want peace should do it.

    “In the clearest sign that the referendums will go ahead … Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Russia had changed the geography in Ukraine, effectively redrawing its borders. He threatened that Moscow would claim even more Ukrainian territory unless the West stopped arming Kyiv.”

    What’s fascinating here is complete lack of pretence from Lavrov that this is anything other than an arbitrary land grab—nothing to do with protecting Russians, liberating Donbas etc. It’s 1930/40s style territorial aggrandisement. Chilling vision for Europe & has to be stopped.
    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj

    Jenkins refers to it as a "border dispute" in his Guardian article.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,889

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Give it up, it's over. The King is dead long live the Queen. All the Conservative MPs have now accepted La Truss, I think you need to see that the game is up.
    Through the covid fog I just cannot be bothered arguing about Johnson

    Indeed I do not feel much like arguing, as it is pointless as one of Sunak or Truss will be PM in early September
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,286

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Give it up, it's over. The King is dead long live the Queen. All the Conservative MPs have now accepted La Truss, I think you need to see that the game is up.
    Through the covid fog I just cannot be bothered arguing about Johnson

    Indeed I do not feel much like arguing, as it is pointless as one of Sunak or Truss will be PM in early September
    Poor you - get better soon, both of you.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:


    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.

    You're shifting the argument there.
    The back and forth was prompted by the Jenkins article. Which effectively argues for imposing a ceasefire against Ukraine's wishes.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the west should impose a decision to fight on Ukraine against its will. The reality is quite the opposite - we didn't start fully supporting them until they's demonstrated their determination to defeat the invasion.
    Didn't read the Jenkins article.

    Thing is, while I support the Ukrainian decision to fight (and die) on, we (the West) have imposed all kinds of situations on all kinds of countries and to impose a ceasefire (did he say who would police it?) would stop the dying at this point right now. Would it help to achieve Ukraine's aims? Probably not and hence I would on balance not be in favour of it.

    But right now we certainly aren't "fully supporting" Ukraine and hence we are in a way complicit in prolonging the war, with thousands of dead on each side.
    if you're arguing for increased weapons supply, then you agree with my position.

    And that of the Ukrainian government.
    There is a view that the US government wants to prolong the war to do maximum damage to Russia. A quick defeat for Russia might see them able to recover more quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

    It is indeed.

    Incidentally, Betfair has just put markets up for the Senate races.
    I want to see ones for the Governor elections - Texas might just be interesting.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,368
    edited August 4
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    Are you suggesting that the key criteria of a cult is how many people are followers? Christianity is safe there but a few other faiths might not qualify depending on where you set the line.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    What is @Leon's policy on the elderly? he isn't far off joining their ranks IIRC.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,044

    What is @Leon's policy on the elderly? he isn't far off joining their ranks IIRC.
    Doing them a favour and sending them to meet God.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
    If Truss proves a disaster, she may end up just keeping the seat warm until the return of Boris, the Prince across the Water
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:


    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.

    You're shifting the argument there.
    The back and forth was prompted by the Jenkins article. Which effectively argues for imposing a ceasefire against Ukraine's wishes.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that the west should impose a decision to fight on Ukraine against its will. The reality is quite the opposite - we didn't start fully supporting them until they's demonstrated their determination to defeat the invasion.
    Didn't read the Jenkins article.

    Thing is, while I support the Ukrainian decision to fight (and die) on, we (the West) have imposed all kinds of situations on all kinds of countries and to impose a ceasefire (did he say who would police it?) would stop the dying at this point right now. Would it help to achieve Ukraine's aims? Probably not and hence I would on balance not be in favour of it.

    But right now we certainly aren't "fully supporting" Ukraine and hence we are in a way complicit in prolonging the war, with thousands of dead on each side.
    if you're arguing for increased weapons supply, then you agree with my position.

    And that of the Ukrainian government.
    There is a view that the US government wants to prolong the war to do maximum damage to Russia. A quick defeat for Russia might see them able to recover more quickly.
    I've seen that, and don't buy it, though I suppose it's not impossible.

    I think there are two things in play. First there's Biden's natural caution; it's been pretty clear from the start that he's anxious to avoid a larger war which might escalate dangerously. Secondly, there's the deep reluctance of western military establishments to part with weapons which are in their current inventory.

    The first I'm grateful for (though the reluctance to send decent ground to air defence systems seems unjustified); the second is, I think, an unnecessarily tight constraint on the help we're offering.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,885
    edited August 4

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    So, odds on Truss calling an immediate GE?

    Whoever wins the leadership contest, they may well be thinking: better to go to the country with the excuse of needing a mandate for a new direction /now/ before the winter hits hard followed up by a year or more of grinding recession.

    Alternatively, two years is a long time. Maybe something will turn up & it’s better to have the guarantee of two years of power to steer the narrative?

    Thoughts?

    She would be mad to call a GE because she would lose it and become a byword for loserdom for the rest of time. if she sticks it out she gets 2 years vs 2 months as PM and the chance to hang on as LOTO, whereas if she goes early and loses she is toast.

    Ask again if the Tories have a 15% vi lead in September.
    What would be the point of electing Labour when they have nothing to say on the col? I'd be happy to give them a go, goodness knows the Tories seem tired, but what for? I cannot think of a single policy they have that would make the country better.
    They would find plenty to say in a snap GE campaign. Windfall taxes and nationalisations and wealth taxes.

    What Truss policy would make the country better
    Truss has signalled that she would prefer fields to be used for growing food rather than for solar panels - I realise her passion for BRITISH CHEESE and PORK MARKETS has been mocked, but I would very much support a pro-food security policy from her. We'll see what materialises. I also agree with amending the NIP unilaterally if other methods prove unfruitful - this is a fundamental issue of the integrity of the Kingdom for me. I don't see Labour sorting that one out. I also favour her pro-energy security agenda - greenlighting new North Sea Oil projects and looking at fracking again. That's again something we won't see from Labour.

    Obviously this is all leadership election fluff, but those things are at least a bit encouraging.
    "looking at fracking again"

    Fracking will only lose the Tories votes. Those fracking sites are nearly all Tory seats, a lot of them not very safe Tory seats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,395
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    The Christian cult which believes in physically attacking gay people does not have 2.8 billion members.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
    If Truss proves a disaster, she may end up just keeping the seat warm until the return of Boris, the Prince across the Water
    Boris vs Kemi would be an interesting match up...what would your view on that be?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    The Christian cult which believes in physically attacking gay people does not have 2.8 billion members.
    He was referring to the whole religion
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    About those woke teachers...

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1555157122958123010
    FL civics teachers are speaking out after attending DeSantis’s new mandatory 3-day ‘patriotic history’ indoctrination seminars. One example they cited was that students would be told Washington & Jefferson opposed slavery, while omitting the fact that they owned them.

    This is an interesting account of Jefferson, about whom I know very little. It comments on another attempt to sanitise history books for children:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-dark-side-of-thomas-jefferson-35976004/

    'Weaving slavery into a narrative about Thomas Jefferson usually presents a challenge to authors, but one writer managed to spin this vicious attack and terrible punishment of a nailery boy into a charming plantation tale. In a 1941 biography of Jefferson for “young adults” (ages 12 to 16) the author wrote: “In this beehive of industry no discord or revilings found entrance: there were no signs of discontent on the black shining faces as they worked under the direction of their master....The women sang at their tasks and the children old enough to work made nails leisurely, not too overworked for a prank now and then.”

    It might seem unfair to mock the misconceptions and sappy prose of “a simpler era,” except that this book, The Way of an Eagle, and hundreds like it, shaped the attitudes of generations of readers about slavery and African-Americans. Time magazine chose it as one of the “important books” of 1941 in the children’s literature category, and it gained a second life in America’s libraries when it was reprinted in 1961 as Thomas Jefferson: Fighter for Freedom and Human Rights.'

    At least the 1940s book admitted that J owned slaves ... but perhaps the modern reluctance to admit it points to a greater understanding of guilt.
    golly, that is riveting.

    "In another communication from the early 1790s, Jefferson takes the 4 percent formula further and quite bluntly advances the notion that slavery presented an investment strategy for the future. He writes that an acquaintance who had suffered financial reverses “should have been invested in negroes.” He advises that if the friend’s family had any cash left, “every farthing of it [should be] laid out in land and negroes, which besides a present support bring a silent profit of from 5. to 10. per cent in this country by the increase in their value.” "
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
    If Truss proves a disaster, she may end up just keeping the seat warm until the return of Boris, the Prince across the Water
    Boris vs Kemi would be an interesting match up...what would your view on that be?
    Boris as Trump, Kemi as DeSantis? Depends which of them got enough MPs to be the main candidate of the right, they would then win the membership vote
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

    It's what happens when a foetus is regarded as a human being rather than the mere possibility of being one.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    Are you suggesting that the key criteria of a cult is how many people are followers? Christianity is safe there but a few other faiths might not qualify depending on where you set the line.
    My understanding of the definition of a cult is not based on numbers. I am a (lapsed) Roman Catholic, but I think you can refer to Christianity as a cult when using a pure definition. That said the word "cult" is normally used in a pejorative way, so I can understand HYUFD being offended. When most people think of cults they think of the Moonies, or Scientology.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,185
    Back to 8 with Redfield

    Labour leads by 8%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (4 August):

    Labour 40% (+2)
    Conservative 32% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/-31 July

    https://t.co/cWevi4yeqM https://t.co/udqwubgukb
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523

    What is @Leon's policy on the elderly? he isn't far off joining their ranks IIRC.
    Doing them a favour and sending them to meet God.
    That is an odd way to thank them for delivering Brexit for him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,448
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    The Christian cult which believes in physically attacking gay people does not have 2.8 billion members.
    He was referring to the whole religion
    I was. Most Anglicans are in Africa thought and the vast majority of African Anglicans are homophobic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,889
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
    If Truss proves a disaster, she may end up just keeping the seat warm until the return of Boris, the Prince across the Water
    He is over just like I will be over covid shortly
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350
    edited August 4
    @HYUFD - if the majority of Tory members changed their mind on, say, grammar schools, so became against them, would you still support them?

    The way you post suggests not

    ETA - both "them" references being to grammar schools, not the Tories
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,185
    Truss retains a narrow lead over Starmer 37 to 35 with Redfield, Sunak adrift 39 32
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unless some scandal breaks about Truss in the next few weeks I doubt it makes much difference

    Strange that covid seems to have helped me decide that either is fine by me, but just get on with it

    At least they are not Boris who has gone absent on holiday and will not be missed by the public at large to whom he had become a complete liability
    33% of 2019 Conservative voters still want Boris to lead them compared to 26% for Truss and 24% for Sunak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11042775/And-favourite-Boris-Grassroots-backlash-putsch-growing.html

    Even amongst Tory members voting for Truss 49% would prefer Boris as PM to just 45% for Truss
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1554797759290642433?s=20&t=V6Qc_AZ5m8Y0FUL6hpgUWQ
    Proof positive that a percentage of people in this country are so thick that it is a sad indictment of our education system. Boris Johnson is a liar and an incompetent of such an extreme that he is completely unfit for office. I don't much like Truss, and Sunak fails to inspire me, but both have little chance of being as appalling as Johnson.
    If Truss proves a disaster, she may end up just keeping the seat warm until the return of Boris, the Prince across the Water
    Never going to happen, however much the loons may want it. The only thing Princely about "Boris" is his wife's taste in wallpaper.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,911
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

    It's what happens when an area with complex grey lines like 'what is a medical emergency' is treated as very simple, because the intentions behind the law are very black and white and have no wish to take account of complexities.
    I remain grateful that this debate is not a political one here, and continue to hope it’ll stay that way.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,368

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    Are you suggesting that the key criteria of a cult is how many people are followers? Christianity is safe there but a few other faiths might not qualify depending on where you set the line.
    My understanding of the definition of a cult is not based on numbers. I am a (lapsed) Roman Catholic, but I think you can refer to Christianity as a cult when using a pure definition. That said the word "cult" is normally used in a pejorative way, so I can understand HYUFD being offended. When most people think of cults they think of the Moonies, or Scientology.
    Oh its definitely used as a pejorative, I just didn't think he intended to imply the difference is purely one of numbers.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/04/sandi-toksvig-lives-at-stake-anti-gay-anglican-church-declaration-justin-welby

    Sandi Toksvig:

    “I have had several credible death threats over the years, sometimes requiring the very kind assistance of the police hate crime squad.

    “Each and every one of those threats has come from an evangelical Christian. Inevitably they have wanted to kill me on God’s behalf.”

    And if this gets death threats over here, imagine what it will do in Nigeria.

    Odd stance for a cult based around an overtly homosexual shaman to take.

    Some cult which has 2.8 billion members
    The Christian cult which believes in physically attacking gay people does not have 2.8 billion members.
    He was referring to the whole religion
    Or all makers of diary products.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,911
    eek said:

    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Texas abortion law is cruel and irrational, and a danger to pregnant women's lives.
    Medical complications which threaten the life of pregnant women are not rare.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/03/texas-abortion-law-pregnancy/
    ...The crisis the Wellers endured is emblematic of the vast and perhaps unintended medical impacts of the criminalization of abortion in Republican-led states. The new abortion bans — or the old laws being resurrected in a post-Roe world — are rigidly written and untested in the courts. Many offer no exemptions for rape, incest, or fetal anomalies.

    But the most confusing development involves the exemptions that exist for the woman’s life or health, or because of a “medical emergency.” These terms are left vague or undefined.

    The result has been disarray and confusion for doctors and hospitals in multiple states, and risky delays and complications for patients facing obstetric conditions such as ectopic pregnancies, incomplete miscarriages, placental problems, and premature rupture of membranes...

    ...“I can tell that she’s been beat down, because she has been trying to fight for me all day, advocating on my behalf,” Elizabeth said. “And she starts to cry, and she tells me: ‘They’re not going to touch you.’ And that ‘you can either stay here and wait to get sick where we can monitor you, or we discharge you and you monitor yourself. Or you wait till your baby’s heartbeat stops.’”

    It was because of the state law that forbids termination of a pregnancy as long as there is fetal cardiac activity. The law, which remains in effect, does contain one exception — for a “medical emergency.” But the statute doesn’t define that term. No one really knows what the legislature meant by that, and doctors are afraid of overstepping.

    To Elizabeth, it seemed obvious that things were deteriorating. She had cramps and was passing clots of blood. Her discharge was yellow and smelled weird. But hospital staffers told her those weren’t the right symptoms yet...

    Jesus. That’s inhuman.

    It's what happens when a foetus is regarded as a human being rather than the mere possibility of being one.
    Indeed. I have watched my wife go through a miscarriage. Layering on to that a doctor having to say “and if it starts to go horribly wrong, and you’re at risk, we can do nothing” would be unthinkable.
This discussion has been closed.