I for one am happy to confirm that, although I think Liz Truss is a fake and a lightweight, she is nonetheless considerably more talented than Dominic Raab.
An NFT of your avatar is considerably more talented than Dominic Raab.
So after Truss completely destroys UK EU relations , starts a trade war , she’ll remove the UK from the ECHR and will continue the divisive politics of the last few years .
What a desperate state of affairs that after Johnson we’re going to get the same but with zero laughs .
Teachers starting salaries outside London to rise by 8.9%. These are higher figures than I was expecting.
The new leader will definitely not want to start their Premiership with a new winter of discontent.
Indeed. But not sure they aren't to come out of existing budgets? A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding suggests they can't be, can they?
I found those numbers really hard to reconcile. Unless there is going to be a significant increase in the pupil count and larger classes?
Yes, but that will be Somebody Else's Fault. Namely, the Academy Trusts that run lots of schools and councils that run the others.
(The big rise at the bottom of the payscale was on the cards all along- it was part of the 2019 manifesto to improve teacher recruitment by increasing the starting salary to 30k. Rather lost its impact, thanks to inflation, and recruitment for teacher training looks dire.)
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
I'm in the sweet spot now. Big icy bottle of Moretti very shortly.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
Not meaning to cast nasturtiums, but you're proposing to raise interest rates on the eve of a recession, which would hit homeowners with mortgages pretty hard. And which would almost certainly make any recession worse.
It'd be taking money from the young (who have debts) and handing it to the old (who have interest earning deposits).
It would make housing more affordable (helping young people) and it would bring down asset prices (hurting older ones) and ideally bring down housing prices substantially (hurting landlords, mostly older people).
Inflation hurts working age people because wages don't keep up with inflation, older people who have pensions will get their 9-11% rise from the government or defined benefit pension. Bringing the rate of inflation down will benefit working age people who are currently dealing with -2% real wage contraction and rising, especially among the lower paid.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
The rain belt now approaching Worcester - Oxford - Chichester ; but we’re supposedly on the tail end of it now, and here at least it didn’t amount to much; it’s still just as hot afterwards.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
I agree with the point, though she was actually not in Cabinet 2017-2019. She was as good as in Cabinet since she was Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who attends Cabinet, but not technically front bench I think.
Clutching at straws I know - but if you look at the Con MPs ballots - the person 2nd last in every ballot so far has always come last in the following ballot.
ie the order of candidates has never changed.
(Braverman was obviously 3rd last in Round 1 but two were eliminated so amounts to the same thing).
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Cabinet of the Damned is a wonderful turn of phrase.
Do we know if Zahawi is still under investigation for tax fraud?
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Of course, we get the MPs we vote for...
People vote for any old prannock if they have the right colour rosette. But that is ok - its a good thing having independently-minded back benchers. The problem is when they promoted for absurd fealty and end up in it way over their heads.#
The Tories do still have some credible MPs. They don't need to appoint these idiots to high office.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
There is a kernel of sanity to this insane concept. In normal times, parties would select a leader and then fight an election with them. This has ended with the Tories - we're about to have our 4th PM in 6 years. Having had a pair of rerun general elections because the government was unhappy with the result of the previous one.
So yes, why not. They can run through until 2025, and why not stick another change of PM through, back come Boris, who spaffs out a load of Christmas cheer from his sack in a Christmas election campaign.
This seems unusually incoherent. The last two Tory PMs elected midterm have fought an election sooner than needed (unlike the last such Labour PM) and it's a very long time since a PM never fought an election.
The last Labour PM avoided an election and then lost.
The 2 subsequent Tory PM's have fought early elections and remained in power.
Truss could be advised to find as many sweeties as possible and call an election ASAP after all it worked for the last 2 PM's so should work again.
And it's a long time since a Government through choice stayed for all 5 years and then won an election.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Truss has been ever present in the Cabinet under three successive Prime administers. She's more Jack Straw than Bob Ainsworth.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Cabinet of the Damned is a wonderful turn of phrase.
Do we know if Zahawi is still under investigation for tax fraud?
Unkind. The money was only resting in his account.
"Met Office @metoffice At least 29 observation sites across England have provisionally broken the previous all time maximum UK record of 38.7 °C this afternoon."
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Cabinet of the Damned is a wonderful turn of phrase.
Do we know if Zahawi is still under investigation for tax fraud?
Unkind. The money was only resting in his account.
Clutching at straws I know - but if you look at the Con MPs ballots - the person 2nd last in every ballot so far has always come last in the following ballot.
ie the order of candidates has never changed.
(Braverman was obviously 3rd last in Round 1 but two were eliminated so amounts to the same thing).
Never been this close between second to last and third to last though.
Truss started 17 behind Mordaunt and is now only 6 behind. Given how Badenoch has been focusing on Mordaunt over equalities stuff, the latter had better hope the former's backers are less concerned by that as Kemi is.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
You said "I reckon we will see a max of 39.8C, somewhere around London or Cambs
So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
I said:
"Met Office has Bawtry showing 41°C (headline figure) and 40°C (hourly detail*) for tomorrow.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
Every PB’er knows your game. The remarkable thing is that you keep at it, in front of a knowing audience.
"Met Office @metoffice At least 29 observation sites across England have provisionally broken the previous all time maximum UK record of 38.7 °C this afternoon."
I see that that thread has the obligtory Faragist claiming that these are all an elaborate network of climate change hoaxes, somewhere near the top, there.
Fight the "MSM", and "Klaus Schwab's build back better conspiracy" !
How does Mordaunt get 40% of the Badenoch vote after her paltry take from Tom ?!
The great unknown is what games (if any) were played in this round to get Truss through and Badenoch out.
I don’t think any games were played. I think outside the fevered imaginations of some online, Badenoch was an obviously inexperienced candidate with an unappealing attempt to outflank Truss on the right.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
The key phrase right there. Being more substantial than Grant Shapps does not make you a substantial political figure.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
Cabinet of the Damned is a wonderful turn of phrase.
Do we know if Zahawi is still under investigation for tax fraud?
Unkind. The money was only resting in his account.
The shares now belong to an recently created offshore trust for security purposes...
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
Charterhall, old Raff base, in the low farming Merse - the Duns area. Hills around. Very near border, so that may be it, but could it be a fohn with the hills around?
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Don't the French or someone have a system whereby value can be self-reported but if people under report it then it can be compulsory purchased at 10% above that value?
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
At the last debate the candidates were all saying how fucked the country is. Well, who’s been in power for 12 years? Who do we blame? Who’s put taxes up to a 70 year high? Who’s burned the bridges with our neighbours and closest trading partners, with its associated baleful impact on the economy? Who’s splintered the UK? Truss’ fingerprints are all over the messes of the past few inept, hapless governments.
I’ve dropped more substantial logs down the shitter.
The fact that she’s occupied those offices throws into stark relief the declining quality of the Tory party.
I mean, I thought Corbyn was shit but at least he had principles and stuck to them, no matter how wrongheaded he was. Truss is some emotionless power-crazed automaton, cheerfully abandoning any principle she may have had in the pursuit of power. She’s dangerous.
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
I wasn't around then, naturally, but it seems to me that "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" and "all muscle" aren't the same thing.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Capital gains tax on all properties including primary residence with some allowances (eg. partial offset against buying another primary residence and a taper) would be even better.
Now this race is at the true business end of affairs the question facing Conservative MP's is will ideological purity trump political pragmatism and the possibility of the retention of power.
Truss is IDS on steroids with no chance. A full blown disaster and the greatest gift to the Labour in decades. In good times she might have restricted Labour to a modest win. In the present and future economic crisis she is a walking talking Labour landslide.
Sunak is the Mr Slick and Smarmy of the race. A (multi-million)poundland David Cameron that already finds himself in bad odour with the membership and who has provided Labour with an arsenal of opportunity.
Leaving us with the flawed PM4PM. The least worst of the Three (non) Amigos. I like the back story and the resilience she has shown from the onslaught of friendly fire and the disgusting Daily Mail. Imagine if Mordaunt had been the former LibDem, republican and arch remainer like Truss ?!?! ... Mordaunt provides the Tories with a chance - a sporting chance to avert disaster.
Will the Tories take the chance or is IDS Mk II - From the "Quiet Man" to the "Quiet Woman" and not a transgender moment in sight. Someone turn up the volume on this post !!!!
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Don't the French or someone have a system whereby value can be self-reported but if people under report it then it can be compulsory purchased at 10% above that value?
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
The trouble with that is, I read "land owner's tax" and think "that will just get passed on to the tenants".
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
At the last debate the candidates were all saying how fucked the country is. Well, who’s been in power for 12 years? Who do we blame? Who’s put taxes up to a 70 year high? Who’s burned the bridges with our neighbours and closest trading partners, with its associated baleful impact on the economy? Who’s splintered the UK? Truss’ fingerprints are all over the messes of the past few inept, hapless governments.
I’ve dropped more substantial logs down the shitter.
The fact that she’s occupied those offices throws into stark relief the declining quality of the Tory party.
I mean, I thought Corbyn was shit but at least he had principles and stuck to them, no matter how wrongheaded he was. Truss is some emotionless power-crazed automaton, cheerfully abandoning any principle she may have had in the pursuit of power. She’s dangerous.
I'm not sure any of that counters the points that she has been one of the most substantial of this generation of MPs.
Maybe it's just been a terrible generation, but getting into high office so soon and staying there does make her a substantial figure, relative to her fellow Tory MPs.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
Good afternoon/evening
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
Indeed the car was the safe refuge with its air cond, but at our hotel just now it is stifling, uncomfortable and just not the Scotland we know and love
Utterly drained with no end in sight, I turn on the news to see the conservative party determined to vote for it's Johnson tribute act rather than the only one, notwithstanding his faults, that at least knows what he is doing
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
"So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
which is technically correct of course - the record has been broken but it is not 40C that has taken it but a higher number. Leon is a great tipster and is INFALLABLE .
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
Actually I read that message and you are misrepresenting it. What was said was that Boris Johnson did look overweight enough to be 18 stone (you said he didn't). The muscle point is because you wrongly claimed 18 stone would be much more obese than he is.
You're wrong, for an active obese individual that shape is right for 18 stone. The muscle point is because all obese people carry much more muscles than non obese people do, unless they're bed bound.
If you think about it, he's about six stone overweight and if you put on a six stone backpack on every single time you moved anywhere, you'd rapidly gain muscles too. All obese people have more muscles, thus more weight, than you'd expect. Obese people who lose weight lose muscles too.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Don't the French or someone have a system whereby value can be self-reported but if people under report it then it can be compulsory purchased at 10% above that value?
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
I may also be wrong, but I understand that under Scottish contracts, there is a provision used for "in perpetuity" that refers to "whilst ever there is snow on Ben Nevis". It may be that some contracts are going to unexpectedly terminate....
To be in final two 1.03 Rishi Sunak 97% 1.18 Liz Truss 85% 4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%
Truss back in a bit. A cynic wonders if someone has dropped a tenner on Starmer to make Cruddas's Boris-reinstatement plan seem plausible even if not sane. Has anyone here lent Boris a tenner?
Betfair next prime minister 2.06 Liz Truss 49% 2.58 Rishi Sunak 39% 8.2 Penny Mordaunt 12% 110 Keir Starmer 420 Dominic Raab
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
Yes I remember that, but it was someone who named himself after an Anfield legend. Emlyn Hughes?
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
"So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
which is technically correct of course - the record has been broken but it is not 40C that has taken it but a higher number. Leon is a great tipster and is INFALLABLE .
@Leon is currently trawling through pages of PB posts trying to find something suitable to respond with.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Here in Barnes it is currently 40° + 23% humidity outside and 34° + 33% humidity inside. Still feels warm Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Don't the French or someone have a system whereby value can be self-reported but if people under report it then it can be compulsory purchased at 10% above that value?
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
The trouble with that is, I read "land owner's tax" and think "that will just get passed on to the tenants".
Aye it probably will. But Council Tax already is, hence why it should be done while abolishing Council Tax and Stamp Duty.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
I may also be wrong, but I understand that under Scottish contracts, there is a provision used for "in perpetuity" that refers to "whilst ever there is snow on Ben Nevis". It may be that some contracts are going to unexpectedly terminate....
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
Good afternoon/evening
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
Indeed the car was the safe refuge with its air cond, but at our hotel just now it is stifling, uncomfortable and just not the Scotland we know and love
Utterly drained with no end in sight, I turn on the news to see the conservative party determined to vote for it's Johnson tribute act rather than the only one, notwithstanding his faults, that at least knows what he is doing
Very sad
It should be low 20s for you tomorrow Big_G, so hopefully much better.
No positive forecast available for the Conservative Party though, I'm afraid.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Capital gains tax on all properties including primary residence with some allowances (eg. partial offset against buying another primary residence and a taper) would be even better.
Capital gains tax as currently applied to property would be a bad idea on primary residence as the CGT on residential property is not index linked. You bought you house in 1980 so the difference between unindexed purchase and sale price is 99%.
Equally capital gain taxes are one off events - this was designed to be an unavoidable continual source of tax revenue.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Here in Barnes it is currently 40° + 23% humidity outside and 34° + 33% humidity inside. Still feels warm Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
That wet towel might be adding to the humidity ;-)
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Here in Barnes it is currently 40° + 23% humidity outside and 34° + 33% humidity inside. Still feels warm Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
Should very shortly be heading around to around 35-36, within the next hour or so.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
"So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
which is technically correct of course - the record has been broken but it is not 40C that has taken it but a higher number. Leon is a great tipster and is INFALLABLE .
@Leon is currently trawling through pages of PB posts trying to find something suitable to respond with.
(Spoiler, there's a lot he could use.)
lol. I was just beginning to do exactly that1 Then I thought: what a waste of half an hour. I already know I'm right
I make some good and predictions on PB, but I am content that this was a good one - beginning about 8 days before. And that is thanks to @TimS who first mentioned these models
Talking of which one of the big winners here is the model GFS which first saw this dramatic heatwave coming more than two weeks ago, and which barely budged from its predictions, despite much derision and pushback, and now it is completely vindicated. Superb accuracy. Perhaps weather modelling is getting better, or the weather is getting easier to forecast- or both?
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
Land value taxes are hard to calculate easily - remember we scrapped rates for the poll tax partly because revaluation was a mare. We then introduced Council tax but again we haven't had a revaluation because it would be a mare.
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Don't the French or someone have a system whereby value can be self-reported but if people under report it then it can be compulsory purchased at 10% above that value?
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
The trouble with that is, I read "land owner's tax" and think "that will just get passed on to the tenants".
Aye it probably will. But Council Tax already is, hence why it should be done while abolishing Council Tax and Stamp Duty.
It is in England and Scotland but only for more expensive properties in Northern Ireland. Anyone know why the landlord pays it for cheaper rental property in NI?
Walked to the corner shop and back just after 5pm - only in Las Vegas and Singapore have I experienced heat like that (and I was on the shaded side of the street). Potentially very dangerous and thankfully only a few other idiots like me out and about.
This is a 48-hour hot snap - what happens if the next one is 5 days or longer? I can only hope more sensible people like Mrs Stodge have heeded the warnings and stayed indoors. As the cooler air arrives with higher humidity I suspect it will be even more unpleasant for a short period.
I do wonder if instead of proposing tax cuts we can't afford, a "summer cooling allowance" might be an option - all right, it's a barely formulated half-idea but it would fit well in the current Conservative leadership campaign?
Grant Shapps has at least conceded upgrading the nation's infrastructure to deal with this kind of heat won't be cheap - presumably we can use of the huge amounts being pledged for defence not that'll be of much use if your tanks and planes get stuck on melted asphalt.
Badenoch has earned herself a "serious job" in the next cabinet and you'd think in the event of a Conservative defeat next time, she'd be a shoo-in to be the LOTO. That said, from being a blank state on which anyone can project anything, she's not shown the surest of touches and again today failed to attract large numbers of votes from other candidates but as we all know elections are often more about making sure who doesn't win.
The Sunakans, Mordauntists and Trussites will all now scrap for the crumbs from Badenoch's table safe in the knowledge they'll be serving under her down the road - the favours you do now will earn you dividends later as a wise man once said, actually me, just now.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
Good afternoon/evening
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
Indeed the car was the safe refuge with its air cond, but at our hotel just now it is stifling, uncomfortable and just not the Scotland we know and love
Utterly drained with no end in sight, I turn on the news to see the conservative party determined to vote for it's Johnson tribute act rather than the only one, notwithstanding his faults, that at least knows what he is doing
Very sad
It should be low 20s for you tomorrow Big_G, so hopefully much better.
No positive forecast available for the Conservative Party though, I'm afraid.
Yes seems so with several thunder storms tonight here in Scotland
As far as the conservative party is concerned if they want to lose the next election they seem to be onto a winner
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
I wasn't around then, naturally, but it seems to me that "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" and "all muscle" aren't the same thing.
Indeed.
Also it wasn't unusual high muscle to fat ratio that was claimed, it was more muscle than most people will have due it which was said, which is something that all active obese people have.
An average obese individual who does minimal exercise will have more muscles than a professional featherweight boxer does. Why? Because carrying and moving all that fat is exercise that takes muscles, especially in your legs.
Merely standing up while six stone overweight is an exercise in it's own right. Try walking around with a six stone backpack on and see how easy it is.
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
You drove for miles and miles looking out at exactly the same view, save for the occasional kangaroo foolishly trying to cross the road, and the drivers of cars coming the other way lifted a finger off the wheel in recognition of your mutual adventure into the unknown?
Around 8pm tonight looks like the big drop - up to 6 degrees in places. It should start to feel far cooler by about 7-30 in a lot of places, and then all over for now - although still a very hot night ,'till the early hours.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Here in Barnes it is currently 40° + 23% humidity outside and 34° + 33% humidity inside. Still feels warm Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
That wet towel might be adding to the humidity ;-)
Breaking - hottest ever day for Scotland, official.
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
You drove for miles and miles looking out at exactly the same view, save for the occasional kangaroo foolishly trying to cross the road, and the drivers of cars coming the other way lifted a finger off the wheel in recognition of your mutual adventure into the unknown?
Well, they do have wild wallabies in Scotland. Or used to.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
I made one precise prediction about this heatwave. That was it
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
When you go to the casino I reckon you put chips on every number…
Feel free to find any prediction about heatwave temps, made by me, other than the one I state
"So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
which is technically correct of course - the record has been broken but it is not 40C that has taken it but a higher number. Leon is a great tipster and is INFALLABLE .
@Leon is currently trawling through pages of PB posts trying to find something suitable to respond with.
(Spoiler, there's a lot he could use.)
lol. I was just beginning to do exactly that1 Then I thought: what a waste of half an hour. I already know I'm right
I make some good and predictions on PB, but I am content that this was a good one - beginning about 8 days before. And that is thanks to @TimS who first mentioned these models
Talking of which one of the big winners here is the model GFS which first saw this dramatic heatwave coming more than two weeks ago, and which barely budged from its predictions, despite much derision and pushback, and now it is completely vindicated. Superb accuracy. Perhaps weather modelling is getting better, or the weather is getting easier to forecast- or both?
In the interests of fairness, my prediction was:
"Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course."
The second sentence having the added frisson of being logically impossible.
Around 8pm tonight looks like the big drop - up to 6 degrees in places. It should start to feel far cooler by about 7-30 in a lot of places, and then all over for now - although still a very hot night 'till the early hours.
We have a chilly spell ahead for the weekend of (checks) 25°C each day. That'll do nicely.
Well, let me start by saying that I don't believe that Sunak lent votes to Truss. If he'd been on 140, then maybe he might have gently lent on some of his more fervent supporters. But he wasn't he was (and remains) still shy of the magic 120 level, and therefore I don't think any games were played.
And... Tory MPs are much less factional than people think. Who'da thunk that Truss would have gotten so many TT votes?
So, how the Badenoch vote splits is not necessarily going to be as obvious as it looks. I mean, in theory, it's all hardcore diamond Brexit, etc., folk. But - as others have noted - I think quite a few of them went for her because she had characteristics sadly lacking in some of her competitors: like being an actual human being with actual ideas.
With that said, Sunak is still clear favorite to make it to the members. But yesterday I said 99%. It's probably not 99% any more. It may very well be more like 95% now. I simply don't see that many Badenoch supporters standing up for Sunak. That said, he doesn't need many votes to make the 120. Could he lose a few to Penny or Truss? Yep. But it's not that likely.
Truss only needs to get six more of Badenoch's votes to jump over Mordaunt. But then again, Mordaunt scores better on "human" and "electable", than Truss. Albeit worse on "obvious lying" and "having views that resonate with members on trans rights."
I'm waffling here because I think the odds are broadly right. Truss *probably* will leapfrog Mordaunt. Rishi probably will make it north of 120 (albeit not by much). And Truss has to be narrow favourite amongst the members.
Still: if I were to make a small wager here, it would be to continue the most profitable betting strategy in all most Conservative leadership elections, and sell the favourite.
* all markets except the 2019 Bozo election...
I sold BoJo twice during the 2019 leadership election and rebacked at longer odds.
Once when he first declared when no one else had and was too short. Second time after domestic disturbance gate when the market over reacted.
Walked to the corner shop and back just after 5pm - only in Las Vegas and Singapore have I experienced heat like that (and I was on the shaded side of the street). Potentially very dangerous and thankfully only a few other idiots like me out and about.
This is a 48-hour hot snap - what happens if the next one is 5 days or longer? I can only hope more sensible people like Mrs Stodge have heeded the warnings and stayed indoors. As the cooler air arrives with higher humidity I suspect it will be even more unpleasant for a short period.
I do wonder if instead of proposing tax cuts we can't afford, a "summer cooling allowance" might be an option - all right, it's a barely formulated half-idea but it would fit well in the current Conservative leadership campaign?
Grant Shapps has at least conceded upgrading the nation's infrastructure to deal with this kind of heat won't be cheap - presumably we can use of the huge amounts being pledged for defence not that'll be of much use if your tanks and planes get stuck on melted asphalt.
Badenoch has earned herself a "serious job" in the next cabinet and you'd think in the event of a Conservative defeat next time, she'd be a shoo-in to be the LOTO. That said, from being a blank state on which anyone can project anything, she's not shown the surest of touches and again today failed to attract large numbers of votes from other candidates but as we all know elections are often more about making sure who doesn't win.
The Sunakans, Mordauntists and Trussites will all now scrap for the crumbs from Badenoch's table safe in the knowledge they'll be serving under her down the road - the favours you do now will earn you dividends later as a wise man once said, actually me, just now.
I reckon Badenoch is on the backbenches or exiled to NI if it is PM as PM.
The problem with CGT on property is it only harms those who move and is exceptionally easy to avoid if you don't even while cashing in on your capital gains.
People can cash out gains by remortgaging paying then only interest payments while avoiding the tax as the gain isn't officially "realised".
No that's talent. Genius would be to win an election on a manifesto which is true and honest, address the problems holistically, have a plan and achieve it in five years while winning the next one.
(Arthur Schopenhauer: “Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.”)
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
I wasn't around then, naturally, but it seems to me that "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" and "all muscle" aren't the same thing.
Indeed.
Also it wasn't unusual high muscle to fat ratio that was claimed, it was more muscle than most people will have due it which was said, which is something that all active obese people have.
An average obese individual who does minimal exercise will have more muscles than a professional featherweight boxer does. Why? Because carrying and moving all that fat is exercise that takes muscles, especially in your legs.
Merely standing up while six stone overweight is an exercise in it's own right. Try walking around with a six stone backpack on and see how easy it is.
A lithe athlete sporting not so much a "six pack" as a " party seven"!
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
I wasn't around then, naturally, but it seems to me that "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" and "all muscle" aren't the same thing.
Indeed.
Also it wasn't unusual high muscle to fat ratio that was claimed, it was more muscle than most people will have due it which was said, which is something that all active obese people have.
An average obese individual who does minimal exercise will have more muscles than a professional featherweight boxer does. Why? Because carrying and moving all that fat is exercise that takes muscles, especially in your legs.
Merely standing up while six stone overweight is an exercise in it's own right. Try walking around with a six stone backpack on and see how easy it is.
A lithe athlete sporting not so much a "six pack" as a " party seven"!
Only @kinabalu etc ever said anything about athletic.
Some people ignorantly think muscle = healthy. It doesn't. Obese people carry too much fat AND too much muscle, as opposed to too much fat but not enough muscle. Obese people who become healthy will shed muscle mass as they do.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Humidity increase, as the front approaches.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Here in Barnes it is currently 40° + 23% humidity outside and 34° + 33% humidity inside. Still feels warm Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
Wet towel? You want something light from which water can evaporate and cool your bonce. A towel might be too thick, especially if you are hairy. Also, you might do better concentrating on your jugular (but don't strangle yourself) and/or wrists (ie cool the blood where veins are close to the surface) if you cut up your wet towel into thin bands. Or sit in a lukewarm bath for a bit.
Still 38C outside and 34C in my flat - creeping up inside
I really would like the hot weather to fuck off now
Definitely warmer inside than outside here now. Unfortunately outside has the sound of my neighbours listening to Eggheads at cacophonous volume. Cloud cover now, but no sign of rain yet.
Still 38C outside and 34C in my flat - creeping up inside
I really would like the hot weather to fuck off now
On my second pre-dinner drink in an air-conditioned chain hotel near Manchester airport. £48 per night. Good day of work done.
(Two pre-dinner drinks required to smooth out the mediocre dinner, you understand)
I have a friend who enjoys "pre drinks drinks"
ie if I meet him for a drink he likes to get there half an hour beforehand, for a drink, to get him in the right mood for having a drink
The opposite used to drive me nuts in Italy.
Have a plan to go to bar. Get to bar. Oh, do we want to go in there? Spend the time it would take to consume a drink and decide standing outside deciding. Go in.
Remember when somebody said Johnson was all muscle ROFL
No.
That's because you weren't around back then.
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never will having bequeathed us this gem.
I wasn't around then, naturally, but it seems to me that "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" and "all muscle" aren't the same thing.
Comments
I landed at Coningsby as a student pilot once, the instructor said it had a runway so big that even I couldn’t miss it
What a desperate state of affairs that after Johnson we’re going to get the same but with zero laughs .
The country is fxcked !
(The big rise at the bottom of the payscale was on the cards all along- it was part of the 2019 manifesto to improve teacher recruitment by increasing the starting salary to 30k. Rather lost its impact, thanks to inflation, and recruitment for teacher training looks dire.)
Apart from this I gave probabilities - eg 50% chance of breaking the record, 30% chance of hitting 40C. Etc. Probabilities which, IIRC, were closer to the case than yours
Inflation hurts working age people because wages don't keep up with inflation, older people who have pensions will get their 9-11% rise from the government or defined benefit pension. Bringing the rate of inflation down will benefit working age people who are currently dealing with -2% real wage contraction and rising, especially among the lower paid.
IDS syndrome.
This is the cabinet of the damned. Like the end of Brown with nonentities like Bob Ainsworth or the end of the Major era with Roger Freeman.
ie the order of candidates has never changed.
(Braverman was obviously 3rd last in Round 1 but two were eliminated so amounts to the same thing).
Do we know if Zahawi is still under investigation for tax fraud?
Why am I not surprised?
Whether she'll manage once she's PM is another question.
The Tories do still have some credible MPs. They don't need to appoint these idiots to high office.
The 2 subsequent Tory PM's have fought early elections and remained in power.
Truss could be advised to find as many sweeties as possible and call an election ASAP after all it worked for the last 2 PM's so should work again.
And it's a long time since a Government through choice stayed for all 5 years and then won an election.
@metoffice
At least 29 observation sites across England have provisionally broken the previous all time maximum UK record of 38.7 °C this afternoon."
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1549421924052246534
Truss started 17 behind Mordaunt and is now only 6 behind. Given how Badenoch has been focusing on Mordaunt over equalities stuff, the latter had better hope the former's backers are less concerned by that as Kemi is.
So the record will be broken, but not 40C"
I said:
"Met Office has Bawtry showing 41°C (headline figure) and 40°C (hourly detail*) for tomorrow.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrrbygd0#?date=2022-07-19
Both the UK record and 40°C likely to be broken imo.
Why didn't @Leon warn us?!
(*It's usual and indeed reasonable for the headline figure to be higher than the hourly figure.)"
I think it was topping 10C, although that may be wrong?
A wealth tax based on recorded house prices doesn't have that difficulty. Take the last sale price, run a calculation based on current prices and you are good to go..
Fight the "MSM", and "Klaus Schwab's build back better conspiracy" !
What started it was this poster - Philip Tompkins? - who in all seriousness said Boris Johnson didn't look as obese as you'd expect for a man of 5 foot 7 weighing nearly 18 stone because he had an "unusually high muscle to fat ratio" from all the running and cycling. Also "good strong legs".
It was one of the most remarkable pieces of punditry seen on here in recent times. The author has since left us, sadly, but in a sense he never
will having bequeathed us this gem.
Sunak 118 (+0)
Mordaunt 119 (+27)
Truss 118 (+32)
Although there was a spoiled ballot...
Should work to prevent abuses.
Abolish Council Tax and stamp duty and replace with a land owners tax. Tax land, they're not making it anymore.
At the last debate the candidates were all saying how fucked the country is. Well, who’s been in power for 12 years? Who do we blame? Who’s put taxes up to a 70 year high? Who’s burned the bridges with our neighbours and closest trading partners, with its associated baleful impact on the economy? Who’s splintered the UK? Truss’ fingerprints are all over the messes of the past few inept, hapless governments.
I’ve dropped more substantial logs down the shitter.
The fact that she’s occupied those offices throws into stark relief the declining quality of the Tory party.
I mean, I thought Corbyn was shit but at least he had principles and stuck to them, no matter how wrongheaded he was. Truss is some emotionless power-crazed automaton, cheerfully abandoning any principle she may have had in the pursuit of power. She’s dangerous.
Truss is IDS on steroids with no chance. A full blown disaster and the greatest gift to the Labour in decades. In good times she might have restricted Labour to a modest win. In the present and future economic crisis she is a walking talking Labour landslide.
Sunak is the Mr Slick and Smarmy of the race. A (multi-million)poundland David Cameron that already finds himself in bad odour with the membership and who has provided Labour with an arsenal of opportunity.
Leaving us with the flawed PM4PM. The least worst of the Three (non) Amigos. I like the back story and the resilience she has shown from the onslaught of friendly fire and the disgusting Daily Mail. Imagine if Mordaunt had been the former LibDem, republican and arch remainer like Truss ?!?! ... Mordaunt provides the Tories with a chance - a sporting chance to avert disaster.
Will the Tories take the chance or is IDS Mk II - From the "Quiet Man" to the "Quiet Woman" and not a transgender moment in sight. Someone turn up the volume on this post !!!!
Maybe it's just been a terrible generation, but getting into high office so soon and staying there does make her a substantial figure, relative to her fellow Tory MPs.
We have driven from Llandudno to Pitlochry today in extraordinary temperatures, and when stopping at service stations all along the route it reminded me of our time driving In Australia, especially around Alice Springs with the unbearable heat
Indeed the car was the safe refuge with its air cond, but at our hotel just now it is stifling, uncomfortable and just not the Scotland we know and love
Utterly drained with no end in sight, I turn on the news to see the conservative party determined to vote for it's Johnson tribute act rather than the only one, notwithstanding his faults, that at least knows what he is doing
Very sad
You're wrong, for an active obese individual that shape is right for 18 stone. The muscle point is because all obese people carry much more muscles than non obese people do, unless they're bed bound.
If you think about it, he's about six stone overweight and if you put on a six stone backpack on every single time you moved anywhere, you'd rapidly gain muscles too. All obese people have more muscles, thus more weight, than you'd expect. Obese people who lose weight lose muscles too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_Sand
Betfair next prime minister
2.06 Liz Truss 49%
2.58 Rishi Sunak 39%
8.2 Penny Mordaunt 12%
110 Keir Starmer
420 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.06 Liz Truss 49%
2.52 Rishi Sunak 40%
8.6 Penny Mordaunt 12%
To be in final two
1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
1.23 Liz Truss 81%
4.4 Penny Mordaunt 23%
Only 3 Tory leadership elections have been decided by party members: none of them close
2001: 61% to 39%
2005: 68% to 32%
2019: 66% to 34%
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1549371023157518338?cxt=HHwWhICzyZKvvIArAAAA
(Spoiler, there's a lot he could use.)
and
34° + 33% humidity inside.
Still feels warm
Still got a wet towel over my head, recently refreshed.
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Twenty_Years_on_Ben_Nevis/m4DsAwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=whilst+ever+there+is+snow+on+Ben+Nevis&pg=PA85-IA2&printsec=frontcover
But it's not a permanent snowpatch anyway.
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/A_Snow_Book_Northern_Scotland/oPsiZMM1w38C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=whilst+ever+there+is+snow+on+Ben+Nevis&pg=PA41&printsec=frontcover
No positive forecast available for the Conservative Party though, I'm afraid.
Equally capital gain taxes are one off events - this was designed to be an unavoidable continual source of tax revenue.
I make some good and predictions on PB, but I am content that this was a good one - beginning about 8 days before. And that is thanks to @TimS who first mentioned these models
Talking of which one of the big winners here is the model GFS which first saw this dramatic heatwave coming more than two weeks ago, and which barely budged from its predictions, despite much derision and pushback, and now it is completely vindicated. Superb accuracy. Perhaps weather modelling is getting better, or the weather is getting easier to forecast- or both?
I really would like the hot weather to fuck off now
Walked to the corner shop and back just after 5pm - only in Las Vegas and Singapore have I experienced heat like that (and I was on the shaded side of the street). Potentially very dangerous and thankfully only a few other idiots like me out and about.
This is a 48-hour hot snap - what happens if the next one is 5 days or longer? I can only hope more sensible people like Mrs Stodge have heeded the warnings and stayed indoors. As the cooler air arrives with higher humidity I suspect it will be even more unpleasant for a short period.
I do wonder if instead of proposing tax cuts we can't afford, a "summer cooling allowance" might be an option - all right, it's a barely formulated half-idea but it would fit well in the current Conservative leadership campaign?
Grant Shapps has at least conceded upgrading the nation's infrastructure to deal with this kind of heat won't be cheap - presumably we can use of the huge amounts being pledged for defence not that'll be of much use if your tanks and planes get stuck on melted asphalt.
Badenoch has earned herself a "serious job" in the next cabinet and you'd think in the event of a Conservative defeat next time, she'd be a shoo-in to be the LOTO. That said, from being a blank state on which anyone can project anything, she's not shown the surest of touches and again today failed to attract large numbers of votes from other candidates but as we all know elections are often more about making sure who doesn't win.
The Sunakans, Mordauntists and Trussites will all now scrap for the crumbs from Badenoch's table safe in the knowledge they'll be serving under her down the road - the favours you do now will earn you dividends later as a wise man once said, actually me, just now.
As far as the conservative party is concerned if they want to lose the next election they seem to be onto a winner
Also it wasn't unusual high muscle to fat ratio that was claimed, it was more muscle than most people will have due it which was said, which is something that all active obese people have.
An average obese individual who does minimal exercise will have more muscles than a professional featherweight boxer does. Why? Because carrying and moving all that fat is exercise that takes muscles, especially in your legs.
Merely standing up while six stone overweight is an exercise in it's own right. Try walking around with a six stone backpack on and see how easy it is.
(Two pre-dinner drinks required to smooth out the mediocre dinner, you understand)
"Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course."
The second sentence having the added frisson of being logically impossible.
Once when he first declared when no one else had and was too short. Second time after domestic disturbance gate when the market over reacted.
ie if I meet him for a drink he likes to get there half an hour beforehand, for a drink, to get him in the right mood for having a drink
People can cash out gains by remortgaging paying then only interest payments while avoiding the tax as the gain isn't officially "realised".
The temperature plummeted to, oh, 28°C and the sun is back out now.
Cold front? I've seen more powerful farts.
(Arthur Schopenhauer: “Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see.”)
Some people ignorantly think muscle = healthy. It doesn't. Obese people carry too much fat AND too much muscle, as opposed to too much fat but not enough muscle. Obese people who become healthy will shed muscle mass as they do.
Unfortunately outside has the sound of my neighbours listening to Eggheads at cacophonous volume.
Cloud cover now, but no sign of rain yet.
In fact, we expect today’s temperatures to expand each kilometre of rail by 30cm.
We have about 30,000km of rail on a normal day but the network is 9km longer today!
https://twitter.com/networkrail/status/1549409910693285888
Have a plan to go to bar. Get to bar. Oh, do we want to go in there? Spend the time it would take to consume a drink and decide standing outside deciding. Go in.
Think we topped out at about a crisp 26
https://news.sky.com/story/major-incident-declared-across-london-after-huge-surge-in-fires-on-uks-hottest-ever-day-12655061