I've always been fascinated by how a political party reacts to defeat by, seemingly deliberately, becoming less electable. We saw it with Labour and Corbyn, the Conservatives with Hague, Labour with Foot, and so on. The effect is that what could just be a four-year spell in opposition turns into a decade or more in the wilderness.
But I've never before known it happen while that party is still in power.
Truss would be an entirely typical self-indulgent candidate for Conservative members to vote in after the next election. She is not, however, a viable Prime Minister for 2022. The Tories are going to go down in flames if they elect her.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.
Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.
Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.
The members will almost certainly vote for Truss over Rishi, Dorries and Mogg will stay in the cabinet and she will be completely in hock to the ERG. On top of that she is a hopeless performer as we saw in the 2 debates that took place before she decided to make a run for it.
The opposition will not be able to believe their luck.There was only one serious candidate that is worse than Johnson and it looks like the Tories might pick her.
If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.
Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.
What? It was right then and right today, and will be right tomorrow too, and the day after. And for ever and ever.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Don't know yet, do we? And her Maggie cosplay is also not going to help with many of the older voters.
I'm sure she's got something else in the dressing up box for her sojourns North of the border.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
We need the money - and a house value / wealth tax wasn't an option
I've always been fascinated by how a political party reacts to defeat by, seemingly deliberately, becoming less electable. We saw it with Labour and Corbyn, the Conservatives with Hague, Labour with Foot, and so on. The effect is that what could just be a four-year spell in opposition turns into a decade or more in the wilderness.
But I've never before known it happen while that party is still in power.
Truss would be an entirely typical self-indulgent candidate for Conservative members to vote in after the next election. She is not, however, a viable Prime Minister for 2022. The Tories are going to go down in flames if they elect her.
One of the best examples was Labour choosing Foot instead of Healey in 1980. Also Hague instead of Clarke in 1997.
I’m grateful to my colleagues and the party members who have supported me.
This campaign began less than two weeks ago. What we’ve achieved demonstrates the level of support for our vision of change for our country and for the Conservative Party.
I've always been fascinated by how a political party reacts to defeat by, seemingly deliberately, becoming less electable. We saw it with Labour and Corbyn, the Conservatives with Hague, Labour with Foot, and so on. The effect is that what could just be a four-year spell in opposition turns into a decade or more in the wilderness.
But I've never before known it happen while that party is still in power.
Truss would be an entirely typical self-indulgent candidate for Conservative members to vote in after the next election. She is not, however, a viable Prime Minister for 2022. The Tories are going to go down in flames if they elect her.
One of the best examples was Labour choosing Foot instead of Healey in 1980. Also Hague instead of Clarke in 1997.
Wasn't Foot the compromise candidate of being neither Dennis Healey and Tony Benn
I don't think that's meant ironically but if you really believe that you are practically on your own right across the PB political spectrum. Even HUYFD has concluded that she will be a disaster for the Tories.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
I kind of agree.
If the tories are going down they are better off going down al least trying to implement conservatism. Two years of continuity Brown Sunak would ensure their demise for a very long time.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Don't know yet, do we? And her Maggie cosplay is also not going to help with many of the older voters.
I'm sure she's got something else in the dressing up box for her sojourns North of the border.
What sojourns? The southern Tories spend very little time visiting Scotland - whizz in abd out by helicopter mainly.
And they are so brief they won't compensate for months and months of Thatcher poses and Thatcher costumes all over the TV and newspapers.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Privileges committee needs to bury him at a crossroads with a wooden stake up his arse
Well, let me start by saying that I don't believe that Sunak lent votes to Truss. If he'd been on 140, then maybe he might have gently lent on some of his more fervent supporters. But he wasn't he was (and remains) still shy of the magic 120 level, and therefore I don't think any games were played.
And... Tory MPs are much less factional than people think. Who'da thunk that Truss would have gotten so many TT votes?
So, how the Badenoch vote splits is not necessarily going to be as obvious as it looks. I mean, in theory, it's all hardcore diamond Brexit, etc., folk. But - as others have noted - I think quite a few of them went for her because she had characteristics sadly lacking in some of her competitors: like being an actual human being with actual ideas.
With that said, Sunak is still clear favorite to make it to the members. But yesterday I said 99%. It's probably not 99% any more. It may very well be more like 95% now. I simply don't see that many Badenoch supporters standing up for Sunak. That said, he doesn't need many votes to make the 120. Could he lose a few to Penny or Truss? Yep. But it's not that likely.
Truss only needs to get six more of Badenoch's votes to jump over Mordaunt. But then again, Mordaunt scores better on "human" and "electable", than Truss. Albeit worse on "obvious lying" and "having views that resonate with members on trans rights."
I'm waffling here because I think the odds are broadly right. Truss *probably* will leapfrog Mordaunt. Rishi probably will make it north of 120 (albeit not by much). And Truss has to be narrow favourite amongst the members.
Still: if I were to make a small wager here, it would be to continue the most profitable betting strategy in all Conservative leadership elections, and sell the favourite.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
Tory MPs needed to remove Boris back during Paterson, when Sunak was still relatively popular with public and members.
As it is he now is not the change candidate, he's not the continuity Boris candidate, he's not the fresh face candidate, nor is he the overwhelming MP choice candidate.
He doesnt have a hook to sell himself to Members other than to say 'Pick who you want and you'll regret it at a GE'. And people dont like that.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
We need the money - and a house value / wealth tax wasn't an option
Of course a house tax is an option.
If you mean its politically not, well NI is politically out for me. Anyone prepared to further burden those who work in order to give even more welfare to those who don't is out for me.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
I've always been fascinated by how a political party reacts to defeat by, seemingly deliberately, becoming less electable. We saw it with Labour and Corbyn, the Conservatives with Hague, Labour with Foot, and so on. The effect is that what could just be a four-year spell in opposition turns into a decade or more in the wilderness.
But I've never before known it happen while that party is still in power.
Truss would be an entirely typical self-indulgent candidate for Conservative members to vote in after the next election. She is not, however, a viable Prime Minister for 2022. The Tories are going to go down in flames if they elect her.
One of the best examples was Labour choosing Foot instead of Healey in 1980. Also Hague instead of Clarke in 1997.
Wasn't Foot the compromise candidate of being neither Dennis Healey and Tony Benn
Sort of, but Healey was overwhelmingly the choice of the average voter.
Some SDP defectors voted for Foot in order to damage Labour just before leaving the party. Neville Sandelson admitted doing so.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Privileges committee needs to bury him at a crossroads with a wooden stake up his arse
What exactly is Truss's "record of delivery" that she keeps going on about ? If she's results-oriented, what are the results ?
Truss supporters please genuinely feel welcome to contribute.
She umm.. signed some trade deals which were very similar to the ones we had before…
She took some photos of herself in Red Square and shot Lavrov some filthy looks.
Umm…
She visited Beijing to open up new pork markets?
… actually, I would be interested to know what ratio of our cheese is imported now. Maybe Liz made that whole thing less disgraceful, I genuinely don’t know.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
I kind of agree.
If the tories are going down they are better off going down al least trying to implement conservatism. Two years of continuity Brown Sunak would ensure their demise for a very long time.
Truss may lose, Rishi may lose, but if the Tories time is up then I'd rather they lose in style.
Cut taxes, reverse tax rises, implement policies that we elected them for. If that means going down to a defeat then so be it, go down in style like the band playing on while the Titanic was sinking.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is not a great idea, unless you really think you can kick-start the economy by doing so. As far as I can tell that’s Liz’s policy.
Having said that, personally I think we need to borrow a bit more, invest a bit more, increase taxes on wealth and reduce them on income, and allow interest rates to climb more.
It’s not feasible in my opinion to reduce state spending right now except with regard to spending on pensioner goodies.
I’m not sure whether I’m closer to Liz or Rishi on this topic, all things considered.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
And, y’know, buggering working age people in the process.
A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.
Deliver, deliver, deliver.
Special delivery. Guaranteed to deliver. Guaranteed Next Day Delivery.
Just become a buzzword in politics, hasn't it? - "Deliver".
Employed for the feel-tone it creates of efficiency and focus. Most commonly used these days not in addition to the act of delivering but instead of it. Boris Johnson a great example of this. Forever blithering on about "delivering" whilst doing absolutely none of it.
Although in fact, based on her ideas and rhetoric, it would be vastly preferable if Liz Truss didn't deliver. Far better if she either overslept or lost her sack.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Don't know yet, do we? And her Maggie cosplay is also not going to help with many of the older voters.
I'm sure she's got something else in the dressing up box for her sojourns North of the border.
What sojourns? The southern Tories spend very little time visiting Scotland - whizz in abd out by helicopter mainly.
And they are so brief they won't compensate for months and months of Thatcher poses and Thatcher costumes all over the TV and newspapers.
That’s a shame, I was thinking Good Queen Bess in the aftermath of the defeat of the Spanish Armada for Bute House.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
That's exactly what Sunak is doing.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
There's some chance that Truss will cut off the sweetie supply, there's no chance Sunak will do so. For that alone, Truss is worth a chance.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Privileges committee needs to bury him at a crossroads with a wooden stake up his arse
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
That's exactly what Sunak is doing.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
Unfunded social care by removing the NI hike.
Corporation tax cuts to encourage short termism...
So I was just looking at Dennis Healey’s Wikipedia page and there’s a link on there about Healey’s First Law of Holes. So I clicked the link, and came to this page. I think the picture, and it’s caption, are excellent.
If you're wondering why George Osborne left parliament, this is what he knew was coming.
Brexit is a hard left project espoused by Michael Foot, it was inevitable other hard left policies would be taken over by the Brexiteers.
It wasn't to do with the fact that most people in his party viewed him as a cock and that, once Cameron went, he had less chance than Michael Fabricant of ever becoming PM?
What exactly is Truss's "record of delivery" that she keeps going on about ? If she's results-oriented, what are the results ?
Truss supporters please genuinely feel welcome to contribute.
She umm.. signed some trade deals which were very similar to the ones we had before…
She took some photos of herself in Red Square and shot Lavrov some filthy looks.
Umm…
She visited Beijing to open up new pork markets?
… actually, I would be interested to know what ratio of our cheese is imported now. Maybe Liz made that whole thing less disgraceful, I genuinely don’t know.
At least she didn't go to Tel Aviv or Riadh to try and open up new Pork markets. You have to give her that.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
A good move if they want to see the Labour lead at 30%.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
I kind of agree.
If the tories are going down they are better off going down al least trying to implement conservatism. Two years of continuity Brown Sunak would ensure their demise for a very long time.
Truss may lose, Rishi may lose, but if the Tories time is up then I'd rather they lose in style.
Cut taxes, reverse tax rises, implement policies that we elected them for. If that means going down to a defeat then so be it, go down in style like the band playing on while the Titanic was sinking.
With the added bonus of shrieks from the left.....
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Privileges committee needs to bury him at a crossroads with a wooden stake up his arse
Bit rough on Alastair.
NOT as I hope is obvious what I meant
We are better than the USA. There's enough Boris material out there to get him locked up.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
You think Truss will?
There's a chance. I'd rather a chance than no chance.
If Truss reverses the NI rise then I have more confidence she'll tell the grey voters there's no money available for more sweeties than that Rishi will do that.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Don't know yet, do we? And her Maggie cosplay is also not going to help with many of the older voters.
I'm sure she's got something else in the dressing up box for her sojourns North of the border.
What sojourns? The southern Tories spend very little time visiting Scotland - whizz in abd out by helicopter mainly.
And they are so brief they won't compensate for months and months of Thatcher poses and Thatcher costumes all over the TV and newspapers.
That’s a shame, I was thinking Good Queen Bess in the aftermath of the defeat of the Spanish Armada for Bute House.
TBF, as I have observed, most of the Edinburgh Zoo chimps would be more popular than the current incumbent. But Ms Truss is firmly linked to the Johnsonite era, and is covering herself in Thatcherite plumage - so I will be interested to see how she does.
Well, let me start by saying that I don't believe that Sunak lent votes to Truss. If he'd been on 140, then maybe he might have gently lent on some of his more fervent supporters. But he wasn't he was (and remains) still shy of the magic 120 level, and therefore I don't think any games were played.
And... Tory MPs are much less factional than people think. Who'da thunk that Truss would have gotten so many TT votes?
So, how the Badenoch vote splits is not necessarily going to be as obvious as it looks. I mean, in theory, it's all hardcore diamond Brexit, etc., folk. But - as others have noted - I think quite a few of them went for her because she had characteristics sadly lacking in some of her competitors: like being an actual human being with actual ideas.
With that said, Sunak is still clear favorite to make it to the members. But yesterday I said 99%. It's probably not 99% any more. It may very well be more like 95% now. I simply don't see that many Badenoch supporters standing up for Sunak. That said, he doesn't need many votes to make the 120. Could he lose a few to Penny or Truss? Yep. But it's not that likely.
Truss only needs to get six more of Badenoch's votes to jump over Mordaunt. But then again, Mordaunt scores better on "human" and "electable", than Truss. Albeit worse on "obvious lying" and "having views that resonate with members on trans rights."
I'm waffling here because I think the odds are broadly right. Truss *probably* will leapfrog Mordaunt. Rishi probably will make it north of 120 (albeit not by much). And Truss has to be narrow favourite amongst the members.
Still: if I were to make a small wager here, it would be to continue the most profitable betting strategy in all most Conservative leadership elections, and sell the favourite.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
You think Truss will?
There's a chance. I'd rather a chance than no chance.
If Truss reverses the NI rise then I have more confidence she'll tell the grey voters there's no money available for more sweeties than that Rishi will do that.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
That's exactly what Sunak is doing.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
Unfunded social care by removing the NI hike.
Corporation tax cuts to encourage short termism...
Neither of them are sweeties for the grey vote, quite the opposite. Both leave us in a position of "no money left" for any more sweeties. That's a step in the right direction.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
That's exactly what Sunak is doing.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
Unfunded social care by removing the NI hike.
Corporation tax cuts to encourage short termism...
Neither of them are sweeties for the grey vote, quite the opposite. Both leave us in a position of "no money left" for any more sweeties. That's a step in the right direction.
Both leave us with increased Social care costs and no means of funding those changes.
Which means more destitute Local Authorities becoming little more than social care organisations
Sunak could still win if Truss does really badly during the hustings period.
In theory. But she'll frame her poor moments as not being the slick, phony Rishi.
That works if people like you more than your opponent, and they seem to.
IIRC in 2005 and 2019 about 80% of the ballots were returned within a week of receipt which meant most of the votes had been cast before the final two debates happened.
A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.
"I knew Margaret Thatcher. Elizabeth - you are no Margaret Thatcher".
Truss is at odds with Treasury thinking already, so I suppose there is a chance she will challenge Treasury orthodoxy.
Who would her Chancellor be?
Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I wish I was joking.
Gods, even Boris only added him to the Cabinet in the last reshuffle, and in a made up post to boot. Truss being the darling of that faction is worrying.
Which leadership candidates bend the knee and take a post? No room for Rishi, but Penny would snatch at a role I think.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Sweeties for old people? Like Werther's Originals?
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
I was talking about how good/bad a PM she'll be - you're talking about how she'll do in a general election. On which note, I agree with you she'll bomb, hence I don't think she's going to be chosen. Is YOUR party going to choose somebody YOU see as a stone cold loser? No way. That would imply you've become out of touch - that the party you love is rejecting you and all you stand for - and this I refuse to believe.
Rcs100 is surely wrong, there’s no way Liz picked up all those votes direct from Tom.
No way in hell.
How then? And why?
Votes from Tom (and possibly others) heading toward Kemi, almost completely balanced by right-wing Kemi voters heading towards Truss.
I know it is a fallacy to think that Tories vote neatly on factional lines, but Tom and Truss have zero in common, save defence perhaps, which is probably worth a couple of votes at best and in which in case Penny is equally attractive.
What exactly is Truss's "record of delivery" that she keeps going on about ? If she's results-oriented, what are the results ?
Truss supporters please genuinely feel welcome to contribute.
I am not a Truss supporter but the example she gave in the debates was signing up all those trade agreements in the aftermath of Brexit. Which, in fairness, she did. Even if most were just cut and paste versions of our previous arrangements it still had to be done and it was done quickly (there is a definite Lady MacBeth feel about Liz).
The contrast between my very low rating of Truss's electability and her support by others makes me doubt my sanity. On reflection I think its the Tory MPs and members who back her who are the insane ones. "Whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad"
Major incident in London declared by Mayor Khan in response to a number of fires. Wants to ban disposable barbecues.
The number of idiots who put them in insane places. That, combined with the fashion for decking in small gardens - popular for rental properties.....
Out here they’ve started locking up people for cooking with barbecues on balconies of cladded apartment blocks - after half a dozen buildings went properly on fire!
Never underestimate just how moronic the morons can be.
There was a story last week or the week before where a child ended up with category A burns because someone had buried a life disposable BBQ on a beach and the child ran across it unaware.
Remember that Sand can get to 400-500c without much difficulty (see the energy storage posts earlier)
The biggest thing to remember is that 2 years is a long time.
Up to now, May 2024 has been considered most likely for a GE, but it could easily be October 2024.
If Truss is heading for a wipeout defeat, Con MPs aren't just going to sit there and do nothing. Sure they'll give her a year but they can easily remove her next summer or autumn.
We know Con MPs don't want Truss - she would obviously lose to Sunak if the Final 2 was a vote of MPs. If they don't want her now, they'll want her a lot less when they are further behind in the polls and 12 months closer to losing their jobs.
Some people say it would look ridiculous to change leader again and it would be unusual. But lots of unusual things have happened and if MPs decide they need to do it, they will.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is not a great idea, unless you really think you can kick-start the economy by doing so. As far as I can tell that’s Liz’s policy.
Having said that, personally I think we need to borrow a bit more, invest a bit more, increase taxes on wealth and reduce them on income, and allow interest rates to climb more.
It’s not feasible in my opinion to reduce state spending right now except with regard to spending on pensioner goodies.
I’m not sure whether I’m closer to Liz or Rishi on this topic, all things considered.
If that's what is going to happen then fine, but we both know it won't. It will be spunked on dividend tax cuts, increasing the state pension and rolling back existing anti-landlord measures. She is the candidate that will deliver more money from working age people to old people. That's literally her only route to winning in 2024.
Well the threatened rain moved through quickly, didn't amount to much here, just a brief watering and a few rumbles of thunder. Not much cooler than it was before, yet. Meanwhile the rain belt is approaching Wrexham-Worcester-Swindon-Winchester
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
I completely agree that borrowing is bad, but getting into a vicious cycle of ever-higher taxes in order to give more sweeties to the grey vote while smothering those who are young or having to work for a living isn't "realistic" or better.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
The problem is that Liz Truss is proposing exactly that, spending future tax revenue (mine, your's, everyone's kids and grandkids) to fund sweeties for old people. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
That's exactly what Sunak is doing.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
Unfunded social care by removing the NI hike.
Corporation tax cuts to encourage short termism...
Neither of them are sweeties for the grey vote, quite the opposite. Both leave us in a position of "no money left" for any more sweeties. That's a step in the right direction.
Both leave us with increased Social care costs and no means of funding those changes.
Which means more destitute Local Authorities becoming little more than social care organisations
They can't become what they already are.
Trying to stop giving more sweeties to the grey votes by ensuring there's more funding for grey votes, is like trying to defeat alcoholism by embracing higher strength spirits.
Rishi won't reduce borrowing over Liz, he'd just raise more taxes then give even more sweeties to the grey voters at the next election with the money raised in order to try and buy the next election. I'd rather see the Tories lose than that.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is not a great idea, unless you really think you can kick-start the economy by doing so. As far as I can tell that’s Liz’s policy.
Having said that, personally I think we need to borrow a bit more, invest a bit more, increase taxes on wealth and reduce them on income, and allow interest rates to climb more.
It’s not feasible in my opinion to reduce state spending right now except with regard to spending on pensioner goodies.
I’m not sure whether I’m closer to Liz or Rishi on this topic, all things considered.
If that's what is going to happen then fine, but we both know it won't. It will be spunked on dividend tax cuts, increasing the state pension and rolling back existing anti-landlord measures. She is the candidate that will deliver more money from working age people to old people. That's literally her only route to winning in 2024.
Sunak is that candidate, its literally what he's already doing.
He's not doing sound economics, he's trying to build a "war chest" to give even more sweeties for the grey vote at the next election. I'd rather bank NI reversed and have no war chest than that.
Comments
But I've never before known it happen while that party is still in power.
Truss would be an entirely typical self-indulgent candidate for Conservative members to vote in after the next election. She is not, however, a viable Prime Minister for 2022. The Tories are going to go down in flames if they elect her.
The opposition will not be able to believe their luck.There was only one serious candidate that is worse than Johnson and it looks like the Tories might pick her.
Probably under a Truss administration.
I don't think that's meant ironically but if you really believe that you are practically on your own right across the PB political spectrum. Even HUYFD has concluded that she will be a disaster for the Tories.
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1549405282568110081
If the tories are going down they are better off going down al least trying to implement conservatism. Two years of continuity Brown Sunak would ensure their demise for a very long time.
Truss supporters please genuinely feel welcome to contribute.
And they are so brief they won't compensate for months and months of Thatcher poses and Thatcher costumes all over the TV and newspapers.
Well, let me start by saying that I don't believe that Sunak lent votes to Truss. If he'd been on 140, then maybe he might have gently lent on some of his more fervent supporters. But he wasn't he was (and remains) still shy of the magic 120 level, and therefore I don't think any games were played.
And... Tory MPs are much less factional than people think. Who'da thunk that Truss would have gotten so many TT votes?
So, how the Badenoch vote splits is not necessarily going to be as obvious as it looks. I mean, in theory, it's all hardcore diamond Brexit, etc., folk. But - as others have noted - I think quite a few of them went for her because she had characteristics sadly lacking in some of her competitors: like being an actual human being with actual ideas.
With that said, Sunak is still clear favorite to make it to the members. But yesterday I said 99%. It's probably not 99% any more. It may very well be more like 95% now. I simply don't see that many Badenoch supporters standing up for Sunak. That said, he doesn't need many votes to make the 120. Could he lose a few to Penny or Truss? Yep. But it's not that likely.
Truss only needs to get six more of Badenoch's votes to jump over Mordaunt. But then again, Mordaunt scores better on "human" and "electable", than Truss. Albeit worse on "obvious lying" and "having views that resonate with members on trans rights."
I'm waffling here because I think the odds are broadly right. Truss *probably* will leapfrog Mordaunt. Rishi probably will make it north of 120 (albeit not by much). And Truss has to be narrow favourite amongst the members.
Still: if I were to make a small wager here, it would be to continue the most profitable betting strategy in all Conservative leadership elections, and sell the favourite.
The Treasury views NI as the "easy way out" to get more money since 1% in NI is really 2% on Income Tax but without the political harm or harming the grey vote.
The Treasury orthodoxy needs to be challenged, and Rishi isn't going to do that.
As it is he now is not the change candidate, he's not the continuity Boris candidate, he's not the fresh face candidate, nor is he the overwhelming MP choice candidate.
He doesnt have a hook to sell himself to Members other than to say 'Pick who you want and you'll regret it at a GE'. And people dont like that.
Previous 36.0.
5% average.
If you mean its politically not, well NI is politically out for me. Anyone prepared to further burden those who work in order to give even more welfare to those who don't is out for me.
I still don’t think this is over. But I had previously written off Liz and I’m both eating humble pie and slightly fearful of a Liz premiership.
Some SDP defectors voted for Foot in order to damage Labour just before leaving the party. Neville Sandelson admitted doing so.
She took some photos of herself in Red Square and shot Lavrov some filthy looks.
Umm…
She visited Beijing to open up new pork markets?
… actually, I would be interested to know what ratio of our cheese is imported now. Maybe Liz made that whole thing less disgraceful, I genuinely don’t know.
Cut taxes, reverse tax rises, implement policies that we elected them for. If that means going down to a defeat then so be it, go down in style like the band playing on while the Titanic was sinking.
Having said that, personally I think we need to borrow a bit more, invest a bit more, increase taxes on wealth and reduce them on income, and allow interest rates to climb more.
It’s not feasible in my opinion to reduce state spending right now except with regard to spending on pensioner goodies.
I’m not sure whether I’m closer to Liz or Rishi on this topic, all things considered.
https://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php?code2=EGCN&jour2=19&mois2=6&annee2=2022
Employed for the feel-tone it creates of efficiency and focus. Most commonly used these days not in addition to the act of delivering but instead of it. Boris Johnson a great example of this. Forever blithering on about "delivering" whilst doing absolutely none of it.
Although in fact, based on her ideas and rhetoric, it would be vastly preferable if Liz Truss didn't deliver. Far better if she either overslept or lost her sack.
What sweeties for old people is Truss proposing that Sunak hasn't done?
There's some chance that Truss will cut off the sweetie supply, there's no chance Sunak will do so. For that alone, Truss is worth a chance.
Corporation tax cuts to encourage short termism...
Mr Putin met with Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran. He will meet Iran's supreme leader and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_holes
We are better than the USA. There's enough Boris material out there to get him locked up.
If Truss reverses the NI rise then I have more confidence she'll tell the grey voters there's no money available for more sweeties than that Rishi will do that.
PS. I'm not recommending such a step.
No way in hell.
Who would her Chancellor be?
Oh well, with Starmer and a tailor's dummy in competition, no one will die of excitement.
I wish I was joking.
That works if people like you more than your opponent, and they seem to.
Which means more destitute Local Authorities becoming little more than social care organisations
However I can see Boris returning as Foreign Secretary. I really can.
Which leadership candidates bend the knee and take a post? No room for Rishi, but Penny would snatch at a role I think.
I know it is a fallacy to think that Tories vote neatly on factional lines, but Tom and Truss have zero in common, save defence perhaps, which is probably worth a couple of votes at best and in which in case Penny is equally attractive.
40.3C in Coningsby Lincs
Extraordinary day
Up to now, May 2024 has been considered most likely for a GE, but it could easily be October 2024.
If Truss is heading for a wipeout defeat, Con MPs aren't just going to sit there and do nothing. Sure they'll give her a year but they can easily remove her next summer or autumn.
We know Con MPs don't want Truss - she would obviously lose to Sunak if the Final 2 was a vote of MPs. If they don't want her now, they'll want her a lot less when they are further behind in the polls and 12 months closer to losing their jobs.
Some people say it would look ridiculous to change leader again and it would be unusual. But lots of unusual things have happened and if MPs decide they need to do it, they will.
Trying to stop giving more sweeties to the grey votes by ensuring there's more funding for grey votes, is like trying to defeat alcoholism by embracing higher strength spirits.
Rishi won't reduce borrowing over Liz, he'd just raise more taxes then give even more sweeties to the grey voters at the next election with the money raised in order to try and buy the next election. I'd rather see the Tories lose than that.
That was about as impressive as predicting today would be a touch warm.
C'mon.
(Not least by Putin!)
He's not doing sound economics, he's trying to build a "war chest" to give even more sweeties for the grey vote at the next election. I'd rather bank NI reversed and have no war chest than that.