Am thinking that some (but how many?) of Mordaunt's gains from 3rd to 4th round are Sunak sleeper MPs?
Equally possible that Truss has some, as I said above - you wouldn't expect her to have got so many TiT votes; the TiTs could have moved Rishi as Rishi made sure Truss beat Badenoch
Sunak could still win if Truss does really badly during the hustings period.
In theory. But she'll frame her poor moments as not being the slick, phony Rishi.
That works if people like you more than your opponent, and they seem to.
IIRC in 2005 and 2019 about 80% of the ballots were returned within a week of receipt which meant most of the votes had been cast before the final two debates happened.
Indeed - no time to recover position. Unless these member polls are simply wrong Sunak has maybe a week to turn things around.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
There's always "an element of misogyny" in the slagging off of female public figures. It's just a matter of how big the element is.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
I was talking about how good/bad a PM she'll be - you're talking about how she'll do in a general election. On which note, I agree with you she'll bomb, hence I don't think she's going to be chosen. Is YOUR party going to choose somebody YOU see as a stone cold loser? No way. That would imply you've become out of touch - that the party you love is rejecting you and all you stand for - and this I refuse to believe.
It will really depend, supposing a Truss-Sunak contest, if Rishi's polling numbers are significantly better than Liz's. But it would have to be a significant margin for him to persuade the members not to go down an IDS-style rabbit-hole with Truss. She will tell them what they want to hear - his take on reality may not play so well.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
There may be something in that but we do have gut feelings about how a given politician will come across to the electorate. It is possible that Truss as PM could win over the floating vote but my gut feeling is that both Mordaunt and Badenoch would be much better at that simply because they come over better. Sunak also but I was addressing the male/female issue.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I really don't think so. The Tories (very largely) gave up on misogyny nearly half a century ago.
Conservative female halfwits are given no easier ride than male Conservative halfwits. Such is the extent of equality in the party.
Why are various people making out it was some brilliant call that Badenoch wouldn't overtake Truss and survive?
That was about as impressive as predicting today would be a touch warm.
C'mon.
Yup. I think the left leaning people on here have a far clearer view of things as we have zero emotional investment in this contest. I have said from the start it would be Sunak versus Mordaunt or Truss in the final two. I don't say this to signal my forecasting prowess, simply that it was obvious. It gets harder to predict from here but I still think Sunak will win.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Hopeless circularity there. Substitute Dominic Raab or Gav W for Wallace to see why
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
True- it's pretty clear which rabbit hole the Conservatives will go down next time. But it's going to be easy for Boris to point at what's coming next and say "You shouldn't have got rid of me. I told you life was better under Boris."
That's why Boris's fan club are backing her, she is the only candidate that makes him look good. He doesn't want a successor that is better than he was. It's like Ferguson putting in Moyes when he retired, he could have gone for Pep or Klopp or another international big hitter but in his heart of hearts he didn't't really want him to succeed, he wanted everyone to be saying "Bring back Fergie". That worked out well too.
The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.
I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is not a great idea, unless you really think you can kick-start the economy by doing so. As far as I can tell that’s Liz’s policy.
Having said that, personally I think we need to borrow a bit more, invest a bit more, increase taxes on wealth and reduce them on income, and allow interest rates to climb more.
It’s not feasible in my opinion to reduce state spending right now except with regard to spending on pensioner goodies.
I’m not sure whether I’m closer to Liz or Rishi on this topic, all things considered.
If that's what is going to happen then fine, but we both know it won't. It will be spunked on dividend tax cuts, increasing the state pension and rolling back existing anti-landlord measures. She is the candidate that will deliver more money from working age people to old people. That's literally her only route to winning in 2024.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
I didn't have a problem with raising taxes. If the government was going to fund the NHS and Social Care to the standards we wanted post Covid that seemed inevitable. My problem was which taxes Rishi chose to raise and to that extent only I agree with Truss. NI increases and an increased differential between earned and unearned income was absolutely the wrong way to go. But to reverse the increases and to have nothing in their place is also wrong, inflationary and irresponsible.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Hopeless circularity there. Substitute Dominic Raab or Gav W for Wallace to see why
Quite. There are some vicious views toward male idiots in the party.
I dont even think she is that. She has delivered in ways the party likes and thrived across multiple PMs, she has sone substance.
But Mordaunt seems more likeable, and less in hock to JRM and the scooby gang.
Taxes are at a 74 year high and it was a mistake to put them up to that.
If reversing that mistake is not affordable, then what can be?
The Treasury needs to be told the golden goose can't be plucked anymore and to make do with what resources it has. If that means no more sweeties at election time for the grey voters, they'll just have to suck that up.
If that means the Tories lose, so be it. Better that, than the alternative.
Actually I see that Simon Clarke, the very tall Chief Secretary to the Treasury, was an early Truss backer, so I’d assume he would be Chancellor.
Other notables: Cleverly, Knight (currently head of the Culture Select Committee), Coffey, Kwarteng, Trevelyan, plus of course Rees-Mogg, Dorries, Braverman, Baker, and IDS.
"I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is."
No, it would be misandry. I'd work on the basis that if politicans can't be either use nor ornament, I'll settle for one out of two. Is that asking too much?
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
It could all explode very quickly. Truss's CoE announces tax cuts and Rishi goes straight on TV and says he (and a group of likeminded MPs) can't vote for it so the Budget won't pass the Commons.
They can't allow the Govt to lose a Budget (which would mean a GE) so they will instead go for an immediate vote of no confidence in Truss. Will be very easy to get 54 letters.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
That's the bit that annoys me most.
The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.
Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.
We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
I kind of agree.
If the tories are going down they are better off going down al least trying to implement conservatism. Two years of continuity Brown Sunak would ensure their demise for a very long time.
Truss may lose, Rishi may lose, but if the Tories time is up then I'd rather they lose in style.
Cut taxes, reverse tax rises, implement policies that we elected them for. If that means going down to a defeat then so be it, go down in style like the band playing on while the Titanic was sinking.
That's actually a great image for what's been happening pretty much since 2015 - the nation slowly sinking whilst the Tory party "plays on".
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Personally, I think Truss will be fine. I don't have any strong objections to her political positions: I think she'll be firm but pragmatic with the EU. I think she'll be sound on Ukraine.
I think she's smart and hard working, and suspect she'll grow into the role of PM.
That said, I do worry that she's a little doctrinaire on the economics side. In particular, I think the world is a little different to 1980, and the room to accelerate economies via tax cuts much more limited. (Not least because in 1980 we underconsumed, and now we overconsume. Cutting taxes to drive additional consumption therefore makes our imbalances worse...)
If the Ukraine crisis is resolved with Russia failing (which I think it will, and which is more likely if Truss is PM than Sunak), then the cost of living crisis is likely to be reversed surprisingly quickly.
Combine that with a negotiated peace with the EU, and it is not implausible that Ms Truss could manage a 1992 type result next time around, and almost certainly to the detriment of the LDs in the South.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Utter bollocks.
Perhaps you missed the times I called Sir Gavin Williamson the political Frank Spencer
It could all explode very quickly. Truss's CoE announces tax cuts and Rishi goes straight on TV and says he (and a group of likeminded MPs) can't vote for it so the Budget won't pass the Commons.
They can't allow the Govt to lose a Budget (which would mean a GE) so they will instead go for an immediate vote of no confidence in Truss. Will be very easy to get 54 letters.
No way they pull the nuclear option so soon. The DUP might junk a new leader so quick but not them.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
Covid wasn't a recession but we are about to enter an almighty recession..
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Plausible. Personally I think her record, whilst hardly stellar, is probably the best of the remaining candidates. I don't agree with her views at all, and have heard from civil servants that she has some pretty big delusions of grandeur... but that's not exactly unusual for a politician.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
It's just that communication is a huge part of being a politician. You can have ones who aren't great at it, and they can be amazing, but usually not as PM.
But I was going to give the Liz critique a rest anyway.
Truss is at odds with Treasury thinking already, so I suppose there is a chance she will challenge Treasury orthodoxy.
Who would her Chancellor be?
Jacob Rees-Mogg.
I wish I was joking.
Even Liz is not that mad.
However I can see Boris returning as Foreign Secretary. I really can.
She said that she would not have him in her cabinet.
Attorney General then?
I think that we have already tried having someone with no obvious legal skills in that post. The results have been disappointing.
Maybe Special Ambassador to the Ukraine, if he wants it. The UK has played quite a major roll in coordinating support and equipment from other countries. Boris might be a good person to do that. But I think he will be looking to earn a lot more money.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
The timescale difference between Liz and Sunak's commitments to cut taxes is miniscule, both have said they'll do so before the next election which is less than 2 years away.
The only difference is that Liz has said she'll do so by reverse Sunak's NI hike.
Sunak has said he'll cut Income Tax, which means that the NI hike is locked in, but pensioners benefit from lower income tax while not facing higher NI.
So which would you prefer - NI hike reversed, or NI hike kept and Income Tax cut on pensioners?
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
The timescale difference between Liz and Sunak's commitments to cut taxes is miniscule, both have said they'll do so before the next election which is less than 2 years away.
The only difference is that Liz has said she'll do so by reverse Sunak's NI hike.
Sunak has said he'll cut Income Tax, which means that the NI hike is locked in, but pensioners benefit from lower income tax while not facing higher NI.
So which would you prefer - NI hike reversed, or NI hike kept and Income Tax cut on pensioners?
I'd prefer none of them. Honestly, I think the party is done.
I believe it is quite warm in England, there has been the odd mention of it on here, oddly enough. That is quite a lot of runs SA have. Going to be a challenge.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Temps definitely coming down in the London area now. There looks to be a big drop around 8 coming up, when the temperature dips five degrees, and then it looks like "a wrap", as hollywood filmmakers would say, for this particular heatwave.
Why are various people making out it was some brilliant call that Badenoch wouldn't overtake Truss and survive?
That was about as impressive as predicting today would be a touch warm.
C'mon.
its like when theres a very small number of comments on something, then its overwhelmed by opposing comments, yet that small number is treated as significant. See it with twitter outrages.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
Reversing the NI tax increase is one thing, but that's only a third of the tax cuts that Truss has promised, and she is going to pay for them all with a massive increase in borrowing, rather than with other tax increases or spending cuts.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
The timescale difference between Liz and Sunak's commitments to cut taxes is miniscule, both have said they'll do so before the next election which is less than 2 years away.
The only difference is that Liz has said she'll do so by reverse Sunak's NI hike.
Sunak has said he'll cut Income Tax, which means that the NI hike is locked in, but pensioners benefit from lower income tax while not facing higher NI.
So which would you prefer - NI hike reversed, or NI hike kept and Income Tax cut on pensioners?
I'd prefer none of them. Honestly, I think the party is done.
It might be, but if it is then better to be done with Truss reversing Sunak's mistakes and going down to defeat than Sunak doubling down on his mistakes having a pre-election grey giveaway as he's already said he plans to do!
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Evidence?
(Not sure I’ve ever seen Truss favourability measured in a Scottish poll.)
The brilliant thing about PM Truss - if it is her and it seems likely now - is that she is so bad yet will be so well liked by her party. In politics you always need to carefully balance off retaining your core whilst attracting a substantial proportion of the centre ground.
The Tories problem is the mirror of Labour's post Brown. An exhausted government with no purpose other than "keep the other lot out, their are evil and their policies are mental", and yet they are so exhausted they haven't noticed they have co-opted all of the most mental policies they really oppose.
Labour faffed around with a weak Ed Milliband, failed to understand why they were lost, and then put forward the 2015 candidates of hell, to emerge with Jezbollah to lead them across the political Styx into Hades. The Tories are prepping their own Styxian boat for departure...
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
That doesn't prove anything of the kind. Raab has been a senior Cabinet Minister, trusted to fill in for the PM when he was incapacitated in fact. He rates above her in the governments official ministerial rankings.
So whilst I happen to agree she's probably more able than him, they are demonstrably of similar rank, so a comparison to him is not belittling her to second rank.
It proves a man gets belittled as much as she, even one of similar rank.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
My 42 bet is dead in the water. Still, I break even and I had to guard against the possibility of the 40-42 bet losing on the down side. I aimed high and missed.
You still did well. As - modest cough - did I
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
Throw out enough predictions and some of them are going to land close!
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
There is a kernel of sanity to this insane concept. In normal times, parties would select a leader and then fight an election with them. This has ended with the Tories - we're about to have our 4th PM in 6 years. Having had a pair of rerun general elections because the government was unhappy with the result of the previous one.
So yes, why not. They can run through until 2025, and why not stick another change of PM through, back come Boris, who spaffs out a load of Christmas cheer from his sack in a Christmas election campaign.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
Objectively speaking, Raab is Deputy Prime Minister and was Foreign Secretary before Truss.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
Disgusted at the wise Antifrank keeping such foul company.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
House temperatures. The thermostat is in my dormer. Regime of opening windows morning and night and sealing off during the day.
Indoor and outdoor about evens, so have just opened it all up and have fan blowing air out of a window to catch the cooling as soon as it kicks in.
Sat night min: 23.5 Sun max: 30.5 Sun night min: 26.0 Mon max: 34.0 Mon night min: 28.5 Tues max (so far): 35.5
Downstairs is laggier but has reached 28-29 today.
I think today outside, judging by car thermometer is about same as yesterday.
Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
Evidence?
(Not sure I’ve ever seen Truss favourability measured in a Scottish poll.)
I suspect the evidence comes from Bozo satisfaction rating of -71% (83% negative, 12% positive).
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
There is a kernel of sanity to this insane concept. In normal times, parties would select a leader and then fight an election with them. This has ended with the Tories - we're about to have our 4th PM in 6 years. Having had a pair of rerun general elections because the government was unhappy with the result of the previous one.
So yes, why not. They can run through until 2025, and why not stick another change of PM through, back come Boris, who spaffs out a load of Christmas cheer from his sack in a Christmas election campaign.
This seems unusually incoherent. The last two Tory PMs elected midterm have fought an election sooner than needed (unlike the last such Labour PM) and it's a very long time since a PM never fought an election.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
She is proposing to *borrow money* to cut taxes. That is insane.
If she was proposing to take an axe to spending to cut taxes that would at least be credible economically (though politically brutal). But borrowing to cut taxes? With one policy she ends for a generation not only the Tories last shred of economic credibility, but also any attack they could try and make about Labour's own economic issues.
You supporting that makes almost as much sense as BF supporting Badenoch.
Apparently it's getting cooler. But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin. I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly. Off for a cool shower.
Labour (Reeves) are also criticising the highest taxes in 70 years, so as far as I can tell, Rishi is running to the left of Labour.
I assume that the Labour position is to say they can reduce tax burden for lower paid by increasing it for "the rich" and "big business". Trouble with that is when it hits reality. For the avoidance of doubt I would support such a shift but it would have to be quite small scale or bugger up the economy good and proper.
The sane Labour position would be to introduce a wealth tax and state that some of the savings will be used to reduce the tax burden on the lower paid.
Land value tax should be introduced with reduction and replacement of other taxes. Wealth taxes sound great but the more I think about the implementation the more problems I foresee.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
I for one am happy to confirm that, although I think Liz Truss is a fake and a lightweight, she is nonetheless considerably more talented than Dominic Raab.
Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.
Win/win. Very happy. 😁
Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.
He's clearly super fit and has shimmied down a drainpipe, presumably as the lady's husband arrived home early. There would absolutely no other reason to be attired like that!
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
- “… substantial political figure… “
Ho ho.
Copied. Pasted.
I'm not entirely sure whether you're accusing me of working for Liz Truss's campaign or whether you've copied and pasted it to some kind of niche forum where you make fun of the English.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
No, it's her position on tax and spend which is a disaster. Anyone who's suggesting we can cut taxes right now has got a screw loose.
Not long ago we all agreed raising taxes was a screw loose.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
No, raising NI was idiotic. Reversing that, fine, replace the income from somewhere else because we have a rapidly slowing economy and we're borrowing £135bn per year and that number is now barely falling. Or cut spending (including the NHS) by the same amount.
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
We're not running a deficit in the run-up to a recession, we're running a deficit in the aftermath of one. That's normal.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
There is a recession looming and Liz is proposing to increase the deficit to fund tax cuts. If she said I'd cut NI but make it revenue neutral by raising elsewhere and cutting spending by some amount then I'd be fine with it. She isn't. She's going to put the deficit up to 6% of GDP on the eve of recession.
Not meaning to cast nasturtiums, but you're proposing to raise interest rates on the eve of a recession, which would hit homeowners with mortgages pretty hard. And which would almost certainly make any recession worse.
It'd be taking money from the young (who have debts) and handing it to the old (who have interest earning deposits).
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
I for one am happy to confirm that, although I think Liz Truss is a fake and a lightweight, she is nonetheless considerably more talented than Dominic Raab.
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
People really are risking misunderestimating her, I feel.
Temps definitely coming down in the London area now. There looks to be a big drop around 8 coming up, when the temperature dips five degrees, and then it looks like "a wrap", as hollywood filmmakers would say, for this particular heatwave.
Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss is 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.
Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...
Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
This is what Alastair Meeks and myself were discussing earlier.
There is a kernel of sanity to this insane concept. In normal times, parties would select a leader and then fight an election with them. This has ended with the Tories - we're about to have our 4th PM in 6 years. Having had a pair of rerun general elections because the government was unhappy with the result of the previous one.
So yes, why not. They can run through until 2025, and why not stick another change of PM through, back come Boris, who spaffs out a load of Christmas cheer from his sack in a Christmas election campaign.
This seems unusually incoherent. The last two Tory PMs elected midterm have fought an election sooner than needed (unlike the last such Labour PM) and it's a very long time since a PM never fought an election.
It wouldn't be "unusually incoherent", it would be far worse than that. But the scenario painted is that with months left before an election was required by law the Tories were well behind and going nowhere but into the bin.
At that point if you are mad enough, any incoherent stupidity can seem like a least worse option than not acting. I can't see that it would be Boris as I doubt he will still be an MP, but bin the leader for a quick swap and a radical change of direction? Why not, when the alternative is losing badly?
I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is.
I don't think that being male has saved Raab from well-deserved mockery.
That comparison proves my point. You're putting her in the same category as someone who is much less impressive. Objectively speaking, Liz Truss is a substantial political figure, but she's treated as second rank.
‘Substantial political figure’. Think you’d better get in the shade.
Front bench Cabinet Minister for nearly a decade, under three separate Prime Ministers, having held some of the biggest offices of State from Lord Chancellor to Foreign Secretary?
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
People really are risking misunderestimating her, I feel.
Comments
Met Office still saying peak here between 6 and 7.
So maybe higher still.
It. Is. A. Disgrace.
Reversing that mistake is rational, not a screw loose. You don't fix the economy by raising taxes ever higher on workers in order to build up war chests for grey vote sweeties.
These are higher figures than I was expecting.
Conservative female halfwits are given no easier ride than male Conservative halfwits. Such is the extent of equality in the party.
I’m getting these from the Netweather forum, but it’s usually reliable the same way PB is reliable for polls and elections
Air travel chaos, after meet with the Moldova President, prevented return. Saddened to lose the whip.
I carry on - good to be in ODESA and meet the impressive Mil Governor Marchenko to seek ways of re-opening the port & get that vital grain out.
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1549400861159350272?s=20&t=kgogdYYlVkEjthIzGvyzRA
Liz is proposing to do what Brown did in 2004-2007, run a huge deficit in the run up to a recession. It was a terrible idea then and it's a terrible idea now.
If it was up to me I'd be banging on the door of spending cuts and taxes on gross wealth with some overshoot to allow for fiscal flexibility to cut specific taxes on production and income for working age people.
I dont even think she is that. She has delivered in ways the party likes and thrived across multiple PMs, she has sone substance.
But Mordaunt seems more likeable, and less in hock to JRM and the scooby gang.
If reversing that mistake is not affordable, then what can be?
The Treasury needs to be told the golden goose can't be plucked anymore and to make do with what resources it has. If that means no more sweeties at election time for the grey voters, they'll just have to suck that up.
If that means the Tories lose, so be it. Better that, than the alternative.
Other notables: Cleverly, Knight (currently head of the Culture Select Committee), Coffey, Kwarteng, Trevelyan, plus of course Rees-Mogg, Dorries, Braverman, Baker, and IDS.
"I detect an element of misogyny in the criticism of Truss. If a generic male Tory - say Ben Wallace - had the same record and the same positions, he wouldn't be treated as some kind of barely sane halfwit in the way Truss is."
No, it would be misandry. I'd work on the basis that if politicans can't be either use nor ornament, I'll settle for one out of two. Is that asking too much?
It could all explode very quickly. Truss's CoE announces tax cuts and Rishi goes straight on TV and says he (and a group of likeminded MPs) can't vote for it so the Budget won't pass the Commons.
They can't allow the Govt to lose a Budget (which would mean a GE) so they will instead go for an immediate vote of no confidence in Truss. Will be very easy to get 54 letters.
All Rishi wants to do is put taxes up so he can have more money to give sweeties for grey voters. He won't do anything for us, just further pamper the grey.
I think she's smart and hard working, and suspect she'll grow into the role of PM.
That said, I do worry that she's a little doctrinaire on the economics side. In particular, I think the world is a little different to 1980, and the room to accelerate economies via tax cuts much more limited. (Not least because in 1980 we underconsumed, and now we overconsume. Cutting taxes to drive additional consumption therefore makes our imbalances worse...)
If the Ukraine crisis is resolved with Russia failing (which I think it will, and which is more likely if Truss is PM than Sunak), then the cost of living crisis is likely to be reversed surprisingly quickly.
Combine that with a negotiated peace with the EU, and it is not implausible that Ms Truss could manage a 1992 type result next time around, and almost certainly to the detriment of the LDs in the South.
"Major incident declared in London as fires burn"
Perhaps you missed the times I called Sir Gavin Williamson the political Frank Spencer
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/08/gavin-williamson-has-done-another-whoopsie/
Or the time I said David Davis was useful as a marzipan dildo.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/06/07/this-is-more-of-a-dieppe-raid-than-a-d-day-success-for-dd/
A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding suggests they can't be, can they?
Beats Taiwan FFS.
I don't agree with her views at all, and have heard from civil servants that she has some pretty big delusions of grandeur... but that's not exactly unusual for a politician.
But I was going to give the Liz critique a rest anyway.
Maybe Special Ambassador to the Ukraine, if he wants it. The UK has played quite a major roll in coordinating support and equipment from other countries. Boris might be a good person to do that. But I think he will be looking to earn a lot more money.
The only difference is that Liz has said she'll do so by reverse Sunak's NI hike.
Sunak has said he'll cut Income Tax, which means that the NI hike is locked in, but pensioners benefit from lower income tax while not facing higher NI.
So which would you prefer - NI hike reversed, or NI hike kept and Income Tax cut on pensioners?
https://twitter.com/uklabour/status/1549337977704402954?s=21&t=yXoJAEQn8gpQ-h0YNByv0g
But I've gone from quite enjoying the weather to absolutely pouring with sweat and having to work a bit harder to breathe. The air suddenly feels like a coffin.
I'm still indoors - my theory is that the temperature of the house, especially upstairs, lags the outdoor temperature by some time, and swings slightly more wildly.
Off for a cool shower.
There may still be places that haven't quite peaked, but they start from a degree or two lower.
A few days ago I predicted “39.8C in London or Cambs”
I was 0.5C out, and Coningsby is 40 miles north of Cambs. Not too shabby
(Not sure I’ve ever seen Truss favourability measured in a Scottish poll.)
The Tories problem is the mirror of Labour's post Brown. An exhausted government with no purpose other than "keep the other lot out, their are evil and their policies are mental", and yet they are so exhausted they haven't noticed they have co-opted all of the most mental policies they really oppose.
Labour faffed around with a weak Ed Milliband, failed to understand why they were lost, and then put forward the 2015 candidates of hell, to emerge with Jezbollah to lead them across the political Styx into Hades. The Tories are prepping their own Styxian boat for departure...
So whilst I happen to agree she's probably more able than him, they are demonstrably of similar rank, so a comparison to him is not belittling her to second rank.
It proves a man gets belittled as much as she, even one of similar rank.
https://members.parliament.uk/Government/Cabinet
Ho ho.
Copied. Pasted.
So yes, why not. They can run through until 2025, and why not stick another change of PM through, back come Boris, who spaffs out a load of Christmas cheer from his sack in a Christmas election campaign.
She started quite behind and is only climbing as a second, third, or even fourth preference…
Indoor and outdoor about evens, so have just opened it all up and have fan blowing air out of a window to catch the cooling as soon as it kicks in.
Sat night min: 23.5
Sun max: 30.5
Sun night min: 26.0
Mon max: 34.0
Mon night min: 28.5
Tues max (so far): 35.5
Downstairs is laggier but has reached 28-29 today.
I think today outside, judging by car thermometer is about same as yesterday.
Met Office now warning of thunderstorms with up to 60mph gusts of wind for the NE of England. Fun times.
If she was proposing to take an axe to spending to cut taxes that would at least be credible economically (though politically brutal). But borrowing to cut taxes? With one policy she ends for a generation not only the Tories last shred of economic credibility, but also any attack they could try and make about Labour's own economic issues.
You supporting that makes almost as much sense as BF supporting Badenoch.
38° + 25% humidity = bearably hot.
35° + 75% humidity = hell.
Rish's error with NI was not introducing a hypothecated health and social care (income) tax. He would also have had a more defensible position by increasing income tax and abolishing the stupid variation of allowances and child support levels. It all started with New Labour - not increasing income tax base rates is a ludicrous fetish.
It'd be taking money from the young (who have debts) and handing it to the old (who have interest earning deposits).
No shit Sherlock she's one of the most substantial political figures of this generation of MPs.
At that point if you are mad enough, any incoherent stupidity can seem like a least worse option than not acting. I can't see that it would be Boris as I doubt he will still be an MP, but bin the leader for a quick swap and a radical change of direction? Why not, when the alternative is losing badly?