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Liz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,163
edited July 2022 in General
imageLiz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

This follows the latest round of voting which saw:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    First as Truss will be in the members vote and Labour will be at the next election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Tories heading for an epochal defeat in 2025
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Tories heading for an epochal defeat in 2025

    On the upside, Kemi can take over as leader.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Well, Starmer will be delighting in this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,999
    edited July 2022
    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Time to review all my bets on Labour not to win a majority at GE2024.
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    This contest has been run far too quickly - and the Tories will suffer for it.

    Suspect turn out in the members election will be low.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Starmer vs Truss will be an exciting election campaign.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....

    Are you kidding? They voted in Iain Duncan Smith.
  • ThePoliticalPartyThePoliticalParty Posts: 446
    We've had peak Rish!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Nasty fire in east London.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The Conservative Party believe that cosplaying Thatcher will keep them the Red Wall? Well, it’s a view I suppose.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....

    The Truss Bot is about to take over if that betting is right.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ThePoliticalParty said:

    We've had peak Rish!

    You're one of the best newer posters. Really enjoying your contributions.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Rishi now has to promise some immediate tax cuts to match Truss.

    Just saying "fairytales" and a future unspecified something won't be enough.

    Problem is, would any Tory member actually believe him?

    And the sort of tax cuts we would prefer (fuel duty) aren't ones that your typical freebie loving Tory party member pensioner cares about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    https://www.weatherhq.co.uk/weather-station/coningsby-royal-air-force-base
    RAF Coningsby hits 40.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    edited July 2022
    TGOHF22 said:

    This contest has been run far too quickly - and the Tories will suffer for it.

    Suspect turn out in the members election will be low.

    Will we ever know turnout if Tories can’t count how many members they have?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer vs Truss will be an exciting election campaign.

    The dull against the poor.

    Dull wins
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    What's going on with Heathrow, has it peaked early ?
  • TGOHF22TGOHF22 Posts: 32
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    A rainbow coalition is probably favourite after the next GE.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    If Sunak is a more accomplished performer than Truss in the campaign, he could still win over the membership.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MarqueeMark said:

    Dear God.....

    If there is one saving grace with LT, is that she is almost certain to continue the support for Ukraine.

    I wouldn't have trusted RS to do that, despite his words.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Still time for twists and turns, but I think Liz has Rishi's number

    His best attempt in the debates was a lame 'hur, you used to be a LD'. If that's the best he can do she will wipe the floor with him and make her own ineptitude a sign of being 'real'.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    If Liz does become PM the Conservatives will have to get rid of her before 2024 surely?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Truss PM, Kemi CoE dream team. 👍
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Slackbladder said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer vs Truss will be an exciting election campaign.

    The dull against the poor.

    Dull wins
    Genuinely Starmer couldn't dream for a better outcome. This is the ideal scenario I mentioned when he became leader!
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    In Truss we trust.

    If Truss had any sense she would make Badenoch Home Secretary yesterday.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    15 minutes and Liz Truss is favourite but no longer odds-on.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.18 Liz Truss 46%
    2.42 Rishi Sunak 41%
    8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
    370 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2.12 Liz Truss 47%
    2.44 Rishi Sunak 41%
    7.4 Penny Mordaunt 14%

    To be in final two
    1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
    1.25 Liz Truss 80%
    4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited July 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is like John Redwood winning the 1995 leadership election.

    Hahaha.

    I'll never forget Tony Marlow standing at the front of the gaggle of Redwood supporters for his press conference in the committee room, resplendent in his loudly and proudly dated pink striped blazer. It was on a hot day just like today's too I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    edited July 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    What's going on with Heathrow, has it peaked early ?

    As forecast - the heat dome is drifting to the NE

    As the heavy rain reaches Bath and Bournemouth...and it's looking grey to the west from here on the Island, and the first rumble of distant thunder
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    AlistairM said:

    FPT

    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!

    DougSeal said:

    The Conservative Party believe that cosplaying Thatcher will keep them the Red Wall? Well, it’s a view I suppose.

    Both of these views surely can't be right at the same time?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    I can’t figure out if MPs are generally so well insulated to the realities of public perception that they go for Truss

    Or they genuinely think she’s going to deliver “something”
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Truss PM, Kemi CoE dream team. 👍


    Maybe Kemi would be more effective as Home Secretary....??
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    The Tory party are taking the piss if they impose Truss on the country.

    They were elected on a mandate to level up. She’s gonna ditch it all and go straight for tax cuts.

    Economic illiteracy. Political insanity.
  • FormerToryOrangeFormerToryOrange Posts: 112
    That's the Tory MPs just got rid of their only shot at winning the next election. Stupid.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    GIN1138 said:

    If Liz does become PM the Conservatives will have to get rid of her before 2024 surely?

    If the numbers in the polls don’t recover. Which they won’t under Truss. Then we can repeat this all again
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    TGOHF22 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    As Liz Truss held the position of President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats (a position Icarus also held - though without the Democrats bit) I hope that she is a sleeper who will destroy the Tories from the inside!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    TGOHF22 said:

    This contest has been run far too quickly - and the Tories will suffer for it.

    Suspect turn out in the members election will be low.

    Why would running it slower have made a difference? The top candidates are two longstanding frontrunners and the long running dark horse candidate (if that's not a contradiction). The MPs know them all, and have had time to hear from them all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Jesus Christ!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Driver said:

    AlistairM said:

    FPT

    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!

    DougSeal said:

    The Conservative Party believe that cosplaying Thatcher will keep them the Red Wall? Well, it’s a view I suppose.

    Both of these views surely can't be right at the same time?
    That’s the thing about opinions. One of us will be wrong. However you could reconcile us by pointing out that Boris was losing his lustre there anyway.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Lord, forgive them, they know not what they do! Least worst option Sunak, but he won’t get past the members. Second least bad, Truss, but the Trade War with the EU the Remainer Apostate will lead us into almost guarantees PM Starmer in 2024. As for what’s left, haven’t we learned the lesson of handing PM to a gaslighting liar?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Major incident for the fire brigade declared in London
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    The pictures of that fire are awful...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    I'm excited to see the new HYUFD software script when this ends, considering that only a couple of weeks ago Rishi was a vile unelectable traitor, while Truss was an unelectable Lib Dem Remainer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,820
    darkage said:

    If Sunak is a more accomplished performer than Truss in the campaign, he could still win over the membership.

    We can only hope. If Truss is PM removing Boris is going to look like a terrible mistake.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    In Truss we trust.

    Gove will now be negotiating and playing Sunak and Truss off against each other.

    Boy, he must be having the time of his life.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MoonRabbit said:

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    “Zero chance…”? Bold.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Icarus said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    As Liz Truss held the position of President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats (a position Icarus also held - though without the Democrats bit) I hope that she is a sleeper who will destroy the Tories from the inside!
    Insert future pub quiz question about the first Lib Dem Prime Minister here.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
    You must have bet big.

    I'm only in the £400-600 space. A tenth of yours!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord, forgive them, they know not what they do! Least worst option Sunak, but he won’t get past the members. Second least bad, Truss, but the Trade War with the EU the Remainer Apostate will lead us into almost guarantees PM Starmer in 2024. As for what’s left, haven’t we learned the lesson of handing PM to a gaslighting liar?

    Ho ho.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    TGOHF22 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    Sure! And I'm not seeking independence. But the government of the UK is a corrupt disfunctional shit show. And if the Tories elect an incompetent sneering harridan who continues to disregard Scottish democracy, it only increases the likelihood of a yes vote when it eventually gets put to us again.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Icarus said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    As Liz Truss held the position of President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats (a position Icarus also held - though without the Democrats bit) I hope that she is a sleeper who will destroy the Tories from the inside!
    You don't need to hope for it, if Truss is leader she will do it without trying...

    Bozo had Covid to deal with and the ability to throw money at the problem.

    Truss has an energy crisis to deal with (that will become very real when it dawns on Germany that Russia has shut down the gas pipeline permanently) and the money that could be used to solve it has already been spent.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,631
    HYUFD said:

    Champagne corks popping at Labour HQ then if it does indeed end up Truss Tory leader and PM.

    A Cameron A-lister as leader would complete his modernisation project, surely? :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,820
    Leon said:

    *tiny, forlorn voice*

    Maybe Truss will surprise, massively, on the upside. It would be hard for her to UNDERperform expectations

    Truss: hold my beer.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    In Truss we trust.

    Gove will now be negotiating and playing Sunak and Truss off against each other.

    Boy, he must be having the time of his life.
    Are you suggesting he is Kemi's.....er.......client acquirer?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Champagne corks popping at Labour HQ then if it does indeed end up Truss Tory leader and PM.

    Starmer leads Truss by 12% as preferred PM, that is 1997 style defeat at least in voteshare

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1549063999605465089?s=20&t=3_uq_zqmP975cjN3ODN6dw

    You’ll still back her on here, though, which is something.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    DougSeal said:

    Driver said:

    AlistairM said:

    FPT

    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!

    DougSeal said:

    The Conservative Party believe that cosplaying Thatcher will keep them the Red Wall? Well, it’s a view I suppose.

    Both of these views surely can't be right at the same time?
    That’s the thing about opinions. One of us will be wrong. However you could reconcile us by pointing out that Boris was losing his lustre there anyway.
    It's still not reconcilable. Either Truss is Boris without the individual baggage, or she's Thatcher reborn. She can't be both as Thatcherism and Borisism are miles apart.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Time to review all my bets on Labour not to win a majority at GE2024.

    Lay Tory majority is the best one IMHO
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Tories don’t be disheartened. Truss could surprise. One of her strengths is that she appears to have a genuine sense of what she stands for and might offer a coherent programme, which will help ride the economic storm.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    HYUFD said:

    Champagne corks popping at Labour HQ then if it does indeed end up Truss Tory leader and PM.

    Starmer leads Truss by 12% as preferred PM, that is 1997 style defeat at least in voteshare

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1549063999605465089?s=20&t=3_uq_zqmP975cjN3ODN6dw

    We haven't seen results like that since 1997.

    This is looking like a walloping, will we see a marge majority turned into another large majority - but for the other party?

    This really is the AU elections all over again
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    So all three remaining candidates have been odds-on in the last five days. Did anyone ever describe this as a lay-the-favourite market?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    ping said:

    The Tory party are taking the piss if they impose Truss on the country.

    They were elected on a mandate to level up. She’s gonna ditch it all and go straight for tax cuts.

    Economic illiteracy. Political insanity.

    She's going to *borrow money* to pay for tax cuts. The government version of taking out a fraudulent Coronavirus loan, running off with the cash then collapsing the company.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.

    It's the most bizarre accusation
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Icarus said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    As Liz Truss held the position of President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats (a position Icarus also held - though without the Democrats bit) I hope that she is a sleeper who will destroy the Tories from the inside!
    She was in my year at Oxford. I never met her though. Not sure I missed much.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    I fear a major incident is going to happen at the ODI in Greater Newcastle.


  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Casino_Royale said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
    You must have bet big.

    I'm only in the £400-600 space. A tenth of yours!
    £20 @ 250/1

    Can I say thank you to everyone who helped bring Boris down. Either I get that payout, or we get Boris replaced with the even better alternative of Liz Truss. This is a fantastic moment in politics. 😎
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Champagne corks popping at Labour HQ then if it does indeed end up Truss Tory leader and PM.

    Starmer leads Truss by 12% as preferred PM, that is 1997 style defeat at least in voteshare

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1549063999605465089?s=20&t=3_uq_zqmP975cjN3ODN6dw

    … not just Labour HQ…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    MoonRabbit said:

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    Even without the polling id think Truss beats Sunak. She is speaking their language on tax cuts, she was loyal to the end, he doesnt seem great under pressure.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,631
    Leon said:

    *tiny, forlorn voice*

    Maybe Truss will surprise, massively, on the upside. It would be hard for her to UNDERperform expectations

    I do get the feeling that she's the most driven of the candidates, and being underestimated is usually an advantage.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Casino_Royale said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
    You must have bet big.

    I'm only in the £400-600 space. A tenth of yours!
    BR has a £20 bet at 250-1 on Rishi from memory...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Sunak vs Truss is like Djokovic vs Krgios ag z Wimbledon or Spurs vs Chelsea in the FA Cup final. No interest whatsoever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    I wonder if Kemi would have gone through if you'd excluded Tory MPs who've been there for more than 15 years. The answer is probably yes IMO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Razedabode said:

    I can’t figure out if MPs are generally so well insulated to the realities of public perception that they go for Truss

    Or they genuinely think she’s going to deliver “something”

    Erm, don't the members make the final decision.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    The voting itself isn't the thing that has lit up this leadership election rather the debates. And, let's be honest, the lighting up done there was more pyromania than revelation.

    So, my assumption is that it stays orthodox in the next round - any "clever" tactical switching away from Sunak will be very small scale and individual in nature and will not be encouraged by the campaign.

    And that also means, though Badenoch votes will not transfer as a bloc, the bias towards Truss will be enough for Truss / Sunak.

    In any instance, Sunak's member deficit and the likelihood of his opponents blowing it sufficiently to enhance his member support is similar in each case.


  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    Driver said:

    AlistairM said:

    FPT

    Tory MPs need to be thinking that the choice for PM is now either Mordaunt or Truss. Sunak loses to either with members quite handsomely. Truss is continuity-Boris. Is that what they really want?!

    DougSeal said:

    The Conservative Party believe that cosplaying Thatcher will keep them the Red Wall? Well, it’s a view I suppose.

    Both of these views surely can't be right at the same time?
    That’s the thing about opinions. One of us will be wrong. However you could reconcile us by pointing out that Boris was losing his lustre there anyway.
    It's still not reconcilable. Either Truss is Boris without the individual baggage, or she's Thatcher reborn. She can't be both as Thatcherism and Borisism are miles apart.
    Okay. Then one of us is wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    RochdalePioneers said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....

    Are you kidding? They voted in Iain Duncan Smith.
    As LOTO.

    For a bit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I fear a major incident is going to happen at the ODI in Greater Newcastle.

    Just as well they won’t be hosting the football World Cup in the middle of the desert this year then.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.

    The only way I would see that is if PM hoovered up TT's vote (let's say she got all the votes, that would take her to 114 pre-lending) and then "lent" 20+ to Truss to ensure she came third. Obviously wasn't needed in the end but, if you believe that, then PM Is a solid bet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM

    Labour supporters can be happy today.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    RochdalePioneers said:

    ping said:

    The Tory party are taking the piss if they impose Truss on the country.

    They were elected on a mandate to level up. She’s gonna ditch it all and go straight for tax cuts.

    Economic illiteracy. Political insanity.

    She's going to *borrow money* to pay for tax cuts. The government version of taking out a fraudulent Coronavirus loan, running off with the cash then collapsing the company.
    Apt analogy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/uk-lost-up-to-16bn-due-to-and-error-in-covid-loans-schemes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Casino_Royale said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
    You must have bet big.

    I'm only in the £400-600 space. A tenth of yours!
    I think BR bet when Rishi was 250/1
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_JS said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM

    Labour supporters can be happy today.
    … not just Labour supporters…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    Major incident in London declared by Mayor Khan in response to a number of fires. Wants to ban disposable barbecues.
This discussion has been closed.