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Liz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • What do we want?
    Lizzie for Leader

    When do we want it?
    Tomorrow, without a membership vote
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    Deliver, deliver, deliver.

    Special delivery. Guaranteed to deliver. Guaranteed Next Day Delivery.
    Dead on arrival?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    She has recanted that.

    Thoughts and prayers though to the over 150 Tory MPs who will lose their seats if she becomes PM if RedfieldWilton is correct
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    Sure! And I'm not seeking independence. But the government of the UK is a corrupt disfunctional shit show. And if the Tories elect an incompetent sneering harridan who continues to disregard Scottish democracy, it only increases the likelihood of a yes vote when it eventually gets put to us again.
    Provided the SC rules the UK government can refuse an indyref2 it ain't happening again anyway anytime soon
    Depends - Bozo could announce it on September 1st for the Lols.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It gets worse…..it could be Truss vs Mordidn’t:

    From my rough online survey of party members, those who had Kemi Badenoch as their current first choice went overwhelmingly to Truss and Mordaunt, rather than Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/drdavidjeffery/status/1549402943081910272
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    So all of us betting on the next PM after Boris will... No, this must not be allowed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.

    That’s awfully close, isn’t it!

    IMHO, Sunak gets a few more, and Mourdaunt a few less, of the Badenoch votes.
    Agreed. One thing's for sure, without an overwhelming backing from MPs (since we'll never know how the third place backers would go) Sunak cannot run on the basis of being the clear frontrunner. It's a toss up, so he's got to persuade that the public will hate Truss but not him.

    And hope they care.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
    The tail end of the wartime generation, though it continued for a bit in Thatcher's cabinet.
    Roy Jenkins was at Bletchley Park; Healey in the army; Benn was a bomber pilot; Callaghan a matelot; not sure about the other two. I suppose Major Heath would have been LotO still.
    Crosland was a Para and Foot was medically rejected (but is said by some to have been one of the stay-behind-if-Germany-invaded Auxiliaries: how reliably, I do not know).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    Insanity. Schools are already struggling to recruit teachers. The Tories really hate state education don't they.
    Why not just pay? Isn't everyone rich?
    Don't forget the extra hours that now need to be spent in School buildings....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    So all of us betting on the next PM after Boris will... No, this must not be allowed.
    LOL. That explains why Starmer is into 500 for next prime minister!! Sharper minds than mine!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    It gets worse…..it could be Truss vs Mordidn’t:

    From my rough online survey of party members, those who had Kemi Badenoch as their current first choice went overwhelmingly to Truss and Mordaunt, rather than Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/drdavidjeffery/status/1549402943081910272

    You’re not a Rishi fan either, though, are you.

    Keir probably wants Truss, Rishi and Mordaunt in that order.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Sagand said:

    moonshine said:

    Sunak more or less stood still and so did Kemi. Mordaunt gained a few not many. So where did TR’s vote go?

    Not Truss obvs. One assumes his vote largely went to Kemi, Kemi’s went to Truss in equal measure, the uniting of the ERG.

    Which means Kemi’s vote would not be as rich a hunting ground for Truss as one might assume.

    The same scenario could be true but with TT’s vote to Sunak and a chunk of Sunak’s to Kemi. Less likely but similar outcome.

    I can see there being one vote in this at the end 😐

    Or it mainly went to Sunak, who also lent out a chunk of his vote to Truss to guarantee Badenoch was eliminated (the candidate he was weakest against) now in the final round he can choose his opponent (so don't rule out a massive swing back toward Mordaunt).
    Would love to believe this is true. But no, sorry, I think the dye is cast.

    Liz is our next PM, merrily leading the Tories into oblivion. We just have to hope she can’t do too much damage to the country in her two years as our overlord.
  • eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    Insanity. Schools are already struggling to recruit teachers. The Tories really hate state education don't they.
    Why not just pay? Isn't everyone rich?
    Don't forget the extra hours that now need to be spent in School buildings....
    You're one of my favourite posters, you like my posts!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    Deliver, deliver, deliver.

    Special delivery. Guaranteed to deliver. Guaranteed Next Day Delivery.
    Dead on arrival?
    Hermes - delivered to a different address and customer support is categoric that you actually do live at the courier's home address.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    She has recanted that.

    Thoughts and prayers though to the over 150 Tory MPs who will lose their seats if she becomes PM if RedfieldWilton is correct
    Sure, but you’ll be her most fervent supporter on here even when she does.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MaxPB said:

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    Isn't that less than 1% of members?
    It's a load of nonsense. Even if they can add him, for sake of argument, the whole premise is that it is unfair and invalid that he was removed without reference to the membership, which is not how the party process works. That process has been gone over plenty for everyone to know that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    She looks non-daft there, so that's good.

    Responding (late) to @RichardNabavi's point that Rishi is the best of a flaky bunch, I can understand why the campaign so far justifies that surmise, but I don't think it's fair. Had the other candidates been subjected to the same tarring and feathering that PM has over the course of the campaign, none would have a shred of credibility left.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    Insanity. Schools are already struggling to recruit teachers. The Tories really hate state education don't they.
    Why not just pay? Isn't everyone rich?
    Well quite. And anyone who isn't doesn't count.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    She may have the "steely gaze"... But then she opens her mouth! She can barely string a coherent sentence together?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    The Tories have already voted? That's earlier than the two previous rounds!

    Each day's timetable depends on Commons business, I think. Brady said tomorrow voting is 1 to 3 with the result at 4 - I assume that's so as not to clash with PMQs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited July 2022

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    The Campbell-Bannermans have a fine tradition of kicking the Tories out of power for a decade and more.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    After CCHQ left it too late with Theresa May, no doubt Liz will immediately be bundled off to drama school to learn how to deliver a speech.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak's lead is bigger than it looks. I think he has lent votes to Truss to ensure the elimination of wild card Badenoch and a run-off against one of the 2 candidates he's most comfortable opposing in the Final. So, next vote, he'll pull away and Truss will not gain as many net votes as people are assuming. She - Truss - is a standout lay IMO if she's gone odds on.

    Will he lend votes to Mordaunt in the next round, or is it too risky.
    I think he'll want to max out his final vote and will feel confident of beating either Truss or Mordaunt in the Final despite various polls saying he'd be the underdog. These short intense glamourpuss MPs hustings in febrile Westminster are one thing - doing it for 6 weeks on a wet Wednesday night up and down the shires and in the red wall is something else.

    My ATTENTION GRABBING call for Sept - which I'll never refer to again if it proves to be bollox - is PM Rishi Sunak and CoE Michael Gove.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    Ah yes, very Theresa May vibes.
    Strong and stable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Why can't I flag a moderator's post..
    Instead of flagging Robert's posts, just post this.


    His true genius is that he already did.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4034130#Comment_4034130
  • HYUFD said:

    The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me

    She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.

    If she is PM she likely loses the redwall to Labour, much of the One Nation Tory Home counties to the LDs and the populist and traditional right to RefUK, Farage was scathing about her yesterday and might be tempted to return to lead the party if he smells prey.

    It could be annihilation on 1997 scales, it could even be annihilation on Canada 1993 scales if all the above occurred
    People say HYUFD is a one trick pony but this is some excellent analysis. God help us if this is how they see things!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Looks like temperatures may have topped out now.
    Which means that we can add to this graphic that circulated recently:
    image

    With this:


    (I did have to extend the top of the graphic a little, I'm afraid. Good job we didn't hit 42 degrees, it would have looked ridiculous.

    We need to get to the middle of the century asap?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    She has recanted that.

    Thoughts and prayers though to the over 150 Tory MPs who will lose their seats if she becomes PM if RedfieldWilton is correct
    Yes, indeed. I will be thinking of them, and praying that they do. We have to clear the stables of this whole corrupt mess. But I bet it's the wrong ones who lose their seats.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    After CCHQ left it too late with Theresa May, no doubt Liz will immediately be bundled off to drama school to learn how to deliver a speech.
    Liz will probably turn up at the wrong school and learn how to deliver a baby.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Liz Truss is a cyborg assassin, sent back in time from 2069 to destroy the UK.

    Discuss.
  • Theresa May was originally thought of quite well, I remember her original speech being well received.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    After CCHQ left it too late with Theresa May, no doubt Liz will immediately be bundled off to drama school to learn how to deliver a speech.
    And Warwick for some economics training and the LSE for some foreign affairs, the 2 years will be up before we know it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    She has recanted that.

    Thoughts and prayers though to the over 150 Tory MPs who will lose their seats if she becomes PM if RedfieldWilton is correct
    Sure, but you’ll be her most fervent supporter on here even when she does.
    No, that will likely be BartholomewRoberts, I will still support the party but despite Truss not because of her
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me

    She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.

    If she is PM she likely loses the redwall to Labour, much of the One Nation Tory Home counties to the LDs and the populist and traditional right to RefUK, Farage was scathing about her yesterday and might be tempted to return to lead the party if he smells prey.

    It could be annihilation on 1997 scale, it could even be annihilation on Canada 1993 scale if all the above occurred
    Not a fan, then ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    After CCHQ left it too late with Theresa May, no doubt Liz will immediately be bundled off to drama school to learn how to deliver a speech.
    I thought we concluded she was already a graduate of public-speaking school>?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    The temperature in the Tory party has increased a lot in the last hour. Haven't heard any more news from the Met Office. 4pm now. Temperatures now peaked?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    Liz Truss is a cyborg assassin, sent back in time from 2069 to destroy the UK.

    Discuss.

    Was that after the SNP were ridicuously denied their 14th referendum or before?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    The biggest winner from this process?



  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Theresa May was originally thought of quite well, I remember her original speech being well received.

    Theresa had a Home Counties schoolmistressy dutifulness about her which I think went down well initially.

    Truss doesn’t even have that. The Tories are doomed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    It gets worse…..it could be Truss vs Mordidn’t:

    From my rough online survey of party members, those who had Kemi Badenoch as their current first choice went overwhelmingly to Truss and Mordaunt, rather than Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/drdavidjeffery/status/1549402943081910272

    You’re not a Rishi fan either, though, are you.

    Keir probably wants Truss, Rishi and Mordaunt in that order.

    I honestly don't think he cares that much. But Mordaunt is probably the biggest concern - if there is one - because she is so totally a blank canvas. It's possible she might be able to unite the Tories and weather the cost of living crisis, but it's equally possible she completely tanks. Not one of them is close to scary.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Major incident in London declared by Mayor Khan in response to a number of fires. Wants to ban disposable barbecues.

    The number of idiots who put them in insane places. That, combined with the fashion for decking in small gardens - popular for rental properties.....
    Out here they’ve started locking up people for cooking with barbecues on balconies of cladded apartment blocks - after half a dozen buildings went properly on fire!

    Never underestimate just how moronic the morons can be.
    There was a story last week or the week before where a child ended up with category A burns because someone had buried a life disposable BBQ on a beach and the child ran across it unaware.

    Remember that Sand can get to 400-500c without much difficulty (see the energy storage posts earlier)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited July 2022
    Not sure Truss is worse than Johnson. She is a bit less feckless, incompetent and egregiously dishonest than possibly the worst prime minister of all time.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,145
    edited July 2022
    AlistairM said:

    The temperature in the Tory party has increased a lot in the last hour. Haven't heard any more news from the Met Office. 4pm now. Temperatures now peaked?

    They're working together in inverse proportion, I think. Tomorrow it will be 10 degrees cooler. Except Liz Truss to storm the stage in a fireman's outfit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited July 2022

    Liz Truss is a cyborg assassin, sent back in time from 2069 to destroy the UK.

    Discuss.

    What's to discuss ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    All trains between Euston and Milton Keynes cancelled.
    If this had lasted a week, nobody would be going anywhere much.
  • FWIW, I think escalated war with Russia via some accident or other is far more likely with a 'gung ho' Truss is charge.

    Another reason why she's the best candidate. 😎

    Glorious sunshine and the leadership race is going as well as could have been hoped for. What a great day. 😎
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    FF43 said:

    Not sure Truss is worse than Johnson. She is a bit less feckless and egregiously dishonest than possibly the worst prime minister of all time.

    Continuation Bozo is worse than keeping Bozo at least he had a chance of retaining Red Wall seats on the basis that he could still fool some people some of the time.

    Truss can't fool anyone any of the time...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    I cannot believe that the Tory Party has signed up to assisted suicide. I continue to think that sanity will prevail and Sunak will beat Truss in the members' vote. Labour members were stupid enough to vote for Corbyn, but that was in opposition, and I always thought that Tories were basically realists who believed in power above all else.
    If they choose Truss I think they face an extinction level event at the next election but God help us all in the meantime.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Leon said:

    *tiny, forlorn voice*

    Maybe Truss will surprise, massively, on the upside. It would be hard for her to UNDERperform expectations

    She may also get lucky. Ukraine could win the war quickly, inflation could ease. Lots of things are possible, I guess.

    I'm still looking more at the Canning and Goderich end of the table rather than Walpole or Pitt the Younger.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    Yes, I suspect Team Sunak will think they can overhaul a 19-point deficit over the summer. The one strategic problem is that it coincides exactly with the school holidays, so minimal attention paid to politics by the public or indeed the Tory membership.
    What 19 point deficit? Member polling is flawed as a proven fact, every member poll that comes out is like from a random number generator, yet markets and media suck it down like biblical truth.

    Sunak has a sane approach to managing this severe economic crisis - Truss turned her campaign launch into an escape room game, and failed it. Sunak beats her at least 60 40, even if Truss makes the last two.

    To suggest anything else insults the Tory membership.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    The biggest winner from this process?



    Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
  • My Mum hates Liz Truss
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    The temperature has fallen quickly in Southampton in the last 30 minutes and it looks like rain is on the way shortly
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    dixiedean said:

    All trains between Euston and Milton Keynes cancelled.
    If this had lasted a week, nobody would be going anywhere much.

    Next time round it will be 3 days rather than 2. The great unknown is will that be in 2035, 2025 or next month.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
    The tail end of the wartime generation, though it continued for a bit in Thatcher's cabinet.
    Roy Jenkins was at Bletchley Park; Healey in the army; Benn was a bomber pilot; Callaghan a matelot; not sure about the other two. I suppose Major Heath would have been LotO still.
    Healey was a little more than in the army.
    He was beachmaster at Anzio.
    Aha! Wokeists blame Winston Churchill for that botched landing. When the "true" villain was Denis Healey!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    Yes, I suspect Team Sunak will think they can overhaul a 19-point deficit over the summer. The one strategic problem is that it coincides exactly with the school holidays, so minimal attention paid to politics by the public or indeed the Tory membership.
    What 19 point deficit? Member polling is flawed as a proven fact, every member poll that comes out is like from a random number generator, yet markets and media suck it down like biblical truth.

    Sunak has a sane approach to managing this severe economic crisis - Truss turned her campaign launch into an escape room game, and failed it. Sunak beats her at least 60 40, even if Truss makes the last two.

    To suggest anything else insults the Tory membership.
    Yes, okay, you might have a point about the member polling!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    It gets worse…..it could be Truss vs Mordidn’t:

    From my rough online survey of party members, those who had Kemi Badenoch as their current first choice went overwhelmingly to Truss and Mordaunt, rather than Sunak.

    https://twitter.com/drdavidjeffery/status/1549402943081910272

    You’re not a Rishi fan either, though, are you.

    Keir probably wants Truss, Rishi and Mordaunt in that order.

    I’m not a fan of any of the remaining contenders - Sunak is the least bad option.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Leon said:

    *tiny, forlorn voice*

    Maybe Truss will surprise, massively, on the upside. It would be hard for her to UNDERperform expectations

    She may also get lucky. Ukraine could win the war quickly, inflation could ease. Lots of things are possible, I guess.

    I'm still looking more at the Canning and Goderich end of the table rather than Walpole or Pitt the Younger.
    I mean. I’m trying to be objective here and say - well, what if she’s a lucky general.

    Ukraine gets sorted.

    Cost of living crisis is resolved.

    Economy performs well.

    … and that all gives her the chance to go into a GE campaign saying (probably disingenuously) “I fixed things, I righted the ship, trust me with another 5 years”…

    I STILL think she loses.

    Because she’s a terrible campaigner leading a 14 year old (at that time) government.

    The Tories are doomed.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM

    If that doesn’t spook MPs, then huge swathes need to lose their seat at the next GE. Preferably starting with Redwood, Cash, Baker, Rees-Mogg and Dorries.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    eek said:

    The biggest winner from this process?



    Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
    True- it's pretty clear which rabbit hole the Conservatives will go down next time. But it's going to be easy for Boris to point at what's coming next and say "You shouldn't have got rid of me. I told you life was better under Boris."
  • HYUFD said:

    The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me

    She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
    It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.

    Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I’m grateful to my colleagues and the party members who have supported me.

    This campaign began less than two weeks ago. What we’ve achieved demonstrates the level of support for our vision of change for our country and for the Conservative Party.

    Thank you.


    https://twitter.com/kemibadenoch/status/1549406569120645122
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited July 2022
    MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    Worse than that, we'll be forced to the join the Euro.

    I genuinely fear for the long term future of the party.

    We're about to deliver the equivalents of the winter of discontent and Black Wednesday in the space of one parliament.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    Yes, I suspect Team Sunak will think they can overhaul a 19-point deficit over the summer. The one strategic problem is that it coincides exactly with the school holidays, so minimal attention paid to politics by the public or indeed the Tory membership.
    What 19 point deficit? Member polling is flawed as a proven fact, every member poll that comes out is like from a random number generator, yet markets and media suck it down like biblical truth.

    Sunak has a sane approach to managing this severe economic crisis - Truss turned her campaign launch into an escape room game, and failed it. Sunak beats her at least 60 40, even if Truss makes the last two.

    To suggest anything else insults the Tory membership.
    You believe that the Tory party is sane - yet we have no evidence to proof this and a fair amount of evidence (HYUFD) that the opposite is true...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022
    FF43 said:

    Not sure Truss is worse than Johnson. She is a bit less feckless, incompetent and egregiously dishonest than possibly the worst prime minister of all time.

    How fortunate we are.

    But she also lacks his optimistic bumbling charm. It wire out its welcome even among many who liked him, but he did have that.

    HYUFD has it right - she's trying for continuity Boris but without his advantages.

    It'll win her the members race butvit is not sustainable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    The Tories have already voted? That's earlier than the two previous rounds!

    Yes

    image
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    Worse than that, we'll be forced to the join the Euro.
    Those Liberal Remainer types are sneaky...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    OT. Just looking back on a few older threads. This one from 16th July hasn't aged well.

    If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

    Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM

    If that doesn’t spook MPs, then huge swathes need to lose their seat at the next GE. Preferably starting with Redwood, Cash, Baker, Rees-Mogg and Dorries.
    Won't Ms D, at least, be leaving for the Lords anyway?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    15 minutes and Liz Truss is favourite but no longer odds-on.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.18 Liz Truss 46%
    2.42 Rishi Sunak 41%
    8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
    370 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2.12 Liz Truss 47%
    2.44 Rishi Sunak 41%
    7.4 Penny Mordaunt 14%

    To be in final two
    1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
    1.25 Liz Truss 80%
    4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%

    In case Cruddas gets his way and has Boris added to the ballot, someone (not me!) has taken all the 1000 against Starmer.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.12 Liz Truss 47%
    2.38 Rishi Sunak 42%
    8.6 Penny Mordaunt 12%
    320 Keir Starmer
    400 Dominic Raab

    Next Conservative leader
    2.08 Liz Truss 48%
    2.46 Rishi Sunak 41%
    8.2 Penny Mordaunt 12%

    To be in final two
    1.03 Rishi Sunak 97%
    1.18 Liz Truss 85%
    4.3 Penny Mordaunt 23%
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
    She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Both Rishi Sunak (46%) and Penny Mordaunt (45%) do relatively well on being seen as a good potential prime minister.

    By comparison, only 35% of those that watched Sunday's debate think Liz Truss would make a good prime mistier, while 61% think she would make a bad prime minister https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1549410027320102912/photo/1
  • MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    And yet you were just as opposed to Rishi's NI tax rise as I was.

    So if the NI rise is reversed, with borrowing, would you support or oppose that?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    I’m grateful to my colleagues and the party members who have supported me.

    This campaign began less than two weeks ago. What we’ve achieved demonstrates the level of support for our vision of change for our country and for the Conservative Party.

    Thank you.


    https://twitter.com/kemibadenoch/status/1549406569120645122

    Next Tory leader market, get on her.

    She’ll take over after Liz leads them into the wilderness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    Worse than that, we'll be forced to the join the Euro.
    Those Liberal Remainer types are sneaky...
    We're playing the long game.

    June 2016 was our Dunkerque, our Overlord is coming soon.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    My Mum hates Liz Truss

    My mum Loves Liz.

    And I have promised my Dad Truss can’t beat Rishi, which he has been terrified about since Boris resigned. So it can’t happen. It simply can’t,
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Sagand said:

    moonshine said:

    Sunak more or less stood still and so did Kemi. Mordaunt gained a few not many. So where did TR’s vote go?

    Not Truss obvs. One assumes his vote largely went to Kemi, Kemi’s went to Truss in equal measure, the uniting of the ERG.

    Which means Kemi’s vote would not be as rich a hunting ground for Truss as one might assume.

    The same scenario could be true but with TT’s vote to Sunak and a chunk of Sunak’s to Kemi. Less likely but similar outcome.

    I can see there being one vote in this at the end 😐

    Or it mainly went to Sunak, who also lent out a chunk of his vote to Truss to guarantee Badenoch was eliminated (the candidate he was weakest against) now in the final round he can choose his opponent (so don't rule out a massive swing back toward Mordaunt).
    Yep. I actually think it's pretty obvious that is what happened. But I don't think he'll lend votes in the final round. Too risky and plus he'll want to max out for that. Have as strong an MP endorsement as possible going into the run-off.

    Truss no longer odds on, I see. Still a clear fav though. Not sure I agree with that - but it could be I'm completely out of touch with the modern Tory party. I certainly try to be.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    That's the bit that annoys me most.

    The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.

    Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
    She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
    Is there anyone who we cant say that of?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    HYUFD said:

    The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me

    She isn't a traditional Tory, she is a libertarian Liberal in Tory clothing.
    It's so cute, you say that as if it's a bad thing.

    Though I for one will only stick to supporting her if she remains (pun intended) a libertarian Liberal, you will be her greatest fan no matter what she does from the second she wins.
    There's nothing libertarian about borrowing from future generations to fund today's tax cuts. Rishi may be a bit dull and not have a good back story but I trust he won't bankrupt the nation. Liz and Penny are playing very dangerously with the national credit card and suggesting we run a very loose fiscal policy when inflation is already running at 9% and we're borrowing £135bn per year already.

    I don't agree with the NI rise but I do recognise that we have a structural deficit, I'd have closed it with other taxes that target older people and spending cuts that also target older people and gross wealth exclusive of primary residences (the latter would hurt people like me, a lot I expect) but Liz and Penny both seem to deny that we need to be prudent and bring the budget into balance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    If you're wondering why George Osborne left parliament, this is what he knew was coming.

    Brexit is a hard left project espoused by Michael Foot, it was inevitable other hard left policies would be taken over by the Brexiteers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
    She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
    Don't know yet, do we? And her Maggie cosplay is also not going to help with many of the older voters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:

    Both Rishi Sunak (46%) and Penny Mordaunt (45%) do relatively well on being seen as a good potential prime minister.

    By comparison, only 35% of those that watched Sunday's debate think Liz Truss would make a good prime mistier, while 61% think she would make a bad prime minister https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1549410027320102912/photo/1

    Mrs May without the charisma…..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Rain!

    Meanwhile looking at the official Met Office 1500 readings, Lincs has got a 39.7 C, most of the E Midlands around 39 C, the Harrogate area at 37.6C,
  • eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    I really hope that the borrow to fund tax cuts stuff is all bullshit. That strikes me as a road to national humiliation and an IMF bailout in 5 years.

    That's the bit that annoys me most.

    The Tory party are going to vote for more sweeties when it's not the time to do it.

    Worse the sweeties are blooming stupid - corporation tax needs to be increased to encourage actual investment, fuel duty is generating inflation everywhere and we need the social care levy so that councils can actually provide social care.
    Bollocks do we need the social care levy, it's just easier for the Treasury to milk people who work for a living than to make tougher choices.

    We need someone not prepared to Go Native to the Treasury orthodoxy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
    She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
    Is there anyone who we cant say that of?
    Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees Mogg could give him a fair run, but there's no *candidate* we can't say it of.

    Penny pulling off a miracle would be the least toxic and the biggest Nicola headache.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Again looking back at earlier threads, this comment from 14th July (after the 2nd round vote) has aged a bit better than some:



    I think those results are reasonable for Truss but slightly disappointing for Mordaunt. With both Hunt and Zahawi dropping out, Mordaunt has only picked up a net +2 compared to Truss, widening the margin over Truss to 19.

    I can't see Badenoch beating Truss for 3rd now even if she got the bulk of Braverman's 27 and I don't think she can rely on Tugenhat's to narrow the gap with Truss. So realistically the final 3 will be Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.

    From where we are now, Mordaunt will pick up more than Truss of Tugenhat's 32, while Truss will pick up more than Mordaunt of Braverman/Badenoch's combined current 76. But the latter pile is more than twice as big as the former. The question is whether that is enough to close the gap of 19 as it stands. In the final ballot I think it is literally going to come down to a handful of votes between Mordaunt and Truss, and both will be behind Sunak.

  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Just seen this. Smart by Labour’s press team.


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Perhaps the final result will be what Rishi’s team want it to be, and I suspect he’d prefer Mordaunt.

    But this result has surprised and shaken me.

    Why has it surprised and shaken you? It was pretty much what I was expecting, even though I don't like it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    The biggest winner from this process?



    Well Bozo's time has been and gone. I can't imagine any situation in which he returned to the leadership of the Tory party.
    October 2024 - The Parliament has just three months to go before the January 2025 general election. The Conservatives under Truss are 25% behind Labour in the polls and the defeat at the next election is going to make John Major's 1997 performance look half decent.

    Panic stricken Con MPs decide on one final throw of the dice... And call on Boris...

    Far-fetched I admit. But the way this lot are behaving, who knows...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    OT. Just looking back on a few older threads. This one from 16th July hasn't aged well.

    If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

    Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.

    There was one where Mordaunt had won the 2024 election after the first ballot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    OT. Just looking back on a few older threads. This one from 16th July hasn't aged well.

    If Truss was any good, she would still have been some threat in this contest even now. But She got herself lost at her own campaign launch, this is magnitude worse than Marcus Brody getting lost in his own museum, Truss got herself lost in effectively just one room, wandering into a dead end, looking left and right and then appearing confused incapable of movement until helped away by a kindly gentleman. Let’s be honest, lost at your own hustings and led away by your staff, you can’t ask to lead a country.

    Her continued presence is making it farcical. The 1922 should have a word.

    Which of those comments have aged badly ?
    (Apart from the implication she couldn't win.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.

    I'm no fan of Truss but that title is sewn up for at least a thousand years. Johnson owns it and his shirt has been retired.
    No, Truss will lose by more than Boris would have. Truss is mostly Boris' policies but less spending and without his charisma
    She is at least less toxic than Bojo in Scotland. Not saying she's not toxic, but she ain't that toxic.
    Liz Truss: "hold my beer".
This discussion has been closed.