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Liz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.

    Or why it would matter if they had.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    I wonder if Kemi would have gone through if you'd excluded Tory MPs who've been there for more than 15 years. The answer is probably yes IMO.

    Well by your criteria it would exclude Gove, so no, she wouldn't have even stood without Gove being the éminence grise.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    DougSeal said:

    Icarus said:

    TGOHF22 said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    As Liz Truss held the position of President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats (a position Icarus also held - though without the Democrats bit) I hope that she is a sleeper who will destroy the Tories from the inside!
    She was in my year at Oxford. I never met her though. Not sure I missed much.
    A chap called Bill Clinton was in my year - he never met me either!
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2V3PrfN98U

    Why is she smiling like that?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer vs Truss will be an exciting election campaign.

    The dull against the poor.

    Dull wins
    Genuinely Starmer couldn't dream for a better outcome. This is the ideal scenario I mentioned when he became leader!
    For once, I agree with you.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130

    Year of the Three Emperors.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Jonathan said:

    Tories don’t be disheartened. Truss could surprise. One of her strengths is that she appears to have a genuine sense of what she stands for and might offer a coherent programme, which will help ride the economic storm.

    No, she'll be an absolutely disaster... Con will be agitating to get rid of her almost immediately.

    George Canning might just be about the get a reprieve from his place in Prime Ministerial infamy lol!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Wennington looks like it has been shelled.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Andy_JS said:

    Lol when 61% of voters say Truss would be a bad PM

    Labour supporters can be happy today.
    If there was an election within the next few months I would take Truss in a shot but we are only half way through this Parliament. Two and a half years of her?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    MrEd said:

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Nobody ever said that though. Other than @kinabalu kept saying it sarcastically.

    Liz Truss is the best person for PM though. 👍 But I'd rather get my £5000, so Rishi v Truss is a win/win.
    You must have bet big.

    I'm only in the £400-600 space. A tenth of yours!
    I think BR bet when Rishi was 250/1
    I'm all green, with ≈£100 win for Truss or Rishi and ≈ £300 for Mordaunt.

    Quite pleased how this has panned out.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    The Penny has dropped with the punters.
  • MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer vs Truss will be an exciting election campaign.

    The dull against the poor.

    Dull wins
    Genuinely Starmer couldn't dream for a better outcome. This is the ideal scenario I mentioned when he became leader!
    For once, I agree with you.
    Hey, MrEd! How are you Sir?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022

    Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD when the party is led by a (former) Lib Dem and republican.

    I disagree with your post. Winston Churchill was in the liberals as an adult, not as a young immature person - you questioning his Conservative Icon status?

    As Truss should have replied to Sunak’s silly jibe, it’s not how long the long and winding road, it’s where it ends up - and liz journey took her to sitting opposite Sunak in cabinet opposing Rishis tax hikes! the highest tax take since early fifties from Rishi sunak.

    The fact she was Lib Dem in political youth actually means zilch. The fact she is a hopeless politician in her prime is the honest and fair attack line.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Never underestimate the power of the Daily Mail.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130

    Just expel another one of Sunak's MPs and then do the vote again, I guess would be Johnson's solution.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    DavidL said:

    Not so sure that the bet @TSE was touting a couple of threads ago about a Tory polling lead in September is looking so good now.

    And Rishi will presumably be the next to follow the Osborne walk of shame out of the Commons after his "what do you regret most: voting to remain or being a Liberal Democrat" dig. There was real contempt in that and it is going to be mutual.

    Rishi isn’t the Chancellor any more!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130

    Put all three to the members. Simples.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Utterly delighted, either get £5k or the best person becomes PM.

    Win/win. Very happy. 😁

    Liz Truss? The best person? FFS. She will ensure a Labour victory at the next GE. She is Boris Johnson in a skirt: she will say anything to anyone to advance her career. It will unravel in weeks.
    Liz Truss the best person for PM is the biggest load of shite posted on PB since people were saying that Boris Johnson was pure muscle.


    Is that where his "guaranteed to give you bigger boobs" meme came from ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited July 2022
    Picking up from old thread
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    If this was an interview for a middle management post, rather than leader of a major country, they would definitely be on the "previous candidates need not apply" readvertisement stage,

    These guys just need an answer if some kind to rwo questions: "what are you going to do about people fuel bills?" and "how will you fix the NHS?". Even just showing some interest in the problems would help.

    Problem is - there isn't much you can do about fuel bills

    And the fix for the NHS is a 10 year project - firstly because anything to do with training will take 7 years to expand universities (2 years) and then 5 years before the first arrivals get their first degree and start working.
    Disagree. The correct answer for Fuel Bills is that you protect the vulnerable, try to mitigate some of the effects for everyone else, while acknowledging it will be a difficult time for most. For hospitals, yes, the main problem is a long term one of training, recruitment and retention of staff. So you focus on that, now. There are probably some things you can do in the short term, like fund a pay rise.

    So this means spending a chunk more money following on from the Covid splurge. If this is a priority you will find that money. Thing is, none of the PM candidates is interested in problems of real people. They don't want to talk about them, so they don't have to deal with them,
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993

    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130

    Just expel another one of Sunak's MPs and then do the vote again, I guess would be Johnson's solution.
    One ballot was spoiled according to Graham Brady. Boris?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Not so sure that the bet @TSE was touting a couple of threads ago about a Tory polling lead in September is looking so good now.

    And Rishi will presumably be the next to follow the Osborne walk of shame out of the Commons after his "what do you regret most: voting to remain or being a Liberal Democrat" dig. There was real contempt in that and it is going to be mutual.

    Rishi isn’t the Chancellor any more!
    I know. But if this goes the way you would predict at the moment he won't be in the next cabinet either.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    DavidL said:

    Not so sure that the bet @TSE was touting a couple of threads ago about a Tory polling lead in September is looking so good now.

    And Rishi will presumably be the next to follow the Osborne walk of shame out of the Commons after his "what do you regret most: voting to remain or being a Liberal Democrat" dig. There was real contempt in that and it is going to be mutual.

    I think Rishi is very much - become PM or retire at the next election...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    I don’t want to worry you, but it is theoretically possible for tomorrow’s supposedly final heat of the Tory leadership contest to be a dead heat. Since with Ellwood expelled, there are 357 voters and Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss could each get 119. Goodness knows what happens then
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1549399308688048130

    Endless ballots every 3 hours.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 2022
    Barnesian said:

    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.

    That’s awfully close, isn’t it!

    IMHO, Sunak gets a few more, and Mourdaunt a few less, of the Badenoch votes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    MISTY said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unfortunate for Kemi, but a great campaign, one hell of a marker for the next contest, and a very good shout for a Great Office in the new administration.

    In Truss we trust.

    Gove will now be negotiating and playing Sunak and Truss off against each other.

    Boy, he must be having the time of his life.
    Are you suggesting he is Kemi's.....er.......client acquirer?
    Kemi to Home, Gove to CoE?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Not so sure that the bet @TSE was touting a couple of threads ago about a Tory polling lead in September is looking so good now.

    And Rishi will presumably be the next to follow the Osborne walk of shame out of the Commons after his "what do you regret most: voting to remain or being a Liberal Democrat" dig. There was real contempt in that and it is going to be mutual.

    I think Rishi is very much - become PM or retire at the next election...

    If I can't be PM I'm not playing this game...?

    FFS
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    If PM Truss does go through with her desire to establish a republic, she might try to install President Bozo.

    Quick - Vote Rishi!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    If possibility of tied votes obviously they simply need to use AV ;-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Andy_JS said:

    Major incident in London declared by Mayor Khan in response to a number of fires. Wants to ban disposable barbecues.

    The number of idiots who put them in insane places. That, combined with the fashion for decking in small gardens - popular for rental properties.....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    kle4 said:

    Still time for twists and turns, but I think Liz has Rishi's number

    His best attempt in the debates was a lame 'hur, you used to be a LD'. If that's the best he can do she will wipe the floor with him and make her own ineptitude a sign of being 'real'.

    I don't think that's the best he can do. That was meant as a light question; he didn't want lots of blue-on-blue fighting.

    The question is what does Sunak or the stop-Truss contingent have still to use? And when do they use it?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Barnesian said:

    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.

    I'm on at 100/1. Bet placed Dec 2020. £55.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Why can't I flag a moderator's post..
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Andy_JS said:

    I wonder if Kemi would have gone through if you'd excluded Tory MPs who've been there for more than 15 years. The answer is probably yes IMO.

    By excluding the (generally speaking and of course it’s all relative) saner ones? Yeah, probably.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    FWIW, I think escalated war with Russia via some accident or other is far more likely with a 'gung ho' Truss is charge.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited July 2022
    I think Sunak's lead is bigger than it looks. I think he has lent votes to Truss to ensure the elimination of wild card Badenoch and a run-off against one of the 2 candidates he's most comfortable opposing in the Final. So, next vote, he'll pull away and Truss will not gain as many net votes as people are assuming. She - Truss - is a standout lay IMO if she's gone odds on.
  • THAT. IS. A. DISGRACE.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....

    Are you kidding? They voted in Iain Duncan Smith.
    As LOTO.

    For a bit.
    I have a sinking feeling that the worst of all the last five candidates could prevail - and that is Truss. She doesn't have a single positive attribute. Dull, tongue-tied, humourless, and representing continuity rather than change. I remember how it was when IDS beat Portillo and Clarke. This is feeling ominously similar.
    We feel your pain.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Barnesian said:

    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.

    People were saying earlier that a tie for last place means a re-run ballot, and if there's still a tie for last both are excluded... is that how they skip the members' phase?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Why can't I flag a moderator's post..
    Instead of flagging Robert's posts, just post this.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    glw said:

    Jesus Christ!

    Not on the ballot.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,146
    edited July 2022

    FWIW, I think escalated war with Russia via some accident or other is far more likely with a 'gung ho' Truss is charge.

    Although Lavrov just thinks she's a clown.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Relax you drama queens. The members won’t elect Truss over Rishi.

    Can’t you see the members polling stinks, it flips about more dramatically in space of a week than yougov polling.

    Zero chance of Truss becoming leader. The Badenoch vote can’t stand Truss which is why they aren’t voting for the embaressing Thatcher tribute act already.

    Yes, I suspect Team Sunak will think they can overhaul a 19-point deficit over the summer. The one strategic problem is that it coincides exactly with the school holidays, so minimal attention paid to politics by the public or indeed the Tory membership.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    kinabalu said:

    I think Sunak's lead is bigger than it looks. I think he has lent votes to Truss to ensure the elimination of wild card Badenoch and a run-off against one of the 2 candidates he's most comfortable opposing in the Final. So, next vote, he'll pull away and Truss will not gain as many net votes as people are assuming. She - Truss - is a standout lay IMO if she's gone odds on.

    Will he lend votes to Mordaunt in the next round, or is it too risky.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    Deary me the Tories aren't going to be stupid enough to vote in the B&M Thatcher surely....

    Are you kidding? They voted in Iain Duncan Smith.
    As LOTO.

    For a bit.
    Yeah but their first choice for the first mayor of London election was....

    Jeffrey Archer.

    So to quote Dad´s Army: "We´re all doooomed".

    For a brief period.... and then the Conservative Party should be put out of our misery forever.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    How much damage can Truss do in two years?

    Eeee.

    I’m actually a little scared of a Truss premiership.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Why can't I flag a moderator's post..
    Instead of flagging Robert's posts, just post this.


    While you can get away with that - I suspect the rest of us would see a multi-week ban..
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    FWIW, I think escalated war with Russia via some accident or other is far more likely with a 'gung ho' Truss is charge.

    All that investment in Coulport and Faslane. Only reasonable that Liz wants to use it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    edited July 2022
    Sunak more or less stood still and so did Kemi. Mordaunt gained a few not many. So where did TT’s vote go?

    Not Truss obvs. One assumes his vote largely went to Kemi, Kemi’s went to Truss in equal measure, the uniting of the ERG.

    Which means Kemi’s vote would not be as rich a hunting ground for Truss as one might assume.

    The same scenario could be true but with TT’s vote to Sunak and a chunk of Sunak’s to Kemi. Less likely but similar outcome.

    I can see there being one vote in this at the end 😐
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For someone who backed Truss @14 at one point I am doing abysmally at this betting malarky.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Driver said:

    Barnesian said:

    My latest best guess


    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill.
    I hope she gets it. £660 and a Labour government.

    People were saying earlier that a tie for last place means a re-run ballot, and if there's still a tie for last both are excluded... is that how they skip the members' phase?
    looking at that, Penny might be the value now....?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited July 2022
    Truss is Labour's dream, of course, but Sunak would lead a hopelessly divided party, which will work in Labour's favour too. However, bearing in mind the next election is probably two years away, Sunak will do much less damage in the meantime than Truss would, so the only patriotic vote from here is one for Sunak. I actually hope he does win. If it's Truss we're in worst PM in history territory again.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I agree that there is weirdness in this vote though.

    Kemi’s ending tally is likely more “left” than “right” at this stage, and I don’t think Liz gets even half of it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022

    Thoughts and prayers for Dom who may have brought the wonky shopping trolley down only to have it replaced by the MP he thinks is most bonkers of all them.

    The adage be careful what you wish for (Removing Bozo) it may come true has never been so apt.

    Especially as Labour will be very much thinking of a new voting system when they win the next election.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324

    FWIW, I think escalated war with Russia via some accident or other is far more likely with a 'gung ho' Truss is charge.

    Although Lavrov just thinks she's a clown.
    For once some sense from Lavrov.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    Jesus Christ!

    Not on the ballot.
    He wouldn't have got enough nominations anyway.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Perhaps the final result will be what Rishi’s team want it to be, and I suspect he’d prefer Mordaunt.

    But this result has surprised and shaken me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Correction, backed her @17
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    Jesus Christ!

    Not on the ballot.
    Too woke for the Tories.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
    The tail end of the wartime generation, though it continued for a bit in Thatcher's cabinet.
    Roy Jenkins was at Bletchley Park; Healey in the army; Benn was a bomber pilot; Callaghan a matelot; not sure about the other two. I suppose Major Heath would have been LotO still.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.
  • The Tory Party has become the 2019 Labour Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,926
    edited July 2022

    If PM Truss does go through with her desire to establish a republic, she might try to install President Bozo.

    Quick - Vote Rishi!

    Truss has at least abandoned her support for a republic, telling the Express she now understands why our constitutional monarchy is so important to our democracy

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1534760/Liz-Truss-BBC-Republican-Monarchy-Queen-Nick-Robinson-VN

    Much like Truss has abandoned her support for nuclear disarmament, abandoned her support for Remain for the hardest of Brexits, abandoned her support for the LDs to become an economic Thatcherite and indeed abandoned her old school to make a political point

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/18/liz-truss-roundhay-school-foreign-secretary-education
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Go on, I will give you your due...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited July 2022

    How much damage can Truss do in two years?

    Eeee.

    I’m actually a little scared of a Truss premiership.

    She won't be able to get the right wing fantasy stuff done because of the state of the parliamentary conservative party. There will be lots of rebellions when anything controversial comes up.

    ... the last rift was on Brexit, the new rift will be on cultural issues. Not so easy to fix.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    moonshine said:

    Sunak more or less stood still and so did Kemi. Mordaunt gained a few not many. So where did TR’s vote go?

    Not Truss obvs. One assumes his vote largely went to Kemi, Kemi’s went to Truss in equal measure, the uniting of the ERG.

    Which means Kemi’s vote would not be as rich a hunting ground for Truss as one might assume.

    The same scenario could be true but with TT’s vote to Sunak and a chunk of Sunak’s to Kemi. Less likely but similar outcome.

    I can see there being one vote in this at the end 😐

    I can believe that some of Tugendhat's vote was very pro-defence and anti-Putin, and that contingent might well go to Truss.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    How does Mordaunt get 40% of the Badenoch vote after her paltry take from Tom ?!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    rcs1000 said:

    Will everybody who dissed me yesterday, when I said that Badenoch would not overtake Truss, please acknowledge my genius?

    Oh, all right. Pah.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    That'd be greasing the pig with a whole road tanker of ecologically unsound palm oil.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Who's ready for Liz, then? Fuck's sake. 2005 is probably what we're looking at now rather than 1992 or 2010.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    kle4 said:

    Still time for twists and turns, but I think Liz has Rishi's number

    His best attempt in the debates was a lame 'hur, you used to be a LD'. If that's the best he can do she will wipe the floor with him and make her own ineptitude a sign of being 'real'.

    I don't think that's the best he can do. That was meant as a light question; he didn't want lots of blue-on-blue fighting.

    The question is what does Sunak or the stop-Truss contingent have still to use? And when do they use it?
    Agreed; said at the time Rishi soft-balled Truss at the end.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris Skidmore of Team Rishi accuses the Liz and Penny camps of possibly trading votes. Don't understand how that works.

    It's not completely impossible that some of the TT votes were tactically lent to Truss in order to guarantee Badenoch's removal - and will be removed from her in the next round.
    No collusion with Truss needed, but it would work.

    Seems a bit unlikely to me, but not impossible.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    ** EXCLUSIVE in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter **
    More than 1,800 Conservative party members have written to the Tory party chairman in less than 12 hours to demand that a vote on whether Boris Johnson should carry on as leader.

    The members - all of whom have to give their membership numbers when they sign up - are backing a petition organised by Tory donor Lord Cruddas and former Conservative MEP David Campbell-Bannerman @DCBMEP

    The signatories are invited to support the following statement: "I demand Boris Johnson is added to the ballot as an option for the members to vote upon in the forthcoming election."

    Lord Cruddas says under the party's constitution it can add Mr Johnson's name to the ballot.

    Lord Cruddas tells me: "The membership wants the option of voting for Boris on the final ballot.

    "We think it is only fair because Boris was the members choice back in 2019 and he has been constructively removed by the Parliamentary Party without referral to the membership.

    "By adding Boris to the final ballot to make it a three horse race means that the winner will have the backing of the membership.

    "There will be no ambiguity around the result and the final choice of leader will have integrity."


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549372957805481984

    Isn't that less than 1% of members?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831

    How much damage can Truss do in two years?

    Eeee.

    I’m actually a little scared of a Truss premiership.

    Boris without that fundamental and profound laziness which meant that at least not a lot actually happened. It is indeed worrying.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Pulpstar said:

    How does Mordaunt get 40% of the Badenoch vote after her paltry take from Tom ?!

    The great unknown is what games (if any) were played in this round to get Truss through and Badenoch out.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    MrEd said:

    Dear God.....

    If there is one saving grace with LT, is that she is almost certain to continue the support for Ukraine.

    I wouldn't have trusted RS to do that, despite his words.
    Certainly she will want to, but would that support survive a run on the pound and a sudden inability by HMG to borrow money?
  • SagandSagand Posts: 38
    moonshine said:

    Sunak more or less stood still and so did Kemi. Mordaunt gained a few not many. So where did TR’s vote go?

    Not Truss obvs. One assumes his vote largely went to Kemi, Kemi’s went to Truss in equal measure, the uniting of the ERG.

    Which means Kemi’s vote would not be as rich a hunting ground for Truss as one might assume.

    The same scenario could be true but with TT’s vote to Sunak and a chunk of Sunak’s to Kemi. Less likely but similar outcome.

    I can see there being one vote in this at the end 😐

    Or it mainly went to Sunak, who also lent out a chunk of his vote to Truss to guarantee Badenoch was eliminated (the candidate he was weakest against) now in the final round he can choose his opponent (so don't rule out a massive swing back toward Mordaunt).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
    The tail end of the wartime generation, though it continued for a bit in Thatcher's cabinet.
    Roy Jenkins was at Bletchley Park; Healey in the army; Benn was a bomber pilot; Callaghan a matelot; not sure about the other two. I suppose Major Heath would have been LotO still.
    1976 - Maggie was LOTO..
  • The fact there are proper traditional Tories terrified of a Truss premiership is very scary to me
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    Insanity. Schools are already struggling to recruit teachers. The Tories really hate state education don't they.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    And a 5% pay rise for the NHS but making the NHS pay for it. The government is using inflation to put a massive squeeze on public services, which won't end well.
  • dixiedean said:

    Away from the leadership.
    A 1.9% increase in per pupil funding.
    No wonder @ydoethur is getting out. He won't be alone.

    Insanity. Schools are already struggling to recruit teachers. The Tories really hate state education don't they.
    Why not just pay? Isn't everyone rich?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Andy_JS said:

    Major incident in London declared by Mayor Khan in response to a number of fires. Wants to ban disposable barbecues.

    The number of idiots who put them in insane places. That, combined with the fashion for decking in small gardens - popular for rental properties.....
    Out here they’ve started locking up people for cooking with barbecues on balconies of cladded apartment blocks - after half a dozen buildings went properly on fire!

    Never underestimate just how moronic the morons can be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    moonshine said:

    Sunak vs Truss is like Djokovic vs Krgios ag z Wimbledon or Spurs vs Chelsea in the FA Cup final. No interest whatsoever.

    Considerably worse than that, as none of them were particularly likely to be PM for a couple of years.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Looks like temperatures may have topped out now.
    Which means that we can add to this graphic that circulated recently:
    image

    With this:


    (I did have to extend the top of the graphic a little, I'm afraid. Good job we didn't hit 42 degrees, it would have looked ridiculous.
  • A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    Ah yes, very Theresa May vibes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,926

    TGOHF22 said:

    Rejoice!* The Trusster will become Prime Minister. And thus ends both the Union and the Conservative Party.

    *don't rejoice

    Biggest end of the union since the last Indy ref and Brexit I suspect.
    Sure! And I'm not seeking independence. But the government of the UK is a corrupt disfunctional shit show. And if the Tories elect an incompetent sneering harridan who continues to disregard Scottish democracy, it only increases the likelihood of a yes vote when it eventually gets put to us again.
    Provided the SC rules the UK government can refuse an indyref2 it ain't happening again anyway anytime soon
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402


    James Heale
    @JAHeale
    ·
    17m
    It’s ridiculous to compare this hot summer to 1976. Back then MPs had to choose between Crosland, Jenkins, Healey, Benn, Callaghan and Foot for PM.

    All men.
    The tail end of the wartime generation, though it continued for a bit in Thatcher's cabinet.
    Roy Jenkins was at Bletchley Park; Healey in the army; Benn was a bomber pilot; Callaghan a matelot; not sure about the other two. I suppose Major Heath would have been LotO still.
    Healey was a little more than in the army.
    He was beachmaster at Anzio.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    darkage said:

    How much damage can Truss do in two years?

    Eeee.

    I’m actually a little scared of a Truss premiership.

    She won't be able to get the right wing fantasy stuff done because of the state of the parliamentary conservative party. There will be lots of rebellions when anything controversial comes up.

    ... the last rift was on Brexit, the new rift will be on cultural issues. Not so easy to fix.
    Truth is as far as what a PM can do to a country policy wise a lot of Johnson's time wasn't horrendous because it was basically all covid after the Brexit oven deal. Plus Johnson is so crap at actually governing that little seems to have been achieved.

    He has massively damaged that actual office of PM and public life in general but I think actual policy stuff here.

    Truss could do far more damage in two years.

    Have we got the IMF on speed dial for example?
  • A very steely looking Liz in her banner photo shows how her prime ministerial image will evolve. I think people are writing off her chances against Starmer too soon.

    image

    Deliver, deliver, deliver.

    Special delivery. Guaranteed to deliver. Guaranteed Next Day Delivery.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    The Tories have already voted? That's earlier than the two previous rounds!
This discussion has been closed.