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Durham police say Starmer’s “No case to answer” over Beergate – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    Huey Long was mentioned earlier...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    I am conflicted here, which is why I stopped posting all morning to think about what I am saying.

    Last evening I sensed a pile on Penny for being a bit woke - it was alleged she launched an assault on It Ain’t Half Hot Mum in her “mein kampf” tome. But looking at your post as an example, what do you mean by woke? The danger here is a phrase meaning all things to all people, by that I mean when you think of the woke crimes in your head she may not have committed any of them. Do you see what I mean? Saying woke can be used to attack someone unfairly as it’s sooooo broad, they may not actually have done the thing you are thinking of. If you don’t like someone you put it around they are woke, and people go, really, I didn’t know that, I don’t like them either then. Which is so unfair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    You are mistaking me for someone who will defend Boris.

    I’m trying to point out that from the frame of reference of those red-wallers, it kind of makes sense. As @turbotubbs put it, “They all lie; but he’s our liar”.

    Which is what many of the MAGA lot think and say.

    What of it?
    Its what almost everyone thinks.

    Remember when David Cameron outright lied about how he'd stay and invoke Article 50 if we voted Leave and he immediately resigned instead? There were numerous defences here at the time of "well of course he lied, if he told the truth that would have been bad for the campaign".

    Not only were people prepared to defend lies, they were prepared to defend politicians lying deliberately in order to swing votes.
    Lying about facts and past actions is far worse than about future intentions
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    The Lebedev stuff may be bad enough to justify Boris’s immediate departure.

    It'd be nice to get the next PM market settled on Raab whilst having the Next Con markets still live but I have my doubts.

    What's Boris alleged to have done with the owner of the Standard and Independent this time round though ?

    Is George Osborne involved ? :D
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a lighter question for you all: What else should Sir Keir be eating and drinking in public to show his common touch? The beer seems right, but I am not sure what else. Fish and chips? A big Mac? Scotch eggs?

    Was the curry a good choice?

    (Back in the 1950's Nelson Rockefeller became known for eating ethnic foods. It didn't hurt him with the public though, as I recall, it did lead Bob Dylan to mock him.)

    Keir is a self-appointed member of the London liberal classes, and a great example of social mobility.

    He just needs to be “himself”. Voters know when politicians aren’t being genuine.

    Having said that, I’ve no idea what Keir’s interests are outside politics. Does he have any?
    He's an Arsenal fan like Jezza.
    Supporting Arsenal isn't an interest, it's a lifelong Larkinesque deprivation.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    You don't even understand what the term "Red Wall" means, do you?
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    You are mistaking me for someone who will defend Boris.

    I’m trying to point out that from the frame of reference of those red-wallers, it kind of makes sense. As @turbotubbs put it, “They all lie; but he’s our liar”.

    Which is what many of the MAGA lot think and say.

    What of it?
    Its what almost everyone thinks.

    Remember when David Cameron outright lied about how he'd stay and invoke Article 50 if we voted Leave and he immediately resigned instead? There were numerous defences here at the time of "well of course he lied, if he told the truth that would have been bad for the campaign".

    Not only were people prepared to defend lies, they were prepared to defend politicians lying deliberately in order to swing votes.
    Lying about facts and past actions is far worse than about future intentions
    Not really. A lie's a lie.

    Once you're prepared to justify lies, then that's that.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    No I won't have that. I'm wearing a vest too
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    You may be right that Mordaunt is too woke. I always find it tough to take an approach on Trans, because I am all for people being who they are, and I am happy for NHS support for that, but I also think that there is something fixed about gender too, and I certainly have concerns about shared spaces.

    I have been impressed with Tugendhat out of the blocks - I have to say that I am underwhelmed by Wallace, but I think Mordaunt or Tugendhat have the right military background to still appeal in the red wall
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    I am conflicted here, which is why I stopped posting all morning to think about what I am saying.

    Last evening I sensed a pile on Penny for being a bit woke - it was alleged she launched an assault on It Ain’t Half Hot Mum in her “mein kampf” tome. But looking at your post as an example, what do you mean by woke? The danger here is a phrase meaning all things to all people, by that I mean when you think of the woke crimes in your head she may not have committed any of them. Do you see what I mean? Saying woke can be used to attack someone unfairly as it’s sooooo broad, they may not actually have done the thing you are thinking of. If you don’t like someone you put it around they are woke, and people go, really, I didn’t know that, I don’t like them either then. Which is so unfair.
    In early nought’s when I was about six I remember watching it ain’t half hot mum and laughing and liking it as a warm, character driven sitcom. Now I am older I know it is better now the world has moved on from stereotypes etc, more than that appreciate it was hard work and bravery from people to have move things on to the better community we now share, like work places etc.

    I havn’t read Penny’s alleged assault on the sitcom but if she is saying just same as what I just said, she is not wrong at all is she? So does it belong in Room one Oh woke?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    So she is a competent defence expert on the verge of a World War but she must be discounted because she is open minded on the subject of cocks in frocks.
    On the defence aspect - it seems that the very concept of transgender causes Russian Ultranationalists to lose their minds.

    So a surely a unit of transgender soldiers would be an effective military asset? Nothing like making the enemies heads explode.....
    They'd have stylish battle dress.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    I watched the key Boris speech on this, and he understood the key issues very well, he literally repeated a lot of the academic analysis.

    The problem is that he is so incredibly lazy that he couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. He left it to Gove to fight it out with Sunak/Treasury (and other naysayers like Kwasi) and it essentially collapsed into a hanging-baskets fund.

    If you want to level up you essentially needs to dedicate something like 4% of GDP for a generation to address it; although it would be well worth it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    Boris was the architect of his own demise, MPs like Lee Anderson and Rowley know they won't find a better fit for their sets but still binned him off anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    EU: driving assistance systems are now mandatory for all vehicles (all based on deep learning).
    Also EU: All safety-critical AI systems must be explainable (deep learning must be banned).

    https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1545210275237953537?t=CbFujpJibwqoChHrYirLjg&s=19
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    KevinB said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Covid cases soar by another FIFTH in a week with 2.7MILLION Britons infected

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10994915/Covid-cases-soar-FIFTH-week-2-7MILLION-Britons-infected.html

    There's a lot of it about. If you are vulnerable now is a good time to be prudent. And I'd suggest taking care if friends/colleagues say they have tested and the heavy cold is not covid - seems to only show on lateral flow a few days after onset of symptoms.
    Two folk at my work are down with it for the second time in just a month. Both had cold-like symptoms and thought 'no - surely not again so soon' then tested positive a day or two later. One of them is proper knocked out for a second time too.

    Some of my optimism about all this is wearing a little thin.
    Yes the vaccine clearly isn't stopping transmission sadly
    I think for most people it’s effects have worn off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923
    edited July 2022
    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    Who the HELL are Baron and Chishti.
    They’re just made up, aren’t they?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    KevinB said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Covid cases soar by another FIFTH in a week with 2.7MILLION Britons infected

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10994915/Covid-cases-soar-FIFTH-week-2-7MILLION-Britons-infected.html

    There's a lot of it about. If you are vulnerable now is a good time to be prudent. And I'd suggest taking care if friends/colleagues say they have tested and the heavy cold is not covid - seems to only show on lateral flow a few days after onset of symptoms.
    Two folk at my work are down with it for the second time in just a month. Both had cold-like symptoms and thought 'no - surely not again so soon' then tested positive a day or two later. One of them is proper knocked out for a second time too.

    Some of my optimism about all this is wearing a little thin.
    Yes the vaccine clearly isn't stopping transmission sadly
    I think for most people it’s effects have worn off.
    No, they haven't.

    The issue is that the the vaccines were not stopping transmission before Omicron and are less effective at stopping transmission than Omicron.

    The reductions in harm caused by COVID, by the vaccines, are still huge.

    That being said, boosters are being considered for various groups - some vulnerable groups are getting them now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    Is Dee dah TSE also a toff? What a ghastly combination 🤭
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Starmer to exit 2022 now 12/1. Anyone know what it was this morning?

    Either a number of posters have made out like bandits laying this, or the spooky link between Starmer and hindsight remains strong
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    Applicant said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    You don't even understand what the term "Red Wall" means, do you?
    Red wall is the line of labour and former labour constituencies in the North that formed a red wall between the blue to the south and north Basically north west and Yorkshire extending down into midlands
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    HYUFD said:

    So Starmer survives to lead Labour at the next general election.

    However I find it somewhat odd that he and Rayner avoided a fine by police but both Johnson and Sunak were fined by police

    Wasn't Beergate just a 'look squirrel' exercise?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    KevinB said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Covid cases soar by another FIFTH in a week with 2.7MILLION Britons infected

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10994915/Covid-cases-soar-FIFTH-week-2-7MILLION-Britons-infected.html

    There's a lot of it about. If you are vulnerable now is a good time to be prudent. And I'd suggest taking care if friends/colleagues say they have tested and the heavy cold is not covid - seems to only show on lateral flow a few days after onset of symptoms.
    Two folk at my work are down with it for the second time in just a month. Both had cold-like symptoms and thought 'no - surely not again so soon' then tested positive a day or two later. One of them is proper knocked out for a second time too.

    Some of my optimism about all this is wearing a little thin.
    Yes the vaccine clearly isn't stopping transmission sadly
    It's infection & re-infection not showing signs of reducing transmission that concern me more. If people are going to be infected over and over and still be randomly knocked off their feet for a few days - that's .... not good.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    KevinB said:

    Applicant said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    You don't even understand what the term "Red Wall" means, do you?
    Red wall is the line of labour and former labour constituencies in the North that formed a red wall between the blue to the south and north Basically north west and Yorkshire extending down into midlands
    Nope. You've missed a critical part of the definition, and that omission explains your failure to understand the situation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    So she is a competent defence expert on the verge of a World War but she must be discounted because she is open minded on the subject of cocks in frocks.
    Since when does a small amount of reservations service make you a “defence expert”? I think it’s more likely to give you a very artificial and parochial view based on the small bits you saw.
    You said, "I think it’s more likely to give you a very artificial and parochial view based on the small bits you saw". Thank f*** she never became Secretary of State for Defence!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    F1: no pre-qualifying ramble on a weekend with a stupid format.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    So Starmer survives to lead Labour at the next general election.

    However I find it somewhat odd that he and Rayner avoided a fine by police but both Johnson and Sunak were fined by police

    Isn't the Met Police under investigation for being completely incompetent.

    Something you can't say of the Durham Police...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Tres said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?
    Nick Timothy said Wait! This is the most serious revelation yet.

    Is Boris Ukraine love remorse for past sins?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

    You’re just like Samatha Cameron then, you grew up on an estate in Sheffield.

    Eid Mubarak!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    Pulpstar said:

    Irrelevant but if I were Sunak I would be spitting tacks. He turns up for a work meeting and ends up with a FPN. Starmer at a work event no FPN (correctly).

    Far more events at No 10 seemingly should have been fined.

    The whole thing stinks, but its time to forget it.

    i. He accepted the fine.
    ii. Didn't lie about it in parliament
    iii. It was clearly Boris' fault inviting to the meeting.
    iv. The fine was a bit harsh.
    v. I doubt most of the public even know he got a fine (All the focus on Boris)

    Many things might kill his leadership chances (Non Dom, immense wealth, tax raises whilst chancellor) but this isn't one of them.
    Wasn't really talking about the leadership - I think the other things you've listed are far more detrimental. Its more the fairness of it. A bit like my speeding ticket at 27 mph in a 20 zone (which is only 200 yards long) while on the motorways right now thousands are driving over 80 mph.
    A 200 yard 20 zone is presumably a school or similar?

    What's more deadly, speeding in a residential or school area where young children might step onto the road, or doing 80 on the motorway?
    I do 80-85mph on the motorway regularly, when it's safe to do so.

    So do most people.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    The Tories now know who they are facing at next GE. Might influence who wins the leadership election?

    Yes.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    You need those oiks for a majority because a lot of those Home County seats are swinging towards the Lib Dems.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    Chishti, good grief. The Labour candidate for Horsham.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    What's quite interesting about much of that list, is that quite a lot of it is achievable.

    Fun fact - the latest trend in IT jobs is not having code tests or x rounds of interviews. If you have a few years working for X, company Y hires you after a single interview. If you can't do the job, they bin you in the probationary period.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Don't think they hate foreigners but many of these people don't have the financial resources to escape diversity unlike many of the woke middle class who bleat about how they love it but live well away from it
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Tres said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?
    Pere not fils
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?

    Tres said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?
    Nick Timothy said Wait! This is the most serious revelation yet.

    Is Boris Ukraine love remorse for past sins?
    I knew Lebedev was writing puff pieces for Johnson in the Evening Standard for years when he was London mayor. I can't remember who nominated him for his peerage though. Was it Cameron, May or Johnson?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    It does if it comes to me for a vote
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    So Starmer survives to lead Labour at the next general election.

    However I find it somewhat odd that he and Rayner avoided a fine by police but both Johnson and Sunak were fined by police

    Wasn't Beergate just a 'look squirrel' exercise?
    I suspect it has been seen by some as "a no smoke, no fire" affair. Indeed some on here are already saying he only got off because he called the police's bluff over his resignation.

    I believe the result was correct legally speaking, although from my own point of view an FPN would have given us a more dynamic leader, and this week's denial of entering a type of single market arrangement is folly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So the Tories have gotten rid of BJ, and Labour are keeping SKS?

    Does that mean the odds of Con Overall Majority should be shortening?

    Johnson hasn't gone yet. I'm backing Cummings' analysis. Johnson is convinced something turns up which allows him to continue as PM.
    Neither London Bridge nor WWIII allow him to continue. WWIII probably means Wallace pulls out the race (If he even enters) to focus on defense, and London Bridge might delay his depature by a few days but I'm struggling to see what might 'turn up' to allow Boris to continue.
    A Russian nuclear drop on London might do it
    Only if he is at Chequers.
    I'm pretty sure Chequers is a high priority target
    For party planners
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    Treason now a core Tory and Christian value is it?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    HYUFD said:

    So Starmer survives to lead Labour at the next general election.

    However I find it somewhat odd that he and Rayner avoided a fine by police but both Johnson and Sunak were fined by police

    Wasn't Beergate just a 'look squirrel' exercise?
    I suspect it has been seen by some as "a no smoke, no fire" affair. Indeed some on here are already saying he only got off because he called the police's bluff over his resignation.

    I believe the result was correct legally speaking, although from my own point of view an FPN would have given us a more dynamic leader, and this week's denial of entering a type of single market arrangement is folly.
    “ I believe the result was correct legally speaking “

    I’m sorry I got this wrong then as I had you down as you knew it was certain to happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    You need those oiks for a majority because a lot of those Home County seats are swinging towards the Lib Dems.
    Well don't blame me, I backed Boris until he resigned.

    However the Tory Party will get a bit posher again whether Wallace, Sunak, Hunt or Tugendhat or even Truss is leader.

    It really needed Boris to appeal to the Leave voting working class former Labour voting oiks
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    I watched the key Boris speech on this, and he understood the key issues very well, he literally repeated a lot of the academic analysis.

    The problem is that he is so incredibly lazy that he couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. He left it to Gove to fight it out with Sunak/Treasury (and other naysayers like Kwasi) and it essentially collapsed into a hanging-baskets fund.

    If you want to level up you essentially needs to dedicate something like 4% of GDP for a generation to address it; although it would be well worth it.
    He found a new tranche of voters. It didn't fail because he was too lazy (although he is), but because it was fundamentally at odds with the ideology of the majority of the Conservative Party, who have kittens at anything even scented with re-distribution.
    They won't get that tranche back anytime soon.
    They'll get most of those on this site back.
    The question is which group is bigger?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    Treason now a core Tory and Christian value is it?
    He has probably been hacked and will need another software update...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    Treason now a core Tory and Christian value is it?
    'Twas ever thus.... ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    I am conflicted here, which is why I stopped posting all morning to think about what I am saying.

    Last evening I sensed a pile on Penny for being a bit woke - it was alleged she launched an assault on It Ain’t Half Hot Mum in her “mein kampf” tome. But looking at your post as an example, what do you mean by woke? The danger here is a phrase meaning all things to all people, by that I mean when you think of the woke crimes in your head she may not have committed any of them. Do you see what I mean? Saying woke can be used to attack someone unfairly as it’s sooooo broad, they may not actually have done the thing you are thinking of. If you don’t like someone you put it around they are woke, and people go, really, I didn’t know that, I don’t like them either then. Which is so unfair.
    Oh God, how many times do we have to go through this?

    Woke means you have an identity politics based view of the world where everyone occupies a place in an intersectional hierarchy accordingly, and you're dogmatic about it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    Who the HELL are Baron and Chishti.
    They’re just made up, aren’t they?
    An import/export company specialising in finest Persian carpets?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    Can we dispute these Boris done okay facts?

    delivering Brexit from total grid lock, politics, government, country was paralysed by Brexit grid lock before he was PM.
    delivering First country out a Global Pandemic. Despite everything, at least they got the vaccine programme right.
    ensuring UK is leading supporter of Ukraine in a major European Land War. Other countries just didn’t get how vital resisting Putin’s colonialism is to keep all Europe safe from it in future.
    and now sorting out world cost of living crisis impacting here in the UK with economic reset and giving people back their own money to be able to help themselves and their families? Or would be if not removed by his parliamentary party.

    And can we dispute that when it worked, he did actually have charm and appeal on voters, so was an electoral asset? Say in contrast with May who couldn’t convince voters to follow her, Boris picked up votes from across the voting spectrum and outside it for being Boris, this charismatic politician with unique and persuasive “can do” persona in order to sell the great change for better once we have Brexited and change for the better once levelling up completed.

    I am convinced Boris is a hard act to follow as firstly I doubt any successor can match those vote winning qualities Boris had.
    The US got vaccines in arms quicker than the UK, and was (in the vast majority of States) fully open by the middle of 2021. The UK did better than our Continental neighbours with vaccines, but not as much better with reopening as we could have been.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Tres said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?

    Tres said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    R4 WATO digging up Lebedev now.

    Boris scandals get worse. Lebedev will be huge.
    So where are we up to with Lebedev reports. An undocumented meeting or something? How does it move the story on?
    Was it before or after he got his peerage?
    Nick Timothy said Wait! This is the most serious revelation yet.

    Is Boris Ukraine love remorse for past sins?
    I knew Lebedev was writing puff pieces for Johnson in the Evening Standard for years when he was London mayor. I can't remember who nominated him for his peerage though. Was it Cameron, May or Johnson?
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/07/boris-johnson-denies-overruling-spies-concerns-over-evgeny-lebedev-peerage
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    KevinB said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Don't think they hate foreigners but many of these people don't have the financial resources to escape diversity unlike many of the woke middle class who bleat about how they love it but live well away from it
    I also don’t think they hate foreigners, at least not chiefly. Rather, they resent them for bringing un-asked for cultural change and (to their minds) over-burdening public services.

    I think their chief hate is for the unaccountable elite in London who have taken away the life they think they knew.

    You are wrong about the wokest middle class, though. They tend to live in areas of high multi-cultural diversity and actually can’t fathom why others would not want to do so.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Covid cases soar by another FIFTH in a week with 2.7MILLION Britons infected

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10994915/Covid-cases-soar-FIFTH-week-2-7MILLION-Britons-infected.html

    There's a lot of it about. If you are vulnerable now is a good time to be prudent. And I'd suggest taking care if friends/colleagues say they have tested and the heavy cold is not covid - seems to only show on lateral flow a few days after onset of symptoms.
    I may be clutching at straws, but looking at the accompanying data (including the age breakdowns) and at the hospitalisation figures, I think there's a decent chance that we're close to the worst of it in England and possibly already past the worst in Scotland.

    The rate of growth in incidence looks to be slowing, and the oldest group looks to have been starting to level off in England as of the end of June (having never got too close to the younger groups). Probably due to the spring booster campaign (I wish it had been rolled out down to age 50+. It would have made a significant difference).

    Hospitalisations in Scotland look to have already peaked, and the incidence slowdown was happening earlier as well. Might be just a blip, but if not, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out in the next release that the peak of prevalence in Scotland has already occurred. And the peak in England may just be about now.

    Motivated reasoning, of course (I want it to be true), but it looks genuinely plausible to me. Hoping it's the case.

    (And could we please get HEPA and far-UV filtration rolled out this summer?)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    Here's a lighter question for you all: What else should Sir Keir be eating and drinking in public to show his common touch? The beer seems right, but I am not sure what else. Fish and chips? A big Mac? Scotch eggs?

    Was the curry a good choice?

    (Back in the 1950's Nelson Rockefeller became known for eating ethnic foods. It didn't hurt him with the public though, as I recall, it did lead Bob Dylan to mock him.)

    Keir is a self-appointed member of the London liberal classes, and a great example of social mobility.

    He just needs to be “himself”. Voters know when politicians aren’t being genuine.

    Having said that, I’ve no idea what Keir’s interests are outside politics. Does he have any?
    Editing socialist magazines I think

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

    You are a privately educated, Cambridge educated toff who lives in Sheffield Hallam, basically a Home counties Remain seat up north
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited July 2022
    I love this country.

    I’m the grandson of humble immigrants to this country and within two generations we’re toffs.

    So much for elitism in this country.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    I watched the key Boris speech on this, and he understood the key issues very well, he literally repeated a lot of the academic analysis.

    The problem is that he is so incredibly lazy that he couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. He left it to Gove to fight it out with Sunak/Treasury (and other naysayers like Kwasi) and it essentially collapsed into a hanging-baskets fund.

    If you want to level up you essentially needs to dedicate something like 4% of GDP for a generation to address it; although it would be well worth it.
    He found a new tranche of voters. It didn't fail because he was too lazy (although he is), but because it was fundamentally at odds with the ideology of the majority of the Conservative Party, who have kittens at anything even scented with re-distribution.
    They won't get that tranche back anytime soon.
    They'll get most of those on this site back.
    The question is which group is bigger?
    That doesn't automatically follow.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    It does if it comes to me for a vote
    Indeed. It would never do to elect someone with a conscience!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    So the Tories are already doing the wokey cokey.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing seats.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    Treason now a core Tory and Christian value is it?
    Tories to become the party of the home counties again
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    KevinB said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Don't think they hate foreigners but many of these people don't have the financial resources to escape diversity unlike many of the woke middle class who bleat about how they love it but live well away from it
    They like the few foreigners they know personally, the taxi drivers, the Polish bloke who moved in a few doors down ten years ago, the Asian bloke who delivers their curries.

    They don't like the big nasty blob of faceless foreigners that have supposedly come here, taken their jobs, clogged up their NHS, opened mosques everywhere. Those kind of foreigners they don't like at all.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    KevinB said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Don't think they hate foreigners but many of these people don't have the financial resources to escape diversity unlike many of the woke middle class who bleat about how they love it but live well away from it
    I also don’t think they hate foreigners, at least not chiefly. Rather, they resent them for bringing un-asked for cultural change and (to their minds) over-burdening public services.

    I think their chief hate is for the unaccountable elite in London who have taken away the life they think they knew.

    You are wrong about the wokest middle class, though. They tend to live in areas of high multi-cultural diversity and actually can’t fathom why others would not want to do so.
    Yeah if I have escaped diversity then how come I am the only white person in my house?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    The Tories now know who they are facing at next GE. Might influence who wins the leadership election?

    I think that is a really good point and we don't get to see the 4d chess of concurrent leadership contests.

    The Tories could go for

    - Their third female leader (when Labour have not had one)
    - The first Asian heritage prime minister of UK
    - They can choose someone who specifically lines up well against Starmer- not just in the useless x versus y polling questions, but in personality
    - They could even choose someone who might be better at negotiating with Europe (Tugendhat is married to a French judge whose father was a diplomat) or who might be marginally better received in Scotland or NI.

    Not sure they could tick all the boxes but a shortlist which gave them options would help. Personally I see those less tied to Boris as perhaps being advantaged. Mordaunt, Tugendhat, Javid, maybe Wallace.

    I think that MPs and members have been seen to support the best option for the next election before and with boundary changes and a different tone from government - being business friendly for instance - the new leader could get back to hung parliament levels fairly quickly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    I mean out of that lot only Javid, Mourdant, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Hunt, Patel and Zahawi are actually players. The rest are just wasting everyone's time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

    You are a privately educated, Cambridge educated toff who lives in Sheffield Hallam, basically a Home counties Remain seat up north
    Home Counties? Geography isn't a specialist subject then.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    Jonathan said:

    So the Tories are already doing the wokey cokey.

    They aren't racist but they are obsessed with genitalia.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

    You are a privately educated, Cambridge educated toff who lives in Sheffield Hallam, basically a Home counties Remain seat up north
    I have always said that Yorkshire isn't really the North.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Funny how until yesterday the TV media couldn't find anyone who supported Boris Johnson. Now most of the people they're interviewing are fans of the PM.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Andy_JS said:

    Penny Mourdant is a lot more Woke than I'd previously realised. Whether than has a serious impact on her leadership chances remains to be seen.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-mordaunt-is-wrong-to-repeat-the-trans-allies-mantra

    I am conflicted here, which is why I stopped posting all morning to think about what I am saying.

    Last evening I sensed a pile on Penny for being a bit woke - it was alleged she launched an assault on It Ain’t Half Hot Mum in her “mein kampf” tome. But looking at your post as an example, what do you mean by woke? The danger here is a phrase meaning all things to all people, by that I mean when you think of the woke crimes in your head she may not have committed any of them. Do you see what I mean? Saying woke can be used to attack someone unfairly as it’s sooooo broad, they may not actually have done the thing you are thinking of. If you don’t like someone you put it around they are woke, and people go, really, I didn’t know that, I don’t like them either then. Which is so unfair.
    Oh God, how many times do we have to go through this?

    Woke means you have an identity politics based view of the world where everyone occupies a place in an intersectional hierarchy accordingly, and you're dogmatic about it.
    What if I take a Nadine Dorries line on trans athletes competing, but a Mourdant line on It Ain’t Half Hot Mum - do I have to wear the woke ribbon on my arm and everyone think I disagree with Nadine Dorries on trans competitors is the point I’m making.

    I’m not God by the way, just a very naughty girl.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    I wonder if Starmer thinks just repeatedly asking for a General election, or stating that it's needed, is any much different from the SNP just repeatedly asking for an independence referendum, or stating that it's needed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    KevinB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    If any of us or any of them had lied so continually and behaved so badly, where would it have got us?

    The attachment is heavily emotional and powerful. Sadly I don't think the tories have realised what they have done. No-one else has his appeal in the red wall
    The Tories may have got rid of Boris and hence also lost the support of the oiks in the redwall swing states.

    Never fear though, the next leader may win back Toffs like TSE and Nigel Foremain and pile up majorities in the Home counties again!
    I’m not a toff nor do I live in the Home Counties.

    You are a privately educated, Cambridge educated toff who lives in Sheffield Hallam, basically a Home counties Remain seat up north
    Nah.

    Someone confused him with Georgia.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 45% (+2)
    CON: 31% (-4)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    via @Survation, 06 Jul
    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/06/britainpredicts/
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    KevinB said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Covid cases soar by another FIFTH in a week with 2.7MILLION Britons infected

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10994915/Covid-cases-soar-FIFTH-week-2-7MILLION-Britons-infected.html

    There's a lot of it about. If you are vulnerable now is a good time to be prudent. And I'd suggest taking care if friends/colleagues say they have tested and the heavy cold is not covid - seems to only show on lateral flow a few days after onset of symptoms.
    Two folk at my work are down with it for the second time in just a month. Both had cold-like symptoms and thought 'no - surely not again so soon' then tested positive a day or two later. One of them is proper knocked out for a second time too.

    Some of my optimism about all this is wearing a little thin.
    Yes the vaccine clearly isn't stopping transmission sadly
    I think for most people it’s effects have worn off.
    No, they haven't.

    The issue is that the the vaccines were not stopping transmission before Omicron and are less effective at stopping transmission than Omicron.

    The reductions in harm caused by COVID, by the vaccines, are still huge.

    That being said, boosters are being considered for various groups - some vulnerable groups are getting them now.
    We possibly overplay the "doesn't stop transmission" aspect - possibly due to binary thinking.

    Given that Omicron has an R0 somewhere over 15, if there was no reduction [NB - "reduction" is not "total prevention"] due to immunity, the prevalence line (and hospitalisations line, given the existence of incidental admissions) would be near-vertical.

    Instead, the effective transmission is an Rt of about 1.4, meaning a hell of a lot of what would have been infections (and onwards transmission) are effectively "bouncing off" of people.

    But, as said - even a big reduction isn't total prevention, so doesn't actuall stop transmission. It just slows it. A lot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny how until yesterday the TV media couldn't find anyone who supported Boris Johnson. Now most of the people they're interviewing are fans of the PM.

    Vox pops are absolute nonsense.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    KevinB said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And

    dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Don't think they hate foreigners but many of these people don't have the financial resources to escape diversity unlike many of the woke middle class who bleat about how they love it but live well away from it
    The diversity on Pontefract high street, I'd vouch is not massive (I've done the 3pm weekday shop run plenty of times in various down at heel northern towns, some diverse, some not, and neighbouring Normanton amongst them. And Featherstone once!!). And worked summers in factories juxtaposed with posh uni.

    The old Common People thing northern monkey invokes here is absolutely still true and real - very many people with everyday wherewithal but a narrow horizon of what they feel is relevant to them. The flip side, ignoramuses best avoided, as per Misshapes is also present. Like humanity anywhere, really, merely adapted to one particular circumstance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Why is it a bad thing to want to go back to a time when you could ring up the doctors, talk to a real person and get an appointment the same morning?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    I watched the key Boris speech on this, and he understood the key issues very well, he literally repeated a lot of the academic analysis.

    The problem is that he is so incredibly lazy that he couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. He left it to Gove to fight it out with Sunak/Treasury (and other naysayers like Kwasi) and it essentially collapsed into a hanging-baskets fund.

    If you want to level up you essentially needs to dedicate something like 4% of GDP for a generation to address it; although it would be well worth it.
    He found a new tranche of voters. It didn't fail because he was too lazy (although he is), but because it was fundamentally at odds with the ideology of the majority of the Conservative Party, who have kittens at anything even scented with re-distribution.
    They won't get that tranche back anytime soon.
    They'll get most of those on this site back.
    The question is which group is bigger?
    I don’t think so.

    Boris actually had immense power because of his electoral appeal. He managed to turn the Tories into the “fuck business” party with the full support of supposed life-long conservatives.

    He also had the loyalty within the party of the redwall MPs.

    From a policy and operational perspective, his biggest mistake was probably not making Gove Chancellor and ceding effective control of domestic policy to him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 45% (+2)
    CON: 31% (-4)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    via @Survation, 06 Jul
    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/06/britainpredicts/

    This warms my heart.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639

    Pulpstar said:

    Irrelevant but if I were Sunak I would be spitting tacks. He turns up for a work meeting and ends up with a FPN. Starmer at a work event no FPN (correctly).

    Far more events at No 10 seemingly should have been fined.

    The whole thing stinks, but its time to forget it.

    i. He accepted the fine.
    ii. Didn't lie about it in parliament
    iii. It was clearly Boris' fault inviting to the meeting.
    iv. The fine was a bit harsh.
    v. I doubt most of the public even know he got a fine (All the focus on Boris)

    Many things might kill his leadership chances (Non Dom, immense wealth, tax raises whilst chancellor) but this isn't one of them.
    Wasn't really talking about the leadership - I think the other things you've listed are far more detrimental. Its more the fairness of it. A bit like my speeding ticket at 27 mph in a 20 zone (which is only 200 yards long) while on the motorways right now thousands are driving over 80 mph.
    A 200 yard 20 zone is presumably a school or similar?

    What's more deadly, speeding in a residential or school area where young children might step onto the road, or doing 80 on the motorway?
    I do 80-85mph on the motorway regularly, when it's safe to do so.

    So do most people.
    You wanna watch your mpg drop precipitously as you get north of 65. You'll soon be crawling along at 60, tucked in behind a lorry for the slipstreaming!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lebedev stuff may be bad enough to justify Boris’s immediate departure.

    It'd be nice to get the next PM market settled on Raab whilst having the Next Con markets still live but I have my doubts.

    What's Boris alleged to have done with the owner of the Standard and Independent this time round though ?

    Is George Osborne involved ? :D
    Don’t forget Sam Cam’s sister (Emily Sheffield) took his money as well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Boy, I see you're being a silly sausage today.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW Westminster VI

    Labour’s vote share reaches new 2019 parliament heights -45% with a 14 point lead over the Conservatives, not seen since 2013 in a regular poll.

    LAB 45% (+2)
    CON 31% (-4)
    LD 11% (-)
    SNP 5% (+2)
    GRE 3(+1)
    GRN 2% (-)
    OTH 6% (+1)
    Details: https://www.survation.com/labours-vote-share-reaches-new-parliament-heights-45-with-a-14-point-lead-of-the-conservatives-not-seen-since-2013/ https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1545399480958291970/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    If that is a photo from this afternoon, hats off to Sir Beer! My mind is changed, what a guy, and a pint, lucky b******.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I wonder if Starmer thinks just repeatedly asking for a General election, or stating that it's needed, is any much different from the SNP just repeatedly asking for an independence referendum, or stating that it's needed.

    All mouth and no trousers. A VONC would have no good outcome for Con or bad for him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    Exactly. KevB pointed this out, everyone mocked him and whether he is a computer bank in Moscow or some bloke in his undies posting from his mother's basement it is a very good point.
    It’s uncomfortable for me.
    I hate Boris, and am glad to see him go.
    I think it is right that he goes, chiefly for repeated lying to his colleagues, the House, and the country.

    But those redwallers know he’s a liar.
    And they don’t care; from their perspective it’s part of the game. What’s important to them is that he was on their side, somehow. And now he’s gone, taken down by the same old forces the redwallers were voting against.

    Perhaps the argument is that they know he is a liar, but think ALL politicians are liars, and that Johnson was their liar?
    There is that, or maybe they follow the to make an omelette you must break a few eggs line.
    And also. He was the first PM to actually point out that this is one of the most regionally unequal nations in the Western world. With dire levels of social mobility. And acknowledge this was a bad thing. And repeatedly promise to do something about it. (The fact he hadn't a clue what that was isn't really relevant. He spoke about it).
    I watched the key Boris speech on this, and he understood the key issues very well, he literally repeated a lot of the academic analysis.

    The problem is that he is so incredibly lazy that he couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it. He left it to Gove to fight it out with Sunak/Treasury (and other naysayers like Kwasi) and it essentially collapsed into a hanging-baskets fund.

    If you want to level up you essentially needs to dedicate something like 4% of GDP for a generation to address it; although it would be well worth it.
    He found a new tranche of voters. It didn't fail because he was too lazy (although he is), but because it was fundamentally at odds with the ideology of the majority of the Conservative Party, who have kittens at anything even scented with re-distribution.
    They won't get that tranche back anytime soon.
    They'll get most of those on this site back.
    The question is which group is bigger?
    I don’t think so.

    Boris actually had immense power because of his electoral appeal. He managed to turn the Tories into the “fuck business” party with the full support of supposed life-long conservatives.

    He also had the loyalty within the party of the redwall MPs.

    From a policy and operational perspective, his biggest mistake was probably not making Gove Chancellor and ceding effective control of domestic policy to him.
    That’s an interesting hypothesis. Perhaps what was fatal for Blair would have worked well for Boris.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    This is a very insightful post.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny how until yesterday the TV media couldn't find anyone who supported Boris Johnson. Now most of the people they're interviewing are fans of the PM.

    A lot of people will just be polite. Like I said earlier the British people are a fair bunch most of the time. Now he's announced his resignation *most* people will be polite and wish him well (and will be entirely unfussed about him spending his final weeks as acting PM)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    @northern_monkey

    Superb post. And, as for your description of the life they remember, doesn’t that actually sound incredibly attractive?

    It’s the left’s failure that they’ve generally stopped talking in these terms. Most people don’t care about woke, about “institutional failures”, about “independent enquiries” or even “increasing inequality”.

    They just want the receptionist at the doctor’s to pick up the phone.

    And buses that turn up 99% of the time
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Pulpstar said:

    Irrelevant but if I were Sunak I would be spitting tacks. He turns up for a work meeting and ends up with a FPN. Starmer at a work event no FPN (correctly).

    Far more events at No 10 seemingly should have been fined.

    The whole thing stinks, but its time to forget it.

    i. He accepted the fine.
    ii. Didn't lie about it in parliament
    iii. It was clearly Boris' fault inviting to the meeting.
    iv. The fine was a bit harsh.
    v. I doubt most of the public even know he got a fine (All the focus on Boris)

    Many things might kill his leadership chances (Non Dom, immense wealth, tax raises whilst chancellor) but this isn't one of them.
    Wasn't really talking about the leadership - I think the other things you've listed are far more detrimental. Its more the fairness of it. A bit like my speeding ticket at 27 mph in a 20 zone (which is only 200 yards long) while on the motorways right now thousands are driving over 80 mph.
    A 200 yard 20 zone is presumably a school or similar?

    What's more deadly, speeding in a residential or school area where young children might step onto the road, or doing 80 on the motorway?
    No school. It's at the top of Bathwick hill in bath, two junctions, but no school. It's a shit bit of traffic control. Goes national speed limit to 30 then 40 then 30 then 20 then 30 in about a mile. It's unecessary. I know the physics around impact and speed. I just don't think this 20 is justified. Round schools I agree with them
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    The video of disappointed Boris voters in the red wall posted on the last thread by MickG or whatever his name is, was very very interesting.

    The media / Tories / establishment have removed “their Boris”, who they voted for “knowing full well he made mistakes, like all of us”.

    They do have a point.

    I know tons of people like that. Older, poorly educated, always done hard physical, boring work. (I once had a friend from Oz visit me as art of a jaunt round the UK, and he had to sit and wait for me in Pontefract town centre for a bit while I got back from somewhere. When I get there he said 'God, everyone looks like a physical wreck. They've had hard lives, you can tell.')

    If they haven't stopped, they smoke baccy now, or vape, cos packets of 20 cigs are too expensive. Spent their lives reading the sun and mail at chipped formica tables in scabby work canteens. Do the lottery every single week, probably as part of a syndicate. They'll be gutted. Nice people generally, backbone of this country in many ways.

    I'm not sneering at these people. I've been there and done it myself, before finally getting my shit together and going to uni when I was 27. I still drink with them. They're funny, smart, self-deprecating, fatalistic, stoic, they don't suffer fools.

    It is bonkers how they identify so strongly with Johnson. My take on it is that he embodies this idea of England as they remember it from their childhood, that he promises to resurrect, that Brexit will bring back. A place where everything worked. Everyone had a job. You could get a doctor's appointment by ringing up the surgery at ten past 8, and after three rings you would be speaking to a receptionist - a human! - and get your appointment for half 11 that morning. Households could live comfortably off one wage. There were park keepers. And dog wardens. And industry. Police would turn up when your shed got broken into, no such thing as a crime number. You could get a job by showing up somewhere and asking for one, didn't have to fill out a form or have an interview. They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again.

    Driven by nostalgia.

    And instead of having to think about all the complicated, interconnected reasons why that world has gone, the political decisions taken, the tax cuts, the underfunding, 'trickle down', they prefer to blame foreigners. Cos it's easier. And that's what's been shovelled into their brains for decades.

    Shame really. They won't change their minds now.
    Great post and your point that "... They can't understand why the world doesn't work like that anymore. And can't see why it shouldn't again." is an excellent summary in itself. I agree with it and I think a lot of the issues we have are the well known British issues of "Jobsworth", "Guilding the lily" and "Not my problem". Too many make a virtue of passing the buck, but it is nothing to do with "Woke", it is just an excuse to do as little as possible. Twenty years ago the excuse was 9/11 when the world went security mad but Britain went bat-sh*t crazy on "security". Thirty years ago it was "Data Protection". Forty years ago it was "Down-sizing", etc etc...

    Nowadays the internet and its related technologies allow many businesses to hide behind technology and have as little interaction with their customers and when it does go wrong complaining is almost impossible because no one want to hear complaints and the listeners/receivers of complaints have to be human which means paying them (so use that cheap internet technology to pay Indians and Indonesians £1 a day)

    There will always be an excuse for goldbricking. There always has been and there always will be. Today is "Woke" and next year or the year after it will be something else and many people will still be neglected as they always have been.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    GIN1138 said:

    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    I mean out of that lot only Javid, Mourdant, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Hunt, Patel and Zahawi are actually players. The rest are just wasting everyone's time.
    Tbh, thought Buckland was being ironic yesterday. They might as well list the Workington guy if they're listing him.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited July 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Applicant said:

    Updated candidates list from Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expressed interest: Badenoch, Baker, Baron, Berry, Buckland, Chishti, Javid, Mordaunt, Shapps, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Potential: Barclay, Harper, Hunt, Kwarteng, McVey, Patel
    Declined: Cleverly, Ellwood, Hancock, Leadsom, Raab

    Gove has disappeared from the "Declined" list...

    I mean out of that lot only Javid, Mourdant, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Hunt, Patel and Zahawi are actually players. The rest are just wasting everyone's time.
    EDIT: Double post. Again. Maaan!
This discussion has been closed.