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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    I'll say 225 in favour
    123 against
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited June 2022
    And the result is...

    (Eastenders "doof doof doof"...)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    DavidL said:

    Chris Mason is a serious step down from Laura Kuenssberg (even if his name is a hell of a lot easier to spell). He brings no value at all, tripping from banality to banality.

    Eddie Mair had him nailed back when he was still at R4. A comedy Chris Mason spot every night. About all he's good at - which of course is why the pro-Tory BBC News managers unexpectedly gave him the job.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    mwadams said:

    kle4 said:

    I would love a shock, but I fear the front bench have reason to be smug. The rebels don't have much to hold over their heads from this point onwards.

    Really? All the declared rebels are on the other side of the river and there's nothing for them to lose now.
    There's no issue to rally around, if they fail, to coordinate a campaign of resistance to blackade government.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    We’re on
  • Here we go ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    I'll say 225 in favour
    123 against

    I think that's about right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I'd said 226-133 to Boris in the end. How bad am I out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Confidence - 211

    No Confidence - 148

    359 cast
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,046
    211/148
  • 211 / 148
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    211/148 in favour
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Vote Labour.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    148. Kaboom
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    BORING
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    211 yes
    148 no
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932
    edited June 2022
    Boris wins 211 to 148, 58% to 42% and survives as leader and PM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    211 - 148
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Toast
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    He’s a dead man walking.
  • 211 to 148.

    Labour landslide is on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited June 2022
    359 voted

    211 - 148
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Put a fork in him, he’s done.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    211 to 148.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    Lower than Theresa May.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    148. Basically bang on the central projection.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited June 2022
    That’s shockingly bad! 148!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154

    211/148

    Phew - that's meaningfully worse than TMay.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    32 short of winning, cowards.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    Wow! worse than T May!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    kle4 said:

    I'd said 226-133 to Boris in the end. How bad am I out?

    Not bad really.
  • That's his majority gone.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Vote SNP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Worse than May.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,392
    148 against - that's a massive blow to his authority.

    Hard to see how he can carry on much longer. That must include a big chunk of the payroll vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    211 vs. 148
  • 211-148
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Worse than May!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Tory Party bottled it. Dreadful result.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    98 is my guess.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    Andy_JS said:

    211 to 148.

    Bugger! 2 rebels off winning my bet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    59%:41%
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    58.7% vs 41.3%
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    What's wrong with that duck?

    Oh, it's lame.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    edited June 2022
    I make that just over 40% of the Parliamentary party against, which I think is substantially worse than TMay.

    (And presumably also a substantial majority of those MPs not on the Government payroll.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    worse % than Theresa May
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    rcs1000 said:

    211/148

    Phew - that's meaningfully worse than TMay.
    This party is no longer fit to govern. Divided, incompetent, useless. Bah.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    He won’t make it to December on that. Maybe not even the recess. That’s my prediction.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    148. Worse than May?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Grim faces from Graham Brady and the rest of the executive committee members.
  • 59% - worse than May
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Maybe the LibDems do have a chance in Tiverton & Honiton after all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,013
    Same time next year....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    Fewer than 60% of Conservative MPs have confidence in BJ.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Fair play to Brady. He didn't hang around.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Would have been nice to get him below 200, psycological blow. 59%-41%

    Well, it's a bit lower than Corbyn managed against Smith (among Members)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    4% worse than Theresa May and she was out pretty quickly.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    That really is a poor result. I see why they were briefing "a win is a win".
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    If you want change from this you’ll have vote him out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,046
    HYUFD said:

    Boris wins 211 to 148, 58% to 42% and survives as leader and PM.

    Not for long
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    That is a terrible result for Boris
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I think that's him done.

    But to be true to what I posted earlier, I look forward to fall-out and reasoned analysis as the week progresses.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    First (with the result!)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Farooq said:

    Can someone post the result please?

    We’re watching the passing of an era, but no-one realises it yet….
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Tory Party bottled it. Dreadful result.

    If he had any honour he’d resign now. But he won’t.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    My dad's prediction was better than mine — he went with 150.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    59% - worse than May

    Don't worry, Rees-Mogg and Raab will be along in a moment to explain their damascene conversion away from the idea that that means the winner should resign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    The unflushable turd remains in the bowl
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Whew! Just inside the band for a winning bet :)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Tory Party bottled it. Dreadful result.

    It’s a shocking reflection on them. There really was no good reason to support him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,932

    59% - worse than May

    4% better than Thatcher got in the first ballot in 1990 though and 13% higher than IDS got in 2003 in his VONC
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    needs 32 to change their mind......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Boris Johnson won with 59% of the votes.

    Theresa May had 63% of the votes in 2018, she resigned months later


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1533902226661462016
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719

    HYUFD said:

    Boris wins 211 to 148, 58% to 42% and survives as leader and PM.

    Not for long
    One vote is enough. Onwards, to greatness my friends!!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    Tories are doomed IMO, the next leader won't get a bounce because they'll be associated with this act of cowardice.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    At the next GE it’s all going to be a bit French Resistance members after WW2 when more Tory MPs tell their constituents they voted no confidence than the numbers prove.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Great result for labour
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    211 to 148.

    Bugger! 2 rebels off winning my bet.
    Still, almost spot on my 60/40 prediction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    What's wrong with that duck?

    Oh, it's lame.

    Limpy the duck….
  • MaxPB said:

    4% worse than Theresa May and she was out pretty quickly.

    I don't think that's comparable remotely, she couldn't get her flagship policy through Parliament.

    The MPs have bottled it, they can't expect a resignation in a few months time to let them off the hook, they had the chance to oust him today and they haven't taken it. That's on them.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    Not great, not terrible.

    Worst possible result for the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    So it's all down to Tiverton?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Boris Johnson won with 59% of the votes.

    Theresa May had 63% of the votes in 2018, she resigned months later


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1533902226661462016

    Yeah, but she had to deal with Boris, and he at least is spared that.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    He needs a reshuffle and kick the dross out of cabinet. Mogg, Dorries and their ilk are unfit for the roles they fill.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    Cowards.

    And now the BBC treat us to extreme close ups of the gammon.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Great result for the opposition parties. A terrible result for Johnson. A disastrous result for the UK.

    I think that nails it on all three counts.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Defection watch
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Boris will say, 'blah blah blah ... this a wakeup call for me ... mistakes I've made a few ... time to turn a new leaf ... blah blah blah' Nothing will change of course, but this will all be tomorrow's chip paper. Then all eyes will turn to Sir Keir and his fine.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    How do you fight a general election with a leader who has the confidence of less than 60% of his own MPs?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    SKS, this is your moment. Give me a reason to vote for you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    MaxPB said:

    4% worse than Theresa May and she was out pretty quickly.

    I don't think that's comparable remotely, she couldn't get her flagship policy through Parliament.

    The MPs have bottled it, they can't expect a resignation in a few months time to let them off the hook, they had the chance to oust him today and they haven't taken it. That's on them.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzxFTrktN1c
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    MaxPB said:

    4% worse than Theresa May and she was out pretty quickly.

    Completely different situation though. I think he is safe for a while now unless the Privileges Committee or the House votes to suspend him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    So it's all down to Tiverton?

    Nah. It'll only be lost because the party was engaged in navel gazing about its leadership, it'd be won easily if only people had united sooner.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    58.8% pro Boris
This discussion has been closed.