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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 13 in General
imageThe ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,309
    Toast.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916
    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 272
    I love that famous xkcd cartoon -- but there is a mistake in it: https://xkcd.com/1122/

    (I can think of an easy correction, and you all should be able to think of many more.)

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,782
    Bye bye BoJo… (I hope)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,302

    rcs1000 said:

    He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.

    But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.

    That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
    Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
    To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
    We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.

    If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
    I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.

    Do you think that flowed from inner conviction, or wanting to talk about that rather than anything else?

    Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
    All we can say is that the policy seems to have nearly unanimous support in the Government, among Conservative MPs and the opposition front and back benches.
    So removing Johnson would have zero impact upon it.
    Yes, I think it would have no effect on the UK-Ukraine policy. A new leader might well put some extra support in, just to make the situation clear to Russia etc...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,937
    109 declared for him.
    Why wouldn't you if you were?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,923
    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 211
    Well, the scientifically conducted poll of people on the camping beach of Antiparos this afternoon is… Boris 0% Not Boris 100%… excluding continentals, the poll of the Brits is the same
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,399
    How is Belgium?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,023
    I think 121 publicly supporting Boris by 4pm suggests maybe 150-160 in the final vote. If he does win, it's going to be by a small margin, but as at now I think it's more likely that he loses.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,760

    FPT:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

    By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

    It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

    And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
    Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

    He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.
    I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.
    So am I.

    I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.

    Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.
    Has a sitting PM *ever* lost a VONC?
    An internal VONC (ie, a party VONC, not a Parliamentary one). I think the answer is no.
    We’re about to witness history folks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,302
    Pro_Rata said:

    How is Belgium?

    Not invaded. Yet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916
    Baker says BJ will win but big vote against
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,937
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    dixiedean said:

    109 declared for him.
    Why wouldn't you if you were?

    If you weren't sure he would win.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,824
    FPT
    Scott_xP said:
    Very much worth reading while Johnson’s fate hangs in the balance https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1533780722304942085

    I said:
    That's a pretty fair assessment and one I largely agree with but I would make 2 points.

    Firstly, and critically, where is the economic competence that the government is so sorely lacking going to come from? The only one who might have offered it is Rishi but he has been holed below the water line by his own FPN.

    Secondly, the next 18 months are going to be very difficult, no matter who is leader. A whole lot of grief is coming and the government is going to struggle very badly with numerous things out of its control. Is this really going to set up any new leader for the next election or should Boris have to take this grief for now and change leaders later?

    If I was a Tory MP tonight I really don't know what I would do. There are no good choices, to be honest. Its what is the least bad.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,760

    I think 121 publicly supporting Boris by 4pm suggests maybe 150-160 in the final vote. If he does win, it's going to be by a small margin, but as at now I think it's more likely that he loses.

    I hope he wins by a single vote. He’s going to be the biggest Lame Duck in English history.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,635
    edited June 6
    FPT

    Johnson tells Conservative MPs: “Now is not the moment.”

    Said President Zelensky told him he wanted a “strong UK” this morning


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533828835422220288

    Christ, even Zelensky wants him out? I thought he was supposed to be a fan :wink:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,023
    edited June 6

    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog

    Yes, the implication is 'You are quite right to want to get rid of me, but could you perhaps delay it a bit?'

    It was arguably a reasonable line before the VONC was called, but he needed a different line now.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,635
    dixiedean said:

    109 declared for him.
    Why wouldn't you if you were?

    Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,617

    I think 121 publicly supporting Boris by 4pm suggests maybe 150-160 in the final vote. If he does win, it's going to be by a small margin, but as at now I think it's more likely that he loses.

    A small win would be joyous for Labour and Liberals. Wounded Johnson, hated by the public, only just supported by his MPs, remains in office. His cult will go mad, running around shouting this proves he is a genius and made of teflon and no one better dare take him on again. There'll be a reshuffle where the most outspoken supporters like Mogg get the great offices of state.

    Then we have the by-elections...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    Utterly bizarre. Not a statement by her at all, a projection of what she will do by a staffer.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,143
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like losing a girlfriend with Borderline Personality Disorder, the highs were great, the lows were terrible, the lies were constant, the instability made it hard to get anything done, the friends were terrible and ultimately there was no future in it however fond of her.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,072
    Steve Baker is addressing the media after the 1922 committee. “It’s a very very sad day” but confirmed he’s voting against the prime minister tonight. “He’s clearly broken the law and he should go” https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533832652138086401/photo/1
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,399
    I remain on 124-235 against Boris.

    I might go for a tad lower margin if I guessed now, but not that much, and I don't see the need to resile from an already stated guess.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Historical precedent not really on @BorisJohnson’s side on this one. Churchill replacing Chamberlain? And British troops were about to go into action to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait at the end of 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was brought down

    Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire
    Tory MPs say Boris Johnson cited “Putin’s aggression” as a reason not to oust him at meeting of 1922 Committee just now twitter.com/patrickkmaguir…


    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1533832411863195650
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,923
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484

    I think 121 publicly supporting Boris by 4pm suggests maybe 150-160 in the final vote. If he does win, it's going to be by a small margin, but as at now I think it's more likely that he loses.

    Last time he addressed the '22 it was so bad that letters started going in, with MPs citing the appalling bluster from Him at the '22 as a reason for doing so.

    Perhaps his current appearance isn't the best thing he could be doing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,434
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    The main thing Johnson always had going for him was that he wasn't just a managerial politician but someone who was able to see the limits of conventional wisdom. His legacy will depend on what comes next.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,782
    Scott_xP said:

    Steve Baker is addressing the media after the 1922 committee. “It’s a very very sad day” but confirmed he’s voting against the prime minister tonight. “He’s clearly broken the law and he should go” https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533832652138086401/photo/1

    If the ERG-ers are lost I can’t see how he wins.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,760

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.

    Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.

    Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.

    https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533804069994766336

    I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
    I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
    In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.

    He's still a shit.
    He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
    He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.

    But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.

    The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
    But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action

    Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that

    You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
    I doubt that Brexit would have won in 2016 if Johnson (who probably has no strong views on the subject and supported Leave in order to further his own career) hadn't fronted the campaign. So I think you can definitely blame him for putting the country in the shitty position of having to implement a policy built on mutually inconsistent promises. He is the most destructive politician to have ever led this country, we will still be clearing up his mess ten years from now.
    Ten years? You’re an optimist.

    I think the bounder Johnson has set England on course for several decades of decline.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916

    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog

    Yes, the implication is 'You are quite right to want to get rid of me, but could you perhaps delay it a bit?'

    It was arguably a reasonable line before the VONC was called, but he needed a different line now.
    Mood music after the 22 seems to be he survives, just.
    Ill be really pissed off if so. Cowards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,617
    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,851
    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    #MeToo
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,250

    I think 121 publicly supporting Boris by 4pm suggests maybe 150-160 in the final vote. If he does win, it's going to be by a small margin, but as at now I think it's more likely that he loses.

    I hope he wins by a single vote. He’s going to be the biggest Lame Duck in English history.
    Who's the biggest lame duck in British history?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,946
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 863
    I'm sick of damp squibs. FPNs. Sue Gray. I think this will be another one. Johnson will, I think on no evidence whatsoever, survive. Wounded but will stagger on shamelessly. 'One vote is enough' (GOP levels of hypocrisy when it comes to selecting Supreme Court members with that assertion, but that's modern politicians for you) and I think he'll survive by more than one.

    Part of me would love to see him unceremoniously booted out. But it might be a case of better the devil you know. I dread to think who the membership of the party might foist on us if Johnson is defenestrated.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,923
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like losing a girlfriend with Borderline Personality Disorder, the highs were great, the lows were terrible, the lies were constant, the instability made it hard to get anything done, the friends were terrible and ultimately there was no future in it however fond of her.
    But the sex was incredible

    Metaphorically. If forced to imagine sex with Boris I would imagine it is fairly perfunctory but there’s quite a lot of it
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    We need to consider what BJ does if he loses tonight. A MASSIVE humiliation. Even Theresa May won her confidence vote. He isn't loved any more, he's on his way out, sat alone in Downing Street.

    Raab PM by Friday?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,312

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    What better way to move on than to boot him out?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov by contrast finds 53% of Conservative members and 59% of Conservative voters wanting Johnson to stay

    Popular guy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,937

    Utterly bizarre. Not a statement by her at all, a projection of what she will do by a staffer.
    Yes. I "look forward" to bedding Kylie Minogue...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,044
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like losing a girlfriend with Borderline Personality Disorder, the highs were great, the lows were terrible, the lies were constant, the instability made it hard to get anything done, the friends were terrible and ultimately there was no future in it however fond of her.
    But the sex was incredible

    Metaphorically. If forced to imagine sex with Boris I would imagine it is fairly perfunctory but there’s quite a lot of it
    You have a choice between the falling wardrobe with the key and the falling sack of custard
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,760

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

    "Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

    2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

    3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

    4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

    Tory civil war.
    Absolutely delicious.
    Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

    BUT ....

    What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

    Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.
    Why would they have done anything, realistically?

    The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.

    Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.
    Pandemic preparedness should always be on the radar, just as a war should always be on the radar.
    Right. But the point is that there was a perfectly viable pandemic preparedness plan, which Boris (panicked by the photos coming out of Italy) chucked in the bin under pressure from the media. The problem wasn't the planning, the problem was the panic.
    Memory failing me here. What plan did Johnson chuck in the bin?
    The plan was to slow the spread by shielding the vulnerable, with some social distancing, working from home etc. This was to build up herd immunity in those who would get over covid without issues.

    Italy put the willies up everyone as it looked like health services would be overwhelmed, with people who might otherwise be saved, dying thought lack of a bed and anyone to treat them. That's why we locked down, as the original plan of a drawn out by flatter infection wave was abandoned as potentially catastrophic.
    Aha. The Sweden plan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,309
    Scott_xP said:

    Steve Baker is addressing the media after the 1922 committee. “It’s a very very sad day” but confirmed he’s voting against the prime minister tonight. “He’s clearly broken the law and he should go” https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533832652138086401/photo/1

    Anybody supporting Boris tonight is supporting a law-breaker.

    Quite a position from Steve Baker.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,617
    edited June 6
    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,782

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    Those MPs will be the ones handpicked by the govt to make a beeline to a reporter and spout the party line. I’m not sure it tells us anything right now. As it stands I don’t believe he’s got the numbers declared for him that are needed… yet.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,621
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
    'Cakes and ale' is Sir Toby Belch - who is a better Shakespearean match to Boris.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533832318418309120

    "Handbags at the ‘22…

    Mark Harper asks why “colleagues should continue to defend the indefensible” and asks why PM removed references to “honesty and integrity” from foreword of ministerial code

    Adds: “There’s no point the prime minister pulling a face at me.”

    and

    "Boris Johnson says he takes “real exception” to Harper questioning his honesty and integrity

    Responds with reference to leadership in the Nolan principles and argues he showed that during the pandemic

    MP heckles: “That’s not what the Sue Gray report says.”"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Steve Baker is addressing the media after the 1922 committee. “It’s a very very sad day” but confirmed he’s voting against the prime minister tonight. “He’s clearly broken the law and he should go”

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533832652138086401
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,309

    I'm sick of damp squibs. FPNs. Sue Gray. I think this will be another one. Johnson will, I think on no evidence whatsoever, survive. Wounded but will stagger on shamelessly. 'One vote is enough' (GOP levels of hypocrisy when it comes to selecting Supreme Court members with that assertion, but that's modern politicians for you) and I think he'll survive by more than one.

    Part of me would love to see him unceremoniously booted out. But it might be a case of better the devil you know. I dread to think who the membership of the party might foist on us if Johnson is defenestrated.

    You'd be right to dread Mordaunt....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,937
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
    Sir Beer Korma, which you incomprehensibly, and seemingly alone, find amusing, is symbolic of why folk want him out.
    The jokes are falling flat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,381
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Applicant said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.

    Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.

    Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.

    https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533804069994766336

    I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
    I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
    In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.

    He's still a shit.
    He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
    An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
    Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.

    I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
    No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.

    So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
    Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
    We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)

    Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.

    Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.

    But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
    Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:

    February 4 - Denmark
    March 14 - France
    April 1 - UK
    April 4 - Germany

    I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
    Hmm, that doesn't take into account the July 2021 unlockdown which other countries didn't have and the non-measures for Omicron. The government also stared down a lot of the dickhead scientists on their own committees and took accusations of being in favour of people dying when they did it too. On COVID the government, IMO, has got a very good record wrt unlockdown, one of the best globally.
    I don't disagree.

    BUT THAT WASN'T THE POINT I WAS MAKING!

    @moonshine argued that we'd still have mask mandates if Hunt was PM. My argument was that as even the European countries has gotten rid of theirs, I doubt we'd be going out on a limb
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916
    These Tory pricks are going to vote to keep him then in a month when they are 15 to 20 points behind will be all butt hurt and wondering why.
    Its not about YOU forgiving and moving on you myopic fuckers
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484

    Scott_xP said:

    Steve Baker is addressing the media after the 1922 committee. “It’s a very very sad day” but confirmed he’s voting against the prime minister tonight. “He’s clearly broken the law and he should go” https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533832652138086401/photo/1

    Anybody supporting Boris tonight is supporting a law-breaker.

    Quite a position from Steve Baker.
    Ewww. Steve Baker making the point I have been making.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    There's only one way to draw a line and move on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,824

    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog

    Yes, the implication is 'You are quite right to want to get rid of me, but could you perhaps delay it a bit?'

    It was arguably a reasonable line before the VONC was called, but he needed a different line now.
    What politician in history has ever said, yep, if you want to get rid of me, now is as good a time as any, I suppose? What else was he supposed to say? I think that there is an argument that he should bear the grief of inflation, cost of living, strikes, possible power shortages and several other things that were and were not aggravated by silly short termism and a lack of focus on what actually matters, but that is not the argument for Boris either.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,261

    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog

    Yes, the implication is 'You are quite right to want to get rid of me, but could you perhaps delay it a bit?'

    It was arguably a reasonable line before the VONC was called, but he needed a different line now.
    Mood music after the 22 seems to be he survives, just.
    Ill be really pissed off if so. Cowards.
    Yep Incompetent Coward sums up your typical Tory MP..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,434
    @patrickkmaguire
    Boris Johnson says he takes “real exception” to Harper questioning his honesty and integrity

    Responds with reference to leadership in the Nolan principles and argues he showed that during the pandemic

    MP heckles: “That’s not what the Sue Gray report says.”


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533832736083005440
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,851
    edited June 6

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    It'll be interesting to see the level of psychological trauma Boris's departure will inflict upon the Tories. Boris has been around for decades, putting the world to rights in articles and making the British conservatives feel good about themselves and their opinions. 'Boris for PM!' was the refrain. If Boris is kicked out in disgrace, something deep within the Tories will die with him: where for years they thought they'd seen success and confidence there was only failure.
    A long period of political oblivion awaits the Tories I think.

    They may scrape home in 2024 (like 92) for no other reason that it takes a lot of lose a landslide majority in one go... but I'm convinced the 2030s will be a Labour decade and a good ten years or more of Opposition is on the way for Con.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,023
    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    2 out of the 5 questions to Johnson were hostile.


    That's interesting... only five questions? They've already made their minds up, haven't they? To me that's another bad sign for Boris.

    (I might be completely wrong, of course!)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,189

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    Anything over 120 and they will cause chaos until Boris is gone

    He will be gone by July if not before
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,072

    Historical precedent not really on @BorisJohnson’s side on this one. Churchill replacing Chamberlain? And British troops were about to go into action to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait at the end of 1990 when Margaret Thatcher was brought down

    Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire
    Tory MPs say Boris Johnson cited “Putin’s aggression” as a reason not to oust him at meeting of 1922 Committee just now twitter.com/patrickkmaguir…


    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1533832411863195650

    A long time Tory activist made this point to me earlier.

    If Churchill had said at the time there was "no obvious successor", there were 5 future Prime Ministers in the Commons
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.

    Baker seems to also think he survives though
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Applicant said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.

    Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.

    Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.

    https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533804069994766336

    I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
    I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
    In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.

    He's still a shit.
    He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
    An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
    Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.

    I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
    No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.

    So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
    Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
    We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)

    Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.

    Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.

    But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
    Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:

    February 4 - Denmark
    March 14 - France
    April 1 - UK
    April 4 - Germany

    I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
    Hmm, that doesn't take into account the July 2021 unlockdown which other countries didn't have and the non-measures for Omicron. The government also stared down a lot of the dickhead scientists on their own committees and took accusations of being in favour of people dying when they did it too. On COVID the government, IMO, has got a very good record wrt unlockdown, one of the best globally.
    I don't disagree.

    BUT THAT WASN'T THE POINT I WAS MAKING!

    @moonshine argued that we'd still have mask mandates if Hunt was PM. My argument was that as even the European countries has gotten rid of theirs, I doubt we'd be going out on a limb
    It's hard to say with Hunt. I don't think he's be very bold and we'd still have a raft of restrictions. We'd certainly still have recommendations and potentially mandates in airports and on planes like Italy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,309

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
    'Cakes and ale' is Sir Toby Belch - who is a better Shakespearean match to Boris.
    He is more Flashheart from Blackadder.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Johnson telling the '22 now is not the moment is weak, weak, weak
    May as well beg like a dog

    It reminds of the standard government in crisis defence - in a crisis you dont want newbies in charge, so no change. And if there's no crisis why would you change?

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,003
    HYUFD said:
    Huge endorsement.

    In all seriousness- the fact he was openly asked 2 hostile questions (out of 5) suggests that things are close. I think many have been underestimating the mood in the parliamentary party.

    On the flip side, if he does lose it, there will be no greater joy than to see an end to his career in such a manner
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,961

    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

    "Nadine Dorries
    @NadineDorries
    1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

    2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

    3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

    4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

    Tory civil war.
    Absolutely delicious.
    Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

    BUT ....

    What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

    Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.
    Why would they have done anything, realistically?

    The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.

    Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.
    Pandemic preparedness should always be on the radar, just as a war should always be on the radar.
    Right. But the point is that there was a perfectly viable pandemic preparedness plan, which Boris (panicked by the photos coming out of Italy) chucked in the bin under pressure from the media. The problem wasn't the planning, the problem was the panic.
    Memory failing me here. What plan did Johnson chuck in the bin?
    The plan was to slow the spread by shielding the vulnerable, with some social distancing, working from home etc. This was to build up herd immunity in those who would get over covid without issues.

    Italy put the willies up everyone as it looked like health services would be overwhelmed, with people who might otherwise be saved, dying thought lack of a bed and anyone to treat them. That's why we locked down, as the original plan of a drawn out by flatter infection wave was abandoned as potentially catastrophic.
    Aha. The Sweden plan.
    Pretty much. i'd note that the Swedish response is not without critics, and the two nations are very hard to compare in health terms owing to different living conditions etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,072
    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,003

    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    2 out of the 5 questions to Johnson were hostile.


    That's interesting... only five questions? They've already made their minds up, haven't they? To me that's another bad sign for Boris.

    (I might be completely wrong, of course!)

    Thought exactly this. The fact he was reported to be pulling faces to a hostile question - about integrity - is probably a bad sign
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    A suggestion for loyal Tory MPs to wear the ‘Back Boris’ lanyards handed out in the initial 2019 party leadership contest doesn’t appear to have been widely taken up…

    I didn’t clock any among scores of MPs heading into 1922 cmtte meeting just now. A colleague has spotted one.


    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533834685968703491
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,139
    MaxPB said:

    Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.

    Baker called for Boris to resign back in April. Hardly a surprise he still thinks the same.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    ROFL what a wazzock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    @patrickkmaguire
    Boris Johnson says he takes “real exception” to Harper questioning his honesty and integrity

    Responds with reference to leadership in the Nolan principles and argues he showed that during the pandemic

    MP heckles: “That’s not what the Sue Gray report says.”


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533832736083005440

    Like how the disloyal can be the most angered by those who are not loyal to them, it takes real gumption for someone sacked many times for lying and who very recently at best inadvertently misled the House to take exception to critiques of his honesty.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,916
    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Triple ferret with pike. Hes become a joke
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,139

    A suggestion for loyal Tory MPs to wear the ‘Back Boris’ lanyards handed out in the initial 2019 party leadership contest doesn’t appear to have been widely taken up…

    I didn’t clock any among scores of MPs heading into 1922 cmtte meeting just now. A colleague has spotted one.


    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533834685968703491

    Nadine?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,851
    Pro_Rata said:

    I remain on 124-235 against Boris.

    I might go for a tad lower margin if I guessed now, but not that much, and I don't see the need to resile from an already stated guess.

    If you think that, there's cracking value at backing the 200-249 band on Betfair at 34s
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,969
    "There’s no point the prime minister pulling a face at me."

    That's Boris all over, isn't it? A face as flexible as his ethics. An eye-rolling teen.
    I'm all of you who have had children go through that early teen stage will know that however much you love them, you wouldn't want them in charge of anything important. Not til they grow up a little.

    Which leads us to the question, why did Boris Johnson never grow up?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    ROFL what a wazzock.
    Hed be advised to make no statement - nothing could explain his twistiness on this issue
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,471
    Selebian said:

    FPT

    Johnson tells Conservative MPs: “Now is not the moment.”

    Said President Zelensky told him he wanted a “strong UK” this morning


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533828835422220288

    Christ, even Zelensky wants him out? I thought he was supposed to be a fan :wink:
    He is.

    Maybe he'll offer Boris a job?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892

    MaxPB said:

    Wow, Steve Baker coming out and saying he's against is big. The market feels like it is being propped up by a Boris backer right now. That's a dagger and should have moved it quite significantly to Boris losing.

    Baker called for Boris to resign back in April. Hardly a surprise he still thinks the same.
    Indeed, but the point is that I don't see where Boris is going to get his support from. If the Brexit spartans are out then where does the 180 come from? It's a secret ballot, Team Pig Dog have no power over anyone in this.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,008

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    Anything over 120 and they will cause chaos until Boris is gone

    He will be gone by July if not before
    Part of me thinks "Good". The vindictive, Old Testament God bit of me wants him to suffer every indigity he heaped on others as he clambered up the greasy pole. If he loses outright tonight, it's too quick, too painless.

    Then I remember that this guy runs the country I live in. If he doesn't go until 8.30 pm, that's 30 minutes too long.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,072
    Johnson loyalists were giving a bullish account of the PM’s performance outside the 1922 Committee just now. But asked whether he had done enough to convince mutineers to vote with him, one rebel simply mouthed: “No” as they walked out.
    https://twitter.com/RichardVaughan1/status/1533835945446887424
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    ROFL what a wazzock.
    Hed be advised to make no statement - nothing could explain his twistiness on this issue
    He twists and turns like a twisty-turny thing.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,063
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson told the meeting "the best is yet to come".
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533835719168376832

    This is true.

    The day he leaves will be his best day in office.

    Second-best day, perhaps. The day he tonked Corbyn was the best day.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,851

    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now

    I'd say it's 35-40% chance Boris loses outright now (and that's up from c.20% this morning)

    So those odds are value. I've certainly topped up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%


    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,072
    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%

    https://twitter.com/ChrisBurn_Post/status/1533836369696538625
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    edited June 6
    The worry for MPs is that Boris will claim they will lose at the next GE without him, and they can be sure he will work night and day to make that true. There is little doubt I think that he would rather they lose than win if they oust him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892

    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    2 out of the 5 questions to Johnson were hostile.


    That's interesting... only five questions? They've already made their minds up, haven't they? To me that's another bad sign for Boris.

    (I might be completely wrong, of course!)

    Thought exactly this. The fact he was reported to be pulling faces to a hostile question - about integrity - is probably a bad sign
    The other hostile question was from John Baron - about as 24-carat a hard Brexiteer as you can find. (Not a surprise - he's already made it clear that he thinks the PM should go - but it blows the argument that it's just a Remoaner plot out of the water).
    And this is the point about Steve Baker too, if the brexit spartans aren't in Team Pig Dog then who is? The payroll vote who they have prodded to come out and declare in favour but will be under no pressure when they actually vote? That's not a particularly reliable electorate.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,250
    This is all very interesting and all but absolutely nothing is going to happen tonight and the whole shitshow will limp on until the next election.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,782

    These Tory pricks are going to vote to keep him then in a month when they are 15 to 20 points behind will be all butt hurt and wondering why.
    Its not about YOU forgiving and moving on you myopic fuckers

    Nah he’s toast. Personally I think he’ll lose the vote, but even if he doesn’t, ignore this “one vote is enough” stuff, he’ll have to go within the month if they breach 140 (assuming he wins the vote)

    If it’s 100-140 he’ll be out in 6 months to a year if not sooner.

    Below 100 probably safe but unlikely to fight the GE.

    It’s all just a matter of timing now.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    Exc: New polling by Survation for @38degrees puts Labour 23 per cent up in Wakefield and on course to win more than half the vote in this month's by-election.

    Projection:
    LAB 56%
    CON 33%
    IND 3%
    REFUK 3%
    LIB DEM 2%
    GREENS 2%
    YORKSHIRE PARTY 1%
    BRITAIN FIRST 1%

    THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER
This discussion has been closed.