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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Cookie said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
    Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.

    And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
    The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
    Well indeed. As I say I am not defending her but there is a logic to what she says. You do not defend and enhance free speech by making rules about what can and cannot be said. Which is very much the agenda being followed at the moment in many institutions.

    I avoid this time using the word 'woke'. I only used it in my last reply because it was the term that had been used in the original posting. I think it is a much abused and pointless term which adds nothing of meaning to an otherwise serious debate.
    But it is this conservative government that is passing laws and setting regulations banning the teaching of certain topics in schools.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Likewise. Although I have now managed to pour a generous double gin as I don't want @Leon to be drinking alone.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Where's my Bond Street???

    (only kidding!)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    DougSeal said:

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
    It worked for May, not against her, that there was a hung parliament with Corbyn in the wings - any new leader will inherit a solid Tory majority.

    Also, I'm also starting to think the lack of a clear inheritor for the leadership is working against Boris not for him now: every wing of the party can project their own potential victory onto the post Boris blank slate.
    This is the Tory party's Brexit moment, people may disagree on what comes after but a majority agree that the answer isn't Boris.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Likewise. Although I have now managed to pour a generous double gin as I don't want @Leon to be drinking alone.
    Am I the only one keeping the British economy going?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    Do coma patients often engage in frenetic, pointless activity ?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    I think Johnson is still in very deep trouble tonight, though he does benefit from having no clear successor. Mind you there is a growing aroma of Jim Hacker on the Tory front bench. I´m thinking Ben Wallace, simply becuase he is an actual Conservative and will try to pose as a grown up in the room after the naughty playtime of Johnson. The Tories may, this time, actually choose a Tory to lead them. The bet would be that Starmer can not out conservative an actual Conservative.

    Admittedly the economy is going to be sick as a dog for most of the next several years and it will not be very much fun launching a level of austerity that will lead to rioting on the streets, but the truth is that Britain has made an almighty screw up over the past decade or so and it will take at least another decade to fix.

    Thank you and Good Night BoJo. The Parliamentary Conservatives are, after all, a bunch of ruthless b&%t@ds and two and a half years in the circus is clearly enough. The booing at St. Pauls was just the final straw.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Do we know what time the result is expected to be announced?

    845ish, they said.
    Wouldn’t that be overstuffing the ballot ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    People in glass houses....
    Bit harsh on the legendary rogerdamus.

    He reminds me of a surgical colleague: often wrong but never in doubt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Hammond resigns as PPS to vote against the clown
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    I really think that Boris could lose tonight. I've only bet £50 though.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    IanB2 said:

    Hammond resigns as PPS to vote against the clown

    Goog grief - a principled Tory, whatever next? Well done him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    Vote against all legislation.

    Anyway, you're projecting numbers that don't exist.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited June 2022
    Lamont resigns as PPS to FS in order to vote no confidebce
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through

    The Anti-May mob had Brexit, the most significant policy of a generation, to vote against and paralyse the government. Do the anti-Boris rebels have anything similar to rally around?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,679

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Likewise. Although I have now managed to pour a generous double gin as I don't want @Leon to be drinking alone.
    Am I the only one keeping the British economy going?
    Yes

    Next

    *slurps Saperavi wine*
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    I could be wrong but it seems to me like there are a disproportionate number of SW England Tory MPs going public in their opposition to Johnson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    If there is any justice in this world, then Johnson's comment that "he would do it all again" will be the final nail in the coffin tonight.

    Boris really is a moron, even if it was meant as a joke.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 2022
    I may not be on here later because whilst 90% of posters are sensible and reasoned, I find Leon's breathless knee-jerkiness can skew my judgement of what it really all means.

    I'm expecting him to win but not hugely convincingly. Then All the cabinet will come out with the usual guff. It will need 48 hours for the dust to settle and for us to get sensible evaluations.

    The by-elections will then deliver a telling verdict.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?

    I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
    Alternatively - he scrapes home this time around.

    Gathers his strength and goes back to the country in September or October before the energy bill rises bite.

    And would probably squeak through that as well.

    Quite a few of his rivals will lose their seats - Raab, Baker in High Wycombe etc - and the remaining Conservatives will be undeniably Team Boris.

    It's likely to be quite self-destructive for the Conservative party - and would inextricably link Red Wall Conservativism with Johnsonism. Like Peronism it is so nebulous you could probably have competing brands. But Boris has never worried too much about cleaning up after his parties...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Likewise. Although I have now managed to pour a generous double gin as I don't want @Leon to be drinking alone.
    Am I the only one keeping the British economy going?
    No. Rottenborough is doing his bit to support the distillery industry.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    At least he didn't go to the dentist.
    Sorry, I don't get it?
    John Major was famously under the radar and avoiding accusations of betrayal at the time of Thatcher's downfall by undergoing dental treatment.
    Ah, thank you!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Doro1

    Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through

    No Tory MP will vote against the government, that’s political suicide. You’d be better off crossing the floor.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800


    I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.

    Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.

    I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.

    Your recollection of 1990 is somewhat flawed.

    The sacking of Howe after the dismissal of Lawson the year before was for many the final evidence of her increasingly dictatorial style of Government. Howe then produced one of the great Commons speeches in his resignation statement which basically challenged Heseltine (who had been sitting in the wings ever since Westland) to put up or finally shut up.

    Heseltine had a well-prepared campaign team led by Michael Mates while Thatcher was seemingly ill-prepared - her PPS, Morrison, was worse than useless. Her team still thought as the votes were being cast she's get 250 or more while Mates had the numbers almost correct.

    Even so, Thatcher "won" the ballot 204-152 with 16 abstentions but under the obscure rules of the time, she just failed to win outright. Once those on the payroll had performed their loyalty, they were free to do what they liked and the paucity of her support became apparent.

    This is very different - were Johnson facing a direct challenge, that would be one thing. This is a vote of Confidence - it's literally all about him.

    As often these days, you give the Prime Minister and his team far too much credit. The likelihood of a vote this week was set by William Hague before the Jubilee Bank Holiday.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Sam Coates on Sky

    "Sam also says he has been hearing that some MPs on the government payroll have confided privately that they will vote against the prime minister."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    Many on here congratulated me on saying for some time that today would see a vonc

    I was going to make a more acidic comment but I really do not want to embarrass you
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    They do it by convincing some of the 230 to swap sides. They do that by pointing at (a) by-election results, polling etc. (if you think polling is bad now, wait until the party looks divided while still failing to do anything about the cost of living), (b) more Partygate stuff (Privileges Committee investigation, more leaked photos), and/or (c) general draining of any authority from a lame duck PM. The more swap sides, the weaker Johnson's position. He'll struggle to win votes in the Commons; he'll struggle to fill Government posts. At some point, Johnson gives in or you've got a majority of MPs against him and then they can re-write the rules any way they want.

    My question in return... if only 120 vote against him, which is more likely? Some of the 230 turning against him, or some of the 120 deciding they like him again?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    Ta. Not exactly full thoated!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Youtube cricket really is still going strong i see...30k watching Yorkshire vs Notts in T20.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    Do coma patients often engage in frenetic, pointless activity ?
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2729975/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    mwadams said:

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
    Lol! Patel has to be supporting Johnson; with any new PM she's out on her arse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?

    I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
    We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.

    To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    mwadams said:

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
    Lol! Patel has to be supporting Johnson; with any new PM she's out on her arse.
    Unless it is her, obvs. Then she's sitting Priti, one might say.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570

    mwadams said:

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
    Lol! Patel has to be supporting Johnson; with any new PM she's out on her arse.
    Does she not perhaps listen to the little voice in her head that says "It could by you, PP!"?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited June 2022
    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    mwadams said:

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
    Lol! Patel has to be supporting Johnson; with any new PM she's out on her arse.
    No, she's a survivor. I could easily see any new PM keep her in place in order to keep the hang 'em n flog 'em right wingers on side.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Jonathan said:

    Doro1

    Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through

    No Tory MP will vote against the government, that’s political suicide. You’d be better off crossing the floor.
    MPs do rebel (or abstain) on individual occasions with some frequency. It's not a career ending move.

    Of course, that's a minor act of rebellion versus blocking all legislation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Uh oh.

    England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.

    Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nations-league-fears-of-crowd-trouble-as-england-fans-buy-tickets-in-germany-section-zmm8p0jqk

    Don't panic. The Germans are excellent at organising football matches (and most other things for that matter) Nothing whatever to worry about.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Final Tally:

    Confidence: 153
    No Confidence: 51
    Will Not Say: 12

    No Statement: 143


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    moonshine said:

    I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.

    As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.

    So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185?s=20&t=jmzk73SIOEGjdEHKUOp11A

    ""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
    She won't actually be voting for him. But he has her full support should he need anything (apart from a vote) during the actual vote.
    Lol! Patel has to be supporting Johnson; with any new PM she's out on her arse.
    Does she not perhaps listen to the little voice in her head that says "It could by you, PP!"?
    They all have that voice. Every one of them.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?

    In 2018, 79% of those who did not issue a statement either way voted no confidence in Theresa May.

    That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.

    From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    So 135 looks like the magic number. You heard it here first
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Final Tally:

    Confidence: 153
    No Confidence: 51
    Will Not Say: 12

    No Statement: 143


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360

    Gosh it could be close. 20-30 votes either side?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Heathener said:

    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?

    In 2018, 79% of those who did not issue a statement either way voted no confidence in Theresa May.

    That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.

    From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
    Oh, it would be *so* good to see him win 52-48% ...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.

    It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate

    That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.

    I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.

    Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.

    I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.
    You always think that.

    Soft spot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Truss's PPS resigns.

    Interesting. Very, very interesting.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    But also how many of those 153 are lying? If you're on the payroll you might just fib about supporting him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited June 2022
    Roger said:

    So 135 looks like the magic number. You heard it here first

    No - I posted Sam Coates quoted 133 @ 6.49pm

    'Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    Heathener said:

    Sam Coates on Sky

    "Sam also says he has been hearing that some MPs on the government payroll have confided privately that they will vote against the prime minister."

    Well, we have had a couple of resignations already to do so. That's already a net switch of 4 in the numbers the Boris supporters would have expected....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362

    Final Tally:

    Confidence: 153
    No Confidence: 51
    Will Not Say: 12

    No Statement: 143


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360

    102 the difference, 155 votes in play.....

    Boris will lose this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited June 2022

    Final Tally:

    Confidence: 153
    No Confidence: 51
    Will Not Say: 12

    No Statement: 143


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360

    17% of the undeclared or stubborn needed then.

    1/4 of those who declared were rebels, 3/4 loyalists. A reversed ratio would see Boris get to 190-192. Not very strong.

    Yes, that's total guesswork.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Heathener said:

    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?

    In 2018, 79% of those who did not issue a statement either way voted no confidence in Theresa May.

    That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.

    From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
    79% of the non-declared from the Britain Elects numbers would take the no confidence vote to 173 - surely not even “one vote is enough” JRM thinks he could survive that?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Roger said:

    Uh oh.

    England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.

    Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nations-league-fears-of-crowd-trouble-as-england-fans-buy-tickets-in-germany-section-zmm8p0jqk

    Don't panic. The Germans are excellent at organising football matches (and most other things for that matter) Nothing whatever to worry about.
    Very good at appeasing Putin as well
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,173
    Roger said:

    So 135 looks like the magic number. You heard it here first

    I predicted this morning that at least 132 would vote against Johnson.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    Do coma patients often engage in frenetic, pointless activity ?
    Have you never seen (the opening scenes of) Kill Bill: Volume 1?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    rcs1000 said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?

    I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
    We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.

    To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
    Yes. I agree. 120 feels like the fulcrum point. Below 120 votes against him, I think it's more likely than not he leads the Tories into the next GE. Above 120 votes against him then more likely than not he is eventually forced out.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    I have absolutely no idea how this will go. My hunch is Boris wins, although not particularly convincingly.

    Also, while my political betting is generally profitable, I’ve never made any money on Tory leadership votes. Keeping my money in my wallet this time.

    Roll on 9pm!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Youtube cricket really is still going strong i see...30k watching Yorkshire vs Notts in T20.

    Best bit is the live streams of local sides, such as our first XI.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Heathener said:

    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?

    In 2018, 79% of those who did not issue a statement either way voted no confidence in Theresa May.

    That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.

    From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
    Based on the Electoral maps list of declarations a 79% break of undeclareds for no confidence would lead to Johnson surviving by 186 to 173. Which would mean he doesn't survive long imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Apparently he wrote two ballot papers…

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533873766106898432
    Boris Johnson has just arrived at Committee Room 10 in Parliament to vote on whether he has confidence in himself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    David Mundell, the former Secretary of State for Scotland, has voted against Boris Johnson in the confidence vote.

    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1533874148132405248
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    I could be wrong but it seems to me like there are a disproportionate number of SW England Tory MPs going public in their opposition to Johnson.

    Would make sense if true. They must be under serious threat from a Lib Dem revival and anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Heathener said:

    But also how many of those 153 are lying? If you're on the payroll you might just fib about supporting him.

    And as for the 51 clearly that is low as they exceeded the required letters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929

    Truss's PPS resigns.

    Interesting. Very, very interesting.

    To be fair, if I'd been Truss's PPS, I would have already resigned.

    Or swallowed hemlock.

    Not sure which, but definitely one of the two.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently he wrote two ballot papers…

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533873766106898432
    Boris Johnson has just arrived at Committee Room 10 in Parliament to vote on whether he has confidence in himself.

    One vote is enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    After a difficult couple of years and listening to the views of my constituents, I voted tonight for a fresh start and new leadership for our country.
    https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/1533873516809969665
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Boris is going nowhere.

    Too many spineless Tory MPs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    Bring it on!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
    The police have started to take the view that election purdah applies to them, so no Beergate announcement during an election...?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Same time next year?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    I still expect there will be MPs who this morning would have voted confidence but in the privacy of the ballot will finally realise "Fuck it, he's toast....." and vote no confidence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Boris is going nowhere.

    Too many spineless Tory MPs.

    Some nice examples of Tory MPs here. I particularly like the one getting its free ride on a hermit crab

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aUA8BvylZg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    Language, Theresa......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited June 2022

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
    The police have started to take the view that election purdah applies to them, so no Beergate announcement during an election...?
    Ah, of course, even Durham not just those southern types in the Met. Well, he'll just say, look at SKS, he's bound to be kicked out, Ms Sturgeon or Mr Corbyn will replace him ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited June 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?

    I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
    We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.

    To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
    He's only got 153.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited June 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    Yes. The mood music appears to have shifted back to a narrow win for Boris, but I could easily see it going the other way.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    Heathener said:

    Can anyone recollect the level of declared support TM got before her VoNC?

    In 2018, 79% of those who did not issue a statement either way voted no confidence in Theresa May.

    That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.

    From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
    Based on the Electoral maps list of declarations a 79% break of undeclareds for no confidence would lead to Johnson surviving by 186 to 173. Which would mean he doesn't survive long imo.
    Would be out by the end of the week on that.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    I think if Boris called an election to save his skin then the current polls don’t remotely reflect the dry humping the Tories would take. So many Tory voters would stay home at best or vote anyone else if they were sent to the polls on this basis.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    Bring it on!
    "Who governs Britain?"



  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    Maybe he fancies being PPS to the PM again (whichever one).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    It is, and what is it based on?

    Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?

    What?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,576
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently he wrote two ballot papers…

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533873766106898432
    Boris Johnson has just arrived at Committee Room 10 in Parliament to vote on whether he has confidence in himself.

    Not a sign of great confidence.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,322
    edited June 2022

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    It is, and what is it based on?

    Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?

    What?
    Theresa May signalling via interpretive dance?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    Given the incentive for Scottish Conservatives to put some distance between them and the PM, I think people could be forgiven to thinking he is likely to be a supporter based on that comment, even if he really was doing it on principle.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    Has everyone forgotten, this is supposedly the most sophisticated electorate on the planet we are dealing with here?

    What you have heard as public declarations is all LIES!
This discussion has been closed.