A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
How interesting! You imply that you are a former party leader? The premise is that the vote is restricted to those. Which of this list do we think is most likely to be masquerading as Leon?
IDS - Leon is his misanthropic "Tom Jones" alter ego.
'Tell that to Theresa' we hoped Chris Mason would ask.
(He's not sharp like Laura K. How we miss her)
Victoria Derbyshire already did this morning and he said he realised he was wrong when he said that ability Theresa May.
JRM. Not even slightly embarrassed by his own blatant rank hypocrisy. You don't see "fostering a secure sense of class superiority" on the curriculum at our elite public schools but it's there alright.
Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?
If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .
Maybe.
Fatally wounded but survives today.
Poasibly.
The herding is around 130-150 votes against him, with 170 at the upper limits.
However, it's worth bearing in mind that over 200 Tory MPs have failed to publicly back him and not everyone who's declared for him will be telling the truth.
I now think he's got a 65:35 chance of mathematically surviving and it's possible (just possible) we're in for a shock tonight.
If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.
Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
It worked for May, not against her, that there was a hung parliament with Corbyn in the wings - any new leader will inherit a solid Tory majority.
Also, I'm also starting to think the lack of a clear inheritor for the leadership is working against Boris not for him now: every wing of the party can project their own potential victory onto the post Boris blank slate.
Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.
And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
Well indeed. As I say I am not defending her but there is a logic to what she says. You do not defend and enhance free speech by making rules about what can and cannot be said. Which is very much the agenda being followed at the moment in many institutions.
I avoid this time using the word 'woke'. I only used it in my last reply because it was the term that had been used in the original posting. I think it is a much abused and pointless term which adds nothing of meaning to an otherwise serious debate.
But it is this conservative government that is passing laws and setting regulations banning the teaching of certain topics in schools.
If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.
Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
It worked for May, not against her, that there was a hung parliament with Corbyn in the wings - any new leader will inherit a solid Tory majority.
Also, I'm also starting to think the lack of a clear inheritor for the leadership is working against Boris not for him now: every wing of the party can project their own potential victory onto the post Boris blank slate.
This is the Tory party's Brexit moment, people may disagree on what comes after but a majority agree that the answer isn't Boris.
I think Johnson is still in very deep trouble tonight, though he does benefit from having no clear successor. Mind you there is a growing aroma of Jim Hacker on the Tory front bench. I´m thinking Ben Wallace, simply becuase he is an actual Conservative and will try to pose as a grown up in the room after the naughty playtime of Johnson. The Tories may, this time, actually choose a Tory to lead them. The bet would be that Starmer can not out conservative an actual Conservative.
Admittedly the economy is going to be sick as a dog for most of the next several years and it will not be very much fun launching a level of austerity that will lead to rioting on the streets, but the truth is that Britain has made an almighty screw up over the past decade or so and it will take at least another decade to fix.
Thank you and Good Night BoJo. The Parliamentary Conservatives are, after all, a bunch of ruthless b&%t@ds and two and a half years in the circus is clearly enough. The booing at St. Pauls was just the final straw.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
People in glass houses....
Bit harsh on the legendary rogerdamus.
He reminds me of a surgical colleague: often wrong but never in doubt.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
Vote against all legislation.
Anyway, you're projecting numbers that don't exist.
Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through
The Anti-May mob had Brexit, the most significant policy of a generation, to vote against and paralyse the government. Do the anti-Boris rebels have anything similar to rally around?
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I may not be on here later because whilst 90% of posters are sensible and reasoned, I find Leon's breathless knee-jerkiness can skew my judgement of what it really all means.
I'm expecting him to win but not hugely convincingly. Then All the cabinet will come out with the usual guff. It will need 48 hours for the dust to settle and for us to get sensible evaluations.
The by-elections will then deliver a telling verdict.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
Alternatively - he scrapes home this time around.
Gathers his strength and goes back to the country in September or October before the energy bill rises bite.
And would probably squeak through that as well.
Quite a few of his rivals will lose their seats - Raab, Baker in High Wycombe etc - and the remaining Conservatives will be undeniably Team Boris.
It's likely to be quite self-destructive for the Conservative party - and would inextricably link Red Wall Conservativism with Johnsonism. Like Peronism it is so nebulous you could probably have competing brands. But Boris has never worried too much about cleaning up after his parties...
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through
No Tory MP will vote against the government, that’s political suicide. You’d be better off crossing the floor.
I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.
Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.
I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.
Your recollection of 1990 is somewhat flawed.
The sacking of Howe after the dismissal of Lawson the year before was for many the final evidence of her increasingly dictatorial style of Government. Howe then produced one of the great Commons speeches in his resignation statement which basically challenged Heseltine (who had been sitting in the wings ever since Westland) to put up or finally shut up.
Heseltine had a well-prepared campaign team led by Michael Mates while Thatcher was seemingly ill-prepared - her PPS, Morrison, was worse than useless. Her team still thought as the votes were being cast she's get 250 or more while Mates had the numbers almost correct.
Even so, Thatcher "won" the ballot 204-152 with 16 abstentions but under the obscure rules of the time, she just failed to win outright. Once those on the payroll had performed their loyalty, they were free to do what they liked and the paucity of her support became apparent.
This is very different - were Johnson facing a direct challenge, that would be one thing. This is a vote of Confidence - it's literally all about him.
As often these days, you give the Prime Minister and his team far too much credit. The likelihood of a vote this week was set by William Hague before the Jubilee Bank Holiday.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
Many on here congratulated me on saying for some time that today would see a vonc
I was going to make a more acidic comment but I really do not want to embarrass you
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
They do it by convincing some of the 230 to swap sides. They do that by pointing at (a) by-election results, polling etc. (if you think polling is bad now, wait until the party looks divided while still failing to do anything about the cost of living), (b) more Partygate stuff (Privileges Committee investigation, more leaked photos), and/or (c) general draining of any authority from a lame duck PM. The more swap sides, the weaker Johnson's position. He'll struggle to win votes in the Commons; he'll struggle to fill Government posts. At some point, Johnson gives in or you've got a majority of MPs against him and then they can re-write the rules any way they want.
My question in return... if only 120 vote against him, which is more likely? Some of the 230 turning against him, or some of the 120 deciding they like him again?
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.
To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through
No Tory MP will vote against the government, that’s political suicide. You’d be better off crossing the floor.
MPs do rebel (or abstain) on individual occasions with some frequency. It's not a career ending move.
Of course, that's a minor act of rebellion versus blocking all legislation.
England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.
Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.
I’ve been busy a few hours. Still nothing from Priti is that right? She’s out by the weekend then I guess.
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate
That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.
I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.
Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.
I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.
So 135 looks like the magic number. You heard it here first
No - I posted Sam Coates quoted 133 @ 6.49pm
'Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through'
"Sam also says he has been hearing that some MPs on the government payroll have confided privately that they will vote against the prime minister."
Well, we have had a couple of resignations already to do so. That's already a net switch of 4 in the numbers the Boris supporters would have expected....
79% of the non-declared from the Britain Elects numbers would take the no confidence vote to 173 - surely not even “one vote is enough” JRM thinks he could survive that?
England fans are trying to sit among their German counterparts in Munich on Tuesday night by buying tickets directly from the website of the country’s football federation, sparking serious concerns of crowd trouble.
Fans are purchasing seats simply by registering as Germany supporters on their federation’s official ticket portal, with many using their hotel address to complete the process. The Times bought a ticket among German fans on Monday morning for €45 (about £40), using a German hotel address with a UK bank card and email address. The ticket will be returned to the German federation (DFB) for resale, with the €45 offered to a charity of its choice.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.
To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
Yes. I agree. 120 feels like the fulcrum point. Below 120 votes against him, I think it's more likely than not he leads the Tories into the next GE. Above 120 votes against him then more likely than not he is eventually forced out.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
Based on the Electoral maps list of declarations a 79% break of undeclareds for no confidence would lead to Johnson surviving by 186 to 173. Which would mean he doesn't survive long imo.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
The police have started to take the view that election purdah applies to them, so no Beergate announcement during an election...?
I still expect there will be MPs who this morning would have voted confidence but in the privacy of the ballot will finally realise "Fuck it, he's toast....." and vote no confidence.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
MAkes sense if he is relying on Beergate to decapitate Labour.
The police have started to take the view that election purdah applies to them, so no Beergate announcement during an election...?
Ah, of course, even Durham not just those southern types in the Met. Well, he'll just say, look at SKS, he's bound to be kicked out, Ms Sturgeon or Mr Corbyn will replace him ...
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
We do need to remember abstentions and spoilt ballot papers too.
To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Based on the Electoral maps list of declarations a 79% break of undeclareds for no confidence would lead to Johnson surviving by 186 to 173. Which would mean he doesn't survive long imo.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
I think if Boris called an election to save his skin then the current polls don’t remotely reflect the dry humping the Tories would take. So many Tory voters would stay home at best or vote anyone else if they were sent to the polls on this basis.
Comments
I think each side will get 150. It’s that 60 or so votes in the middle that will be crucial.
Honestly though I don’t think it matters. No matter the spinning if over 150 MPs want him out he’s not going to last much longer.
Also, I'm also starting to think the lack of a clear inheritor for the leadership is working against Boris not for him now: every wing of the party can project their own potential victory onto the post Boris blank slate.
(only kidding!)
Admittedly the economy is going to be sick as a dog for most of the next several years and it will not be very much fun launching a level of austerity that will lead to rioting on the streets, but the truth is that Britain has made an almighty screw up over the past decade or so and it will take at least another decade to fix.
Thank you and Good Night BoJo. The Parliamentary Conservatives are, after all, a bunch of ruthless b&%t@ds and two and a half years in the circus is clearly enough. The booing at St. Pauls was just the final straw.
He reminds me of a surgical colleague: often wrong but never in doubt.
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
Anyway, you're projecting numbers that don't exist.
Next
*slurps Saperavi wine*
As for declarations for being below 50%… I guess some MPs genuinely wanted to hear him out. And plenty of others wanted time to gossip in person and see what way the wind is blowing before commuting. Others just don’t want to show their hand.
So I have to assume if 145 have spoken in his favour, even after taking out Liz Truss and others, he’ll squeak it.
I'm expecting him to win but not hugely convincingly. Then All the cabinet will come out with the usual guff. It will need 48 hours for the dust to settle and for us to get sensible evaluations.
The by-elections will then deliver a telling verdict.
Gathers his strength and goes back to the country in September or October before the energy bill rises bite.
And would probably squeak through that as well.
Quite a few of his rivals will lose their seats - Raab, Baker in High Wycombe etc - and the remaining Conservatives will be undeniably Team Boris.
It's likely to be quite self-destructive for the Conservative party - and would inextricably link Red Wall Conservativism with Johnsonism. Like Peronism it is so nebulous you could probably have competing brands. But Boris has never worried too much about cleaning up after his parties...
""The Home Secretary looks forward to supporting the Prime Minster in the vote this evening," says her spokesman"
The sacking of Howe after the dismissal of Lawson the year before was for many the final evidence of her increasingly dictatorial style of Government. Howe then produced one of the great Commons speeches in his resignation statement which basically challenged Heseltine (who had been sitting in the wings ever since Westland) to put up or finally shut up.
Heseltine had a well-prepared campaign team led by Michael Mates while Thatcher was seemingly ill-prepared - her PPS, Morrison, was worse than useless. Her team still thought as the votes were being cast she's get 250 or more while Mates had the numbers almost correct.
Even so, Thatcher "won" the ballot 204-152 with 16 abstentions but under the obscure rules of the time, she just failed to win outright. Once those on the payroll had performed their loyalty, they were free to do what they liked and the paucity of her support became apparent.
This is very different - were Johnson facing a direct challenge, that would be one thing. This is a vote of Confidence - it's literally all about him.
As often these days, you give the Prime Minister and his team far too much credit. The likelihood of a vote this week was set by William Hague before the Jubilee Bank Holiday.
"Sam also says he has been hearing that some MPs on the government payroll have confided privately that they will vote against the prime minister."
I was going to make a more acidic comment but I really do not want to embarrass you
My question in return... if only 120 vote against him, which is more likely? Some of the 230 turning against him, or some of the 120 deciding they like him again?
To my mind, the most important number is the number of MPs who proactively support the PM - and I think that number needs to be at least 240 - any less and he's dangerously close to only 60% of the parliamentary party supporting him.
Of course, that's a minor act of rebellion versus blocking all legislation.
Confidence: 153
No Confidence: 51
Will Not Say: 12
No Statement: 143
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360
That number would need to rise to 85% for Boris Johnson to lose the confidence of his party.
From Sky: https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-no-confidence-vote-live-vote-at-6pm-today-12593360
Soft spot.
Interesting. Very, very interesting.
'Sam Coates of Sky has just said that 133 votes against would be worse than Theresa May and to remember it only takes 40 hard core opponents to prevent all legislation going through'
Boris will lose this.
1/4 of those who declared were rebels, 3/4 loyalists. A reversed ratio would see Boris get to 190-192. Not very strong.
Yes, that's total guesswork.
Also, while my political betting is generally profitable, I’ve never made any money on Tory leadership votes. Keeping my money in my wallet this time.
Roll on 9pm!
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533873766106898432
Boris Johnson has just arrived at Committee Room 10 in Parliament to vote on whether he has confidence in himself.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1533874148132405248
Shirley that is too long now?
Or swallowed hemlock.
Not sure which, but definitely one of the two.
https://twitter.com/DavidMundellDCT/status/1533873516809969665
Too many spineless Tory MPs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aUA8BvylZg
“I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
“It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.
Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19