"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
Given the incentive for Scottish Conservatives to put some distance between them and the PM, I think people could be forgiven to thinking he is likely to be a supporter based on that comment, even if he really was doing it on principle.
It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.
Yes. The mood music appears to have shifted back to a narrow win for Boris, but I could easily see it going the other way.
I have thought all day he is going to lose, and I still think so. Enough Tories will realise that Boris just winning is the worst of all possible worlds.
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
"If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”." https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578
So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
The "Boris is dead, but he hasn't realised it yet" window looks pretty big (180 for to at least 240 for?) . But there isn't really anyone to tell him the prognosis, and Boris won't listen anyway. How Wagnerian will BoJo's final act be?
Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?
What?
It’s based on some political correspondents who seem to be a bit more bullish about the PMs chances than some others, IMHO, especially the BBC.
Thing is I’m not sure they’ll want to budge from that narrative in case they’re horribly wrong (it’s easier to say “Boris out in SHOCK VOTE” than it is to say “Boris survives when we said he wouldn’t”).
Given the incentive for Scottish Conservatives to put some distance between them and the PM, I think people could be forgiven to thinking he is likely to be a supporter based on that comment, even if he really was doing it on principle.
TBF his branch office manager has publicly plumped for Mr J. So this is the best Mr Bowie can do without upsetting (a) the new PM (b) his existing BOM (c) almost all his constituents.
Edit: I am not keeping up. BOM has plumped against Mr J. Please ignore ...
Yes. The mood music appears to have shifted back to a narrow win for Boris, but I could easily see it going the other way.
As a #BorisOut person I can't lose tonight. If he wins handsomely that's great for smashing the party later. If he squeaks it he's damaged beyond repair. And if he loses...
I'm sticking with my earlier "I think he is going to lose this" position. The mood music is very very different to 2018, the declaration tallies even more so, with a growing number of surprises being added to the no column.
It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.
I predicted earlier today that the only Scottish MP to definitely vote for Johnson would probably be David Duguid, MP for Banff and Buchan. Maybe I got the identity wrong but the number right if it was Alistair Jack instead.
Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?
What?
Just looking at Betfair, we have Boris 1.12 to win the confidence vote, and 9 to lose, but also on Betfair we have 1.28 Boris not to have announced his resignation by the end of this month, and 4.4 for him to have folded. That is a great difference; can it all be explained by the "too small margin" theory? The Privileges Committee will surely take more than three weeks to report. So yes, the odds can be wrong.
It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.
It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.
Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?
What?
Just looking at Betfair, we have Boris 1.12 to win the confidence vote, and 9 to lose, but also on Betfair we have 1.28 Boris not to have announced his resignation by the end of this month, and 4.4 for him to have folded. That is a great difference; can it all be explained by the "too small margin" theory? The Privileges Committee will surely take more than three weeks to report. So yes, the odds can be wrong.
I’d forgotten about the committee report. If it’s a narrow win, there’s no chance the Tory members row in behind him.
I predicted earlier today that the only Scottish MP to definitely vote for Johnson would probably be David Duguid, MP for Banff and Buchan. Maybe I got the identity wrong but the number right if it was Alistair Jack instead.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
...added to which, he'd be trying to turn it around during a CoL crisis.
No one is turning this around within 2 years. Starmer will be happy if Johnson limps on to a GE in 2024 or 2025, by which time the economy may well be on the mend again but not in time to save the Tories.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
As has been pointed out calling a snap election would be suicidal. The voters really don't like unnecessary elections - see 2017.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Of the five confidence votes:
Maggie won one, stayed on Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days. Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
As has been pointed out calling a snap election would be suicidal. The voters really don't like unnecessary elections - see 2017.
But if he's essentially on his way to being bounced out anyway, again...what else is he going to do?
I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.
50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
In the interests of consistency I would be obliged to say he is entitled to go on in those circumstances, but the bullishness by which he does so will decide how much of a rough ride those 43% continue to give him.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
Never. I think it's a certainty that Boris would lose his own seat. Labour would probably get a majority. PB would spontaneously combust.
Does anyone know when the exit poll will be released?
Do we get one? MPs don't know. Can't see the '22 tellers gobbing off about how the count is going. Would there be time for "word has it" leaks before Mrs Brady reads the numbers?
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Of the five confidence votes:
Maggie won one, stayed on Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days. Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Of the five confidence votes:
Maggie won one, stayed on Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days. Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
Of course it isn't. It shows a deeply divided ungovernable party that can't be relied on when the going gets tough. As Tory leader after Tory leader has found for the last 20 years.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
Never. I think it's a certainty that Boris would lose his own seat. Labour would probably get a majority. PB would spontaneously combust.
I'm so old I remember the old lags from Tory party saying we are looking at a Jan 2025 mid-winter election and debates about leafleting in the snow.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.
52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
I could be wrong but it seems to me like there are a disproportionate number of SW England Tory MPs going public in their opposition to Johnson.
Would make sense if true. They must be under serious threat from a Lib Dem revival and anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election.
I suspect all the talk of levelling up in the Red Wall grates in a lot of the SW with it's own issues.
I don't hear that much from my Tory friends here. What I hear over and over is: 'disgraceful behaviour', 'no integrity', 'lazy', 'lying', 'incompetent'... Partygate has played really big here, including amongst CP members.
The other thing that's beginning to hit home is that Brexit farming support is worse than when we were in the EU.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
Though I thank you for the replies, no one has answered my question. 150+ plus against him is a clear bad result for Boris - yet he is still there! How is he out if you can’t vote him out?
To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.
I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon if it’s nearer 150 against?
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Of the five confidence votes:
Maggie won one, stayed on Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days. Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.
But today is at least the beginning of the end.
Every day is the beginning of the end. And not just for BJ.
I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.
50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
But a confidence vote is not like a vote on what to do. It's not viable to function if you've lost the confidence of, say, 45% of your MPs.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.
52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
Lets assume he wins by a small amount. The idea that "the issue is settled, lets move on" takes hold is absurd.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
Though I thank you for the replies, no one has answered my question. 150+ plus against him is a clear bad result for Boris - yet he is still there! How is he out if you can’t vote him out?
To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.
I think anything under 120 he will fight the election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon?
Interesting to peruse list of Tory MPs publicly backing PM. This is what one of them told me in hushed tones a few months ago of the government whips: “They haven’t got a xxxxing clue what is going on. We have completely shut down. We are not telling them what we think….
…. They have spies everywhere. So we are all just saying: of course we support you. They do not know what is going to happen.”
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win.
Failing to have the confidence of 1/3rd of your own MPs would hardly constitute "a clear win"
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
Of the five confidence votes:
Maggie won one, stayed on Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days. Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.
But today is at least the beginning of the end.
Simply having a VONC is pretty terminal is my conclusion.
My own personal preference is for Johnson to lead his party into a catastrophic early election, losing by a landslide including his own seat. My book however is most green on him losing heavily tonight and Morduant becoming next PM.
Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet. It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.
52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
Yes and no. No PM can hope to run a successful government with more than 100 of his own MPs not backing him. He will be paralysed. Of course, given some of the recent initiatives like Rwanda, that might not be the worst thing that could happen.
There's absolutely no chance of Boris calling an election, he'd lose his own seat.
Unless he has stitched up a rat run to a safe seat
A chicken run would be even more humiliating than losing his seat, and there's no guarantee he wins that either. The constituents may not take kindly to having Boris foisted on them.
Comments
Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?
What?
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
What you have heard as public declarations is all LIES!
https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1533875195148218370
"Not you!"
Thing is I’m not sure they’ll want to budge from that narrative in case they’re horribly wrong (it’s easier to say “Boris out in SHOCK VOTE” than it is to say “Boris survives when we said he wouldn’t”).
Edit: I am not keeping up. BOM has plumped against Mr J. Please ignore ...
I'm sticking with my earlier "I think he is going to lose this" position. The mood music is very very different to 2018, the declaration tallies even more so, with a growing number of surprises being added to the no column.
If I'm wrong, so what. If I'm right...
I've got a holiday booked for middle/late July.
Edit - oh, and maybe Duguid
Its a shame people don't stand by that.
Incidentally, good to see you back, @oxfordsimon.
https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1533878793680609280
It would be incredible if he loses by less than 5 votes the amount of bitching would just be glorious.
Far better to do that at 9.15pm than 8.45pm
Amazing times!
No one is turning this around within 2 years. Starmer will be happy if Johnson limps on to a GE in 2024 or 2025, by which time the economy may well be on the mend again but not in time to save the Tories.
Maggie won one, stayed on
Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
May won, gone in months.
Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
The 8/1 just doesn't make any sense at all, he's probably favourite to stay in but 2/1 would be fair.
It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.
https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353
Hey ho, probably I'm wrong.
50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
But today is at least the beginning of the end.
52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
The other thing that's beginning to hit home is that Brexit farming support is worse than when we were in the EU.
LDs are likely to do well in the SW next GE.
To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.
I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon if it’s nearer 150 against?
…. They have spies everywhere. So we are all just saying: of course we support you. They do not know what is going to happen.”
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533882220087234562
My own personal preference is for Johnson to lead his party into a catastrophic early election, losing by a landslide including his own seat. My book however is most green on him losing heavily tonight and Morduant becoming next PM.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533882700347629568?s=21&t=AoZlv-sR-uEbnGzwJIwV6A