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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    Yes. The mood music appears to have shifted back to a narrow win for Boris, but I could easily see it going the other way.
    I have thought all day he is going to lose, and I still think so. Enough Tories will realise that Boris just winning is the worst of all possible worlds.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    Bring it on!
    "Who governs Britain?"
    "Not you Boris!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    Yep. I'm in on that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    "If the result is narrow, I suspect the PM’s might call a general election. A senior MP told me the Cabinet would stop him, but then added: “Actually, they probably wouldn’t, the supine bunch of c****”."
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1533837156816408578

    So the man child would throw his toys out of the pram and call an election when polling behind Labour . Really !
    Bring it on!
    "Who governs Britain?"



    Only ever gets one answer:

    "Not you!"
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    The "Boris is dead, but he hasn't realised it yet" window looks pretty big (180 for to at least 240 for?) . But there isn't really anyone to tell him the prognosis, and Boris won't listen anyway. How Wagnerian will BoJo's final act be?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    It is, and what is it based on?

    Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?

    What?
    It’s based on some political correspondents who seem to be a bit more bullish about the PMs chances than some others, IMHO, especially the BBC.

    Thing is I’m not sure they’ll want to budge from that narrative in case they’re horribly wrong (it’s easier to say “Boris out in SHOCK VOTE” than it is to say “Boris survives when we said he wouldn’t”).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    Yep. I'm in on that.
    Cash out if a wobble happens just before the result is announced.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    When is Mike next away? I will need to make sure popcorn has been ordered along with the gin.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited June 2022
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    Given the incentive for Scottish Conservatives to put some distance between them and the PM, I think people could be forgiven to thinking he is likely to be a supporter based on that comment, even if he really was doing it on principle.
    TBF his branch office manager has publicly plumped for Mr J. So this is the best Mr Bowie can do without upsetting (a) the new PM (b) his existing BOM (c) almost all his constituents.

    Edit: I am not keeping up. BOM has plumped against Mr J. Please ignore ...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    Yes. The mood music appears to have shifted back to a narrow win for Boris, but I could easily see it going the other way.
    As a #BorisOut person I can't lose tonight. If he wins handsomely that's great for smashing the party later. If he squeaks it he's damaged beyond repair. And if he loses...

    I'm sticking with my earlier "I think he is going to lose this" position. The mood music is very very different to 2018, the declaration tallies even more so, with a growing number of surprises being added to the no column.

    If I'm wrong, so what. If I'm right...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.

    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1533875195148218370

    Come on TSE, don't let your legendary modesty prevent you from telling us what the outcome is going to be. Do spill the beans.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    When is Mike next away? I will need to make sure popcorn has been ordered along with the gin.

    He's in Europe at the moment.

    I've got a holiday booked for middle/late July.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited June 2022
    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    I predicted earlier today that the only Scottish MP to definitely vote for Johnson would probably be David Duguid, MP for Banff and Buchan. Maybe I got the identity wrong but the number right if it was Alistair Jack instead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Has everyone forgotten, this is supposedly the most sophisticated electorate on the planet we are dealing with here?

    …..

    That is a line which has become less convincing on each occasion it has been rolled out.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited June 2022
    So all the scots bar Alistair Jack voted no confidence

    Edit - oh, and maybe Duguid
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    It is, and what is it based on?

    Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?

    What?
    Just looking at Betfair, we have Boris 1.12 to win the confidence vote, and 9 to lose, but also on Betfair we have 1.28 Boris not to have announced his resignation by the end of this month, and 4.4 for him to have folded. That is a great difference; can it all be explained by the "too small margin" theory? The Privileges Committee will surely take more than three weeks to report. So yes, the odds can be wrong.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Chris said:

    Sky now covering 'I would do it again'

    Somewhere between Edith Piaf and Raffaella Carrà ...
    Raffaella Carrà of Canzonissima! I used to love watching that programme when young.
  • Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    That's a matter of principle anyone should stand by in confidential ballots, either way.

    Its a shame people don't stand by that.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Lol if he wins, and Rotfl if the number against is less than his majority.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    No confidence drifting down again from a high of 9
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    When is Mike next away? I will need to make sure popcorn has been ordered along with the gin.

    Surely after 50k posts you've realised gin and popcorn aren't a great combo! (Congrats on the 50k btw)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360
    "Conservative MPs - you have thirty minutes left. Thirty...."
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    When is Mike next away? I will need to make sure popcorn has been ordered along with the gin.

    He's in Europe at the moment.

    I've got a holiday booked for middle/late July.
    So Boris will also be brought down by Europe- just in a different way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited June 2022

    It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.

    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1533875195148218370

    Come on TSE, don't let your legendary modesty prevent you from telling us what the outcome is going to be. Do spill the beans.
    Big Dog to be castrated but not euthanised.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Fk it. 8/1 odds are too good. I’ve had a modest bet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    Where's my Bond Street???

    (only kidding!)
    Between Community Chest and Liverpool Street Station, where it always is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Cyclefree said:

    Chris said:

    Sky now covering 'I would do it again'

    Somewhere between Edith Piaf and Raffaella Carrà ...
    Raffaella Carrà of Canzonissima! I used to love watching that programme when young.
    She had a really interesting life and was a very good interviewer and broadcaster as well as being a performer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Well, if he is out, at least he can spend more time with his wife and young family.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    I think my biggest disappointment so far today is that Dom hasn't tweeted, but the night is yet young.

    Incidentally, good to see you back, @oxfordsimon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    When is Mike next away? I will need to make sure popcorn has been ordered along with the gin.

    He's in Europe at the moment.

    I've got a holiday booked for middle/late July.
    So Boris will also be brought down by Europe- just in a different way.
    You joke but arguably he's the first Tory PM to be brought down over something other than Europe since Ted Heath.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    I could be wrong but it seems to me like there are a disproportionate number of SW England Tory MPs going public in their opposition to Johnson.

    Would make sense if true. They must be under serious threat from a Lib Dem revival and anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election.
    I suspect all the talk of levelling up in the Red Wall grates in a lot of the SW with it's own issues.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    He voted no confidence
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    biggles said:

    Well, if he is out, at least he can spend more time with his wife and young family.

    Get some proper relaxation in, listen to some classical music on the violin perhaps.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.

    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1533875195148218370

    Come on TSE, don't let your legendary modesty prevent you from telling us what the outcome is going to be. Do spill the beans.
    Big Dog to be castrated but not euthanised.
    My guess is anywhere between 160 and 190 votes against is possible. The idiotic comments about doing it again have made the 190 end more favourable.

    It would be incredible if he loses by less than 5 votes the amount of bitching would just be glorious.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    It's the likely Tory leadership contenders I sympathise with. Torn between really wanting the job and cringing that they'll have to put up with that awful wallpaper.

    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1533875195148218370

    Paint over it
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912

    Alistair said:

    No out to @9

    Shirley that is too long now?

    It is, and what is it based on?

    Leaks of the body language of Tory MPs coming out of the voting? Secret mutterings of what they really did and rumours doing the WhatsApp groups?

    What?
    Just looking at Betfair, we have Boris 1.12 to win the confidence vote, and 9 to lose, but also on Betfair we have 1.28 Boris not to have announced his resignation by the end of this month, and 4.4 for him to have folded. That is a great difference; can it all be explained by the "too small margin" theory? The Privileges Committee will surely take more than three weeks to report. So yes, the odds can be wrong.
    I’d forgotten about the committee report. If it’s a narrow win, there’s no chance the Tory members row in behind him.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    I think my biggest disappointment so far today is that Dom hasn't tweeted, but the night is yet young.

    Incidentally, good to see you back, @oxfordsimon.

    He will be getting the next set of photos ready to 'leak'

    Far better to do that at 9.15pm than 8.45pm
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302

    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    He voted no confidence
    Bowie under pressure?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    God, I haven't been this excited since I saw my other half after nearly six months because of the lockdowns.

    You will be up for the result announced then 🤭
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    ping said:

    Fk it. 8/1 odds are too good. I’ve had a modest bet.

    It does seem like pretty much all of PB view the odds as value against Boris. It also seems that everyone on PB would quite like him to lose.

    Amazing times!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    I predicted earlier today that the only Scottish MP to definitely vote for Johnson would probably be David Duguid, MP for Banff and Buchan. Maybe I got the identity wrong but the number right if it was Alistair Jack instead.
    Hey Duggie still hasn't said anything.
  • I've bet on him losing. The public declarations are insufficient, I don't get why 8/1 is available.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    ...added to which, he'd be trying to turn it around during a CoL crisis.

    No one is turning this around within 2 years. Starmer will be happy if Johnson limps on to a GE in 2024 or 2025, by which time the economy may well be on the mend again but not in time to save the Tories.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    biggles said:

    Well, if he is out, at least he can spend more time with his wife and young family.

    's divorce lawyers letters being waved at him by his own divorce lawyer. Who unusually for divorce lawyers is kept on a retainer.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    I've bet on him losing. The public declarations are insufficient, I don't get why 8/1 is available.

    Seems crazy to me.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    Send a task force to Crimea?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    As has been pointed out calling a snap election would be suicidal. The voters really don't like unnecessary elections - see 2017.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    I've bet on him losing. The public declarations are insufficient, I don't get why 8/1 is available.

    As with the Brexit vote, the dumb money has seen the London results/the Cabinet is with him and assumes that is enough.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    Of the five confidence votes:

    Maggie won one, stayed on
    Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
    Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
    May won, gone in months.

    Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    I've bet on him losing. The public declarations are insufficient, I don't get why 8/1 is available.

    It honestly feels as though a Boris backer is attempting to make Boris look like the favourite and is willing to stake a few hundred thousand.

    The 8/1 just doesn't make any sense at all, he's probably favourite to stay in but 2/1 would be fair.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Suddenly we are at 5.9
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Does anyone know when the exit poll will be released?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    As has been pointed out calling a snap election would be suicidal. The voters really don't like unnecessary elections - see 2017.
    But if he's essentially on his way to being bounced out anyway, again...what else is he going to do?

    Hey ho, probably I'm wrong.
  • I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.

    50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353

    But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    MaxPB said:

    I've bet on him losing. The public declarations are insufficient, I don't get why 8/1 is available.

    It honestly feels as though a Boris backer is attempting to make Boris look like the favourite and is willing to stake a few hundred thousand.

    The 8/1 just doesn't make any sense at all, he's probably favourite to stay in but 2/1 would be fair.
    Anything above 8 and I am taking their money.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    Final Tally:

    Confidence: 153
    No Confidence: 51
    Will Not Say: 12

    No Statement: 143


    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533871430751887360

    102 the difference, 155 votes in play.....

    Boris will lose this.
    Kevin Foster comes out for Boris
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353

    In the interests of consistency I would be obliged to say he is entitled to go on in those circumstances, but the bullishness by which he does so will decide how much of a rough ride those 43% continue to give him.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
    Never. I think it's a certainty that Boris would lose his own seat. Labour would probably get a majority. PB would spontaneously combust.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Chris said:

    Does anyone know when the exit poll will be released?

    Do we get one? MPs don't know. Can't see the '22 tellers gobbing off about how the count is going. Would there be time for "word has it" leaks before Mrs Brady reads the numbers?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    Of the five confidence votes:

    Maggie won one, stayed on
    Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
    Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
    May won, gone in months.

    Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
    The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.

    But today is at least the beginning of the end.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    Of the five confidence votes:

    Maggie won one, stayed on
    Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
    Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
    May won, gone in months.

    Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
    Of course it isn't. It shows a deeply divided ungovernable party that can't be relied on when the going gets tough. As Tory leader after Tory leader has found for the last 20 years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    That feels plausible. But if had a chance to turn it around, what would he actually do to turn it around? He's clearly got no great policy initiative or genius Cabinet appointments to pull out of a hat.
    It's why the "call an election pronto" strategy if he wins reasonably narrowly feels plausible to me. What else is he going to do?
    Given the amount of unavoidable bad news arriving later this year - calling an election now is probably the saner option.
    Never. I think it's a certainty that Boris would lose his own seat. Labour would probably get a majority. PB would spontaneously combust.

    I'm so old I remember the old lags from Tory party saying we are looking at a Jan 2025 mid-winter election and debates about leafleting in the snow.

  • DavidL said:

    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353

    But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
    Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.

    52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    I could be wrong but it seems to me like there are a disproportionate number of SW England Tory MPs going public in their opposition to Johnson.

    Would make sense if true. They must be under serious threat from a Lib Dem revival and anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election.
    I suspect all the talk of levelling up in the Red Wall grates in a lot of the SW with it's own issues.
    I don't hear that much from my Tory friends here. What I hear over and over is: 'disgraceful behaviour', 'no integrity', 'lazy', 'lying', 'incompetent'... Partygate has played really big here, including amongst CP members.

    The other thing that's beginning to hit home is that Brexit farming support is worse than when we were in the EU.

    LDs are likely to do well in the SW next GE.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited June 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    Though I thank you for the replies, no one has answered my question. 150+ plus against him is a clear bad result for Boris - yet he is still there! How is he out if you can’t vote him out?

    To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.

    I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon if it’s nearer 150 against?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    Of the five confidence votes:

    Maggie won one, stayed on
    Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
    Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
    May won, gone in months.

    Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
    The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.

    But today is at least the beginning of the end.
    Every day is the beginning of the end. And not just for BJ.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.

    50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
    But a confidence vote is not like a vote on what to do. It's not viable to function if you've lost the confidence of, say, 45% of your MPs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    There's absolutely no chance of Boris calling an election, he'd lose his own seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    15 minutes to go.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited June 2022
    MaxPB said:

    There's absolutely no chance of Boris calling an election, he'd lose his own seat.

    Unless he has stitched up a rat run to a safe seat
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Andy_JS said:

    15 minutes to go.

    Beeb aren't starting their special until 8:30 so I guess we are not getting an immediate result?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    DavidL said:

    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353

    But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
    Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.

    52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
    Lets assume he wins by a small amount. The idea that "the issue is settled, lets move on" takes hold is absurd.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    Though I thank you for the replies, no one has answered my question. 150+ plus against him is a clear bad result for Boris - yet he is still there! How is he out if you can’t vote him out?

    To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.

    I think anything under 120 he will fight the election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon?
    I refer you to the answer I gave earlier.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting to peruse list of Tory MPs publicly backing PM. This is what one of them told me in hushed tones a few months ago of the government whips: “They haven’t got a xxxxing clue what is going on. We have completely shut down. We are not telling them what we think….

    …. They have spies everywhere. So we are all just saying: of course we support you. They do not know what is going to happen.”


    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533882220087234562
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    MaxPB said:

    There's absolutely no chance of Boris calling an election, he'd lose his own seat.

    Unless he has stitched up a rat run to a safe seat
    There won't be any safe seats if he calls an unnecessary election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Andy_JS said:

    15 minutes to go.

    Beeb aren't starting their special until 8:30 so I guess we are not getting an immediate result?
    9pm and both Marr and Dale reckon it’ll be late.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win.
    Failing to have the confidence of 1/3rd of your own MPs would hardly constitute "a clear win"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited June 2022

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    Of the five confidence votes:

    Maggie won one, stayed on
    Maggie had another a year later, won but resigned within days.
    Major won, stayed on, landslide loss at subsequent GE
    May won, gone in months.

    Johnson tonight. Even winning isn't a great prognosis.
    The rules for Thatcher and Major were very different as were the mechanisms. So perhaps not directly comparable.

    But today is at least the beginning of the end.
    Simply having a VONC is pretty terminal is my conclusion.

    My own personal preference is for Johnson to lead his party into a catastrophic early election, losing by a landslide including his own seat. My book however is most green on him losing heavily tonight and Morduant becoming next PM.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    Plugged some data and assumptions on Conservative MPs and how they'll vote into a spreadsheet.
    It forecasts that he will secure the votes of at least 57% of Conservative MPs tonight. Very possible he'll end up failing to match Theresa May's 63% in Dec 2018.


    https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1533879848598372353

    But he is in a very different position from Mrs May. She was effectively a minority PM due to her own incompetence who needed to get a Brexit deal through a House determined to vote everything down. He has a comfortable majority and no major votes in the next year. If he wins he stays. As should be obvious to every MP before they vote.
    Indeed. MPs need to make their choice tonight and stand by it.

    52:48 either way is a decision, just like six years ago. If the rebels get 50% + 1 then he's out, if he gets 50% + 1 then he's in, that's how democracy works.
    Yes and no. No PM can hope to run a successful government with more than 100 of his own MPs not backing him. He will be paralysed. Of course, given some of the recent initiatives like Rwanda, that might not be the worst thing that could happen.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    15 minutes to go.

    Beeb aren't starting their special until 8:30 so I guess we are not getting an immediate result?
    9pm and both Marr and Dale reckon it’ll be late.
    Are the counters from Norfolk?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Wowsers Dehenna Davison voted no confidence!!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    There's absolutely no chance of Boris calling an election, he'd lose his own seat.

    Unless he has stitched up a rat run to a safe seat
    A chicken run would be even more humiliating than losing his seat, and there's no guarantee he wins that either. The constituents may not take kindly to having Boris foisted on them.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Interesting to peruse list of Tory MPs publicly backing PM. This is what one of them told me in hushed tones a few months ago of the government whips: “They haven’t got a xxxxing clue what is going on. We have completely shut down. We are not telling them what we think….

    …. They have spies everywhere. So we are all just saying: of course we support you. They do not know what is going to happen.”


    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533882220087234562

    Well if that's true then the 156 is hogwash.

    And I have to say that I'd be inclined to declare that I support him and voted for him, whilst doing the exact opposite.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?

    I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
    If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.

    And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
    At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
    In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:

    150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.

    120-150 - gone within 6 months.

    100-120 won’t fight the next GE

    anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
    Though I thank you for the replies, no one has answered my question. 150+ plus against him is a clear bad result for Boris - yet he is still there! How is he out if you can’t vote him out?

    To use RCS example, Major went on two years to lead into the election after his win. If Boris has less than 132 against, he has bettered May’s result (it’s done on percentages), arguably May resigned running out of road getting Brexit done, it wasn’t forced on her or voted out in second vonc.

    I think anything under 120 he will fight the election, that figure is a clear Boris win. But what then removes him anytime soon?
    I agree with you.

    180+ straight red card.

    150-180 mortally wounded but not out yet, will almost certainly resign within the next year or so at an opportune moment.

    130-150 on a yellow card, anything new and he's out.

    Sub 130 wounded but survives unless he chooses to go or something new comes up.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Wowsers Dehenna Davison voted no confidence!!!

    Good girl! Bishop Auckland HOLD
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    I want to hear the reports that someone arrived a few minutes late and was turned away.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    My prediction: Boris wins, but not well enough to survive for long - 190 to 168 .

    (The missing vote is because Nadine Dorries found the ballot paper too difficult to complete correctly).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Dehanna votes Johnson out.

    Red Wall crumbling...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Alistair said:

    Incredible.

    “I’m not telling anybody how I’m voting today.
    “It’s a confidential ballot and it’s between me and the ballot paper.

    Aberdeenshire Tory MP Andrew Bowie refuses to say if he backs Boris Johnson… https://t.co/tO7uZ11L4K via @thecourieruk

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1533857519851999233?t=drfyBsRDxPl4K_o6xDrOTA&s=19

    He voted no confidence
    Bowie under pressure?
    Absolute beginners.
This discussion has been closed.