Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
"I do not consider that these failings (those in Gray report) are of a kind that need necessarily disqualify the Prime Minister from continuing in his office if he otherwise enjoys the confidence of the Conservative Parliamentary Party, which constitutes the majority in the House of Commons. Whether he does so, will become apparent shortly."
Did he hand out an invoice?
That's why I write to him, I feel I am getting 1000 worth of freebie per reply . Rather have the cash though
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
I'm cursing not betting on his survival this morning. Not that I would have had time to.
That way, I would have either money or unbridled joy this evening.
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
I'm cursing not betting on his survival this morning. Not that I would have had time to.
That way, I would have either money or unbridled joy this evening.
I have backed survival on exactly those reasons. Sadly I think I will be richer but also sadder.
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
I'm cursing not betting on his survival this morning. Not that I would have had time to.
That way, I would have either money or unbridled joy this evening.
That’s always the best strategy with political betting: bet for the outcome you don’t want, then you win whatever happens.
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
I'm cursing not betting on his survival this morning. Not that I would have had time to.
That way, I would have either money or unbridled joy this evening.
That’s always the best strategy with political betting: bet for the outcome you don’t want, then you win whatever happens.
No. That’s terrible advice.
You bet on value. Your emotions shouldn’t come into it.
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
Nah. Betting is a free for all. That’s why (madly) we allow CFDs.
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
It is completely legal to bet on inside information. Insider trading only refers to securities. (And, in fact, only to a subset of those.)
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.
But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.
I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
Thanks. I know it’s a way off, but people are speculating about if and how he could be forced out if he manages a narrow win tonight and this strikes me as one of the more plausible possibilities.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
If she means an end to “deplatforming” then the statement is internally coherent
The most objectionable one is "no lockdowns ever".
Is she really suggesting that if we got disease with the CFR of Ebola and the transmissibility of Omicron, then the government would not warranted in imposing some restrictions while... you know... they organised the manufacture and distribution of vaccines?
Just a reminder that from 9pm we'll get the usual kneejerk cabinet minister guff and all about getting on with the job and 'what really matters for the country' etc. Likewise the Daily Mail and Leon.
The real in-depth dissection will come in a few days and into the weekend.
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
Just a reminder that from 9pm we'll get the usual kneejerk cabinet minister guff and all about getting on with the job and 'what really matters for the country' etc. Likewise the Daily Mail and Leon.
The real in-depth dissection will come in a few days and into the weekend.
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
I was arguing that a lot of that polling to keep him was from SNP etc ...
Does anyone expect Boris to actually lose? The question is how close and then how he might brazen out a big no vote. It would be remarkable if he lost directly.
Just a reminder that from 9pm we'll get the usual kneejerk cabinet minister guff and all about getting on with the job and 'what really matters for the country' etc. Likewise the Daily Mail and Leon.
The real in-depth dissection will come in a few days and into the weekend.
It's like a by-election result that way (the boring ones, really safe in normal times), where the stock lines are just so very transparent.
This one will be tinged with a bit of personal smugness, I expect some of those who voted against will publicly state they will play ball now as they had their shot, but at the end of the day the problem of poor leadership is only solved by new or improved leadership. They're not getting the former and Boris is incapable of the latter, so rumble on it shall.
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
Maybe they think he is uniquely unfit to be Prime Minster and every hour he remains so damages the nation?
I understand the notion of Country before Party is hard for many to understand
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
It is completely legal to bet on inside information. Insider trading only refers to securities. (And, in fact, only to a subset of those.)
Cheating at gambling is certainly an offence. I would not be surprised if someone betting on such an election with knowledge of the result was considered cheating. Case law could go either way imo. IANAL.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
If she means an end to “deplatforming” then the statement is internally coherent
The most objectionable one is "no lockdowns ever".
Is she really suggesting that if we got disease with the CFR of Ebola and the transmissibility of Omicron, then the government would not warranted in imposing some restrictions while... you know... they organised the manufacture and distribution of vaccines?
Quite. Although if that happened virtually everyone would voluntarily lock down. I think one of the issues around Covid has been that for most people, even pre vaccines, you got over it. It really has been a reaper of the elderly and those who are not in the best of health.* I’m not convinced how many more would have died overall if we hadn’t locked down.
*And some very fit younger people too, before everyone jumps in.
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
It is completely legal to bet on inside information. Insider trading only refers to securities. (And, in fact, only to a subset of those.)
Cheating at gambling is certainly an offence. I would not be surprised if someone betting on such an election with knowledge of the result was considered cheating. Case law could go either way imo. IANAL.
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
Maybe they think he is uniquely unfit to be Prime Minster and every hour he remains so damages the nation?
I understand the notion of Country before Party is hard for many to understand
The logic is that eliminating the Tory Party is good for the country, and this is the best way to achieve it.
Does anyone expect Boris to actually lose? The question is how close and then how he might brazen out a big no vote. It would be remarkable if he lost directly.
Lots on here today have said he would lose today. Looking like hope casting now, sadly.
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
Maybe they think he is uniquely unfit to be Prime Minster and every hour he remains so damages the nation?
I understand the notion of Country before Party is hard for many to understand
The logic is that eliminating the Tory Party is good for the country, and this is the best way to achieve it.
The only way you would eliminate the Tory Party was if Farage got a new party again that replaced it
Does anyone expect Boris to actually lose? The question is how close and then how he might brazen out a big no vote. It would be remarkable if he lost directly.
I think its possible, yes. Though I will be delighted to be wrong because when he wins with an uncomfortably small margin, we all win
Brady has told the PM hence his supporters turned early in room looking chipper. 😕
When Mays win was announced huge roar from everyone made me think it was manufactured to only have the victors in front the camera.
But if it’s more than 130 so, it’s not that great. But in the circumstances of the charge seat against him, surviving with only 130 against is quite good for them really.
Does anyone expect Boris to actually lose? The question is how close and then how he might brazen out a big no vote. It would be remarkable if he lost directly.
I thought it was possible. Hearing all the rumours swirling now it feels like he’s won it though. I will go for 150+ against, pyrrhic victory (watch me be horrendously wrong and it will be 65 or something).
Surely those who are labour, SNP voters etc should be rooting for him to stay on. I don't understand their enthusiasm for him to be voted out. If he loses today, then there is a risk that the tories will sort themselves out and get re-elected in the next GE, which looks unlikely for as long as Johnson is leader.
Maybe they think he is uniquely unfit to be Prime Minster and every hour he remains so damages the nation?
I understand the notion of Country before Party is hard for many to understand
The logic is that eliminating the Tory Party is good for the country, and this is the best way to achieve it.
The only way you would eliminate the Tory Party was if Farage got a new party again that replaced it
You mean that the Tory Party has absorbed UKIP? I quite agree.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
If she means an end to “deplatforming” then the statement is internally coherent
The most objectionable one is "no lockdowns ever".
Is she really suggesting that if we got disease with the CFR of Ebola and the transmissibility of Omicron, then the government would not warranted in imposing some restrictions while... you know... they organised the manufacture and distribution of vaccines?
But, we don't know how close it is - Brady might have told the PM out of courtesy if he'd lost (or not) but if he mentioned the number it'd leak almost instantly.
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
It is completely legal to bet on inside information. Insider trading only refers to securities. (And, in fact, only to a subset of those.)
Cheating at gambling is certainly an offence. I would not be surprised if someone betting on such an election with knowledge of the result was considered cheating. Case law could go either way imo. IANAL.
Betting on something that you have knowledge of is not cheating unless the conditions under which you place the best stipulate you do not possess the knowledge - in which case you would fall under section 3 for deception.
Chris Mason is a serious step down from Laura Kuenssberg (even if his name is a hell of a lot easier to spell). He brings no value at all, tripping from banality to banality.
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
Anyone with insider knowledge of this will surely stay well out of the betting. Presumably it is illegal? FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
It is completely legal to bet on inside information. Insider trading only refers to securities. (And, in fact, only to a subset of those.)
Cheating at gambling is certainly an offence. I would not be surprised if someone betting on such an election with knowledge of the result was considered cheating. Case law could go either way imo. IANAL.
Knowing the result is not cheating.
Up to case law to define. The Ivey edge-sorting case suggests the term cheating is to be interpreted more widely than punters might expect. It is also established that it is cheating to bet post the event in roulette. Bookmakers in their t&c explicitly list insider trading as cheating. I don't think it is a big leap to see a court find likewise.
If such a case came to court I would be happy to back 4/1 either side, as long as it was not against the judge.....
Who has done best in expectations management? One MP is saying anything more than 100 voting against PM woule be surprising and disappointing (as they owe Boris), others are saying if it is less than 140 he is probably safe.
Comments
FWIW I thought the odds on Boris being voted out would tighten as the day goes on, and they are going the other way, which is strange.
That way, I would have either money or unbridled joy this evening.
‘Lots of smiling faces,’ one says.
https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1533896279553630208
- "REBEL scum!"
???
My head said it was very very difficult to lose a VONC.
I think he’ll scrape through, tonight at least.
He won’t last too much longer though.
My guess: 147 against the clown.
You bet on value. Your emotions shouldn’t come into it.
If she means an end to “deplatforming” then the statement is internally coherent
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533898196942036994
It has got a pulse.
Is she really suggesting that if we got disease with the CFR of Ebola and the transmissibility of Omicron, then the government would not warranted in imposing some restrictions while... you know... they organised the manufacture and distribution of vaccines?
The real in-depth dissection will come in a few days and into the weekend.
Confidence 217
No confidence 142
Whatever HYUFD thinks to the contrary.
This one will be tinged with a bit of personal smugness, I expect some of those who voted against will publicly state they will play ball now as they had their shot, but at the end of the day the problem of poor leadership is only solved by new or improved leadership. They're not getting the former and Boris is incapable of the latter, so rumble on it shall.
I understand the notion of Country before Party is hard for many to understand
End of the line for the Tories, new party please
Although if that happened virtually everyone would voluntarily lock down.
I think one of the issues around Covid has been that for most people, even pre vaccines, you got over it. It really has been a reaper of the elderly and those who are not in the best of health.* I’m not convinced how many more would have died overall if we hadn’t locked down.
*And some very fit younger people too, before everyone jumps in.
And that's the time it's always been
Anyone brave enough to ride this wave?
He may simply limp on for a few months then be put out of his misery.
When Mays win was announced huge roar from everyone made me think it was manufactured to only have the victors in front the camera.
But if it’s more than 130 so, it’s not that great. But in the circumstances of the charge seat against him, surviving with only 130 against is quite good for them really.
But, we don't know how close it is - Brady might have told the PM out of courtesy if he'd lost (or not) but if he mentioned the number it'd leak almost instantly.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1533900759410024449
If such a case came to court I would be happy to back 4/1 either side, as long as it was not against the judge.....
For: It'd be really hard to persuade the 100-odd openly rebellious Tories to oppose it.
Against: Why interrupt the Conservatives in their arguments?