London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".
It's quite a clever (and totally disingenuous) way to appear to be loyal whilst plunging the knife!
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Not so sure. A 'well done lads' is possible in Tiverton if hes quit by the 23rd - or at least encourage blue turnout. Wakefield less so, its more natural 'Boris appeal' territory that will want to see new Brexit red meat
If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May..... https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
[snip]
Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.
Lab Maj still looks dreadful value. Key indicators are:
- the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov - and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May..... https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
Unless the Tories do a Michael Howard-style coronation then he'd presumably stay in office while they have a leadership election.
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
[snip]
Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Not so sure. A 'well done lads' is possible in Tiverton if hes quit by the 23rd - or at least encourage blue turnout. Wakefield less so, its more natural 'Boris appeal' territory that will want to see new Brexit red meat
Tiverton stays Tory if Boris ousted next week.
I’m not kidding when I say party’s of joy and relief will break out, everyone in the country will feel better.
If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May..... https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
He would not resign as PM until a new leader is elected. Or, he could just wait till the Wednesday then quit. The vote is as party leader, tweeter is being a bit thick
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
[snip]
Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
Which is why he calls him negligent, surely.
Indeed, but that's a very generous interpretation.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it
It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.
Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.
You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it
It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.
Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.
You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it
It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.
Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.
You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May..... https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
Unless the Tories do a Michael Howard-style coronation then he'd presumably stay in office while they have a leadership election.
Though if he goes in disgrace (and it would be in disgrace), I can see him either going off in a huff or being replaced by a caretaker.
Not necessarily likely. But if he ends up below not just TMay, but Gordo in the longevity stakes, that would be very very funny.
FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final Hampden Park Wednesday
Scotland 11/8 Ukraine 13/5
If y'all hate Liverpool fans, wait til Scotland fans start singing "Yes Sir I Can Bucha" before kickoff
In one of my spasms of insomnia I listened to the World Service fitbaw prog last week. Pat Nevin insists that Scottish fans have been learning the words to the Ukrainian national anthem so they can sing along. IN UKRAINIAN!
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
[snip]
Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
Of course not.
Boris lacks integrity.
Wright is trying his best to be as fair as possible. He goes perhaps further than you or I might go. But it makes his last paragraph all the more devastating.
Not sure if anyone is still following, but a couple of Spanish articles wrt the events in Paris. You need to click past the dialogue box and translate if you don't read Spanish.
London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".
Her Westminster council was a big loss to Labour in local elex
Email this afternoon to constituents said that she "was incredulous and appalled in equal measure reading Ms Gray’s report".
Not clear whether she's submitted a letter to the '22
Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
I shall certainly look forward to all the types who bleated continuously that 'we voted as one country' re. Brexit having it cast back viciously at them.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
In general, I think the Guardian has a Russia problem. He's not the only one. That rancid bag of wet shit Seamus Milne was at it a few years ago too.
I don't think it's generalised. Jenkins' approach as a columnist is to adopt a contrary position - he does it on everything and is usually wrong. I find him pretty tiresome as a columnist to be honest. Other Guardian columnists have been very robust in their support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
Guardian is suggesting that Boris (ah, OK) will survive the VoNC and have a reshuffle after the by-elections. It suggests that Priti Patel might leave the Home Office to become Party Chair.
And another critic: Dan Poulter says PM's assurances that no rules were broken "lack credibility" after Gray report - "to mislead Parliament cannot be tolerated".
"A minister who knowingly misleads Parliament should resign."
I'm encouraged that at least a few, whether they've sent a letter or not, are publicly not accepting the PM's 'I'm stupid' defence which he has used to insist he did not mislead Parliament.
MPs pretend to accept a lot of nonsense for sake of a quiet life, pretend to believe their leader meant X when they said Y, or were simply mistaken, but sometimes you just have to cry foul.
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.
Are you local?
No, im not. 60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole) I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final Hampden Park Wednesday
Scotland 11/8 Ukraine 13/5
If y'all hate Liverpool fans, wait til Scotland fans start singing "Yes Sir I Can Bucha" before kickoff
In one of my spasms of insomnia I listened to the World Service fitbaw prog last week. Pat Nevin insists that Scottish fans have been learning the words to the Ukrainian national anthem so they can sing along. IN UKRAINIAN!
Hope it is a classic, booming soviet style anthem, those can be great. And if they are relatively speedy it'll be hard for thousands to enunciate it so well that any mispronounciation is picked up. Fair dos if they can pull that off though.
Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.
But no, surely we'd have heard.
So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
[snip]
Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
Of course not.
Boris lacks integrity.
That feels like when someone has to write an official report and bland language disguises utterly damning opinion.
Eg
'Your view does not withstand reasonable analysis' for 'You are insane'.
Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.
But no, surely we'd have heard.
So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
I would remove 'maybe' from your last sentence as I have little doubt the coming together with mps and their constituents over the jubilee party season is going to shake them rigid
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
Considering the header; I think the reality is that both of the people will have had quite mixed records. Bob Neill is one of our wiser politicians - but was still part of a political project that has ruined the justice system, ie the coalition government (2010-2015). Something in me also has more respect for the police than lawyers, going in to the police is generally a more difficult, dangerous and lower paid path. I don't understand how anyone in the police would want to deal with politicians; no amount of money would convince me to do a job like that.
Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.
But no, surely we'd have heard.
So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
The reports I read were that he made a couple of minutes of apologies at the 1922. Then half an hour of jokes about it.
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.
Are you local?
No, im not. 60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole) I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
thank you for your letter of 20 january in which you said that you were awaiting the final Gray report and the Prime Minister's subsequent statement to the House.
I intended to write to you at length on the situation now that those two things have happened. Fortunately your colleague Jeremy Wright has made a statement (link below) which says more eloquently than I could everything I have to say on the subject, with the minor caveat that he is over generous to the PM both on the applicable standard of proof and as to whether that standard has been met, given that the charge is not that of lying to the House, but more generally that of misleading it.
I hope that you will agree with me that the time has come to take all necessary steps to ensure that the PM is removed from office, and look forward to hearing that you have submitted a letter to the 1922 committee.
Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
I shall certainly look forward to all the types who bleated continuously that 'we voted as one country' re. Brexit having it cast back viciously at them.
We did vote as one country for brexit one referendum. Situation for government is different as the SNP don't vote in the uk parliament on english only matters.
So either the conservatives are the prima facie government for the uk but the labour alliance is the government for the uk
or
SNP decide that rule no longer applies and get significant push back from the not scots when they vote for things that don't affect their consituents.
Either way will be entertaining don't care much which
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
I would rejoin the day Boris goes
I was never a member and would not become one. But I would at least start to consider supporting the Tories if Johnson was gone. They would be back in the mix like the other parties. That is an impossibility for me as long as he is the leader.
32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.
Astonishing
Boris and his government are tax and spenders. They have moved us to highest tax take for 70 years. They promised no tax rises, but invented a new tax and people now feeling it in their pockets - words v actions. Why would 19% think these Tories of all people advocate for lower taxes, all the hard evidence is explicitly otherwise?
Tories will be known as the high tax big splurge party for years to come after this stint in power.
Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
Why direction? This is post Sunak splashing the cash. To which there are two responses. Thanks very much. Con up 5. Finally did what the opposition said. Not before time. Captain Foresight. Lab up 3.
May be an outlier too. But it isn't an illogical reaction to events.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.
Are you local?
No, im not. 60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole) I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
Will watch with interest then!
I think a lot will depend upon whether it is targeted and that will depend upon poll ratings and they are not good enough yet I suspect. Because of Guildford, Woking, SW Surrey, Esher and Walton so close there won't be much incoming help. I suspect Esher and Walton, followed by Guildford will be 1 and 2. Once I would have been in the position of knowing this stuff, but now I am out of that loop I can freely speculating knowing that my view may well be complete twaddle.
That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.
Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
Short lived relief rally after Sunak handout. Easily time for the sugar rush to subside between now and then. chill.
But point is, at this moment, tonight, you just don’t know 😃
Spooky, isn't it, but I find lots of future stuff is like that. My point is there's time to do the sums and work out that £600 is not very much money anyway, 600 minus say 2,000 even less so
My next worry is this: interest rate rises = mortgage hikes = evictions. sunak is now so boxed in to a Help for Hardworking Families corner that I think he will find himself offering people monthly subs to make up the difference, and that's not pocket change like a £600 one-off, it's serious wedge every month. That, and the house price crash if it happens, will make mincemeat of him
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Smarkets 1.76 on him losing a VOC if he faces one in 2022. Money back if he doesn't face one in 2022.
Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
Why direction? This is post Sunak splashing the cash. To which there are two responses. Thanks very much. Con up 5. Finally did what the opposition said. Not before time. Captain Foresight. Lab up 3.
May be an outlier too. But it isn't an illogical reaction to events.
OK, I hadn't thought of that. In my mind it is still partygate, but that might be my bias whereas others may have focused on the windfall tax and free money so what you said makes complete sense. Big swings though.
If you think 'partygate', like I was possibly incorrectly doing, then I would expect the Tory numbers to go down and the LDs popularity to go up (although their number to stay neutral or slightly down as this was a high number in the first place).
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
In general, I think the Guardian has a Russia problem. He's not the only one. That rancid bag of wet shit Seamus Milne was at it a few years ago too.
I don't think it's generalised. Jenkins' approach as a columnist is to adopt a contrary position - he does it on everything and is usually wrong. I find him pretty tiresome as a columnist to be honest. Other Guardian columnists have been very robust in their support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia.
It could be another sign of growing old and weary but I have little appetite these days for "controversialist" punditry. It's easy to do, being usually trite bollox, and it's ... I dunno just rather unnecessary. Intrusive too, since I never asked for it.
Whenever I come across this type of thing I tend to intuit an "irl" situation where some bore on his 4th or 5th is banging on in "colourful" vein convinced he's being provocative and stimulating. Or of course it could be a "wind up". Ho fucking ho.
Piers Morgan Derangement Syndrome? Yes, if you like.
32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.
Astonishing
Boris and his government are tax and spenders. They have moved us to highest tax take for 70 years. They promised no tax rises, but invented a new tax and people now feeling it in their pockets - words v actions. Why would 19% think these Tories of all people advocate for lower taxes, all the hard evidence is explicitly otherwise?
Tories will be known as the high tax big splurge party for years to come after this stint in power.
it's even better thyan that, the new tax is actually just a figleaf to disguise higher borrowing
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
I doubt that really matters. If he loses a VOC he is out in due course. The clouds would mostly lift.
Reflecting again. One poll. Etc.. That's a shocking poll for the government. 7% behind after shovelling hundreds of pounds at folk. I know things take a while to filter through. But there aren't many other bullets to fire.
Reflecting again. One poll. Etc.. That's a shocking poll for the government. 7% behind after shovelling hundreds of pounds at folk. I know things take a while to filter through. But there aren't many other bullets to fire.
Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.
I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
It will be harder to squeeze the LD without the threat of a barking Marxist as PM.
More generally, I wonder if the upsides of rivals to Johnson are strong enough to compensate for his own upside among the easily impressed and the hardline Brexiters. The only unambiguously close performer would be Sunak, and only because he borrows a few extra tens of billions of pounds a year to spend on stuff for voters.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
Yeah, I've got his church book.
He comes across as a mandarin-type, into "managed decline", UK should know its place, who cares if Scotland leaves, etc. And a Kissinger rather than a Soros take on the current conflict. Sometimes these "realists" prove to be pretty unrealistic in practise.
On the poll, if it's accurate then regardless of the Tory 36%, Labour at 43% is more interesting. I've long argued that Labour needs to be polling consistently in the 40s to win power. A poll like 38/31 may have the same Labour lead, but the Labour score simply isn't high enough. Today's is encouraging.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
I doubt that really matters. If he loses a VOC he is out in due course. The clouds would mostly lift.
The CoL crisis will do for the Tories even if Johnson goes.
If he goes they lose the next GE; if he stays they get annihilated.
Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/
On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/
He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Doubt very much if Carrie will agree to that.
Is that still a consideration? Everyone here last night said she'd moved to France and changed her name to Galadrielle.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/
On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/
He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/
Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/
On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/
He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/
If one reads the whole thread it's much more nuanced than the impression given by your selected extracts.
In short, while the English cringe at the idea they're not on board with American foreign policy, the French positively revel in it, even if they all end up doing the same thing: the WFH war, massive aid to Ukraine but not actually fighting.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Really good piece Cyclefree, easier to shrug and ignore and concentrate on the roses but better imo to stay alert and angry. All this self-regarding, ethics-free mediocrity in public life might not have started with Boris Johnson becoming PM but, dearie me, it hasn't helped. Will some of the damage be reversible when he's retired to the cruise ships? This has to be the key question. Guess it depends on who comes next.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
I would rejoin the day Boris goes
I was never a member and would not become one. But I would at least start to consider supporting the Tories if Johnson was gone. They would be back in the mix like the other parties. That is an impossibility for me as long as he is the leader.
That's where I was back in about December, but these MPs have shown themselves to be cowards and I'm definitely not voting for them at least until they've had a taste of opposition. The last six months have been really bad.
I consider almost all MPs to be as bad as each other, with a few dozen exceptions on each side. They are all cowards concerned to a greater or lesser extent more with their own advancement than with the good of the country. But Johnson is, to my mind, almost uniquely unfit for High Office.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
The threat to food supplies and disruption to oil and gas is, in itself, far more serious a strategic threat to the UK and Europe than the Russian military threat. And it is very real, and indeed has already happened.
Russia couldn't possibly sustain an occupation of a large area for any length of time - they simply don't have the resources - but by hammering Ukraine and their own fuel extraction industry they have unleashed economic chaos that they may consider a decent second prize.
Comments
10-15% 7/4
5-10% 9/4
15-20% 3/1
20-25% 7/1
25-30% 16/1
20 bar
Wakefield less so, its more natural 'Boris appeal' territory that will want to see new Brexit red meat
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
- the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov
- and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
I’m not kidding when I say party’s of joy and relief will break out, everyone in the country will feel better.
The vote is as party leader, tweeter is being a bit thick
Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.
I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.
You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
Anyway, have Labour really gone backward in the Tedfield?
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservative 36% (+5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4
Ummmmmmmmm ??
Saving Big Dog was a bridge too far.
Not necessarily likely. But if he ends up below not just TMay, but Gordo in the longevity stakes, that would be very very funny.
IN UKRAINIAN!
Boris lacks integrity.
Wright is trying his best to be as fair as possible. He goes perhaps further than you or I might go. But it makes his last paragraph all the more devastating.
Not sure if anyone is still following, but a couple of Spanish articles wrt the events in Paris. You need to click past the dialogue box and translate if you don't read Spanish.
https://www.20minutos.es/deportes/noticia/5007262/0/cronica-atracos-pesadilla-aficionados-real-madrid-liverpool-final-champions-league/
https://www.20minutos.es/deportes/noticia/5007355/0/inglaterra-francia-caos-final-champions-liverpool-real-madrid/
Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
@EdwardJDavey - net plus 2 (19%/17%)
@Keir_Starmer - net minus 6 (30%/36%)
@RishiSunak - net minus 14 (28%/42%)
@BorisJohnson - net minus 30 (27%/56%)*
HY has every right to talk it up. It’s only a rouge poll if other polls this week are quite different to it.
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
I think we can assume Douglas isn't getting them 30% in Scotland though
MPs pretend to accept a lot of nonsense for sake of a quiet life, pretend to believe their leader meant X when they said Y, or were simply mistaken, but sometimes you just have to cry foul.
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
But no, surely we'd have heard.
So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
Eg
'Your view does not withstand reasonable analysis' for 'You are insane'.
So there!
Dear Sir Geoffrey
thank you for your letter of 20 january in which you said that you were awaiting the final Gray report and the Prime Minister's subsequent statement to the House.
I intended to write to you at length on the situation now that those two things have happened. Fortunately your colleague Jeremy Wright has made a statement (link below) which says more eloquently than I could everything I have to say on the subject, with the minor caveat that he is over generous to the PM both on the applicable standard of proof and as to whether that standard has been met, given that the charge is not that of lying to the House, but more generally that of misleading it.
https://www.jeremywright.org.uk/news/prime-minister-may-2022
I hope that you will agree with me that the time has come to take all necessary steps to ensure that the PM is removed from office, and look forward to hearing that you have submitted a letter to the 1922 committee.
https://www.jeremywright.org.uk/news/prime-minister-may-2022
love ishmael x
Tiverton blue if BJ goes
So either the conservatives are the prima facie government for the uk but the labour alliance is the government for the uk
or
SNP decide that rule no longer applies and get significant push back from the not scots when they vote for things that don't affect their consituents.
Either way will be entertaining don't care much which
Tories will be known as the high tax big splurge party for years to come after this stint in power.
To which there are two responses. Thanks very much. Con up 5.
Finally did what the opposition said. Not before time. Captain Foresight. Lab up 3.
May be an outlier too. But it isn't an illogical reaction to events.
My next worry is this: interest rate rises = mortgage hikes = evictions. sunak is now so boxed in to a Help for Hardworking Families corner that I think he will find himself offering people monthly subs to make up the difference, and that's not pocket change like a £600 one-off, it's serious wedge every month. That, and the house price crash if it happens, will make mincemeat of him
If you think 'partygate', like I was possibly incorrectly doing, then I would expect the Tory numbers to go down and the LDs popularity to go up (although their number to stay neutral or slightly down as this was a high number in the first place).
Whenever I come across this type of thing I tend to intuit an "irl" situation where some bore on his 4th or 5th is banging on in "colourful" vein convinced he's being provocative and stimulating. Or of course it could be a "wind up". Ho fucking ho.
Piers Morgan Derangement Syndrome? Yes, if you like.
One poll. Etc..
That's a shocking poll for the government.
7% behind after shovelling hundreds of pounds at folk. I know things take a while to filter through. But there aren't many other bullets to fire.
More generally, I wonder if the upsides of rivals to Johnson are strong enough to compensate for his own upside among the easily impressed and the hardline Brexiters. The only unambiguously close performer would be Sunak, and only because he borrows a few extra tens of billions of pounds a year to spend on stuff for voters.
He comes across as a mandarin-type, into "managed decline", UK should know its place, who cares if Scotland leaves, etc. And a Kissinger rather than a Soros take on the current conflict. Sometimes these "realists" prove to be pretty unrealistic in practise.
If he goes they lose the next GE; if he stays they get annihilated.
On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/
He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/
https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1531289886099132416
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/05/03/russia-just-threatened-to-destroy-ireland-and-britain-with-a-nuclear-tsunami/?sh=217323f732b6
And what about the security of Europe?
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble
Russia couldn't possibly sustain an occupation of a large area for any length of time - they simply don't have the resources - but by hammering Ukraine and their own fuel extraction industry they have unleashed economic chaos that they may consider a decent second prize.