Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Policeman and The Lawyer – politicalbetting.com

24567

Comments

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    For maximum fun we need a situation whereby

    Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Applicant said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jeremy Wright's statement here - https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1531252861908267008?s=21&t=WVgYMr0-jrNw30ziLRGKqg

    Yes - another lawyer. A former Attorney-General.

    And, pace @YBarddCwsc's comment above, I am not praising their legal skills but their political decision which seems to be informed by their legal training.

    I make no apologies for this.

    The last paragraph in Jeremy Wright's statement ought to be required reading for every Tory MP.

    He goes at length into whether Boris lied and concludes that he can't be sure that he did. It will be interesting to see how this corresopnds to the Beckett Committee report.
    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    But the final paragraph is the key one and what he says there is absolutely correct. Like Bob Neill he understands that trust is essential and that Boris has squandered it and must go.

    I agree.

    Mind you I thought that Boris should never have been made leader or PM.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    I notice a few Tory MPs with libdems snapping at their heals are calling for the PM to resign.

    Yep. Blue wall falling.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    And another critic: Dan Poulter says PM's assurances that no rules were broken "lack credibility" after Gray report - "to mislead Parliament cannot be tolerated".

    "A minister who knowingly misleads Parliament should resign."

    He says he won't be declaring if he's sent a letter.

    https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531300523751645184
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    edited May 2022
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Oooh ... Elliot Colburn has now called for Johnson to resign.

    Why 'ooooh'? Because he's a new Surrey MP. The blue wall is turning yellow and they're right to be worried.

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-former-culture-secretary-latest-tory-mp-to-call-for-boris-johnson-to-resign-12624248

    The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
    You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.

    This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
    Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too.
    All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone.
    Imo.
    Mole Valley.
    Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold
    I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
    It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.

    Are you local?
    No, im not.
    60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole)
    I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Scott_xP said:

    London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".

    It's quite a clever (and totally disingenuous) way to appear to be loyal whilst plunging the knife!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Not so sure. A 'well done lads' is possible in Tiverton if hes quit by the 23rd - or at least encourage blue turnout.
    Wakefield less so, its more natural 'Boris appeal' territory that will want to see new Brexit red meat
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May.....
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    [snip]

    Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar

    Odds against for 10-15% is pretty nice.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Farooq said:

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.
    Lab Maj still looks dreadful value. Key indicators are:

    - the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov
    - and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Scott_xP said:

    If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May.....
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341

    Unless the Tories do a Michael Howard-style coronation then he'd presumably stay in office while they have a leadership election.
  • Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Cyclefree said:

    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    [snip]

    Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
    Which is why he calls him negligent, surely.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Not so sure. A 'well done lads' is possible in Tiverton if hes quit by the 23rd - or at least encourage blue turnout.
    Wakefield less so, its more natural 'Boris appeal' territory that will want to see new Brexit red meat
    Tiverton stays Tory if Boris ousted next week.

    I’m not kidding when I say party’s of joy and relief will break out, everyone in the country will feel better.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    Scott_xP said:

    If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May.....
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341

    He would not resign as PM until a new leader is elected. Or, he could just wait till the Wednesday then quit.
    The vote is as party leader, tweeter is being a bit thick
  • pingping Posts: 3,724

    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar

    Is 0-5% 20/1?

    Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.

    I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Applicant said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    [snip]

    Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
    Which is why he calls him negligent, surely.
    Indeed, but that's a very generous interpretation.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.
    Lab Maj still looks dreadful value. Key indicators are:

    - the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov
    - and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
    Economic woes could hurt Tories and SNP at the same time.
    Far from nailed on, but the central estimate has to be economic pain leading to reactions against parties in power. If we tip into recession and start to see job losses, the VI *could* shift a fair amount.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it

    It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.

    Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.

    You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it

    It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.

    Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.

    You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
    Are you sure that isn't just his face?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    He was an idiot back then, and he’s even more of an idiot now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Add him to Orwell’s Fellow Travellor list 🤭

    Anyway, have Labour really gone backward in the Tedfield?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    :(
    In general, I think the Guardian has a Russia problem. He's not the only one. That rancid bag of wet shit Seamus Milne was at it a few years ago too.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Yes but a VONC doesn’t mean Johnson will actually lose it

    It’s a different dynamic when it’s real. It’s make your mind up time. Remember, a vote to keep Boris is an endorsement of Boris.

    Soon as the VONC is called he’s a gonner.

    You can tell as early as last week the game was up, when Grant Shapps wasn’t even trying anymore. Lame spin came out, his face was not selling it. Look at his face when he came out the Windfall Tax cabinet - game up face.
    Are you sure that isn't just his face?
    I think he’s a great spinner. The Best.

    Saving Big Dog was a bridge too far.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,080

    Scott_xP said:

    If Boris Johnson is ousted on Monday by a vote of no confidence, he would be just ONE day short of Gordon Brown's stint as PM. He would need to make it to August 3rd to have outlasted Theresa May.....
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1531301488177422341

    Unless the Tories do a Michael Howard-style coronation then he'd presumably stay in office while they have a leadership election.
    Though if he goes in disgrace (and it would be in disgrace), I can see him either going off in a huff or being replaced by a caretaker.

    Not necessarily likely. But if he ends up below not just TMay, but Gordo in the longevity stakes, that would be very very funny.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited May 2022
    Nickie Aiken has apparently called for Johnson to face a VONC. MP for Cities of London and Westminster.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    edited May 2022
    Farooq said:

    FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
    Hampden Park
    Wednesday

    Scotland 11/8
    Ukraine 13/5

    If y'all hate Liverpool fans, wait til Scotland fans start singing "Yes Sir I Can Bucha" before kickoff
    In one of my spasms of insomnia I listened to the World Service fitbaw prog last week. Pat Nevin insists that Scottish fans have been learning the words to the Ukrainian national anthem so they can sing along.
    IN UKRAINIAN!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    [snip]

    Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
    Of course not.

    Boris lacks integrity.

    Wright is trying his best to be as fair as possible. He goes perhaps further than you or I might go. But it makes his last paragraph all the more devastating.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    Excellent header.

    Not sure if anyone is still following, but a couple of Spanish articles wrt the events in Paris. You need to click past the dialogue box and translate if you don't read Spanish.

    https://www.20minutos.es/deportes/noticia/5007262/0/cronica-atracos-pesadilla-aficionados-real-madrid-liverpool-final-champions-league/

    https://www.20minutos.es/deportes/noticia/5007355/0/inglaterra-francia-caos-final-champions-liverpool-real-madrid/

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    edited May 2022

    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣

    And Lab, but first fully post splurge poll
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.

    Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".

    Her Westminster council was a big loss to Labour in local elex

    Email this afternoon to constituents said that she "was incredulous and appalled in equal measure reading Ms Gray’s report".

    Not clear whether she's submitted a letter to the '22


    https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531296944978534403

    Unknown in Meeks S/S

    He can't "submit himself to a VONC", they stopped that after Major did it. I suppose he could order the whole cabinet to send letters in, though

    It wouldn't need to be the cabinet, just backbench supporters of Johnson.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣

    HYUFD will slither in any moment to talk it up.

    Labour + Green on 48% is also a standout from that. Remarkable.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    Latest leader approval ratings from @OpiniumResearch:

    @EdwardJDavey - net plus 2 (19%/17%)
    @Keir_Starmer - net minus 6 (30%/36%)
    @RishiSunak - net minus 14 (28%/42%)
    @BorisJohnson - net minus 30 (27%/56%)*
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.

    Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
    March 31 Teche was last 36%, labour highest since January ComRes
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    Pagan2 said:

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    For maximum fun we need a situation whereby

    Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
    I shall certainly look forward to all the types who bleated continuously that 'we voted as one country' re. Brexit having it cast back viciously at them.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    :(
    In general, I think the Guardian has a Russia problem. He's not the only one. That rancid bag of wet shit Seamus Milne was at it a few years ago too.
    I don't think it's generalised. Jenkins' approach as a columnist is to adopt a contrary position - he does it on everything and is usually wrong. I find him pretty tiresome as a columnist to be honest. Other Guardian columnists have been very robust in their support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    The regional subsamples for that poll are hilarious. How likely is it that some of the numbers could have been mixed up?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Farooq said:

    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣

    HYUFD will slither in any moment to talk it up.

    Labour + Green on 48% is also a standout from that. Remarkable.
    Add Libdem it’s 58. Reform squeezed.

    HY has every right to talk it up. It’s only a rouge poll if other polls this week are quite different to it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.

    Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
    Short lived relief rally after Sunak handout. Easily time for the sugar rush to subside between now and then. chill.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Not much optimism in France:

    Cluster 17 poll: 'Will Emmanuel Macron's second term be better, similar or worse than the first?'

    Worse: 44%
    Similar: 28%
    Better: 15%
    Don't know: 13%


    image

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1531242017086394371

    RN and Zemmour seem to be solidly on 25-26% for the Legislative elections, and look set to eclipse Les Republicains on the Right.,
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Guardian is suggesting that Boris (ah, OK) will survive the VoNC and have a reshuffle after the by-elections. It suggests that Priti Patel might leave the Home Office to become Party Chair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    We should stop bringing up the Henriques report and similar issues, after all that is the Police's approach to the criticism of them in them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Heathener said:

    'Consensus is that the trickle of letters is becoming a steady stream'

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642

    It's the members wot did it

    Heard that one before, but I suppose eventually the boy who cried wolf did so legitimately.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    edited May 2022

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    The regional subsamples for that poll are hilarious. How likely is it that some of the numbers could have been mixed up?
    Tories ahead with men

    I think we can assume Douglas isn't getting them 30% in Scotland though
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣

    HYUFD will slither in any moment to talk it up.

    Labour + Green on 48% is also a standout from that. Remarkable.
    Add Libdem it’s 58. Reform squeezed.

    HY has every right to talk it up. It’s only a rouge poll if other polls this week are quite different to it.
    It's simultaneously good and bad news for the Tories. But H will only dwell on the one side of it. He's probably mopping himself and his keyboard as we speak
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_xP said:

    And another critic: Dan Poulter says PM's assurances that no rules were broken "lack credibility" after Gray report - "to mislead Parliament cannot be tolerated".

    "A minister who knowingly misleads Parliament should resign."

    He says he won't be declaring if he's sent a letter.

    https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531300523751645184

    I'm encouraged that at least a few, whether they've sent a letter or not, are publicly not accepting the PM's 'I'm stupid' defence which he has used to insist he did not mislead Parliament.

    MPs pretend to accept a lot of nonsense for sake of a quiet life, pretend to believe their leader meant X when they said Y, or were simply mistaken, but sometimes you just have to cry foul.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    IshmaelZ said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.

    Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
    Short lived relief rally after Sunak handout. Easily time for the sugar rush to subside between now and then. chill.
    But point is, at this moment, tonight, you just don’t know 😃
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Oooh ... Elliot Colburn has now called for Johnson to resign.

    Why 'ooooh'? Because he's a new Surrey MP. The blue wall is turning yellow and they're right to be worried.

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-former-culture-secretary-latest-tory-mp-to-call-for-boris-johnson-to-resign-12624248

    The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
    You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.

    This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
    Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too.
    All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone.
    Imo.
    Mole Valley.
    Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold
    I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
    It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.

    Are you local?
    No, im not.
    60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole)
    I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
    Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Farooq said:

    FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
    Hampden Park
    Wednesday

    Scotland 11/8
    Ukraine 13/5

    If y'all hate Liverpool fans, wait til Scotland fans start singing "Yes Sir I Can Bucha" before kickoff
    In one of my spasms of insomnia I listened to the World Service fitbaw prog last week. Pat Nevin insists that Scottish fans have been learning the words to the Ukrainian national anthem so they can sing along.
    IN UKRAINIAN!
    Hope it is a classic, booming soviet style anthem, those can be great. And if they are relatively speedy it'll be hard for thousands to enunciate it so well that any mispronounciation is picked up. Fair dos if they can pull that off though.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    'Consensus is that the trickle of letters is becoming a steady stream'

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642

    It's the members wot did it

    Heard that one before, but I suppose eventually the boy who cried wolf did so legitimately.
    suppose?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Scott_xP said:

    Consensus seems to be the 'trickle' of letters is becoming a 'steady stream'.
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642

    Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.

    But no, surely we'd have heard.

    So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited May 2022
    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    ping said:

    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar

    Is 0-5% 20/1?

    Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.

    I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
    They got 7.4% in 2017, which felt like their floor given the way Labour hoovered up the non-Tory vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.

    [snip]

    Yes, it is a very lawyerly analysis but he applies the wrong test. He's considering it as though it were a criminal trial and the test was 'beyond reasonable doubt'. Even on that test, he's being ultra-generous to Boris, given that the various statements to the House were made after allegations had been made, and the PM should have taken great care to inform himself properly before giving the House blanket assurances that no rules had been broken. Given what we now know, is it conceivable that any person of integrity could possibly have made those statements having taken such care?
    Of course not.

    Boris lacks integrity.
    That feels like when someone has to write an official report and bland language disguises utterly damning opinion.

    Eg

    'Your view does not withstand reasonable analysis' for 'You are insane'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Scott_xP said:

    Consensus seems to be the 'trickle' of letters is becoming a 'steady stream'.
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642

    Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.

    But no, surely we'd have heard.

    So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
    I would remove 'maybe' from your last sentence as I have little doubt the coming together with mps and their constituents over the jubilee party season is going to shake them rigid
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    edited May 2022
    Considering the header; I think the reality is that both of the people will have had quite mixed records. Bob Neill is one of our wiser politicians - but was still part of a political project that has ruined the justice system, ie the coalition government (2010-2015). Something in me also has more respect for the police than lawyers, going in to the police is generally a more difficult, dangerous and lower paid path. I don't understand how anyone in the police would want to deal with politicians; no amount of money would convince me to do a job like that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited May 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Consensus seems to be the 'trickle' of letters is becoming a 'steady stream'.
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642

    Why is the trickle becoming a stream after the Gray Report and Keir Starmer's attack were called damp squibs in the media? My guess is the 1922. After Sue Gray's *interim* report, Boris gave a contrite apology in the Commons but later that day was said to have given a barnstorming performance to Conservative backbenchers. I wonder if he repeated the same sorry/not sorry thing, but this time MPs have seen the evidence.

    But no, surely we'd have heard.

    So maybe it is simply MPs hearing from constituents back home during the recess, and also on the doorstep if campaigning in the by-election.
    The reports I read were that he made a couple of minutes of apologies at the 1922. Then half an hour of jokes about it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Oooh ... Elliot Colburn has now called for Johnson to resign.

    Why 'ooooh'? Because he's a new Surrey MP. The blue wall is turning yellow and they're right to be worried.

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-former-culture-secretary-latest-tory-mp-to-call-for-boris-johnson-to-resign-12624248

    The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
    You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.

    This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
    Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too.
    All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone.
    Imo.
    Mole Valley.
    Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold
    I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
    It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.

    Are you local?
    No, im not.
    60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole)
    I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
    Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
    Will watch with interest then!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    kle4 said:

    We should stop bringing up the Henriques report and similar issues, after all that is the Police's approach to the criticism of them in them.

    Well I shan't stop doing so.

    So there!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    letter to phatboi

    Dear Sir Geoffrey

    thank you for your letter of 20 january in which you said that you were awaiting the final Gray report and the Prime Minister's subsequent statement to the House.

    I intended to write to you at length on the situation now that those two things have happened. Fortunately your colleague Jeremy Wright has made a statement (link below) which says more eloquently than I could everything I have to say on the subject, with the minor caveat that he is over generous to the PM both on the applicable standard of proof and as to whether that standard has been met, given that the charge is not that of lying to the House, but more generally that of misleading it.

    https://www.jeremywright.org.uk/news/prime-minister-may-2022

    I hope that you will agree with me that the time has come to take all necessary steps to ensure that the PM is removed from office, and look forward to hearing that you have submitted a letter to the 1922 committee.

    https://www.jeremywright.org.uk/news/prime-minister-may-2022

    love ishmael x
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
    The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    I would rejoin the day Boris goes
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Heathener said:

    Je suis la première

    de quel pays?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Pagan2 said:

    When’s Crossover?

    NOM 1.82
    Con Maj 3.85
    Lab Maj 4.6

    For maximum fun we need a situation whereby

    Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
    I shall certainly look forward to all the types who bleated continuously that 'we voted as one country' re. Brexit having it cast back viciously at them.
    We did vote as one country for brexit one referendum. Situation for government is different as the SNP don't vote in the uk parliament on english only matters.

    So either the conservatives are the prima facie government for the uk but the labour alliance is the government for the uk

    or

    SNP decide that rule no longer applies and get significant push back from the not scots when they vote for things that don't affect their consituents.

    Either way will be entertaining don't care much which
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    I would rejoin the day Boris goes
    I was never a member and would not become one. But I would at least start to consider supporting the Tories if Johnson was gone. They would be back in the mix like the other parties. That is an impossibility for me as long as he is the leader.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Boris and his government are tax and spenders. They have moved us to highest tax take for 70 years. They promised no tax rises, but invented a new tax and people now feeling it in their pockets - words v actions. Why would 19% think these Tories of all people advocate for lower taxes, all the hard evidence is explicitly otherwise?

    Tories will be known as the high tax big splurge party for years to come after this stint in power.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
    The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
    Why direction? This is post Sunak splashing the cash.
    To which there are two responses. Thanks very much. Con up 5.
    Finally did what the opposition said. Not before time. Captain Foresight. Lab up 3.

    May be an outlier too. But it isn't an illogical reaction to events.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,813
    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    I would rejoin the day Boris goes
    I was never a member and would not become one. But I would at least start to consider supporting the Tories if Johnson was gone. They would be back in the mix like the other parties. That is an impossibility for me as long as he is the leader.
    That's where I was back in about December, but these MPs have shown themselves to be cowards and I'm definitely not voting for them at least until they've had a taste of opposition. The last six months have been really bad.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited May 2022

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Oooh ... Elliot Colburn has now called for Johnson to resign.

    Why 'ooooh'? Because he's a new Surrey MP. The blue wall is turning yellow and they're right to be worried.

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-former-culture-secretary-latest-tory-mp-to-call-for-boris-johnson-to-resign-12624248

    The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
    You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.

    This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
    Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too.
    All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone.
    Imo.
    Mole Valley.
    Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold
    I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
    It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.

    Are you local?
    No, im not.
    60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole)
    I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
    Mole Valley is a LD council and was before the locals. I'm not predicting they will win it on current polling I will admit. It was a target in the last election. It was de-targeted when things went pear shaped. Its standing is below Guildford but it is above Woking, although Woking's results in the local elections may change that. The gains and losses pretty much cancel one another out. The LDs gain some good and bad bits, but equally they lose some good and bad bits. I haven't done any detailed analysis of the numbers gained and lost I must admit, but most I speak to think it is pretty neutral. It has been up and coming for the LDs. I also suspect that Sir Paul Beresford will stand down next time.
    Will watch with interest then!
    I think a lot will depend upon whether it is targeted and that will depend upon poll ratings and they are not good enough yet I suspect. Because of Guildford, Woking, SW Surrey, Esher and Walton so close there won't be much incoming help. I suspect Esher and Walton, followed by Guildford will be 1 and 2. Once I would have been in the position of knowing this stuff, but now I am out of that loop I can freely speculating knowing that my view may well be complete twaddle.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    That is the highest Tory share for absolute yonks.

    Got to call into question Libdem chances in the by election.
    Short lived relief rally after Sunak handout. Easily time for the sugar rush to subside between now and then. chill.
    But point is, at this moment, tonight, you just don’t know 😃
    Spooky, isn't it, but I find lots of future stuff is like that. My point is there's time to do the sums and work out that £600 is not very much money anyway, 600 minus say 2,000 even less so

    My next worry is this: interest rate rises = mortgage hikes = evictions. sunak is now so boxed in to a Help for Hardworking Families corner that I think he will find himself offering people monthly subs to make up the difference, and that's not pocket change like a £600 one-off, it's serious wedge every month. That, and the house price crash if it happens, will make mincemeat of him
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Doubt very much if Carrie will agree to that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Farooq said:

    HUGE poll bounce for the Tories in the Redfield! 🫣

    HYUFD will slither in any moment to talk it up.

    Labour + Green on 48% is also a standout from that. Remarkable.
    Add Libdem it’s 58. Reform squeezed.

    HY has every right to talk it up. It’s only a rouge poll if other polls this week are quite different to it.
    Boris Approval rockets up 5 in this poll too.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Smarkets 1.76 on him losing a VOC if he faces one in 2022. Money back if he doesn't face one in 2022.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    https://t.co/wiDtYk7HVA https://t.co/XlOnUVM1u4

    Ummmmmmmmm ??

    Highest Tory score since 3rd April - suggest this is a slight outlier high straight after a slight outlier low, making it look like a big gain.
    The magnitude of the movements and direction of movement look absurd, but I don't know if the absolute numbers are reasonable so don't know if this poll looks duff or the one before it is duff. Your comments make sense. Don't know if you are right though.
    Why direction? This is post Sunak splashing the cash.
    To which there are two responses. Thanks very much. Con up 5.
    Finally did what the opposition said. Not before time. Captain Foresight. Lab up 3.

    May be an outlier too. But it isn't an illogical reaction to events.
    OK, I hadn't thought of that. In my mind it is still partygate, but that might be my bias whereas others may have focused on the windfall tax and free money so what you said makes complete sense. Big swings though.

    If you think 'partygate', like I was possibly incorrectly doing, then I would expect the Tory numbers to go down and the LDs popularity to go up (although their number to stay neutral or slightly down as this was a high number in the first place).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    :(
    In general, I think the Guardian has a Russia problem. He's not the only one. That rancid bag of wet shit Seamus Milne was at it a few years ago too.
    I don't think it's generalised. Jenkins' approach as a columnist is to adopt a contrary position - he does it on everything and is usually wrong. I find him pretty tiresome as a columnist to be honest. Other Guardian columnists have been very robust in their support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia.
    It could be another sign of growing old and weary but I have little appetite these days for "controversialist" punditry. It's easy to do, being usually trite bollox, and it's ... I dunno just rather unnecessary. Intrusive too, since I never asked for it.

    Whenever I come across this type of thing I tend to intuit an "irl" situation where some bore on his 4th or 5th is banging on in "colourful" vein convinced he's being provocative and stimulating. Or of course it could be a "wind up". Ho fucking ho.

    Piers Morgan Derangement Syndrome? Yes, if you like.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Boris and his government are tax and spenders. They have moved us to highest tax take for 70 years. They promised no tax rises, but invented a new tax and people now feeling it in their pockets - words v actions. Why would 19% think these Tories of all people advocate for lower taxes, all the hard evidence is explicitly otherwise?

    Tories will be known as the high tax big splurge party for years to come after this stint in power.
    it's even better thyan that, the new tax is actually just a figleaf to disguise higher borrowing
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    I doubt that really matters. If he loses a VOC he is out in due course. The clouds would mostly lift.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Reflecting again.
    One poll. Etc..
    That's a shocking poll for the government.
    7% behind after shovelling hundreds of pounds at folk. I know things take a while to filter through. But there aren't many other bullets to fire.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    dixiedean said:

    Reflecting again.
    One poll. Etc..
    That's a shocking poll for the government.
    7% behind after shovelling hundreds of pounds at folk. I know things take a while to filter through. But there aren't many other bullets to fire.

    Bullets to fire? Please don't give BJ ideas.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    ping said:

    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar

    Is 0-5% 20/1?

    Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.

    I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
    It will be harder to squeeze the LD without the threat of a barking Marxist as PM.

    More generally, I wonder if the upsides of rivals to Johnson are strong enough to compensate for his own upside among the easily impressed and the hardline Brexiters. The only unambiguously close performer would be Sunak, and only because he borrows a few extra tens of billions of pounds a year to spend on stuff for voters.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,394
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    Yeah, I've got his church book.

    He comes across as a mandarin-type, into "managed decline", UK should know its place, who cares if Scotland leaves, etc. And a Kissinger rather than a Soros take on the current conflict. Sometimes these "realists" prove to be pretty unrealistic in practise.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    On the poll, if it's accurate then regardless of the Tory 36%, Labour at 43% is more interesting. I've long argued that Labour needs to be polling consistently in the 40s to win power. A poll like 38/31 may have the same Labour lead, but the Labour score simply isn't high enough. Today's is encouraging.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Doubt very much if Carrie will agree to that.
    she may have moved on anyway
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
This discussion has been closed.