I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
There's certainly no time to wash the image the walls of Downing street being soiled by late night revellers or of cleaners arriving in the morning to remove the detritus of the night before.
Quite incredible really. Such a massive event and the official tickets look like some spotty teenager knocked them out in their bedroom in 10 minutes. Not that the hologram ones can't be faked and the QR code that can be scanned is obviously the important factor these days, but still....and the reports that official press and player tickets didn't even scan after multiple attempts.
I have been to £20 gigs with more official looking tickets.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
The Baltics are not f*cking around it seems As the EU struggles to agree on an oil ban, Latvia’s Prime Minister says member countries must not get “bogged down” in their own personal interests.
Krisjanis Karins, who arrived earlier at the European Council, said it was important to remember the “big picture”.
Ukrainians were fighting for their independence and European values, he said.
The West, he suggested, must “starve Russia” of the funds to continue its war.
Latvia has been heavily dependent on Russian energy but it’s moving away from that, Mr Karins added.
“It’s going to cost us more. But it’s only money. The Ukrainians are paying with their lives.
“I also think we should sanction gas,” he told reporters.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
Quite incredible really. Such a massive event and the official tickets look like some spotty teenager knocked them out in their bedroom in 10 minutes. Not that the hologram ones can't be faked and the QR code that can be scanned is obviously the important factor these days, but still....and the reports that official press and player tickets didn't even scan after multiple attempts.
I have been to £20 gigs with more official looking tickets.
The hologram ones can't be *easily* faked. Given enough time, you get pretty good counterfeit holograms these days.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
No chance - your average Tory MP has less backbone than a jellyfish
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.
Astonishing
Speaking as someone who has always favoured higher taxes and better services (the Scandinavian model), I think it's hilarious.
What actually if there was one measure to judge things on makes you a left wing politician? For me, what makes me a right wing voter is a belief that the state should be small. Fingers out all round.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
But isn't that a contradiction? If the sample is full of politically aware people, then surely they are exactly the people who do know about the measures?
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON
Con: 30 Lab: 22 LibD: 9 SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
You seriously think that if Putin seized all of eastern and Central Europe, presumably including Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Czechia, Croatia, Austria, etc etc etc, ie half of the EU and NATO, that wouldn’t make “a blind bit of difference to Britain’s interests”?
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON
Con: 30 Lab: 22 LibD: 9 SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
RN and Zemmour seem to be solidly on 25-26% for the Legislative elections, and look set to eclipse Les Republicains on the Right.,
Where are you getting that from? The latest seems to be Left 30, Centre (Macron) 26, RN 19, LR (moderate right) 11. As the centre is more transfer-friendly, the prediction for seats after the second round is
Centre 295-335 Left 155-185 LR 50-70 RN 14-34
which looks like a solid majority for Macron's party?
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
But isn't that a contradiction? If the sample is full of politically aware people, then surely they are exactly the people who do know about the measures?
Opinion polls are surely meant (after adjustment) to reflect the likelihood of votes at the next GE. So I think their sample changed its mood, but the basis for that sample also changed.
Nothing that Sunak announced makes any sense. He's awful as a chancellor, and he's awful precisely because politics is his aim rather than economics. We really can't go on having these really hopeless charlatans in charge of our economic affairs. Brown was clearly the worst of the bunch.
The United Kingdom will ensure that Roman Abramovich does not benefit from the sale of Chelsea Football Club in any way, and that the proceeds of such a sale are used for humanitarian purposes in Ukraine.
The United Kingdom will ensure that Roman Abramovich does not benefit from the sale of Chelsea Football Club in any way, and that the proceeds of such a sale are used for humanitarian purposes in Ukraine.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON
Con: 30 Lab: 22 LibD: 9 SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
Good polls should produce outliers - it’s when they don’t you should worry - in any case it’s a sub sample so the MOE is large.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON
Con: 30 Lab: 22 LibD: 9 SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
If you don’t like it, you can have another one Thursday. I suspect the Tories won’t drop full five though.
Labour 43% (+3) Conservative 36% (+5) Liberal Democrat 10% (-4) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON
Con: 30 Lab: 22 LibD: 9 SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
If you don’t like it, you can have another one Thursday. I suspect the Tories won’t drop full five though.
And this, headlined ‘Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’’:
Both from the Times via apple news.
Now if these come to pass, that’ll see the Tories akin to a stepmum on a website hosting videos for those indulging in a touch of gentleman’s relaxation. Surely?
I don’t think blaming Russia, no matter how justified, will be enough. The article about Sterling doesn’t sound good - likens the UK economic outlook to the 70s. A quote says the BoE has lost credibility by refusing to acknowledge impact of Brexit. But ignore me if you want cos I know the square root of bugger all about economics.
But a poor economy, power cuts, CoL crisis. If it comes to pass, surely that’s the Tories done? Partygate could be just an appetiser.
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
You seriously think that if Putin seized all of eastern and Central Europe, presumably including Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Czechia, Croatia, Austria, etc etc etc, ie half of the EU and NATO, that wouldn’t make “a blind bit of difference to Britain’s interests”?
You’re a fucking lunatic
Yes, I really think that. That's not the same as staying I want it to happen. Historically, bits of Europe change hands all the time, between the Holy Roman Empire and the French, and blobs of Germany, and the Pope. It doesn't make much difference to Britain. We are an Island, a 'fortress built by Nature for herself against infection and the hand of war'.
And this, headlined ‘Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’’:
Both from the Times via apple news.
Now if these come to pass, that’ll see the Tories akin to a stepmum on a website hosting videos for those indulging in a touch of gentleman’s relaxation. Surely?
I don’t think blaming Russia, no matter how justified, will be enough. The article about Sterling doesn’t sound good - likens the UK economic outlook to the 70s. A quote says the BoE has lost credibility by refusing to acknowledge impact of Brexit. But ignore me if you want cos I know the square root of bugger all about economics.
But a poor economy, power cuts, CoL crisis. If it comes to pass, surely that’s the Tories done? Partygate could be just an appetiser.
This line about the £ being an “EM currency” has been trotted out since Brexit
The UK economy is looking a bit crocked, but this is true of economies all over the world. Even China
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
Is that a genuine "expect" or more of a "hope"?
No - I genuinely believe it is coming next week and would bet on it if I did bet
But my caveat is I am not suggesting anyone else does and if they do they risk losing money
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip
I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?
However, he is good on churches
He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:
Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.
With the Tugenhadt comments tonight, Johnson seems..done for? Matter of when really
Could you point me in the direction of these comments please?
Foreign Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat: "The PM put the governance of the UK at risk to a single, severe Covid outbreak. That is to say nothing of the lack of respect it showed for the British people or the Queen.
"I have made my position clear to those who need to hear it"
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it
I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.
The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere
This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it
I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.
The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere
This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal
Scholz is a c*nt
One of the reasons I voted for brexit was that it was obvious it wasnt a question of if the eu would break up so much as when it broke up. Too many totally divergent interests and frankly its better not to be in an exploding building but watching from the outside and I think it will blow up regardless of which way we voted on brexit.
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it
I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.
The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere
This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal
Scholz is a c*nt
I think it has to be 'no Russians' for a long time. No dogs, no Russians. No contracts with Russians. No visas to Russians. No holidays in Turkey for Russians.
Regulo 2 for 5 years, and then see how the stew looks.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
Muenchau is generally an anti-EU, pro-Brexit, anti-German Atlanticist. As of this morning he was still promoting a "Brexit of the entrepreneurs" in his newsletter and critiquing imperial units as a distraction from the true purpose of Brexit as a business-friendly bonfire of the regulations.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There’s none so blind as one who doesn’t want to see
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.
In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
Is that a genuine "expect" or more of a "hope"?
No - I genuinely believe it is coming next week and would bet on it if I did bet
But my caveat is I am not suggesting anyone else does and if they do they risk losing money
Right. Well you're on the inside so I'm lumping a tenner on it.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
More likely than any other outcome.
Depends how deep you go though in your chain of events.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.
In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
Personally, I don't consider it very commendable morally to be as casual as you are about the prospect of a nuclear conflict that could wipe out every man, woman and child on the planet. I also don't consider it very courageous to be part of a baying majority of commentors here who attack anyone who goes off the war drum message. Quite the opposite in fact.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.
In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
Personally, I don't consider it very commendable morally to be as casual as you are about the prospect of a nuclear conflict that could wipe out every man, woman and child on the planet. I also don't consider it very courageous to be part of a baying majority of commentors here who attack anyone who goes off the war drum message. Quite the opposite in fact.
I dont find it commendable to be an arse like you who goes it costs too much...its not affecting us as women are raped, men and children killed because its less inconvenient to yourself if you just ignore. You are a pissant apoligist for fascist scum. You would have been an ardent vichy supporter in france.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
No, my point was that people here were mocking the columnist's assertion that Ukraine didn't threaten Britain's strategical interests, and saying it hadn't 'aged well', when it was a simple statement of fact. You're arguing on a moral point, which is fine, but it's a different argument.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
No, my point was that people here were mocking the columnist's assertion that Ukraine didn't threaten Britain's strategical interests, and saying it hadn't 'aged well', when it was a simple statement of fact. Your arguing on a moral point, which is fine, but it's a different argument.
And you are still wrong letting Putin take ukraine absolutely threatens us because twats like you and jenkins will trot out the same arguments for poland, estonia, latvia, lithuania, moldova and before long france, germany and italy and spain and you will still be wittering on we have nothing to fear we are an island fortress. Then when he comes for britain just as hitler would you would have worn you fsb armband proudly no doubt.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Exactly, there are tons of scenarios that add up to that kind of implied probability. Boris is forgiven; new pandemic where every country falls in love with its leaders again; Boris borrows another few tens of billion quid per year. So one extra scenario is not much of a tip.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Exactly, there are tons of scenarios that add up to that kind of implied probability. Boris is forgiven; new pandemic where every country falls in love with its leaders again; Boris borrows another few tens of billion quid per year. So one extra scenario is not much of a tip.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h This poll average has been steady for a while now. Six points isn't enough mid-term to justify an opposition party thinking it's on course for victory. Not by a long chalk.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
Arguably the Eastern European countries are motivated by strategic expectations rather than just historical experience. This would go some way to explain East Germany: Whatever about parts of Poland or Lithuania, Russia poses zero threat of occupying Saxony. IIRC East Germany was the richest Communist country with very few resident Russians, far from a simple story of universal suffering arising from external oppression. There were plenty of East Germans who enforced the regime on each other by working with the Stasi or the captured civil society groups, and plenty others who thought the regime was by and large comparable to the West in its moral standing. Finally you have a large younger demographic with no experience of Communism but up to 30 years' experience of being an economic periphery. So it's quite different to a place like Estonia where the narrative of brutal occupation is more plausible, both about the past and in the future.
Comments
https://www.sportbible.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=70,format=jpeg,fit=contain,dpr=1/https://s3-images.sportbible.com/s3/content/6918d7995c8a564b0ebccbfb6daae464.png
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservative 36% (+5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 25 May
Labour at 1997
I have been to £20 gigs with more official looking tickets.
As the EU struggles to agree on an oil ban, Latvia’s Prime Minister says member countries must not get “bogged down” in their own personal interests.
Krisjanis Karins, who arrived earlier at the European Council, said it was important to remember the “big picture”.
Ukrainians were fighting for their independence and European values, he said.
The West, he suggested, must “starve Russia” of the funds to continue its war.
Latvia has been heavily dependent on Russian energy but it’s moving away from that, Mr Karins added.
“It’s going to cost us more. But it’s only money. The Ukrainians are paying with their lives.
“I also think we should sanction gas,” he told reporters.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61629260
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
It's the poster version below.
https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
I’ve just worked out that’s where Tbilisi is. It is the capital city of The Land of Green Ginger
It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC
They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
“For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins
Quite bleak
He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?
The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
'Ages away, only a fool ...', but does that sound good as a long range call?
Con: 30
Lab: 22
LibD: 9
SNP:32
Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
You’re a fucking lunatic
Centre 295-335
Left 155-185
LR 50-70
RN 14-34
which looks like a solid majority for Macron's party?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_legislative_election
EDIT: Ah, I see, you've added in 6% for Zemmour's party. But in terms of seats he's predicted to get zero.
Nothing that Sunak announced makes any sense. He's awful as a chancellor, and he's awful precisely because politics is his aim rather than economics. We really can't go on having these really hopeless charlatans in charge of our economic affairs. Brown was clearly the worst of the bunch.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club
But you are right, in ratings like this one and who best to manage growth in the economy, is where we should be looking.
The one being Boris Johnson.
And this, headlined ‘Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’’:
Both from the Times via apple news.
Now if these come to pass, that’ll see the Tories akin to a stepmum on a website hosting videos for those indulging in a touch of gentleman’s relaxation. Surely?
I don’t think blaming Russia, no matter how justified, will be enough. The article about Sterling doesn’t sound good - likens the UK economic outlook to the 70s. A quote says the BoE has lost credibility by refusing to acknowledge impact of Brexit. But ignore me if you want cos I know the square root of bugger all about economics.
But a poor economy, power cuts, CoL crisis. If it comes to pass, surely that’s the Tories done? Partygate could be just an appetiser.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/how-many-pounds-in-a-stone-try-our-weights-and-measures-quiz
I wonder how @CorrectHorseBattery and @MoonRabbit would fare?
The UK economy is looking a bit crocked, but this is true of economies all over the world. Even China
But my caveat is I am not suggesting anyone else does and if they do they risk losing money
"I have made my position clear to those who need to hear it"
I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.
The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere
This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal
Scholz is a c*nt
Regulo 2 for 5 years, and then see how the stew looks.
In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly
https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
https://order-order.com/2022/05/30/leaked-treasury-memo-warns-leaking-is-unacceptable/
Patrick O'Flynn
@oflynnsocial
·
2h
This poll average has been steady for a while now. Six points isn't enough mid-term to justify an opposition party thinking it's on course for victory. Not by a long chalk.
I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
I was laughing my head off at that. It must be so satisfying linking something like that.
https://cine-images.com/
we got some posters from there, the guys are super nice (or were) and they may be able to help if they don’t have it.