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The Policeman and The Lawyer – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    JonWC said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    I doubt that really matters. If he loses a VOC he is out in due course. The clouds would mostly lift.
    The CoL crisis will do for the Tories even if Johnson goes.

    If he goes they lose the next GE; if he stays they get annihilated.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/

    On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/

    He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/


    https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1531289886099132416
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Doubt very much if Carrie will agree to that.
    Is that still a consideration? Everyone here last night said she'd moved to France and changed her name to Galadrielle.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    Really?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/05/03/russia-just-threatened-to-destroy-ireland-and-britain-with-a-nuclear-tsunami/?sh=217323f732b6

    And what about the security of Europe?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,458

    Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/

    On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/

    He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/


    https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1531289886099132416

    If one reads the whole thread it's much more nuanced than the impression given by your selected extracts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited May 2022
    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    If there is any moisturiser which can sort that out be sure to let me know.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Two questions arise: 1) Why has Macron not gone to Kyiv? 2) Why has Paris not fought back more strongly against the developing narrative that Paris is a 1930s-style appeaser? 10/

    On the first question. Stubborness, partly. Macron was angry when @BorisJohnson went for what he was convinced were UK domestic, showing-off reasons. He said then that he would only go if there was something concrete to be gained 11/

    He is now stuck with that position. He doesn’t want to seem to bow to media/foreign pressure and look like a Johnny-went-lately 12/


    https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1531289886099132416

    If one reads the whole thread it's much more nuanced than the impression given by your selected extracts.
    In short, while the English cringe at the idea they're not on board with American foreign policy, the French positively revel in it, even if they all end up doing the same thing: the WFH war, massive aid to Ukraine but not actually fighting.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Really good piece Cyclefree, easier to shrug and ignore and concentrate on the roses but better imo to stay alert and angry. All this self-regarding, ethics-free mediocrity in public life might not have started with Boris Johnson becoming PM but, dearie me, it hasn't helped. Will some of the damage be reversible when he's retired to the cruise ships? This has to be the key question. Guess it depends on who comes next.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited May 2022
    Apparently there was tube strike in Paris, which meant the Liverpool fans had to go to an RER station instead.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    I would rejoin the day Boris goes
    I was never a member and would not become one. But I would at least start to consider supporting the Tories if Johnson was gone. They would be back in the mix like the other parties. That is an impossibility for me as long as he is the leader.
    That's where I was back in about December, but these MPs have shown themselves to be cowards and I'm definitely not voting for them at least until they've had a taste of opposition. The last six months have been really bad.
    I consider almost all MPs to be as bad as each other, with a few dozen exceptions on each side. They are all cowards concerned to a greater or lesser extent more with their own advancement than with the good of the country. But Johnson is, to my mind, almost uniquely unfit for High Office.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    The threat to food supplies and disruption to oil and gas is, in itself, far more serious a strategic threat to the UK and Europe than the Russian military threat. And it is very real, and indeed has already happened.

    Russia couldn't possibly sustain an occupation of a large area for any length of time - they simply don't have the resources - but by hammering Ukraine and their own fuel extraction industry they have unleashed economic chaos that they may consider a decent second prize.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

    Constipation, concussion, detoxify — he's phoning in these mixed metaphors.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    There's certainly no time to wash the image the walls of Downing street being soiled by late night revellers or of cleaners arriving in the morning to remove the detritus of the night before.
  • Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997
  • Keir Starmer (38%, +2) leads Boris Johnson (33%, -1) by 5% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:
    Quite incredible really. Such a massive event and the official tickets look like some spotty teenager knocked them out in their bedroom in 10 minutes. Not that the hologram ones can't be faked and the QR code that can be scanned is obviously the important factor these days, but still....and the reports that official press and player tickets didn't even scan after multiple attempts.

    I have been to £20 gigs with more official looking tickets.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Labour 11 short of a majority re electoral calculus even on those figures
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,116

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

    Constipation, concussion, detoxify — he's phoning in these mixed metaphors.
    The mistake was doing it when we were suffering from a bad case of haemorrhoids and anal fissures, metaphorically speaking.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    edited May 2022

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble
    Having a shit, a baby, a laugh, a fit, a barbecue, a shower ... seems the point of Brexit is best explained by "creative" imagery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    The Baltics are not f*cking around it seems

    As the EU struggles to agree on an oil ban, Latvia’s Prime Minister says member countries must not get “bogged down” in their own personal interests.

    Krisjanis Karins, who arrived earlier at the European Council, said it was important to remember the “big picture”.

    Ukrainians were fighting for their independence and European values, he said.

    The West, he suggested, must “starve Russia” of the funds to continue its war.

    Latvia has been heavily dependent on Russian energy but it’s moving away from that, Mr Karins added.

    “It’s going to cost us more. But it’s only money. The Ukrainians are paying with their lives.

    “I also think we should sanction gas,” he told reporters.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61629260
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    If there is any moisturiser which can sort that out be sure to let me know.
    Do you moisturise at all, Stocky?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    tlg86 said:
    Quite incredible really. Such a massive event and the official tickets look like some spotty teenager knocked them out in their bedroom in 10 minutes. Not that the hologram ones can't be faked and the QR code that can be scanned is obviously the important factor these days, but still....and the reports that official press and player tickets didn't even scan after multiple attempts.

    I have been to £20 gigs with more official looking tickets.
    The hologram ones can't be *easily* faked. Given enough time, you get pretty good counterfeit holograms these days.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Has anyone else read the children’s classic The Land of Green Ginger?

    I’ve just worked out that’s where Tbilisi is. It is the capital city of The Land of Green Ginger



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

    I've heard worst analogies, to be fair.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    No chance - your average Tory MP has less backbone than a jellyfish
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Speaking as someone who has always favoured higher taxes and better services (the Scandinavian model), I think it's hilarious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    Is that a genuine "expect" or more of a "hope"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Speaking as someone who has always favoured higher taxes and better services (the Scandinavian model), I think it's hilarious.
    I hope we're not going to get elected on a radical "shrink the state" mandate. :smile:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Speaking as someone who has always favoured higher taxes and better services (the Scandinavian model), I think it's hilarious.
    What actually if there was one measure to judge things on makes you a left wing politician? For me, what makes me a right wing voter is a belief that the state should be small. Fingers out all round.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Tories at 2010
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    kinabalu said:

    Farooq said:

    Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which party do Britons associate with the following characteristics:

    Advocates for lower taxes?

    Conservative Party 19%
    Labour Party 36%
    Both 8%
    Neither 18%


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1530579783100379136

    Amazing

    32% of Conservative voters think the Conservatives are the party of low tax, but 28% of them think Labour is.

    Astonishing

    Speaking as someone who has always favoured higher taxes and better services (the Scandinavian model), I think it's hilarious.
    I hope we're not going to get elected on a radical "shrink the state" mandate. :smile:
    An odd conjunction of posts :)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest leader approval ratings from @OpiniumResearch:

    @EdwardJDavey - net plus 2 (19%/17%)
    @Keir_Starmer - net minus 6 (30%/36%)
    @RishiSunak - net minus 14 (28%/42%)
    @BorisJohnson - net minus 30 (27%/56%)*

    Really surprising that Sunak hasn't had a bounce, after almost universally favourable reception to his giveaway mini-budget.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Tories at 2010
    No Tory poll leads for 5 months and 24 days...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Omnium said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
    But isn't that a contradiction? If the sample is full of politically aware people, then surely they are exactly the people who do know about the measures?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,458
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Tories at 2010
    Yes. But not Labour (29% in 2010 cf. 43% in this one).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    Tories on 36% seems rather high.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Tories at 2010
    Ten past 8 tonite? Whaaaaaaaaat?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Keir Starmer (38%, +2) leads Boris Johnson (33%, -1) by 5% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Given how uniquely awful, by common consensus, the incumbent is, that's quite disappointing for the challenger.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    Tories at 2010
    Con 2010 vs Lab 1997. So if it plays out in the middle that's a Lab seat total of 338 - Lab majority of (say) 30.

    'Ages away, only a fool ...', but does that sound good as a long range call?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON

    Con: 30
    Lab: 22
    LibD: 9
    SNP:32

    Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON

    Con: 30
    Lab: 22
    LibD: 9
    SNP:32

    Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
    If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited May 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Not much optimism in France:

    Cluster 17 poll: 'Will Emmanuel Macron's second term be better, similar or worse than the first?'

    Worse: 44%
    Similar: 28%
    Better: 15%
    Don't know: 13%


    image

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1531242017086394371

    RN and Zemmour seem to be solidly on 25-26% for the Legislative elections, and look set to eclipse Les Republicains on the Right.,
    Where are you getting that from? The latest seems to be Left 30, Centre (Macron) 26, RN 19, LR (moderate right) 11. As the centre is more transfer-friendly, the prediction for seats after the second round is

    Centre 295-335
    Left 155-185
    LR 50-70
    RN 14-34

    which looks like a solid majority for Macron's party?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_legislative_election

    EDIT: Ah, I see, you've added in 6% for Zemmour's party. But in terms of seats he's predicted to get zero.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    I really don't see that enough people even know about the measures to make such a difference. Whoever the pollster is they are massively overweight in the politically aware.
    But isn't that a contradiction? If the sample is full of politically aware people, then surely they are exactly the people who do know about the measures?
    Opinion polls are surely meant (after adjustment) to reflect the likelihood of votes at the next GE. So I think their sample changed its mood, but the basis for that sample also changed.

    Nothing that Sunak announced makes any sense. He's awful as a chancellor, and he's awful precisely because politics is his aim rather than economics. We really can't go on having these really hopeless charlatans in charge of our economic affairs. Brown was clearly the worst of the bunch.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    With the Tugenhadt comments tonight, Johnson seems..done for? Matter of when really
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The United Kingdom will ensure that Roman Abramovich does not benefit from the sale of Chelsea Football Club in any way, and that the proceeds of such a sale are used for humanitarian purposes in Ukraine.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Applicant said:

    Keir Starmer (38%, +2) leads Boris Johnson (33%, -1) by 5% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

    Given how uniquely awful, by common consensus, the incumbent is, that's quite disappointing for the challenger.
    Except that it’s often hard for opposition leaders to even manage it despite their Party well ahead?

    But you are right, in ratings like this one and who best to manage growth in the economy, is where we should be looking.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    The United Kingdom will ensure that Roman Abramovich does not benefit from the sale of Chelsea Football Club in any way, and that the proceeds of such a sale are used for humanitarian purposes in Ukraine.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club/unilateral-declaration-regarding-the-sale-of-chelsea-football-club

    We will check the small print on that one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON

    Con: 30
    Lab: 22
    LibD: 9
    SNP:32

    Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
    If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
    Good polls should produce outliers - it’s when they don’t you should worry - in any case it’s a sub sample so the MOE is large.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON

    Con: 30
    Lab: 22
    LibD: 9
    SNP:32

    Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
    If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
    If you don’t like it, you can have another one Thursday. I suspect the Tories won’t drop full five though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (29 May):

    Labour 43% (+3)
    Conservative 36% (+5)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
    Green 5% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (–)

    Changes +/- 25 May

    Labour at 1997

    That's very interesting, as it's I think the first wholly post-Sunak-package poll. The Tory bounce is substantial, as expected, but the parallel Labour bounce perhaps reflects the public starting to focus on the national choice being one or the other - I don't see any other reason why the LibDems should have suddenly dropped heavily.
    SNP down to 3 as well. Yes of course these are tiny numbers and MOE and all the rest

    It is quite rare to see them on 3 however? IIRC

    They usually bounce around between 4 and 5
    SCOTTISH TORY SURGE OUTLIER KLAXON

    Con: 30
    Lab: 22
    LibD: 9
    SNP:32

    Which rather suggests the GB figure somewhat flatters the Conservatives.
    If that figure is representative of the reliability of the poll as whole, it's more unreliable than a Cummings explanation for breaking lockdown.
    If you don’t like it, you can have another one Thursday. I suspect the Tories won’t drop full five though.
    I really, really want them to drop one. Just one.

    The one being Boris Johnson.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,492
    Just seen this:


    And this, headlined ‘Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’’:


    Both from the Times via apple news.

    Now if these come to pass, that’ll see the Tories akin to a stepmum on a website hosting videos for those indulging in a touch of gentleman’s relaxation. Surely?

    I don’t think blaming Russia, no matter how justified, will be enough. The article about Sterling doesn’t sound good - likens the UK economic outlook to the 70s. A quote says the BoE has lost credibility by refusing to acknowledge impact of Brexit. But ignore me if you want cos I know the square root of bugger all about economics.

    But a poor economy, power cuts, CoL crisis. If it comes to pass, surely that’s the Tories done? Partygate could be just an appetiser.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,116
    As for current Gmt dead cats/live squirrels, have been trying this fairly easy quiz: got 15/18 myself.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/how-many-pounds-in-a-stone-try-our-weights-and-measures-quiz

    I wonder how @CorrectHorseBattery and @MoonRabbit would fare?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ...


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Applicant said:

    ...


    Think that is a rare miss from Matt...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    With the Tugenhadt comments tonight, Johnson seems..done for? Matter of when really

    Could you point me in the direction of these comments please?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Leon said:

    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril

    Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,874

    Applicant said:

    ...


    Think that is a rare miss from Matt...
    I love it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    You seriously think that if Putin seized all of eastern and Central Europe, presumably including Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Czechia, Croatia, Austria, etc etc etc, ie half of the EU and NATO, that wouldn’t make “a blind bit of difference to Britain’s interests”?

    You’re a fucking lunatic
    Yes, I really think that. That's not the same as staying I want it to happen. Historically, bits of Europe change hands all the time, between the Holy Roman Empire and the French, and blobs of Germany, and the Pope. It doesn't make much difference to Britain. We are an Island, a 'fortress built by Nature for herself against infection and the hand of war'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Just seen this:


    And this, headlined ‘Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’’:


    Both from the Times via apple news.

    Now if these come to pass, that’ll see the Tories akin to a stepmum on a website hosting videos for those indulging in a touch of gentleman’s relaxation. Surely?

    I don’t think blaming Russia, no matter how justified, will be enough. The article about Sterling doesn’t sound good - likens the UK economic outlook to the 70s. A quote says the BoE has lost credibility by refusing to acknowledge impact of Brexit. But ignore me if you want cos I know the square root of bugger all about economics.

    But a poor economy, power cuts, CoL crisis. If it comes to pass, surely that’s the Tories done? Partygate could be just an appetiser.

    This line about the £ being an “EM currency” has been trotted out since Brexit

    The UK economy is looking a bit crocked, but this is true of economies all over the world. Even China
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    kinabalu said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    Is that a genuine "expect" or more of a "hope"?
    No - I genuinely believe it is coming next week and would bet on it if I did bet

    But my caveat is I am not suggesting anyone else does and if they do they risk losing money
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    Whenever I consider taking a Simon Jenkins column seriously, I remember that he was “in charge” of the Millennium Dome, and I get a grip

    I did once get so riled by some asinine opinion he held I wrote him a floridly and absurdly abusive letter (nothing nasty, more deliberately crazy). Amazingly he wrote back in a very huffy tone, suggesting I was so stupid I should “stick to reading the Sun”. So a thin-skinned snob, as well?

    However, he is good on churches
    He thought Brexit would be cool though. It was akin to having a shit:

    Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. [...] Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

    I've heard worst analogies, to be fair.
    Having experienced both, Brexit is nothing like a baby.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973

    With the Tugenhadt comments tonight, Johnson seems..done for? Matter of when really

    Could you point me in the direction of these comments please?
    Foreign Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat: "The PM put the governance of the UK at risk to a single, severe Covid outbreak. That is to say nothing of the lack of respect it showed for the British people or the Queen.

    "I have made my position clear to those who need to hear it"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril

    Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
    The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it

    I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.

    The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere

    This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal

    Scholz is a c*nt
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Applicant said:

    ...


    Think that is a rare miss from Matt...
    I feel guilty now, it made me laugh.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril

    Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
    The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it

    I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.

    The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere

    This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal

    Scholz is a c*nt
    One of the reasons I voted for brexit was that it was obvious it wasnt a question of if the eu would break up so much as when it broke up. Too many totally divergent interests and frankly its better not to be in an exploding building but watching from the outside and I think it will blow up regardless of which way we voted on brexit.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril

    Not the west merely the eu and they dont really matter
    The EU is a sizeable chunk of “the West”, if not the majority of it

    I can now see a scenario where Putin wins in the E of Ukraine, consolidates his Azov coastline, keeps the Crimean corridor. He then sues for a temporary peace, Berlin and Paris eagerly agree because oil and idiocy, Kyiv totters.

    The EU will fracture badly. Why should Warsaw take orders from Brussels or Berlin? When they are actively aiding Warsaw’s mortal enemy? Poland will look to the Anglosphere

    This might be gratifying for Brits who want to be needed, but a totally divided EU and NATO is not ideal

    Scholz is a c*nt
    I think it has to be 'no Russians' for a long time. No dogs, no Russians. No contracts with Russians. No visas to Russians. No holidays in Turkey for Russians.

    Regulo 2 for 5 years, and then see how the stew looks.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Leon said:

    Wolfgang Munchau - generally pro-EU but trenchant - absolutely scathing about Germany and Ukraine


    “For anyone looking at this from the outside, especially from Ukraine, the game Scholz plays is pretty obvious. The German government is prioritising its commercial relations with Russia – as it always has done – while pretending to stand with Ukraine as part of the EU and Nato's consensus. It’s the old east-west double-game that Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-wins


    Quite bleak

    He’s also right to note the threat to the EU’s unity. Germany’s - and to a lesser extent France’s and Italy’s - appeasement of Putin is a greater menace to the EU than Brexit. Why should the Poles and Balts submit to Paris and Berlin even as they succour Putin?

    The West is approaching a moment of maximum peril

    Muenchau is generally an anti-EU, pro-Brexit, anti-German Atlanticist. As of this morning he was still promoting a "Brexit of the entrepreneurs" in his newsletter and critiquing imperial units as a distraction from the true purpose of Brexit as a business-friendly bonfire of the regulations.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There’s none so blind as one who doesn’t want to see
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022

    Applicant said:

    ...


    Think that is a rare miss from Matt...
    I feel guilty now, it made me laugh.
    My objection was as much it doesn't really work as a gag (imo) rather being close to the bone.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    ...
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    @Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.

    In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited May 2022
    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    kinabalu said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    Is that a genuine "expect" or more of a "hope"?
    No - I genuinely believe it is coming next week and would bet on it if I did bet

    But my caveat is I am not suggesting anyone else does and if they do they risk losing money
    Right. Well you're on the inside so I'm lumping a tenner on it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited May 2022
    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
    More likely than any other outcome.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.

    And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
    More likely than any other outcome.
    Depends how deep you go though in your chain of events.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Pagan2 said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.

    In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
    Personally, I don't consider it very commendable morally to be as casual as you are about the prospect of a nuclear conflict that could wipe out every man, woman and child on the planet. I also don't consider it very courageous to be part of a baying majority of commentors here who attack anyone who goes off the war drum message. Quite the opposite in fact.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Pagan2 said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    In 1938 we had a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land we had a moral mandate to stand up and say no more.

    In 2022 we have a european fascist dictator taking chunks of land....we have a moral mandate to stand up and say no more....pretty much everyone here whether left or right thinks that.....except you and one or two others though mainly the others have at least the figleaf of worrying about provoking ww3 whereas you....you just think Putin is being reasonable with his territorial ambitions....get a spine, get a moral compass and learn not to support fascists who believe rape murder and abduction are legitimate tools of statecraft
    Personally, I don't consider it very commendable morally to be as casual as you are about the prospect of a nuclear conflict that could wipe out every man, woman and child on the planet. I also don't consider it very courageous to be part of a baying majority of commentors here who attack anyone who goes off the war drum message. Quite the opposite in fact.
    I dont find it commendable to be an arse like you who goes it costs too much...its not affecting us as women are raped, men and children killed because its less inconvenient to yourself if you just ignore. You are a pissant apoligist for fascist scum. You would have been an ardent vichy supporter in france.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    MrEd said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    @Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
    Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
This discussion has been closed.