The Policeman and The Lawyer – politicalbetting.com
Two public servants: both in the autumn of their careers; both “Sirs“; both in the legislature; both facing important decisions. How are they approaching this and how are they being treated?
I was told by a Tory MP in the late 80's that the most important and powerful Conservative group within Westminster was not the 1922, but the Lodge. Be interested to know how much that has changed in 35 years.
@ydoethur You do realise that I can't get the vision out of my head following your comment this morning about my unintended double entendre about 'Boris' and 'tarmac being laid' don't you. You have much to answer for!
Cat Neilan @CatNeilan Rumour doing the rounds that the magic number has been reached but Brady waiting until after recess/jubilee to pull the trigger...
@ydoethur You do realise that I can't get the vision out of my head following your comment this morning about my unintended double entendre about 'Boris' and 'tarmac being laid' don't you. You have much to answer for!
I was told by a Tory MP in the late 80's that the most important and powerful Conservative group within Westminster was not the 1922, but the Lodge. Be interested to know how much that has changed in 35 years.
Its over for Johnson. The new party is the final straw. He will quit before the confidence vote once he gets the whips soundings. Gone by July. Election May 2023 after a money throwing budget. I have pronounced!
Cat Neilan @CatNeilan Rumour doing the rounds that the magic number has been reached but Brady waiting until after recess/jubilee to pull the trigger...
Cat Neilan @CatNeilan Rumour doing the rounds that the magic number has been reached but Brady waiting until after recess/jubilee to pull the trigger...
Wouldn't be at all surprised if the number has been reached, [maybe even with the help of some of Boris's supporters who want the vote out of the way before the by-elections].
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
I was told by a Tory MP in the late 80's that the most important and powerful Conservative group within Westminster was not the 1922, but the Lodge. Be interested to know how much that has changed in 35 years.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They are free to boo whatever they like, tho I find booing the anthem quite repellent, and the Queen (in the form of her grandson) basic bad manners. But there is an argument, which you employ, for saying this is part of a grand working class tradition of epatering les bourgeois and giving it the Rebel Yell
I'll let it pass.
But booing the sublime meditation on death and mortality, that is Abide With Me?
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
I don't know if they always boo it (like Citeh fans do)?
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
Theyll be burning books in case people be a learnin next. Theyre booing things because the things arent't Steven Gerrard with his wang out holding back a dog and screaming 'get it up ya' Football is depressing. I'm a Leeds fan, i should know
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
WTF is a kickball tournament doing having an anthem?
And what an anthem
Champions League Anthem lyrics
Ce sont les meilleures équipes Es sind die allerbesten Mannschaften The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Une grande réunion Eine grosse sportliche Veranstaltung The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Ils sont les meilleurs Sie sind die Besten These are the champions
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
Someone booed poor Camila Cabello, which I thought was very harsh.
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
WTF is a kickball tournament doing having an anthem?
And what an anthem
Champions League Anthem lyrics
Ce sont les meilleures équipes Es sind die allerbesten Mannschaften The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Une grande réunion Eine grosse sportliche Veranstaltung The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Ils sont les meilleurs Sie sind die Besten These are the champions
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
It's a rip off of Zadok the Priest by Handel. Booooooo
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
The English "translation" somehow manages to be even more cringe
They are the best teams They are the best teams The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
A big meeting A great sporting event The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
They are the best They are the best These are the champions
The master The best The champions
The "composer" has spoken proudly of his work:
"The anthem was composed by Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music, in the style of the famous 18th-century musician George Frederic Handel. It is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields chorus, both of which are based in London.
""The idea of the Champions League was to make the game beautiful again and the music had to reflect this quality," Britten told UEFA.tv of the composition."
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Plus, once they get the 54 letters it will concentrate minds: it's now or never.
The consensus in the winter was that the votes would be easier to get than the letters. I don't see why that would have changed.
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
I'm of a similar mind. I've thought for a while Boris would survive, but this feels too relentless. I'd say it's right now 60/40 that he gets VONC'd, and like you, I reckon if he gets VONCed that's it
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Does he lose outright or win narrowly in a way that proves untenable.
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
If he wins by a tiny margin do you think he will go?
The English "translation" somehow manages to be even more cringe
They are the best teams They are the best teams The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
A big meeting A great sporting event The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
They are the best They are the best These are the champions
The master The best The champions
The "composer" has spoken proudly of his work:
"The anthem was composed by Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music, in the style of the famous 18th-century musician George Frederic Handel. It is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields chorus, both of which are based in London.
""The idea of the Champions League was to make the game beautiful again and the music had to reflect this quality," Britten told UEFA.tv of the composition."
Amazed the poo-flinging, beauty-hating, hymn-booing Scousers have embarrassed themselves again. Amazed
I already apologised to Liverpool fans on the last thread
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
'They have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem...'
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
They booed Abide With Me too, but I think it's just a reflex. They booed the CL anthem on Saturday, too.
After what they'd experienced, I can understand booing the Champions League anthem!
WTF is a kickball tournament doing having an anthem?
And what an anthem
Champions League Anthem lyrics
Ce sont les meilleures équipes Es sind die allerbesten Mannschaften The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Une grande réunion Eine grosse sportliche Veranstaltung The main event
Die Meister Die Besten Les grandes équipes The champions
Ils sont les meilleurs Sie sind die Besten These are the champions
It's the debasing and bastardisation of Handel that really pisses me off. Guaranteed, after Charles's coronation, a million and one explainers/FAQs as to why the CL anthem was integral to proceedings?
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Does he lose outright or win narrowly in a way that proves untenable.
Lose outright. By enough. There will be plenty saying to his face "Shocking turn of events, PM. Of course I'll support you!" - and then voting to get rid.
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Yeh, but, no, but, yeh, but... there's a reshuffle coming and I might get a job.
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
If he wins by a tiny margin do you think he will go?
what, Boris?
I think you need a lie down. A skin of his teeth acquittal gives him 12 months under even less constraints than he is under now. you think, what, his innate sense of decency will prevent him taking advantage?
The English "translation" somehow manages to be even more cringe
They are the best teams They are the best teams The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
A big meeting A great sporting event The main event
The master The best The great teams The champions
They are the best They are the best These are the champions
The master The best The champions
The "composer" has spoken proudly of his work:
"The anthem was composed by Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music, in the style of the famous 18th-century musician George Frederic Handel. It is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields chorus, both of which are based in London.
""The idea of the Champions League was to make the game beautiful again and the music had to reflect this quality," Britten told UEFA.tv of the composition."
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Yeh, but, no, but, yeh, but... there's a reshuffle coming and I might get a job.
Yeh, but, no, but, yeh, but... there's a new PM coming, a lot of old dead wood cast aside - and I might get a job.
London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".
Her Westminster council was a big loss to Labour in local elex
Email this afternoon to constituents said that she "was incredulous and appalled in equal measure reading Ms Gray’s report".
Not clear whether she's submitted a letter to the '22
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.
This is exactly what I was getting at the other day and I still think its a direct result of taking bobbies off the beat. Not because bobbies on the beat causes a fall in crime however but because I think sitting in an office causes them to lose touch with what is really affecting people on the ground and be less willing to stir from their cosy central heated offices.
So we get the result that burglaries and car theft is deprioritised but things they can deal with while staying in their office like twitter hate they are all over.
Most I know won't even bother now contacting the police unless they need a crime number as it's a waste of time. Sooner or later however that is going to tip over from waste of time calling the police and into well the police wont protect us so we better protect ourselves territory
And, pace @YBarddCwsc's comment above, I am not praising their legal skills but their political decision which seems to be informed by their legal training.
I make no apologies for this.
The last paragraph in Jeremy Wright's statement ought to be required reading for every Tory MP.
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Does he lose outright or win narrowly in a way that proves untenable.
Lose outright. By enough. There will be plenty saying to his face "Shocking turn of events, PM. Of course I'll support you!" - and then voting to get rid.
Being betrayed by a bunch of liars is part of the necessary karma here.
But you've nailed the substantive point. And whilst it would have been better to turf him out before 500 councillors rode into the valley of career death, or (better still) when the pressure built up in the Spring, or (even better) when the scandals came to light, or (best of all) never have let a known serial liar near Number Ten in the first place, ASAP will do nicely thank you.
London MP Nickie Aiken calls on PM to submit himself to a VONC to "end speculation". She's told constituents that "events in Downing St during the pandemic has damaged the govt and Conservative Party".
Her Westminster council was a big loss to Labour in local elex
Email this afternoon to constituents said that she "was incredulous and appalled in equal measure reading Ms Gray’s report".
Not clear whether she's submitted a letter to the '22
OK, I'll go on the record. If there is a VONC - and I think there will be - I think Boris loses.
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
If he wins by a tiny margin do you think he will go?
what, Boris?
I think you need a lie down. A skin of his teeth acquittal gives him 12 months under even less constraints than he is under now. you think, what, his innate sense of decency will prevent him taking advantage?
I think you're right; I think that he will ignore it and carry on
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
And, pace @YBarddCwsc's comment above, I am not praising their legal skills but their political decision which seems to be informed by their legal training.
I make no apologies for this.
The last paragraph in Jeremy Wright's statement ought to be required reading for every Tory MP.
He goes at length into whether Boris lied and concludes that he can't be sure that he did. It will be interesting to see how this corresponds to the Beckett Committee report.
I seem to remember some kids' show in the late 70s (something like Crackerjack) where they had a spoof Darth Vader character called Daft Apeth.
Apeth of tar is an expression my wife occasionally uses. Northern I think.
I always understood it to be a ha'porth of tar as in half pennies worth of tar and akin to the a stitch in time saying.....for want of a half pennies worth of tar the ship was lost sort of thing
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
In the situation envisaged by Marquee Mark and myself I think he might actually go out canvassing! After all, in his mind he'd be a winner!
He goes at length into whether Boris lied and concludes that he can't be sure that he did. It will be interesting to see how this corresopnds to the Beckett Committee report.
When he said there was no party that was not a lie.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
Con Civil War is unlikely to increase differential turnout in your favour.
And, pace @YBarddCwsc's comment above, I am not praising their legal skills but their political decision which seems to be informed by their legal training.
I make no apologies for this.
The last paragraph in Jeremy Wright's statement ought to be required reading for every Tory MP.
He goes at length into whether Boris lied and concludes that he can't be sure that he did. It will be interesting to see how this corresopnds to the Beckett Committee report.
It's a very lawyerly analysis and he gives him the benefit of the doubt. It is how a judge would approach such a question.
But the final paragraph is the key one and what he says there is absolutely correct. Like Bob Neill he understands that trust is essential and that Boris has squandered it and must go.
I agree.
Mind you I thought that Boris should never have been made leader or PM.
And another critic: Dan Poulter says PM's assurances that no rules were broken "lack credibility" after Gray report - "to mislead Parliament cannot be tolerated".
"A minister who knowingly misleads Parliament should resign."
The LDs will spread their extra 1 or 2% about and win a handful more seats, yes. This isnt 2005 or 2010
You'll recall that I tipped the LibDems to win Woking council, which they did.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
Guildford probably and Raab possibly, Woking might be interesting too. All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone. Imo.
Mole Valley.
Won't exist. Most of it will be in Dorking, should be an easy hold I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
It will. Boundaries are changing but it is swings and roundabouts. The leafy stuff to the west is moving into Guildford (where I live), although they gain leafy stuff from elsewhere. Dorking itself is pretty LD. The Con stuff is in the countryside which is the stuff moving in and out.
Are you local?
No, im not. 60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole) I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Comments
I was told by a Tory MP in the late 80's that the most important and powerful Conservative group within Westminster was not the 1922, but the Lodge. Be interested to know how much that has changed in 35 years.
Cat Neilan
@CatNeilan
Rumour doing the rounds that the magic number has been reached but Brady waiting until after recess/jubilee to pull the trigger...
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1531266594470604805
He looks barely out of his teens
https://youtu.be/vNoPJqm3DAY?t=147
Woman tracks down her own stolen car before a police investigation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61592910
I have pronounced!
Surprise .... a lawyer writes a header in praise of another lawyer.
I have normally found lawyers speak very highly of themselves & their profession.
I am with Dick the Butcher & Jack Cade
My presumption that they were at fault was not surprising, after many years of Liverpool fans being yobs (we must remember Heysel even as we regret Hillsborough) plus they have now taken to booing the Queen, the anthem, and anything beautiful or noble. I do not like them
But my presumption they were to blame was largely if not entirely wrong in this instance. Hence, my apology to them. Ca suffit
Why 'ooooh'? Because he's a new Surrey MP. The blue wall is turning yellow and they're right to be worried.
https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-former-culture-secretary-latest-tory-mp-to-call-for-boris-johnson-to-resign-12624248
(Even if you continue to be rude to me )
Cluster 17 poll: 'Will Emmanuel Macron's second term be better, similar or worse than the first?'
Worse: 44%
Similar: 28%
Better: 15%
Don't know: 13%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1531242017086394371
I think Boris is a goner.
This isn't some mirage. I live here and Surrey is turning yellow.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-accusations-cronyism-martin-reynolds-new-role-1658914
Whilst the proper northern is a massive contraction of half penny worth, I can't help thinking "Apeth" sounds like a Swedish doom metal band.
I have long since suspected the affirmative.
All gone if BJ stays, perhaps just Guildford if hes gone.
Imo.
Zemmour sticks le oar in
Les socialistes sont des collabos Stade de France : Zemmour accuse des «racailles qui font la loi» en Seine-Saint-Denis, le socialiste... https://lefigaro.fr/politique/stade-de-france-zemmour-accuse-des-racailles-qui-font-la-loi-en-seine-saint-denis-le-socialiste-troussel-refute-20220530 via
@Le_Figaro
Not all bad then. A fine display of traditional working-class contempt for elite, if you ask me. A collective desire to cock-a-snook at a remote, out-of-touch ruling class. A longing for freedom. Thought that was your thing!
What do they boo that you hold to be beautiful or noble? Genuine question.
She is the only person I have ever heard use the phrase. Apeth. Pronounced "ape-eth"
Seems you are right:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/the-mystery-hour/what-is-a-daft-apeth/
I'll let it pass.
But booing the sublime meditation on death and mortality, that is Abide With Me?
Fuck them. Philistine Scouse c*nts
Theyre booing things because the things arent't Steven Gerrard with his wang out holding back a dog and screaming 'get it up ya'
Football is depressing. I'm a Leeds fan, i should know
And what an anthem
Champions League Anthem lyrics
Ce sont les meilleures équipes
Es sind die allerbesten Mannschaften
The main event
Die Meister
Die Besten
Les grandes équipes
The champions
Une grande réunion
Eine grosse sportliche Veranstaltung
The main event
Die Meister
Die Besten
Les grandes équipes
The champions
Ils sont les meilleurs
Sie sind die Besten
These are the champions
Philistines
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642
Every Tory MP has to ask themselves this: at the general election, what can I say on the doorsteps to those who say they will not vote for a liar? I have knocked on many thousand doors in my time and been faced with many issues. But on this one, I have no answer. You can say he has done a good job on Covid (up to a point) and has done a good job for Ukraine (more valid - but then wouldn't any Tory PM have done the same?). But asking the voters to give a liar a second term? Nah, it is an argument you just cannot make on the doorstep.
Once you as a Tory MP confront that central issue - you realise he is gone. And if he therefore has to go before the next election, then he might as well be gone now.
Hahahahahah
The English "translation" somehow manages to be even more cringe
They are the best teams
They are the best teams
The main event
The master
The best
The great teams
The champions
A big meeting
A great sporting event
The main event
The master
The best
The great teams
The champions
They are the best
They are the best
These are the champions
The master
The best
The champions
The "composer" has spoken proudly of his work:
"The anthem was composed by Tony Britten, a graduate of the Royal College of Music, in the style of the famous 18th-century musician George Frederic Handel. It is performed by the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra and sung by the Academy of Saint Martin in the Fields chorus, both of which are based in London.
""The idea of the Champions League was to make the game beautiful again and the music had to reflect this quality," Britten told UEFA.tv of the composition."
https://www.goal.com/en/news/champions-league-anthem-the-full-lyrics-for-footballs-most/12pnkyajpat5t11q3gtidrfak2
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/30/eu-forget-sanctions-russia-ukraine-food-energy-prices
The consensus in the winter was that the votes would be easier to get than the letters. I don't see why that would have changed.
It's the debasing and bastardisation of Handel that really pisses me off. Guaranteed, after Charles's coronation, a million and one explainers/FAQs as to why the CL anthem was integral to proceedings?
I think you need a lie down. A skin of his teeth acquittal gives him 12 months under even less constraints than he is under now. you think, what, his innate sense of decency will prevent him taking advantage?
"In the style of Handel". I always thought it was just a direct rip off.
At least Eurovision doesn't pretend to start with anything other than Charpentier (some might suggest this is the best music of the night).
I think its a hold on current boundaries anyway, not by miles but by several % points
Hampden Park
Wednesday
Scotland 11/8
Ukraine 13/5
Her Westminster council was a big loss to Labour in local elex
Email this afternoon to constituents said that she "was incredulous and appalled in equal measure reading Ms Gray’s report".
Not clear whether she's submitted a letter to the '22
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531296944978534403
Although there are some lovely penthouse suites in the Kremlin.
Are you local?
So we get the result that burglaries and car theft is deprioritised but things they can deal with while staying in their office like twitter hate they are all over.
Most I know won't even bother now contacting the police unless they need a crime number as it's a waste of time. Sooner or later however that is going to tip over from waste of time calling the police and into well the police wont protect us so we better protect ourselves territory
Yes - another lawyer. A former Attorney-General.
And, pace @YBarddCwsc's comment above, I am not praising their legal skills but their political decision which seems to be informed by their legal training.
I make no apologies for this.
The last paragraph in Jeremy Wright's statement ought to be required reading for every Tory MP.
LD 3/10
Con 11/4
100 bar
But you've nailed the substantive point. And whilst it would have been better to turf him out before 500 councillors rode into the valley of career death, or (better still) when the pressure built up in the Spring, or (even better) when the scandals came to light, or (best of all) never have let a known serial liar near Number Ten in the first place, ASAP will do nicely thank you.
He can't "submit himself to a VONC", they stopped that after Major did it. I suppose he could order the whole cabinet to send letters in, though
Lab 1/10
Con 10/1
100 bar
Boris Johnson to be Tory leader at next GE 2.04 (SBK)
After all, in his mind he'd be a winner!
NOM 1.82
Con Maj 3.85
Lab Maj 4.6
There were multiple parties...
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1531293325126512642
It's the members wot did it
Lib Dems+Labour+SNP = UK Majority but conservatives have an english majority. That will truly be time to break out the pop corn
But the final paragraph is the key one and what he says there is absolutely correct. Like Bob Neill he understands that trust is essential and that Boris has squandered it and must go.
I agree.
Mind you I thought that Boris should never have been made leader or PM.
"A minister who knowingly misleads Parliament should resign."
He says he won't be declaring if he's sent a letter.
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531300523751645184
60% of the current seat will be in the new Dotking seat, the rest split amongst three others - Guildfird, Epsom and Godalming. The Dorking and Horley seat even on current polling is predicted to be a safe hold (Dorking itself LD yes but a small part of the whole)
I mean if you've local knowledge beyond that, great, but LD gain Dorking woukd suggest they will be North of their highest seat totals ever and national polling currently says thats a preposterous proposition
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.