Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
No, my point was that people here were mocking the columnist's assertion that Ukraine didn't threaten Britain's strategical interests, and saying it hadn't 'aged well', when it was a simple statement of fact. You're arguing on a moral point, which is fine, but it's a different argument.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
So your point is that dictators should be given everything that they want because otherwise it would cost money.
No, my point was that people here were mocking the columnist's assertion that Ukraine didn't threaten Britain's strategical interests, and saying it hadn't 'aged well', when it was a simple statement of fact. Your arguing on a moral point, which is fine, but it's a different argument.
And you are still wrong letting Putin take ukraine absolutely threatens us because twats like you and jenkins will trot out the same arguments for poland, estonia, latvia, lithuania, moldova and before long france, germany and italy and spain and you will still be wittering on we have nothing to fear we are an island fortress. Then when he comes for britain just as hitler would you would have worn you fsb armband proudly no doubt.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Exactly, there are tons of scenarios that add up to that kind of implied probability. Boris is forgiven; new pandemic where every country falls in love with its leaders again; Boris borrows another few tens of billion quid per year. So one extra scenario is not much of a tip.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Exactly, there are tons of scenarios that add up to that kind of implied probability. Boris is forgiven; new pandemic where every country falls in love with its leaders again; Boris borrows another few tens of billion quid per year. So one extra scenario is not much of a tip.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial · 2h This poll average has been steady for a while now. Six points isn't enough mid-term to justify an opposition party thinking it's on course for victory. Not by a long chalk.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
@Theuniondivvie a long shot but, if you happen to be in Paris, there used to be a couple of very good movie poster shops on Rue Babylone in the 7th, close to Le Bon Marche which were still there when I looked. Some good restaurants nearby as well so you can have lunch and then get your poster (and some very good chocolate stores).
Thanks Mr Ed, I'll see if they have an online presence at least. It's the kind of US movie the French would love.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
Arguably the Eastern European countries are motivated by strategic expectations rather than just historical experience. This would go some way to explain East Germany: Whatever about parts of Poland or Lithuania, Russia poses zero threat of occupying Saxony. IIRC East Germany was the richest Communist country with very few resident Russians, far from a simple story of universal suffering arising from external oppression. There were plenty of East Germans who enforced the regime on each other by working with the Stasi or the captured civil society groups, and plenty others who thought the regime was by and large comparable to the West in its moral standing. Finally you have a large younger demographic with no experience of Communism but up to 30 years' experience of being an economic periphery. So it's quite different to a place like Estonia where the narrative of brutal occupation is more plausible, both about the past and in the future.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
Very nasty piece of work he plays in Internal Affairs.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
One aspect is that they went from being the most successful, relatively, of the Eastern Bloc countries to being swallowed up wholesale by the Federal Republic, accompanied by the liquidation of a lot of their old industries. The transition is associated with a loss of status in a way that isn't the case for other former Soviet satellites.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
Very nasty piece of work he plays in Internal Affairs.
The memo states: "Please, will all programmes note that under no circumstances whatsoever should allegations about the private life of Peter Mandelson be repeated or referred to on any broadcast."
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”
I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”
The problem was when Japan showed the world that the UK could not control the empire any more. That did for any claims of global control.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
If, big if, but if the Tories can restabilise in the polling mid 30s, ditch Johnson, then a bit of red meat and populism and hose money at CoL early next year and play a 40/41% strategy at a May election it will probably be just about enough, certainly to make them the only viable government on 310 plus However, the question is how disastrous will that make 2028?!
I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
Rebellion can be catching. Plenty of people not willing to put in letters may, if forced to choose, vote against him in a VONC.
Even if he then, as expected, wins that vote, there will be many more than 54 who will have voted against him. Will they cease to be a problem or might they have gained a taste for defiance?
What did Boris and his cohorts do after they failed to outst May? Did they stop trying?
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I hope you're right.
If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
I know the Richard Gere version well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I hope you're right.
If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?". Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
He's not a great actor but he is (imo) a great movie star. If he's in something - so long as it's set in the modern world because he's absurd in costume - I'll always be up for seeing it. That one, Gigolo, is one of his best. Could not be cast better and plus the soundtrack. I saw it when it came out with my 1st serious girlfriend (who became my 1st serious wife) and to say she was "into" him doesn't really do it justice.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
While i think it is now highly unlikely that the Tories will win another election (not since the 19th century has a party won 5 in a row)
However.....just remember in June 2019 there were 3 consecutive polls putting the Tories in 4th place behind Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit Party with May's party in some of the polls at just 17%. Just 6 months later the Tories win 43% of the vote with their biggest majority since 1987, so anything can happen
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
I would also say that the demographics play a big part.
The people who have stayed in East Germany tend to remember before.
(It's basically Germany that's older, less densely populated and less rich than the West ... so let's see how German UKIP did there in 2017 ...
oh)
*I chose 2017 as it was a high-point and also I couldn't find a suitable map for 2021 **I also know that Die Linke have their strongholds in the same place. But they're really rather irrelevent.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I hope you're right.
If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?" Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.
Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
I think there are more silent assassins out there. Keeping quiet but sending letters in so they can announce or play dumb in the best interests of their rotten careers I think we are headed for VONC Monday morning and the Sundays will carry rumours of the blessed news
I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
I may be wrong but I just can't buy into this idea. Johnson isn't a 'Put up or shut up' kind of operator.
More likely to have the offenders nobbled over the Jubilee weekend.
I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
I may be wrong but I just can't buy into this idea. Johnson isn't a 'Put up or shut up' kind of operator.
More likely to have the offenders nobbled over the Jubilee weekend.
He has always had everything handed him on a plate, he doesn't do sleeves up practicality.
Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?
Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:
BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.
This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.
And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Okay there we go. Too short by my reckoning so therefore not value.
Maybe watch if the VONC is called. The period of temporary tory turbulence might offer better value.
If they ditch Johnson they could clean up the act.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
At least we'd be polite! I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
He's not a great actor but he is (imo) a great movie star. If he's in something - so long as it's set in the modern world because he's absurd in costume - I'll always be up for seeing it. That one, Gigolo, is one of his best. Could not be cast better and plus the soundtrack. I saw it when it came out with my 1st serious girlfriend (who became my 1st serious wife) and to say she was "into" him doesn't really do it justice.
You sound like BJ. Precisely how many 'unserious' wives have you had?
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
I know the Richard Gere version film well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
Yes, got you, but oddly I was torn. I do like Richard Gere. Went through an unfortunate - but happily short - phase of trying to copy his walk.
It's easy to say "Oh, I just love France, darling" when you're sat in some Provencal village with an easy glass of wine and small plate of fine meat.
Try catching the RER home to an anonymous flat in some outer suburb. That'll put hairs on your chest.
In 2013, when PSG won the league, it kicked off, the police called in the CRS and it absolutely went off all over the centre.
I was also there (albeit as a visitor, having moved back to UK a few years before) in 2019 for the scenes after the African Cup of Nations Games. Rubber bullets bouncing down the side street past where we were drinking.
I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
That won't boost the tories.
Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot Tiverton blue if BJ goes
There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.
In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
I hope you're right.
If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?". Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.
Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
People have speculated many times that he does that, but it only makes sense to me if he is very untrustworthy.
It would give him far too much sway over the process, the opportunity to lean on people to withdraw by getting them to second guess their own decision. The temptation for him to use that to lean on the leader would be there. It would encourage people to submit letters in a performative way, knowing they will get a final opportunity to recant, rather than a carefully considered judgement.
We know people can and have withdrawn letters on their own. I would hope he treats their submissions as genuine and thoughtful, not time limited and he needs to check up on them. If they have changed their minds they know how to contact him.
Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.
Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?
@Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.
I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.
The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.
The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
I know the Richard Gere version film well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
Yes, got you, but oddly I was torn. I do like Richard Gere. Went through an unfortunate - but happily short - phase of trying to copy his walk.
It is so close to that date I can believe a few more are waiting on it, although really, if they are thinking of submitting a letter do they believe holding one or both of those seats makes a great deal of difference to suitability?
It is so close to that date I can believe a few more are waiting on it, although really, if they are thinking of submitting a letter do they believe holding one or both of those seats makes a great deal of difference to suitability?
For the Tory jellyfish, there's always some reason to wait a while longer.
I can't read it, but does it say that the trans activists / student protestors were Labour Party members or supporters? I suspect not, but do correct me if I'm wrong.
PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”
Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university
And would Starmer get the same reception
What happened to free speech
1. I'm not interested. 2. I neither know nor care. 3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.
BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
I would also say that the demographics play a big part.
The people who have stayed in East Germany tend to remember before.
(It's basically Germany that's older, less densely populated and less rich than the West ... so let's see how German UKIP did there in 2017 ...
oh)
*I chose 2017 as it was a high-point and also I couldn't find a suitable map for 2021 **I also know that Die Linke have their strongholds in the same place. But they're really rather irrelevent.
The AfD's core vote is really just 30-50 year old low educated males in the East, particularly in the rural areas of Saxony/Saxony Anhalt/Thuringia. Pensioners still vote for the CDU and SPD.
PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”
PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”
Track record is overrated. I think Boris is often underestimated and his successes dismissed (It was only against Livingstone et al), but anyone who won one election and then lost the next had a 'track record' of winning which did not help them, and they usually lost to someone who had not won a national election before.
PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”
Back in my day at uni, Warwick had the reputation as a place where the Ts had to remain closested for their own safety...clearly been a lot of progress where they can be out and proud on campus.
We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid
PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”
When he's finally fired from the cabinet, I do hope Rees-Mogg gets some help for his addiction to whatever it is he's smoking.
If he were to take something I assume it would be in the form of snuff, pipe, or some other antiquarian method which seems classy until you think about the grubbiness of what he was actually doing.
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”
I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."
Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.
That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.
Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”
Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university
And would Starmer get the same reception
What happened to free speech
1. I'm not interested. 2. I neither know nor care. 3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.
BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university
And would Starmer get the same reception
What happened to free speech
How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
Trans activist hound Zahawi off campus shouting 'tory scum ' - and I am surprised at the outrage that I had the temerity to post the story
Doesn'tr mean anything. 'Tory scum' is default option for any student these days, being charged 12% interest on their student loan, about 10% above base rate. I'd be using much stronger words ...
Comments
I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly
https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248
As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.
https://order-order.com/2022/05/30/leaked-treasury-memo-warns-leaking-is-unacceptable/
Patrick O'Flynn
@oflynnsocial
·
2h
This poll average has been steady for a while now. Six points isn't enough mid-term to justify an opposition party thinking it's on course for victory. Not by a long chalk.
I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
I was laughing my head off at that. It must be so satisfying linking something like that.
https://cine-images.com/
we got some posters from there, the guys are super nice (or were) and they may be able to help if they don’t have it.
48 hours later, when it had been leaked to all the media, it had become their main news story...
The memo states: "Please, will all programmes note that under no circumstances whatsoever should allegations about the private life of Peter Mandelson be repeated or referred to on any broadcast."
Allegations?!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61636938
However, the question is how disastrous will that make 2028?!
Even if he then, as expected, wins that vote, there will be many more than 54 who will have voted against him. Will they cease to be a problem or might they have gained a taste for defiance?
What did Boris and his cohorts do after they failed to outst May? Did they stop trying?
One minister: “There will be another round [of no-confidence letters] post the by-elections.”
https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9
Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
However.....just remember in June 2019 there were 3 consecutive polls putting the Tories in 4th place behind Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit Party with May's party in some of the polls at just 17%. Just 6 months later the Tories win 43% of the vote with their biggest majority since 1987, so anything can happen
What do you think?
The people who have stayed in East Germany tend to remember before.
(It's basically Germany that's older, less densely populated and less rich than the West ... so let's see how German UKIP did there in 2017 ...
oh)
*I chose 2017 as it was a high-point and also I couldn't find a suitable map for 2021
**I also know that Die Linke have their strongholds in the same place. But they're really rather irrelevent.
Shitting on vulnerable schoolkids to advance her popularity with the Tory grassroots... What a piece of work.
What. Did. You. Expect?
I think we are headed for VONC Monday morning and the Sundays will carry rumours of the blessed news
More likely to have the offenders nobbled over the Jubilee weekend.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0
Two Tory by-elections. One red wall (Wakefield). One blue wall (Tiverton)
If Tories lose both… red wall + blue wall rejection… on anniversary of Brexit vote… given where MPs are now… it could get dicey
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1531355790237474817
Maybe watch if the VONC is called. The period of temporary tory turbulence might offer better value.
If they ditch Johnson they could clean up the act.
Try catching the RER home to an anonymous flat in some outer suburb. That'll put hairs on your chest.
In 2013, when PSG won the league, it kicked off, the police called in the CRS and it absolutely went off all over the centre.
I was also there (albeit as a visitor, having moved back to UK a few years before) in 2019 for the scenes after the African Cup of Nations Games. Rubber bullets bouncing down the side street past where we were drinking.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/30/watch-trans-activists-hound-nadhim-zahawi-university-campus/
As certain as Germany being, well, Germany.
Dodgy pair
I don't want to read people's obsessions with willies.
There really ARE things which matter to the country and world and this isn't one of them.
It would give him far too much sway over the process, the opportunity to lean on people to withdraw by getting them to second guess their own decision. The temptation for him to use that to lean on the leader would be there. It would encourage people to submit letters in a performative way, knowing they will get a final opportunity to recant, rather than a carefully considered judgement.
We know people can and have withdrawn letters on their own. I would hope he treats their submissions as genuine and thoughtful, not time limited and he needs to check up on them. If they have changed their minds they know how to contact him.
"a very shocked reaction, especially one in which you show more shock than you really feel in order to show that you think something is morally wrong"
'Oh the horror darling'
Move on Big_G.
And would Starmer get the same reception
What happened to free speech
https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9
2. I neither know nor care.
3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.
BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
If not, why not?
Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
By the Ts, I of course mean Tories.
on the appropriate side.
It is quite funny though that a few county journeymen could beat New Zealand, and our supposed best players almost certainly won't.