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The Policeman and The Lawyer – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    At least we'd be polite!
    I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
    Very nasty piece of work he plays in Internal Affairs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,630
    edited May 2022

    Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?

    One aspect is that they went from being the most successful, relatively, of the Eastern Bloc countries to being swallowed up wholesale by the Federal Republic, accompanied by the liquidation of a lot of their old industries. The transition is associated with a loss of status in a way that isn't the case for other former Soviet satellites.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Yes yes, it's from Guido, but I do like a good 'Message telling people not to leak is leaked' story.

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/30/leaked-treasury-memo-warns-leaking-is-unacceptable/

    I’m glad someone else linked to that, people complain when I link to Guido.

    I was laughing my head off at that. It must be so satisfying linking something like that.
    The best example was when the head of BBC News sent out a memo ordering his staff not to report on Mandelson's sexuality.

    48 hours later, when it had been leaked to all the media, it had become their main news story...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    At least we'd be polite!
    I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
    Very nasty piece of work he plays in Internal Affairs.
    Another good one
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Yes yes, it's from Guido, but I do like a good 'Message telling people not to leak is leaked' story.

    https://order-order.com/2022/05/30/leaked-treasury-memo-warns-leaking-is-unacceptable/

    I’m glad someone else linked to that, people complain when I link to Guido.

    I was laughing my head off at that. It must be so satisfying linking something like that.
    The best example was when the head of BBC News sent out a memo ordering his staff not to report on Mandelson's sexuality.

    48 hours later, when it had been leaked to all the media, it had become their main news story...
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/mandelson-claim-banned-on-bbc-1181648.html?amp

    The memo states: "Please, will all programmes note that under no circumstances whatsoever should allegations about the private life of Peter Mandelson be repeated or referred to on any broadcast."

    Allegations?!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2022

    Andrew Bridgen now confirms he has submitted the letter

    Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248

    I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    "Champions League final: Uefa commissions independent report into scenes outside stadium"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61636938
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    I hope you're right.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    boulay said:

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”

    The problem was when Japan showed the world that the UK could not control the empire any more. That did for any claims of global control.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022
    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    If, big if, but if the Tories can restabilise in the polling mid 30s, ditch Johnson, then a bit of red meat and populism and hose money at CoL early next year and play a 40/41% strategy at a May election it will probably be just about enough, certainly to make them the only viable government on 310 plus
    However, the question is how disastrous will that make 2028?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Bridgen now confirms he has submitted the letter

    Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248

    I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
    Rebellion can be catching. Plenty of people not willing to put in letters may, if forced to choose, vote against him in a VONC.

    Even if he then, as expected, wins that vote, there will be many more than 54 who will have voted against him. Will they cease to be a problem or might they have gained a taste for defiance?

    What did Boris and his cohorts do after they failed to outst May? Did they stop trying?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    edited May 2022
    boulay said:

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”

    They didn't regard us as a friend.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    I hope you're right.
    If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited May 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    I know the Richard Gere version well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW: Senior Tories reckon a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson ‘likely’ if Tories lose June 23 by-elections, especially Tiverton and Honiton.

    One minister: “There will be another round [of no-confidence letters] post the by-elections.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited May 2022

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    I hope you're right.
    If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
    I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?". Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.

    Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    At least we'd be polite!
    I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
    He's not a great actor but he is (imo) a great movie star. If he's in something - so long as it's set in the modern world because he's absurd in costume - I'll always be up for seeing it. That one, Gigolo, is one of his best. Could not be cast better and plus the soundtrack. I saw it when it came out with my 1st serious girlfriend (who became my 1st serious wife) and to say she was "into" him doesn't really do it justice.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    While i think it is now highly unlikely that the Tories will win another election (not since the 19th century has a party won 5 in a row)

    However.....just remember in June 2019 there were 3 consecutive polls putting the Tories in 4th place behind Labour, Lib Dem and Brexit Party with May's party in some of the polls at just 17%. Just 6 months later the Tories win 43% of the vote with their biggest majority since 1987, so anything can happen
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    Ok, so what do you think the probability of this happening is (0-100)?
    20%? Maybe 15%

    What do you think?

  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Pagan2 said:

    Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?

    As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.

    East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
    I would also say that the demographics play a big part.



    The people who have stayed in East Germany tend to remember before.

    (It's basically Germany that's older, less densely populated and less rich than the West ... so let's see how German UKIP did there in 2017 ...




    oh)

    *I chose 2017 as it was a high-point and also I couldn't find a suitable map for 2021
    **I also know that Die Linke have their strongholds in the same place. But they're really rather irrelevent.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,780
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/may/30/school-leaders-criticise-attorney-generals-advice-on-trans-pupils

    Shitting on vulnerable schoolkids to advance her popularity with the Tory grassroots... What a piece of work.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    General lol at the pearl clutching about France, its suburbs and its police.

    What. Did. You. Expect?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    I hope you're right.
    If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
    I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?" Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.

    Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
    I think there are more silent assassins out there. Keeping quiet but sending letters in so they can announce or play dumb in the best interests of their rotten careers
    I think we are headed for VONC Monday morning and the Sundays will carry rumours of the blessed news
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Bridgen now confirms he has submitted the letter

    Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248

    I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
    I may be wrong but I just can't buy into this idea. Johnson isn't a 'Put up or shut up' kind of operator.

    More likely to have the offenders nobbled over the Jubilee weekend.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Confirmed letters plus suspected letters = 48 MPs according to this.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    June 23 is set to be a huge day in the political calendar and for the PM

    Two Tory by-elections. One red wall (Wakefield). One blue wall (Tiverton)

    If Tories lose both… red wall + blue wall rejection… on anniversary of Brexit vote… given where MPs are now… it could get dicey

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1531355790237474817
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Heathener said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andrew Bridgen now confirms he has submitted the letter

    Sky upto 27 - half way there and the daily drip drip I am convinced will see the 54 shortly

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-three-more-tory-mps-urge-boris-johnson-to-quit-how-many-now-want-him-to-resign-12624248

    I know I'm repeating myself but if Johnson thinks the number will be reached pretty soon he may prefer to get it over with as soon as possible. Encourage a few of his biggest supporters to send letters in.
    I may be wrong but I just can't buy into this idea. Johnson isn't a 'Put up or shut up' kind of operator.

    More likely to have the offenders nobbled over the Jubilee weekend.
    He has always had everything handed him on a plate, he doesn't do sleeves up practicality.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 2022

    EPG said:

    Heathener said:

    BETTING TIP?

    Hi everyone. This has probably been mentioned many times by others (apologies if so) but I wonder if now isn't the right time to have a flutter on a Conservative majority at the next GE?

    Very unlikely so it all depends on the value. But this is why:

    BJ gets booted out. A new broom in the party and parliament draws a big line under the disgusting immorality (no other word). The country moves on. SKS fails to ignite whilst the new leader gets a honeymoon boost. Bingo.

    This isn't a tip, it's a scenario.

    And "dull grey pol replacing blond celebrity bluffer and philanderer" isn't a guarantee of success in the modern era.
    Betfair will give you 3/1 on a Conservative majority.

    I think that's perhaps a little short, but given the possibility that the Tories could lose seats but retain a majority, not by too much.
    Okay there we go. Too short by my reckoning so therefore not value.

    Maybe watch if the VONC is called. The period of temporary tory turbulence might offer better value.

    If they ditch Johnson they could clean up the act.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    At least we'd be polite!
    I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
    He's not a great actor but he is (imo) a great movie star. If he's in something - so long as it's set in the modern world because he's absurd in costume - I'll always be up for seeing it. That one, Gigolo, is one of his best. Could not be cast better and plus the soundtrack. I saw it when it came out with my 1st serious girlfriend (who became my 1st serious wife) and to say she was "into" him doesn't really do it justice.
    You sound like BJ. Precisely how many 'unserious' wives have you had?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/may/30/school-leaders-criticise-attorney-generals-advice-on-trans-pupils

    Shitting on vulnerable schoolkids to advance her popularity with the Tory grassroots... What a piece of work.

    Funny definition of shitting on them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    I know the Richard Gere version film well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
    Yes, got you, but oddly I was torn. I do like Richard Gere. Went through an unfortunate - but happily short - phase of trying to copy his walk.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    It's easy to say "Oh, I just love France, darling" when you're sat in some Provencal village with an easy glass of wine and small plate of fine meat.

    Try catching the RER home to an anonymous flat in some outer suburb. That'll put hairs on your chest.

    In 2013, when PSG won the league, it kicked off, the police called in the CRS and it absolutely went off all over the centre.

    I was also there (albeit as a visitor, having moved back to UK a few years before) in 2019 for the scenes after the African Cup of Nations Games. Rubber bullets bouncing down the side street past where we were drinking.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmed letters plus suspected letters = 48 MPs according to this.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0

    My MP Simon Hoare, North Dorset is down as 'unclear'. I'd have him as 'suspected' given his pronouncements on Partygate and the lurch to the right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    General lol at the pearl clutching about France, its suburbs and its police.

    What. Did. You. Expect?

    Could have been worse. Could have stuck with St Petersburg.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    General lol at the pearl clutching about France, its suburbs and its police.

    What. Did. You. Expect?

    Its France. Nothing more nor less. Just France being France.
    As certain as Germany being, well, Germany.
    Dodgy pair
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    pearl clutching

    What the hell does that mean? Never heard it before in my life.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 2022
    Uh-oh ... I spy trans obsessions appearing so time for me to vacate the board for the evening.

    I don't want to read people's obsessions with willies.

    There really ARE things which matter to the country and world and this isn't one of them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited May 2022

    "Champions League final: Uefa commissions independent report into scenes outside stadium"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61636938

    Anybody know if Sue Gray is at a loose end...asking for a friend at Uefa.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    JonWC said:

    Heathener said:

    Tories lengthening in Tiverton & Honiton:

    LD 3/10
    Con 11/4
    100 bar

    I wouldn't be betting on by-elections until much nearer the day. A VONC of Boris could change the mood dramatically. He could easily be gone by polling day. Even before postals go out....
    That won't boost the tories.

    Not unless / until they have selected a new leader, installed as PM, with a resounding message of confidence will the voters take notice.
    Many many Tories here have said they won't vote Tory again while Boris is leader. If he were ejected next week they would certainly do much better and may very well retain what is after all an ultra safe Tory seat.
    And rather than a rapist, the outgoing guy was merely a dirty porn watcher, id suggest worse goes on most days in the HoC. Its not a punishment beating thing in and of itself like the sexual crimes lot
    Tiverton blue if BJ goes
    There's not really any time for him to be forced out before the by-election
    Probably not unless he quits rather than face a vote
    Even then the strong likelihood would be he quits as Tory leader and stays on as PM until a replacement is chosen. I can't see it being faster than a month for that even if he fell on his sword this instant.
    If he's lost a VoNC I suspect voters will vote assuming he's gone. I am not sure that will necessarily be enough to save Tiverton for the Tories though.

    In any event we won't see a VoNC before the by-election. If there were enough Tories with backbone we'd know by now.
    I think you need to wait for next week when I expect a vonc to be called by Graham Brady
    I hope you're right.
    If Brady has the 54, i expect him to be curiously unavailable in case of reverse ferret chickens until Monday
    I presume he does a bit of phoning round to ask: "That letter you sent me a few months ago, does it still stand?". Although that does pose the serious risk (raging certainty) of a leak that the 54 has been reached.

    Is that what we're seeing now maybe?
    People have speculated many times that he does that, but it only makes sense to me if he is very untrustworthy.

    It would give him far too much sway over the process, the opportunity to lean on people to withdraw by getting them to second guess their own decision. The temptation for him to use that to lean on the leader would be there. It would encourage people to submit letters in a performative way, knowing they will get a final opportunity to recant, rather than a carefully considered judgement.

    We know people can and have withdrawn letters on their own. I would hope he treats their submissions as genuine and thoughtful, not time limited and he needs to check up on them. If they have changed their minds they know how to contact him.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    I know the Richard Gere version film well, though found myself much more attracted to Valerie Kaprisky than to Gere, young man that I was back in 1983.
    Yes, got you, but oddly I was torn. I do like Richard Gere. Went through an unfortunate - but happily short - phase of trying to copy his walk.
    Oh dear, that's seriously sad.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    In todays birthing parent chest feeders against racist lamp posts news........
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    Heathener said:

    pearl clutching

    What the hell does that mean? Never heard it before in my life.
    Common expression. Being easily, performatively offended, such as ostentatiously clutching at your pearls in faux outrage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Heathener said:

    Uh-oh ... I spy trans obsessions appearing so time for me to vacate the board for the evening.

    I don't want to read people's obsessions with willies.

    There really ARE things which matter to the country and world and this isn't one of them.

    PB does resemble a BBC wireless broadcast from a sausage factory at times, one must admit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Heathener said:

    pearl clutching

    What the hell does that mean? Never heard it before in my life.
    It's a widely-used expression, try googling it. Here's a sample definition

    "a very shocked reaction, especially one in which you show more shock than you really feel in order to show that you think something is morally wrong"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    Scott_xP said:

    June 23 is set to be a huge day in the political calendar and for the PM

    Two Tory by-elections. One red wall (Wakefield). One blue wall (Tiverton)

    If Tories lose both… red wall + blue wall rejection… on anniversary of Brexit vote… given where MPs are now… it could get dicey

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1531355790237474817

    It is so close to that date I can believe a few more are waiting on it, although really, if they are thinking of submitting a letter do they believe holding one or both of those seats makes a great deal of difference to suitability?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Heathener said:

    pearl clutching

    What the hell does that mean? Never heard it before in my life.
    It's a widely-used expression, try googling it. Here's a sample definition

    "a very shocked reaction, especially one in which you show more shock than you really feel in order to show that you think something is morally wrong"
    Think Morningside matrons outraged at the very thought of voting for a social democrat such as Mr Corbyn while happily voting for Mr Murray.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited May 2022
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    June 23 is set to be a huge day in the political calendar and for the PM

    Two Tory by-elections. One red wall (Wakefield). One blue wall (Tiverton)

    If Tories lose both… red wall + blue wall rejection… on anniversary of Brexit vote… given where MPs are now… it could get dicey

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1531355790237474817

    It is so close to that date I can believe a few more are waiting on it, although really, if they are thinking of submitting a letter do they believe holding one or both of those seats makes a great deal of difference to suitability?
    For the Tory jellyfish, there's always some reason to wait a while longer.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    I can't read it, but does it say that the trans activists / student protestors were Labour Party members or supporters? I suspect not, but do correct me if I'm wrong.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    pearl clutching

    What the hell does that mean? Never heard it before in my life.
    Common expression. Being easily, performatively offended, such as ostentatiously clutching at your pearls in faux outrage.
    Particularly the faux outrage of the idle rich at mildly saucy or iffy situations
    'Oh the horror darling'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Zzzzz....

    Move on Big_G.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited May 2022

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    1. I'm not interested.
    2. I neither know nor care.
    3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.

    BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Have we nuked Paris yet?

    If not, why not?
  • Pagan2 said:

    Can anyone explain East Germany to me? We talk of an east/west divide in Europe. The east who have suffered under Russian brutality have a much tougher stance on the Ukraine war than the west countries in general. And yet East Germans, a soviet satellite for decades, seem to be much more accommodating to Putin than their western counterparts. Why is this? Masochism?

    As for Macron's position if that twitter thread is to be believed I still a bit puzzled. The logic is not to focus on maximalist goals because these are unachievable without direct western intervention. I don't know whether that refers to Crimea but a million men in arms seeking to liberate towns under occupation does not strike me as unachievable. Does it make sense for Germany to withhold it's feted artillery because that might encourage the Ukrainians into thinking they can win? The other point was Macron's obsession with strategic autonomy for Europe meaning there had to be distance from the United States whether or not they really disagreed anyway. The irony would be that in seeking a European defence policy distinct from the USA he is simply dividing the continent between those who broadly agree with the US and those that don't.

    East germans I am told, and dont know if true as anecdotal, well a lot of them still have nostalgia for the old days. I have some sympathy for them they had a huge almost overnight change in the way things worked and had to deal with it. They had a certain stability and understood life then it got thrown into chaos some adapted well, some didn't like in all change situations and those that didn't still carry a sense of I understood things before
    I would also say that the demographics play a big part.



    The people who have stayed in East Germany tend to remember before.

    (It's basically Germany that's older, less densely populated and less rich than the West ... so let's see how German UKIP did there in 2017 ...




    oh)

    *I chose 2017 as it was a high-point and also I couldn't find a suitable map for 2021
    **I also know that Die Linke have their strongholds in the same place. But they're really rather irrelevent.
    The AfD's core vote is really just 30-50 year old low educated males in the East, particularly in the rural areas of Saxony/Saxony Anhalt/Thuringia. Pensioners still vote for the CDU and SPD.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Scott_xP said:

    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9

    The ideal scenario for Labour is a VoNC which Johnson narrowly wins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    Scott_xP said:

    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9

    Track record is overrated. I think Boris is often underestimated and his successes dismissed (It was only against Livingstone et al), but anyone who won one election and then lost the next had a 'track record' of winning which did not help them, and they usually lost to someone who had not won a national election before.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Scott_xP said:

    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9

    When he's finally fired from the cabinet, I do hope Rees-Mogg gets some help for his addiction to whatever it is he's smoking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    Have we nuked Paris yet?

    If not, why not?

    We were worried you had stayed for a 3 day weekend, and wanted to make sure you were clear.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Have we nuked Paris yet?

    If not, why not?

    There is risk of war with Russia. But due to treaties our weapons systems need to be tested. Calibrated. We need a test target. Like Alderaan...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited May 2022
    Back in my day at uni, Warwick had the reputation as a place where the Ts had to remain closested for their own safety...clearly been a lot of progress where they can be out and proud on campus.

    By the Ts, I of course mean Tories.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid


  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmed letters plus suspected letters = 48 MPs according to this.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0

    My MP Simon Hoare, North Dorset is down as 'unclear'. I'd have him as 'suspected' given his pronouncements on Partygate and the lurch to the right.
    If he’s the same chap i knew at Oxford, he’ll be deciding which way it’s playing and then jump
    on the appropriate side.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    kle4 said:

    Have we nuked Paris yet?

    If not, why not?

    We were worried you had stayed for a 3 day weekend, and wanted to make sure you were clear.
    Cheers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9

    When he's finally fired from the cabinet, I do hope Rees-Mogg gets some help for his addiction to whatever it is he's smoking.
    If he were to take something I assume it would be in the form of snuff, pipe, or some other antiquarian method which seems classy until you think about the grubbiness of what he was actually doing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Confirmed letters plus suspected letters = 48 MPs according to this.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0

    My MP Simon Hoare, North Dorset is down as 'unclear'. I'd have him as 'suspected' given his pronouncements on Partygate and the lurch to the right.
    If he’s the same chap i knew at Oxford, he’ll be deciding which way it’s playing and then jump
    on the appropriate side.
    Appropriate for a Hoare.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,780
    boulay said:

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”

    We couldn't control them, that's why we left.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    boulay said:

    ...

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    Similar sentiments were widely expressed in September 1938.
    Probably correctly. Participating on the other hand, cost Britain her Empire. However, it was a moral responsibility by the time it got to WW2.
    It is questionable whether the Empire was economically sustainable, and it certainly wasn't morally defensible, in any event. And the notion that our continued dominion over Fiji, Guyana and Nyasaland would've saved us from becoming a helpless satellite of a massive pan-continental fascist hegemon is laughable.
    Yes, the geographical extent of the Empire was not a reflection of economical and military power, I agree. However, it cannot be avoided that the war impoverished Britain, by costing us heaps of cold hard cash. The economy had recovered well in the 1930's. By contrast the war enriched America, who sat peacefully and prosperously on the sidelines.
    I do like to think that somewhere in the ether the ghosts of US leaders and politicians are thinking “you know what guys, all the effort and anger we put into dismantling the British Empire, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea as we had a friend controlling troublesome parts at their cost who we could have controlled the world hand in hand….”

    We couldn't control them, that's why we left.
    By and large, it was them that left us.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Trans activist hound Zahawi off campus shouting 'tory scum ' - and I am surprised at the outrage that I had the temerity to post the story

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    England are favourites to win the test match this week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    tlg86 said:

    England are favourites to win the test match this week.

    The Indian bookies are up to their usual tricks.
  • Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    1. I'm not interested.
    2. I neither know nor care.
    3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.

    BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
    Fair answers to 2 and 3, but 1 is a cop-out
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I did the Diploma in Medical Education there. Good course, but boring place. No Tory though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Trans activist hound Zahawi off campus shouting 'tory scum ' - and I am surprised at the outrage that I had the temerity to post the story

    Doesn'tr mean anything. 'Tory scum' is default option for any student these days, being charged 12% interest on their student loan, about 10% above base rate. I'd be using much stronger words ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    tlg86 said:

    England are favourites to win the test match this week.

    We'll have our test players, not the county ones.

    It is quite funny though that a few county journeymen could beat New Zealand, and our supposed best players almost certainly won't.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    "Champions League final: Uefa commissions independent report into scenes outside stadium"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61636938

    Anybody know if Sue Gray is at a loose end...asking for a friend at Uefa.
    Devenir Gris!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Bernard Hogan Howe needs some moisturiser urgently.

    Anyone know how this poll reads in terms of seats. I'd have thought a clear majority for Labour?

    @Roger, a long shot but if anyone would have a clue on this it would be you.

    I've been looking for a film poster for the 1981 Katherine Bigelow movie, The Loveless. Done the usual Google search and Ebay, even contacted a movie memorabilia store in Edinburgh but no joy. Some of the specialists have it on their lists but only as not in stock or sold. If you have any pointers about where else I might look I'd be v. grateful.

    It's the poster version below.

    https://www.pastposters.com/details.php?prodId=8914
    The best film poster shop used to be on Brewer Street Soho but they never knew what they had. You had to spend a morning looking around. Just down from Wardour Street. If you get down to london at all. I'll ask an editor friend who might have a better idea. I'll let you know. Are you a Katherine Bigelow fan? I don't think I've seen 'Loveless'. I'll look it up
    Thanks Roger. My partner is going down next month to see Cabaret, I may entreat her to do me a favour and have a look.

    The film is best described as a curiosity I think. It's kind of a visual style thing, a well executed tribute to The Wild One and biker movies in general. Robert Gordon, a rock'n'roller, is one of the stars. I'm looking for it as background to a project I'm considering.
    Richard Gere / Breathless. Liked it. Bet you and Roger would smile politely and say you prefer the French original.
    At least we'd be polite!
    I quite like Gere, American Gigolo is bleakly brilliant. He is/was just a bit too pretty though..
    He's not a great actor but he is (imo) a great movie star. If he's in something - so long as it's set in the modern world because he's absurd in costume - I'll always be up for seeing it. That one, Gigolo, is one of his best. Could not be cast better and plus the soundtrack. I saw it when it came out with my 1st serious girlfriend (who became my 1st serious wife) and to say she was "into" him doesn't really do it justice.
    You sound like BJ. Precisely how many 'unserious' wives have you had?
    That's a Frank Muir line 'When I was married to my first wife...I call her that to keep her on her toes'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited May 2022

    Have we nuked Paris yet?

    If not, why not?

    As Thierry Henry said a few weeks ago, careful its not in Paris, its in Saint Denis.

    I think if Zemmour had won he would have happily nuked Saint Denis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I did the Diploma in Medical Education there. Good course, but boring place. No Tory though.
    I know the present Earl of Warwick. Quite a card
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Scott_xP said:

    PM’s allies are optimistic about any vote: “Boris’s argument is simple: he’s never lost a national election…he won London twice, the EU ref and the 2019 election. Do you want to swap him out for someone who has zero track record of winning an election?”

    https://www.ft.com/content/39ae8f45-c071-4b61-9a76-e6a839ccc8b9

    And Boris, we want to ensure that you keep that record intact …
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid


    Leon said:

    We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid


    You can stay 364 days out of any 365 on a British passport, and even take paid employment. A sort of odd one-way freedom-of-movement.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    You seriously think that if Putin seized all of eastern and Central Europe, presumably including Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Czechia, Croatia, Austria, etc etc etc, ie half of the EU and NATO, that wouldn’t make “a blind bit of difference to Britain’s interests”?

    You’re a fucking lunatic
    Yes, I really think that. That's not the same as staying I want it to happen. Historically, bits of Europe change hands all the time, between the Holy Roman Empire and the French, and blobs of Germany, and the Pope. It doesn't make much difference to Britain. We are an Island, a 'fortress built by Nature for herself against infection and the hand of war'.
    Well she singularly failed against infection and the hand of war certainly extended itself to our shores the last time someone thought a central European war was "a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I was indeed once chairman of Warwick University Conservative Association, had Lord Hurd and Ann Widdecombe to speak in my time amongst others.

    If you invite a high profile speaker the far left protests are just par for the course, glad to see the current Tory Association went ahead with the Zahawi talk anyway
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    So, did Liverpool get the Quadruple or did they just end up with the Texaco Cup and the Fifa fair play certificate?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I did the Diploma in Medical Education there. Good course, but boring place. No Tory though.
    I know the present Earl of Warwick. Quite a card
    I bet he doesn't live in Coventry though where Warwick Uni is located....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    1. I'm not interested.
    2. I neither know nor care.
    3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.

    BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
    Fair answers to 2 and 3, but 1 is a cop-out
    "Education Minister encounters student protests" does not strike me as the remotest bit interesting, or surprising.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid


    Leon said:

    We should all move to Tbilisi. It’s even more amazing at night. Everyone is drunk. Or stoned. Including the fundamentalist Muslims. Kids play mad jazz piano in open air bars. It’s beautiful but surreal. It’s a steampunk hashish dream of 1890s Paris run by hip London Russians. On acid


    You can stay 364 days out of any 365 on a British passport, and even take paid employment. A sort of odd one-way freedom-of-movement.
    I know. I am seriously tempted

    I can’t remember when I have been so bewitched by a city. Genuinely

    Possibly Bangkok in my 20s?

    I’m not alone. It is full of Arabs and Turks and Indians - all getting madly drunk. It is obviously the go-to pleasure zone for a LOT of people. It has a real sense of Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    1. I'm not interested.
    2. I neither know nor care.
    3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.

    BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
    Fair answers to 2 and 3, but 1 is a cop-out
    "Education Minister encounters student protests" does not strike me as the remotest bit interesting, or surprising.
    Students protesting over someone using a dictionary and scientific definition of a word is so NUS though. They all think they are Rik from the Young Ones but all 2000s and edgy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I did the Diploma in Medical Education there. Good course, but boring place. No Tory though.
    I know the present Earl of Warwick. Quite a card
    I bet he doesn't live in Coventry though where Warwick Uni is located....
    Most of the students though live in Leamington
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    How do you know they aren't Tory students wanting their party to do the right thing as they see it?
    Warwick is a famously boring university, so that could well be true.

    Perhaps BGNW is just giving an illustrative example of pearl clutching...
    Suddenly realised - isn't one of us on PB an ex-Warwick Tory? Or rather a Tory ex-Warwick?
    I did the Diploma in Medical Education there. Good course, but boring place. No Tory though.
    I know the present Earl of Warwick. Quite a card
    I bet he doesn't live in Coventry though where Warwick Uni is located....
    Lives mainly in Oz and Bali. Has a beautiful villa in the latter, albeit now surrounded by tourist tat
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm not saying Simon Jenkins is a Kremlin stooge, but Simon Jenkins is not not a Kremlin stooge
    His article about Russia's military build up in January began by claiming that "nothing on the ground poses any strategic threat to Britain or any other western government, or even to Europe’s security as a whole."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk
    That article has aged well, hasn't it?

    Another one who believes that Russia should be the gendarme of Eastern Europe.
    I am not aware of anything going on in Ukraine that *has*posed a strategical threat to Britain. The above seems a not very insightful statement of fact.
    There is a simple and very obvious strategic threat. Most of us believe very strongly (and this is backed up by many independent analysts) that Putin has his eyes not only on Ukraine but on many of the former Iron Curtain countries. Remember his demands prior to invading Ukraine were not just that Ukraine should be within the Russian sphere but that NATO should withdraw from all the former Warsaw Pact countries or risk war. Many of these are now members of NATO and an attack on one of those would precipitate open war between the UK and Russia.

    That is not just a strategic threat but quite likely an existential threat as well. Far better to make a stand now rather than allowing Putin victories which would probably embolden him.

    Jenkins was, is, and will remain, wrong if that is his view.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on a British response. As is the above post about Russia threatening nuclear obliteration. The objective reality is that Russia can gobble up as much of Eastern and Central Europe is it likes, and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to Britain's interests. It would be horrible for those concerned however.
    You seriously think that if Putin seized all of eastern and Central Europe, presumably including Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Czechia, Croatia, Austria, etc etc etc, ie half of the EU and NATO, that wouldn’t make “a blind bit of difference to Britain’s interests”?

    You’re a fucking lunatic
    Yes, I really think that. That's not the same as staying I want it to happen. Historically, bits of Europe change hands all the time, between the Holy Roman Empire and the French, and blobs of Germany, and the Pope. It doesn't make much difference to Britain. We are an Island, a 'fortress built by Nature for herself against infection and the hand of war'.
    Well she singularly failed against infection and the hand of war certainly extended itself to our shores the last time someone thought a central European war was "a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing"
    The Anti-French-Ditch came in very handy. See the Sandhiurst war gaming of Sealion. On one run, the Germans achieved losses of 25% in the first wave. Before any British units did anything…
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ping said:

    Next UK GE - Liberal Democrat vote share (Lad)

    10-15% 7/4
    5-10% 9/4
    15-20% 3/1
    20-25% 7/1
    25-30% 16/1
    20 bar

    Is 0-5% 20/1?

    Value if so. I expect a new Tory leader will, in reality, ditch the red wall strategy and aim to squeeze the LD vote as low as it will go.

    I don’t think they’ll succeed, but 20/1 on under 5% is value.
    Correct: 0-5% is 20/1

    And Over 30% is 33/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Do you approve of Zahawi treatment at this university

    And would Starmer get the same reception

    What happened to free speech
    1. I'm not interested.
    2. I neither know nor care.
    3. It's alive and kicking: The Telegraph is free to publish its article; Zahawi has more platforms to spout his views than you or I ever will; people have the right to protest at his views.

    BTW: You have provided a nice example of 'pearl-clutching' to help @Heathener.
    Fair answers to 2 and 3, but 1 is a cop-out
    "Education Minister encounters student protests" does not strike me as the remotest bit interesting, or surprising.
    Students protesting over someone using a dictionary and scientific definition of a word is so NUS though. They all think they are Rik from the Young Ones but all 2000s and edgy
    'Twas ever thus. Well, since the mid-1960s at any rate.
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