A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com
The big message from the local election results is that the Tories suffered a lot of losses, particularly in places in the South which the party once regarded as its homeland.
The anti-Tory vote is getting stronger and more organised across Britain. There is no longer a significant UKIP/Reform vote for the Tories to squeeze. NOM must now be favourite in 2024 and that probably does mean Starmer (or his replacement) in 10 Downing Street.
It looks like any route will not be through the Brexit-supporting, middle England, traditional swing seats, but instead circumventing via a few dozen losses to "generic opposition" in hitherto surprising places in the South of England, plus less surprising reversions in Wales, Scotland, and Celtic extremities of England.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
If Starmer receives a FPN he would have to resign . This would put the spotlight on the fact Johnson hasn’t . Of course he has no shame and will try and cling on .
I think - rightly or wrongly - Starmer would stay on, because like the Tories there wouldn't be an obvious successor. None of the factions (even the Corbynites - they need Starmer to lose the next election) in the PLP want a leadership contest anytime soon.
Come to think of it, I suppose an Yvette Cooper coronation is possible if Starmer did have to go. She's the only possible candidate who'd probably be able to be up to it from the off.
'You have the ideal result for you IMO. If Labour had done too well, Johnson would be toast and the Tory Party would regenerate itself. This way The Clown most likely remains clinging on by his fingernails maximising the chances of a Labour victory. This does not thrill me, but it should please you. '
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
I think the next GE is still very much up in the air (unfortunately).
Labour is doing better but I suspect some of this is less to do with Starmer and Labour policies and more to do with the fact they’re the default choice with the Tories self imploding. This does give the Tories a way back in when it comes to the “Crunch” - i.e the moment when the election is called where you have to make up your mind whether you really want to change governments or not.
At this point I can see anything from Lab largest party in hung Parliament to Tory majority of 30 or so. I think the next GE complain is going to be pretty nasty and ill-mannered and the Tories are going to pull out every trick in the book. As I mentioned in the previous thread, I think a lot of the attacks will be targeted at the “woke elite” and there’s a good chance it might just save them in some marginals.
So with the coppers confirming that they will be investigating SKS I return to my previous suggestion.
Boris Johnson could call a snap election for next month. Kills off leadership talk and he might just buy himself 5 more years on a slender majority. That would be sufficient to ride out the shitstorm which is coming.
If they go to the polls in 2 years they haven't a prayer.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Yup. Don’t agree with you much on here but the conclusion we have to draw from this is that we must never again pass such draconian laws. And we might need a few politicians to be burnt by those laws for the lesson to sink in.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?
Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.
The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.
And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Well said! 👍
And Keir wanted to keep those stupid rules for even longer, even after the vaccines had been rolled out, and made a stink about others breaching them.
Sod the lot of them. Boris, Keir, Sturgeon, Drakeford - they all broke the rules, they all imposed/voted for them. They should all go, clear them all out.
The overnights seem to have flattered the Conservatives, somewhat against expectation. Or expectation here, anyway: several commenters noted that 'it looks bad for the Tories now, but when the better results come in tomorrow, the narrative will already have been established".
While OGH's header is correct - this is not a transfer of power to Labour- it is a dramatic collapse in Tory fortunes.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
Can we have naan of those silly puns. It won't help you to curry favour with other posters
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
The landscape of British politics, perhaps for decades to come, hinges upon these findings. If found innocent Sir Keir lives to fight another day and the next election is up for grabs; found guilty and he will have no choice but to resign, the Corbynites may make a comeback and Boris will be PM until the time of his choosing.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?
Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
Same thing happened with Downing Street though, so turnabout is fair play.
I'm not religious, but "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is a good line and Keir has been throwing plenty of stones about cake/alcohol while he knew he was guilty of the same offence so 🤷♂️
A lot of the Conservative losses are lagging the electoral performance at other levels - like the Southern Democrat congressmen who held on until Obamacare. This is true in a lot of London areas like Wandsworth and even Westminster. So they are more likely to fear losses that may be leading parliamentary losses. However, after 1997 Lib Dems have converted only a few local heartlands to seats, even in 2005-10. So even if local MPs are scared, you can see why Conservative national leaders may treat these Southern losses as a bluff.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.
This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.
This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Well said! 👍
And Keir wanted to keep those stupid rules for even longer, even after the vaccines had been rolled out, and made a stink about others breaching them.
Sod the lot of them. Boris, Keir, Sturgeon, Drakeford - they all broke the rules, they all imposed/voted for them. They should all go, clear them all out.
Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:
Grn +150% SLD +70% SLab + 17% SNP -2% Ind -13% SCon -21%
Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
Liberal Democrats to GAIN Somerset from Conservative
Probably even bigger than Hull, at a top of Libdem hopeometer at start of evening.
Probably massive really. Biblical.
I for have cool suggestion Ed, really cool, you like this, don’t use mallet to knock down the blue wall boxes down this time. Use a suitcase with clanking bottles inside.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?
Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
Same thing happened with Downing Street though, so turnabout is fair play.
I'm not religious, but "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is a good line and Keir has been throwing plenty of stones about cake/alcohol while he knew he was guilty of the same offence so 🤷♂️
Yeah I agree with that. What he did is nothing compared to the “bring your own booze” in the garden nonsense, but is clearly the same as the “birthday party”.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
Vinda-cation for Topping.
Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.
This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.
This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
TBH, I’m with @TOPPING, fuck them all, the draconian rules were stupid beyond belief.
However, If he does get a FPN, Starmer deserves to go, just for being a complete fucking idiot by banging on how BJ’s transgressions when he was doing the same thing himself *
He doesn’t even have BJ’s excuse of being a disorganised prat. He’s a QC and was head of the CPS. Imagine having him as your barrister in a trial. Christ.
Ps maybe Mike should change the title for the header…
I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.
Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.
Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.
There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.
This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.
I’ve been pointing that out for years, and being routinely ridiculed around here. It is not SNP and SLab VI that SCon strategists ought to worry about, it is SLD VI. If we see significant SCon to SLD tactical unwind in parliamentary elections then the Scottish Tories are totally fucked.
p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.
The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.
And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
They’ve been laughably dire for years. I can’t understand why they seem to find it so difficult to put together an engaging election night/day offering now.
Sky tend to do it a bit better. Neither are a patch on the US networks for the American elections who often have even LESS to work with given the slow pace of their results.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Pro business, remainer, small liberal revenge on the rather declasse Johnson Ukipervatives?
I suppose it might tell us something about how the next LibDem manifesto will line up (or should line up). A “continuity coalition” policy slate is probably the sweet spot in these seats.
Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:
Grn +150% SLD +70% SLab + 17% SNP -2% Ind -13% SCon -21%
Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
Vinda-cation for Topping.
Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
I don't know about that. Labour's prospects might saag, though.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?
Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
But it could be they had police present, spoke to detail guarding the revellers, in the same way at least someone knew all through Boris denials in commons that he was lying, just not knowing what to do about it. So do we know who leaked all Partygate and beergate stuff to the media to kick off the investigations. Do we really know 🤔
It is me or does the English electoral map look a little bit more like the American one today ie a land divided sharply between never the twain shall meet liberal diverse cities and populist towns/hinterlands?
Pro business, remainer, small liberal revenge on the rather declasse Johnson Ukipervatives?
I suppose it might tell us something about how the next LibDem manifesto will line up (or should line up). A “continuity coalition” policy slate is probably the sweet spot in these seats.
Absolutely (my personal viewpoint as well as the strategic one). There's far too much authoritarianism around at present in the "main" parties
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
The landscape of British politics, perhaps for decades to come, hinges upon these findings. If found innocent Sir Keir lives to fight another day and the next election is up for grabs; found guilty and he will have no choice but to resign, the Corbynites may make a comeback and Boris will be PM until the time of his choosing.
The Corbynites won't make a comeback. That strand of the Labour Party is over for the foreseeable future; a Corbyn tribute act wouldn't get anywhere with the members now (or the MPs for that matter).
Obviously we need to see what happens - this would actually be very good for Starmer et al if the police say nothing rules were broken - but we're back to the whole issue of "someone who would resign over this wouldn't have broken the rules in the first place". So I would expect Starmer to cling on like Johnson has.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.
This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.
This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.
The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.
And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
They’ve been laughably dire for years. I can’t understand why they seem to find it so difficult to put together an engaging election night/day offering now.
Sky tend to do it a bit better. Neither are a patch on the US networks for the American elections who often have even LESS to work with given the slow pace of their results.
I am trying to remember a really good documentary about UK elections and the mechanics of same, that I saw years back - black & white, presenter in buttoned over coat. Interviews with the workers at various levels, minor political activists etc.
Surely this kind of stuff would be a good way to "fill out" an election night program? These days, cheap as chips to do.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
Vinda-cation for Topping.
Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
I don't know about that. Labour's prospects might saag, though.
🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size
📸 picture of Met officers at gathering
🥘 £200 order - not including beer
👁🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted
🤷🏻♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open
Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.
It's the cover-up that gets you.
Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.
Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.
Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.
Except if they are not guilty. You could consider that. I imagine there will be an investigation and nothing will be found. No fixed penalty. That may well make the story for Johnson worse, as the story then becomes one of a desperate smear to detract from his own wrong doing.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
Vinda-cation for Topping.
Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
I don't know about that. Labour's prospects might saag, though.
There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.
This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.
Looks like the SLDs have cashed in that loan with interest & penalty clauses.
Does the below mean Alba will be without elected representation, Kenny M & Hanvey aside?
It was always going to end thus.
I can see the attraction for a certain type of dedicated, lifelong independence campaigner (eg Kenny). But there is absolutely zero attraction for younger folk and people who are softer on or newly converted to independence (last decade).
If Starmer accepts an FPN Starmer must both resign both the leadership and his seat. I hope he doesn't get an FPN as Beergate really isn't a patch on Partygate and misleading the House, but if convicted he must go.
Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:
Grn +150% SLD +70% SLab + 17% SNP -2% Ind -13% SCon -21%
Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
Not necessarily. In West Oxfordshire, we have three Independents: One's temporarily left the Tories, but has promised to return when Johnson's been fired One used to be Labour, but stormed out when Starmer took Corbyn's whip away The third left the Tories over a planning dispute, and is now a member of whatever the Farage Party's calling itself this week.
The only thing our Independents share is that they loathe the Tories under Johnson's control more than the LibDems, Labour or Greens do.
Has to be said everyone who was slagging off the Daily Mail need rethink that. They've got a major scalp here even with just an investigation, if Keir gets a FPN then it's all over, that's been the major driving force of public anger with the Tories, if it also spreads to Labour they have got no USP, they are running a "the Tories but less corrupt" play but that only works if they are less corrupt in practice, a FPN for Keir will be 5 points off Labour overnight, at least.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too. Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too. Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
The BBC are reporting that it was deliberately delayed until after the vote.
FPT @Nigelb I understand, thank you. Does that mean they are going to ban contraception that does the same thing, IVF, any research on fertilised eggs. Presumably so.
Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too. Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
To be fair, they are just following the lead of the Met.
Comments
The Tories have lost control of another council to no overall control - Huntingdonshire.
It has been in Conservative control since 1976, and is the council of ex-prime minister John Major's former constituency.
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-news-labour-conservatives-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-politics-latest-12593360
I'm really intrigued about this. More rural votes counted in the daytime?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906695#Comment_3906695
If the rules were the same then if Boris was in the wrong, so was SKS.
The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.
Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
If he has, then he must resign immediately.
It is over.
FPT
@Nigel_Foremain
'You have the ideal result for you IMO. If Labour had done too well, Johnson would be toast and the Tory Party would regenerate itself. This way The Clown most likely remains clinging on by his fingernails maximising the chances of a Labour victory. This does not thrill me, but it should please you. '
My own sentiments exactly, Nigel.
Labour is doing better but I suspect some of this is less to do with Starmer and Labour policies and more to do with the fact they’re the default choice with the Tories self imploding. This does give the Tories a way back in when it comes to the “Crunch” - i.e the moment when the election is called where you have to make up your mind whether you really want to change governments or not.
At this point I can see anything from Lab largest party in hung Parliament to Tory majority of 30 or so. I think the next GE complain is going to be pretty nasty and ill-mannered and the Tories are going to pull out every trick in the book. As I mentioned in the previous thread, I think a lot of the attacks will be targeted at the “woke elite” and there’s a good chance it might just save them in some marginals.
Edit: wrong council, sorry!
This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Middleton Park (Leeds):
SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
GRN: 3.9% (New)
LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)
SDP GAIN from Labour.
12:50 PM · May 6, 2022
Boris Johnson could call a snap election for next month. Kills off leadership talk and he might just buy himself 5 more years on a slender majority. That would be sufficient to ride out the shitstorm which is coming.
If they go to the polls in 2 years they haven't a prayer.
Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
“Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
I mean, 80s tribute acts are popular. Any Liberal Party wins out there? I miss them.
Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.
And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
And Keir wanted to keep those stupid rules for even longer, even after the vaccines had been rolled out, and made a stink about others breaching them.
Sod the lot of them. Boris, Keir, Sturgeon, Drakeford - they all broke the rules, they all imposed/voted for them. They should all go, clear them all out.
While OGH's header is correct - this is not a transfer of power to Labour- it is a dramatic collapse in Tory fortunes.
If rules were broken, Keir is finished clearly. But as a former DPP he must know one way or the other.
I'm not religious, but "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is a good line and Keir has been throwing plenty of stones about cake/alcohol while he knew he was guilty of the same offence so 🤷♂️
This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.
This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1522557754480734208
Wow, deja vu. Have Labour not learnt the lesson from what Boris did?
Probably even bigger than Hull, at a top of Libdem hopeometer at start of evening.
Probably massive really. Biblical.
I for have cool suggestion Ed, really cool, you like this, don’t use mallet to knock down the blue wall boxes down this time. Use a suitcase with clanking bottles inside.
Then give me all the bottles.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000116
Does the below mean Alba will be without elected representation, Kenny M & Hanvey aside?
However, If he does get a FPN, Starmer deserves to go, just for being a complete fucking idiot by banging on how BJ’s transgressions when he was doing the same thing himself *
He doesn’t even have BJ’s excuse of being a disorganised prat. He’s a QC and was head of the CPS. Imagine having him as your barrister in a trial. Christ.
Ps maybe Mike should change the title for the header…
* if he is found guilty of course
However a much stronger chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament with Liberal Democrats support
Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.
It really is that simple.
Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.
Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.
😀
Sky tend to do it a bit better. Neither are a patch on the US networks for the American elections who often have even LESS to work with given the slow pace of their results.
🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size
📸 picture of Met officers at gathering
🥘 £200 order - not including beer
👁🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted
🤷🏻♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open
Andy Burnham to stand?
It's the cover-up that gets you.
Sad really.
First Stephen Lawrence killers now ...........
Surely this kind of stuff would be a good way to "fill out" an election night program? These days, cheap as chips to do.
I can see the attraction for a certain type of dedicated, lifelong independence campaigner (eg Kenny). But there is absolutely zero attraction for younger folk and people who are softer on or newly converted to independence (last decade).
If Starmer accepts an FPN Starmer must both resign both the leadership and his seat. I hope he doesn't get an FPN as Beergate really isn't a patch on Partygate and misleading the House, but if convicted he must go.
Can your boy Burnham make himself available?
CultistSupporter: Just wait for the council elections, then you'll see out strength.... oh.One's temporarily left the Tories, but has promised to return when Johnson's been fired
One used to be Labour, but stormed out when Starmer took Corbyn's whip away
The third left the Tories over a planning dispute, and is now a member of whatever the Farage Party's calling itself this week.
The only thing our Independents share is that they loathe the Tories under Johnson's control more than the LibDems, Labour or Greens do.