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A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageA LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

The big message from the local election results is that the Tories suffered a lot of losses, particularly in places in the South which the party once regarded as its homeland.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    1st like Labour
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864
    edited May 6
    2nd like the Lib Dems, obvs
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    edited May 6
    The anti-Tory vote is getting stronger and more organised across Britain. There is no longer a significant UKIP/Reform vote for the Tories to squeeze. NOM must now be favourite in 2024 and that probably does mean Starmer (or his replacement) in 10 Downing Street.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464
    I have Starmer green as next PM. The biggest threat to the bet is Johnson going down the plughole with the economy before a GE.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    BREAKING: Conservatives lose Huntingdonshire to no overall control

    The Tories have lost control of another council to no overall control - Huntingdonshire.

    It has been in Conservative control since 1976, and is the council of ex-prime minister John Major's former constituency.

    https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-news-labour-conservatives-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-politics-latest-12593360
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    This is getting worse for the tories.

    I'm really intrigued about this. More rural votes counted in the daytime?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    It looks like any route will not be through the Brexit-supporting, middle England, traditional swing seats, but instead circumventing via a few dozen losses to "generic opposition" in hitherto surprising places in the South of England, plus less surprising reversions in Wales, Scotland, and Celtic extremities of England.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,498
    on SKS beergate my comment was, as ever, on the button.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906695#Comment_3906695

    If the rules were the same then if Boris was in the wrong, so was SKS.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    TOPPING said:

    on SKS beergate my comment was, as ever, on the button.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3906695#Comment_3906695

    If the rules were the same then if Boris was in the wrong, so was SKS.

    Well Durham Police will presumably confirm if Starmer has broken the rules.

    If he has, then he must resign immediately.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 503

    nico679 said:

    If Starmer receives a FPN he would have to resign . This would put the spotlight on the fact Johnson hasn’t . Of course he has no shame and will try and cling on .

    I think - rightly or wrongly - Starmer would stay on, because like the Tories there wouldn't be an obvious successor. None of the factions (even the Corbynites - they need Starmer to lose the next election) in the PLP want a leadership contest anytime soon.
    Come to think of it, I suppose an Yvette Cooper coronation is possible if Starmer did have to go. She's the only possible candidate who'd probably be able to be up to it from the off.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Liberal Democrats GAIN Somerset from Conservative.

    It is over.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Lab gain West Dunbartonshire ... v interesting
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,173
    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,391
    edited May 6


    FPT

    @Nigel_Foremain

    'You have the ideal result for you IMO. If Labour had done too well, Johnson would be toast and the Tory Party would regenerate itself. This way The Clown most likely remains clinging on by his fingernails maximising the chances of a Labour victory. This does not thrill me, but it should please you. '

    My own sentiments exactly, Nigel.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    edited May 6
    I think the next GE is still very much up in the air (unfortunately).

    Labour is doing better but I suspect some of this is less to do with Starmer and Labour policies and more to do with the fact they’re the default choice with the Tories self imploding. This does give the Tories a way back in when it comes to the “Crunch” - i.e the moment when the election is called where you have to make up your mind whether you really want to change governments or not.

    At this point I can see anything from Lab largest party in hung Parliament to Tory majority of 30 or so. I think the next GE complain is going to be pretty nasty and ill-mannered and the Tories are going to pull out every trick in the book. As I mentioned in the previous thread, I think a lot of the attacks will be targeted at the “woke elite” and there’s a good chance it might just save them in some marginals.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465
    Cicero said:

    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.

    There were obviously a number of folk who might describe themselves as "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209
    edited May 6

    Liberal Democrats GAIN Somerset from Conservative.

    It is over.

    Huh, the Tories had 13 of 50 seats before?

    Edit: wrong council, sorry!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,197
    edited May 6
    There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.

    This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    WHAT!!!

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    Middleton Park (Leeds):

    SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
    LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
    CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
    GRN: 3.9% (New)
    LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)

    SDP GAIN from Labour.
    12:50 PM · May 6, 2022
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    So with the coppers confirming that they will be investigating SKS I return to my previous suggestion.

    Boris Johnson could call a snap election for next month. Kills off leadership talk and he might just buy himself 5 more years on a slender majority. That would be sufficient to ride out the shitstorm which is coming.

    If they go to the polls in 2 years they haven't a prayer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,498
    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465
    Heathener said:

    BREAKING: Conservatives lose Huntingdonshire to no overall control

    The Tories have lost control of another council to no overall control - Huntingdonshire.

    It has been in Conservative control since 1976, and is the council of ex-prime minister John Major's former constituency.

    https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-news-labour-conservatives-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-politics-latest-12593360

    That is a shocker. Huntingdon is about as true blue as, er Westminster. Oh, hang on.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    Turns out

    WHAT!!!

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    Middleton Park (Leeds):

    SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
    LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
    CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
    GRN: 3.9% (New)
    LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)

    SDP GAIN from Labour.
    12:50 PM · May 6, 2022

    LOL!

    I mean, 80s tribute acts are popular. Any Liberal Party wins out there? I miss them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    edited May 6
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Yup. Don’t agree with you much on here but the conclusion we have to draw from this is that we must never again pass such draconian laws. And we might need a few politicians to be burnt by those laws for the lesson to sink in.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    edited May 6

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?

    Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.

    The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.

    And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Well said! 👍

    And Keir wanted to keep those stupid rules for even longer, even after the vaccines had been rolled out, and made a stink about others breaching them.

    Sod the lot of them. Boris, Keir, Sturgeon, Drakeford - they all broke the rules, they all imposed/voted for them. They should all go, clear them all out.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,507
    The overnights seem to have flattered the Conservatives, somewhat against expectation. Or expectation here, anyway: several commenters noted that 'it looks bad for the Tories now, but when the better results come in tomorrow, the narrative will already have been established".

    While OGH's header is correct - this is not a transfer of power to Labour- it is a dramatic collapse in Tory fortunes.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    A Labour spokesperson said: “We’re obviously happy to answer any questions there are and we remain clear that no rules were broken.”

    If rules were broken, Keir is finished clearly. But as a former DPP he must know one way or the other.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Foxy said:

    I have Starmer green as next PM. The biggest threat to the bet is Johnson going down the plughole with the economy before a GE.

    Or perhaps him being a man of principle and resigning should he be fined...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Can we have naan of those silly puns. It won't help you to curry favour with other posters
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    The landscape of British politics, perhaps for decades to come, hinges upon these findings. If found innocent Sir Keir lives to fight another day and the next election is up for grabs; found guilty and he will have no choice but to resign, the Corbynites may make a comeback and Boris will be PM until the time of his choosing.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    biggles said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?

    Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
    Same thing happened with Downing Street though, so turnabout is fair play.

    I'm not religious, but "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is a good line and Keir has been throwing plenty of stones about cake/alcohol while he knew he was guilty of the same offence so 🤷‍♂️
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    A lot of the Conservative losses are lagging the electoral performance at other levels - like the Southern Democrat congressmen who held on until Obamacare. This is true in a lot of London areas like Wandsworth and even Westminster. So they are more likely to fear losses that may be leading parliamentary losses. However, after 1997 Lib Dems have converted only a few local heartlands to seats, even in 2005-10. So even if local MPs are scared, you can see why Conservative national leaders may treat these Southern losses as a bluff.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 872
    A Labour Party spokesperson said: “We’re obviously happy to answer any questions there are and we remain clear that no rules were broken.”
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1522557754480734208

    Wow, deja vu. Have Labour not learnt the lesson from what Boris did?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Well said! 👍

    And Keir wanted to keep those stupid rules for even longer, even after the vaccines had been rolled out, and made a stink about others breaching them.

    Sod the lot of them. Boris, Keir, Sturgeon, Drakeford - they all broke the rules, they all imposed/voted for them. They should all go, clear them all out.
    Raise the barricade eh comrade!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 6
    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    "Ambushed with a curry and a beer" will be the line by the end of the day lol.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    AlistairM said:

    A Labour Party spokesperson said: “We’re obviously happy to answer any questions there are and we remain clear that no rules were broken.”
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1522557754480734208

    Wow, deja vu. Have Labour not learnt the lesson from what Boris did?

    The longer they keep to that line the worse it looks
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Liberal Democrats to GAIN Somerset from Conservative

    Probably even bigger than Hull, at a top of Libdem hopeometer at start of evening.

    Probably massive really. Biblical.

    I for have cool suggestion Ed, really cool, you like this, don’t use mallet to knock down the blue wall boxes down this time. Use a suitcase with clanking bottles inside.

    Then give me all the bottles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,590

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Vinda-cation for Topping.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    Liberal Democrats become the largest party in Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives lose control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000116
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    Cicero said:

    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.

    Pro business, remainer, small liberal revenge on the rather declasse Johnson Ukipervatives?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027
    Alistair said:

    There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.

    This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.

    Looks like the SLDs have cashed in that loan with interest & penalty clauses.

    Does the below mean Alba will be without elected representation, Kenny M & Hanvey aside?






  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350

    biggles said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?

    Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
    Same thing happened with Downing Street though, so turnabout is fair play.

    I'm not religious, but "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" is a good line and Keir has been throwing plenty of stones about cake/alcohol while he knew he was guilty of the same offence so 🤷‍♂️
    Yeah I agree with that. What he did is nothing compared to the “bring your own booze” in the garden nonsense, but is clearly the same as the “birthday party”.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Vinda-cation for Topping.
    Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,044

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    TBH, I’m with @TOPPING, fuck them all, the draconian rules were stupid beyond belief.

    However, If he does get a FPN, Starmer deserves to go, just for being a complete fucking idiot by banging on how BJ’s transgressions when he was doing the same thing himself *

    He doesn’t even have BJ’s excuse of being a disorganised prat. He’s a QC and was head of the CPS. Imagine having him as your barrister in a trial. Christ.

    Ps maybe Mike should change the title for the header…

    * if he is found guilty of course
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    The results so far suggest still very little chance of a Labour majority at the next general election.

    However a much stronger chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament with Liberal Democrats support
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.

    Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.

    Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Democrats become the largest party in Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives lose control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000116

    You predicted the Tories would lose control. Good spot.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    Alistair said:

    There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.

    This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.

    I’ve been pointing that out for years, and being routinely ridiculed around here. It is not SNP and SLab VI that SCon strategists ought to worry about, it is SLD VI. If we see significant SCon to SLD tactical unwind in parliamentary elections then the Scottish Tories are totally fucked.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,044

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?

    😀
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.

    The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.

    And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.

    They’ve been laughably dire for years. I can’t understand why they seem to find it so difficult to put together an engaging election night/day offering now.

    Sky tend to do it a bit better. Neither are a patch on the US networks for the American elections who often have even LESS to work with given the slow pace of their results.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,135

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Instant korma's gonna get you.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    Tabman said:

    Cicero said:

    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.

    Pro business, remainer, small liberal revenge on the rather declasse Johnson Ukipervatives?
    I suppose it might tell us something about how the next LibDem manifesto will line up (or should line up). A “continuity coalition” policy slate is probably the sweet spot in these seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Democrats become the largest party in Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives lose control

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000116

    You predicted the Tories would lose control. Good spot.
    My parents still live there, as well as being a Remain area there was opposition to local development plans
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    By Election - Ashton-under-Lyne?

    Andy Burnham to stand?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,590

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Vinda-cation for Topping.
    Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
    I don't know about that. Labour's prospects might saag, though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636
    I may need a new avatar :lol:
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 787

    WHAT!!!

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    Middleton Park (Leeds):

    SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
    LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
    CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
    GRN: 3.9% (New)
    LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)

    SDP GAIN from Labour.
    12:50 PM · May 6, 2022

    Yeah I saw that. Previous cllr stood down so no incumbency effect. Still, an interesting result!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    biggles said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?

    Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
    But it could be they had police present, spoke to detail guarding the revellers, in the same way at least someone knew all through Boris denials in commons that he was lying, just not knowing what to do about it. So do we know who leaked all Partygate and beergate stuff to the media to kick off the investigations. Do we really know 🤔
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 552
    It is me or does the English electoral map look a little bit more like the American one today ie a land divided sharply between never the twain shall meet liberal diverse cities and populist towns/hinterlands?

    Sad really.

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    biggles said:

    Tabman said:

    Cicero said:

    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.

    Pro business, remainer, small liberal revenge on the rather declasse Johnson Ukipervatives?
    I suppose it might tell us something about how the next LibDem manifesto will line up (or should line up). A “continuity coalition” policy slate is probably the sweet spot in these seats.
    Absolutely (my personal viewpoint as well as the strategic one). There's far too much authoritarianism around at present in the "main" parties
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,263

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    The landscape of British politics, perhaps for decades to come, hinges upon these findings. If found innocent Sir Keir lives to fight another day and the next election is up for grabs; found guilty and he will have no choice but to resign, the Corbynites may make a comeback and Boris will be PM until the time of his choosing.
    The Corbynites won't make a comeback. That strand of the Labour Party is over for the foreseeable future; a Corbyn tribute act wouldn't get anywhere with the members now (or the MPs for that matter).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Obviously we need to see what happens - this would actually be very good for Starmer et al if the police say nothing rules were broken - but we're back to the whole issue of "someone who would resign over this wouldn't have broken the rules in the first place". So I would expect Starmer to cling on like Johnson has.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Well done the Daily Mail.

    First Stephen Lawrence killers now ...........
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 787

    A Labour spokesperson said: “We’re obviously happy to answer any questions there are and we remain clear that no rules were broken.”

    If rules were broken, Keir is finished clearly. But as a former DPP he must know one way or the other.

    Well my prediction yesterday that beergate would disappear hasn't aged well...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806

    Heathener said:

    p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.

    The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.

    And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.

    They’ve been laughably dire for years. I can’t understand why they seem to find it so difficult to put together an engaging election night/day offering now.

    Sky tend to do it a bit better. Neither are a patch on the US networks for the American elections who often have even LESS to work with given the slow pace of their results.
    I am trying to remember a really good documentary about UK elections and the mechanics of same, that I saw years back - black & white, presenter in buttoned over coat. Interviews with the workers at various levels, minor political activists etc.

    Surely this kind of stuff would be a good way to "fill out" an election night program? These days, cheap as chips to do.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,350
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Vinda-cation for Topping.
    Rather takes the spice out of the election results.
    I don't know about that. Labour's prospects might saag, though.
    He may wish he’d not been so gobi.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 872

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.

    Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.

    Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.

    Except if they are not guilty. You could consider that. I imagine there will be an investigation and nothing will be found. No fixed penalty. That may well make the story for Johnson worse, as the story then becomes one of a desperate smear to detract from his own wrong doing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Gained 43 Councillors and 2 By Elections what a day!!!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Alistair said:

    There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.

    This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.

    Looks like the SLDs have cashed in that loan with interest & penalty clauses.

    Does the below mean Alba will be without elected representation, Kenny M & Hanvey aside?


    It was always going to end thus.

    I can see the attraction for a certain type of dedicated, lifelong independence campaigner (eg Kenny). But there is absolutely zero attraction for younger folk and people who are softer on or newly converted to independence (last decade).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,579

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    It is a very serious development BJO.

    If Starmer accepts an FPN Starmer must both resign both the leadership and his seat. I hope he doesn't get an FPN as Beergate really isn't a patch on Partygate and misleading the House, but if convicted he must go.

    Can your boy Burnham make himself available?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,197

    Alistair said:

    There's wards where the SNP first pref vote has gone down and they still take a seat of the SCons.

    This should spell extreme danger for the SCons at both Westminster and Holyrood, so many of their seats are based on "borrowed" Lib Dem votes.

    Looks like the SLDs have cashed in that loan with interest & penalty clauses.

    Does the below mean Alba will be without elected representation, Kenny M & Hanvey aside?

    Alba CultistSupporter: Just wait for the council elections, then you'll see out strength.... oh.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,149

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 324



    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?

    Not necessarily. In West Oxfordshire, we have three Independents:
    One's temporarily left the Tories, but has promised to return when Johnson's been fired
    One used to be Labour, but stormed out when Starmer took Corbyn's whip away
    The third left the Tories over a planning dispute, and is now a member of whatever the Farage Party's calling itself this week.

    The only thing our Independents share is that they loathe the Tories under Johnson's control more than the LibDems, Labour or Greens do.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Has to be said everyone who was slagging off the Daily Mail need rethink that. They've got a major scalp here even with just an investigation, if Keir gets a FPN then it's all over, that's been the major driving force of public anger with the Tories, if it also spreads to Labour they have got no USP, they are running a "the Tories but less corrupt" play but that only works if they are less corrupt in practice, a FPN for Keir will be 5 points off Labour overnight, at least.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,149
    edited May 6
    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282
    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Instant korma's gonna get you.
    D'oh! Piaza
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The BBC are reporting that it was deliberately delayed until after the vote.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    edited May 6
    FPT @Nigelb I understand, thank you. Does that mean they are going to ban contraception that does the same thing, IVF, any research on fertilised eggs. Presumably so.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?
This discussion has been closed.