Sinn Fein Have Seven MLAs elected so far including Gerry Kelly (Belfast North) and Michelle O'Neill (Mid Ulster).
Any projection from results who tops the poll?
Hard to say because you have to consider second and subsequent preferences if the first preference isn't elected. Alliance is a lot more transfer friendly than DUP.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
I can't help feeling that the Scottish Tory performance would have been slightly less disastrous if Douglas Ross had not rowed back on his position that Boris should resign.
Maybe not, but it's hard to see what he gained in any way by doing it. Boris and his allies wont thank him for rowing back and it's just made him look like a complete wally.
It is delightful seeing Labour control Worthing and Crawley in West Sussex.
Both have Tory constituencies at Westminster level I think. Has anyone seen a decent list of MPs whose seats might be at risk on the basis of these local election results?
John Redwood, IDS, Peter Bottomley, Nicky Aitken, Jonathan Lord, the Barnet Tory MPs amongst others. Maybe even Greg Clarke. Plus a few redwall MPs in areas like Hartlepool.
The Enfield Labour MPs might be a bit nervous on the other hand as might Sunderland MPs
I think Greg Clark is pretty safe. The constituency extends into the rural area, not just T Wells town, and he's a sane Remainer.
The Tories on Tunbridge Wells council have a chequered history, so there's also a local effect on the council side.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
Or how people voted in the referendum correlates with how they will tend to vote based on a basket of other issues?
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Someone I know fell foul of this recently. The problem is that the 10 year rule isn't 10 years from the point you were issued the passport, it's 10 years from the point it was issued minus three months.
You can get a new passport from nine months out. Mine was issued 16 Dec 2013 and expires 16 August 2024. So I really need to get a new passport after the end of the next football season to avoid having problems in autumn 2023.
The scale and intensity of the horrors are beyond comprehension. They don't even have the excuse that the Soviet army had in 1945, of having been brutalised by what had been done to them, or the exhaustion and sheer fear of US soldiers in the latter years of Vietnam. Nor do they have the kind of perverted logic which motivated Nazi horrors in WWII (and I don't think the Wehrmacht was like this).It's not even as though they have been torturing to get information, it seems to be torture, rape, mutilation and murder just for the sake of it.
What is clear is that no-one in Ukraine, or, if it comes to it, anywhere else in Eastern Europe, is going to do anything other than fight to the death if necessary against Russia. They're not going to surrender or sign some imposed 'peace' treaty.
I never understood the logic of this behaviour. As a coward I would not hesitate to surrender if I thought I was going to be well treated and I was in a sticky situation, but if I thought I was going to be tortured or killed I wouldn't.
There's no logic to it, quite the opposite. They are insane, or insanely evil.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
Seems reasonable. These things not totally clear, but nearer 500 than 200 (and it's close to that) just feels like indication of a bad day.
Rumours of another Russian warship attaining protected reef status remain unconfirmed. But in the meantime, I think we can all enjoy this little rhyme:
Andrew Carnegie @ACPCarnegie · 2m Admiral Makarov meets Neptune Far out to sea And a celebration is heard Cry's of Ukrainian glee But Posidon yells out Its all Greek to me As Russia notes the weather And how rough the waves can be
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
Down 372 now according to the BBC. I think it's much worse for the Tories than today's narratives are suggesting. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a delayed backlash, and over the weekend Tory MPs and councillors realise just how bad it is and start attributing blame.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Hard luck. Still, at least you're free now when you get that call to go the Lords!
Someone I know fell foul of this recently. The problem is that the 10 year rule isn't 10 years from the point you were issued the passport, it's 10 years from the point it was issued minus three months.
You can get a new passport from nine months out. Mine was issued 16 Dec 2013 and expires 16 August 2024. So I really need to get a new passport after the end of the next football season to avoid having problems in autumn 2023.
Part of the reason I like having two passports ...
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Sorry to hear it John, blame the buffoon in Number 10.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
The slightly less well-off parts of Surrey are still safely Conservative: Spelthorne, Runnymede&Weybridge, Surrey Heath. The LDs won't win any of those types of seats at the GE. The problem is SW Surrey, Epsom&Ewell, etc.
I’m not sure anyone in Surrey would class Surrey Heath and Runnymede/Weybridge as less well off. Spelthorne - absolutely - but that’s a bit of an odd one due to the proximity of London/ Stanwell
If I understand correctly, Spelthorne is not “really” Surrey.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
That 500 number wasn't floated by CCHQ, it was Martin Baxter's prediction.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
IS that because....
The tories are too tory or
The tories are not offering a proper blue low tax free market alternative.
I live in Esher& Walton and for me its definitely the latter. Tory MP, lib dem MP, whats the difference?
Brexit and the Conservatives are more economically statist than they used to be and less pure classical liberals
Listening to Ed Davey these lib dems seem pretty statist to me....but there it is...
Davey is though an Orange Book LD and also opposed Brexit
Agree and I am in the same category as are most of the LDs I know in Surrey. In fact I think most of us feel the Tories interfere in peoples live more than we would.
The scale and intensity of the horrors are beyond comprehension. They don't even have the excuse that the Soviet army had in 1945, of having been brutalised by what had been done to them, or the exhaustion and sheer fear of US soldiers in the latter years of Vietnam. Nor do they have the kind of perverted logic which motivated Nazi horrors in WWII (and I don't think the Wehrmacht was like this).It's not even as though they have been torturing to get information, it seems to be torture, rape, mutilation and murder just for the sake of it.
What is clear is that no-one in Ukraine, or, if it comes to it, anywhere else in Eastern Europe, is going to do anything other than fight to the death if necessary against Russia. They're not going to surrender or sign some imposed 'peace' treaty.
I never understood the logic of this behaviour. As a coward I would not hesitate to surrender if I thought I was going to be well treated and I was in a sticky situation, but if I thought I was going to be tortured or killed I wouldn't.
I’ve seen one explanation that appears plausible, at least
Apparently there is an enormous cohort of Russian soldiers - often senior officers, or higher NCOs - who have been horrifically brutalised by their experiences in Chechnya, Syria, etc. Sometimes they are actually Chechen. Unfortunately (for the poor women of Ukraine) they are also the “best”, toughest soldiers so they are the ones taking villages and winning the odd battle and getting access to Ukrainian civilians. Who they then proceed to rape, torture, multilate, terrorise and butcher indiscriminately, because they have grown to love doing that
Eg in one account I read, it was these grizzled soldiers that did all the atrocities, whereas it was the young naive conscripts from Irkutsk who were ashamed and horrified at these crimes, and helped Ukrainians to escape the torture chambers
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
Yes. Which is what we would expect in "informal pact" territory (with a little extra sauce for the LDs and Greens because of the LE overperformance we talked about yesterdsy).
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Condolences, seems you were another Surrey Tory victim of the yellow peril
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
IS that because....
The tories are too tory or
The tories are not offering a proper blue low tax free market alternative.
I live in Esher& Walton and for me its definitely the latter. Tory MP, lib dem MP, whats the difference?
Brexit and the Conservatives are more economically statist than they used to be and less pure classical liberals
Listening to Ed Davey these lib dems seem pretty statist to me....but there it is...
Davey is though an Orange Book LD and also opposed Brexit
Agree and I am in the same category as are most of the LDs I know in Surrey. In fact I think most of us feel the Tories interfere in peoples live more than we would.
Non socialist, social liberals is your category and that for most LD voters in Surrey yes
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
The optics look horrendous.
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
Why has he lost if he is found not guilty?
You are a great poster but are churning out some absolutely hysterical posts this afternoon.
Have you been up all night?
He did the same with the Saville slur. I don't know whether he's being sarcastic. I think he must be.
All he needs to do is say unequivocally is that he'll resign if he gets prosecuted
‘I didn’t believe stories of atrocities in Ukraine. But then I saw the photos https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/may/06/ukraine-photos-poland-border-refugees-rape-atrocities ...Then a woman in her 70s, who said she was from one of the occupied areas close to Irpin and Bucha, crossed the border with her daughter and great-granddaughter. They were being treated by medical volunteers at the French mission. The daughter, who was in her 50s, had cancer and was very sick. The medics could not believe that someone like this, with a hole in her stomach and no bandages, was so desperate to leave that she would risk travelling for so many hours with no medical support.
The woman told me that her grandson served in a military brigade that had been the first to go into recently liberated areas. She said he took photos of what he had seen. She showed them to me, and it was only then I understood it was worse than I could have ever imagined.
After she saw the photos, she went to the hospital, took out her daughter’s drip, helped her to the car and they took off She said that after her grandson had returned from duty, he had come to her house and begged her to leave Ukraine. He told her that women were being raped and killed by Russian troops but she refused to leave. In desperation, he showed her the photos and she knew she had to flee.
One of the photos she showed me was the hanging body of a young girl. She couldn’t have been more than 14...
Oh God. Sometimes I want us to nuke Russia
Medieval levels of barbarism.
What are these kids - and it seems to be a lot of conscripted very young kids in RU army - like in home life that this kind of depravity comes so easily?
I think it is perhaps partly a function of command structure. Soldiery of any nation will do depraved things if they go rogue and do not think that there might be consequences, or perhaps where they have been encouraged to dehumanise themselves. It may also be a consequence of the dehumanising nature of the Russian state, where only strength is respected and humility and kindness frowned upon. It is ironic that an army that is claiming to "denazify" is actually behaving as badly or worse than real Nazis. Someone needs to pay for these crimes.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
I can see it working. Many voters will conclude that the economy is crocked regardless of who is in charge, so they may as well vote against all the aggravation that the targeted online ads from the Tories will warn them about.
John Major did it with back to basics and a soapbox, David Cameron did it with smart targeting and goading the Lib Dems to disown all of the coalition wins, Boris or whoever replaces him will do it with smart targeting and forcing Labour to eat shit on cultural issues and Brexit every day.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
It is delightful seeing Labour control Worthing and Crawley in West Sussex.
Both have Tory constituencies at Westminster level I think. Has anyone seen a decent list of MPs whose seats might be at risk on the basis of these local election results?
John Redwood, IDS, Peter Bottomley, Nicky Aitken, Jonathan Lord, the Barnet Tory MPs amongst others. Maybe even Greg Clarke. Plus a few redwall MPs in areas like Hartlepool.
The Enfield Labour MPs might be a bit nervous on the other hand as might Sunderland MPs
I think Greg Clark is pretty safe. The constituency extends into the rural area, not just T Wells town, and he's a sane Remainer.
The Tories on Tunbridge Wells council have a chequered history, so there's also a local effect on the council side.
Indeed, though even many of the rural Tory seats were lost to the Independent Tunbridge Wells Alliance today
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.
Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
I think you might be overestimating JohnO's influence. The matter is currently in the hands of MPs alone.
Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Blue wall looking rather like rubble.
Mr JOhnson does like being filmed taking a JCB to a wall to demolish it.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
Yes, with the caveat that if they'd been seats lost to Labour that would have been a lot worse than seats lost to the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems will not form the next government. If the voters wanted Labour to replace the Tories in government then the Tories would have lost more council seats to Labour. So there's some justification for writing off these losses as a midterm protest vote.
The Lib Dems have done very well. The signs of life in Scotland are particularly surprising, but heartening for them.
There is a young Russian couple staying in my hotel in Kusadasi, Turkey
They seem happily in love, I wonder if they are on their honeymoon. They are polite and well-behaved and their happiness is infectious
And yet now I read about the atrocities in Ukraine and I look at them in the swimming pool and I briefly think “I hope you drown, you c*nts”
Of course I should not think that. It is a horrible reaction. This couple are presumably innocent civilians. And yet the flash of real anger was there, inside me
This terrible war is possibly going to breed hatred that will last a generation. That will be Putin’s legacy. Russia will be hated
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Gosh I have mixed feelings being a LD. I wished you luck and thought you were pretty safe. And so close as well. Commiserations.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up. They were both dire for the Tories.
With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.
Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!
If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?
Possibly one Alliance candidate and two DUP candidates, so DUP votes split between the two candidates, both below the quota, but hoping to get above with transfers.
Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
Not a great performance for Labour in Lothian so far, outwith Edinburgh, though as usual the West Lothian Question remains unanswered ...
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Anecdote from Scotland. Turned up the polling place yesterday to find the staff deep in conversation. "Ah, a voter" and swung into action. There were five candidates to be distributed over 4 STV seats in the constituency.
Don't get the impression anyone is trying very hard.
Anecdote from Edinburgh
Scottish Tory lost by a dozen votes
There were 50 spoiled ballots with X in the box instead of 1
Those shouldn't have been spoiled. A clear preference has been indicated by the voter.
Agreed. A single 'X' on an STV ballot paper should be treated as '1'
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.
Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!
If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?
Possibly one Alliance candidate and two DUP candidates, so DUP votes split between the two candidates, both below the quota, but going to get above with transfers.
Sky is giving the full results on its website. Strangford count 1 here.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Gosh I have mixed feelings being a LD. I wished you luck and thought you were pretty safe. And so close as well. Commiserations.
Many thanks to you and others for kind comments. Everything seemed to be running fairly smoothly but the occasional comments and emails (on the lines that you're a good Councillor but I can't vote for you in these circumstances) added to instinctive caution, so in the event, I was not shocked at the result.
Interestingly, the postal votes (you can see them being validated at the beginning of the count) were extremely positive but the ballot boxes on the day were pretty grim. It was inevitably going to be close, and my goodness it was.
I have never before seen a STV election where X is counted as spoil rather than 1. The only exceptions are in elections that require complete preferences as in Australia.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up. They were both dire for the Tories.
I deliberately left off rural places because not sure how to slot them into the new order. Conservative or Lib Dem, clearly not Labour. Cumbria is an interesting case. Parts of it are quite post-ish industrial and deprived
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
And the Lib-Con battleground tends to exaggerate the seat changes, because wards tend to be smaller outside London and the Mets.
As for when the Conservatives can think of talking to Remainia again, it depends on when the UK's relationship with the rest of Europe becomes something they can live with.
I notice that Starmer was up in Carlisle today to mark Labour's Cumberland victory. It's not long since people on here asserted, or sneered, that he wouldn't dream of leaving the scene of the London victories. I hope he dropped in to see @Cyclefree's garden.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
They were ones I lifted off a website which I freely accept is not exactly neutral on the matter so they may well be excessively favourable. That is not my point. My point is that people will choose the statistics that confirm their original view and discount those that don't. It is an emotional thing and it is deeply held. And it is certainly one of the reasons the Tories are being hammered in certain parts of Surrey.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.
Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!
Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
Not a great performance for Labour in Lothian so far, outwith Edinburgh, though as usual the West Lothian Question remains unanswered ...
East Lothian was strong for Labour (even gaining a 2nd seat in Musselburgh despite their candidate being dropped at the last minute plus increasing their vote in Haddington on 2017 despite bombing there in 2019) but the SNP did well to beat Labour by 1 seat in Midlothian and consolidate their position in West Lothian.
I think Fife was probably more disappointing for Labour as the SNP/LDs benefitted more from the squeeze on the Tory vote there.
Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
Not a great performance for Labour in Lothian so far, outwith Edinburgh, though as usual the West Lothian Question remains unanswered ...
East Lothian was strong for Labour (even gaining a 2nd seat in Musselburgh despite their candidate being dropped at the last minute plus increasing their vote in Haddington on 2017 despite bombing there in 2019) but the SNP did well to beat Labour by 1 seat in Midlothian and consolidate their position in West Lothian.
I think Fife was probably more disappointing for Labour as the SNP/LDs benefitted more from the squeeze on the Tory vote there.
Ah, West Lothian in - the Natiuonal says
"The SNP returned 15 councillors, up two on their 2017 result.
Labour have won 12 seats, the same as they did five years ago.
The Tories have dropped three seats, returning just four councillors, while the LibDems managed to pick up one (from nothing in 2017).
There is still one independent on the council.
The 33-seat council means 17 seats are needed for a majority. It is too soon to say who might be able to take control in the coming weeks, but the SNP might fancy a minority administration."
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
Half way between disappointment and disaster, with most English councils declared.
We seem to have had a British version of the famous US blue-shift where in the late evening it all looks very Republican, and the media narratives get set. Then as the following day progresses we actually end up with a very strong Democrat result but the media has moved on by then.
When I woke up the consensus was that the Tories were bloodied but still standing, and Labour had disappointed. Now it looks much more like a disaster for the Tories, although largely thanks to a yellow shift rather than a red one.
Comments
To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
The Tories on Tunbridge Wells council have a chequered history, so there's also a local effect on the council side.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10781699/Woman-barred-Ryanair-flight-passport-expiry-date-despite-valid-2023.html
Someone I know fell foul of this recently. The problem is that the 10 year rule isn't 10 years from the point you were issued the passport, it's 10 years from the point it was issued minus three months.
You can get a new passport from nine months out. Mine was issued 16 Dec 2013 and expires 16 August 2024. So I really need to get a new passport after the end of the next football season to avoid having problems in autumn 2023.
Andrew Carnegie
@ACPCarnegie
·
2m
Admiral Makarov meets Neptune
Far out to sea
And a celebration is heard
Cry's of Ukrainian glee
But Posidon yells out
Its all Greek to me
As Russia notes the weather
And how rough the waves can be
Johnson had a drinks thing in the garden with wine and it was not investigated as it was work related. There is precedent there.
The rules were clear - see BBC - and there is no evidence they were not followed.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220503.html
Apparently there is an enormous cohort of Russian soldiers - often senior officers, or higher NCOs - who have been horrifically brutalised by their experiences in Chechnya, Syria, etc. Sometimes they are actually Chechen. Unfortunately (for the poor women of Ukraine) they are also the “best”, toughest soldiers so they are the ones taking villages and winning the odd battle and getting access to Ukrainian civilians. Who they then proceed to rape, torture, multilate, terrorise and butcher indiscriminately, because they have grown to love doing that
Eg in one account I read, it was these grizzled soldiers that did all the atrocities, whereas it was the young naive conscripts from Irkutsk who were ashamed and horrified at these crimes, and helped Ukrainians to escape the torture chambers
It is the officer class which has become inhuman
All he needs to do is say unequivocally is that he'll resign if he gets prosecuted
Who is this genius Havering aren't finishing until Monday evening.
One ward needs a recount with clear heads (fair enough), but delaying that long is taking the Mickey.
SDP gain from Labour in Leeds / Middleton Park.
- Cities with universities: Labour
- Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
- Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
SNP 37 (-2)
Lab 36 (+5)
Grn 10 (+3)
Con 2 (-6)
Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
The Lib Dems will not form the next government. If the voters wanted Labour to replace the Tories in government then the Tories would have lost more council seats to Labour. So there's some justification for writing off these losses as a midterm protest vote.
The Lib Dems have done very well. The signs of life in Scotland are particularly surprising, but heartening for them.
They seem happily in love, I wonder if they are on their honeymoon. They are polite and well-behaved and their happiness is infectious
And yet now I read about the atrocities in Ukraine and I look at them in the swimming pool and I briefly think “I hope you drown, you c*nts”
Of course I should not think that. It is a horrible reaction. This couple are presumably innocent civilians. And yet the flash of real anger was there, inside me
This terrible war is possibly going to breed hatred that will last a generation. That will be Putin’s legacy. Russia will be hated
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
(If you are reading this Stodge, yes I’m making a joke)
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
They were both dire for the Tories.
Aaron Bell MP @AaronBell4NUL
With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.
Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!
The figures you are alluding to, are total votes cast for ALL of a party's candidates.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1521812569442467841
Strangford count 1 here.
https://election.news.sky.com/elections/northern-ireland-2022/strangford-893
Interestingly, the postal votes (you can see them being validated at the beginning of the count) were extremely positive but the ballot boxes on the day were pretty grim. It was inevitably going to be close, and my goodness it was.
But a fair victory and I've no complaints.
As for when the Conservatives can think of talking to Remainia again, it depends on when the UK's relationship with the rest of Europe becomes something they can live with.
I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.
What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
I think Fife was probably more disappointing for Labour as the SNP/LDs benefitted more from the squeeze on the Tory vote there.
AND was it decisive re: the result?
"The SNP returned 15 councillors, up two on their 2017 result.
Labour have won 12 seats, the same as they did five years ago.
The Tories have dropped three seats, returning just four councillors, while the LibDems managed to pick up one (from nothing in 2017).
There is still one independent on the council.
The 33-seat council means 17 seats are needed for a majority. It is too soon to say who might be able to take control in the coming weeks, but the SNP might fancy a minority administration."
It was decisive.
When I woke up the consensus was that the Tories were bloodied but still standing, and Labour had disappointed. Now it looks much more like a disaster for the Tories, although largely thanks to a yellow shift rather than a red one.