Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
The quotes are endless and deeply uncomfortable for Starmer. Here he says that even the act of being investigated was “shameful.”
Oof. This always seems to happen with these sorts of political scandals, one side starts throwing rocks at the other, then its soon found that the rock throwers were doing the same thing, and everyone gets dragged into the mud.
I try to live my (outside of internet blogs) as not being over critcial of anything as I muck up all the time. I am a great believer in Karma. SKS really didn't need to go all in on Partygate like he did, the press were doing that for him, and now it has come back to haunt him. I make it a 90% chance he gets a FPN as the police would not have annouced they were investigating without pretty conclusive evidence.
I wonder if Boris actually played a blinder here: by being so insufferably smug over PartyGate he goaded Sir Keir and Labour into letting their emotions run away with them. Never hate your enemy and all that.
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
Given this is Labour, Streeting will win. Labour doesn't do women.
Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.
I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.
Booze ordered separately from food. We had the whole idiotic working lunch with or without booze when it was the Tories and now we're about to do the same with labour. It will be the most trivial of discussions while the nation's economy burns yet here we are anyway.
If Keir gets a FPN it's all over. I think he'd actually have to appeal it.
Agreed, the whole thing is a drop in the ocean compared to Johnson's misbehaviour, but Starmer staked the house on Johnson having to resign, so appeal the FPN, or go he must.
If Starmer resigns, he looks honourable compared to the weaselling clinger-on Bozzatron.
Reeves takes over and will be popular.
Could well work out quite nicely.
...or Burgon takes over and Boris Johnson remains PM sine die.
Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.
I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.
Booze ordered separately from food. We had the whole idiotic working lunch with or without booze when it was the Tories and now we're about to do the same with labour. It will be the most trivial of discussions while the nation's economy burns yet here we are anyway.
If Keir gets a FPN it's all over. I think he'd actually have to appeal it.
Agreed, the whole thing is a drop in the ocean compared to Johnson's misbehaviour, but Starmer staked the house on Johnson having to resign, so appeal the FPN, or go he must.
If Starmer resigns, he looks honourable compared to the weaselling clinger-on Bozzatron.
Reeves takes over and will be popular.
Could well work out quite nicely.
Tories tactically would be best to throw Boris under the bus, time for RON.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
And in a separated part of it. And she is not a civil servant or legislator or spad.
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
She was doing the early morning shift on the BBC when I got up. A north east voice might work well for Labour, but I've not seen enough of her. Reeves seems the safe bet (I don't mean for us to bet on!) to me.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
Serious crimes they certainly do. Fixed penalty offences they don't and their position was that they were not going to here either until they bowed to political pressure. Durham Police, having been more robust and not even having watched the video originally, have now done the same. It is wrong.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
The danger is that Labour might dump SKS and get someone decent as leader.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
The danger is that Labour might dump SKS and get someone decent as leader.
Lol, who? Labour's front bench is as bereft of talent as the Tory front bench.
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
So you think the Tories will lose just 25-30 seats in total?
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
But you would instantly recognise the brilliant haircut.
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me, those are the ones that really seem to show that rules were not deemed to apply to them. I don't particularly care whether Johnson was present, if he was aware of them (and it's hard to believe he was not).
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
Serious crimes they certainly do. Fixed penalty offences they don't and their position was that they were not going to here either until they bowed to political pressure. Durham Police, having been more robust and not even having watched the video originally, have now done the same. It is wrong.
But the Met Police were in No 10, so we are surely dealing with the serious crime of breach of public duty on the police's part.
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
I said "surrounding buildings".
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
So you think the Tories will lose just 25-30 seats in total?
If there's swingback from these polls at this stage of the electoral cycle?
Seems a decent prediction. Not that the Tories deserve to win a majority - but the Opposition don't deserve gains either.
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Your asterisked statement has answered your own question.
The optics make Starmer look as bad as Johnson whatever the reality. Even without an FPN, I fear Starmer is finished whilst Johnson is emboldened.
Why vote any more? We should just allow the Mail and the Telegraph to decide the Executive.
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
I'd go for Reeve or Phillipson as next leader. Preferably after Starmer becomes PM, though.
p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.
The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.
And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.
There really is no comparison. Sky have knocked the Beeb out of the park. The BBC coverage is absolutely hopeless.
Sky are on to the developing story: the collapsing Blue Wall in the south. The Tories are losing councils all over the shop SE of a line between the Wash and the Solent.
Trivia BBC just released the much more important PNS
I said at the time of Barnard Castle that it was an opportunity for Keir Starmer to demonstrate some leadership by concentrating on encouraging people to continue to follow the rules, rather than to complain that Cummings breaking them would encourage others to do likewise.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
This is what I was saying a few threads ago. The big unknown in this was how the transfers change rather than the 1st preferences. If we're seeing a collapse in Lab->Con transfers, that could explain this, and it could indicate a bit of churn in the vote. Perhaps some SNP voters returning to Labour but remaining sympathetic to SNP, or perhaps Lab voters coming back out to vote after a few years of not bothering and really wanting to stick it to the Tories. It's perhaps indicative that Con->Lab switching is less of a factor too. But all this will need a more robust analysis, this is only hand waving right now.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
The police’s explanation was that they weren’t *investigating* old COVID breaches, but if someone rocked up and presented evidence of law-breaking, then they would act. The Sue Gray report did the investigating and the police felt they couldn’t ignore what was put in front of them. That kinda makes sense, although they did then do their own additional investigation with the questionnaires.
Presumably Durham police are doing the same. Evidence has been put in front of them, so they’ll look at it.
Isn't it the case that if SKS gets a FPN that much of Labour's (limited) progress will have been lost? I think the Tories have much more to fear from the LibDems in their traditional heartlands. The only thing which will change that is Boris going.
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
So you think the Tories will lose just 25-30 seats in total?
Around that, yes. Even if they keep Boris. There's a lot of people who stayed home yesterday that will turn out for a GE. Labour are still not trusted on Brexit and cultural issues, heading into a GE that will all be turned up to 11 and Labour will become the party that wants to force boys to wear dresses and hand the keys of Westminster Palace to Brussels. There's barely a fag paper between the parties on the substance of the economy or anything relevant to real life and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top, especially if they keep Keir as leader, he's such a wet wipe.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me, those are the ones that really seem to show that rules were not deemed to apply to them. I don't particularly care whether Johnson was present, if he was aware of them (and it's hard to believe he was not).
He doesn’t have to go. What will happen if he doesn’t? Sod all.
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Your asterisked statement has answered your own question.
The optics make Starmer look as bad as Johnson whatever the reality. Even without an FPN, I fear Starmer is finished whilst Johnson is emboldened.
Why vote any more? We should just allow the Mail and the Telegraph to decide the Executive.
If Starmer doesn’t receive a FPN then I think he’s okay . What happens if Johnson gets more FPNs .
If Starmer receives a FPN and resigns and Johnson gets another FPN then how on earth can the Tories stick with him .
"The err, right honourable member from North London (jeers) might be too frit to take responsibility for his illegal and shameful, umm, beergate scandal, but err, I can re-assure the house that I am fully committed to doing what the public really want me to, to get on with the job of being a great leader, and deliver a world beating plan for the people of this country."
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Your asterisked statement has answered your own question.
The optics make Starmer look as bad as Johnson whatever the reality. Even without an FPN, I fear Starmer is finished whilst Johnson is emboldened.
Why vote any more? We should just allow the Mail and the Telegraph to decide the Executive.
I think your last line is a little ridiculous given the left-wing media's obsession with partygate.
we'll have to wait to see which of /if the partygate allegations get further FPNs. But weren't they all at, or around, the environs of No. 10? (There are so many allegations it's hard to keep track of them all...)
But this was a get-together of people from lots of places, in a third place, well outside normal working hours. As I said, from a virus-spreading POV it's much worse.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
A reliable rule of thumb is that approx one third of SLab voters are pro-independence, one third are diehard Unionists, and a third are fairly neutral/swing voters on the constitutional question. They’re mixed up kids.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
In the 2006 Local Elections (the same seats as yesterdays) the National Vote Share was:
Tory 39% Labour 26% Lib Dem 25%
That was after 9 years of Labour and the tories failed to win a majority at the next GE. So a 13% lead in these seats did not lead to a tory majority, so how will a 5% lead compare?
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
I said "surrounding buildings".
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
They are not contiguous as residential spaces. The No. 10 flat and the No. 11 flat are separate to each other and separate to the office spaces.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
In the 2006 Local Elections (the same seats as yesterdays) the National Vote Share was:
Tory 39% Labour 26% Lib Dem 25%
That was after 9 years of Labour and the tories failed to win a majority at the next GE. So a 13% lead in these seats did not lead to a tory majority, so how will a 5% lead compare?
I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.
Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.
Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.
Except if they are not guilty. You could consider that. I imagine there will be an investigation and nothing will be found. No fixed penalty. That may well make the story for Johnson worse, as the story then becomes one of a desperate smear to detract from his own wrong doing.
They may not be guilty - I have no way of knowing. But the very fact the police have reopened it because new information has come to light is dodgy. They did not get their story straight, as we saw with the Rayner aspect of it. It may not fully stink yet, but it must be hard to say it isn't a bit wiffy.
It's incompetence at best. How can we expect a big-brained lawyer such as Starmer to run the country if he cannot even tell the police who was at a political get-together (note, I avoid the word 'party') ?
The Tory attack pamphlets now write themselves: picture of Sir Keir with Peroni in hand; caption 'If you can't trust him to follow lockdown rules...'
I don't think so because that implicitly attacks their own leader too. What it could do is neutralise what would otherwise be a strong attack line from Labour.
A great pity because this was about the PM lying to parliament. The hypocrisy aspect is secondary. Unfortunately it's the hypocrisy aspect - the "one rule for them" business - which got the public riled and thus became the story.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
Serious crimes they certainly do. Fixed penalty offences they don't and their position was that they were not going to here either until they bowed to political pressure. Durham Police, having been more robust and not even having watched the video originally, have now done the same. It is wrong.
But the Met Police were in No 10, so we are surely dealing with the serious crime of breach of public duty on the police's part.
These FPNs were clearly time barred but it was not politic to challenge them. The same will be true for SKS who will have had a security detail. It's really a piece of nonsense and we are going to have people running to the cops every time there is an argument now taking what are political issues into the area of criminal justice. The political issue here is that Boris is a liar and lied to the HoC. SKS didn't (although his hypocrisy is pretty shocking). That is what matters.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
In the 2006 Local Elections (the same seats as yesterdays) the National Vote Share was:
Tory 39% Labour 26% Lib Dem 25%
That was after 9 years of Labour and the tories failed to win a majority at the next GE. So a 13% lead in these seats did not lead to a tory majority, so how will a 5% lead compare?
Yes and 2019 6 monthe before GE2019 it was also level and look what happened
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Good for you - you actually consider things and change your mind. Have a Hawick Ball (metaphorically).
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
AP (via Seattle Times) - Dem flips Michigan [Legislature] seat after GOP candidate’s rape comments
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — A Democratic legislative candidate in Michigan won a special election for a heavily Republican seat over a GOP opponent who made controversial comments about rape, Russia’s war in Ukraine and other issues, narrowing Republicans’ state House majority.
Carol Glanville defeated Robert “RJ” Regan by 11 percentage points Tuesday in a Kent County district that her Republican predecessor carried by 26 points in 2020.
Regan had been denounced by GOP leaders since shortly after his upset victory in a four-person primary. In March, while advocating for decertifying the 2020 presidential election during a livestream hosted by a conservative group, Regan responded to a panelist who said it is too late to do anything that her attitude is like what he tells his three daughters: “Well if rape is inevitable, you should just lie back and enjoy it. That’s not how we roll. That’s not how I won this election. We go right at it.”
Regan said he regretted using the analogy but claimed it was taken out of context by members of his own party and reporters. He also had called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “fake war just like the fake pandemic” and had shared antisemitic social media posts.
With Glanville’s win, Democrats shaved Republicans’ edge to 57-53.
Glanville, a Walker city commissioner, said voters “stood up against hate, conspiracies and Republican extremism, and stood up for our shared west Michigan values of decency, community and working together to solve problems.”
The House Republican Campaign Committee did not help Regan in the race, unlike its efforts in other special elections Tuesday. The Michigan Freedom Network, an independent political action committee with ties to the DeVos family, spent $3,500 supporting Republican write-in candidate Mike Milanowski.
Regan told a conservative talk radio host Wednesday that his loss was a “big, big win for… the RINO establishment who proved beyond a shadow of doubt that they would rather have a Democrat in office than an America First Republican candidate like me. … It’s just despicable what they’re doing.”
Michigan Republican Party spokesperson Gustavo Portela responded that Regan was “possibly the worst candidate I’ve ever seen,” tweeting that he failed to coalesce his own party because of his “gaffes.” He said the GOP will win back the seat, which is changing under redistricting, in November.
from Kent Co Michigan elections dept: Carol Glanville 7,288 Robert Regan 5,697 Total write-in 1,117
SSI - Kent Co is mostly upscale Detroit suburbia, used to be a GOP stronghold, but has been swinging to Dems for a while, 45 pushing them over the edge to supporting Biden in 2020.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
A reliable rule of thumb is that approx one third of SLab voters are pro-independence, one third are diehard Unionists, and a third are fairly neutral/swing voters on the constitutional question. They’re mixed up kids.
The results so far suggest still very little chance of a Labour majority at the next general election.
However a much stronger chance of Starmer becoming PM in a hung parliament with Liberal Democrats support
Labour winning up to 15-20 seats in Scotland is a serious possibility now even if it's a long shot. But yes, 300 seats for Labour and 20+ for the LDs looks a lot more plausible today.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
I'd go for Reeve or Phillipson as next leader. Preferably after Starmer becomes PM, though.
(All for betting reasons )
PB will be in effervescent raptures were it to be a Rachel vs Bridget play off
That's really poor for Labour to be honest. They should be at least getting to 40% or more given everything that's been going on.
Looks very similar to the 2003 local election where Labour was at 30% and Con at 35%. The Conservatives were plotting to dump IDS at this point remember.
Lab went on to win the 2005 general election with a much reduced majority of course...
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
I preferred Nandy, although she’s been quiet of late. Streeting is a star-in-waiting.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
None of this is fixed. Labour could easily win a majority. And the Conservatives' problems could also be swiftly solved with a new (sane) leader. With an election potentially years in the future, you only need to look at how fast things can change e.g. October to January just gone to realise that making firm predictions this far out is a failure of learning from the recent past.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.
No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
Eh?? But police investigate offences after the fact all the time. (Unless you are the Met and they party in front of your eyes, obvs.)
Serious crimes they certainly do. Fixed penalty offences they don't and their position was that they were not going to here either until they bowed to political pressure. Durham Police, having been more robust and not even having watched the video originally, have now done the same. It is wrong.
But the Met Police were in No 10, so we are surely dealing with the serious crime of breach of public duty on the police's part.
These FPNs were clearly time barred but it was not politic to challenge them. The same will be true for SKS who will have had a security detail. It's really a piece of nonsense and we are going to have people running to the cops every time there is an argument now taking what are political issues into the area of criminal justice. The political issue here is that Boris is a liar and lied to the HoC. SKS didn't (although his hypocrisy is pretty shocking). That is what matters.
or you could argue the leaders thought the law didnt apply to them, snitched on each other and are surprised to be held to account for laws they themselves passed,
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
From what I've seen, I really rate Streeting but I still think Starmer has a way to go yet. Unfortunately, Streeting's penis probably rules him out. I think the Labour party is desperate to choose a woman.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
So far: SLab 151 SCon 127 SLD 44 Unionists total 322
SNP 258 Grn 16 Pro-independence total 274
Only problem is that Labour have said that they are not going to cooperate with the Tories at local level any more, so hard to see them “locking out” the pro-independence bloc.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
The Somerset County Council website is now reporting that the LibDems have taken the 56 seats they need for an absolute majority on the new Somerset unitary authority
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Exactly, I do find it odd they posters seem to forget what happens in Local Elections, the Governing party normally take heavy losses. There was even a Yes Minister show where Sir Humphrey says exactly that. .
The Somerset County Council website is now reporting that the LibDems have taken the 56 seats they need for an absolute majority on the new Somerset unitary authority
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
From what I've seen, I really rate Streeting but I still think Starmer has a way to go yet. Unfortunately, Streeting's penis probably rules him out. I think the Labour party is desperate to choose a woman.
They don't seem to, you know, actually vote for them in leadership elections though.....
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
Someone who lived through the pandemic in monastic solitude.
Comments
Just backed him at 10.5
But it’s not over yet. This has to be interim.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin.
My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
For me:
- Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said.
- Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might.
- The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me, those are the ones that really seem to show that rules were not deemed to apply to them. I don't particularly care whether Johnson was present, if he was aware of them (and it's hard to believe he was not).
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
Seems a decent prediction. Not that the Tories deserve to win a majority - but the Opposition don't deserve gains either.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
The optics make Starmer look as bad as Johnson whatever the reality. Even without an FPN, I fear Starmer is finished whilst Johnson is emboldened.
Why vote any more? We should just allow the Mail and the Telegraph to decide the Executive.
(All for betting reasons
Ultimately he has flunked the test of leadership.
It's perhaps indicative that Con->Lab switching is less of a factor too.
But all this will need a more robust analysis, this is only hand waving right now.
Presumably Durham police are doing the same. Evidence has been put in front of them, so they’ll look at it.
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
we'll have to wait to see which of /if the partygate allegations get further FPNs. But weren't they all at, or around, the environs of No. 10? (There are so many allegations it's hard to keep track of them all...)
But this was a get-together of people from lots of places, in a third place, well outside normal working hours. As I said, from a virus-spreading POV it's much worse.
LAB: 7 (+3)
CON: 4 (-3)
Council Now: CON 20, LAB 7, GRN 1, IND 1.
Conservative HOLD.
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
Tory 39%
Labour 26%
Lib Dem 25%
That was after 9 years of Labour and the tories failed to win a majority at the next GE. So a 13% lead in these seats did not lead to a tory majority, so how will a 5% lead compare?
A great pity because this was about the PM lying to parliament. The hypocrisy aspect is secondary. Unfortunately it's the hypocrisy aspect - the "one rule for them" business - which got the public riled and thus became the story.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20120116.british-unionist-party-take-seat-tories-north-lanarkshire/
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Thus far:
PC +10
WLab +3
WLD -2
WCon -3
Ind -8
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
Starmer to ????
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — A Democratic legislative candidate in Michigan won a special election for a heavily Republican seat over a GOP opponent who made controversial comments about rape, Russia’s war in Ukraine and other issues, narrowing Republicans’ state House majority.
Carol Glanville defeated Robert “RJ” Regan by 11 percentage points Tuesday in a Kent County district that her Republican predecessor carried by 26 points in 2020.
Regan had been denounced by GOP leaders since shortly after his upset victory in a four-person primary. In March, while advocating for decertifying the 2020 presidential election during a livestream hosted by a conservative group, Regan responded to a panelist who said it is too late to do anything that her attitude is like what he tells his three daughters: “Well if rape is inevitable, you should just lie back and enjoy it. That’s not how we roll. That’s not how I won this election. We go right at it.”
Regan said he regretted using the analogy but claimed it was taken out of context by members of his own party and reporters. He also had called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “fake war just like the fake pandemic” and had shared antisemitic social media posts.
With Glanville’s win, Democrats shaved Republicans’ edge to 57-53.
Glanville, a Walker city commissioner, said voters “stood up against hate, conspiracies and Republican extremism, and stood up for our shared west Michigan values of decency, community and working together to solve problems.”
The House Republican Campaign Committee did not help Regan in the race, unlike its efforts in other special elections Tuesday. The Michigan Freedom Network, an independent political action committee with ties to the DeVos family, spent $3,500 supporting Republican write-in candidate Mike Milanowski.
Regan told a conservative talk radio host Wednesday that his loss was a “big, big win for… the RINO establishment who proved beyond a shadow of doubt that they would rather have a Democrat in office than an America First Republican candidate like me. … It’s just despicable what they’re doing.”
Michigan Republican Party spokesperson Gustavo Portela responded that Regan was “possibly the worst candidate I’ve ever seen,” tweeting that he failed to coalesce his own party because of his “gaffes.” He said the GOP will win back the seat, which is changing under redistricting, in November.
from Kent Co Michigan elections dept:
Carol Glanville
7,288
Robert Regan
5,697
Total write-in
1,117
SSI - Kent Co is mostly upscale Detroit suburbia, used to be a GOP stronghold, but has been swinging to Dems for a while, 45 pushing them over the edge to supporting Biden in 2020.
I think we can certainly see somewhere between 30 and 40 Tory seat losses here without too much effort.
It’s really down to Keir now. Perhaps the best thing he could do is leave.
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
Looks very similar to the 2003 local election where Labour was at 30% and Con at 35%. The Conservatives were plotting to dump IDS at this point remember.
Lab went on to win the 2005 general election with a much reduced majority of course...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_United_Kingdom_local_elections
7 of the 10 seats up for grabs look to have gone yellow. Incredible.
So far:
SLab 151
SCon 127
SLD 44
Unionists total 322
SNP 258
Grn 16
Pro-independence total 274
Only problem is that Labour have said that they are not going to cooperate with the Tories at local level any more, so hard to see them “locking out” the pro-independence bloc.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
Labour-LibDem on 54% is a terrific anti-tory vote.
Look at the way Surrey and Somerset are turning yellow. Wow.
https://democracy.somerset.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=5&RPID=501372779
He hasn't done well enough today and the news from Durham makes him damaged goods.
Whoever replaces him must ensure they were properly locked down during Covid.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1522573340950646784?cxt=HHwWgMC-vd-YoqEqAAAA
Lab 47% Con 25%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
The low quality can be explained by the fact that the TB2 is probably some 100km away from the ship.
[Note: Not verified yet]
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1522573541698412544
WHOOOO0O00OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP
that feels good.
Haven’t seen much about Wales on here.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
- Labour to take Westminster - DONE
- Ukraine to degrade Black Sea fleet - DONE
- Alliance to come second in NI - Pending?
Haha.