As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
Interesting report from the Unionist frontline. The Orange rather than Sioux kind of lodge, I take it?
Yes, replete with pictures of William and commemorating the Battle of the Boyne. It reminded me of my favourite scene in Trainspotting 2.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Outrageous. Change your mind? Listen to reasoned argument? Where will it end?
Don't think it was me. I asked whether you'd want to delay the investigation until after the by-elections too - not particularly thoughtful!
I agree with @DavidL that in principle politicians shouldn't be treated differently by the police - there lies danger.
The problem is in both cases the police were actually present when the (alleged) lawbreaking was taking place. This was at odds with how they treated the public - remember the Derbyshire drones?
If the police find themselves in a position where they need to investigate then they shouldn't give a damn about any elections. They should probably keep it secret though until a charging decision is made.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
And isn't that where the 1992 style result comes from, a working majority but a busted flush leader. Labour are offering no serious alternative to the government on substance and are on the wrong side of the electorate with the wedge issues.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
The optics look horrendous.
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
Why has he lost if he is found not guilty?
You are a great poster but are churning out some absolutely hysterical posts this afternoon.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
I can confirm I have hacked Petes account!!
You have when I demand Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long Bailey take over...
It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
The betting on SKS exit date hasn't moved much. Still the big odds-on fav is 2024 or later.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
The optics look horrendous.
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
As long as The Cult does not try to return, then Starmer would not be a loss, but if it is seen as a gateway to reinstall the God Corbyn then Starmer (and Labour) would be better off with him in post.
PBers convinced Keir Starmer is holed below the waterline should head down to their local FOBT arcade betting shop and take 12/1 against SKS going this year (Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfred).
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
I agree. I just don't think culture war will get the Tories over the line to an overall majority. They need more and under the present leadership they are going to struggle to find it.
5% Labour lead in this local election (give the government a pasting without any real consequences + London, Wales and Scotland voting while much of Shire England isn't) is very, very poor for Lab in the circumstances.
Labour on verge of (huge) GE victory, after May 1996 local elections, total seats held:
Conservative 4276 Labour 10929 LibDem 5078
Labour on verge of (small) GE defeat, after May 2009 local elections, 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 9721 Labour 4436 LibDem 4083
Position before yesterday's local elections. 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 7408 Labour 5705 LibDem 2478
That's really useful information. Really shows that Labour are going nowhere.
I don't really think it shows that.
It does show they aren't going to get a 1997 style landslide or anything closely resembling it... a result that literally nobody with half a brain in their skull is predicting anyway.
PBers convinced Keir Starmer is holed below the waterline should head down to their local FOBT arcade betting shop and take 12/1 against SKS going this year (Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfred).
Labour on verge of (huge) GE victory, after May 1996 local elections, total seats held:
Conservative 4276 Labour 10929 LibDem 5078
Labour on verge of (small) GE defeat, after May 2009 local elections, 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 9721 Labour 4436 LibDem 4083
Position before yesterday's local elections. 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 7408 Labour 5705 LibDem 2478
That's really useful information. Really shows that Labour are going nowhere.
I don't really think it shows that.
It does show they aren't going to get a 1997 style landslide or anything closely resembling it... a result that literally nobody with half a brain in their skull is predicting anyway.
But they're not even going to get most seats. We're heading to another Tory majority, it will be the easy status quo vote and again, Labour are offering no change. It's difficult to win as an opposition offering no change. It's why remain struggled so badly.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
We are going to have a spat! 😃 as you attempt to spin and twist the psephological truth.
Brilliant. That’s woken me up into action.
I haven’t finished yet.
There’s two walls, red and blue, which slightly complicated things in terms of headlines, but not as much as the fact you can only get at seats piecemeal over many years. So if you have a bad year last year, lose seats on a council you’ve always had, you can’t wave a magic wand the following year, you can only knock over what you’ve been given to knock over. Labour couldn’t attack every seat in so many councils, for example they would have loved a lot more Dudley seats open to attack last night, this is what has actually hidden Labours success in these red wall and midlands election from the untrained eye but not from the pebble counting scientists - how can I put it any more clearer?
Not that Pebble counters always right in their guesswork. They proved a long way out on how bad it’s been for Tories in England. Just an update on what Elections Etc posted last week, Tories already 211 down in England alone with 30 still to declare. These most eminent guys reckoned about 165
PBers convinced Keir Starmer is holed below the waterline should head down to their local FOBT arcade betting shop and take 12/1 against SKS going this year (Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfred).
Labour on verge of (huge) GE victory, after May 1996 local elections, total seats held:
Conservative 4276 Labour 10929 LibDem 5078
Labour on verge of (small) GE defeat, after May 2009 local elections, 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 9721 Labour 4436 LibDem 4083
Position before yesterday's local elections. 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 7408 Labour 5705 LibDem 2478
That's really useful information. Really shows that Labour are going nowhere.
I don't really think it shows that.
It does show they aren't going to get a 1997 style landslide or anything closely resembling it... a result that literally nobody with half a brain in their skull is predicting anyway.
But they're not even going to get most seats. We're heading to another Tory majority, it will be the easy status quo vote and again, Labour are offering no change. It's difficult to win as an opposition offering no change. It's why remain struggled so badly.
Or a fairly significant Tory majority if they change the leader. Don't forget the boundary changes which give them an extra 10 seats or so.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
And isn't that where the 1992 style result comes from, a working majority but a busted flush leader. Labour are offering no serious alternative to the government on substance and are on the wrong side of the electorate with the wedge issues.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
Yes, I think 1992 is exactly the comparison. The Tories were already very unpopular, and a shambles, with the poll tax hanging over them, so the first part of the mantra that 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them' should have applied. But, as I've often said, you need to qualify that by '... as long as the opposition looks like a credible alternative'. In 1992 they didn't (as soon as they did, the Tories were toast). Currently, Starmer has made some progress in making Labour look credible, but it's not nearly enough.
Of course things can change, we might have one or even two leadership changes before the GE, but at the moment I think that's where we are.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
Barry country? And Potter?
No idea.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Have a look at nls.uk if you haven't - the online maps and local directories sections are superb.
North Belfast is SF 35%, DUP 24%, TUV 7%, UUP 6%, Other Unionist 3%, SDLP 8%, Alliance 10%.
So that will be 2 SF, 2 DUP, and 1 Alliance.
Why will the Alliance get a seat? They look awfully close to zero there.
Sinn Fein only just have enough votes for two quotas, Only a tiny vote will transfer to SDLP from them. TUV and UUP will be eliminated, and comfortably pull the DUP over two quotas, and some votes will transfer from UUP and DUP to Alliance. Even if Alliance don't reach a quota, they'll finish ahead of the SDLP, who lose a seat.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
Barry country? And Potter?
No idea.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Have a look at nls.uk if you haven't - the online maps and local directories sections are superb.
Is that link correct?
Oh, yes, but I'm not surprised you asked. . With the bits on front, it is https://www.nls.uk/
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
The optics look horrendous.
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
Why has he lost if he is found not guilty?
You are a great poster but are churning out some absolutely hysterical posts this afternoon.
Have you been up all night?
He hasn't lost but previously he said Boris should resign for even being investigated. He is now being investigated. By his previously stated rules he should resign. If he doesn't he is a hypocrite. Very damaging whatever now happens.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
I agree. I just don't think culture war will get the Tories over the line to an overall majority. They need more and under the present leadership they are going to struggle to find it.
Culture war is spice to add to your political meal, but you wouldn't want to eat nothing but ground coriander.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
And isn't that where the 1992 style result comes from, a working majority but a busted flush leader. Labour are offering no serious alternative to the government on substance and are on the wrong side of the electorate with the wedge issues.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
Yes, I think 1992 is exactly the comparison. The Tories were already very unpopular, and a shambles, with the poll tax hanging over them, so the first part of the mantra that 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them' should have applied. But, as I've often said, you need to qualify that by '... as long as the opposition looks like a credible alternative'. In 1992 they didn't (as soon as they did, the Tories were toast). Currently, Starmer has made some progress in making Labour look credible, but it's not nearly enough.
Of course things can change, we might have one or even two leadership changes before the GE, but at the moment I think that's where we are.
And 330-340 seats is where I'd rate the party right now with Boris. I think if they get rid of Boris they win back voters like us, TSE, Nigel the remainer etc... which I think pushes up Tory seats to 350-370 because they will outperform in marginal southern seats and London vs current expectations.
My wish yesterday - all of which i said was stretch, was:
- Labour to take Westminster - DONE - Ukraine to degrade Black Sea fleet - DONE - Alliance to come second in NI - Pending?
Haha.
I think it's very plain the DUP will come second.
1 result so far. For the Alliance. NI has been stuck in a death knell of religious bigotry for over a century. It would be beyond wonderful if the people there said enough.
Since the Agreement, it's gone the other way - UUP and SDLP replaced by DUP and SF.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
And isn't that where the 1992 style result comes from, a working majority but a busted flush leader. Labour are offering no serious alternative to the government on substance and are on the wrong side of the electorate with the wedge issues.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
Yes, I think 1992 is exactly the comparison. The Tories were already very unpopular, and a shambles, with the poll tax hanging over them, so the first part of the mantra that 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them' should have applied. But, as I've often said, you need to qualify that by '... as long as the opposition looks like a credible alternative'. In 1992 they didn't (as soon as they did, the Tories were toast). Currently, Starmer has made some progress in making Labour look credible, but it's not nearly enough.
Of course things can change, we might have one or even two leadership changes before the GE, but at the moment I think that's where we are.
I have thought/still think, that the 2023 or 2024 general election would be like 1992... but this local election is making me wonder if it'll be more like 1987 to be honest...
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
And isn't that where the 1992 style result comes from, a working majority but a busted flush leader. Labour are offering no serious alternative to the government on substance and are on the wrong side of the electorate with the wedge issues.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
Yes, I think 1992 is exactly the comparison. The Tories were already very unpopular, and a shambles, with the poll tax hanging over them, so the first part of the mantra that 'oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them' should have applied. But, as I've often said, you need to qualify that by '... as long as the opposition looks like a credible alternative'. In 1992 they didn't (as soon as they did, the Tories were toast). Currently, Starmer has made some progress in making Labour look credible, but it's not nearly enough.
Of course things can change, we might have one or even two leadership changes before the GE, but at the moment I think that's where we are.
I just do not see the Tories getting 43% of the vote.
Labour crap Tories crapper Lib Dems used to be crap
Labour crap Tories crapper Lib Dems even crapper still, but, by crikey, they used to be so much worse. Greens now capable of booking out a whole mid-sized local restaurant for their councillors' annual get together.
Sky news general election projection based on this year's local elections voteshare.
Hung Parliament
Conservatives 278 Labour 271 SNP 50 LDs 28
Is that inclusive of boundary changes?
Knocks on head all the spin Labour had a bad night doesn’t it.
No
Agreed. These results are appalling for Labour.
I'd say mediocre rather than appalling.
Yes, I think people betting on a Labour win in 2024 are seriously over rating this, but it's obviously not going to be a 2019 or 1983 style wipe out for them either unless Boris goes.
Completely random, but this is a great story on Carter's White House record collection.
https://www.washingtonian.com/2022/05/03/the-untold-story-of-the-white-houses-weirdly-hip-record-collection/ ...“There was an album by Randy Newman at the time called Good Old Boys, and there’s a song on there, ‘Rednecks,’ which is one of the greatest critiques of both Southern and Northern racism. I wanted to put that in. His staff person said, ‘Oh, the President loves that album.’ I thought, Okay! That sort of gave me license to make choices I thought would be a good, representative sampling rather than having to censor myself.”
The list was hashed out during sessions in a Manhattan conference room, and true to Blumenthal’s vision, the selection was decidedly more adventurous this time around: soul, punk, salsa, gospel, funk, disco, and more. There were obvious picks representing rock-and-roll’s history, with entries from the likes of Chuck Berry, Little Richard, and Elvis Presley. And popular tastes were well represented by artists such as Donna Summer, Fleetwood Mac, and Earth, Wind & Fire. Blumenthal pressed for a Latin-music section that had records from Beny Moré, Joe Bataan, and Johnny Pacheco, among others.
There were also plenty of left-field LPs—music whose inclusion, Rachlis says, offered “a certain kind of subversive joy.” Funkadelic’s Hardcore Jollies made the cut, as did Never Mind the Bollocks, Here’s the Sex Pistols and Captain Beefheart’s Trout Mask Replica. A Gil Scott-Heron compilation. Talking Heads’ More Songs About Buildings and Food. The Ramones’ Rocket to Russia...
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
I can confirm I have hacked Petes account!!
You have when I demand Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long Bailey take over...
It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
The betting on SKS exit date hasn't moved much. Still the big odds-on fav is 2024 or later.
I’d take the 12/1 that JohnL mentioned re SKS going.
If you look at this from the viewpoint of how organisations work, it’s very likely SKS / Rayner will get a FPN. Organisations hate reopening cases because it’s extra work, they look fools for not catching things first time and they are under extra pressure to make sure they get things right. If Durham is reopening, it’s because what they have is overwhelming enough where they feel they can’t stall / excuse it anyway with a “so far nothing changes our stance.”
For an organisation to say that they are reopening a case on new evidence and then turn round and say nothing has changed is very rare because, if you’ve seen the evidence and gotten over the hurdle to reopen, you have already mainly made up your mind of the outcome.
The use of the word “significant” is also key. Not only does it suggest, mmm, the new evidence is significant but it also gives the Police a chance to reverse ferret without looking like idiots.
Which leads onto a chance of a possibly worse scenario for Labour. Not only do the Police issue a FPN but that they (not) deliberately throw Labour under the bus by claiming the party misled them when they looked at the matter originally. Which then really does mean SKS goes.
Well, here's my totally uninformed spin on the evening:
1. It was a disappointing night for Labour, as they failed to make much progress in the old Red Wall seats. Where they did do well was in urban areas where they already dominate. That said, it was not a disaster. They will have gained councils and councillors, but given the cost of living crisis and Partygate, they would have expected to do a lot better.
2. It was a good night for the Liberal Democrats. 19% in NEV vote share is their second best result in the last eleven years, behind only the 2019 Conservative meltdown. I suspect their success is that Labour leaners have forgiven the LDs for the coalition. Still: if we're going to be realistic, that probably only takes the LDs back up to 18-22 seats at the next election.
3. The Conservatives can breathe a sigh of relief. And next year the hurdle is so low that they are almost certain to show gains. That being said, there is one little fly in the ointment. Their NEV share was not that great. 30% is a pretty poor showing, and if the Greens go Red/Yellow at the next General Election, then there is a meaningful risk they could lose both their majority and their largest party status.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
I can confirm I have hacked Petes account!!
You have when I demand Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long Bailey take over...
It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
The betting on SKS exit date hasn't moved much. Still the big odds-on fav is 2024 or later.
I’d take the 12/1 that JohnL mentioned re SKS going.
If you look at this from the viewpoint of how organisations work, it’s very likely SKS / Rayner will get a FPN. Organisations hate reopening cases because it’s extra work, they look fools for not catching things first time and they are under extra pressure to make sure they get things right. If Durham is reopening, it’s because what they have is overwhelming enough where they feel they can’t stall / excuse it anyway with a “so far nothing changes our stance.”
For an organisation to say that they are reopening a case on new evidence and then turn round and say nothing has changed is very rare because, if you’ve seen the evidence and gotten over the hurdle to reopen, you have already mainly made up your mind of the outcome.
The use of the word “significant” is also key. Not only does it suggest, mmm, the new evidence is significant but it also gives the Police a chance to reverse ferret without looking like idiots.
Which leads onto a chance of a possibly worse scenario for Labour. Not only do the Police issue a FPN but that they (not) deliberately throw Labour under the bus by claiming the party misled them when they looked at the matter originally. Which then really does mean SKS goes.
I'm not convinced that Starmer/Rayner will get an FPN. Indeed, I think it is probably only a 20-25% chance.
And if they do get one, I think it is probably only 50/50 they go.
So the odds are probably worth a flutter - but not a large one.
North Belfast is SF 35%, DUP 24%, TUV 7%, UUP 6%, Other Unionist 3%, SDLP 8%, Alliance 10%.
So that will be 2 SF, 2 DUP, and 1 Alliance.
Why will the Alliance get a seat? They look awfully close to zero there.
Sinn Fein only just have enough votes for two quotas, Only a tiny vote will transfer to SDLP from them. TUV and UUP will be eliminated, and comfortably pull the DUP over two quotas, and some votes will transfer from UUP and DUP to Alliance. Even if Alliance don't reach a quota, they'll finish ahead of the SDLP, who lose a seat.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
We are in Angus but nearer Dundee in Birkhill. I am more familiar with the area you were describing that you walked in Dundee. 55 years ago I used to deliver newspapers in that road before school. The Sinderins is a great part of Dundee.
Sky news general election projection based on this year's local elections voteshare.
Hung Parliament
Conservatives 278 Labour 271 SNP 50 LDs 28
Is that inclusive of boundary changes?
Knocks on head all the spin Labour had a bad night doesn’t it.
No
Agreed. These results are appalling for Labour.
I'd say mediocre rather than appalling.
I'd go with a touch above mediocre and not quite reaching good. There are things to worry about in there, no question, but the bottom line is a party on track to being competitive at the next GE, something which looked fanciful not so long ago.
Well, here's my totally uninformed spin on the evening:
1. It was a disappointing night for Labour, as they failed to make much progress in the old Red Wall seats. Where they did do well was in urban areas where they already dominate. That said, it was not a disaster. They will have gained councils and councillors, but given the cost of living crisis and Partygate, they would have expected to do a lot better.
2. It was a good night for the Liberal Democrats. 19% in NEV vote share is their second best result in the last eleven years, behind only the 2019 Conservative meltdown. I suspect their success is that Labour leaners have forgiven the LDs for the coalition. Still: if we're going to be realistic, that probably only takes the LDs back up to 18-22 seats at the next election.
3. The Conservatives can breathe a sigh of relief. And next year the hurdle is so low that they are almost certain to show gains. That being said, there is one little fly in the ointment. Their NEV share was not that great. 30% is a pretty poor showing, and if the Greens go Red/Yellow at the next General Election, then there is a meaningful risk they could lose both their majority and their largest party status.
No views on Scotland or Northern Ireland yet.
1. But surely we assess on the swing you get in what’s available to you, for how are you supposed to take councils or raise more eyebrows when the seats are locked till another year?
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
I can see it working. Many voters will conclude that the economy is crocked regardless of who is in charge, so they may as well vote against all the aggravation that the targeted online ads from the Tories will warn them about.
‘I didn’t believe stories of atrocities in Ukraine. But then I saw the photos https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/may/06/ukraine-photos-poland-border-refugees-rape-atrocities ...Then a woman in her 70s, who said she was from one of the occupied areas close to Irpin and Bucha, crossed the border with her daughter and great-granddaughter. They were being treated by medical volunteers at the French mission. The daughter, who was in her 50s, had cancer and was very sick. The medics could not believe that someone like this, with a hole in her stomach and no bandages, was so desperate to leave that she would risk travelling for so many hours with no medical support.
The woman told me that her grandson served in a military brigade that had been the first to go into recently liberated areas. She said he took photos of what he had seen. She showed them to me, and it was only then I understood it was worse than I could have ever imagined.
After she saw the photos, she went to the hospital, took out her daughter’s drip, helped her to the car and they took off She said that after her grandson had returned from duty, he had come to her house and begged her to leave Ukraine. He told her that women were being raped and killed by Russian troops but she refused to leave. In desperation, he showed her the photos and she knew she had to flee.
One of the photos she showed me was the hanging body of a young girl. She couldn’t have been more than 14...
What is going to shock all the parties and all the pundits, how easily the blue wall has crumbled this afternoon.
I suspect, being the big honest people they are, Thrasher and Curtice will appear soon saying they didn’t expect that many Tory losses in England alone.
I think I am learning, my learning take out now is how the result and media narrative builds piecemeal, as there are so many different battles going on in different places, there isn’t really that much uniformity across it all.
My wish yesterday - all of which i said was stretch, was:
- Labour to take Westminster - DONE - Ukraine to degrade Black Sea fleet - DONE - Alliance to come second in NI - Pending?
Haha.
I think it's very plain the DUP will come second.
1 result so far. For the Alliance. NI has been stuck in a death knell of religious bigotry for over a century. It would be beyond wonderful if the people there said enough.
Since the Agreement, it's gone the other way - UUP and SDLP replaced by DUP and SF.
I know. Its what gives me hope about the surge in the Alliance vote.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
I can see it working. Many voters will conclude that the economy is crocked regardless of who is in charge, so they may as well vote against all the aggravation that the targeted online ads from the Tories will warn them about.
John Major did it with back to basics and a soapbox, David Cameron did it with smart targeting and goading the Lib Dems to disown all of the coalition wins, Boris or whoever replaces him will do it with smart targeting and forcing Labour to eat shit on cultural issues and Brexit every day.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
I can see it working. Many voters will conclude that the economy is crocked regardless of who is in charge, so they may as well vote against all the aggravation that the targeted online ads from the Tories will warn them about.
John Major did it with back to basics and a soapbox, David Cameron did it with smart targeting and goading the Lib Dems to disown all of the coalition wins, Boris or whoever replaces him will do it with smart targeting and forcing Labour to eat shit on cultural issues and Brexit every day.
Good luck with the Brexit eat s*** theme Actually come to think of it when we harmonise with Trump's food standards that is exactly what we will be doing.
The significant election is the one no-one's paying any attention to here: Northern Ireland. Hard to read on partial results but it looks like Alliance and TUV both doing very well, UUP and SDLP doing badly and DUP doing badly, but not as catastrophically as some expected.
It seems voters in Northern Ireland are simultaneously becoming more extreme and more moderate.
Comments
All electricity interconnectors nearly maxed out on exports. Very unusual.
Tories have only won 2 councillors in East Lothian ffs. That is truly dire.
Labour 9, SNP 7, Conservatives 4, Greens 1, Independent 1
https://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/20119249.live-east-lothian-council-election-count-2022/
Labour 35%
Conservatives 30%
LDs 19%
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1522566266850000898?s=20&t=4cSrlUjr0F1g6r3oYPeTTQ
Labour on verge of (huge) GE victory, after May 1996 local elections, total seats held:
Conservative 4276
Labour 10929
LibDem 5078
Labour on verge of (small) GE defeat, after May 2009 local elections, 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 9721
Labour 4436
LibDem 4083
Position before yesterday's local elections. 12 years in office, total seats held:
Conservative 7408
Labour 5705
LibDem 2478
Labour crap
Tories crapper
Lib Dems used to be crap
I agree with @DavidL that in principle politicians shouldn't be treated differently by the police - there lies danger.
The problem is in both cases the police were actually present when the (alleged) lawbreaking was taking place. This was at odds with how they treated the public - remember the Derbyshire drones?
If the police find themselves in a position where they need to investigate then they shouldn't give a damn about any elections. They should probably keep it secret though until a charging decision is made.
I think I'll let the markets overreact a bit and start betting on a Tory majority over the next few days. If this is the best that Labour can do with extremely favourable conditions then it's not enough and in a street fight the Tories will come out on top. Keir is the equivalent of a knife being brought to a gun fight.
The Liberal Democrats have performed best this evening.
Therefore...
Being invisible and charisma free is the best way to electoral success.
Do I have that right?
EDIIWNBPMEITLDDOKTE
You are a great poster but are churning out some absolutely hysterical posts this afternoon.
Have you been up all night?
FOBT arcadebetting shop and take 12/1 against SKS going this year (Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfred).It does show they aren't going to get a 1997 style landslide or anything closely resembling it... a result that literally nobody with half a brain in their skull is predicting anyway.
There’s two walls, red and blue, which slightly complicated things in terms of headlines, but not as much as the fact you can only get at seats piecemeal over many years. So if you have a bad year last year, lose seats on a council you’ve always had, you can’t wave a magic wand the following year, you can only knock over what you’ve been given to knock over. Labour couldn’t attack every seat in so many councils, for example they would have loved a lot more Dudley seats open to attack last night, this is what has actually hidden Labours success in these red wall and midlands election from the untrained eye but not from the pebble counting scientists - how can I put it any more clearer?
Not that Pebble counters always right in their guesswork. They proved a long way out on how bad it’s been for Tories in England. Just an update on what Elections Etc posted last week, Tories already 211 down in England alone with 30 still to declare. These most eminent guys reckoned about 165
So that will be 2 SF, 2 DUP, and 1 Alliance.
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https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022
Of course things can change, we might have one or even two leadership changes before the GE, but at the moment I think that's where we are.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=30&LAB=35&LIB=19&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19&SCOTLAB=26.5&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.5&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
New boundaries: Lab 296, Con 253, LD 26, SNP 50.
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Curses
West Belfast will be SF 4, PBP 1.
Tories crapper
Lib Dems even crapper still, but, by crikey, they used to be so much worse.
Greens now capable of booking out a whole mid-sized local restaurant for their councillors' annual get together.
https://www.washingtonian.com/2022/05/03/the-untold-story-of-the-white-houses-weirdly-hip-record-collection/
...“There was an album by Randy Newman at the time called Good Old Boys, and there’s a song on there, ‘Rednecks,’ which is one of the greatest critiques of both Southern and Northern racism. I wanted to put that in. His staff person said, ‘Oh, the President loves that album.’ I thought, Okay! That sort of gave me license to make choices I thought would be a good, representative sampling rather than having to censor myself.”
The list was hashed out during sessions in a Manhattan conference room, and true to Blumenthal’s vision, the selection was decidedly more adventurous this time around: soul, punk, salsa, gospel, funk, disco, and more. There were obvious picks representing rock-and-roll’s history, with entries from the likes of Chuck Berry, Little Richard, and Elvis Presley. And popular tastes were well represented by artists such as Donna Summer, Fleetwood Mac, and Earth, Wind & Fire. Blumenthal pressed for a Latin-music section that had records from Beny Moré, Joe Bataan, and Johnny Pacheco, among others.
There were also plenty of left-field LPs—music whose inclusion, Rachlis says, offered “a certain kind of subversive joy.” Funkadelic’s Hardcore Jollies made the cut, as did Never Mind the Bollocks, Here’s the Sex Pistols and Captain Beefheart’s Trout Mask Replica. A Gil Scott-Heron compilation. Talking Heads’ More Songs About Buildings and Food. The Ramones’ Rocket to Russia...
If you look at this from the viewpoint of how organisations work, it’s very likely SKS / Rayner will get a FPN. Organisations hate reopening cases because it’s extra work, they look fools for not catching things first time and they are under extra pressure to make sure they get things right. If Durham is reopening, it’s because what they have is overwhelming enough where they feel they can’t stall / excuse it anyway with a “so far nothing changes our stance.”
For an organisation to say that they are reopening a case on new evidence and then turn round and say nothing has changed is very rare because, if you’ve seen the evidence and gotten over the hurdle to reopen, you have already mainly made up your mind of the outcome.
The use of the word “significant” is also key. Not only does it suggest, mmm, the new evidence is significant but it also gives the Police a chance to reverse ferret without looking like idiots.
Which leads onto a chance of a possibly worse scenario for Labour. Not only do the Police issue a FPN but that they (not) deliberately throw Labour under the bus by claiming the party misled them when they looked at the matter originally. Which then really does mean SKS goes.
1. It was a disappointing night for Labour, as they failed to make much progress in the old Red Wall seats. Where they did do well was in urban areas where they already dominate. That said, it was not a disaster. They will have gained councils and councillors, but given the cost of living crisis and Partygate, they would have expected to do a lot better.
2. It was a good night for the Liberal Democrats. 19% in NEV vote share is their second best result in the last eleven years, behind only the 2019 Conservative meltdown. I suspect their success is that Labour leaners have forgiven the LDs for the coalition. Still: if we're going to be realistic, that probably only takes the LDs back up to 18-22 seats at the next election.
3. The Conservatives can breathe a sigh of relief. And next year the hurdle is so low that they are almost certain to show gains. That being said, there is one little fly in the ointment. Their NEV share was not that great. 30% is a pretty poor showing, and if the Greens go Red/Yellow at the next General Election, then there is a meaningful risk they could lose both their majority and their largest party status.
No views on Scotland or Northern Ireland yet.
T I'm not convinced that Starmer/Rayner will get an FPN. Indeed, I think it is probably only a 20-25% chance.
And if they do get one, I think it is probably only 50/50 they go.
So the odds are probably worth a flutter - but not a large one.
Has to be a reasonable chance that there will be no HMQ either.
Apart from that, you are not too bad at this 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/may/06/ukraine-photos-poland-border-refugees-rape-atrocities
...Then a woman in her 70s, who said she was from one of the occupied areas close to Irpin and Bucha, crossed the border with her daughter and great-granddaughter. They were being treated by medical volunteers at the French mission. The daughter, who was in her 50s, had cancer and was very sick. The medics could not believe that someone like this, with a hole in her stomach and no bandages, was so desperate to leave that she would risk travelling for so many hours with no medical support.
The woman told me that her grandson served in a military brigade that had been the first to go into recently liberated areas. She said he took photos of what he had seen. She showed them to me, and it was only then I understood it was worse than I could have ever imagined.
After she saw the photos, she went to the hospital, took out her daughter’s drip, helped her to the car and they took off
She said that after her grandson had returned from duty, he had come to her house and begged her to leave Ukraine. He told her that women were being raped and killed by Russian troops but she refused to leave. In desperation, he showed her the photos and she knew she had to flee.
One of the photos she showed me was the hanging body of a young girl. She couldn’t have been more than 14...
I suspect, being the big honest people they are, Thrasher and Curtice will appear soon saying they didn’t expect that many Tory losses in England alone.
I think I am learning, my learning take out now is how the result and media narrative builds piecemeal, as there are so many different battles going on in different places, there isn’t really that much uniformity across it all.
Sounds like our house!
It seems voters in Northern Ireland are simultaneously becoming more extreme and more moderate.