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A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

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  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    Yes, exactly right!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    To be fair, they are just following the lead of the Met.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    What we need is RON.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    AlistairM said:

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
    Indeed, I'm awaiting a Labour front bencher to say "ambushed with a curry" or something similar.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
    Once you agree to investigate, you have to be scrupulous about not being seen to do any favours (by the same token I reckon you or I would have got away with Boris’ “birthday party”) so I agree - he’s likely to get done given what we know.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    ...on the other hand if Starmer does get a penalty and doesn't resign and the Tories then have the good sense to get rid of Johnson, then Labour are stuffed. Interesting times
  • Questions too for Durham Police about why they had not informed Starmer’s office but the papers did know.

    Corrupt.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said everyone who was slagging off the Daily Mail need rethink that. They've got a major scalp here even with just an investigation, if Keir gets a FPN then it's all over, that's been the major driving force of public anger with the Tories, if it also spreads to Labour they have got no USP, they are running a "the Tories but less corrupt" play but that only works if they are less corrupt in practice, a FPN for Keir will be 5 points off Labour overnight, at least.

    I can't see how he does not get a FPN for this as well as Angela Rayner.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
    CHB’s post gets right to the heart of this - when you look at the “significant new evidence” there’s multiple problems, not just one.

    The risk of course for Labour is that this effectively decapitates the leadership as both SKS and Rayner are both at risk here - knowing Rayner’s type well *, I think she would brazen it out and say “if BJ doesn’t resign, why should I” and she’s not a QC to boot. For SKS, the problem is he’s a QC and expected to be whiter than white. Plus people don’t like a (perceived) hypocrite.

    The other thing is whether this turn of events now encourages the Momentum types to re-enter the Labour Party - it’s hard to see an obvious successor to SKS if he (and Rayner goes) - Reeves is odd and both she and Cooper would wind up the RW voters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954

    Questions too for Durham Police about why they had not informed Starmer’s office but the papers did know.

    Corrupt.

    Is that known, or did Starmer's office just not comment.
  • Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    From the Durham Police Tweet that CHB linked to "... now, following the conclusion of the pre-election period, we can confirm that an investigation ..."

    They chose to follow purdah, they just didn't say that they were doing so.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    If Starmer is fined, he will have to go, so this is a moment of significant peril for Labour. If a new leader comes in and starts making overtures to a discredited, marginalised left, all Johnson's Christmases will have come at once. Two big Ifs. But this is the Labour party!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    To be fair, they are just following the lead of the Met.
    The Met are a paradigmatic example of a modern police force?!!? Come off it, that's the least convincing argument on PB I've seen - though it may not be yours of course.
  • RobD said:

    Questions too for Durham Police about why they had not informed Starmer’s office but the papers did know.

    Corrupt.

    Is that known, or did Starmer's office just not comment.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522561955164307458
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?

    Being indoors with people not from his household?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I may need a new avatar :lol:

    Surely the avatar more relevant now than ever 😄

    Why presume he won’t be cleared thus exonerated by the investigation? I’m convinced he will. Probably.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,765
    nico679 said:

    Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .

    Edinburgh ditto.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,020
    MrEd said:

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?

    😀
    I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.

    It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,775
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
    Not so much your post, just your rather more extreme Anglophobe partner in crime.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    ...on the other hand if Starmer does get a penalty and doesn't resign and the Tories then have the good sense to get rid of Johnson, then Labour are stuffed. Interesting times

    Have the Tories left it too late? "You're only doing it now because of the election results" etc. etc.

    The tricky thing for the Tories was, it wasn't clear who was going to get a fine. Had Sunak taken over a few months ago, would he have had to resign?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,428
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
    I agree though I think it would be funny if he tried to struggle on.

    I do fear for Labour with this development though. SKS seems like the decent woolly well-meaning type who might not have been a very good PM but at least wasn’t Boris. If he goes who do the Labour Party elect instead?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    It is a very serious development BJO.

    If Starmer accepts an FPN Starmer must both resign both the leadership and his seat. I hope he doesn't get an FPN as Beergate really isn't a patch on Partygate and misleading the House, but if convicted he must go.

    Can your boy Burnham make himself available?
    For Rayners seat as she too will have to go

    I agree with you that they wont get FPNs as Durham Police dont issue them retrospectively
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,834

    I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.

    Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.

    Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.

    Except if they are not guilty. You could consider that. I imagine there will be an investigation and nothing will be found. No fixed penalty. That may well make the story for Johnson worse, as the story then becomes one of a desperate smear to detract from his own wrong doing.
    They may not be guilty - I have no way of knowing. But the very fact the police have reopened it because new information has come to light is dodgy. They did not get their story straight, as we saw with the Rayner aspect of it. It may not fully stink yet, but it must be hard to say it isn't a bit wiffy.

    It's incompetence at best. How can we expect a big-brained lawyer such as Starmer to run the country if he cannot even tell the police who was at a political get-together (note, I avoid the word 'party') ?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    One person not respecting purdah is BoE governor Andrew Bailey.

    The tories had to go into yesterday with the economic forecast from hell resounding around the country.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    From the Durham Police Tweet that CHB linked to "... now, following the conclusion of the pre-election period, we can confirm that an investigation ..."

    They chose to follow purdah, they just didn't say that they were doing so.
    Absolutely barking mad. The police forces in this country have lost their minds.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2022

    So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?

    Being indoors with people not from his household?
    No that's not what happened here, there was guidance around local election campaigning but not rules.

    On the same day Johnson went to the pub
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
    Indeed, I'm awaiting a Labour front bencher to say "ambushed with a curry" or something similar.
    Pippa Crerar was on the Sky News paper review the other night, and she played the "it was only a one off, it was a mistake" card, which was interesting as it said to me that she thought Starmer had broken the law.

    Whether Labour go down that route, I don't know.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,157
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    From the Durham Police Tweet that CHB linked to "... now, following the conclusion of the pre-election period, we can confirm that an investigation ..."

    They chose to follow purdah, they just didn't say that they were doing so.
    Absolutely barking mad. The police forces in this country have lost their minds.
    Hmmmm. You seem to believe the police have minds to lose.

    Have you recently emigrated to this country from somewhere the police do have minds? If so, where is it? Switzerland?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    MISTY said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    One person not respecting purdah is BoE governor Andrew Bailey.

    The tories had to go into yesterday with the economic forecast from hell resounding around the country.

    Luck of the draw. But good for him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    tlg86 said:

    ...on the other hand if Starmer does get a penalty and doesn't resign and the Tories then have the good sense to get rid of Johnson, then Labour are stuffed. Interesting times

    Have the Tories left it too late? "You're only doing it now because of the election results" etc. etc.

    The tricky thing for the Tories was, it wasn't clear who was going to get a fine. Had Sunak taken over a few months ago, would he have had to resign?
    Nah, people forget that kind of stuff pretty quickly. If they dump Boris the new leader will get a honeymoon period and Boris gets forgotten as yesterday's man.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    biggles said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Is “significant new information” police speak for “the same information but a lot of media pressure”?

    Not a fan of the press being a factor in whether something is investigated tbh.
    probably means they actually looked at the video this time. WTF do police do nowadays, they don't seem to investigate many crimes for sure, seem to be in politician's pockets.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?

    Being indoors with people not from his household?
    No he was allowed to do that at that time.

    The key thing they all had to be working, just stopping for takeaway.

    It may be they can suspect but not prove rule breaking.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The BBC are reporting that it was deliberately delayed until after the vote.
    Does that not warrant an investigation as to why in itself?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,428
    MrEd said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
    CHB’s post gets right to the heart of this - when you look at the “significant new evidence” there’s multiple problems, not just one.

    The risk of course for Labour is that this effectively decapitates the leadership as both SKS and Rayner are both at risk here - knowing Rayner’s type well *, I think she would brazen it out and say “if BJ doesn’t resign, why should I” and she’s not a QC to boot. For SKS, the problem is he’s a QC and expected to be whiter than white. Plus people don’t like a (perceived) hypocrite.

    The other thing is whether this turn of events now encourages the Momentum types to re-enter the Labour Party - it’s hard to see an obvious successor to SKS if he (and Rayner goes) - Reeves is odd and both she and Cooper would wind up the RW voters.
    Rebecca Long-Bailey, your time has come!

    *shudders*
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?

    Being indoors with people not from his household?
    No that's not what happened here, there was guidance around local election campaigning but not rules.

    On the same day Johnson went to the pub
    You definitely could not be indoors in a pub in April 2021
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
    Indeed, I'm awaiting a Labour front bencher to say "ambushed with a curry" or something similar.
    Pippa Crerar was on the Sky News paper review the other night, and she played the "it was only a one off, it was a mistake" card, which was interesting as it said to me that she thought Starmer had broken the law.

    Whether Labour go down that route, I don't know.
    The thing is he could have easily taken that position from the get-go. And come out straight away and said actually we looked back at this and it might have been a technical breach, rules were a bit confusing, I will take a FPN as I believe in taking responsibility for my actions. In contrast, the member opposite lied and lied and ducked responsibility and promoted a culture of constant breaking of the rules.

    A bit of a short term hit, but would be forgotten if Boris and rest of #10 starts racking up penalty points.

    Initially it seemed crazy Boris didn't take this position, but then we learned he oversaw consistent bending and breaking of the rules, rather than a single incident.
  • Fundamentally the investigation will answer:

    Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.

    I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,274

    I'm disappointed by the lack of intelligence by Labour on this. If I were trying to accuse an opponent of something publicly, as Labour did Boris over the parties, I would be thinking *very* hard if the same accusations could be used against me. And perhaps even getting legal advice on any events so you can get your story straight, and set the accusations accordingly.

    Instead they went all in, when it seems they might have been guilty of similar, or worse.

    Johnson's fall in the polls are partly due to partygate, and that was an utterly self-inflicted wound. I'd expect better from a top lawyer such as Starmer.

    Except if they are not guilty. You could consider that. I imagine there will be an investigation and nothing will be found. No fixed penalty. That may well make the story for Johnson worse, as the story then becomes one of a desperate smear to detract from his own wrong doing.
    They may not be guilty - I have no way of knowing. But the very fact the police have reopened it because new information has come to light is dodgy. They did not get their story straight, as we saw with the Rayner aspect of it. It may not fully stink yet, but it must be hard to say it isn't a bit wiffy.

    It's incompetence at best. How can we expect a big-brained lawyer such as Starmer to run the country if he cannot even tell the police who was at a political get-together (note, I avoid the word 'party') ?
    The Tory attack pamphlets now write themselves: picture of Sir Keir with Peroni in hand; caption 'If you can't trust him to follow lockdown rules...'
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,347
    tlg86 said:

    ...on the other hand if Starmer does get a penalty and doesn't resign and the Tories then have the good sense to get rid of Johnson, then Labour are stuffed. Interesting times

    Have the Tories left it too late? "You're only doing it now because of the election results" etc. etc.

    The tricky thing for the Tories was, it wasn't clear who was going to get a fine. Had Sunak taken over a few months ago, would he have had to resign?
    Well, Johnson hasn't, so I guess that's a no :wink:

    The problem for Starmer (if there does turn out to be anything in this) is that he called for Johnson to resign. Sunak did not.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,155

    If Starmer is fined, he will have to go, so this is a moment of significant peril for Labour. If a new leader comes in and starts making overtures to a discredited, marginalised left, all Johnson's Christmases will have come at once. Two big Ifs. But this is the Labour party!

    If Starmer is fined, he will have to go, so this is a moment of significant peril for Labour. If a new leader comes in and starts making overtures to a discredited, marginalised left, all Johnson's Christmases will have come at once. Two big Ifs. But this is the Labour party!

    It will be an Yvette Cooper coronation if Starmer goes. There is nobody else who could take over at this stage.
  • So which rules has KS broken? Anyone want to try and speculate?

    Being indoors with people not from his household?
    No that's not what happened here, there was guidance around local election campaigning but not rules.

    On the same day Johnson went to the pub
    You definitely could not be indoors in a pub in April 2021
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-celebrated-beer-indoors-26838978

    How strange.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?

    😀
    I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.

    It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
    Fair play to admit that.

    I don’t see how Durham doesn’t issue a FPN for both of them - it’s the safest route given the evidence suggests it’s at least in the grey area when it comes to breaking the rules and the hierarchy will know that any other outcome will see the Mail and Telegraph all over them and claiming that the Labour PCC influenced the decision.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,973
    edited May 2022
    Keir Starmer on the previous investigation: “Police have decided that it’s serious enough and flagrant enough for them to investigate. It’s the worst possible outcome for the Prime Minister.”

    “Frankly, some of his Cabinet need to look themselves in the mirror and ask themselves why they’re still supporting this Prime Minister. There’s a Metropolitan police investigation.”


    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1522561331907514370
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,020
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
    I think there is a somewhat bizarre rule of thumb within the Conservative Party that confirms Johnson's innocence (irrespective of the number of FPNs he receives) if Starmer is found guilty.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,032
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    I'm sure there are many on the way. The cake incident set a very low bar.
    The same low bar that was applied to those two women walking along holding coffees.

    Fuck them all - they voted for those stupid rules and now it is fantastic karma that they are the ones (I very much hope) who will be brought down by them.
    Or fantastic korma, in the case of SKS!
    Vinda-cation for Topping.
    Except the way this whole thing has played out is a load of (rogan) tosh imo. The Cops shouldn't have got retro involved in Johnson's (actual) Covid rule breaking and they shouldn't get retro involved in this allegation vs Starmer. A wasteful and inappropriate (since they were pressured) use of police resource.

    The contents of the full technicolour Sue Grey report will be more than ample to show that Boris Johnson lied blatantly and repeatedly to parliament. It should have been published straightway (no police angle) and if it had been we'd have had a swifter, better and more clarifying outcome.

    (I think maybe SG was uncomfortable with the responsibility of a PM's job being on the line with her report, hence the police referral. Understandable, but a shame imo.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    Yes, exactly right!
    It’s interesting how this has split PB though isn’t, many arguing its good an investigation wasn’t announced earlier to influence the election, like what happened to Clinton?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    Fundamentally the investigation will answer:

    Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.

    I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.

    Booze ordered separately from food. We had the whole idiotic working lunch with or without booze when it was the Tories and now we're about to do the same with labour. It will be the most trivial of discussions while the nation's economy burns yet here we are anyway.

    If Keir gets a FPN it's all over. I think he'd actually have to appeal it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    sarissa said:

    nico679 said:

    Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .

    Edinburgh ditto.
    Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1522560953107329024?cxt=HHwWgMC97dbHnKEqAAAA
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
    Carnyx, Foreskin is a bigoted red faced gammony arsewipe. He hates Scotland , a turnip of the highest order.
    The biggest and thickest windbag balloon to ever grace the site, one can only hope he has a puncture and F***s off.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
    Indeed, I'm awaiting a Labour front bencher to say "ambushed with a curry" or something similar.
    Pippa Crerar was on the Sky News paper review the other night, and she played the "it was only a one off, it was a mistake" card, which was interesting as it said to me that she thought Starmer had broken the law.

    Whether Labour go down that route, I don't know.
    The thing is he could have easily taken that position from the get-go. And come out straight away and said actually we looked back at this and it might have been a technical breach, rules were a bit confusing, I will take a FPN as I believe in taking responsibility for my actions. In contrast, the member opposite lied and lied and ducked responsibility and promoted a culture of constant breaking of the rules.

    A bit of a short term hit, but would be forgotten if Boris and rest of #10 starts racking up penalty points.

    Initially it seemed crazy Boris didn't take this position, but then we learned he oversaw consistent bending and breaking of the rules, rather than a single incident.
    Indeed. SKS is just "shit" at politics. He may be a decent man, but he's a shit politician.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
    If Starmer goes then Labour are screwed.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,702
    Hopefully the Durham investigation will be quick given it’s just one event .

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    On purdah, didn't Durham Police say they weren't going to re-open the investigation? Were they lying when they said that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,200
    kjh said:

    FPT @Nigelb I understand, thank you. Does that mean they are going to ban contraception that does the same thing, IVF, any research on fertilised eggs. Presumably so.

    Probably, yes.
    If laws like this are passed then we'll also see this sort of thing happening again.

    Pre-Roe, I was 8 yrs old. I came home from school to find my Mom lying in a puddle of blood. She was weak & asked me to call a neighbor. She was miscarrying, but the embryo would not abort. For 48 hours, she bled while doctors transfused blood, waiting. Abortions were illegal.
    https://twitter.com/DianaMiller5/status/1522278413096132609

    Such stories are not unusual. Remember it was death in Ireland only a decade back which changed the abortion debate.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Savita_Halappanavar
  • SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,834

    MrEd said:

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?

    😀
    I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.

    It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
    Why is it not a patch on partygate?

    Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?

    This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course. ;)

    (*) There may be more to come...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813

    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
    If Starmer goes then Labour are screwed.
    There chances of winning go through the roof
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
    Carnyx, Foreskin is a bigoted red faced gammony arsewipe. He hates Scotland , a turnip of the highest order.
    The biggest and thickest windbag balloon to ever grace the site, one can only hope he has a puncture and F***s off.
    Hello Malky, I was being polite ...

    Noit too much rain over here, just topping up the barrel for Mrs C's weekend gardening. Looks as if you had a lot more over there.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    edited May 2022
    This is the sort of question that is now going to be asked of Starmer. Either he looks as bad as Boris or he resigns. I personally can't see him resigning over this as he has insisted he has done nothing wrong.

    Guardian report of PMQ on 26 Jan.
    This is Starmer suggesting that the very fact of a police investigation is enough for Johnson to have to resign.
    I do hope he tells us why this doesn't apply to him.

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1522564033311825928
  • https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522564310563794947

    The quotes are endless and deeply uncomfortable for Starmer. Here he says that even the act of being investigated was “shameful.”

    Oof. This always seems to happen with these sorts of political scandals, one side starts throwing rocks at the other, then its soon found that the rock throwers were doing the same thing, and everyone gets dragged into the mud.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Somerset.
    THE Liberal Democrats are eight seats away from forming a majority with 40 seats still to be declared.
    Biblical.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    Yes, exactly right!
    It’s interesting how this has split PB though isn’t, many arguing its good an investigation wasn’t announced earlier to influence the election, like what happened to Clinton?
    All I want is for the normal processes to be followed irrespective of elections. If the police would normally announce an investigation or penalty notice or charge or whatever, then let them do that in the normal way without delaying or rushing to fit an election timetable.

    The Comey thing was a godawful mess, from what I've heard he was bounced into it by FBI leakers who actively wanted to harm Clinton's campaign but idk. I just hate the idea that keeping the voters in the dark just because there's an election on is an instinct some people have. That's a real authoritarian instinct that I cannot abide. People should be trusted to process information and act accordingly otherwise why do we even bother with democracy at all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,834
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    Tories out in Tunbridge Wells it seems.

    I'm disgusted.
    What a load of TWERPS (*)

    Tunbridge Wells and Erridge Railway Preservation Society.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,020

    MrEd said:

    Breaking:

    “Following receipt of significant new information...Durham Constabulary has reviewed that position and now...we can confirm that an investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 regulations relating to this gathering is now being conducted.”

    Starmer has to go if he accepts an FPN.

    This is fantastic news for Johnson however, because even if he gets a slew of FPNs the Starmer revelation takes out the sting. Johnson is further emboldened by the Gray Report having been discredited.

    This is superb work by Crosby, the Mail and the Telegraph. Big Dog is saved, Starmer falls!
    I think Sir Keir is finished. I can't believe Durham police would have revisited this incident if they weren't under significant pressure to do so from certain quarters. And if they succumbed to the pressure to revisit they will succumb to the pressure to come to a particular verdict.
    CHB’s post gets right to the heart of this - when you look at the “significant new evidence” there’s multiple problems, not just one.

    The risk of course for Labour is that this effectively decapitates the leadership as both SKS and Rayner are both at risk here - knowing Rayner’s type well *, I think she would brazen it out and say “if BJ doesn’t resign, why should I” and she’s not a QC to boot. For SKS, the problem is he’s a QC and expected to be whiter than white. Plus people don’t like a (perceived) hypocrite.

    The other thing is whether this turn of events now encourages the Momentum types to re-enter the Labour Party - it’s hard to see an obvious successor to SKS if he (and Rayner goes) - Reeves is odd and both she and Cooper would wind up the RW voters.
    Rebecca Long-Bailey, your time has come!

    *shudders*
    That might be the long way forward, Labour after a century gives the opposition to the Tories mantle back to the LDs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813
    murali_s said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Significant new information that emerged:

    🍺 misleading account of guest list and growing size

    📸 picture of Met officers at gathering

    🥘 £200 order - not including beer

    👁‍🗨 witnesses came forward to say they were not contacted

    🤷🏻‍♂️ misleading claims nothing else was open

    Well, if that's true then it's squeaky bum time for Starmer and Labour.

    It's the cover-up that gets you.
    Literally copying everything the Tories did wrong on this. The statements being made by Labour politicians right now are almost identical to what the Tories were.
    Indeed, I'm awaiting a Labour front bencher to say "ambushed with a curry" or something similar.
    Pippa Crerar was on the Sky News paper review the other night, and she played the "it was only a one off, it was a mistake" card, which was interesting as it said to me that she thought Starmer had broken the law.

    Whether Labour go down that route, I don't know.
    The thing is he could have easily taken that position from the get-go. And come out straight away and said actually we looked back at this and it might have been a technical breach, rules were a bit confusing, I will take a FPN as I believe in taking responsibility for my actions. In contrast, the member opposite lied and lied and ducked responsibility and promoted a culture of constant breaking of the rules.

    A bit of a short term hit, but would be forgotten if Boris and rest of #10 starts racking up penalty points.

    Initially it seemed crazy Boris didn't take this position, but then we learned he oversaw consistent bending and breaking of the rules, rather than a single incident.
    Indeed. SKS is just "shit" at politics. He may be a decent man, but he's a shit politician.
    Running away from press at Carlisle railway station refusing to comment

    As with everything in SKS s leadership going down the Boris line rather than whats right
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,274
    tlg86 said:

    On purdah, didn't Durham Police say they weren't going to re-open the investigation? Were they lying when they said that?

    Apparently the revelation that Angela Rayner was present has given a whole new dimension to it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/06/keir-starmer-faces-police-investigation-over-lockdown-breach-claims-beer
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,076
    Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
    Not so much your post, just your rather more extreme Anglophobe partner in crime.
    Oh, so you think it's a crime to be pro independence? Who are you, an Epping Tory?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,728
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The implication the police are giving is that they are now a political police force. Only reason for purdah.
    To be fair, they are just following the lead of the Met.
    But surely if we've learnt anything over the last few years, it's that any competent police force should be doing the opposite of the Met - not taking its lead from them!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Party time for the LibDems on a “plague on both their houses” ticket perhaps. And the good news is that there’s so few LibDems they were probably in their own bubble and incapable of breaking the rules.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,076
    It is the Sir John Curtis moment on the BBC for PNS.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878
    Douglas Ross and Keir Starmer.

    Heros to zeros.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,840
    Heathener said:

    p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.

    The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.

    And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.

    There really is no comparison. Sky have knocked the Beeb out of the park. The BBC coverage is absolutely hopeless.

    Sky are on to the developing story: the collapsing Blue Wall in the south. The Tories are losing councils all over the shop SE of a line between the Wash and the Solent.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,020
    MaxPB said:

    Fundamentally the investigation will answer:

    Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.

    I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.

    Booze ordered separately from food. We had the whole idiotic working lunch with or without booze when it was the Tories and now we're about to do the same with labour. It will be the most trivial of discussions while the nation's economy burns yet here we are anyway.

    If Keir gets a FPN it's all over. I think he'd actually have to appeal it.
    Agreed, the whole thing is a drop in the ocean compared to Johnson's misbehaviour, but Starmer staked the house on Johnson having to resign, so appeal the FPN, or go he must.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022

    Fundamentally the investigation will answer:

    Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.

    I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.

    Spot on. Let’s see what happens. Sometimes people welcome investigations to clear things up and shut people up. Or down. Maybe up sounds politer.

    “The Tories begged for an investigation to confirm the truth. Now they know. Me and my team exonerated.”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813
    edited May 2022
    National Projected Share from Sir John Curtice

    Lab 35
    Con 30
    Ld 19

    Brilliant for LDS OK for LAB Bad for CON
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    DavidL said:

    Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.

    Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    DavidL said:

    Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.

    Investigating a politician is not political. Laws apply to all of us.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,076
    edited May 2022
    Labour 35
    Tories 30
    LD 19
    Others 16

    Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories.
    Much, much better for Lib Dems.
    But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522564310563794947

    The quotes are endless and deeply uncomfortable for Starmer. Here he says that even the act of being investigated was “shameful.”

    Oof. This always seems to happen with these sorts of political scandals, one side starts throwing rocks at the other, then its soon found that the rock throwers were doing the same thing, and everyone gets dragged into the mud.

    I try to live my (outside of internet blogs) as not being over critcial of anything as I muck up all the time. I am a great believer in Karma. SKS really didn't need to go all in on Partygate like he did, the press were doing that for him, and now it has come back to haunt him. I make it a 90% chance he gets a FPN as the police would not have annouced they were investigating without pretty conclusive evidence.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scottish parties so far, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Grn +150%
    SLD +70%
    SLab + 17%
    SNP -2%
    Ind -13%
    SCon -21%

    Interesting the independents are going down so much - normally you'd expect them to be stable. I wonder if it is because so many are tulchan Tories?
    Probably. Despite the label “Independent”, local people know full-well what party these people are allied with. It is not always Con (eg Orkney or Shetland). When it is Con, these individuals will be punished just like their braver fellow-travellers.
    Nothing sinister about SNP types. Nope, nothing sinister at all!
    But we are talking about the voters doing the flagellating. And they are not SNP voters.
    Carnyx, Foreskin is a bigoted red faced gammony arsewipe. He hates Scotland , a turnip of the highest order.
    The biggest and thickest windbag balloon to ever grace the site, one can only hope he has a puncture and F***s off.
    +1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,157
    AlistairM said:

    Farooq said:

    Good to see that the Met Police weren't the only ones respecting purdah, and that Durham Police were doing the same.

    The question is now if they will follow the precedence set by the Met and issue a retrospective FPN. Had the Met not done so, they never would have I expect, but they'll be under immense pressure from both directions now.

    Overall the local election results seem to be summable in one word: "Meh".

    There is no purdah in the criminal justice system. If Durham were delaying this til polls were closed then fuck them too.
    Absolutely crazy if police are protecting politicians until after the people have had their say.
    The BBC are reporting that it was deliberately delayed until after the vote.
    Does that not warrant an investigation as to why in itself?
    The police have a problem.

    During the New Labour years, the Senior Management Team went er... native. Politically. They were very tied in with Tony. Hence the bizarre investigations into tree huggers and Farthers for Justice - which were conducted like infiltrating a terrorist group. And seem to have been illegal - they included attempt to coerce groups into taking extreme and illegal action.

    We then move onto the Damien Greene comedy - when an opposition politicians was arrested for receiving leaks. The police claimed that they didn't even know what they were searching for - they'd been told that the documents were too secret for them to know about! So they were arresting people on the say so of the Cabinet Secretary - no evidence actually required.....

    When Cameron came into No. 10 - ACPO paid a visit. To present a bizarre series of demands - including blocking enquiries into Hillsborough and other events. Cameron gave them the brush off. Suddenly after a long, long time when they got whatever they wanted from No. 10.....

    At this point some people in the police SMT lost their minds and started claiming that there was an anti-police agenda.

    Then Plebgate....

    A senior police officer locked himself in his car as one of his men was stabbed to death in front of him... And all the other scandals.

    What all of this means is that the police are terrified that the politicians are not "pro-police". Which actually means not covering for the police fucks up, any more.

    So they are trying to be non-political in an incredibly exaggerated way.

    Being the police, they fucking that up, as well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,797
    Calder Valley constituency aggregate LE result (chg wet 2021):

    Lab 43.6 (+8.4)
    Con 35.9 (-2.8)
    LD 11.7 (+0.2)
    Grn 8.3 (+0.4)
    Others 0.5 (-6.0) - mainly Ind

    Lab gain most votes in Calder Valley
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539

    Somerset.
    THE Liberal Democrats are eight seats away from forming a majority with 40 seats still to be declared.
    Biblical.

    POlitical equivalent of the 1607 tsunami.*

    *Alleged; more like a storm surge it seems.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    I think @Heathener will win his bet:

    One is in Hoe Valley, where Andy Caulfied has comfortably held the seat for the Lib Dems with 1,506 votes.

    Last time, the Lib Dems got 1,096 votes in Hoe Valley.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,200
    biggles said:

    Party time for the LibDems on a “plague on both their houses” ticket perhaps. And the good news is that there’s so few LibDems they were probably in their own bubble and incapable of breaking the rules.

    And 'King Edward' Davey is so unexciting it's unlikely anyone was filming him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,840
    DavidL said:

    Labour 35
    Tories 30
    LD 19
    Others 16

    Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories.
    Much, much better for Lib Dems.
    But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.

    Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,476

    MrEd said:

    By Election in Holborn and St Pancras?

    Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?

    😀
    I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.

    It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
    Why is it not a patch on partygate?

    Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?

    This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course. ;)

    (*) There may be more to come...
    Carrie lives in no. 11.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,076
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.

    Hmm, problem with that is it means that politicians can commit offences without being investigated. LIke fiddling expenses without being jailed etc. But some did get jailed.

    No, because if I was accused of such a breach the police would not have investigated that either if it was after the fact. Politicians should be treated the same as the rest of us, not differently.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813

    Heathener said:

    p.s. the BBC are terrible. Absolutely godawful. I mean, compared to Sky for example who have fizz and are light years ahead with results.

    The Beeb feel that as custodians of the nation's money they shouldn't broadcast speculative results before they're confirmed. Which is fine in theory but crap in practice. Apart from a few occasions, when a party worker actually at the count tells you they've won or lost it's a fair bet that's it's correct.

    And I'm afraid it's probably time dear old John Curtice was retired off.

    There really is no comparison. Sky have knocked the Beeb out of the park. The BBC coverage is absolutely hopeless.

    Sky are on to the developing story: the collapsing Blue Wall in the south. The Tories are losing councils all over the shop SE of a line between the Wash and the Solent.
    Trivia BBC just released the much more important PNS
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,702
    I

    Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.

    I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.

    Hang on, what about Reeves? Or has she already had her Granita moment with Phillipson?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BBC Jockland showing their true colours: currently showing the SNP in third place, despite having by far the most councillors at 219 and the most net gains at +11
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,134
    biggles said:

    Party time for the LibDems on a “plague on both their houses” ticket perhaps. And the good news is that there’s so few LibDems they were probably in their own bubble and incapable of breaking the rules.

    I'm not sure that's quite right. From a Labour high in 2018, they are +43 as it stands, and the LDs are +76 (from "not a high" in 2018). That looks awfully like "whoever is best placed to beat the Tory" voting, rather than "a plague on both their houses". The seats with a strong Green showing should *either* worry Labour, or at least get them thinking about how to squeeze that vote at the GE.

    You only have to look at seats like this to see what happens when the "not the Tory" vote can't decide who to back.

    Nine Elms (Wandsworth) election result:

    Conservative WINS (X2).

    Con: 39.7%
    Lab: 29.5%
    LDem: 27.0%
    Grn: 3.8%

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1522360731760480257
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,020

    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    If Keir Starmer broke the rules, he should resign.

    Boris Johnson broke the rules. He should resign.

    It really is that simple.

    Yes, but do you think Keir will actually resign though? I don't and just like the Tories the Labour front bench will be too weak to push him out.
    I think Starmer would resign if given a FPN . I can’t see it’s possible to have been so critical of Johnson and remain .
    If Starmer goes then Labour are screwed.
    If Starmer gets an FPN Labour are screwed.

    Johnson wins either way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2022

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522564310563794947

    The quotes are endless and deeply uncomfortable for Starmer. Here he says that even the act of being investigated was “shameful.”

    Oof. This always seems to happen with these sorts of political scandals, one side starts throwing rocks at the other, then its soon found that the rock throwers were doing the same thing, and everyone gets dragged into the mud.

    I try to live my (outside of internet blogs) as not being over critcial of anything as I muck up all the time. I am a great believer in Karma. SKS really didn't need to go all in on Partygate like he did, the press were doing that for him, and now it has come back to haunt him. I make it a 90% chance he gets a FPN as the police would not have annouced they were investigating without pretty conclusive evidence.
    A crafty politician would have left themselves an out i.e. when Boris story broke said something like I kept saying the rules were really confusing and random and not helpful, the fact the people making them don't seem to know what was and wasn't within in the rules prove this. I think that everybody over the past 2 years have at some point wondered if what they were doing was definitely within them. But the fact the PM actively encouraged such behaviour goes way beyond this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,840

    MaxPB said:

    Fundamentally the investigation will answer:

    Was what they were doing work-related and necessary as part of work. Labour thinks it was.

    I don't see how you can convincingly prove otherwise unless you get people literally inside saying we weren't working.

    Booze ordered separately from food. We had the whole idiotic working lunch with or without booze when it was the Tories and now we're about to do the same with labour. It will be the most trivial of discussions while the nation's economy burns yet here we are anyway.

    If Keir gets a FPN it's all over. I think he'd actually have to appeal it.
    Agreed, the whole thing is a drop in the ocean compared to Johnson's misbehaviour, but Starmer staked the house on Johnson having to resign, so appeal the FPN, or go he must.
    If Starmer resigns, he looks honourable compared to the weaselling clinger-on Bozzatron.

    Reeves takes over and will be popular.

    Could well work out quite nicely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    DavidL said:

    Labour 35
    Tories 30
    LD 19
    Others 16

    Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories.
    Much, much better for Lib Dems.
    But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.

    Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
    A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
This discussion has been closed.