Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
Well yes, exactly. I made this point earlier, but Mexican is indulging in his usual eeyoreish hyperbole on this matter.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
Someone who lived through the pandemic in monastic solitude.
I do not seek power for myself, but if my country calls me...
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
A reliable rule of thumb is that approx one third of SLab voters are pro-independence, one third are diehard Unionists, and a third are fairly neutral/swing voters on the constitutional question. They’re mixed up kids.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
We know the answer to that one. He doesn't.
Question is whether Stamer going would shame Conservative MPs into chucking Big Dog down the well.
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
A reliable rule of thumb is that approx one third of SLab voters are pro-independence, one third are diehard Unionists, and a third are fairly neutral/swing voters on the constitutional question. They’re mixed up kids.
If Keir is toppled somehow, then depending on how he is toppled, I’d suggest it would be a net positive for Labour.
He has done the hard and thankless work of ridding the party of the loony left and should now hand over to someone who looks like they care about winning elections.
Smith to Blair
Starmer to ????
From what I've seen, I really rate Streeting but I still think Starmer has a way to go yet. Unfortunately, Streeting's penis probably rules him out. I think the Labour party is desperate to choose a woman.
They don't seem to, you know, actually vote for them in leadership elections though.....
Undeniably true. I just think the (self imposed) pressure to have a female leader will be overwhelming.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
We know the answer to that one. He doesn't.
Question is whether Stamer going would shame Conservative MPs into chucking Big Dog down the well.
Wonder when we'll get an update from the Met.
When this was all kicking off in January and all the speculation was about Boris going, I wonder if anyone could have predicted that this might end with both Sunak and Starmer getting fined too?
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Maybe you should reflect on how you tried to close my comments down which seem that they were very salient
Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories. Much, much better for Lib Dems. But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.
Curtains and Rasher might have to revise their unwise hot takes.
A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
Agree with the first (a small Con win being likely) but not the second. IMO ditching Johnson could well damage the Cons GE prospects. I think the leave voters he will keep in the Con column are more important to their FPTP seat tally than those who'll be repelled by him to abstain or vote against.
So any news on the pilsner and pasanda party? The shandy and shashlik shindig? The Carling and korma craic? The Beck’s and bhoona bash? The Moretti and masala mash up? The Newcastle Brown and naan knees up? The Fosters and phal festivities? (That’s more than enough now, Ed.)
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought he was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
Don't you want to wait to see whether he's innocent first?
So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
We can plug these results into Crosby's SWINGBACKULATOR.
Somerset is officially a bloodbath for the Tories . The Lib Dems are doing extremely well .
Edinburgh ditto.
Partchy. Just noticed Colinton/Fairmilehead: just dumped a Tory for a SNP councillor, no LDs elected at all as LD vote not enough to displace a somewhat reduced SNP vote. Slkightly puzzling as lots of owneroccupier housing IIRC.
Very odd. SNP vote down 3 points but gain a councillor. Without digging through the details (which are probably not available yet) I assume that tons of SLab voters voted SNP 2nd pref, or at least a pref ahead of SCon.
I was brought up in the neighbouring area and know both Colinton and Fairmilehead very well. Used to be solid Tory back in the 80s.
Mm, yes, it is pretty much bungalowland. And probably not enough Greens to make a difference.
But as any fule sa Labour voters are always Unionist. (Not really.)
A reliable rule of thumb is that approx one third of SLab voters are pro-independence, one third are diehard Unionists, and a third are fairly neutral/swing voters on the constitutional question. They’re mixed up kids.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Maybe you should reflect on how you tried to close my comments down which seem that they were very salient
No, because no actual evidence was adduced by the Mail, or your breathless updates.
I would suggest you wait for further development in the story.
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
We can plug these results into Crosby's SWINGBACKULATOR.
Crosby was wrong on lots of things, but he was the swingback king. A lesson worth learning.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
I said "surrounding buildings".
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
They are not contiguous as residential spaces. The No. 10 flat and the No. 11 flat are separate to each other and separate to the office spaces.
I think you're being a little silly now. They are next door to each other, and involved in the same business. What BJ and the others did was wrong (minorly, IMO), but I can't see how that excuses the stupid mess SKS and Labour had with their meeting or their reaction to it.
Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
Sorry this is the correct link for the 1985 local election
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me....
Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
The thing is, a culture war is not actually that difficult to defend in the UK.
Unlike the US the British electorate are largely moderate and do not have passionately angry views on abortion and race.
Keir has played his culture hand quite badly, in my view, bordering on incompetence.
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
Mr Johnson said that?! I seem to remember hin going on at great length about how important it was to observe the rules.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
We know the answer to that one. He doesn't.
Question is whether Stamer going would shame Conservative MPs into chucking Big Dog down the well.
Wonder when we'll get an update from the Met.
When this was all kicking off in January and all the speculation was about Boris going, I wonder if anyone could have predicted that this might end with both Sunak and Starmer getting fined too?
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me....
Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
Yes, it’s very interesting.
Cakegate seems pretty excusable even my my Cato-esque standards, at least for the PM. (Not so for non working attendees like Carrie and Lulu Lytle).
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me, those are the ones that really seem to show that rules were not deemed to apply to them. I don't particularly care whether Johnson was present, if he was aware of them (and it's hard to believe he was not).
He doesn’t have to go. What will happen if he doesn’t? Sod all.
Well, if he doesn't (and he receives an FPN) I shall give him a very hard stare should I ever meet him. That's hardly sod all
(If he does happen to become next PM, though, I'll forgive him in a heartbeat. That would be a nice betting outcome)
Maybe Durham police read my posts yesterday about what the rules were at the time. A lot of people, including an ex-DPP, seemed confused about them at the time.
I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought he was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
Don't you want to wait to see whether he's innocent first?
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
I said "surrounding buildings".
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
They are not contiguous as residential spaces. The No. 10 flat and the No. 11 flat are separate to each other and separate to the office spaces.
I think you're being a little silly now. They are next door to each other, and involved in the same business. What BJ and the others did was wrong (minorly, IMO), but I can't see how that excuses the stupid mess SKS and Labour had with their meeting or their reaction to it.
Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
I am absolutely unconvinced that Lulu Lytle has any business at the cake unveiling despite Number 11 being very close.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
So predictions for Starmers equivalent of the Edstone?
Tempting though it is I resolve to remain consistent on this. The Met investigation of Parygate should never have happeed. Ms Gray's investigation certainly and the relevaant committees of the HoC, but not the police who should stay out of politics. Durham police should have done the same.
Of course it should have happened. The police are there to investigate and uphold the law. That is the same whether the accused are politicians or plebs.
Lots of people on this forum, myself included have admitted breaking some of the lockdown laws on occasion. Should we all be investigated too?
We didn't vote for or impose the rules.
Lawmakers should be held to a higher standard.
If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.
It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.
I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
I said at the time of Barnard Castle that it was an opportunity for Keir Starmer to demonstrate some leadership by concentrating on encouraging people to continue to follow the rules, rather than to complain that Cummings breaking them would encourage others to do likewise.
Ultimately he has flunked the test of leadership.
It's possible, of course, that Starmer has been proven right. No transgressions by Starmer (that we know of) pre-Barnard Castle. Possible transgression afterwards
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
Then the speculation about Lab 35, ld 19, others 16 ganging up on Tories in general election can begin. My gut feeling, at 1425 with it still not over, if this was General election night, it would by a right messy picture, but a hung Parliament with Boris biggest party.
But of course, tactical voting can transform such a thing.
I was forecasting 35/32/16 so a fair way out
Presumably you know the Projected National Share for Lab/Con in 2018 was 35/35
Curtis actually said just now "Lab is at same level as Corbyn and there is no evidence SKS on LE2022 numbers that he can attract additional voters that Corbyn couldnt as he said he could"
[sigh]
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 was bloody good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. Its not Captain hindsight electionolgy today, they told us this last week labour don’t have to blitz it for a good night. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for on a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world. Though I appreciate some people just got more partisan views than others and can’t acknowledge all the truth sometimes.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress like in Dudley, they need to be blitzing it” Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. Same in Peterborough. Etc. Etc.
2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
We are going to have a spat! 😃 as you attempt to spin and twist the psephological truth.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought he was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
Don't you want to wait to see whether he's innocent first?
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
An investigation certainly does not equal guilt.
But as others have pointed out, that wasn't SKS's position when Johnson was being investigated.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
I can confirm I have hacked Petes account!!
You have when I demand Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long Bailey take over...
It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Maybe you should reflect on how you tried to close my comments down which seem that they were very salient
No, because no actual evidence was adduced by the Mail, or your breathless updates.
I would suggest you wait for further development in the story.
My commentary has always been the same standards should apply to Durham and the MET and the new evidence considered
I have not said Starmer and Rayner are guilty and may well be absolved
However, you attempted to close down the debate and you were wrong to do so
Didn’t we have a few posters on here saying Beergate was not a big issue and voters would see through it?
😀
I was one of them and it still doesn't look a patch on Partygate, but if he gets an FPN he has to go.
It is clever from the Conservatives/Mail/Telegraph because ironically it means Johnson can now survive Partygate even if Starmer resigns.
Why is it not a patch on partygate?
Wasn't the FPN part of partygate (*) a few people who work or live in No.10 or the surrounding buildings getting together for a short time in No. 10?
This was people from all over the country getting together inside a building late at night. From a virus-spreading aspect, it looks much worse. All IMO, of course.
(*) There may be more to come...
Carrie lives in no. 11.
I said "surrounding buildings".
Besides, the two are virtually contiguous as a workplace, aren't they? People would have been going between them all the time during Covid.
They are not contiguous as residential spaces. The No. 10 flat and the No. 11 flat are separate to each other and separate to the office spaces.
I think you're being a little silly now. They are next door to each other, and involved in the same business. What BJ and the others did was wrong (minorly, IMO), but I can't see how that excuses the stupid mess SKS and Labour had with their meeting or their reaction to it.
Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
I am absolutely unconvinced that Lulu Lytle has any business at the cake unveiling despite Number 11 being very close.
You are typically weird about this.
"typically weird" ?
Gee, thanks.
I await the list of people who were at the Labour do, so you can proclaim who should and should not have been there.
I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
Interesting report from the Unionist frontline. The Orange rather than Sioux kind of lodge, I take it?
Just watching election night 2015, what a glorious night that was. Months of campaigning and watching the Labour and Lib Dems self destruct without realising it all coming to fruition. Don't think I'll ever experience anything like it again.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
An investigation certainly does not equal guilt.
But as others have pointed out, that wasn't SKS's position when Johnson was being investigated.
This is true, but if - BIG IF - Keir is exonerated, you can put this down to political rhetoric. Nobody will notice or care.
Anyway, by the time Met decided to investigate it was already obvious Boris was guilty as hell.
Getting way ahead of myself, but ... If Starmer is fined, Rayner will be too, so they'd both have to quit. There are not enough Socialist Campaign Group MPs to deliver a far-left leadership candidate, so who stands? My guess would be Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson, Wes Streeting and, possibly, Yvette Cooper. The membership is very different to what it was even in 2020, so who would win is hard to call. I think it would come down to Streeting v Phillipson.
I’d go for Bridget Phillipson . I think she’s done very well over the last few years .
Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
Phillip Bridgetson, then ?
One of the Bridgertons, maybe? I hear they're quite popular...
Looked like a video game to me, FWIW. And the change of the angel of view was way to fast to have been from 100km away - the camera would have had to be on an aerial platform quite close to the vessel.
Doesn't mean the ship hasn't been hit, but the footage was fake.
I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.
Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.
Outrageous. Change your mind? Listen to reasoned argument? Where will it end?
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
It works for the Republicans.
The way the US voting system works - and who controls it - is what works for the Republicans.
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me....
Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
Alphabetically. Cakegate comes before Partygate or Drinksgate (or is that Gardengate?)
That's why everyone's pissed that Durham have been lagging on Beergate. If it was only Currygate it would be ok for it to come after Cakegate.
Suspect some of the excitable comments about vote share may be ignoring how well the LibDems have done as tactical voting takes hold.
Labour-LibDem on 54% is a terrific anti-tory vote.
Look at the way Surrey and Somerset are turning yellow. Wow.
Yes, the big story is tactical voting returning in a BIG way. Nightmare scenario for the Tories.
Anti-Tory tactical voting IS the big hope for the GE. If it takes hold it should be enough to kick them out. My confidence has dimmed a notch however. I was hoping to see a stronger Labour performance yesterday in those parts of the country we are busting a gut to "reconnect" with.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
Barry country? And Potter?
No idea.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Just watching election night 2015, what a glorious night that was. Months of campaigning and watching the Labour and Lib Dems self destruct without realising it all coming to fruition. Don't think I'll ever experience anything like it again.
My wish yesterday - all of which i said was stretch, was:
- Labour to take Westminster - DONE - Ukraine to degrade Black Sea fleet - DONE - Alliance to come second in NI - Pending?
Haha.
I think it's very plain the DUP will come second.
1 result so far. For the Alliance. NI has been stuck in a death knell of religious bigotry for over a century. It would be beyond wonderful if the people there said enough.
I have just heard that Durham Police are to investigate Starmer over beergate and I would just comment to all those who criticised me for commenting on it and relating information as it was placed in the media that they should reflect on those attacks
I am not vindictive but do believe the law should be applied equally whether it is in Durham or the Met
You have been proven correct. If Starmer gets an FPN (eating humble pie here for the millionth time) he has to resign. I am conflicted in that he should perhaps go on news of the investigation, he is damaged beyond repair. Wakefield is lost!
All of Johnson's future FPNs are now neutralised and he does not now need to go. Big Dog is saved BigG.
A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
The optics look horrendous.
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
Barry country? And Potter?
No idea.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Have a look at nls.uk if you haven't - the online maps and local directories sections are superb.
SKS didn't make the rules, so he can break the rules?
If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.
For me: - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said. - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might. - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me, those are the ones that really seem to show that rules were not deemed to apply to them. I don't particularly care whether Johnson was present, if he was aware of them (and it's hard to believe he was not).
He doesn’t have to go. What will happen if he doesn’t? Sod all.
You're assuming Starmer possesses the brass neck to brazen it out. It would be embarrassing to watch him self immolate.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
Interesting report from the Unionist frontline. The Orange rather than Sioux kind of lodge, I take it?
Yes, replete with pictures of William and commemorating the Battle of the Boyne. It reminded me of my favourite scene in Trainspotting 2.
That Tory number in the projected vote share is horrific.
After 12 years in power that's about right, the Tories should be getting thumped in local elections. Yet Labour are nowhere, 35% is poor. The Tories were way ahead at this stage pre-2010 and they didn't win a majority.
Labour won't win a majority. That's always been clear. The issue is whether the Tories retain one. What they got yesterday is close to what they got just before May resigned. And this time there is no UKIP/Reform vote to squeeze in a subsequent GE. It seems pretty clear to me that there is a large, solid and motivated anti-Tory vote, and the Tories have a huge job on their hands to turn that around.
The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.
All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.
I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .
But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.
The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
Barry country? And Potter?
No idea.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Comments
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/01/23/analysing-labour-lib-dem-tactical-voting-since-1983/
Ultimately it comes down to the Tory share.
Con 14 -1
SNP 9 nc
Ind 7 -1
LD 3 +1
Grn 1 +1
18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
Question is whether Stamer going would shame Conservative MPs into chucking Big Dog down the well.
Wonder when we'll get an update from the Met.
But yes. It could make all the difference in getting a change of government, from a rather long way behind position.
Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) has topped the poll in Strangford.
Alex Easton (Ind Unionist) has topped the poll within North Down.
Deirdre Hargey (SF) has topped the poll in Belfast South.
More to follow.
Con 32% Lab 39%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20120116.british-unionist-party-take-seat-tories-north-lanarkshire/
You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.
It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
The shandy and shashlik shindig?
The Carling and korma craic?
The Beck’s and bhoona bash?
The Moretti and masala mash up?
The Newcastle Brown and naan knees up?
The Fosters and phal festivities?
(That’s more than enough now, Ed.)
SHOCKED
Also, how has SKS shot his own foot so so badly? You think you can trust his judgement going forward?
Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
We can plug these results into Crosby's SWINGBACKULATOR.
I would suggest you wait for further development in the story.
And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.
Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
For The Greater Good.
Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Unlike the US the British electorate are largely moderate and do not have passionately angry views on abortion and race.
Keir has played his culture hand quite badly, in my view, bordering on incompetence.
Cakegate seems pretty excusable even my my Cato-esque standards, at least for the PM.
(Not so for non working attendees like Carrie and Lulu Lytle).
Not that I have all the info of course.
(If he does happen to become next PM, though, I'll forgive him in a heartbeat. That would be a nice betting outcome)
SNP +17
SLD +13
SLab +11
Grn +10
Ind -14
SCon -37
Clear the way for Dickie DiDo Burgon!
You are typically weird about this.
Brilliant. That’s woken me up into action.
But as others have pointed out, that wasn't SKS's position when Johnson was being investigated.
It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
I have not said Starmer and Rayner are guilty and may well be absolved
However, you attempted to close down the debate and you were wrong to do so
Gee, thanks.
I await the list of people who were at the Labour do, so you can proclaim who should and should not have been there.
And BTW, I said what BJ and co. did was wrong.
Which probably makes DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 2.
Anyway, by the time Met decided to investigate it was already obvious Boris was guilty as hell.
And the change of the angel of view was way to fast to have been from 100km away - the camera would have had to be on an aerial platform quite close to the vessel.
Doesn't mean the ship hasn't been hit, but the footage was fake.
That's why everyone's pissed that Durham have been lagging on Beergate. If it was only Currygate it would be ok for it to come after Cakegate.
I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
Bad news: No new houses anywhere. Build them somewhere else, like France, instead.
Presently biggest gainers Alliance and TUV not SF
I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.
Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
It would be embarrassing to watch him self immolate.
Hung Parliament
Conservatives 278
Labour 271
SNP 50
LDs 28
278 conservative - 271 labour - 50 SNP - 28 lib dem - 23 other
SNP gain Dundee from NOC